Carlos Hernandez update

[Nick]

He threw 7 innings today, zero hits, zero runs, 10 K's, against a very good Colorado Springs team.

He was probably not allowed to go for the entire no-no, because of a pitch count... but its good to see him progressing well enough to get those K numbers up.

I don't know how hard he was throwing (indications in previous starts said he was starting to get more velocity), but he obviously is just much more confident in his stuff, as his K numbers have been goin higher and higher the last couple of months.

We'll see how this week goes with Munro and Duckworth, and I say its only a matter of time now that we'll get to see Carlos in there.... whether we're in contention, or not.

[arkoe]

That's amazing. Hopefully he'll be able to get his velocity up soon. He won't break back out of the minors if he doesn't.

[MadMax]

great news.

[leroy420]

Hopefully, today is Duckworth's last chance. It's tough going into a game that you know you're going to have to use your entire bullpen. I think it is time to give Carlos a chance. Even if his velocity isn't where it used to be, that only means that he has learned how to pitch rather than throw.

[gunn]

It would not suprise me to see Buchholz being called up in the near future as well.

[arkoe]

Originally posted by leroy420
that only means that he has learned how to pitch rather than throw.

There's a difference in pitching to minor league players and major league players. A low 80's fastball isn't going to do it in the majors.

[Nick]

Originally posted by arkoe
There's a difference in pitching to minor league players and major league players. A low 80's fastball isn't going to do it in the majors.

True... but its already been stated that his fastball is now up to 88mph in his starts (according to the last times-picayune article).

I read the article for yesterday's game, and all it said was that he was great at, "Changing speeds..."

Considering that his curveball was always around 75-78mph, I would assume his fastball would be a bit more than that.

Agreed, though... he won't be called up till his arm strength is where it needs to be... but he IS making progress.

[MadMax]

Originally posted by arkoe
There's a difference in pitching to minor league players and major league players. A low 80's fastball isn't going to do it in the majors.

agreed..but this is a big step from where he was. it's progress, at the very least. gives us something to hope for.

[baytownson]

In three starts in July, Hernandez is 2-0 with an era of .45. He's allowed only 7 hits and 3 walks in 20 innings while striking out 18.

Another guy I think could get a late call up is Chad Qualls. Since being moved to the pen, he's made 11 apps and has given up runs in only one of those. I think this guy definitely has a future in the Astros' bullpen.

[DaDakota]

I thought I read somewhere that he had hit the low 90s on his fastball.

Either way, it is good news.

Can he hit??????

DD

[leroy420]

Originally posted by arkoe
There's a difference in pitching to minor league players and major league players. A low 80's fastball isn't going to do it in the majors.

Jaime Moyer won 20 games last year with a low 80's fastball. Not that Carlos is Jaime Moyer, but it is still a good sign that if he is throwing in the low 80's, he is still getting guys out.

Yes there is a difference between AAA hitters and major league hitters. That doesn't make pitching 7 no-hit innings any easier.

[baytownson]

.158 with an OPS of .369

should fit right in....

[Fegwu]

If we completely fall out of the races I don't see any reason why he should be rushed to the major league.

If we are not in contention after this week, I say we wait until September for a possible call up.

[Groogrux]

Originally posted by Fegwu
If we completely fall out of the races I don't see any reason why he should be rushed to the major league.

If we are not in contention after this week, I say we wait until September for a possible call up.

Define contention.

[DaDakota]

Originally posted by baytownson
.158 with an OPS of .369

should fit right in....

Good, he can play 1st base then.

:)

DD

[baytownson]

Another guy I think could get a late call up is Chad Qualls. Since being moved to the pen, he's made 11 apps and has given up runs in only one of those. I think this guy definitely has a future in the Astros' bullpen.


Well so much for the late call up......he got recalled today.

[rudager]

Man oh man, maybe he can carry the 'Stros back to .500!

[Nick]

Another 7 inning, no run performance from Carlos tonight, against a very good hitting Memphis Redbird team.

If Tim or Pete struggle these next two days, or we fall further out of contention, you might as well let him get his feet wet, and see how far he has to go to get ready for major league pitching, in the even that he'd be called on to start next year.

