Something big is about to go down

[treeman]

I have a contact who lives right next to a base where B-52s are stationed, and he says they're all gone. We're sending an unspecified number of F-15s and F-16s to the "Persian Gulf". My father works for Tesoro, and they supply the NAS (Naval Air Station) in San Diego, and they told him to stop sending gas through the pipeline because no one was there - everyone has left. Same source (my father at Tesoro), the AF and Navy are buying s*itpools of jet fuel - more than in 1990-1. The Theodore Roosevelt set sail for the Med today with *unspecified orders* (which means combat). Reports of Ticos and Arleigh Burkes setting sail for unknown destinations have been coming in all day. We already have two carrier groups in theater. The 82nd Airborne is on standby, and the 101st Air Assault is gearing up. The 75th Rangers is on standby.



The B-52s are going to Diego Garcia, my best bet. The "Persian Gulf" (destination for the F-15/16s) means Kuwait/Saudi. We're throwing practically the whole Fleet out there, and there's no telling where they'll end up. The 82nd can be put anywhere, and the 101st can be put anywhere the 75th Rangers can (which is anywhere).

Something big is about to go down. My guess is Iraq and Afghanistan... Duh.

:eek: :eek: :eek: :cool:

[Timing]

I saw the USS Bataan heading out also. I didn't even know we had a USS Bataan. I wonder what they're going to do with the B-52's. Carpet bomb the mountains to destroy the caves?

[treeman]

The Bataan's an amphib, right? Hmmm...

Carpet bombing the Afghani mountains would be pointless. Carpet bombing the troops the Taliban's massing on Pakistan's border might not be. Carpet bombing the Iraqi Republican Guard would be just fine...

The B-52s also carry ALCMs - cruise missiles.

[Mango]

treeman,

The US mobilized plenty of ground troops during the Gulf War and the units that you mentioned are not enough "manpower" to do anything substantial in Iraq. Plus additional troops from Allies that are lacking in the current deployment.

The airpower and naval forces are worthy, but will be the support rather than the spearhead.

Do you have any sources in Turkey?



Mango

[ROCKET RICH NYC]

A friend of mine told me that British Petroleum last week moved an unusual amount of Oil to Diego Garcia. I didn't know what he meant by that until now.

[Mango]

USS Bataan is an Amphib-Assault with Marines, copters and hovercraft.



Mango

[treeman]

Mango:

I'd very much like to know what's going on in Incirlik now, but my guess would be that it's the same as everywhere else - everyone's just getting ready. No, no sources there...

I think you're mistaken about the 82nd / 101st being insufficient in Iraq. I know, you're thinking armor, but we've got a full brigade of armor prepositioned in Kuwait, as well as a MPS (marine prepositioned squadron) in Diego with another full brigade on Ro/Ro ships. All you have to do is fly the troops there. That's nearly a full division of armor - more than enough to beat anything the Iraqis can throw at us.

And the 82nd is the best trained infantry division on the planet. It is also better at destroying armor than most armored divisions (except NATO divs) on the planet. I would be very confident with the 82nd, 2 armored brigades, and some elements of the 101st - backed up by massive air power, of course... Iraq is depleted. It could've stopped that force 10 years ago, but as it is they can barely subdue their own insurrections, much less fight a professional force like this.

It's like pitting Steve Francis against two kids you just picked up off the street.

[Cohen]

I hope the Taliban gives bin laden et. al. up. It may say more for the world to stand together to end this, than to end it by force.

Of course, it is likely than force will be used in some of the other countries harboring terrorists anyway.

[treeman]

Personally, a large part of me hopes they don't give him up (they've already said they won't anyway, so it's moot). But if they did give him up then many Americans wouldn't be in the mood anymore to do what has to be done .

Who here thinks that when bin Laden is dead that terrorism will suddenly stop?

There are 20 or 30 guys out there just like him who will step up and take control of Al Qaeda. Saddam is still there, and he's still giving money (and likely biological weapons) to these guys and telling them to go kill Americans. The Beka'a valley is still a hot spot terrorist resort - pushing out at least a dozen dedicated, well-trained, motivated suicide bombers a day. The Iranians still have three camps that the CIA knows about.

