The Astros will not need to make a definitive decision until almost two seasons from now. A lot of it will likely depend on the development of internal options. There are plenty of candidates with Whitley, James, Martin and the lower minors are very pitching deep. Over the next 18 months a lot could shake loose. I am sure the Astros would love to keep Morton and Verlander on short deals but it may not be possible. I don't see the Astros giving Cole what he can get as a free agent. I think trade or internal development is the far more likely route they take. The teams strengths and weaknesses will likely shift some over the next few seasons. It is possible that the offense will be more potent than the rotation at some point. It is very difficult to remain elite long in modern baseball, without deep pockets and some luck. So far we have overall be lucky and healthy. I have trust that if anyone can keep this going, it is this organization.
This. So far we are batting close to .1000 and we will likely sign a dud or two at some point, but the Astros have shown they can address pitching. Hell, Verlander/Cole/Morton all were outside the organization and cost us very little when you look at thus deals in the aggregate.
There are lot of shrewd organizations. It takes skill and luck to get pitching without money. I'm not sure Astros can keep having the golden touch with acquiring MLB pitchers.
No, the Astros are not going to bat a thousand on free agent pitching or trading for pitching. However, the same can be said when it comes to keeping their own pitchers under contract. There is a real chance that by the end of 2019 that one or more of Cole/Verlander/Morton will not be pitching at a high level. It is all a crap shoot and we have had some luck...... and taken advantage of opportunities.... look at the whole Aiken fiasco.
Verlander and Cole acquisitions are more magic than luck. Verlander is the best he's been since 2013 (possibly ever) and Cole has been better than he's ever been. It takes magic to get an ace without top prospects and without a lot of money. I suspect Luhnow has used up his ace-acquiring magic, and to get an ace, Luhnow will either need to develop an ace, trade great prospects for an ace, or spend some of Crane's World Series money on an ace.
I predict, that by the end of 2019, Cole will be by far the best of those three. Verlander will still be good, Morton probably will see his performance fall off. I really want us to keep Cole, he strikes me as a future HoF'er, he has great pitches, insane velocity, and still has pretty good location. Absolutely filthy, and a perfect piece of the core to keep around. Sorry, I'd rather keep Cole than Correa (injuries, inconsistency, and also I just like Altuve and Bregman better in terms of their personality and motivation). But, sadly, I doubt we spend a lot of money on extending Cole, and I also have the strong feeling that he'd rather play for the Yankees, Angels, or Giants. I predict Bregman will be the only other player we extend for big bucks in the near future. Morton probably stays for another year or two. Keuchel is almost certainly gone. Valdez likely takes his spot in the rotation, though I still like Perez more (sadly, he's probably destined for the bullpen). James will be a great starter, and I think Bukauskas still ends up in the pen (his career arc looks an awfully lot like Brad Lidge's early on). Armenteros I like as a trade chip, great pitches but ultimately not enough velocity for a RHP, especially in this Astros organization that values power pitchers more. Hartman would be great to have in the rotation to provide extreme contrast from all these right handed flamethrowers, slot him at #3.
Pitching is just so unpredictable, both to the downside and the upside. Aces come out of nowhere, Top prospects bust, and from year to year it all can change on a dime. Which is why I think Luhnow is smart to keep his big league rotation pretty fluid. Keuchel was a 7th round nobody. Verlander was washed up. Cole was a guy who never reached his ceiling. Morton was a 32 year old who had never put up better than 1.8 fWAR in a season. Aiken, Appel, and Martes were going to be 3 aces. Luhnow has been able to beat the odds by somehow identifying successful pitchers in a way other teams haven’t yet. A guy like Bryan Abreu could very well end up a ToR SP. Yes, eventually Luhnow will likely have to spend prospects or money to add a known quantity at SP, but he has at least a year to try to get answers from within. I’m confident there are at least 3 future SP3 or better prospects already in the upper minors.
The Astros will continue to develop SPs in both the minors and majors, and as long as they do that, they'll have options to restock. Whether through 2019 first round picks coming from either/both Keuchel and Morton rejecting qualifying offers; trades (Franklin Perez, Musgrove, Feliz for Verlander, Cole); astute picks (Whitley at #17, Martin in round 2, Keuchel in 7th round, McCullers at end of 1st); or insightful free agent signings (Morton, Framber Valdez, Cionel Perez), I have confidence in the front office. Just two years ago our rotation was Keuchel, an unreliable McCullers, McHugh, Fister and Fiers. A lot can and will happen in two years.
They are going to be alright if Vadez/James are any indication of what they've got on the farm. I could see Verlander re-signing and teaching the young guys the work ethic that it takes to be really successful in the MLB. I could also see Morton doing a 3-35 million year deal.
Corbin Martin dominated his playoff start tonight. 5.2 innings, 1 hit, 9 Ks. After getting promoted to AA, his strikeout rate dropped off, but later in the season it started to pick up again.
Astros Minor League Hitter of the Year is no question, Kyle Tucker. Minor League Pitcher of the Year has so many options. Honestly it might have been Patrick Sandoval had he not been traded. I think Josh James wins it.
He's not going to get ~60 starts in MLB to figure it out (with the Astros at least). Plus, Keuchel's cutter is a weapon regardless of velocity, not sure Hartman has a pitch like that. Bullpen lefty is not a bad job to aspire to, he can make a million dollars.
Agree with the general post, but Keuchel was a Wade pick. I guess you can say he became good in the Luhnow era though
Keuchel, Springer are Wade, Bobby Heck picks. Jose Altuve was a Oz Ocampo signing, Tim Purpura was the GM that sent Oz the Altuve Contract.
Hopefully not, but heck, Wandy got more time to figure it out and we went to the World Series his Rookie year. Keuchel had such good underlying numbers in his 2nd season, but still was nearly out of the rotation on a terrible team.
Right? All I was saying is that he won't have the time to hone his craft with the Astros, not that he can't at some point later. How pissed would Strosfan be if we jettisoned Keuchel 5 years ago?
MLB Pipeline's Prospect Team of the Year Kyle Tucker made 1st team in OF. JD Davis made the 2nd team as a DH. In former prospect news: Patrick Sandoval made the 2nd team as the LHP.
