Realmuto has 2 more years on his contract. Miami will not be competitive during his tenure,so they are not going to be building around him. Miami will ask for an extremely high price, but Realmuto's value will decline the longer they wait to trade him. If you are convinced that this is Realmuto's new normal, then trading Tucker for him would be reasonable. But just like Sanchez has regressed and Marwin has returned to normal after his careeer year, his .362 BABIP tells me Realmuto will likely regress also. 285 15-20 HR Tucker would be good value for regressed Realmuto. 285 25-30 HR Tucker not so much. Figuring stuff like this out is why front offices get the big bucks. It just seems to me that if the Astros thought Realmuto was worth Tucker, the trade would already have happened.
HOU Gets: LHP Zach Britton BAL Gets: OF Derek Fisher RHP David Paulino Given his injury, and that he's just a rental, this is all. Baltimore should be happy they get something. Not too bad of a return for them, honestly. HOU Gets: C JT Realmuto LHP Adam Conley MIA Gets: RHP JB Bukauskas (4) RHP Rogelio Armenteros (5) OF Gilberto Celestino (14) RHP Ken Giles C Garrett Stubbs 2B Tony Kemp 1B Tyler White Our future catcher, with great stats all-around both offensively and defensively, and another lefty arm, They can flip Giles to a team like CLE, LAD, ATL, etc. for more prospects. Kemp and White are extras on our team who are blocked. I know Kemp is a fan favorite but his defense is pretty weak, and he's blocked at 2B and our OF is stacked. Trade is headlined by #4 and 5 prospects, two MLB-ready players, an OF whose stock may (And probably will) keep rising, pus another C and a RP who. Playoff Lineup CF - Springer 2B - Altuve 3B - Bregman SS - Correa 1B - Gurriel DH - Gattis RF - Reddick LF - Tucker C - Realmuto Bench C - Stassi/McCann UTL - Davis UTL - Gonzalez OF - Marisnick/Straw Rotation SP - Verlander SP - Cole SP - Morton SP - Keuchel SP - McCullers Bullpen McHugh Peacock Devo Conley Rondon Britton Smith 2019 Lineup CF - Springer 2B - Altuve 3B - Bregman SS - Correa 1B - Davis DH - Alvarez RF - Reddick LF - Tucker C - Realmuto Bench C - Stassi UTL - Gurriel OF - Straw Rotation SP - Verlander SP - Cole SP - McCullers SP - Whitley SP - Martin Bullpen McHugh Peacock Devo Conley Perez Smith Harris (?)/MiLB arm/another trade? Rondon (Closer)
No, man, no. Neither Baltimore or Miami would do that trade. Realmuto does not come to Houston without Alvarez, tucker or Whitley going the other way ... as a base. The stros are likely waiting to see if stassi regresses before making moves at that position. Expiring Britton has an incentive be traded , but Baltimore can obtain actual high ceiling prospect if they choose to do so, or get a comp pick which has more value than what you offered.
I am definitely content with trading Alvarez for Realmuto, just wanted to try and see if I could piece together something without him since he's beloved by this forum. I just think our OF will be fine without him, and that 1B will likely be occupied by Beer (the organization doesn't seem to view Alvarez as a 1B anyway).Stassi has been regressing since June, McCann is aging, injured, and gone after this year, and Realmuto has a high ceiling and is entering his prime. I say we try and get him. Plus, other contenders will get better, we have to keep up.
Totally get where you are coming from. Slight point of clarification; if we trade for him now, he helps our chances to win it all this year, plus the two additional years you mentioned, for a total of 3 [hopeful] playoff runs. That is where I am getting my 3 years of control from, although it would be more accurate to say 2.5 years. And you are probably right about your last point, Realmuto is probably already an Astro if our front office was willing to include him in a deal. I'm not necessarily pounding the table for this deal, I am merely trying to point out that maybe the value proposition is there, when most of us would immediately say "hell no." I'm still a big Tucker fan, so in a way, it's a win-win for us either way!
