I don't think the Astros will be in a position to drop $150,000,000 - $200,000,000 for an ace in free agency. Crain is leveraged out his ass and the team is still recovering from the bankruptcy. I don't doubt that Luhnow would move the prospects necessary to trade for a true ace. He was willing to move a number of prospects for Hamels... and the Astros made a strong push for Sale at the deadline. What I think it more likely, is that there will only be 1-2 aces available. Had the Indians struggled this season; there would have been another 2 ace starters available.... same with Miami. I think we agree that there is a lot of unknowns.... it is similar (on a smaller level) to what the Rockets have gone through trying to get players to put next to Harden. If all else fails, I think they will go after someone like Michael Pineda. The ability is evident, but he has never entirely put it together.
IMO, the answer is yes. You need to manage your risks appropriately. Even if you are certain 2015 Keuchel AND healthy Lance are coming back next year...there's a decent shot that either of them has a repeat of 2016. I think if either one comes true, you need that even-more-reliable front-line starter. If *both* happen again (which is certainly possible also)...then even moreso. If everything comes together and those 2 + the new guy are all clicking, then you're talking about WS favorites.
First of all: ouch. Secondly, this makes me wonder... could Springer be dealt? There were these weird, random rumors about him last year (to the Cubs, IIRC) - and, if you think about it.... they have a GLUT of players they need to crack open without a lot of available positions. As of today, they have '17 starters penciled in at 1B (Reed), 2B, SS, 3B (Bregman/Gurriel), LF (Bregman/Gurriel), RF + UI and 4th OF. That leaves only CF and DH as essentially the only open positions with Hernandez, Kemp, Gattis, Tucker in the mix. (I'm discounting C.) Would a package of McCullers + Springer + lower-level prospects land Chris Sale?
Allegedly... they spent enough on a relative unknown in Gurriel, along with continuing to commit max resources to the draft signings, and all the while payroll guaranteed to go up every year thanks to arbitration. Nobody is going to go to games at MMP unless the team is very good/exciting. The business side of the front office is well aware that in the short and long-run, that's the only sure-fire way to increase revenue. The answer still isn't to over-spend for an ace... never said that was needed... but I think the "Crane is too cheap, leveraged, has partners!" cries are not applicable now when it comes to bringing payroll up to acceptable (not extreme) levels. Throughout this whole process, they've done exactly what they said they would do vis-a-vis big league payroll.
I think that Springer is less likely to be dealt than McCullers. Would the Astros do it for the right package? I have no doubt. The issue with McCullers is health related. He is coveted by a number of teams, and the White Sox want players ready to contribute.
The Astros are leveraged. I was specifically talking about adding an ace pitcher through free agency. Do you think the Astros have the financial ability to drop $200,000,000 over seven seasons? It isn't a matter of being "cheap"...... it is a matter of being financially realistic. Dropping $45,000,000 is a lot different than dropping $200,000,000. I did not say they should or shouldn't spend that kind of money on an ace pitcher (David Price hasn't earned his money thus far). I was discussing that there are three ways to get an ace.... free agency, trade or develop them. I ruled signing one as a free agent out as a possibility, the Astros are not in a position to drop $200,000,000 for an ace. That leaves trade or developing them. As the Astros are not going to be drafting in the top 5 again, they will need to scout extremely well or sign them in the international market. Signing them in the international market means signing them at 16-17 years old usually; which means it could be 5 years before they are an "ace" at the big league level; by that point the Astros will possibly be losing players for financial reasons. So what does that leave? Trade, and the trade market is very hard to judge. The Astros have the young players teams covet; so that is probably the most likely route to adding an ace.
Again, I am not advocating for this... but I am advocating that they do spend something close to the $20-$25 million/year it would cost for a free agent ace pitcher on viable options (whether its to bolster the lineup or a pitcher on a shorter-term deal). The money earmarked for Hamels went mostly to Rasmus.... but that was only for this year. My point was that they're still in the position to add payroll, just not dumping it all on one overpriced player.... regardless of the previous leveraging that Crane suffered from during the original sale (also, the more time that passes, and the more attendance rises, revenues continue to be greater than they were at the time of bankruptcy... which has to be part of the explanation for a continuing rising payroll). As far as trading for one... its still going to be difficult. Other teams will get in the bidding war. They all may be willing to let go of their top 5 prospects (much like the Rangers did), and that may again be something that Luhnow doesn't want to do.
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">The <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Astros?src=hash">#Astros</a> have recalled right-handed pitcher Brad Peacock from Triple A Fresno. James Hoyt has been optioned to Triple A.</p>— Houston Astros (@astros) <a href="https://twitter.com/astros/status/766726107928354816">August 19, 2016</a></blockquote> <script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
Man... all sorts of fail when a team demotes you for Brad Peacock. At least those calling for him early in the year now realize that not all attributes translate automatically. Hopefully he'll work on some things and be in the mix for next year.
If last year, some team had offered something similar to this for Keuchel, I would have said no. Upgrade those lower level prospects to upper echelon ones, and then I would have considered it. I use this analogy because the Sox have to think about Sale much like we thought about Dallas last year, except with an attitude.
