His velo is still down a little from July of last year. His sinker does have more "sink" though this past month than it's had since 2016.
There is zero chance we give up prospects to get Casellanos so that we can bench Gattis. Would not be good use of a roster spot at all with the makeup of our roster, plus I’m not sure benching a guy who is second on your team in HR and RBI and seems to be really loved as a clubhouse guy is the way to go
.. 3 years, $50 mil minimum. Wade Davis: 3 yrs, $52 mil Aroldis Chapman: 5 yrs, $85 mil Mark Melancon: 4 yrs, $62 mil Kenley Jansen: 5 yrs, $80 mil He is firmly in the Wade Davis range despite being better, because he's coming off an iffy injury. But he has already started performing at pre injury levels, so if someone offers him a big 5 year deal, no way the Stros will match. They might do a big 3 year deal, like 3 yrs, $60 mil, before the Correa Breg extensions kick in
Interesting to see what Britton ends up commanding. Nobody has gone for what I'd consider a big haul this year. Hopefully can get it done without giving up too much, but he has become the hot name. The freaking Orioles have 5 guys under contract beyond this year, and all 5 are way overpaid.
I doubt Britton gets anywhere near that. Maybe if he dominates through the end of the season and into the postseason he can set himself up for a nice deal, but not that nice. Maybe a Brandon Morrow type deal, which was 2/$21M guaranteed.
Britton is coming off 3 seasons of being THAT guy. He was pitching at the highest level for long periods of time. Morrow was never THAT guy over a stretch of time despite being very good as a setup man, and dominant in the '17 playoffs. This is the first season he has been a closer and was my priority FA signing for the astros. Britton is getting paid if he finishes the season healthy, the question is whether he will get deals over 3 years that would scare luhnow away. Proven closers are getting big $.
Britton has been hurt 3 times over the past 2 years. When healthy his walks have been up and his Ks have been down. His risk is much higher than those other top closers.
Also, I think we will see a correction in what closers get financially in light of the performance of Holland and Davis. I could see Kimbrel getting big money but not sure Britton gets a deal over 2-3 years.
Yup, I agree. I also feel that most of those other top closers signed in a different market, which we should consider. I think the current market is most reflective with the Brandon Morrow signing, which is why my initial guess was 3/$30M. I don't think there is a ton of value with Britton at 3/$50M. With many fans worrying about keeping the core intact, it's makes it really hard when you are paying a closer $15M+ per year.
With Brent Strom he can fix any pitcher, Brent advice to fix the the grip, fingers placed on the ball, arm angle. Brent really helped turned around Dallas Keuchel in the beginning of his career a 5.00 era in the beginning. Verlander had a high era in a bigger ballpark, came over in a trade, worked with Brent in the bullpen. He dominated. Gerrit Cole worked with Brent and his era is way lower than last year in a bigger PNC Park and dominating in a hitters park. Lance McCullers is healthier and his arm isn't getting injured. I think Brent fixed Lances issues. Great Job by Lance and Brent. Charlie also more healthier and mechanics are even better. I really think Brent watches videos of Justin Verlander, Gerrit Cole, Zach Britton before the trades and gives insight on how to fix his delivery to Jeff Luhnow. Brent was a Former Pitcher so he can relate to guys delivery.
Led all closers/relievers league in FIP during his 3 year peak. statistically beats out guys like chapman, on par with kimbrel. I don't want to cherry pick stats to make an argument, but I can't see the market not pricing him at a 3 yr/50 mil deal and someone offering it. It has been a while since his continued dominant period, so plenty will hesitate.
I hope for Britton, I think he’s the only option on the market that’s a clear upgrade of Rondon as closer. If the price becomes to high too acquire him, I’d expect Luhnow goes after an elite setup guy or a 2nd LOOGY. And most certainly a bat.
