If they are too far away to be used in a trade, they are too far away to be considered replacements for near future performance. Can't have it both ways. This would be the third year in a row that the Astros depended heavily on rookies for making the playoffs. In 2015 and 2016, the rookies answered the call...granted the veterans, most notably the returning Cy Young Winner and Gomez, let them down last year. Martes may falter (but odds are if he falters as a SP, he'll still be a good reliever), but I can almost guarantee some Astros rookie will contribute in 2017 and the Astros are counting on it even if they don't know who it is. Trading away Martes just removes the most likely rookie to contribute. Perez's odds are near zero. On Tucker, I think you are drastically underestimating what it means for a guy to be as highly rated a prospect as he is while being in A+ at his age. He could suck in the majors, but I doubt minor league pitchers are going to slow him down too much. He isn't the boom or bust type of prospect that has trouble making contact. He'll be up in 2018 probably just after Super 2 even though it is unlikely he's needed for a playoff chase. Even if he's non-factor in 2018, he'll be in majors well before Celestino with a good chance of actually being a player.
Not realistic? The Astros made the WS in 2005 by winning the wild card by one game (albeit with 89 wins). They went 12-4 against the Reds who won 73 games. They were 5-11 against the Cardinals. They were 1-5 against the Braves.
I think a great comparison for Tucker is Christian Yelich. Yelich is an incredibly unique hitter (fangraphs has several articles on his off-the-chart Hard% and GB%), but I do think Tucker could emulate Yelich's first couple seasons once he gets the call. Personally, I'm a huge Yelich fan. I love his approach and the way he plays. I'd be ecstatic to have a Yelich 2.0 in Houston. That type of hitter would would be warmly welcomed in 2018 or 2019, and I think Tucker would immediately help HOU in a pennant race if his early seasons mirror that of Yelich.
Gutting a minor league systems best prospect is only acceptable when your one or two guys away. Teams have imploded in the past, due to injury, scandal, regression, bickering among teammates, etc.... It's too early to go all in, I repeat too early. I am of the opinion, I'd rather pay a little more at the trade deadline, and see what all the fuss over our prospects is about, before giving them all away for someone we may not even need. It is pretty much accepted that at this point, that among the teams who have a realistic chance are the Astros. So it is Boston, Houston, and Cleveland leading the pack. I'm glad the Astros are practicing patience. Like Luhnow said it's about now and the future.
people aren't talking about just getting in. Houston teams are always just getting in. Winning in the postseason is the conversation here. Great teams (and usually the ones than counter great pitching/hitting thoroughly in the season) are the ones holding the crown.
Reds traded Dan Straily for 3 pretty good prospects: http://www.cincinnati.com/story/spo...ose-trading-dan-straily-3-prospects/96765634/ I don't know that much about prospects, but that appears to be a really good haul for a guy that the Astros traded for a marginal backup catcher last year. Also, it seems to indicate the price for starting pitching is astronomical.
His point is that the MLB playoffs is a crapshoot. Between 1979 and 2010, the WS winner lead the league in wins six times. Houston's goal is to win a championship, but to do so, your goal must be to consistently go to the playoffs, not to have the best record in any given year. Thats how the Cardinals and Giants built championships. Yes, certain years require going "all in". And surely, teams need to be fortified in certain areas to help sustain postseason runs. But getting in, over and over and over again, is the key to winning a championship.
I think people that say it's purely a crapshoot don't understand the postseason either. Better teams still win more often. The trick is that what helps you win in the regular season is different from the postseason, so simply comparing wins is not very useful. A #5 pitcher, for example, is really valuable in the regular season as they start 15-20% of your games, while they start 0% in the postseason. A #1 is more valuable in the postseason, because instead of 20-25% of your games, they might start 30-40% of your postseason games depending on the scheduling. Similarly, a deep bullpen is less valuable than a few elite top-tier arms in a series where you use your top relievers a lot more, etc. The better team may not win 80 or 90% of the time like in the NBA, for example. But a team that wins their division and has a 60% chance of winning each series has a 21% chance of winning the World Series. A team that wins a Wild Card spot (50/50 in the WC game) and has a 40% chance of winning each series has a 3% chance of winning the WS. Making the playoffs once with the first team gives you the same chance to win a WS as making the playoffs 7 times with the latter team.
It is a pretty big crapshoot. You do clearly want to win your division (one game is a hell of a risk, plus you won't be able to set your rotation for the division series), but beyond that? Not really important. What you need is guys to get hot and timely plays made. We see deeply flawed teams succeed in the postseason frequently.