If America settles for bin Laden and nothing else, then we've lost.

[SmeggySmeg]

Yeah kill thousands of them, hopefully heaps of completely innocent people aswell, so then they can be motivated to commit further killing as revenge , then the US can commit can bomb some more and we have a vicious circle of retaliation, sound familiar.

[Mango]

Timing,

You are on the East Coast and saw the Bataan lately?

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
treeman,


Did you have recent military service?

Wouldn't you expect Iraq to go chemical/biological in the next encounter with the US? Why haven't the oil markets already moved strongly if your heavy action scenario is correct? I know that Iraq is not popular in the Middle East, but I still don't understand how it will be acceptable for the US to topple Saddam and install a Pro-Western Government (read: puppet). There is already enough resentment for the US having Israel as a client.


Mango

[treeman]

Smeg:

Vicious circle - yes. Eternal - not necessarily.

Mango:

I've been studying it for years (wrote two papers on it in grad school, which were forwarded to DoD), but I never got around to doing it. Now seems as good a time as any. I did actually talk to a recruiter today, and am going to take the ASVAB tomorrow... OCS path.

I would not be surprised to see the Iraqis use chem/bio weapons against our troops. I wouldn't even be surprised if they had a nuke or two... But we will not respond in kind. We don't need to.

If (when) we topple Saddam, we would do well to think twice about installing a pro-Western regime. Our allies are pro-Western regimes, and they're still popping out suicide bombers like a fat man who just ate a bean pie. I'm not sure there's any way, however, to avoid such hate even if we don't take these people out. The Iraqis hate us with a passion (wonder why?), and that hate is not going to just go away on its own.

If we can depose Saddam (and more importantly, the Ba'ath party), give the Rumallah and Kirkuk oil fields back to the Iraqi people (along with their wealth), and install a UN-supported pro-Islamic regime, I suspect that the vast majority of Iraqis would be very pleased. We'd also have to rebuild their country after we leveled it (lotsa $). But you have to keep in mind that most Iraqis hate Saddam, they just fear him more than they hate him. We will be doing them a huge favor by getting rid of him and his party.

[DREAMer]

As I sat watching the news tonight with its images of bombers, fighters, carriers, etc all heading towards the Middle East, a thought ran through my mind.

"What if the terrorist attack last Tuesday was a trick? What if the terrorists want us to send our military to the Middle East, so they can do some real damage here in the States?"

I mean, these guys are obviously very intelligent and very patient. OBL used the failure of the first WTC bombing as a training example. I'm sure the Al Q'aida was monitoring how we positioned and sent our troops into the Middle East during The Gulf War. I'm sure they used the U.S. embassy bombings in Africa to gather information on how we'd react. The same goes for the attack on the U.S. Navy destroyer. They training at flight schools here in the U.S. They even trained at gyms in martial arts and self defense tactics. They have been gathering information for years. Maybe they know a whole lot more than we give them credit for.

I just have a sick feeling that they've lured the rooster out of the hen house to have easier access to the eggs.....

[Timing]

Originally posted by Mango
Timing,

You are on the East Coast and saw the Bataan lately?


Mango


Actually I saw it earlier today on some news program. It stuck in my mind because I'd never heard of a USS Bataan. I had no "inside info" on the subject. Sorry if it came out that way!

[Mango]

Timing,

OK.........but it was leaving port from the US rather than already out on patrol and then being redirected to the Middle East?

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
DREAMer,


The weapons used on American soil are things like truck/car bombs and hijacked aircraft. Heavy Bombers (B-52), Stealth fighters and Amphib ships like the Bataan are useless in that type of action.



Mango

[treeman]

Originally posted by DREAMer
"What if the terrorist attack last Tuesday was a trick? What if the terrorists want us to send our military to the Middle East, so they can do some real damage here in the States?"

I guarantee you that they wanted this to happen. These people are crazy, not stupid. They want a jihad - a war between Islam and the West (Christianity, in particular). Osama knew we would respond. He wants us to put Pakistan, Syria, Saudi, Iran, Iraq, Jordan, Egypt, Sudan, and the occupied territories in the hot seat. He wants us all to go on a war footing. He wants WW3.

