Great game by the 'Stros

[Wakko67]

Man that was a good game. For a while I didn't think they'd score more than 2 runs, then in the fourth. WHOA! :eek: Roswalt pitched fairly well, but wasn't untouchable like he was last season. I'm sure he and Wade will improve as the season goes on. Must've been a great game to go to.

[BigM]

awesome game, oswalt pitched just fine, every bit as dominating until that inning he had extended time on the basepaths. the guy is about as unshakeable as humanly possible out there, just incredible. miller is close to the same way, just a little nervous on opening day but i don't see a problem in the future.

[Vengeance]

I imagine they are both just shaking a bit of rust off. Oswalt was dominating as usual, but from the account that I heard on the radio, he was not QUITE as precise as he usually is. But it's his first game of the season . . . Spring Training is hardly TRUE preparation for a starting pitcher. 2 to 4 more starts and they should each be at their VERY best consistently.

[DAROckets]

He pitched very well.A few times his placement was a bit off, but he would get it back under control after a few pitches.

Dotel came in for the 8th and dominated the inning.Wagner was a tad rusty but also looked good.

The bats were smoking..How about that HR from Ausmus..damm that was a shot.

[gr8-1]

Originally posted by DAROckets


Dotel came in for the 8th and dominated the inning.Wagner was a tad rusty
.

I've been hearing that since last year. Wags is not a dominant closer anymore.

[Buck Turgidson]

Originally posted by gr8-1


I've been hearing that since last year. Wags is not a dominant closer anymore.

How did he look rusty? He threw 1 inning last night with a 13 run lead, throwing 9 pitches (7 for strikes).

Last year:
39 for 41 in save opportunities (95.1%)
.198 BA , .599 OPS
K's per 9 innings were down, but his # pitches per plate appearance were the lowest of his career, suggesting he's focusing on outs, not strikeouts (which is a good thing).

We overpaid for him, but without a doubt he's a top-5 closer.

[bobrek]

Why do folks think Wagner is no longer a dominant closer? What has changed since last year when his save percentage was the highest in the major leagues? Just because he is no longer striking out hitters at the rate of 15/9 innings doesn't mean that he can't be successful. I'd rather see 10 pitches and 3 outs any way he can get them than 25 pitches which include a couple of walks and 3 K's.

[Raven Lunatic]

For those don't understand the doubts concerning Wagner of some us fans, here is an exerpt from Kevin's latest column at www.astrosconnection.com that perfectly explains my feelings towards Wagner.

Some things never change, and one of those things is that Billy Wagner still scares the bejeezus out of me despite overwhelming evidence that should point to the contrary. This fear originates from the fact that Wagner is every bit the one-trick pony that we've.. wait a minute, he's throwing the slider again? You remember the Wagner slider. It's the one that baffles hitters in the spring, and either HANGS LIKE LAUNDRY OR ONE-HOPS THE @#$%! DISH WHEN IT REALLY COUNTS. YEAH, HE'S ONLY BEEN WORKING ON IT FOR ABOUT FIVE YEARS NOW! IT'S FASTBALL OR NOTHIN! WE ALL KNOW IT'S COMING, WONDER IF THIS GUY'LL WHACK IT!!

See what I mean? I just can't be happy with Wagner for some reason. I'm comfortable with him in a 3-run ballgame, but anything closer than that and I find myself pacing. On the other hand, a recent ranking of MLB closers places the Gas Can in the upper third overall. He was also number one in save percentage (95.1%) last year so I don't have a truly legitimate reason to complain. What is it that the numbers hide? I guess it just SEEMS like the Astros are riding the ragged edge of disaster whenever he's on the mound.

There is no logical reason (looking at his numbers) to be nervous when Wagner is closing a a tight game. But regardless of that fact, I cringe anyway. I feel like he is just on the brink of going from elite closer to average closer. As if he is teetering on the edge of a cliff of the elite closers, and when he falls, it will not be one loss, or a couple blown saves, but he will suddenly decline into mediocrity with half the league suddenly being able to catch up to his fastball.

Like I said, there is no good reason for it, but I can't help this fear. There is no one else on the Astros roster of whom I feel this way, but I can't explain to you why this fear rests solely on Wagner's performance.

