We're going to have a heck of a pen. Harris/Neshek-Sipp-Gregerson-Giles is quite formidable. I think it makes getting another SP less of a need and more of a want.
The Astros were a world series threat last year with a negative at 1B, below average production at 3B and weak at catcher. Having a full year of Gomez + healthy springer, a full year of Kazmir, shoring up the bullpen with a power arm --and moving the BP down a slot-- and potentially adding an impact 1B bat (or even seeing what our farm system has to offer) makes us demonstrably better. Do I think the Astros have another 15+ game winner or top bullpen arm in their system currently (who wasn't part of the starters last season) ? Possibly Do the Astros have a 20 + homer bat, high .avg, high OBP 1B in their system? Possibly. But in a World Series push, 'possibly' may just not cut it. If you are playing the law of averages, then bringing in 'certainty' makes everything that much more viable and less reliant on having someone in the system having a breakout season. The Astros have to view their World Series window in the now. So get us much certainty as possible, and that includes adding Kazmir or like-pitcher into the starting rotation and another proven bat. Add in the year of experience + playoffs for the young team and you should have a demonstrably better team
Wow, I had no idea - that's crazy how much the curve changed post-steroids, even compared to the pre-steroids era in the 80's.
You run with a 6 man rotation at times, you build in days off and limit pitch counts at different times. You try to avoid laboring him. Really it is all going to come down to value. If the Astros can get him at an amount that is in their best interest, they will do it.
I've heard the strike zone was a lot smaller back then. Also, teams are doing less OTJ training these days so guys come to the majors in better shape, ready to contribute
There are players in the minors that throw 95-100 that will be in that pen by the end of the year, that will probably help quite a bit. Feliz, Ferrell, Minaya and Paulino all can throw 95 or higher and could end up in the pen. Martes could be in the pen as well (if not the rotation) at the end of the season. That doesn't include guys like: Gustave, McCurry and Freeman that all could figure in. The Astros have plenty of possible arms in the pen.
While I like Carlos Gomez, he doesn't make this an appreciably better team. In fact, based on how they played last year, he's a lateral move from Jake Marisnick. Agree on both; but both fall under fairly decent-sized "if"s. Second-year regressions are fairly common among young players (we need to see how McCullers responds to the workload) and Reed is a total (but promising) question mark.
While I like the move, let's keep in mind that Giles has never been a full-time closer and he's never closed out meaningful August/September/October games. But even if we give him the benefit of the doubt, the Astros' bullpen was already very good last year. An elite closer is worth... well, Kimbrel posted a 1.3 WAR last year, Chapman 2.7. Gregerson 0.8. And, again, we're assuming Giles reaches uber-elite status. I do think there's an intangible component to having 7-8-9 locked down... but, again, it's not like the Astros had an issue with that for much of the '15 season. Come on... there's a Grand Canyon-sized difference between injury and ineffectiveness. If Fernandez is healthy, he's on the mound every fourth day for 35 starts.
You can either have a solid pitcher for the whole season (including playoffs) with less starts overall... or you can just pitch him regularly till he starts to regress or break down (like he's done the last two years), and then shut him down and hope he's recovered for the playoffs. I'd take the former scenario vs. the latter... but chances are with normal wear/tear and injury risks, Kazmir is going to get some built-in time off regardless of how they approach his innings.
#1 Not having an overpowering arm in the pen cost the Astros last year greatly at the end of the season and the playoffs. Being able to go to Gregerson in the 7th or 8th and Giles makes a big difference. #2 Giles has over 100 innings in the book and has been good. There is no reason he cannot close, and if for some odd reason you move him back to the set up role. #3 Fernandez having injury issues is the point. He is 23 years old and already has missed the lions share of starts the last two seasons and is on an innings limit in 2016. You cannot expect 35 starts from him next year based on track record. Could he be healthy and pitch 180 innings next year (unlikely he goes over 180)? Absolutely, but it isn't a guarantee.
Why not go after a pitcher like Mike Leake? The guy is 3 years younger than Kazmir and has posted ERAs of 3.37, 3.70, and 3.70 the last three years...and his innings dont need to be monitored like the U.S. monitors Iran's nuclear program.
So you think Gomez, who was hurt last year, but posted an .819 OPS in the previous 3 seasons isn't an upgrade over Jake Marisnick who posted a sub .600 OPS after April. Marisnick was a black hole after his hot start. That's not to mention we now have 5 proven MLB starters (no Fausto or Woj), a better bullpen, and hopefully Correa and Springer (our 2 best players) won't combine to miss 110 games like last year. So yes I'm gonna have to disagree. The team we are fielding now looks much better than the team we saw for most of last season.
A lot of regression will happen both ways. McCullers likely won't pitch as efficiently, but will likely pitch more. Gomez is likely to play better than he did for the Astros as he'll likely regress towards his career mean adjusted for age, but he could suck also. Gattis and Valbuena had off years. Rasmus likely had a good year. The Astros did a hell of a lot of choking last year and I think it may mask just how good a team this could be.
I think the Astros will be good. But... Last year, Gomez posted a 2.3 WAR; Marisnick 2.2. Explain to me how a full year of Gomez, who has been in steady decline the past few years and is hurt a lot, makes them better. Agree on Springer; but he's missed significant portions of each of his first two seasons. I don't buy into labels, and such - but I would like to see him get through a season at least once before I just assume it's a given. A full year of Kazmir, based on his two most recent years, equals about 100 innings of a ~3 WAR pitcher + ~70 innings of a 0 WAR pitcher... Also, perhaps of bigger concern - he hasn't, you know, signed a deal with the Astros yet... And, as I said, while I like the acquisition of Giles - the bullpen was not an issue for 85-90% of the season. In fact, it overachieved for a good chunk of it. And while it'd be great to add a competent bat at 1B (or 3B or DH) - again, like Kazmir, they actually haven't done so - and thus, it is does not make us "demonstrably better." The Astros are a good team. But I think a lot of people have this idea - since, let's be honest, a lot of fans ONLY saw the ALDS - that Rasmus is a giant stud and, man! If they just had a great closer... They have concerns, including at least three offensive holes in the line-up; a lack of overall on-base skills; a lot of money tied up in a guy who was probably not a consideration for '16 as recently as mid-September, and they're putting a lot of weight on two *very* young players who have yet to play a full season (CC and LMJr). And, perhaps most importantly, they played in a division/league that *wildly* underperformed. They would have finished 4th in the West with 86 wins in '14, and 2 games out of the Second Wildcard. Any idea they're cement-set to be World Series contenders is, IMO, a little overly optimistic and premature.
The Astros were 4-6 wins below their expected W/L last year. Anything can happen in baseball but it is likely they win 90+ games next season. The concern I have more so is that the Rangers and Angels could also be better. The Rangers will have Hammels and Yu for a full season and the Angels are talking about adding a $150-$200 bat to their line up.
