It’s fine to think it’s terrible. But Kluber projects to be a more valuable/productive player than Springer next season, and Kluber comes with an extra year of control. Gomes has had inconsistent results but is easily an above average everyday catcher, and he is also controllable thru 2021. James has an elite ceiling; he could end up the next Aroldis Chapman. But he could also busts, and the history of pitching prospects indicates it’s far more likely that he gets hurt or figured out rather than end up a star. This (crazy, as I admitted in the original comment) only works if Houston is then able to add a stud CF (like Pollock) to replace Springer. If they were, the net would be a projected ~5 win/yr increase in 2019-2021 for a total cost of ~$25M/yr. It’s the type of hypothetical trade that Houston fans would laugh at and say it’s a bad deal for the Astros, then you go and post the same thing on an Indians board, and they tell you it’s a bad deal for Cleveland.
I can completely understand why a Cleveland board would think it is a absolutely horrible deal. I like James, but he isn't worth one year of Kluber, Gomes, and two years of the difference between Springer and Kluber.
Yeah, the tenets of thinking that would be a “fair” deal would be: Kluber and Springer will be of roughly equal surplus value thru 2020 Gomes has only marginal surplus value James is a MLB Top 75 level prospect
I am waiting to see where he ends up on prospect lists. Fangraphs was aware of him before the season and were still ultra-conservative on ranking him mid-season after he tore apart the best hitters the minors has to offer. Steamer, which usually is pretty conservative on rookies, has him at 2.2 WAR over 140 innings.
Just keep in mind that the way industry lists value or rank players is very different than teams do. James had quite a bit of value last season and even more now.
Luhnow hinting at acquiring a pitcher on a long term deal: https://www.chron.com/sports/astros...rm-13375527.php#click=https://t.co/16GdPoHejo
The only pitchers available in free agency I think are worth 4+ years are Keuchel and Corbin. I’d be ok with a 5 year deal for Corbin but only 4 for Keuchel. Regardless, I just don’t see Houston outbidding every other team for either of those 2 guys.
He is sick of trading for guys like Cole and Verlander and signing Morton... without getting them signed long term first. Paxton was the guy my gut thought they would go after but only two years of control left.
Dallas at 4 years scares the hell out of me. I think we see them go after someone they think has a lot of upside with some changes. The name the Astros have floated before is Robbie Ray.
I think Ray only has 2 years of control left. Godley has 4 years. Other 4+ year possibilities: Fulmer, Berrios, Marco Gonzalez, Matz, Trevor Williams, Luis Castillo, Marquez, Freeland, Cueto...none of those makes much sense, half prolly aren’t even available. I think they’ll end up acquiring someone with 3 years left. Will be very interesting to see how it shakes out.
Keep an eye on Ray. They have had interest for awhile. Also possible they work out an extension with someone under 2-3 years of control.
Fangraphs article on Realmuto: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/so-you-want-to-trade-for-j-t-realmuto/ It gives Whitley/Alvarez as their hypothetical, but given the packages they propose from other teams, I think it’s plausible Houston could get him with a strong 3 or 4 player package headlined by Alvarez. I can’t see a team beating a package of Yordan Alvarez plus 3 of JB Bukauskas, Corbin Martin, Cionel Perez, Josh James, Freudis Nova, and Framber Valdez. That’s a very tough deal for Houston to swallow (losing 4 of their best prospects for a player likely to be gone in 2 years), but I think most of us would be ok with virtually any Realmuto trade that doesn’t include Tucker or Whitley.
I guessing I don’t know much about baseball to give up 4 top 15 prospects in ur minor league system for a catcher. That sounds like a lot for just 2 years of service. Of course I haven’t watch one inning of Marlins baseball last 2-3 years. Hell, I’m already worried about who will our starting pitchers for 2020 if we can’t resign JV or GC.
I would not make that deal for 2 years of Realmuto. The Astros can sign Ramos or Grandal and save their prospects or move some for Paxton or Kluber.