What gives you the indication that the organization thought Perez wasn't special? Hader may not have been thought of as an elite type, but Phillips was probably not far behind where Alvarez is now. A the time of the trade, he was considered pretty much untouchable.
I have no inside info or anything, but follow all of this as closely as anyone possibly could (just ask my wife lol) I read multiple times that Bregman, Reed, Martes, Tucker, Whitley were untouchable when it came to trades. In fact multiple sources said we could have had Sale but Luhnow wouldn’t budge on certain guys Perez name surfaced in multiple trade rumors before being dealt to Detroit. I never heard from any source that he was untouchable like the others. Same with Phillips, Hader and Santana. All were well thought of I’m sure, but in a system with incredible depth they were not the ones that Luhnow just wouldn’t move. Now he ain’t always right, Hader has turned into a stud, Martes is trending the way of Singleton.....But he has built one hell of a system from top to bottom, and he isn’t likely to change the way he has done business As I’ve said, he will obviously move prospects for help now, just not the select few he sees as foundations or whatever word you want to use Now maybe I’m wrong and he doesn’t view Alvarez in that light....but I bet he does, and I bet he wouldn’t move him for two years of Realmuto
If you're convinced you need a catcher, I like the Wilson Ramos idea better than Realmuto. He's an expiring, so the cost should be fairly low. I wouldn't be surprised if we were able to get him for something like Davis, Fisher and a lower pitching prospect. That's the luxury of having an insanely deep system.
Phillips was said to be untouchable: And every top prospect gets mentioned in trade rumors. Bregman for Sale was talked about a lot, I remember media reports suggesting the Astros should trade Correa for Harvey. Kyle Tucker was reportedly actually offered for Chris Archer. I'm not sure they would trade Alvarez for Realmuto or not, but this "didn't consider Perez elite" idea seems like nonsense to me. I'm pretty sure Oz had "looking for the next Franklin Perez in his twitter bio for a while even after the trade.
I've said it a few times now, I'm not making any significant investment in a catcher until I get some real evidence that Max Stassi can't do the job.
Sure there were reports. If I’m a reporter I can print whatever I want. And that’s kind of proving my point, yes we could have had Sale if we included Bregman, but Luhnow don’t budge because he feels pressure. Look maybe I’m totally wrong here and he would trade anyone. I just think he has a long term plan and it includes keeping the ones he thinks will be studs, and using the rest to upgrade the current team. I’ll be shocked if Alvarez is traded, but I’ve been wrong before
So why are reports of Perez being a trade candidate proof the Astros weren't very high on him, but reports of Tucker being offered nonsense? No offense, but you're argument seems based on feelings and hindsight bias, and doesn't really have anything to back it up at all.
Not by the Astros. Astros traded a lot of guys after having great years in Lancaster. No one in minors is ever truly untouchable, but when hitting prospects get in the Top 25 and pitching prospects get inside the Top 10-15, it becomes very hard to find a match in a trade that fits value, years of control, and money for all teams involved (about 1 of these guys is traded a year). Luhnow has yet to trade a Top 25 hitting prospect or a Top 15 pitching prospect. I would not expect Astros to trade a prospect like those while they still have a solid core in place for many years.
Google "Kyle Tucker untouchable" and "Franklin Perez untouchable". Looking at links for "Franklin Perez untouchable", I see things like "only Tucker and Whitley are viewed as untouchables". On "Kyle Tucker untouchable", I never see Perez's name pop out. Perez and Tucker were never viewed similarly.
The best thing that could happen for Houston would be for the Nats to acquire Ramos and extend him, taking them out of the Realmuto market this deadline and next season. The Yankees, Indians, Giants, Mariners, Dodgers, Cardinals, Cubs, and Phillies are deadline buyers but all have multi-year entrenched starters at catcher. The Braves and A’s will be buyers but both are pretty set at catcher this season. If Realmuto isn’t traded until the offseason they might be involved as both have good farms. The other buying teams are the Astros, Angels, Red Sox, Nats, Brewers, Rockies, and D Backs: Rockies have Iannetta signed thru 2020. Nats are likely to acquire Ramos. Red Sox and DBacks probably don’t have the prospects. So I would guess if Realmuto is traded this month, it will be to Milwaukee, Anaheim, or Houston, as those are the teams with the immediate need and the prospects to make a deal. But Stassi and Maldonado have been pretty good for Houston and the Angels respectively so those teams aren’t under any real pressure. The Brewers are probably the favorite at this point.
Untouchable is an awful term, as every player is available for the right price, but this discussion was never comparing Tucker to Perez, I was pushing back against the notion that apparently the Astros didn't believe that Perez was an elite prospect for whatever reason. It's pretty obvious that the Astros liked Whitley and Tucker better than Perez last deadline, just as its clear (imo) that they like them better than Alvarez right now.
And we will have to just disagree on Perez, I think Luhnow thought he had a chance to be really good, but not in the Bregman, Tucker, Martes, Reed, Whitley group He isn’t always right, nobody is
I’m not so sure about that, again we could have had Sale if that was truly the case. Cost plays a big part in this market, and to keep the whole group together we have to keep and hit on the right guys
I guess I don't have a problem with you saying you never felt Perez was an elite prospect (though I'd guess you may feel differently if he were still an Astro). I think it's the you implying that you know how Lunhow feels about the prospects is where we're having a disconnect.
I agree untouchable is a terrible term. You shouldn't have compared Tucker to Perez then if you don't want people to assume you are comparing Tucker to Perez. A Top 25 hitting prospect has historically been worth about 3-4 times as much as a 25th-100th ranked pitching prospect. If Alvarez isn't in the Top 25 on midseason updates before the trade deadline, I expect him to be very close to it. In other words, Alvarez is likely viewed as 3-4 times as valuable as Perez was last year before Perez was traded or close to it this year at the deadline. Hitting prospects are a lot easier to project than pitching prospects. As such, teams value them more than pitching prospects even though their ceilings may be similar (most prospect lists rate ceiling too much). Basically, I view Alvarez like I did Tucker about a year ago. My view on Tucker is basically the same as last year. Alvarez should be viewed as very close in value to Tucker. Some even value Alvarez more. Astros may view Tucker higher than Alvarez, but I fully expect Astros view Alvarez closer to Tucker's value last year than what they valued Perez before trading him.
I don't see where I compared the two, I just showed an example of where the Astros reportedly tried to trade Tucker after the previous poster listed him a group of players that the Astros would never trade. I was trying to discuss a broader topic than the trade value of specific prospects. Idk if the Astros will trade Alvarez, neither do you. Lunhow himself doesn't even know if the Astros will trade Alvarez, but the whole "Astros won't trade elite prospects, and Phillips and Perez don't count because the Astros never liked them anyways" attitude is baffling to me, in much the same way college football fans try to pretend their team didn't want a recruit whenever he signs with a rival.
No offense taken, this is an internet message board it ain’t that important I never said they were not high on him, I’ve said Luhnow seems to have a few elite ones that he simply isn’t moving and Perez wasn’t in that group. I think he felt like Martes, Whitley, Bregman, Tucker were a step above him and some of the others. Doesn’t mean they didn’t like him. Sorry that I seemed to offend you or Perez with my posts. Time will tell, I’ll just be real surprised if Alvarez is moved....we shall see
Agree And also think you can’t get too tied to top 20 or top 25 or whatever. Luhnow has his own thoughts on these guys and they won’t always be in line with the publications lists. Funny thing is we have spent a couple days debating all of this over Realmuto and we already have a catcher with the highest OPS in the AL
