Call me devil's advocate, but Whitley's emergence makes me even more convinced that it's okay to part with good prospects and go get an arm. The minor league system under Luhnow has proven that it will continue to churn out potential stars. Every year, there are 2 or 3 new "untouchables" added to the list. Luhnow will re-stock whatever we lose.
Probably an insider, but I didn't catch that part. They definitely didn't say, "I think Houston is the front-runner". Looked up Whitley stats and his age, WHIP, and K-ratio really stand out, especially his first 3 games at A+.
Found the article. It's from BOB Nightengale: https://www.usatoday.com/story/spor...line-rumors-sonny-gray-jd-martinez/484205001/
This is a hot take. 90 days ago there isn't anyone on earth who would say Whitley is "light years" ahead of Martes. Let's hope opposing teams overreact that much in valuing Whitley.
This is what will always happen with prospects... and arbitrary rank lists. Also, hanging on to these guys well after they lose their prospect status can have deleterious effects as well... Joe Musgrove was worth more 2 years ago (or last year) than he is now.
Jon Morosi saying the 'Stros are interested in Samardzija. Signed for three more yrs @ 18 mil per. Is he really an upgrade over Morton? Think I'd pass.
Keith Law just released his list with Whitley at 36 three days ago. Baseball America released their list with Whitley at 58 ten days ago. I get that these lists are continually changing, but Whitley has not suddenly jumped into the top 10-15 based on one start, even as excellent as it was.
I get that Whitley is an excellent prospect having an excellent year, but Martes is currently facing major league hitters, not those in A ball. And, by the way, you should review Martes accomplishments as a 19 year old in A and A+. His dominance is what led to him being a top 15 prospect.
I know I'm likely a sucker for "the next great one" re: prospects... but I'd be happier giving up Martes than I would Whitley.
Verlander movement from Tigers. Tigers Reportedly Willing To Include Some Cash In Verlander Trade https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/07/justin-verlander-trade-rumors-tigers-include-cash.html July 17th, 2017 at 2:24pm CST • By Steve Adams Two weeks ago, it was reported that while the Tigers were willing to discuss Justin Verlander in trades, they sought a significant prospect return and weren’t inclined to include any financial compensation to offset his sizable contract. Now, MLB.com’s Jon Morosi tweets that the Tigers have softened that stance and are willing to include “some” cash in a theoretical trade to help facilitate a deal. Verlander also has a full no-trade clause, though, so he’d need to green-light any deal the Tigers are interested in making, if such an opportunity even arises. The 34-year-old Verlander is midway through the fifth season of a back-loaded seven-year, $180MM contract that calls for him to earn $28MM each year from now through 2019. Of this year’s $28MM, about $11.6MM remains, so adding that to the $56MM he’s owed in 2018-19 brings the total bill to just a shade under $68MM. Exactly what constitutes “some” cash for the Tigers isn’t clear, but given their desire to acquire top-shelf prospects, one can only imagine that the Tigers would need to pay off a significant amount of that remaining $68MM. For all the name value that Verlander brings to the table, his 2017 performance has been underwhelming. His 4.4 BB/9 rate is the worst of his career, and his 8.4 K/9 rate is a notable departure from the 10.0 mark he posted in last year’s brilliant rebound campaign. Verlander’s chase rate, swinging-strike rate and contact rate are all among the worst of his career, and his 38.1 percent hard-contact rate represents a nearly 10 percent increase over his 2016 level. Beyond that, he’s averaging fewer than six innings per start for the first time as a Major Leaguer. That’s a host of red flags, but to be fair to Verlander, his velocity is as strong as ever (95.1 mph average fastball), and his strikeout and home-run rates are still better than those of a league-average starter. There’s certainly value in the big righty, even if his 4.66 ERA isn’t anything to write home about. Verlander brings a wealth of postseason experience to the table, and given the proximity of last year’s dominance — 227 2/3 innings, 3.04 ERA, 10.0 K/9, 2.3 BB/9 — one can hardly rule out a return to form. But, this year’s plethora of troublesome indicators will also make teams reluctant to surrender a haul of prospects, even with a chunk of his salary included. FanRag’s Jon Heyman, for instance, recently reported that there’s been little to no serious interest in Verlander to this point given all of the hurdles in the way of a trade. One exec with another AL club told ESPN’s Buster Olney this weekend: “If you trade a player with that kind of history, you want something to show for it coming back. I’m not sure they can get that.” Talk of a Verlander trade probably won’t let up even in the seemingly likely event that he remains with the Tigers beyond July 31, however. That huge financial commitment makes it likely that he’ll clear revocable trade waivers in August, at which point he’ll again be free to be traded to any club (so long as he waives his no-trade clause to approve the deal). And if no deal comes to fruition in August, then his name figures to be frequently mentioned this winter as well.