[Nick]

Here's the recap of last night's stellar performance by Carlos:
http://www.nola.com/zephyrs/t-p/index.ssf?/base/sports-0/1090680968283800.xml

Some highlights to point out... his fastball is now reaching 89mph, which should be good enough for the big leagues... but he feels he can get it even faster in the future. For now, he feels that he's ready to compete.

Hernandez pitches Z's to victory
By Peter Barrouquere
Staff writer
Saturday, July 24, 2004

Carlos Hernandez took another step toward getting back to the Houston Astros on Friday night.

Hernandez, who pitched seven hitless innings Sunday in his last outing, allowed three hits in seven innings as the Zephyrs beat the Memphis Redbirds 2-0 at Zephyr Field.

Hernandez (7-3) had his consecutive hitless innings streak end at 10 1Ú3 over three games when Mike Mahoney lined a single to right with one out in the third. The streak started in the last inning of a game that was postponed after three innings July 11 at Iowa. Mahoney had an infield hit in the fifth, and Jason Bowers doubled in the sixth.

Russ Springer allowed two hits and struck out four in two scoreless innings.

"He's throwing the ball well," Zephyrs catcher Zach Norris said. "He's locating his fastball. That's what we preach. He's getting his breaking stuff over. His velocity has come back, and he knows how to pitch.

"He's been in the big leagues, and he's not too far from going back there, I can tell you that. The last three or four times, he's been outstanding."

Hernandez, who missed last season while recovering from three surgical procedures in 2002 to his left shoulder, has allowed two runs in 30 innings in his past five starts.

He threw 90 pitches Friday and his fastball topped at 89 mph, Zephyrs pitching coach Charlie Taylor said.

"I've felt pretty good the last three or four starts," Hernandez said. "The way my shoulder feels right now, and with what I have right now, I think it's good enough to get me back to the big leagues.

"The main thing is, my velocity hasn't come all the way back, but I think with what I have right now, I can get the job done. (Norris) called a great game, and the guys helped me out defensively and picked me up and got the win for me."

Zephyrs hitting coach Sean Berry, who is managing the team while Chris Maloney serves a suspension for an incident in a game this week on the road, said there wasn't much difference in the way Hernandez has pitched in the two games he has seen him.

"He pitched just as well as he did the other night," Berry said.

The Z's, who threatened frequently against Memphis starter Luis Martinez (0-4), scored four runs in the seventh.

Mike Hill batted for Hernandez with one out and got an infield single. Chris Burke bunted, but Martinez couldn't make a play, and the Zephyrs had runners on first and second.

Chad Paronto replaced Martinez and walked Royce Huffman to load the bases. Paronto walked Mike Coolbaugh and Phil Hiatt to force in two runs and give the Z's a 2-0 lead.

Eric Bruntlett singled to left to bring in Huffman and Coolbaugh.

[bigboymumu]

I am sorry but topping out at 89 will not do it. Don't rush him back! He will over throw and get hurt again. This is the one time I agree with the brass!

[Nick]

Originally posted by bigboymumu
I am sorry but topping out at 89 will not do it. Don't rush him back! He will over throw and get hurt again. This is the one time I agree with the brass!

Note... he never got hurt by throwing (or overthrowing)... he got hurt siding head-first into second base. I can understand not wanting to "rush" him, but I also understand that he's not going to accomplish much more at AAA now... and its important for him to start gaining confidence ASAP at the big league level again, so that the transition next year is that much smoother.

Also, I tend to disagree with 89 not cutting it. 84-86 mph (which was Jeriome Robertson range) is definitely not going to do anything, but pitching at 89-90, as long as he's able to change speeds, and locate well, will be VERY effective.

Also, his + curveball and change-up will make that pitch seem a LOT faster (see Daryle Kile). Also, and I can't stress this enough, an average lefty pitcher is just as valuable as an above-average righty pitcher.

In the end, its all about the ability to control and locate... and he's been doing that with excellence the last month.

If you want the perfect opposite of that, see Tim Redding... who throws 94-95, but doesn't locate nor change speeds well at all, and thus gets shelled... even though his "stuff" is much better than most no.5 pitchers out there.

I guarantee you, with the way Redding has thrown this year, he wouldn't be matching Carlos' numbers at AAA.