He just thinks he can actually win it. That's the main problem, and that's why people are going to die.

His plan is to get us to respond with another massive bombing and (hopefully) a ground campaign. He thinks - rightly - that this will inflame the whole Middle East. Arabs and Muslims all over that region will be screaming for American blood, because he believes - rightly, again - that poor, uneducated people can easily be stirred to war. He has just underestimated the opponent.

But if these people are going to be attacking us this way, and almost certainly with real WMD in the future, then how can we afford NOT to fight back? They WANT TO KILL US!!!

There is no easy solution. There will be no treaties ending hostilities, where everyone just goes back to living their lives. But we have no choice, unless we are content to be attacked. We must fight back in every way we can.

[Achebe]

The juggler meows friday mornings. Meow meow.

[treeman]

Originally posted by Mango

The weapons used on American soil are things like truck/car bombs and hijacked aircraft. Heavy Bombers (B-52), Stealth fighters and Amphib ships like the Bataan are useless in that type of action.

I know this was for DREAMer, but... The Bataan carries a MEU-SOC (Marine Expeditionary Unit - Special Operations Capable). About 2200 Marines, give or take. Those guys deploy in ARGs (Amphibious Ready Groups) and are tailor-made for this kind of situation. The Bataan also carries a large complement of helicopters, as well as some AV-8B Harriers Strike Fighters. It is basically a composite aircraft carrier.

A MEU-SOC is best used not for an invasion/occupation, but for rescue and raiding situations, which is what we're likely to face in Afghanistan. Other ships (an ARG is usually 3 ships) carry tanks, more marines, support troops/units, material, aircraft (helicopters), landing craft, etc...

Flexibility is the key. Every CVBG (carrier battle group, with its attendant ARG) is able to deal with a multitude of different and disparate situations. All 3-4 carrier groups we're deploying could concievably hit 3 separate targets simultaneously.

You never know.

[Mango]

Last post then sleep........


So the US has to have some type of basing rights adjacent to Afghansitan for a quick strike helicopter force to operate. Roundtripping to the Bataan isn't going to work. What is the range on the Harrier?


Mango

[Timing]

Originally posted by Mango
Timing,

OK.........but it was leaving port from the US rather than already out on patrol and then being redirected to the Middle East?


Mango


The Bataan left Norfolk a few hours after the Teddy Roosevelt group.

Here's a small note about it.

http://www.msnbc.com/local/rtfre/a11941.asp

[DREAMer]

Mango,

The weapons used on American soil are things like truck/car bombs and hijacked aircraft. Heavy Bombers (B-52), Stealth fighters and Amphib ships like the Bataan are useless in that type of action.

True, but the terrorists don't seem to be following historical guidelines.

Also, I'm talking more about the number of men we're sending over there. Obviously, however many we send there, cannot also be here. And, what about all the F-15s, and 16s, that are being deployed.

All I'm saying is that the terrorists ability to plan and execute the unexpected is what worries me. I just feel that if we react in a way that is expected, we might just get something unexpected in return.

[Lynus302]

Originally posted by DREAMer
Mango,
True, but the terrorists don't seem to be following historical guidelines.

Also, I'm talking more about the number of men we're sending over there. Obviously, however many we send there, cannot also be here. And, what about all the F-15s, and 16s, that are being deployed.

All I'm saying is that the terrorists ability to plan and execute the unexpected is what worries me. I just feel that if we react in a way that is expected, we might just get something unexpected in return.

If I may offer my $.02, I understand your concern, but I wouldn't worry any more than we already should (I'm speaking of just worrying about war in general). We have many men state-side. We won't send literally everything over there all at once. We'll still have National Guard, Coast Guard, and reserves from every branch of the service, not to mention our normal police forces, S.W.A.T. teams, CIA, FBI, Secret Service officers, etc.

[treeman]

Originally posted by Mango
So the US has to have some type of basing rights adjacent to Afghansitan for a quick strike helicopter force to operate. Roundtripping to the Bataan isn't going to work. What is the range on the Harrier?

