Fisher up, Hoyt to Fresno

I like Jake, but of all players on the roster, he is the last one I'd want up in a big situation.

 

Yep. Jake is extremely likable, and brings a lot to the table with his hustle and defense, but his situational hitting is sub par.

 

Interestingly enough, he's one of our best hitters at home:

Home Jake: 1.079 OPS
Road Jake: .655 POS

And situationally (can't figure out how to embed graph yet, just tried for the 1st time):

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.fcgi?id=marisja01&year=2017&t=b#clutc::none

 

Aoki offensively, but Marisnick defensively. Aoki has done a good job throwing, but otherwise has been terrible. Neither Aoki or Fisher belong in RF and I really don't like Beltran out there.

They aren't going to do this, but I like the idea of Bregman playing SS with Marwin at 3B. I'd actually like to see Yuli at 3B more, except for what Buck mentioned about the fact that Yuli is going to 1B in the playoffs so the more experience he can get there the better.

 

Code:

                                                                                                                       
Split         G GS  PA  AB  R  H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO   BA  OBP  SLG   OPS TB GDP HBP SH SF IBB ROE BAbip tOPS+ sOPS+
2 outs RISP     24  28  24 11  7  1  0  1   8  0  0  2  7 .292 .393 .458  .851 11   0   2  0  0   0   1  .375   109   130
Late  Close     15  19  16  7  6  0  0  2   2  1  0  3  9 .375 .474 .750 1.224 12   0   0  0  0   0   0  .800   191   245
Tie Game        20  27  24  7  6  0  0  4   5  1  0  1  8 .250 .308 .750 1.058 18   1   1  1  0   0   0  .167   141   167
Within 1 R      35  68  58 15 14  2  0  6   8  2  1  7 22 .241 .343 .586  .929 34   1   2  1  0   0   0  .267   119   142
Within 2 R      44  97  86 19 20  2  0  7  14  5  2  7 32 .233 .302 .500  .802 43   2   2  1  1   0   0  .271    90   110
Within 3 R      49 121 106 21 27  3  0  8  18  6  2 10 42 .255 .333 .509  .843 54   2   3  1  1   0   0  .333   101   122
Within 4 R      54 138 121 25 31  3  0 10  21  6  3 10 50 .256 .336 .529  .865 64   2   5  1  1   0   0  .339   106   128
Margin  4 R     19  35  31  7  7  3  0  1   5  0  0  3  9 .226 .314 .419  .734 13   0   1  0  0   0   1  .286    78    95
Ahead           46 107  92 19 20  4  0  5  16  5  3  9 34 .217 .318 .424  .742 39   1   5  0  1   0   1  .278    80    92
Behind          23  39  36  6 12  2  0  2   5  0  0  3 17 .333 .385 .556  .940 20   0   0  0  0   0   0  .588   126   159

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 7/25/2017.

 

You're part of the way there, juicyoda...it doesn't work on the Dark Side.

 

This is the part where I point out the extremely small sample size to justify my argument, but that's lame. If you guys like Jake in these types of situations that's fine. I certainly don't. He looks over matched in way too many of his AB's. Also, his stats this year are skewed because of the uncharacteristically strong start he had, the OPS numbers especially. I don't see Jake's high OPS numbers as anything more than a statistical anomaly. And I don't really know how to explain some of the clutch numbers, but I don't buy them.

 

This better for you?


[thead][/thead]

