I’d like to think that the Nolan Ryan connection could help HOU keep Verlander here until he retires. Money controls all at the end of the day, but hopefully the two sides come to an agreement.
If Cole has another year like that I'd pay that man his money. I love Springer but if it takes letting him walk to help, I'm letting him go as he's close to past his prime and I'll take Ace pitching over an OF guy any day. I just think Cole wants to be on the West coast and could see the Dodgers going all in now that Kershaw is turning into an DL candidate every year and has lost his velocity. No longer the Ace.
I don't know if the Astros can afford either Verlander or Cole. How well our guys play this year that are on arbitration next year will have a major impact on the 2020 payroll. As of now, the 2019 Astros payroll sits just over 184 million for luxury tax purposes. The Astros have 69.25 million coming off the books with Verlander, Cole, McHugh, Rondon, Harris, Pressly, Miley, Smith, and Chirinos hitting free agency in 2020. However, Springer, Osuna, Correa, McCullers, Peacock, Marisnick, Diaz, Bregman, Stassi, and White will all be in arbitration for 2020, and Devenski has a team option for 2.62 million. For 2019, the guys that will be on arbitration next year plus Devenski cost the Astros 38 million. Doing some rough math, those same players will cost somewhere between 20-40 million MORE than the 38 million they cost this year. I think the number is likely to be somewhere in the middle because some guys will perform well and some guys will have down years. So lets use 30 million (which is probably low). That means 69.25-30 million leaves about 40 million to spend in free agency if we stay around 184 million in payroll for 2020. They have to replace 4/5ths of the rotation in Verlander, Cole, McHugh, and Miley plus Pressly, Rondon, Smith and Harris in the pen plus maybe a catcher to replace Chirinos if Stubbs isn't good enough. So unless Crane cranks open the check book and expands the payroll next year I don't see how the Astros can afford to pay 30 million on one guy in Cole or Verlander and only leave 10 million to address all the other holes that will be created by the free agents leaving. Even if you trade away Reddick, eat 5 million of his salary, and plug in Tucker in RF you still only have 18 million to address all those other holes if you pay Verlander or Cole 30 million. 2020 Roster Lineup: Springer Bregman Altuve Correa Brantley Gurriel Tucker White Stassi? Bench: Diaz, (backup catcher maybe Stubbs?), Marisnick/Kemp/Straw? Rotation: McCullers (probably innings limited after TJ surgery) Whitley Peacock ? James/Martin/Bukauskas/Valdez ? Bullpen: Osuna ? ? Devenski ? ? ? ?
I hope the offense can smash the ball off the cover in 2020 cuz our pitching staff without JV, GC, and few others is a scary thought. Whitley needs to get his feet wet this year.
Doesn't work that way for the luxury tax. They take the whole value of the contract and divide it by the number of years.
I don’t even know 2019 rotation, let alone 2020, but we can do the math. Astros won’t be able sign both JV and GC. And if you read Redfish post, we sign 1 for 30M, we’re limited to 10M to fill out the rest of pitching staff. That is a scary thought.
I wasn't necessarily talking about the luxury tax, more just for cash outflow planning. Sorry for the confusion. I also feel that the front office is too damn smart to let the luxury tax be a real issue. If they wanted to sign JV and stay under the luxury tax threshold, I think they can do that pretty easily.
There are too many unknowns in trying to project a lot about 2020. While certain facts (math) are true, they are only as true as time holds them to be. A year from now, the math and the facts will be different. As far as scary thoughts, yes replacing JV, Cole and McHugh looks daunting. But you never know what could happen. With a little tweaking, I think this team looks good enough to challenge at the top levels. If 2020 comes and we s#ck, then ill turn the dial to the new "Wheel of Time" tv series that might be on by then
I really think getting McHugh on an medium-sized extension could be a smart long-term move as a solid back-end stabilizer in an elite rotation, even though I know typically value comes from elite guys + farm system. I just think McHugh will outperform his (theoretical) contract
Luhnow will not let the team take the field in 2020 without a front end starter. If we have to trade for one or pay for Verlander then he will. That is the last year of our for sure contention window, so he isn't gonna leave such a gaping hole on the roster. I doubt the luxury tax will come into play for that year either, that's an issue over multiple years. I'm more concerned about our door slamming shut afterwards if none of our prospects develop into front end guys over the next 2 years. 2020 could become a true push all your chips in year.
I view this year as the push all the chips in year. Every year forward Bregman, Correa, and Springer will get more and more expensive. That means less money to spend on pitching. We have the aces now. We have a closer. We have one of the best lineups in baseball. I expect Luhnow to be even more aggresive at the deadline to fill any holes. Hopefully some of the young arms develop into top of the rotation starters, but it is a total unknown.
And you would be wrong. The team we have on the field right now can win a championship without pushing a single significant chip in. Hell people were advocating going all in back in 2017. You only go all in when you are at the end of the line. Maybe we pull the trigger on a deal, but we certainly aren't gonna come close to going all out in the trade market. The fact that we were so restrained in free agency confirms that (No way we let Morton walk if we were all in). We've got enough, so we could play hardball. When we don't have enough to compliment our core stars, that's when we'll have to cut loose and make big moves. Luhnow has been able to stick to his guns. If a team or player was asking too much, we moved on. But Luhnow can't, and won't, let a title contender dangle because we don't have the requisite pitching.
All in still has a budget. I believe Luhnow will be more willing to move top prospects this year than the previous 2.
Tried to get Goldscmidt. Arizona preferred the prospects from St Louis Tried to get Paxton. Seattle wanted Whitley to deal in the division. Tried to get Realmuto. Marlins wanted Tucker, James and another top 10 guy in our system. Tried to get Taillon from Pittsburgh. Tried to get Robbie Ray from Arizona. Tried to get Seth Lugo Luhnow was being aggresive. He's not going to overpay at this point. We have a log jam in the OF. Reddick, Brantley, and Springer are signed through 2020. I would not be surprised if Alvarez is moved and one of our top pitching prospects if we can add a significant piece at the deadline with mulitple years of control. Our division is garbage. Luhnow can wait until the deadline to bolster the team to compete with the Yankees and Red Sox. Knowing that Verlander and Cole are likely gone I expect him to be more aggresive at the deadline.
Pretty sure he’s going to ALWAYS try to get top talent while we are good so not sure your point here...especially since if he was being truly aggressive he would have parted with Tucker or Whitley then.
At the heart of this debate is a self proclaimed mandate that we strive to compete into the far future. Implicit in that statement is that the deals you make now dont hamstring you in that future. With that in mind, if going "all in" means cashing in all your chips in one season, then this team will never be "all in" unless they redefine their mandate. Maybe they will do this at some future point just before a restructuring/rebuild seems immanent for one last hurrah. Or not.
