Astros minor league preview

[Buck Turgidson]

http://www.astrosconnection.com/html/minors.cfm?id=267

Round Rock looks unbelievably tough this year; they've got 8-10 players who should play in the bigs. Watching Burke & Whiteman play together should be a treat, looks like Burke will split time b/t 2nd & SS, and Whiteman b/t SS & 3rd. I highly recommend to anyone in the Austin/Houston areas catching a few games up there.

[bobrek]

Buck

Do you go to the Express games? How hard is it to get tickets the day of a game? I'll be down for my daughter's wedding in June and would like to take in a game if I have the time.

[haven]

Keep us updated on Burke. I'm less than sold on Everett or Lugo, so I hope he's ready sooner rather than later... any chance he'd be ready for a call-up mid-season?

[Buck Turgidson]

Originally posted by bobrek
Buck

Do you go to the Express games? How hard is it to get tickets the day of a game? I'll be down for my daughter's wedding in June and would like to take in a game if I have the time.

It depends. Weekend games are, of course, a much hotter ticket than weekdays, or so I've been told. I've never tried to walk-up & buy tix, I'm in Houston so when I'm planning a trip I have someone in Austin pick 'em up in advance. There aren't any bad seats in the place, I'd call a week or so in advance & see what the availability is like & then plan accordingly.

[Raven Lunatic]

I went to a game one time where me family and I walked up and bought tickets after it had already started. We got lawn tickets, but I am pretty sure there were other seats available. It is crowded there, but I don't think they sell out every game or anything.

[Timing]

It looks like Gerry Hunsicker made the right move by giving up Garrett Gentry instead of John Buck last year in that Astacio trade. I know some people rated them about the same and there was a question if we gave up the right guy. Gentry is out for the year with a torn labrum. The Rockies must be pissed.

[Buck Turgidson]

Originally posted by haven
Keep us updated on Burke. I'm less than sold on Everett or Lugo, so I hope he's ready sooner rather than later... any chance he'd be ready for a call-up mid-season?

Man, AE has looked good so far. It's VERY early, but he looks much more comfortable at the plate than I expected. From everything I've heard, Burke is being groomed as Biggio's successor at 2B; he definitely won't be called up this year - he only played a handful of games in A-ball last year. AA is the real test for minor leaguers, I'm very interested in seeing what he & Whiteman can do. Also, Lane starting in CF for N.O. should be very interesting. From the handful of games I saw in RR last year, I wasn't overly impressed w/ his defense.

I was thinking about what the 'Stros could look like in 5 years or so, & it's pretty amazing; all these guys have All-Star potential & other that Bags none will be older than 31 (of course, not all of them will pan out):

1B - Bagwell/Ward
2B - Burke
SS - Everett/Whiteman
3B - Ensberg/Whiteman/Ramon German
OF - Berkman/Hidalgo/Lane/Mike Rodriguez/Charlton Jimmerson
C - Buck; also we've got a 18-19 year old Venezuelan (Hector Gimenez I think) who'll be playing in the States for the first time this year (A-ball); I've read, w/ just a little hyperbole, that he reminds many of Pudge.

SP - Oswalt
SP - Miller
SP - Hernandez
SP - Redding
SP - Chad Qualls/Tony Pluta/Mike Nannini/Rodrigo Rosario/Greg Miller

RP - Dotel/Puffer/Lidge/Saarloos/Jamison/Shearn/W. Rodriguez/Rob Steihl/Linebrink/Stone

[Buck Turgidson]

Originally posted by Timing
It looks like Gerry Hunsicker made the right move by giving up Garrett Gentry instead of John Buck last year in that Astacio trade. I know some people rated them about the same and there was a question if we gave up the right guy. Gentry is out for the year with a torn labrum. The Rockies must be pissed.

Gentry is like Meluskey, big bat/bad defense/bad shoulder(s). Buck is almost ML-ready as far as catching is concerned, it's his bat (rapidly improving) that he needs to work on.