[bigboymumu]

Nick,
I believe Hernandez can be a very good player in this league. All I am saying is... I don't want him to start throwing harder than he should be throwing. He has experience in the majors, I just would hate to see him get hurt again. If he does come up, I would keep a careful eye on him. Make sure he is not trying to throw too hard!

[Nick]

Originally posted by bigboymumu
Nick,
I believe Hernandez can be a very good player in this league. All I am saying is... I don't want him to start throwing harder than he should be throwing. He has experience in the majors, I just would hate to see him get hurt again. If he does come up, I would keep a careful eye on him. Make sure he is not trying to throw too hard!

Indeed... i'm sure they'd have him on a strict pitch count, and they'd be monitoring his mechanics like crazy. Of course, keeping him healthy is the #1 priority. (of course, if we were the Cubs, he would have been pitching for us even with his bum shoulder... they ruin arms like no other.)

I just feel that the confidence that could be gained from some good starts to close out this year could prove invaluable to his performance for next year.

And, if he gets pounded at the MLB level, it lets him know that as good as he was in AAA, he's gotta work harder in the offseason and winter-ball in getting that arm strength back, so he can get these MLB hitters out.

Either way... as long as he doesn't get injured... he'll benefit.

[bigboymumu]

Originally posted by Nick
Indeed... i'm sure they'd have him on a strict pitch count, and they'd be monitoring his mechanics like crazy. Of course, keeping him healthy is the #1 priority. (of course, if we were the Cubs, he would have been pitching for us even with his bum shoulder... they ruin arms like no other.)

I just feel that the confidence that could be gained from some good starts to close out this year could prove invaluable to his performance for next year.

And, if he gets pounded at the MLB level, it lets him know that as good as he was in AAA, he's gotta work harder in the offseason and winter-ball in getting that arm strength back, so he can get these MLB hitters out.

Either way... as long as he doesn't get injured... he'll benefit.

I agree!

[Raven Lunatic]

Is the Zephyrs hitting coach the same Sean Berry that played 3rd base for the Astros during the mid 90s?

[leroy420]

Originally posted by Raven Lunatic
Is the Zephyrs hitting coach the same Sean Berry that played 3rd base for the Astros during the mid 90s?

Yes, he is. He was here in Round Rock until Gaetti got called up to the majors.


I say that the big club should make 2 more moves. Bring up Springer and send Bullinger back down. Also, call Carlos up and put either Munro or Redding back in the pen (whomever does worse in their next start) and waive David Weathers. He is terrible and old, not a good combination.

[Fegwu]

Originally posted by Rocketman95
Define contention.


3 games within wild card leader board.

[codell]

I wanted to bring up Doug Davis in this thread, because he is a perfect example of how Carlos Hernandez can succeed with an 89 MPH fastball.

:)

[Nick]

Originally posted by codell
I wanted to bring up Doug Davis in this thread, because he is a perfect example of how Carlos Hernandez can succeed with an 89 MPH fastball.

:)

At first I thought you were supporting the point... then I looked at the time of your post, and noticed the Astros put up a 4-spot, thus making it sarcasm... nice. :D

But, all kidding aside, it doesn't matter if its 89mph or 94mph... if you throw the ball in the location that Davis was (right down the middle to Lamb, and not high enough to Ensberg), you're going to get pounded no matter what.

Carlos can survive... he just has to locate well, and he can't make any mistakes. Also, Pupura said in today's chron that "the velocity is where we want it to be," indicating that if Munro or Redding falters, he'll probably be given his shot.

[codell]

Nick,

Actuallly, i wasn't being sarcastic.

Doug Davis has an ERA under 4 this year.

[Raven Lunatic]

Originally posted by leroy420
Yes, he is. He was here in Round Rock until Gaetti got called up to the majors.



Sweet! I loved Sean Berry back in the day. He rules.

[Nick]

Originally posted by codell
Nick,

Actuallly, i wasn't being sarcastic.

Doug Davis has an ERA under 4 this year.

Ah... well I guess it was just one damn big coincidence that the time of your post perfectly aligned with the exact time the astros rocked Davis for 4 runs (in fact, they showed the clock at MMP, because they had that running contest with Garner and the 4 run inning).

But yeah... Davis has been good all year primarily because of his ability to change speeds and locate well... two thing Carlos will HAVE to do.

Also, Carlos has a much better changeup and curveball than Davis, giving all the more reason why he can be effective.

