Where do you get the $5 million number? He got $4.2 million this year coming off a career year (from a WAR perspective). He went from a WAR of 2.0 to a current WAR of -0.2. He'll be in his second year of arbitration this year. I assume that the Astros will probably offer something lower than last year, probably around $2 million. If he asks for $5 million, I'd feel comfortable with the Astros chance at winning the arbitration.
I don't consider $5 mill to be the same bank-breaking sum that you seem to. Yes, if I knew that I could get the exact same production at 4.5 less, I'd prefer that option, but it's still a drop in the bucket, IMO, especially considering our minuscule payroll. While my preference is Carter, I'd be satisfied with any scenario that leaves us with only one of Gattis, Carter, Valbuena, and Tucker in the lineup on any given day.
In fact, I do know how arbitration works. If Carter demands $5 million and is inflexible, Luhnow will simply not tender him a contract if he has any concerns about losing the arbitration. More likely Carter demands $5M and Luhnow offers $2M, then they settle at $3M. Arbitration guys with limited defensive value and negative WAR don't get $5M contracts in this league. I don't think you know how arbitration works.
They'll still look at his overall age, career numbers, and current production on the macro scale. He's going to likely get a raise compared to what he made this year. A $2 million dollar pay cut would be historic in arbitration.
Its not bank-breaking... its just terrible value for a 29 year old who's a bad defensive player and who is prone to go through crippling slumps without any sort of warning when/how it will happen (or when/how it will end). We know they're still going to be nickel-dimey regardless of whether or not the payroll will go up... there's still always a budget. If that $5 million can go towards a top-line free agent hitter/pitcher, or go towards locking up Keuchel to an extension... and they can get similar WAR production from cheaper players... I just don't see how they pay for Carter no matter how many HR's he hits (even being the MMP leader in HR's this year, still with negative overall production).
I can't say for sure until this season is over as one or two of them could get majorly hot, hotter than hot, help us get to the series and change my mind. As of right now, I would rather see Singleton over Carter, Duffy over Valbuena and White over Gattis to start the season. Call up Reed about the same time we did Correa (early June) depending on how it goes.
I agree with you here. Sipp has been very consistent and reliable for us for two years now. A .88 whip last year in 50 IP and a 2.15 ERA this year with a 1.03 whip.
The most his pay could decrease is 20 percent per arbitration guidelines for mlb. A $2mil salary ain't happening nor would $3mil. He's probably getting a minimal raise (no way we came all this way to non tender him).
There is a lot of misinformation here regarding the arbitration process. MrBear is correct though insofar as $2 million dollars being an impossible outcome. The rule, stated differently, is that "No club may submit a salary figure that is less than 80% of the player's previous year's salary (or 70% of his salary two years' previous)." Source, BP. In addition, while DaChamp is insistent as to his understanding of the process, one incredibly basic tenant of the arbitration has been missed. The arbitrator has no discretion to set the final salary figure. He is bound to rule based on two numbers, the figure submitted by the team and/or that submitted by the player. In the end, one of these two numbers is chosen. As an example, Carter may submit at $8 million, while the team submits at $6 million. The midpoint is $7 million, so the arbitrator would theoretically have to ask whether Carter should be paid more or less than that mid-point figure. If he finds the correct price to be higher than the mid-point, he must pick the $8 million. If he finds the correct salary to be lower, he goes with the club's offer.
No, I don't. Sipp has done his job in his 2 years in Houston, but to say they MUST sign him is ridiculous. They can survive a season without Tony Sipp. That being said, I hope he remains on the team, but they won't fall apart (as MUST implies), if he is not in Houston in 2016.