[Raven Lunatic]

Now that the Astros are attempting to convert Lidge into a closer (to reduce these pesky injuries he has been getting) the contract given to Wagner is that much more annoying. In a year (assuming good health for Lidge) he will probably be ready to step in and take on a big portion of the bullpen work (maybe even close, if it was asked of him). As of right now, no one in the Astros organization doubts whether or not this guy has the stuff to dominate (or at least do very well) in the big leagues, but he hasn't been able to stay healthy. Although, having Dotel, Wagner and Lidge as a three headed relief monster would be pretty nice.

But I get the feeling that, if Lidge turns out to be as good as advertised, he will be Drayton's excuse for letting Dotel walk, after signing Wagner to that horrific contract. Now, to me that isn't so bad, because if Dotel is asking for closer money, then the Astros certainly can't afford it after having paid Wagner. But I REALLY would have rather them let Wagner walk last season and kept Dotel than vice versa. Dotel just seems more versatile.

[Buck Turgidson]

His contract only runs through '04, w/ club option for '05. I think we overpaid him, but it's not a huge mistake (look at what the Cards gave Isringhausen!). If Wagner produces along the lines of last year's performance, there will definitely be a market for his services, if it comes to that. I don't know if he has a no-trade clause (I know he's not a 10-5 guy yet, 2005 will be his 10th season). When is Dotel a free agent? This is only his 4th ML season, so I think he's not FA eligible until after the '04 season.

Lidge need to stay injury-free for at least a year; it's hard to plan for the future w/ a guy who's only pitched 20-something minor league games in 3 years. He is a witch on the mound, though.

P.S. Redding started for New Orleans last night & dominated:

5 innings, 1 hit, no runs, 1 BB, 6 Ks

[PhiSlammaJamma]

I ordered some baseball cards from Round Rock and got them next day. Good service. I didn't know Nolan Ryan owned the team until I got the cards. I got a Roy Oswalt and Ensberg. Woo hoo. Only 5$.

[Timing]

Originally posted by PhiSlammaJamma
I ordered some baseball cards from Round Rock and got them next day. Good service. I didn't know Nolan Ryan owned the team until I got the cards. I got a Roy Oswalt and Ensberg. Woo hoo. Only 5$.


Hey, how'd you rig that? Lemme know!

[haven]

Man, AE has looked good so far. It's VERY early, but he looks much more comfortable at the plate than I expected. From everything I've heard, Burke is being groomed as Biggio's successor at 2B; he definitely won't be called up this year - he only played a handful of games in A-ball last year. AA is the real test for minor leaguers, I'm very interested in seeing what he & Whiteman can do. Also, Lane starting in CF for N.O. should be very interesting. From the handful of games I saw in RR last year, I wasn't overly impressed w/ his defense.

Yeah, he's been better than expected with the bat. And I'm really not complaining about him, so much as thinking about the evolution of the SS position. Right now, it looks like AE might become the prototypical SS... before the advent of guys like A-Rod, Garciaparra, Jeter, etc. When there were only the Big 3, it wasn't such a big deal. But now we're seeing guys like Aurilia develop power, and others like Tejada emerge.

How long before a SS w/o power and/or an obscene OBP is a liability? I don't think that'll be in the next 5 years, but perhaps that day is coming, now that one can be both strong and flexible.

I just see AE as a type of dying breed of SS, and I'd rather have one of the new breed...

I don't think that the common SS will ever be like A-rod. But perhaps of the .275/.350/.450 type...

[Buck Turgidson]

Originally posted by haven

How long before a SS w/o power and/or an obscene OBP is a liability? I don't think that'll be in the next 5 years, but perhaps that day is coming, now that one can be both strong and flexible.

It really depends on the makup of the team in question. The Astros, who should get above average to excellent production from 6 of the 8 positions (1B, 2B, 3B, LF, CF, RF) can benefit greatly by playing defensive specialists at the other 2 positions. Teams like the Giants, Red Sox & Yankees (to a certain extent) need the extra offense from their SS because their linups have so many holes.

And then there's the Rangers, who could field 8 A-Rods & start another at DH & still lose 90 games 'cause their pitching is absolutely horrible.


I just see AE as a type of dying breed of SS, and I'd rather have one of the new breed...

Depends on who you're talking about. Aurilia & Tejada are good offensive players, but they may be better off at 2nd or 3rd base because their defense (range in particular) is so questionable. I'd take AE over either of them right now.