[haven]

I'm nervous about Wagner solely because of his contract. When you're paying a guy 3-4m per year, you can eat the contract if his performance drops. But when you're paying him like Wagner, then there's a tendency to stick with the guy as long as there's even a faint hope that he'll bounce back.

Case in point: we released Nitkowski, but stuck with Matthews despite the fact that Nitkowski probably has more value... simply because the Astros gave one a guaranteed contract.

With Wagner, who's making a ridiculous amount for a closer, I think he'll keep pitching long after he no longer deserves the closing role on merit alone (if he does collapse).

[MadMax]

Billy Wagner is my favorite player!!!

you guys leave him alone!!

plus, my wife thinks he's cute, so she's more likely to go to games when he's in an Astros uniform!!! He's my ticket to more games this season!!! Go, Billy, go!!!! :)

[Timing]

I think the logical reason is that Wagner is a one pitch pitcher with average control and that one pitch isn't as good as it used to be. Not to mention he can only pitch one inning at a time and always comes in with no one on base to start an inning. Very very rarely do you see Wagner come in during the 8th with runners on or even during the 9th with runners on. The best closers usually don't get those kinds of easy assignments.

[bobrek]

Originally posted by Timing
Not to mention he can only pitch one inning at a time and always comes in with no one on base to start an inning. Very very rarely do you see Wagner come in during the 8th with runners on or even during the 9th with runners on. The best closers usually don't get those kinds of easy assignments.

With the exception of Benitez from the Mets, the top 6 save guys in the NL last year all avaeraged less than 1 inning per game:

Nen - 79 games 77 2/3 innings
Benitez - 73, 76
Hoffman - 62, 60 1/3
Mesa - 71, 69 1/3
Wagner - 64, 62 2/3
Shaw - 77, 74 2/3

Most of the closers come in to pitch the 9th inning in most save situations. There is the rare (nowadays) exception when a starter pitches a complete game. Wagner is no different than any other NL reliever. There are a few in the AL with noticeably more innings than games (Rivera, Foulke and Isringhausen), but AL managers are more apt to put a closer in in the 8th inning because they don't have to worry about pinch hitters.

[Timing]

That means nothing. If Nen pitches 1 1/3 one game and 2/3 another game (inheriting runners in both games) that's the same as Billy pitching 1 inning two times with no one on base? Do you have their runners inherited figures? I can't find them but I'll bet Nen's runners inherited is probably twice as high as Billy's.

[francis 4 prez]

I also have some of the same feelings with Wagner. It's not even necessarily that I don't think he'll close it out (39 of 41 says otherwise) but you just don't feel like he's always in complete control. Now the Wagner of 99. OMG, you simply knew the game was over when he stepped on the mound that year. He was throwing as hard as ever and had pinpoint control on the outside and inside corners. However, since getting that Wagner back probably won't happen, it's still good to have the one we have now.

[bobrek]

From a quick look at the 2001 game logs for Nen and Wagner, it appears that Wagner had 9 saves where he pitched the 9th with a 3 run lead and Nen had 10. I say 'appears' because they have some weird final scores in the games (e.g. Nen had a save in a 3-3 LOSS) and the games are no longer accessible.

NONE of Wagner's last 17 saves last year were of the 3 run lead 1 inning variety.

[JayZ750]

Originally posted by Timing
That means nothing. If Nen pitches 1 1/3 one game and 2/3 another game (inheriting runners in both games) that's the same as Billy pitching 1 inning two times with no one on base? Do you have their runners inherited figures? I can't find them but I'll bet Nen's runners inherited is probably twice as high as Billy's.

I found this article dated 8/29/01 which lists runners stranded per inherited for relievers since 1998. Nen isn't on the list.

http://www.usatoday.com/sports/bbw/2001-08-29/2001-08-29-cover-stranded.htm

then there is also this site
http://www.basesproduced.com/
if it is believed, Nen inherited 17 runners last year while Wags inherited 9. I don't find this too surprising though given the amazing success of Dotel setting him up.