You're on the right track, but asking the wrong questions, if that makes any sense...

Harriers can operate off of any airstrip in the world. A C-5 Galaxy can't. Get out a map of all known Afghani or Iraqi airfields (if you can find such a map :) ) and look at how long the longest takeoff/landing strip is, and if it's shorter than the takeoff run of a C-5 then it's a likely target. Now, we've been building alot of C-17 Globemasters (which have a shorter runtime), so this may not matter... But the C-5s are the only ones we can bring tanks in with. We won't bring tanks into Afghanistan from the sea, but we will need some, and the C-5 is the best equipped to carry an M1A2 MBT...

The Rangers can also take any airport/airfield in the world. That complicates things, as it should...

[Ottomaton]

Just to be clear, the Theodore Rosevelt and it's battle group are part of the larger Bataan Amphibious Ready Group which also includes the USS Shreveport and the USS Whidbey Island.

Learn more about the Bataan at:

The Home Page of the USS Bataan (http://www.spear.navy.mil/ships/lhd5/)

[treeman]

Ottoman, The TR is always the King of its battle group. The ARG (Bataan, WI, and Shreveport) are subordinate to the nuclear aircraft carrier. I'm sure that would irk a Navy person...

[ROCKSS]

I am watching the Today show and reportedly the Taliban is/has asked Bin laden to leave the country of his own free will. I dont know if this is just political posturing, or the Taliban realizes there about to see the US forces up close. They have also declared a "Holy War" if the American attack. Operation "Infinite Justice" has begun.

treeman- sounds like you know what your talking about, thanks for all your info. If you decide to join the Military I wish you luck and may God be with you

[Dr of Dunk]

Originally posted by ROCKSS

treeman- sounds like you know what your talking about, thanks for all your info. If you decide to join the Military I wish you luck and may God be with you

I was about to post the same thing. I'm impressed by what you've been typing lately. Now you could be blowing smoke up our collective arses but you seem like you know what you're talking about. Thanks for your input, treeman.

[Pole]

Help me out here:

I know that Tom Clancy wrote some fiction similar to the WTC destruction, but what writer/book involved a war between China and Taiwan, and a US carrier group was lured into a bay and destroyed with a nuke?

I read it several years back, and now I can't remember the title or the author.

[glynch]

Teeman, I agree you do seem to be up on your military hardware and tactics and even what the hardldiners in Washingon want to do e.g widen the response into Iraq and other countries. You also said:

They want a jihad - a war between Islam and the West (Christianity, in particular). Osama knew we would respond. He wants us to put Pakistan, Syria, Saudi, Iran, Iraq, Jordan, Egypt, Sudan, and the occupied territories in the hot seat. He wants us all to go on a war footing. He wants WW3

This is correct also, but (and you knew this was coming)......such policies will at best eliminate some current terrorists cells in the short run. Long run it could well make things worse. It also fall into the trap set by Bin Laden since you also want: since our hardliners want to put Pakistan, Syria, Saudi, Iran, Iraq, Jordan, Egypt, Sudan, and the occupied territories in the hot seat

We already created Bin Laden and assisted in the birth of the taliban. If civil war breaks out in Pakistan due to our effort to bring Bin Laden to justice we could then create the first fundamentalist state with nuclear weapons. Scary considering they believe they'll go to heaven if they die in a nuclear war.

[Ottomaton]

Originally posted by treeman
Ottoman, The TR is always the King of its battle group. The ARG (Bataan, WI, and Shreveport) are subordinate to the nuclear aircraft carrier. I'm sure that would irk a Navy person...


Sorry. That's the way that the commander of the Bataan (a Captain Martin Allard) described it and I just paraphrased it. I apologise to anyone who was irked.

[Colby]

Good info going on here. Might I make a suggestion.

This "new enemy" doesn't have intelligence gathering capabilities that we are used to. They can get more from CCN than their agencies.

I enjoy talking about troop deployments, gas reserves, etc., but for security reasons, its best we cut it out. I'm not trying to imply that terrorist check the CCBBS, but why help them.

One check of this thread reveals much that could normaly take months to find out.