[Timing]

You would take Everett over Miguel Tejada? OMG!!

[Buck Turgidson]

Originally posted by Timing
You would take Everett over Miguel Tejada? OMG!!

Yep, I would. In my opinion, Tejada's one of the most over-rated players in MLB today. There's more to playing SS than hitting HR's, and I was stating what I would do if I were the Astros management. They need superior defense at SS much more than a one-dimensional power hitter.

Tejada's career #s are:
.257 BA .324 OBP .443 SLG .767 OPS
Also, he has a 2:1 K:BB ratio, averaging 104 K's & 52 BB's per 162 games for his career.

Not really impressive, and when you consider what he doesn't give you w/ the glove, I don't think my opinion is quite ridiculous enough to merit 2 exclaimation points ;) .

[haven]

It really depends on the makup of the team in question. The Astros, who should
get above average to excellent production from 6 of the 8 positions (1B, 2B, 3B,
LF, CF, RF) can benefit greatly by playing defensive specialists at the other 2
positions. Teams like the Giants, Red Sox & Yankees (to a certain extent) need
the extra offense from their SS because their linups have so many holes.

And then there's the Rangers, who could field 8 A-Rods & start another at DH &
still lose 90 games 'cause their pitching is absolutely horrible.

Umm... I think you've got a sort of football mentality on the issue. In baseball, it doesn't matter if you win 3-2 or 6-4. In fact, I'd rather win 6-4, since the randomness in the situation is decreased. That's one reason I'll take offense over defense any day.

It doesn't matter if you have 6 great hitters. It doesn't change the advantages/disadvantages of defense/hitting for the other two positions. The relative merits are unchanged.

I just don't view fielding as very important in baseball. Baseball is 50% offense, 50% defense. Defense, however, is split between pitching and fielding. A position player does not directly contribute to pitching, which is rather more important. Hence, I think one can safely assume that fielding is relatively far less important than offense.

I will agree that the SS position is the single most crucial one defensively. But how many runs do you really think a great defensive short stop saves over a mediocre one? I'd wager not all that many.

Rich Aurilia, who you'd reject for Everett, had the 7th highest VORP (value above replacement player) in the league, at 91.3 last year according to baseballprospectus.com .

91.3 runs better than the average player. That's a lot for defense to make up. For Everett, a below average hitter even for a SS, to match this... he's have to save almost 2/3 of a run per game with his defense. Hell, I don't think he saves 2/3 of a hit over Aurilia per game. Just aren't that many spectacular plays that can be made in a single ball game.

[Buck Turgidson]

Originally posted by haven


I just don't view fielding as very important in baseball. Baseball is 50% offense, 50% defense. Defense, however, is split between pitching and fielding. A position player does not directly contribute to pitching, which is rather more important. Hence, I think one can safely assume that fielding is relatively far less important than offense.

Take the Astros from last year. They got mediocre (or worse) offensive production out of the SS & C positions, yet still led all non-Colorado teams in offense. I wouldn't want a team of bat-less defensive specialists any more than I'd want a team of bashers at the plate, but butchers in the field. You need to have balance, and with 6 positions more than adequite offensively, my preference would be to place a premium on defense at the other 2, especially when they are the most important (along w/ CF).

You can't win if you can't score, that's a given. But to say that fielding isn't important is a little silly. Think about it from a pitcher's point of view. I can tell you (from personal experience in H.S. & from talking to a couple of ex-MLB pitchers) that it's a hell of a lot easier to pitch w/ a good defense behind you. Pitchers are human, even the most stoic get frustrated when easy plays are botched behind them. You start worrying about making perfect pitches & striking guys out, instead of just throwing free & easy.

I will agree that the SS position is the single most crucial one defensively. But how many runs do you really think a great defensive short stop saves over a mediocre one? I'd wager not all that many.

Rich Aurilia, who you'd reject for Everett, had the 7th highest VORP (value above replacement player) in the league, at 91.3 last year according to baseballprospectus.com .

