We will see, the AI will be able to completely replace humans in just about any task you can imagine in the future, what do you expect people to do?
Yep, that was left over from the British Empire and it continued under the EU. The U.K. transitioned to the business and financial hub of the EU as time went on. How is it that the EU’s fault? Germany made shrewd labor and economic legislation to encouraged more skilled workers and manufacturing. What did the U.K. do when it transitioned fron a manufacturing economy to a more services? Same thing as America, left those folks behind because they didnt transition to relevant skills. Thrive? Where’s the catalyst? Merely leaving the EU doesn’t do anything to address that. Having a plan that involves investing in relevant skills, infrastructure, and education is what will turn the U.K. around.
i'm not blaming these eu countries for selling their great products to uk consumers at all. i'm only stating that from an economic standpoint, the uk has less to lose than those countries do. if they were ever to leave, the next day they would be able to sign trade agreements with 200 countries, free from the need of brussels' or any eu capitol's approval. the fallout for cable (pound sterling) would only help them be more competitive w/ their exports as well. i'm basically saying that free from the eu's debt nightmare, at least they have a chance. with them there is no doubt they are going to sink in sync
Right... but why do you assume the U.K. has more leverage as a smaller entity? I mean Japan and the EU signed a huge free trade deal in 2018 that is being rolled out now. Why would U.K. as a smaller entity get the same deal as the EU? Scale and size matters. It’s like saying the state of New York would get better deals without the heft of the US.
the trade deal with japan centers on cheaper cars for the eu and wine/cheese to japan (lol). no really though, what i'm saying in all these posts is that what the eu members + brussels do has practically never had the uk's interests in mind going back 40yrs now. and w/ respect to new trade deals post (an unlikely) brexit, these things are already drafted in advance and sitting on desks ready to be pushed on politicians for their vote. just like the ecj's ruling in december "allowing" the uk to unilaterally revoke article fitty -- the prepared draft stemming from that has been sitting in may's hand ready to throw down like a royal flush when the time comes (next week?) if by some miracle the uk was ever allowed to leave hotel merkelfornia, there really would be 200 countries lined up to schedule meetings and gain access to an overall wealthy 66M consumer base lastly i want to mention something about your state of NY mention. it's not a good analogy here b/c it's a state that actually produces 5% of US gdp with 8% of US population, 35th in growth rate, and i believe the 2nd largest budget shortfall after CA. it is a drain on the US, while the eu is a drain on the uk
LOL wow. This has happened to the US and every other major power too over that time period because the world has globalized and it's harder for massive economics to grow at the same pace over time. China is already experiencing it as well too. It has nothing to do with joining the EU. There is some terrible economics in this thread.
The UK has been trying to negotiate trade deals for the last year. https://www.theguardian.com/busines...xit-trade-deal-with-fiji-and-papua-new-guinea They have succceeded with countries like Fiji. Not so much with Japan, China, the US, etc. Here's just one of many examples of the US using their leverage: https://www.theguardian.com/politic...ss-to-uk-food-markets-after-brexit-trade-deal
WTF? Where do you get your info? https://simple.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_U.S._states_by_population 5.9% of population https://simple.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_U.S._states_by_GDP 8.1% of GDP What does a budget shortfall have to do with anything? All states run balanced budgets. NY is a donor state, meaning its taxpayers contribute more to the federal government than they get in return. They subsidize the US - 4th most per capita behind New Jersey, Connecticut, and North Dakota. https://www.moneytips.com/is-your-state-a-net-payer-or-a-net-taker/356
No it centers on “...The deal's headline is about scrapping duties on 97% and 99% of Japanese and European imports respectively.” Lol? What exactly are the U.K. interests? Seemed like being a financial and business hub worked out well for the U.K., not so much for those without relevant skills. Major already covered that.... the main economies aren’t lining up yet. What does a budget shortfall due to an aging population have to do with anything? The U.K. faces the exact same issue, all developed countries do. It’s not when the U.K. gets to be the business hub and financial hub of the EU....[/quote]
oh really? this did not happen to the biggest benefactor of the eu and euro, germany, for instance meanwhile uk annual real gdp % growth rose from '52 and peaked in '73, on a decline since then.
i am dead wrong on this. please accept my apology and excuse -- the last time i lived in the states the population was 250M there and i was still thinking of that!
