I think you're right. Assuming Colts win the last two and we drop one of the last two, we would have the same division record and they would be 4-4 to our 3-5 against common opponents (CAR, TB, ATL, MIA, NYJ, BUF, NE, NOLA) which would be the highest relevant tiebreaker. Spoiler TO BREAK A TIE WITHIN A DIVISION If, at the end of the regular season, two or more clubs in the same division finish with identical won-lost-tied percentages, the following steps will be taken until a champion is determined. Two Clubs Head-to-head (best won-lost-tied percentage in games between the clubs). Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the division. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference. Strength of victory. Strength of schedule. Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed. Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed. Best net points in common games. Best net points in all games. Best net touchdowns in all games. Coin toss
I'll take your word for it. So the magic number legitimately is 1. A soft 1 considering they can lose out and still get in.
Nope Colts would have beaten MIA ATL TB Texans would have beaten TB NYJ NO We are both 3-5 against common opponents.
Funny enough, if the Texans lose their next 2, the Colts drop their week 17 game against the Titans, and the Jags win out... the Jags win the division at 7-9
Future Trivia: Who was the starter the first time the Texans beat the Colts. . .. TJ Yates! LOL. . . maybe in the next playoff game we let him just take one snap and take a knee . .. . well the other knee. TJ is our lucky charm! Rocket River Get well soon
Ah good catch. I gave the Colts an extra win. If you play around on the playoff generator (i'm using NFL.com), there are very obscure ways that the Colts can sneak in if they go 2-0 to our 1-1 still. Basically NO, NYJ, and Cincy would have to lose about 5/6 and DEN and ATL have to win out. Denver and Cincy actually play next week and Atlanta vs NO in week 17, both of those games would have huge impact on tiebreakers according to this.
We have too large of a lead in SOV for the Colts to beat us. Even if all of the teams the Colts beat that we did not win out (Denver, Miami, Atlanta) and all the teams that Texans beat that the Colts did not lose out (New Orleans, Cincinnati, New York Jets), the Colts can't catch us. Rest easy.
https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2015/12/21/pro-hou-ind-grades/ Houston Texans Spoiler – RG Brandon Brooks (+5.5) is the Texans’ best offensive lineman. After an excellent 2014 season, where he ranked as the fourth-highest graded right guard in the league (+22.3), Brooks has struggled with consistency this year. He had a good start to the year, recording a +8.1 grade in the first five games, but had since tailed off with only one positively-graded game since. Brooks was back to his best against the Colts, finishing with the best offensive grade on the team. In pass protection, he allowed only a pair of hurries on 39 dropbacks and he moved people in the run game, finishing with a +4.7 grade in that facet of play. Brooks’ performance has boosted him to 23rd in our rankings this year, with a couple of weeks to keep climbing the list. – Despite being unable to use one of his hands, J.J. Watt still played a good game (+1.6) against the Colts. As a pass rusher, predominantly off the offensive right side, he had a sack, hit, and pair of hurries from 36 rushes, culminating in a +1.6 grade. Watt had offensive lineman beat a couple of other times, too, but quick releases prevented further pressure. In run defense, he picked up three stops from 19 snaps, but did miss a tackle. His most impressive play of the day came against the ground game. Watt was able to make a stop from DRE on a run over RG by driving LT Anthony Castonzo into the backfield, and then shedding him for a tackle around the line of scrimmage. Only an offsides penalty prevented Watt’s grade from being even higher. – While second-round pick Benardrick McKinney has had a good rookie year (+1.4), his partner at inside linebacker looks lost. Brian Cushing (-3.1) continues to struggle. He has just two positively-graded games, compared with nine negatively graded games since Week 4. Cushing has fallen to 39th amongst inside linebackers with this performance. In run defense, he made five tackles but only two of them were stops. As a pass rusher, he failed to generate any pressure on 15 rushes, and now has just one hit and five hurries from 138 attempts. Unsurprisingly, such a poor return sees him ranked last in pass rush productivity. Finally, Cushing also graded negatively in coverage, where he gave up a first down to Coby Fleener. Overall, he’s allowing a QB rating of 102.0 when targeted this year. Top Performers: RG Brandon Brooks (+5.5) SCB Kareem Jackson (+2.3) WR DeAndre Hopkins (+2.1) ROLB Jadeveon Clowney (+1.8) RCB A.J. Bouye (+1.7) Indianapolis Colts Spoiler – The Colts have been struggling to find a competent starting center since Jeff Saturday retired. An injury to the under-performing Khaled Holmes (-4.0) has given Jonotthan Harrison a shot to stake his claim. Harrison hasn’t played well, though, with a -8.1 grade in 533 snaps. He had particular difficulty against the Texans in pass protection, where he gave up a pair of hits and a hurry from 36 dropbacks. Harrison was beaten with ease by a spin move from blitzing linebacker John Simon on one play. Since he became the starter in Week 8, Harrison has allowed 16 total pressures, which is tied for fifth-worst in the league. It’s unfair to single out one young player for criticism, but Harrison’s performances are symptomatic of the issues the Colts have had at center over the past few years. – The inconsistency of another young player is also hurting the Colts’ defense. It was perhaps optimistic to expect rookie NT David Parry (-11.4) to light it up in his first year in the NFL, but he’s had some poor games this season. He recorded his second worst grade of the season against the Texans, and had a team-low -3.4 run defense grade. Although he made a pair of stops, there were times when the nose tackle was moved with ease on Houston’s trademark outside zone runs. Parry was also shut out as a pass rusher from 13 snaps, although that’s less of a concern considering his main priority is to clog the middle. With this performance, Parry fell to 67th of 70 qualifying defensive tackles, in terms of overall grade. Hopefully this is just an adjustment period for him, and he can bounce-back in the last few weeks of this season. – ILB Jerrell Freeman (+3.7) has been one of the most productive inside linebackers over the past few weeks. In his past six games, he has a +23.4 grade and has not graded negatively in run defense or as a pass rusher. He had an impressive game against the Texans, recording five stops without missing a tackle. Freeman also had a hurry from his only pass rush. Overall, he’s moved up to fourth in our inside linebacker rankings with the joint second-highest grade in run defense (+14.7). In contrast, D’Qwell Jackson (-9.3) is having a poor year. Although he made four stops on Sunday, he also missed a pair of tackles and busted a coverage, resulting in a -2.9 overall grade. Jackson has proved his talent in the past, but at age 32, father time might be catching up with him. Top Performers: – ILB Jerrell Freeman (+3.7) – FS Mike Adams (+3.6) – LOLB Robert Mathis (+2.8) – LCB Jalil Brown (+2.2) – LOLB Jonathan Newsome (+1.9)
That's not what the playoff generators are saying, but I'm not sure how accurate they are once you get into those deep tiebreakers. What I'm seeing is the "magic number" for that SOV tiebreaker would be 2, either NO, Cin, NYJ wins or Den, Mia, Atl losses.
I put in that NO, CIN, and NYJ lose out & DEN, MIA, and ATL win out and the Texans still make the playoffs. In this scenario, the Colts and Texans TIE via Strength of Victory (tiebreaker #5) and the Texans win the next tiebeaker (strength of schedule). So, regardless of what else happens, the Texans cannot lose tiebreakers #5 and #6.
For all practical purposes, 1 Texans win will get the job done. Just got out and win. If we can't beat 1 of either the Titans or Jaguars in meaningful games, then frankly we don't deserve to be in it.
http://espn.go.com/nfl/playoffs/mac...0791607~2~400791528~2~400791515~2~400791563~1 Not what I'm getting here - again I'm assuming the Colts win out and we go 1-1. It also makes a difference whether we beat Jax or Tenn if we only beat one of them...Jax is a stronger win in SOV and Indy lost to them once. Agreed, we don't deserve it if we lose both for sure. Week 17 is always a crapshoot but that Jacksonville team is dangerous and likely won't be fully eliminated. We could very well clinch next week, all it would take is us winning, the Saints winning tonight, and Carolina beating Atlanta which are all very possible, regardless of what Indy does.
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">If you ain't got haters you ain't poppin</p>— Deandre Hopkins (@Nukdabomb) <a href="https://twitter.com/Nukdabomb/status/678988533810388992">December 21, 2015</a></blockquote> <script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Random drug testing. Again.</p>— Matthew Hasselbeck (@Hasselbeck) <a href="https://twitter.com/Hasselbeck/status/678997765607788544">December 21, 2015</a></blockquote> <script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
Colts team testing him for hallucinogenics after that last pass to no one that ended up in the easiest Texans int of the year with the game on the line