91.3 runs better than the average player. That's a lot for defense to make up. For Everett, a below average hitter even for a SS, to match this... he's have to save almost 2/3 of a run per game with his defense. Hell, I don't think he saves 2/3 of a hit over Aurilia per game. Just aren't that many spectacular plays that can be made in a single ball game.

I may have been overly critical of Aurilia, I was really focusing on Tejada when I was writing that. I'm not familiar with the VORP metric, I'll read up on it & get back to you.

I don't know how to reasonably calculate runs prevented. I would say, however, that a Gold-Glove type SS saves 30-60 runs a year w/ his glove over a mediocre one. How did I come up w/ this number? Well, I pulled it straight outta the air. I'll do a little research over the weekend & get back to ya. Fielding stats are less instructive than hitting/pitching stats, however. There's no substitute for watching a player for an extended period of time. Take last night, for example, when the Hidalgo-AE-Ensberg relay got an out at 3rd. What stat could you use to indicate that AE's throw saved a run in that instance?

This is one of the reasons I love baseball so much. It is a very stat oriented game, but at the same time, there's so much that goes on that cannot be measured statistically.

Sorry, this isn't one of my more thought-out responses, it's 5:45 & I gotta get to happy hour. Go 'Stros.

[Joe Joe]

Originally posted by Buck Turgidson
I would say, however, that a Gold-Glove type SS saves 30-60 runs a year w/ his glove over a mediocre one.

I'd say this sounds about right. A great SS shortens innings. In the three run homer era, short inning save runs. I'd like to add, catchers are as important defensively as SS at the MLB level.

[haven]

Let me address the one thing that you seemed very certain about... the first paragraph.

I don't understand why an MLB team would need balance. Baseball is unique because of its isolation. On a football team, if you have four terrific O-linemen but only 1 good D-lineman... well, it's obvious which is more important to acquire.

In baseball, I just don't see how this is true. Whether someone contributes offensively, or defensively, it's still contribution. And players aren't really that synergistic... ie, having a great defender in CF may make up somewhat for a lack of range in LF or RF... but not all that much, since there's a limit to what anybody can do.

Your point about pitcher psychology is interesting. I only played 3b and 1b, so it would be hard for me to say.

But I still think that pitching is more important than fielding. Is it very helpful for a pitcher to have a good defense behind him? Certainly. But most players are going to make most plays, regardless of whether they're excellent... or very bad. Most outs are routine. And most players don't commit a significant # of errors... not enough that in doing such, one really hurts one's team.

The real issue, to me at least, is range. The ability to get to a ball that another guy could. I think there are some pretty decent stats for this - but let's leave them out of our discussion, if you wish. I just can't imagine even a great defensive player who can't hit well saving so many total bases as to make up for his lack of hitting. There just aren't enough opportunities.

I think that's a losing cause every day of the week. Now, I'm all for defense. I'd much rather have a good defensive player than a bad one, offense being equal... but at the same time, I just don't think that the "no-bat, big-glove types" ever really pay off.

[Timing]

Buck I require an update of your stance on Miguel Tejada. ;)

[DaDakota]

Timing,

How long have you been waiting to bring this up?

:)

DD

[Buck Turgidson]

I noticed you mentioned him in another thread, but I just let it go hoping that nobody would mention it again. :) At least when I miss I don't screw around...I miss big.

He's having an unbelievable year. He's improved in every aspect of his game, especially those I was faulting him for: plate discipline and defense. ARod is miles & miles ahead of any other big league SS, but Tejada's no worse than the 3rd best SS in baseball this year, probably 2nd best. It'll be interesting to see if Tejada can produce like this & keep improving with the glove in seasons to come.

[Timing]

Actually I was really stunned when he made the initial comment but I'm not an A's or anything. I just noticed Tejada was continuing to have an awesome season and the last few days he's gotten some press for his late inning stuff. I'm shocked that the A's have played so well without Giambi. I agree it will be interesting to see if this is a career year or indicative of Tejada's emergence as a real star in MLB.

I said I'd rather have Everett over Lugo so don't feel too bad. Lugo shocked the hell out of me with his defense this year.

[Buck Turgidson]

Originally posted by Timing
Lugo shocked the hell out of me with his defense this year.
He still sucks though. :D