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Is Ryan Anderson's 3-point percentage an artifact?

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by Will, Oct 15, 2017.

  1. Will

    Will Clutch Crew
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    The overall 3-point shooting percentage in the NBA is 35.8%. James Harden is shooting slightly under 35%. Ryan Anderson is shooting slightly over 40%. Is Anderson actually a better 3-point shooter than Harden and others? Or does he simply take easier shots?

    I ask because I was struck, watching the Spurs game, by how often Anderson passed up shots when any opponent was near him. You could say he was skittish. You could say he was just doing the smart thing and looking for a more open man. But Harden takes those shots. Other players take those shots.

    Which raises the question: If Anderson took the 3-point shots other players take, guarded or not, would his percentage be better than average?

    If you take 10 relatively unguarded shots and make 4 of them, your percentage, obviously, is 40. If you then take 4 more difficult shots and make 1 of them, your percentage falls to 35.7, which is around the league average.

    Does Anderson simply pass up those guarded shots? Is there a stat or other way to measure this? And if this is how he keeps his percentage up, is it good basketball, or deception?
     
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  2. J.R.

    J.R. Member

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  3. SirIvyLeague

    SirIvyLeague Member

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    Anderson (pump fakes) and passes out of open looks more than anybody I know with an absolute green light to shoot, this is widespread over any soul who plays basketball not just the NBA.

    SIL
     
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  4. don grahamleone

    don grahamleone Contributing Member

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    Wrong forum. Kidding of course.

    I think Harden is a much better three point shooter, but he's always got players on him. However, I do think Anderson is the better shooter at that like 38 foot range where he likes to space the floor. Dude is pretty amazing from that distance. I think the best shooter on the team is Gordon though. That guy has such good mechanics.

    Anyone else notice that Ryno was shooting the 3 at home from closer to the top of the key? I think he really does have a depth of field issue at home that improved when he was looking at the backboard instead of rim and the crowd in the background.

    [​IMG]
     
    #4 don grahamleone, Oct 15, 2017
    Last edited: Oct 15, 2017
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  5. pippendagimp

    pippendagimp Member

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    can we just move this thread to the secret styx forum before we end up driving his trade value even lower. if we don't have 40% 3pt then we don't have anything!
     
  6. justtxyank

    justtxyank Contributing Member

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    Maybe you are on to something. Wish we had a gm that was into stats so he could figure this out like you have.
     
  7. Francis3422

    Francis3422 Member

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    Anderson has a slow release and no vertical. He also really has no impactful counter when he isn't able to get his slow ass shot off. Why else do you shoot from 25?
     
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  8. Mr. Clutch

    Mr. Clutch Contributing Member

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    I would assume Harden takes many more 3s off the dribble, which are much harder and more impressive. Also often more useful and harder to replace
     
  9. RocketsFido

    RocketsFido Member

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    Anderson's made 3s are always wide open and he does that stupid pump fake that players rarely fall for before passing out.
     
  10. kingkingston

    kingkingston Member

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    The percentages can be a bit misleading. You have to take in to account games that are blow outs and players are just chucking up shots for the hell of it from anywhere. I'd love to see the percentages of a player when games are within 10 points shown
     
  11. RockWest

    RockWest Contributing Member

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    Even if Ryno is not a better 3p shooter than EG under the same condition, he is a PF, he's one of the best at this craft at his position.
     
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  12. BigMaloe

    BigMaloe Contributing Member

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    Last year he averaged 7 3s a game

    He attempted 0.3% of his shots with very tight defense (0-2 ft to the nearest defender) and making none. So he practically never shot while being defended heavily.

    He attempted 2.1% of his shots with tight defense (2-4 ft to the nearest defender) which equates to 0.2 attempts per game. He shot 43.8% with that much space. Seems like once every 5 games he shoots a semi contested shot.

    He attempted 25.9% of his shots while being open (4-6 ft to the nearest defender) which equates to 2.8 attempts per game. He shot 40% with that much space.

    He attempted 37.3% of his shots while being wide open (6+ ft to the nearest defender) which equates to 4 attempts per game. He shot 40.6% with that much space.

    Tl;dr
    He shoots predominantly and almost exclusively open to wide open shots.
     
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  13. Easy

    Easy Boban Only Fan
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    He took 7.0 3pt per game last season, compared to Harden's 9.3, Gordon's 8.8, and Ariza's 6.9. The amount of 3pt shots he took is about right in the Rockets' offensive scheme.

    The role of both Anderson and Ariza is to shoot open spot up 3pt shots. And they shot about the same amount. But Anderson's percentage is much better.
     
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  14. Will

    Will Clutch Crew
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    Great metrics! Where are you getting them? Is there a table I can look at? These metrics, when compared side by side (e.g. Harden, Gordon, Ariza, Anderson) would completely answer my question.
     
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  15. kjayp

    kjayp Contributing Member

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    So basically... you're sayin that a guarded 3 is less efficient than an open 3? Have you done the research on this? @DonKnock wants to know...

    Lol! I agree with your premise, Will... just queing this up as a reference to another thread... :)
     
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  16. Dr of Dunk

    Dr of Dunk Clutch Crew

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  17. Dr of Dunk

    Dr of Dunk Clutch Crew

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  18. RockWest

    RockWest Contributing Member

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    Which is exactly what coach told him to do and what he should be doing.

    Guards are expected to be good at 3s, PFs are not expected to shoot or defend 3s until recently. Even if he is not better than Gorden or Harden, his impact on the offense is still very significant.
     
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  19. tycoonchip

    tycoonchip Member
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    Anderson is an overglorified and overpaid matt bullard. If he was getting the minimum, I would be happy with him sitting on the bench unless really needed. He is however getting paid 60mil dollars.
     
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  20. topfive

    topfive CF OG

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    Interesting question, Will. This could also be turned upside down: If every other Rocket attempted to take less-contested 3-point shots, would we as a team hit a higher percentage of our 3s? I'm thinking the answer would be yes, which actually makes Anderson's approach the more effective one.

    On the other hand, I think the percentage of NBA players you could convince to stop shooting contested 3s is very, very small. :)
     
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