Filtered out prospects by what I consider the 3 best predictors of success: age relative to league, avoiding strikeouts, and taking walks. (Power and defensive ability would be next but I consider them much less reliable in predicting success, especially at the lower levels; I also put a heavy emphasis on scouting opinions, signing bonuses, etc., but that's hard to quantify). Here are the prospects at each level who are/were younger than league average, walked at least 8% of the time, and struck out less than 25%: DSL: Cueta, Nova, Mendoza, Carrasco, Gonzalez, Alvarez GCL: Galan, Valdez, Perry, Cortez Rk: Celestino A-: Toro, De La Cruz A: Cameron, Arauz, Henderson A+: Tucker, Martin, Rogers, Straw, Birk, Alvarez, Degoti, Wrenn, Michelena AA: Laureano, Stubbs AAA: Fisher, Davis, Moran Players on that list that play a premium defensive position and/or also show power are to me the most valuable. Factor in scouting opinions and bonuses, and you can see why I'm still so high on Cameron. Nova and Cueta are the most exciting prospects in the DSL. Celestino and Toro should make huge jumps in prospect lists this offseason. Many of those guys in High a are just slightly under the age limit, but I'm still high on Wrenn and Rogers. I don't think much of Laureano but by this measure there's still room for optimism.
For me just base purely on stats for position players: For under AA Age to League (this is a decent proxy for scouting as it shows the level the team thinks a player can handle) K% (I'm guessing swinging strike may even be better now that it is easier to obtain, but very closely related stats, and I also need to see it more to confirm my guess) ISO BABIP SS, CF, C AA and AAA Age to League K% (or swinging strike) ISO BABIP BB% SS, CF, C For pitchers under AA Age to League K%-BB% K% (i.e. guys that get K%-BB% with insanely low BB% in low levels are not nearly as valuable as guys with the same K%-BB% with a higher K%) Innings For pitchers for AA and AAA Age to League K%-BB% Innings
No. Underlying numbers look really good and he is striking out hitters at an elite rate... good to get him a few starts at a challenging level before next year. Most execs say the jump to AA is the hardest adjustment to make.
Yordan Alvarez with another multi-hit night. Not a ton of XBHs but not worried about the power at all... kid is a high-level hitter for his age.
Number 3? Greinke has averaged 4.5 WAR per season over the last ten years. At very worst an exceptional #2. But by most accounts an ace. He is a borderline hall of famer depending on how the next five years of his career pan out.
You misunderstood my comment. Greinke and Kershaw are the 50% that make up the HoF outcome, Billingsley and Bundy are the SP3's.
Greinke is an elite talent. I am unsure that any of today's pitchers will ever make the HoF, mainly because they will lack the counting stats, right or wrong. Less games, wins, strikeouts, etc.
Kershaw will be in. I suspect WAR, another counting stat, will be more accepted by the time he is eligible. Kershaw will likely have have enough WAR that only guys around him or above him not in Hall currently are active players, Curt Schilling (lack of wins still likely a big deal today), Pete Rose, and Bonds.
Kershaw is in. Any pitcher from 2010 on who has 60+ WAR will almost certainly be in. That's 10 years of 6+ WAR and would be in the Top 50 all time for pitchers. Kershaw, Sabathia, Greinke, Colon, Hernandez, and Hamels all have pretty good shots of getting in. The first 5 are in the top 100 all time in pitcher war.
I hope they let him go deeper into ballgames in AA, let hitters see him multiple times and make adjustments and see how he reacts.
WAR as the counting stat works for me: https://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/WAR_pitch_career.shtml
