Did you know evs were popular before gas engines? I don't think electrics vehicles are very complicated. The biggest issue is the batteries. If someone one could come up with a better battery you would have more EVs.
I just received an email from Tesla thanking me for my pre order. First line : "Thank you for helping us make history and introduce Model 3 to the world" Last line " We're currently increasing our production plans to minimize the wait for Model 3, so reserve your spot now." ?????:confusedconfused: First an acknowledgement that I pre ordered, and then telling me to reserve...
I got that email 24 hrs after i pre ordered. The new email I'm talking about was just received today.
Two reviews just out for the fugly Model X. http://www.wsj.com/articles/tesla-model-x-electric-meets-extravagant-1460046720 http://www.thedrive.com/new-cars/2875/why-the-tesla-model-x-will-make-you-want-an-american-suv
For those asking about the federal tax rebate, I was actually wrong about the 3 months 100% rebate after 200k is reached. It is actually 6 full months of 100% rebate, which means you will have a pretty good chance of getting it. Further clarification here: <iframe width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/7WgVnxhVl-w" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>
The same email i referred to that sounded a little contradicting? I also just got a 3rd email again confirming my pre order.
Here is the Galleria line which I guess answers my OP. <iframe width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/kUys03bcRVc" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>
So 4/1 to 10/1 is the 1st Q and the "wildcard" Q combined, as denoted in the video. If vehicles are "pre-ordered" and not necessarily fully paid for, will consumers that bought a vehicle during this 6 month period get the 100% rebate when it comes time to fully pay for the car? For instance, if I were to put down a 1k deposit any time before the 6 months was up (after introductions), but I don't pay for the car until a week before it comes out in 2017, will I get 100% of the tax credit, or only a fraction of that 100%?
No. The 1st Q and "wildcard" Q starts when Tesla delivers its 200,000th car in the US. Not ordered or preordered, but delivered. Currently Tesla has delivered a total of roughly 60k cars in the US since its inception, which means it still has roughly 140k more to go until the phase out starts. When that will hit is unknown, but we get guess with a good degree of confidence based on their production ramp up plans. Tesla plans on delivering 80-90k cars globally this year, and historically 50% has gone to the US(so 40-45k this year). Also Tesla has grown at a 50% yoy rate, so we can speculate that their deliveries in 2017 will be 120k(60k in US). This tells us that if they ramp up according to plan, Tesla will hit roughly 60k+45k+60K= 165k in the US by the end of 2017 when Model 3 is set for production. Which means the 1st Q and "wildcard" Q before phase out should hit sometime in 2018. If your car is delivered anytime during or before that, you will be eligible for the full tax credit. The one caveat to all of the above timelines is Telsa holding to their planned production ramp. As much as the media is harping now about Tesla's history of delays and can they make all the cars - I can almost guarantee that Tesla will NOT stick to their planned production ramp and will in fact speed it up. That does not mean they will plan to start Model 3 production before 2017, but I do believe it will mean they will no longer target 500k production in 2020 which was their long stated target, but rather 500k in 2019 or even 2018, which means many more reservation holders will get their cars sooner.
First of all, I appreciate your optimism and informative posts about Tesla. I am cheering hard for them to overturn the industry and move automobiles away from fossil fuels as quickly as possible. However, the notion of ramping up to 500K by 2018 is ridiculous. 2020 won't even happen. When I asked before, you said it was all about money. But money by itself doesn't solve huge logistics problems in the real world. These things take time. I don't doubt Tesla will get to and exceed 500K. It just won't happen as fast as we want.
You could be right. I do know for a fact that they are rethinking their production ramp - which would only mean speeding it up. To what extent we will find out soon. Currently they are trying to balance near term profitability with long term growth. This means judicious spending on capital expenditures in order to show a profit to Wall St.(since that is the big question mark detractors keep hanging on to) Which requires reining in production build out in exchange for positive cash flow - this was implied on their Q4 earnings report. What does this mean? Tesla had $1.2B in the bank before the Model 3 unveil(so $1.5B now). That is a fraction of the $5B needed to bring the Gigafactory to full production. The tooling in their Fremont plant to enable Model 3 production will require billions more. They have further plans of production expansion into Europe and China, building factories there - billions more. It is estimated that they will need at least $11 billion to reach these goals. Where will the money come from? The current plan is to pay for it incrementally with the profit from selling Model S and Model X. This means that their production ramp is limited to how much profit they generate from Model S and X. If they had $11B laying in the bank right now, they could start preparing and ramping all this today. They don't. So they have to make it first before they can spend it. One day they may be limited by logistics, but today we are limited by money. This is what I meant by my reply to you earlier. What has changed since the Model 3 unveil is that after showing Wall st the tremendous demand, more than anyone anticipated, the capital markets will be wide open to Tesla. This means instead of waiting around to generate money to spend on their build out, now they can raise it from investors immediately. I know it is money that is limiting their ramp and not logistics right now because they are currently pushing their finances to the brink - so much so that tons of analysts and media on Wall st and Main st have been predicting doom and bankruptcy for Tesla for years. If they simply wanted to show a profit they could have done that by remaining a boutique automaker building a handful of cars, instead they have spent their every last dime and then some to ramp up production. So if they only had more money - they could do it faster. Eventually they will run into logistic issues, but right now all indications point to money issues. Money issues that have just been solved once they raise billions in new capital in the coming weeks.
As I speculated before, today Tesla updated their ramp up plans and they are now targeting 500k for 2018 and 1M by 2020. This is good news for anyone who stood in line to order, as the likelihood of you receiving the federal tax credit just increased. Also for anyone who hesitated on preordering because they didn't want to wait 4 years, even if you order today, you are likely to get it by 2018. http://www.techinsider.io/tesla-will-build-500000-cars-per-year-by-2018-2016-5
Also, since Tesla is known to be late when it comes to product launches, the internal goal for Model 3 launch(for Tesla and their suppliers) is set at July 1 next year. This will most likely not be met(because it is so ambitious), so that the original late 2017 launch date can hold more firm. Target Model 3 production for 2017: 100-200K Meaning, if you stood in line, you have a good shot of getting your car next year.
I never heard of the July launch date, didn't think people could possibly get it that early. Also from your last sentence, does that mean odds aren't that great for getting it next year if you pre ordered online?