Overall, I think Wagner deserves his position as one of the top closers in the game. From the table in the first link, you can tell that Wagner does inherit far fewer runners than some closers - Hoffman, Riviera, but his percentage stranded, while not the top of the chart, is still very good. We are talking a difference of 5% points over a long period. If Wags inherited the same amount of runners but had a Trevor Hoffman like percentage, he would have let 2 more runners score over the period. If Wags both inherited more runners (ala a Hoffman) and had a higher percentage, he would have let only let 4 more runner - 4! - have scored than Trevor Hoffman.

Wags is still very good. There is no need to bite your nails yet when he comes in for saves.

[red]

wagner is having one of those nail bitting experiences right now...

[haven]

Great game. Too bad a record low was there to see it. What the hell is wrong with Houston? Team fields a good on-field product, and nobody watches it.

[Groogrux]

Originally posted by haven
Great game. Too bad a record low was there to see it. What the hell is wrong with Houston? Team fields a good on-field product, and nobody watches it.

Probably had something to do with the start time. Not defending it though.

[stringthing]

Could also have to do with the 'stros jacking up the prices on tix, yet trimming payroll. We are a mid market team (to hear them tell it) as far as payroll, but an upper market team as far as ticket prices.

Curious no?

[gr8-1]

I guess I jsut remember the good ole days when Wags would blow away the likes of Sosa/Grace, etc. and all the Cubs announcer would say was "you know, the Cubs need to hang on until they get WAgner out of there. He's embarassing them."

Maybe he is more efficient, I don't know. He just doesn't seem as dominant I guess.

[haven]

Could also have to do with the 'stros jacking up the prices on tix, yet trimming payroll. We are a mid market team (to hear them tell it) as far as payroll, but an upper market team as far as ticket prices.

Trimming payroll is only "bad" when it means the team becomes worse. Has that happened? Not at all.

Ensberg will almost certainly be as good, or better, than the OBP deprived Castilla (never met a pitch he didn't like)... and Ward should be almost as good as the 37 year Alou, who isn't worth the money being paid to him.

I was upset when Hampton left. I was annoyed when Everett was traded. But when your team just won the pennant, kept the important players, and is stacked with good young players... there's no reason not to attend.

Lame! Lame!

Oh, and mid-market teams don't necessarily charge less :). The big difference between mid-market teams and small market teams lies in tv rights and marketing, not attendance... although attendance does matter.

But you're paying for an on-field product. And the Astros give you one of the best.

[Behad]

Originally posted by JayZ750


From the table in the first link, you can tell that Wagner does inherit far fewer runners than some closers - Hoffman, Riviera, but his percentage stranded, while not the top of the chart, is still very good.

Remember, those #'s are inherited runners since 1998. Wagner missed most of 2000. If he had not missed all those games, his # of inherited runners would be larger.

And I suspect his % would be higher too, considering he blew so many saves before his injury was discovered.

[deepellumrocket]

Originally posted by haven


Oh, and mid-market teams don't necessarily charge less :). The big difference between mid-market teams and small market teams lies in tv rights and marketing, not attendance... although attendance does matter.



In fact, when I was in Los Angeles last month, I visite Dodger Stadium and their ticket prices at all levels were cheaper than the Astros current prices. They in line with what I remember the prices to be at the 'Dome.

BTW, that is a fantastic, beautiful, and slightly funky park.

[MadMax]

Originally posted by haven
Great game. Too bad a record low was there to see it. What the hell is wrong with Houston? Team fields a good on-field product, and nobody watches it.

have you checked out attendance across the league??? we're not far off even from other competitive teams ...i was surprised to learn the Cardinals didn't draw 30K in either of their last two games vs. the Rockies...the first series in St. Louis, a GREAT baseball town with tons of preseason hype.

Somebody called in to sportsradio here the other day talking about how his tix jumped from $25 to $33 per game....That's nearly another $700/year for season tix!!! That's a huge jump!! He said he could no longer justify that for a full season, so he cut back to a mini-season plan. I imagine he's not alone.

The Texans aren't helping either...their season ticket base is HUGE!!! I think lots of people are funnelling entertainment dollars that way...me, included!

[haven]

Football over baseball?

Boooo!

Yeah, yeah... I know, most people in Texas like it that way. And if we were talking college football, it's close... I just can't get as excited by pro football as most other sports. Guess I'll never understand it...