Time-tested formulas suggest both Bush and Kerry will win

[Faos]

This is a good article, but much too long to post here. I pasted some of it but you're better off going to the link.

Time-tested formulas suggest both Bush and Kerry will win on Nov. 2

http://www.usatoday.com/news/politicselections/nation/president/2004-06-23-bush-kerry-cover_x.htm

A look at the conflicting clues:

1. Is it the economy? The smart answer is yes — Advantage: Bush

2. Low approval usually means removal — Advantage: Kerry

3. In times of war, commander in chief gets sharp salute — Advantage: Bush

4. As goes Ohio, so does GOP ... and it's not going well — Advantage: Kerry

5. Democrats all too familiar with Southern discomfort — Advantage: Bush

6. But really, just how do the two candidates measure up? — Advantage: Kerry

[Oski2005]

I think we'll get another Dem winning the popular vote with Bush taking the electoral college. Hopefully not though.

[RocketMan Tex]

I think it will be just as close as 2000, and unfortunately, much uglier.

[Chance]

For the umpteenth time...Bush in a landslide.

[FranchiseBlade]

In a surprise move a Monarchy will be established in the U.S. after this election.

[Mulder]

Originally posted by Chance
For the umpteenth time...Bush in a landslide.

You forgot your smilie...

[basso]

new poll show's kerry w/ a one point lead in PA, a state gor won w/ a 4.2 point margin:

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=694&ncid=703&e=5&u=/ap/20040624/ap_on_el_pr/pennsylvania_poll

it'd be weird if W lost Ohio, but made it up in PA. also, several quinnipac polls have suggested NJ is closer than many people think, although i have trouble believing it's truely in play.

[Mulder]

In keeping with the method I have used in previous threads, there is a website that is tracking State polls to determine very likely, likely, not likely, etc. and try and try and predict the election.

http://www.tripias.com/images/statebystate.gif

Key

RED "Likely Bush" PINK "Uncertain Bush"

BLUE "Likely Kerry" Light Blue "Uncertain Kerry"

Results

BUSH Likely
221
Uncertain
38

Total
259 BUSH

Kerry Likely
203
Uncertain 76

Total
279 Kerry

270 Needed to win.

For the full breakdown, go here. (http://www.tripias.com/state/)

[B-Bob]

Originally posted by Chance
For the umpteenth time...Bush in a landslide.
Oh wait, Chance. We weren't discussing what Bush has to the twin mountains of America's international credibility and federal budget. This is about the upcoming election. ;)

[MadMax]

Interesting analysis from a guy named Ken Fisher. Fisher is a Wall Street analyst type...

he ultimately says:

1. it doesn't matter who gets elected..the economy is poised for growth...so whoever does get elected will be helped by that.

2. he says bush will win...he says in key states like Ohio that the "GET OUT THE VOTE" machine is controlled by the Republican party, and that they'll use that to their advantage. he actually think like chance does...that it really won't be close.

3. he goes on to say...if you're democrat, get over it...and if you're republican, get over it too...because it's not an endorsement of the candidate or his idea but of simple inside machinations. he says if you're looking for a good president you won't find it in either one of these candidates.

the guy has a website at www.fi.com

he's pretty well respected...and as my business partner says, is right more times than wrong. doesn't mean he won't be wrong here...but just throwing this out, anyway.

[B-Bob]

I might agree, Max, with this guy in that neither guy may be a great president for us, but their policies will be different enough to me that I do feel like the election matters.

I care about four main things:
* decreasing instead of increasing terrorism. (if you saw a spike in 2003, wait 'til you see the 2004 statistics, already quite alarming).
* education of Americans.
* fiscal responsibility. (unprecendented deficit spending)
* domestic government transparency and honesty. (unprecedented secrecy and roll-backs of rights)

Those four things lead me to vote against the sitting president and for Kerry. Just my take.

And by the way, I also believe Bush has better odds in this election, but I'm not going to give up until the election is over.

[MadMax]

Originally posted by B-Bob
I might agree, Max, with this guy in that neither guy may be a great president for us, but their policies will be different enough to me that I do feel like the election matters.

I care about four main things:
* decreasing instead of increasing terrorism. (if you saw a spike in 2003, wait 'til you see the 2004 statistics, already quite alarming).
* education of Americans.
* fiscal responsibility. (unprecendented deficit spending)
* domestic government transparency and honesty. (unprecedented secrecy and roll-backs of rights)

Those four things lead me to vote against the sitting president and for Kerry. Just my take.

And by the way, I also believe Bush has better odds in this election, but I'm not going to give up until the election is over.

I understand. Of course, Fisher would say your opinion is irrelevant because you're not in a battleground state! :)

[B-Bob]

Originally posted by MadMax
Of course, Fisher would say your opinion is irrelevant ...
I think it's obvious by now that I don't care what SamFisher says! :mad:

[SamFisher]

Originally posted by B-Bob
I think it's obvious by now that I don't care what SamFisher says! :mad:

You know, that's the kind of shoooting your mouth off that got you deposed from Planet E in the first place ... that and staging a military coup to take over the government. Just because you were on Cheney's secret Energy commission and you were able to get the Supreme Court to buy you some time and rule in your favor today by finding for Chaney, which you did when you had Ruth Bader Ginsberg kidnapped and replaced with Karas wearing a Hefty bag and some Ray-bans, doesn't mean that I'm not on to you.


looks like somebody sold out to big tobacco too; surprise. :rolleyes:
http://www.forces.org/evidence/files/gori2.htm

[B-Bob]

Ha ha ha! My favorite site other than Koko the Gorilla's homepage!

"The work of Dr. Gori is very interesting because -- no matter what the source of funding -- it debunks the common and much publicized assumptions about tobacco..."
stupid humans.

Koko's (different enough spelling from Karas? Ha ha!) homepage (http://www.koko.org/)
stupid humans.

http://www.ontology.com/canton/weird/koko/koko-smokes.jpg
Look where your 22-yr-old friend is now. Ha ha ha! While you watch reruns of yourself.