I absolutely do not want him. He's the height of mediocrity. He's having a terrible season and has limited playoff experience (a total of 3 IP). I'd much rather stay pat with McHugh and Keuchel coming back than to trade actual assets and be stuck with that contract. Yes, he's averaging over 6IP per start...but it's for a terrible team well out of the playoff race. There's no game-to-game importance any more. With the way he's pitching, he would not average 6IP with a contender. He simply would not improve the team at all.
Martes's K%-BB% of 20.1 is dominant in A+ at age 19 in 35 innings. For guys under 20 with at least 10 innings pitched in the Carolina League, here is a list of every pitcher with a K%-BB% over 35% since 2006 (oldest minor league data on Fangraphs): Forrest Whitley (39.3%) Over 50% of ABs against Whitley have either been a strikeout or a pop up. So there is dominant and then there is no one has been as dominant in over a decade dominant. I expect a lot of regression, but even if he doesn't strike anyone out in the next 15 innings, his K%-BB% will still be about where Martes was at a similar level and age in about 30 innings total.
I'd give up Martes well before Whitley. I've been blown away by Whitley this year. He is absolutely mowing guys down at age 19. He's a pitcher, so injury is always a concern, but I'm definitely a believer in him being a TOR guy and I mean in the near future.
Not true Go back and check some of my posts. I said the only untouchables were Tucker/Whitley before the season started. Whitley was scouted/signed off on by Nolan Ryan. That always carries a lot of weight with me.
Why did you focus solely on his A+ stats and completely ignore the much larger sample from A ball? Are you seriously trying to make a case for that level of dominance based off 15 innings? It is hard to take you seriously when you feel the need to do that much cherry picking.
The farm gets replenished with at least one projectable, potential top 100, prospect each and every year. At the same time, this organization has traded young pitchers they don't feel great about, or those that have injury risk.... if they hang on to them (even though early returns on Musgrove aren't necessarily glowing yet), they have to have some sort of beat on them. But, of course, you have to give up value to get value.
790 guys were referencing Bob Nightingales prediction in the USA Today article today, so it's pure speculation. Nightingale also predicts Justin Wilson to Houston for Derek Fisher. https://www.usatoday.com/story/spor...line-rumors-sonny-gray-jd-martinez/484205001/
Martes was around 9k per 9ip and Whitley is over 13k per 9ip at the same age and level. Very few have done what Whitley is doing right now. Not Kershaw. Not king Felix. Not Josh Beckett. Not Dylan Bundy. Kopech did it but he was a year older. Now he is a top 10 prospect. Whitley would not be involved in a Sonny gray trade if it were me. Give them martes and add another guy if need be.
A+ is a higher level. Not cherrypicking when I picked stat based on highest level. Whitley was significantly better at A ball than Martes as well which you would know if you looked at the stats instead of going with the ad hominem. Feel free to to look at stats for a 19 year old pitcher with at least 15 innings in the Carolina League and in Midwest League over the last decade to see if you can find a guy with a higher combined K%-BB%. I can't.
