He was a deserving all-star. Lone rep made him a lock, but he was the 2nd best catcher in the AL behind Joe Mauer that year.
The qualifying offer amount is estimated to be $16.7M next year. http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/07/2017-qualifying-offer-estimated-at-16-7mm.html I'll go on record and guess that NO Astro will get a QO this offseason, and I don't even think that the decision is that hard.
He definitely would be. Stassi doesn't look like a major league baseball player. We do not have a catcher in the organization right now who could do better than Castro, and I am not a Castro fan at all. If they let him go, they will have to pick up another veteran from somewhere.
Ramos and Weiters are alternatives to Castro in free agency. Vogt, Norris, and Suzuki are options via trade. Heineman, Stassi, and (maybe) Stubbs are internal options that could backup Gattis.
I think Fister will, and I think they'd be ok if he accepted it. A guy of his magnitude would want at least a 3 year deal of $30-40M or so. Kazmir (same age as Fister) got $48M over three years. If he could keep it stuff at about the same level, he'd be worth the $17M.
Anyone hear the Hinch interview on MLB radio this morning? I caught the very end and he was talking about Gomez when I got in my car, but I only caught about 3-4 seconds of the Gomez part and they moved on to other issues. Would be interested to hear what he said, although I know he can't really be honest about if they are considering moving on from him or not
I'd give Heineman a shot to backup Gattis, but no way I wouldn't go into spring training without a veteran option or being prepared to trade for one. Stassi will be out of options.
Granted I thought this about Rasmus last offseason too, but i think Fister is fringy QO guy who'd probably best be locked up by the Astros for a 3 year/$36-42m contract. If they can get a steady 2-3 WAR each year from him and only guarantee half to 60% of what Ian Kennedy got, I'd consider that a win.
That is quite possible, and you may be right. But if I am Fister and his camp, why not just accept the QO for $17M, and then again next year when it bumps up to $18M? That is $35M over 2 years, he'd be way better off doing that than "settling" for a 3 year/$30-$40M deal. I get the injury risk would be the biggest deterrent, but the QO amount has increased to such a high number, it makes a more compelling case for a player of his caliber to just go year by year. Personally, I think there will be only a handful of obvious choices to offer the QO, but many teams will hesitate to offer it to their free agents to be. This past year was the first year anyone took the QO, and there were several people. I think players and their representation made the obvious observation that most teams are hesitant to lose draft picks, they are just so valuable. That's just a guess, I suppose I don't have much to substantiate my gut feeling.
Because there is a huge performance risk. Look at Rasmus. What is he going to get? Fister has a lot of advanced stats going against him and he is a year removed from a bad season.
It's not just injury risk (which is significant, especially as he gets older)...it's also performance risk. He's outperformed his peripherals significantly this year (if it continues through end of season), and he's improved over 2015 even though he's on the wrong side of 30. Not to mention, the Astros would be less likely--almost a definite no imo--to give him a QO the following year if he actually accepts it this year. The only question is--will there be a team out there offering 2/30 or 3/40? If so, I think Fister 100% accepts it given the risks I described above.
So there might also be a performance risk. Haha thanks fellas, I appreciate it. Y'all bring up solid points, but I'm still a little skeptical. I think he jumps all over $17M guaranteed. Heck, even coming off a poor year, we gave him a 1 year, $7M deal. I would think a contending team looking for an innings eater would give him that, at a minimum, after next year. So as a floor, I think he'd be looking at 2 years, $24M, if he accepted the QO. But to y'alls point, there has been some really big money thrown at pretty bad starting pitching. But still, how many front offices are jumping at the bit to offer a solid-yet-unspectacular 32 year old pitcher, who has only pitched 200+ innings twice in his career, who would also cost a pick, a 3 year / $40M offer?
Oh right, the other important point that's related to your question--2016-17 is projected to be an extremely thin FA market overall, and especially for starting pitching. Teams will have money to spend and no one to spend it on...alleviates the concern about someone spending the money IMO.
I don't know what to think about Fister. He is having a great year, but his advanced stats suggest he is not just over achieving, they suggest that he is awful. 4.49 FIP, 4.76 xFIP, 4.87 SIERA. Not sure how much stock people put into these stats in here, but that's pretty awful. I'd be ok with giving him a QO. I think at this point in his career, he won't get any better than this. If he signs, great. Decent deal for a solid starting option without committing long-term. If he declines, great. We get a draft pick. That's what I'd do if I were the Astros (what I did in OOTP baseball along with Valbuena and Gomez, got 3 1st round pick out of it )
Yeah, people are acting like it's the conservative move when it's definetely not. I thought Rasmus made a nice, calculated wager when he took the QO this year. He failed spectacularly, and may be done in the MLB. Still made $15 mill this year though. If someone were to accept a QO, they are essentially taking the money now while wagering on themselves that they'll have a good-decent year to get a legit offer the next year.
Well, point taken but it only furthers mine as well. What the hell happened honestly? The way he swings and whips the bat out of his own hands would suggest an injury to me. It kinda surprises me that people want gattis over Castro next year when gattis swings and anything in the dirt, can't field anything in the dirt and has injury issues associated with catching.
I don't think Rasmus or Castro get the QO. I do think that there is a better than 50% chance that Fister does if he ends the season strong. He is 32 years old, and I believe the Astros would rather risk him flaming out on a 1 year $17,000,000 year (or get the comp pick) than sign him to a 3 year $36,000,000 deal. The Astros are likely to want payroll flexibility. A one year deal they can survive him failing, but two or three years of dead money would be difficult to swallow. Valbuena is an interesting case. Defensively he is very good. His slugging percentage appears to be legitimate. It is at 459% this year and has been in the 440% range the last 3 seasons. His OBP is consistently adding 9-10% above his batting average, which isn't elite, but it is solid. It really comes down to whether teams really believe he is a 260 hitter or the 220 hitter he was last season. If the Astros believe that the market believes he is an .800 OPS player, he is likely to be offered the QO just with the hope of getting the compensation pick. When it is all said and done, my guess is Fister gets the QO only. The Astros then turn first base into a rotating position like they hope to do with DH.
