Is it time to reevaluate Billy Wagner as the Astros' closer?

[bcdjad]

I'm concerned that Billy has given up 3+ runs twice in the last 3 relief appearances. Granted, this is only Spring Training and Wagner entered these games with large leads. However, this is part of a downward performance trend for Wagner in the last two seasons. He's lost at least 2 miles / hour on his fastball, and more than once last year, he gave up too many runs for someone who has been considered one of the best relievers in the last 5 years.

If I were the manager, I would seriously consider having Octavio Dotel as my closer. I wouldn't trade Wagner, but maybe this would serve as a wakeup call for him to do better. Dotel is throwing it well right now, and in my opinion, performed better than Wagner last year.

Comments?

[Raven Lunatic]

I am a little concerned with Billy too. From what I have read, it is not as much the slight decrease in velocity that is effecting him, but his fastball has lost a great deal of its movement as well. He is not fooling hitters anymore, and he never really developed a second pitch. His slider is occasionally effective, but he can't really throw it for strikes much. I remember last season he was experimenting with a curveball. I think that experiment failed miserably.

Please, Billy, even if you pitched as well as you have ever pitched, I think you are getting overpaid. But don't choke in addition that that!

[Drewdog]

Im not worried because we have Octavio Dotel who can close if Billy starts sucking.

[PhiSlammaJamma]

I thought he was pretty good last year. You have to factor enron into the equation. I'm sure some of the top relievers have struggled there too.

[bobrek]

No.

79 K's, 63 innings, 39 saves, 2 blown saves, .198 opponents batting average.

Let's wait until the regular season before dismissing Wagner. Just as Oswalt won't continue his phenomenal spring (24 innings 1 ER), barring injury, Wagner will certainly get better.

[haven]

I don't think it's time to re-evaluate Wagner's spot, but I do think it's time to re-think handing closers 8 million dollar contracts.

[Behad]

Originally posted by bcdjad
I wouldn't trade Wagner, but maybe this would serve as a wakeup call for him to do better.

I have a problem with this statement. The only way this could work is if you believe Wagner is not doing the best he possibly can. If he has lost something on his fastball, then having him not pitch as much will not magically make his fastball faster or livelier.

If there is a problem, it's in Wagner's arm , not his work ethic or makeup.

[mfclark]

Originally posted by bobrek
Just as Oswalt won't continue his phenomenal spring (24 innings 1 ER), barring injury, Wagner will certainly get better.

You know, it really wouldn't suprise me if Oswalt DID continue his performance this spring for a good portion of the spring. He won't be that good all year, but there will definately be stretches that he will be as good.

[bobrek]

mfclark

What I meant to write is that Oswalt will not continue his great spring throughout the season. You cannot expect a pitcher to have a 0.38 ERA all year.

Just as Oswalt won't be this great all year, Wagner won't be that bad.

[kidrock8]

If Wagner does struggle, we always have Dotel. The question then would be, who would our setup guy be.

[Major]

What I meant to write is that Oswalt will not continue his great spring throughout the season. You cannot expect a pitcher to have a 0.38 ERA all year.

What do you mean?!?! I expect him to have an 0.38 ERA, just like I expect Ausmus to keep batting 0.380!!!!

Seriously, though, the issue with Wagner is not really his ERA. He let lots of people on base last year, and that's kinda "playing with fire" although he got out of most of his jams pretty well. The stat that really jumps out at you is strikeouts. He used to be getting 2 strikeouts per inning, and that's down to nearly 1. He set a very, very high standard in 1999, but it was apparently when watching him last year that he couldn't just overpower people like he did in 1999. I thought that was the big difference in Dotel vs. Wagner last year -- Dotel just destroyed people left and right, while Wagner got the job done but with a lot less "wow".

Hopefully, it was just a result of the first year back after surgery and regains that movement that gave him all the strikeouts.

[DVauthrin]

Major: btw on your Astros backup catcher question, it is Gregg Zaun a lefthanded hitter who was with the royals last year

[BigM]

i think wagner tries out alot of things in spring training, working on stuff that he might find useful when it actually counts. i remember reading at least one time this spring he intentionally let batters on to see how well he could get out of the jam. i'll have to wait until the season starts before i judge him. as far as last year is concerned wagner was unbelievable, i mean he blew only 2 saves. sure he didn't have as good of strike out numbers but he did better than anyone could ask for.

[gr8-1]

79 K's, 63 innings


Still a great ratio, but thoey pale in comparison to his earlier years. I think hitters a) have caught up to his fastball b) he is inducing more grounders with his breaking ball or c) both. But, I don't feel as confident with him out there anymore. He doesn't overpower guys as much.

[bobrek]

I'd rather see about 8 pitches and 3 outs from Wagner.