Split	GS	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	TB	GDP	HBP	SH	SF	IBB	ROE	BAbip	tOPS+	sOPS+
2 outs RISP	24	28	24	11	7	1	0	1	8	0	0	2	7	.292	.393	.458	.851	11	0	2	0	0	0	1	.375	109	130
Late Close	15	19	16	7	6	0	0	2	2	1	0	3	9	.375	.474	.750	1.224	12	0	0	0	0	0	0	.800	191	245
Tie Game	20	27	24	7	6	0	0	4	5	1	0	1	8	.250	.308	.750	1.058	18	1	1	1	0	0	0	.167	141	167
Within 1 R	35	68	58	15	14	2	0	6	8	2	1	7	22	.241	.343	.586	.929	34	1	2	1	0	0	0	.267	119	142
Within 2 R	44	97	86	19	20	2	0	7	14	5	2	7	32	.233	.302	.500	.802	43	2	2	1	1	0	0	.271	90	110
Within 3 R	49	121	106	21	27	3	0	8	18	6	2	10	42	.255	.333	.509	.843	54	2	3	1	1	0	0	.333	101	122
Within 4 R	54	138	121	25	31	3	0	10	21	6	3	10	50	.256	.336	.529	.865	64	2	5	1	1	0	0	.339	106	128
Margin 4 R	19	35	31	7	7	3	0	1	5	0	0	3	9	.226	.314	.419	.734	13	0	1	0	0	0	1	.286	78	95
Ahead	46	107	92	19	20	4	0	5	16	5	3	9	34	.217	.318	.424	.742	39	1	5	0	1	0	1	.278	80	92
Behind	23	39	36	6	12	2	0	2	5	0	0	3	17	.333	.385	.556	.940	20	0	0	0	0	0	0	.588	126	159

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 7/25/2017.

 

No argument there. We all expected him to tail off, and he has, but who else would you want as a 4th OFer/defensive replacement/injury starter (ala right now) in CF? Considering his glove and the fact that he typically bats 9th in the best offense in MLB, is there a better option around?

eta: just looked at the game thread and saw the lineup. I be smrt. Really looking forward to seeing Fisher in CF, draft-time scouting reports be damned!

 

I completely agree. Jake is extremely valuable in his role. No argument there. I wouldn't want anyone else. (except maybe Fisher in the near future depending on how he hits.) But for the present moment, Aoki is hot, Fisher deserves a chance, and Jake seems to be scuffling a bit. (he may be banged up)

 

Both of those posts were in response to a post that you made regarding his situational hitting being sub par. Not sure how your response fits juicy's post. On Buck's post, he just is showing you what Jake has done in situational hitting and that it does not fit your post. I have no problem with not trusting Jake based on his whole body of work. That just isn't the same as saying Marisnick is sub par at situational hitting.

 

I responded by saying that the sample sizes behind those stats Buck presented were too small to convince me they were pertinent, to which Buck didn't disagree. I'm not sure what else to say. If you like Jake over Aoki/Fisher right now, so be it, but Hinch and I seem to be on the same page.

 

I like Jake as the 4th/5th OF on a playoff roster for defensive purposes. I like that a lot.

 

Yes I like that too. I'm not sure how this turned into a playoff roster discussion. Fisher would really have to murder the ball to leave Jake/Aoki off.

 

Because I reserve the right to make a conversational left turn whenever I want?

They'll have an extra roster spot in the playoffs (minus 1 pitcher in the pen,) for a guy like Fisher or ???.

 

Yes you do sir, my apologies. I didn't realize there would be one extra playoff roster spot. Who knows.

 

Oh no, I didn't mean an extra roster spot, but they won't carry 13 or maybe even 12 pitchers like teams do during the season. For example, in the '15 ALDS the Stros had 11 pitchers and 14 position players. Right now the Stros are at 13 fielders and 12 pitchers, those numbers have been swapped the rest of the year.

 

I'm not trying to convince you to trust Marisnick. I've said nothing about Aoki or Fisher. Claiming Hinch is on your side when you are reading things into my post that aren't there isn't appropriate. I said to judge Marisnick by his body of work. Unless you think Marisnick's career up to this point has indicates he is a great hitter, you should be able to figure out that I don't have much trust Marisnick in the batter's box.

I'm saying you are the one that brought up his situational hitting is sub par. Situational hitting is always going to have sample size problems as it takes too many years to get reasonable data. If you understand that the data set is too small to be pertinent, just leave off the "situational".

 

I can't figure out what you are trying to do here. It seems like you are really reaching to find something to disagree about. From what I can understand we agree that the situational hitting stats aren't all that pertinent. I don't have to leave "situational" out of my post. It's what I believe. I would prefer pretty much anyone at the plate other than him in big situations.

 

I think the moral of this whole story is that @juicystream showed us that it's possible to post graphs from B-R. We'll worry about the "how" later.