Given where all the teams are right now, there's a high probability that things will still be up in the air going into the last series of the season. I understand what you're saying "in theory"... but in reality, there's absolutely no way Hinch or any other manager can start lining things up right now, other than he's going to ensure that Keuchel is pitching against the Rangers. And, like i just mentioned... what if they end up tied with the Rangers? Is it more important to win that non-elimination game vs. the wild card game? On the one hand, winning the division title guarantees you at least 3 more games...on the other hand, using your best pitcher for that game puts you at a disadvantage for either game one of the LDS or the winner-take-all wild card game. At this point, I'd feel comfortable with any scenario that does not involve a pitcher on short rest.
Did the rule change? In the past if 2 teams tied for the division and they both would make the playoffs (i.e. one would be the wild card) then head to head determines the division winner which would be the Rangers regardless of this weekend. Ot am I misunderstanding what you wrote?
He actually *is* starting to maneuver - he's pushing Kuechel's next start back a day; he'll be on five days rest Sunday instead of his customary four. I'm guessing that's to give him an extra day in preparation for possibly having to pitch on three days rest if there's a WC game the following week. Or, if necessary, it could be to push him to next Sunday, if necessary, in case the regular season finale is win-and-in. That's the manager's job right now - to be thinking about today, as well as the next 2, 3, 4 steps. It's not easy - but he has to manage with a much wider perspective. His priority is making the postseason. Next: he has to try and align his team so that its best players are on the field when the stakes are highest. No, he doesn't know when that is; but he better have a variety of plans in place as that situation evolves.
Yeah, that's what we were discussing the last page. Since the new WC format, divisions do matter again... and thus there would be a 1 game playoff between the Rangers/Astros if they were tied... and the loser of that would have to play the 1 game wild card game before the LDS. So, would you throw your ace in the division title game? Save him for the wild-card game (if needed)? Or get really ballsy and guarantee you have him for at least 2 LDS games and not use him for "any" 1 game playoff?
Max Stassi leads the team in OPS in the month of September and he's not playing. Our leading corner infielder is Matt Duffy and he's also sitting. Stupid Hinch.
In my opinion, I would play it one game at a time. Assuming everyone is ready to go, no sense not using your best option at pitcher in the first important game. I'd definitely pitch a rested Keuchel in a 1 game division title game, or the 1 game WC playoff. Even Dave Mlicki and Brandon Backe stepped up their games in the playoffs.
If there were 3 games remaining in the season, and the Astros had to win one of them to make the playoffs, is it important that Hinch does everything possible to line up Keuchel to pitch the 3rd game, rather than the 1st or 2nd, since those technically aren't "must-wins"?
Hinch didn't do anything. He left the rotation in the same order that it has been for the past several cycles.
Fun Read: (Snippet) http://www.si.com/mlb/2015/09/22/houston-astros-playoffs-carlos-correa-jd-martinez
I would too. There really is no sense in throwing "any" of the Astros pitchers on short rest... I don't think any single pitcher (Keuchel included) is better on short rest than a fully rested one. There's also the caveat that none of the Astros pitchers (Keuchel included) is a sure thing on the road.
Right. I looked up their road stats earlier and no one stands out. Maybe Straily. (only because he has only pitched on the road - and rather poorly - he is due for an uptick)
He's not "maneuvering" anything... he's keeping the rotation exactly as is, and with the off-day, they all get an extra day of rest. Its when you start strategically skipping guys, or moving guys up on short rest, that I'd consider that "maneuvering".
Not sure why we aren't starting Duffy. His MiLB numbers indicate he's the type of guy we need in our lineup. Less boom or bust type player who can get on base. Plug him in!
Impossible to answer without knowing more variables; specifically, when did he last pitch? And does this win clinch the division or a WC? Both are necessary to plot an appropriate response. But I'll try to walk through the various scenarios, anyway. If it's for the division... If his regularly-scheduled start falls on game 1, I start him. Otherwise, he could be knocked off his routine with a 7+-day rest. If his regularly-scheduled start falls on game 2, well - that would depend on when game 1 of the ALDS was. If it was 4 or five days later, I'd be OK with him starting because I'd still have him for game 1 of the ALDS. If his regularly-scheduled start falls on game 3, and we're on a two-game losing streak, you start him, no ifs ands or buts. If it's for the wild card... A lot will depend on when the WC game is scheduled. If we assume game 1 of the 3-game series starts on a Friday, and the WC game is Tuesday... I probably start him with the idea of bringing him back for the WC game on three days rest. If his regularly-scheduled start falls on game 2, I don't start him under any circumstance. If his regularly-scheduled start falls on game 3, and we're on a two-game losing streak, you start him, no ifs ands or buts. And then you figure out who your best bet is for the WC game. ETA: a lot of this is dependent on how Keuchel feels. Is he OK throwing on what could be... 7, 8, 9 days of rest? Can he go on three days? Hinch will (or, better) have a good feel for that. I do not.
Yeah, Keuchel's been on 4 days rest his last three starts; five days in his three previous to that. Heck, he's been on as much as 6. I mean, a lot of this is having your finger on the pulse, which we don't. But... he did break a 3-start run of 4 days rest to throw him Sunday, which does, looking ahead, better position Keuchel for that final series.
But isn't that "break" just because of the off-day Thursday? I guess if he wanted, he could pitch McHugh, Keuchel, McCullers against the Rangers all on regular rest (and skip Kazmir entirely), but there wouldn't be much evidence to push for that scenario. As it is, Kazmir, McHugh,Keuchel is the exact order they pitched in Arlington. I think you're over-thinking this. It does set-up fine for the final series.
I meant the first game was his scheduled start. But whatever, forget I even proposed that scenario. It's leading too far away from my attempted point. I just think the stance of "If hinch doesn't figure out a way for Keuchel to pitch in all the games that I'd ideally like him to pitch in, he has failed and he should be fired", is ridiculous given the complete uncertainty of what will be at stake in the final few games. But now I'm just going in circles, since I'm repeating what I did in my original response at the beginning of this thread. Here are the facts: it's impossible for Keuchel to pitch 2 more games this season plus the WC game all on full rest. I'm not sure where the Hinch criticism regarding this could possibly even lie, but I'm already shuddering to hear the outcry of idiots in the city reaming him if Kazmir pitches and loses the WC game. You are entitled to your opinion that Keuchel on 3 days rest is a better option than Kazmir on full rest, but that doesn't mean that Hinch should be fired if he doesn't agree with you. And it doesn't mean that you're right if he does agree with you. Personally, I'd pitch Kazmir on full rest, and it's not all that hard of a decision.
I was looking exclusively at keeping Keuchel on what's been four days rest his last four starts. I honestly didn't dig deep enough - maybe fewer off days? I don't know. Again, a lot of this is what Keuchel can handle, etc. But, I'll maintain: if Hinch isn't keeping an eye on the end-game here, it's a fire-able offense, IMO. He should have a variety of go-ready plans as this evolves each day.
what end-game??? you have just been shown there's potential for numerous "must-win" games. either he wants to pitch keuchel on short rest in one of them, or he doesn't. there's really no other planning and maneuvering that he needs to do/has the ability to do