I think the biggest difference is Luhnow sees our “window” as much longer than most CF posters. I think he sees Tucker here 7 years and knows if we get Realmuto it will only be for 2 more, or if we do keep him at that point one of the other stars is gone, cause if healthy Realmuto is gonna get paid in two more years
The post above mentions it-- the big advantage of the Astros farm is the long, cheap control they have on prospect contracts. Sucks as a player, but great for an organization to get a player's prime years on a budget. That is what gives a small market team without Boston, NY, LA $ the ability to compete for a long time. Realmuto will be getting Springer, Bregman, Correa money in 2021 - no way the Astros can afford that. I see either Alvarez, Tucker, Beer etc. at DH/1B as the long term replacement for Correa if he takes up a $300 million contract elsewhere. That is why luhnow is not in a hurry to be aggressive over a position they have a 4 WAR player at right now in Stassi. Without Stassi it's a different story, but I do think every move is made with a long term view in mind. Now trading for a closer with good stuff and mental steel is a different story. It is a priority going against the bats of NYC, BOS and CLE. Verlander and Morton are great but aging. Keuchel will be gone if he gets big $. It's something for the now AND future. You can't get comfortable with the bullpen putting up stats against weak teams in the reg season, the mlb is in feast or famine mode only 20% of teams even want to have the rosters to compete.
On the first part, I agree except I don't think he sees them as a replacement for Correa, he see's them as players who will be good and cheap, the type of players you have to have on your team to afford Correa along with Altuve, Springer, Bregman. You will always need to have 3-4 really good players who are not getting big bucks to afford those guys. That's why I don't think you see him trade a Tucker or Alvarez for a guy like Realmuto, who is awesome, but would only be here two more years. If he thought he wasn't going to be able to extend our 4 studs, I think he would be more likely to go after a Realmuto and just try to win a couple of championships now and deal with later, later Problem with trading for a closer with good stuff and mental steel...that would be awesome, but how many of those guys are out there? Chapman Kimbrell Jansen Diaz Those are the best of the best...and all are playing on contending teams so they are going nowhere Treinen and Hand are the next two, Treinen is also playing for a contender and I can't see Oakland selling That pretty much leaves Hand...who has been very good the last two years, but he has never been through the pressure of a playoff race, much less closing out playoff games. Don't get me wrong, i'd love to add him, but we wouldn't know how he is going to react until he gets here Collin McHugh has probably been one of the top 5 relievers in baseball this year, it's just that most of it hasn't been in highly critical situations until lately. Rondon has been great, i'd be very interested to see how McHugh would do in the 9th inning also, and giving him a shot would probably be just as likely to be successful as bringing in a guy like Hand Also, while i'd be all for adding a Hand, or taking a chance on a Britton if the cost wasn't high...let's also not forget that the top 3 guys listed above were all beaten by us in the playoffs last year, so even having one of those "proven" guys doesn't guarantee a thing If you gave me the option of closing out the 9th inning of a game 7, i'd probably take Lance over any of them
I'm telling you Brad peacock needs to be apart of a trade. Maybe Hand maybe Iglesias maybe Realmuto. But he would get the ball rolling faster. To get Realmuto you would have to to with out a doubt add Alveraz, Bukaukas and Nova to even get in the realm of possibility. You could add Martas Reed and Davis and they could bite hard and add Conley. But let's say Peacock, Paulino and Deetz could nab you Hand. Js it would be worth it in the long run. Sure everyone loves Peacock but if you could add a dominate Reliever closer type to help solidify your Pen it might make Giles step up his game????
Great post. The "lockdown closer" issue is one that repeatedly brought up. I'd be all for upgrading at closer, if only said upgrade was available.
Lol, why would a rebuilding team want a 30 year old as the main piece in a trade for their best trade chip God bless you for trying, but this just ain’t how it works man
If Britton is healthy, he is as good as anyone over the last 20 years. His stuff looks to be rebounding but will it be consistent? I don’t know... that is where scouting comes in.
Ehh Baltimore may do Fisher and Paulino for Britton. Fisher is worth more than a comp pick. I don’t think the Orioles are guaranteed to even offer him the QO because of his health issues. The Astros will likely want the Orioles to pay some of Britton’s contract though.
If he could be had for a mid range prospect and one of the excess CI guys I would be all in If you have to pay as if he is what he was two years ago, not worth the risk Again, game 7 of a series do we trust him right now, or Lance?
I would do that and not think twice Both have ability but we have depth and better players at those spots Worth the risk in my opinion
That package is similar to what we offered Baltimore last year for Britton and the front offices were in agreement. Some of the luster has worn off of Fisher and Paulino... but it has off of Britton as well. He is now a rental and coming off of an injury. It is a risk for sure.... but if he is healthy... a pen of Lance, McHugh, Devo, Giles and Britton is as good as anyone’s... and that doesn’t even count Peacock.