Yep, polluting/low skilled manufacturing has been exported from developed to developing countries across the board. China’s manufacturing employment more than likely peaked several years ago.
the wine/cheese was an implied joke. you have brought up city of london needing the eu to sustain. the reality is that brussels stupidly insists to ban short-selling and this alone would kill london's financial markets. without short covering, once confidence tanks there is NO SUPPORT left below and you get a waterfall. regarding trade deals, as i mentioned above, during uncertainty it's hard to put pen to paper. but japan, south africa, norway, iceland for instance have already indicated their interest. there's also WTO terms to fall back on in the interim
Next week is going to be interesting. None of the votes appear likely to pass, except for the unconditional 2-week extension to April 12. Not one. But the default is still exiting the EU on April 12, 2019 with no deal. So if nothing passes, as expected, then that is what will happen. 21 days to go. Tick tock.
i really doubt it's going to happen. this has all been kabuki theatre from the start w/ brussels behind the curtain desperate to prevent a contagion of further defectors and germany desperate to keep as many solvent members in the union to buy their stuff and help foot the bill for piigs+ even last nite's unanimous vote by 27 members... hungary, italy, poland etc all [allegedly] on board! so maybe they eventually get to the 2nd referendumb, with the choices being either status quo OR may's "brexit" deal, which basically yields all sovereignty making uk a vassal state. at the end of the day, "there can be no democratic choice against the european treaties"
What do you think is likely to happen? What affirmative option do you believe the UK Parliament might support, aside from the unconditional two-week extension? As far as I can tell, nothing beyond that is likely to pass.
nothing new is likely to happen. this was obvious since may and olly robbins, both pro-remainers, were put in charge of making brexit happen. and now mp's en masse voting against their constituents. the campaign to delay and frustrate will just go on. meanwhile the eu cummission can see the writing on the wall and are just delaying for themselves as well. they're holding a bag of **** in ~45% of eurozone debt that nobody wants to buy and they can't roll over. draghi is just hoping to make it thru the summer so he can retire and pass this bag-o-crap onto the next guy. in the past decade these imbeciles destroyed their debt markets, defunded the pensions w/ zero rates, exacerbated the banking crisis particularly in italy by imposing austerity and stifling growth in the process, and to top it all off now they want to start throwing away money on an eu army. the only positive thing they've really managed to accomplish is the incredible bull market of the catering industry in brussels. so likely to happen is that uk just goes down w/ the ship. europe will undoubtedly be the epicenter & catalyst for the worldwide sovereign debt crisis
A swing and a miss. No, I have brought up the major strengths of the UK, as I said business hub too. There are plenty of businesses and financials service jobs outside the 1 square mile City of London. In the 21st century, the UK’s primary advantage is being a big English-speaking country with strong institutions, the rule of law, and a capitalist tradition within the EU, the world’s second largest economy. The English language and the fact that people like living in London makes it the beneficiary of a brain drain from the rest of Europe (it imports ambitious young people and exports retirees to sunny parts of Southern Europe), and the most attractive place for companies around the world to base their European operations. And it has huge influence within the EU in the formation of economic and foreign policy. It carries particularly outsize importance in the latter because “London” is the actual answer to Kissinger’s (apocryphal) question about whom he calls if he wants to speak to Europe. The EU will certainly be much weaker without the UK and vice versa. Without the EU, it’s just a reasonably affluent middle power about half the size of Japan. Whatever “sovereignty” the UK gains from leaving the EU, it will have to surrender to the US for example (without holding any influence over decisions), rather than acting as a bridge between the two. I'm not arguing that the UK won't be able to make deals, but that it will have less leverage.