Hell... Pettite's fastball only hovers around 90-91 right now (at its peak)... but then again, he's got the vicious cutter that neutralizes any batter.

[Raven Lunatic]

Shane Reynolds was a solid starter for years and he never got much faster than 90.

Is he still pitching?

[codell]

Originally posted by Raven Lunatic
Shane Reynolds was a solid starter for years and he never got much faster than 90.

Is he still pitching?

Shane, at his best, was pitching in the 92-93 range. He became mediocre when he started hitting around 90.

I think he made a start or two for Arizona this year and got whacked around pretty good.

[gunn]

I'm having a hard time realizing as to why Taveras has not been called up to New Orleans. He's tied for second in hits on the team, with 97, despite playing in 21 fewer games. He also currently boasts incredible numbers with a batting average of .344, an OBP of .406, and a SLG% of .397. To top that off he as stolen 41 bags with a stolen base % of 75.6. My guess as to why he hasn't been called up is to work on drawing walks or possibly to keep Round Rock competitive. His numbers should warrant a call-up. Some good games to keep and eye on Willy are on Tuesday, July 27 and August 7. In these two games Round Rock is scheduled against San Antonio (Mariners Texas League team) who in both games are slated to pitch 18 year old, phenom Felix Hernandez. In the only game they've faced each other Taveras has got the better of Hernandez in an individual matchup going 1-1 with a single, SB and a run scored, with a walk and a SAC bunt.

Hernandez eventually got the win which was his first in AA since being called up.

Here's the write up on Felix if you are interested:

Felix Hernandez, rhp
Age: 18 Ht.: 6-3 Wt.: 170 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: Venezuela, 2002
Signed by: Pedro Avila


Background: The Mariners expected Hernandez to be good when they signed him for $710,000, but not this good, this fast. Seattle is not inclined to challenge teenagers with an assignment to the short-season Northwest League, populated mostly by former college players, but when Hernandez threw in the mid-90s last spring, he punched his ticket to Everett. The youngest player in the NWL by nearly eight months, he was dominant despite being kept on tight pitch counts. He pitched scoreless ball in five of his 11 outings. He was an easy choice as the NWL’s No. 1 prospect. Promoted for the low Class A Midwest League stretch drive, he responded with two quality starts in as many tries. In the season finale, he shut out Kane County with 10 strikeouts in seven innings. Hernandez succeeded against even more experienced hitters this winter, going 1-1, 4.23 in six starts for Lara in his native Venezuela. The Mariners shut him down in December so he wouldn’t exceed 100 innings in 2003.

Strengths: Hernandez has scary upside. He’ll open this season as a 17-year-old and he doesn’t need to develop any more stuff. The only guy in the organization with a comparable arm is big leaguer Rafael Soriano. Hernandez has the best fastball in the system and commands his mid-90s heat well. He regularly touches 97 and could reach triple digits as his skinny frame fills out. Hernandez’ curveball is also unparalleled among Mariners farmhands and gives him the possibility for two 70 pitches on the 20-80 scouting scale. Though he’s young and can easily overpower hitters at the lower levels, he understands the value of a changeup and is developing a good one. He can pitch down in the strike zone or blow the ball by hitters upstairs. He has poise and mound presence beyond his years.

Weaknesses: Hernandez just has to learn how to pitch. He needs to tweak his command and refine his pitches. Typical of a teenager with a lightning arm, he’ll overthrow at times but should grow out of that. Arm problems would appear to be the only thing that could derail him from stardom, and Hernandez has been perfectly healthy so far. The Mariners will go to great lengths to make sure he isn’t overworked in the minors.

The Future: Seattle wants to move Hernandez slowly, but he may not let that happen. He’s not going to need to spend a full season at each level and might need just two more years in the minors. He’ll probably start 2004 back at low Class A Wisconsin—the Mariners concede he could have spent all of last season there—and could be bucking for a promotion to high Class A Inland Empire by midseason. It’s easy to get overexcited about young pitchers, but Hernandez has the legitimate potential to become the best pitcher ever developed by the Mariners.

EDIT: In 32 career games, Hernandez is now 17-5, 2.51 with 223 strikeouts in 179 innings while easily holding his own at Double-A. His K/9ip is 11.26 which is flat out amazing considering he just recently turned 18.