But getting hung on numbers is what's happening if you say Gattis had a decent year. Yes his RBI'S were ok only because he had men on base all the time. I can't get over all the wasted ops we had with RISP and came up empty and it's not all on him but as a DH he gets alot of the blame. I don't have the resources to see the rally killing at bats that haunted us in soooooo many games where manufacturing a run was damn near impossible. I know you guys remember how painful it was to watch this offense at times.
I cannot think of enough reasonable explanations for why we shouldn't sign Cespedes. - Doesn't cost any picks or prospects - We don't have any big, long term contract on the books. - Rasmus and Gomez together make $25 million, and BOTH expire at the end of this coming season. - We are currently 25th in the league in payroll. We might go as high as 23rd after Gattis and Castro go through arbitration. - If we sign Cespedes to a $20 million per year deal, our payroll will climb to only 16th in the league.
I am happy with our OF as it stands actually. I have no problem passing on those guys either. But when it comes to SP, I just cant help feeling we need one more dependable arm. As things are, if one guy gets hurt or regresses, it will be tough for us. I'll come out and say it. I think both Keuchel (a little) and McHugh to regress. Granted, there hasn't been a lot out there on the SP front. But when this is the case, you can make up for it (somewhat) by bolstering the bats, and we haven't done that either.
Just trade for Jonathan Lucroy.... He makes pennies, is under team control for two more years and is begging to be dealt. Plus Luhnow gets rid of someone he isn't overly fond of.
I expect Brewers want league to see him catch after concussion. Teams are usually not willing to pay a healthy price until a guy shows he's back to healthy. Physical can only show so much.
Yup. There will *always* be an Upton/Cespedes caliber player on the market. We're not in a position where we we direly need either. I only sign Cespedes if its a price we can't afford to pass on. Devil's advocate, I wouldn't mind signing Cespedes if it meant a Gomez-centered deal for Carlos Corrasco, but I don't see the Indians doing that, and I'd prefer to keep Springer over Gomez.
the cost is the main issue there, right? Sounds like the Brewers are asking for an arm and a leg, though I haven't heard specifics of what that actually means
Primarily 2 reasons. 1.We don't know how good he will be offensively (2 great seasons, 2 mediocre seasons). If he hits like he did in 2013 and 2014, than Gattis, Springer, Gomez and Rasmus might all be better hitters. If you hand out a big contract it's for a guaranteed upgrade who starts everyday, not a guy who could be a platoon player. 2.Guys like him are always available in the off season. The only logical reason for signing him is if the market has fallen to a point where he becomes a long term bargain, or if we have a huge deal in place to move Gomez.
But if you compare our starting pitching now to the beginning of last season, it's much improved McCullers and Fiers are a huge improvement And we easily have the prospects to go get another guy as needed just like last year
While not predictive for the future, Gattis last year was actually pretty good in those RISP type situations. No one on base: OPS of 0.705. Runners on: 0.807 RISP: 0.805 Bases Loaded: 0.962 (very small sample, obviously) So there weren't as many wasted opportunities as you may remember - he did his job when people were on. Part of it was that when he did fail, it often looked ugly and was more memorable. His real struggles were when he just needed to get on base for other people.
It probably sticks in people's minds because, like many on the Astros team, Gattis strikes out a lot. So there were probably plenty of situations that people remember where he couldn't get a guy home from 3rd base with less than 2 out. Not saying I remember a lot of that personally but I could see that sticking in someone's mind. Hitting in the spot he did he probably would have had more of those opportunities than most, if not all, of the other Astros hitters. Edit: Though looking at the stats now, he actually hit really, really well in runners on 3rd scenarios (didn't find one that broke it down to number of outs).
Just saw Rosenthal post something hinting that Cespedes wants 5 years $122 million with an opt out after 2 years. Nope.
That seems very reasonable, though likely out of Astros price range. Not great. Not bad. Was thinking it would be 6 or 7 years, but those years aren't likely worth much.
why is it out of Astros Range (are they note one of the bottom teams in spending) Dont they have alot of money? Crowded outfield? (whos cares) you trade one or 2 for a legit Starting Pitcher
I have heard nothing from any source close to the Astros that they would spend well over $100,000,000 on a player of Cespedes caliber.
Also, even if we had the money to spend, why would you lock it up into the most loaded position we already have on the system? Sometimes, the deal you sign is the one that you don't. On the flip side, if we do sign Cespedes... any change MIL would want Gomez and Tucker Lucroy? We can provide them an entire outfield at that point dating back to last year...
As Nook said, Astros payroll is about $100 million dollars. A quarter to a third of Cespedes contract's worth will likely be accumulated in the first year. So basically, about 30-40 million dollars (even if some of money is deferred evenly across contract, I expect Astros don't value each year the same). Astros are at about 90 million. At best, Cespedes contract would put Astros 20 million over, thus limiting flexibility through rest of offseason and during the season.
Wow - that's crazy. 33 ABs and 32 RBI in those scenarios, with a near 1.200 OPS. It did seem like he struck out or hit weak ground balls a lot in those scenarios, but apparently not.
I understand the logic, but if you carry this further, this is basically saying we will never sign any major free agent unless you get some weird deeply discounted rate. Guys like Davis, Cespedes, Kazmir, etc are all getting market value. If none of them make sense for us, then I don't see when any top-tier player ever would outside of a sweetheart hometown discount deal or an injury reclamation project, etc. It's not iike our finances are going to be much better in the future - more of our good players will hit arbitration and free agency and need to be paid.
The only way I could see a Cespedes deal would be that it is predicated on another move.... a situation where Gomez is dealt for prospects, and those prospects are flipped for Lucroy. I don't see the Brewers wanting Gomez, they are rebuilding........ but if the Astros could clear Gomez' salary ($9,000,000) and Jason Castro ($5,000), then they are in a better position to add Lucroy ($4,000,000) and Cespedes ($20,000,000/with opt out after year two)..... as the net increase in salary for 2016 is only $10,000,000.