2017 Draft Order Spoiler 1. Minnesota Twins 2. Cincinnati Reds 3. San Diego Padres 4. Tampa Bay Rays 5. Atlanta Braves 6. Oakland Athletics 7. Arizona Diamondbacks 8. Philadelphia Phillies 9. Milwaukee Brewers 10. Los Angeles Angels 11. Chicago White Sox 12. Pittsburgh Pirates 13. Miami Marlins 14. Kansas City Royals 15. Houston Astros 16. New York Yankees 17. Seattle Mariners 18. Detroit Tigers 19. San Francisco Giants 20. New York Mets 21. Baltimore Orioles 22. Toronto Blue Jays 23. Los Angeles Dodgers 24. Boston Red Sox 25. Washington Nationals 26. Texas Rangers 27. Chicago Cubs 28. Blue Jays (for Encarnacion) 29. Rangers (for Desmond) 30. Cubs (for Fowler) 31. Tampa Bay Rays 32. Cincinnati Reds 33. Oakland Athletics 34. Milwaukee Brewers 35. Minnesota Twins 36. Miami Marlins 37. Minnesota Twins 38. Cincinnati Reds 39. San Diego Padres 40. Tampa Bay Rays 41. Atlanta Braves 42. Pittsburgh Pirates 43. Oakland Athletic 44. Arizona Diamondbacks 45. Philadelphia Phillies 46. Milwaukee Brewers 47. Los Angeles Angels 48. Colorado Rockies 49. Chicago White Sox 50. Pittsburgh Pirates 51. Miami Marlins 52. Kansas City Royals 53. Houston Astros 54. New York Yankees 55. Seattle Mariners 56. St. Louis Cardinals 57. Detroit Tigers 58. San Francisco Giants 59. New York Mets 60. Baltimore Orioles 61. Toronto Blue Jays 62. Los Angeles Dodgers 63. Boston Red Sox 64. Cleveland Indians 65. Washington Nationals 66. Texas Rangers 67. Chicago Cubs 68. Arizona Diamondbacks 69. San Diego Padres 70. Colorado Rockies 71. Cleveland Indians 72. Pittsburgh Pirates 73. Kansas City Royals 74. Baltimore Orioles 75. St. Louis Cardinals 76. Minnesota Twins 77. Cincinnati Reds 78. San Diego Padres 79. Tampa Bay Rays 80. Atlanta Braves 81. Oakland Athletic 82. Arizona Diamondbacks 83. Philadelphia Phillies 84. Milwaukee Brewers 85. Los Angeles Angels 86. Colorado Rockies 87. Chicago White Sox 88. Pittsburgh Pirates 89. Miami Marlins 90. Kansas City Royals 91. Houston Astros 92. New York Yankees 93. Seattle Mariners 94. St. Louis Cardinals 95. Detroit Tigers 96. San Francisco Giants 97. New York Mets 98. Baltimore Orioles 99. Toronto Blue Jays 100. Los Angeles Dodgers 101. Boston Red Sox 102. Cleveland Indians 103. Washington Nationals 104. Texas Rangers 105. Chicago Cubs Luhnow continues to keep tabs on LH relief market but said "at this point I'm not sure that anything's going to get done there." A.J. Hinch said Jeff Bagwell, Craig Biggio & Phil Garner will each be in spring training at various points as guest instructors. Jeff Luhnow doesn't expect anything dramatic to happen in terms of bringing in another pitcher via trade heading into spring training Luhnow during Q and A at #Astros FanFest Fan Forum: "We talk trades on a daily basis. I don't know if anything is going to happen." Tyler White lost 35lbs since start of last season. #Astros asked him to add 10 since
Agree with a lot of this, but when all is said and done....very tough for a team that is in playoffs for 3 years to have better WS odds than team that is in playoffs for 5 years. Astros appear to be trying to be division winner for a lot of years instead of trying to have the best team possible this year. Also, having the best team on paper isn't going to help if you have injuries or just guys having bad years.
Which percentages? The 60% and 40%? I just made them up as examples - every team will be different. But historically, you could just to the past data in betting odds. What odds were the Cubs given to win each series last year as compared to the Wild Card teams? Over the long-haul, the betting odds will generally match the win %s (otherwise, there's an arbitrage opportunity and the betting odds would get adjusted). That is certainly true, but that's just the laws of math. Most teams have real flaws. Using my made up 60/40 match, your two best teams might each have a 20% chance of winning, but the other 8 teams still combine for a 60% chance of winning, so you're often still going to see lesser teams win - it's just the odds of your specific lesser team winning is much lower. Agree with this - in general, if you make the playoffs 5 years in a row, you're probably a very solid team capable of overcoming injuries/etc, so you're probably on the upper end of the spectrum. I'm not opposed to the concept - but projecting length of windows 4 or 5 years down the road is a tricky business. Look back 5 years and I'm not sure how many of the current good teams looked anything like they do now or if anyone projected to be what they are now. I don't agree here. Being the best and deepest team on paper meant that the Cubs could overcome the loss of what was expected to be a key piece in Schwarber. If you're a 85-90 win team to start, you don't have that margin of error that you have if you're a 100+ win team on paper. If the goal is to make the playoffs every year to give yourself more opportunities, being the best team on paper helps a lot to give you that buffer to make it year-in and year-out.