No doubt he was elite. He didn't have the same K-Rate as the rest of that group, but belonging in that class regardless. Teams do not like to put forth large multi-year deals on injury risks. Greg Holland is a guy that comes to mind as an elite closer who due to injury had to settle for 1 year & $6M. Despite a pretty solid comeback year, he had to settle for a 1 year $14M deal this time. Kimbrel, Miller, & Britton are hitting the market. Plus Familia, Robertson, Herrera, and a host of other guys that are in the probably more of a setup guy (though I'm not really big on Robertson or Herrera as closers). Kimbrel's going to get big money, looking to match Jansen. I think Miller is next in line, and then Britton.
At this point in his career Adam Jones isn't a starting OF on a good team. Plus his defense is bad so don't want him as a late inning defensive replacement type either. O's will probably sign him to a 3-year deal this offseason and he'll play out his career as the face of a terrible rebuilding team.
From the Athletic. Some questions and answers with Jake Kaplan. Nothing most don't already know, but if you are bored and need Astros info with your coffee... Question: "Do you think it's even necessary to have a "true closer," given the success the Astros had using starters out of the bullpen last October? It seems to me that a starting pitcher is usually just a better pitcher than a reliever since many relievers are failed starters." Answer: Jake Kaplan: "I think it's less a matter of having a "true closer" and more of just the potential of another high-caliber, late-inning option. Zach Britton, if healthy and effective like he's been the past (and in his recent outings), certainly represents an upgrade for the Astros on paper. Having him for the save opportunities would free up Hector Rondon for other high-leverage spots and give them a deeper 'pen on the whole." Question: "What/who do you think the Astros will have to get up to get Zach Britton? Rumor last year was an offer of Paulino/Moran. With the demand are they asking for more then that this year?" Answer: Jake Kaplan: "I heard several different versions of last year's package, so it's hard to know which was accurate. The price should be lower than last year given Britton is a rental as opposed to having 1-plus years of control, but the demand should obviously drive up the price some. The Astros have a deep farm system, so predicting which prospects they are willing to part with and that the Orioles like is kind of impossible. They won't give up Whitley, Tucker or Alvarez for a rental reliever, though." Question: "Why are we not hearing anything about the Astros being in on Iglesias from the reds or Conley from Mia? Are they really that enamored with Britton?" Answer: Jake Kaplan: " Because Britton is a rental, which makes him much more viable. Iglesias would require the Astros parting with a huge prospect package, something they are less inclined to do. As for Conley (also not a rental), I'm not sure he represents a definitive upgrade." Question: "If the Astros do not get Britton, the next likely candidate for them to trade for is...?" Answer: Jake Kaplan: "With Hand, Familia and Herrera off the board, it might be Britton or bust as far as relievers go. I don't know if any of the other rentals represent a definitive upgrade for the Astros, and I would be surprised if they paid the premium for a controllable reliever like Iglesias." Question: "Thanks for taking the time to do this Jake. While the want for a bullpen arm is obvious, the C situation makes me worry a little more. I feel Stassi shines more as a backup, and it’s hard to know what to expect when McCann comes back. Do you see the Astros making a push for a C at the deadline?" Answer: Jake Kaplan: " I would be surprised if they acquired a catcher before the deadline at this point. They seem pretty content with Stassi, who ranks 2nd in the AL and 8th in the majors among catchers in WAR. I think if they are going to part with prospects to upgrade their roster, doing so for a reliever like Britton is their focus."
One great thing about getting Britton, is that there is enought time for him to help us on this WS run, without having enought time for Strom to go ham on him, so we might be able to sign a reasonable 3 year deal like 15M per, just to see him produce like the best closer in the Majors for the next few years. Let's see if these AL teams allow us to get him for a reasonable package tho.
The bat should be Realmuto, as catching is weak. Federowicz is not a good backup, and I can't really see Stassi begin an everyday starter long-term. Stubbs likely won't be a successful big-leaguer as a catcher given his small size (which prevented him from going higher in the draft). Ritchie, though, may be one prospect to watch. Trading for Realmuto will also help us "defensively" by keeping him from BOS or epecially NYY, both oh whom I'd imagine have interest. If not, and we still get a bat, I'd prefer a LHH to counter our righty-heavy lineup.
