xcrunner51
07-05-2012, 12:14 PM
A spin-off of Baseball America and Seedlings to Stars’s depth charts, here’s my take on state of Astros minor league pitching depth.
As with the position players, the pitching depth has taken a large step forward this year. With a massive influx of talent from trades and the draft, promising pitching prospects can be found from AAA all the way down to the rookie Gulf Coast League. There are many reasons why the overall grade is improved. First, there’s just straight up more talent. Secondly, some of the ‘older’ prospects whose stars had dimmed have had rebound years. Third, more prospects found have success at the next level. This is seemingly at rates unseen in the past few years. In general, the system has a seen a substantial rise in top-talent and low-level depth. Greeneville and Tri-City are chock full of prospects.
It’s not all positive though; many of former top-5 pitching prospects have struggled this year. Cosart, Oberholtzer and Clemens come to mind. Former second rounder Tanner Bashue has completely fallen off the map. And while the front office did a good job of shoring up top right-handed talent, there’s still a dearth of top lefty talent. Most of the talent is concentrated at Class A levels or lower, which for the most part matches the position prospects side.
Right-Handed Starter Upside: B+
Right-Handed Starter Depth: A-
Left-Handed Starter Upside: C
Left-Handed Starter Depth: B-
Bullpen arms: B
Overall system pitching grade: B
Starting Pitcher #1: Jarred Cosart (RHP). An up-and-down year for the home-town boy. Starting the year back at AA – Corpus, he basically hasn’t taken a leap forward or backward. He has a solid, if unspectacular era of 3.91 in 13 starts. He got one spot start in OKC, did nothing with it, and was immediately returned to AA. Cosart still has the same incredible raw stuff and the same problems with mechanical consistency and strike-out rates. Because of this, many nationals analysts are starting to sour on him as a frontline starter and project him as a back-of-the-bullpen (BotB) pitcher. What’s been surprising is his attitude. He’s been very vocal on twitter about his distaste with Astros promotions/demotions. Cosart is not pitching well enough to be a tolerable asshole.
Starting Pitcher #2: Lance McCullers Jr. (RHP). Coming of an ESPN National Player of the Year senior season at Tampa Jesuit, he fell in the draft to the Astros at 41 due to signability concerns. The upside? He features a 4-seam fastball that averages 94-96 mph and will touch 100mph. His best off-speed offering is a two-plane break slider that has been rated a potential plus-plus pitch. He also throws a curve and change-up. As with many young pitchers, mechanics and consistency are issue. There is also a concern for projection, as he’s already a big guy at 6-2, 195lbs. Similar to Cosart, his raw stuff is so good analysts have him pegged as a BotB guy if starting doesn’t work out. Otherwise he projects as a future top-of-the-rotation pitcher, an ace in fact*. He will start the season with the GCL Astros on July 13th and move up to Greeneville at some point this season.
Starting Pitcher #3: Mike Foltynewicz (RHP). In a repeat year at Lexington, Folty has been kicking ass with a 9-2 record and 2.51 era. A former supplemental first rounder, he probably has the best pure stuff in the system behind Cosart and McCullers. He has a mid-90’s fastball and a smattering of secondary offerings. Now the downside: he hasn’t pitched as well as his first-glance numbers indicate. His fielding independent era (FIP) is 3.61 and his strike-outs per 9 (K/9) is a lowly 6.8. He’s done all he can in LoA so he’ll see a promotion to HiA or AA mid to late this season. If he can continue to make adjustments he could see success at later levels. His ceiling remains a good #2 starter but it’s unlikely he will reach that.
Starting Pitcher #4: Nick Tropeano (RHP). A 5th round pick last year and a revelation this year in his first full season of pro ball, Tropeano has attracted plenty of attention for his work in Lexington. John Sickels gave him honorable mention status in his most recent Top 120 prospect list. The scouting report on Tropeano was a polished college arm with a mediocre fastball. He was expected to rise quickly through the system but top out at a back-of-the-rotation (BOR) starter like Dallas Keuchel. His record this season is 7-4 with a 2.55 era and 10k/9in in 95.1 innings between LoA Lexington and HiA Lancaster. His first start in HiA produced the highest game score in the Astros system this year: Dominance. What’s very exciting is that current scouting reports say his fastball touches 96mph in games now. Combine that with his best-in-college-baseball changeup and he potentially has two plus pitches. I’d say his current ceiling is a solid middle-of-rotation (MOR) starter, but if he continues to add mph to his fastball and refine his secondary pitches that could change. He’s a candidate for AA next season.
Starting Pitcher #5: Paul Clemens (RHP) This was my toughest selection; the gap between him and those behind him is minimal at best. Acquired in the Michael Bourn trade last season, Clemens probably has the best repertoire of pitches left. He features a 4-seam fastball that averages 93-96mph and is stated to have a solid curve and slider. His minor league record was above-average in stops in HiA and AA ball but has completely hit a wall in AAA. He currently has an 8-7 record in AAA with a 6.42 era and a 6.0 K/9 ratio. He’s also been prone to the HR this year, giving up 13 homers in 17 starts. With three solid pitches, his ceiling is a MOR pitcher. David Coleman of the Crawfishboxes likens him to Bud Norris. Unfortunately, he seems slated to a BotB career. He could see relief work in Houston next year.
*I hate the overuse of the ‘ace’ moniker in prospect listings. Ace is very specific guy who you’d be scared to see in the playoffs. A badass. There’s maybe 15 of them in league. A top-of-the-rotation guy is someone you see comfortably as your #1 pitcher. Often times the line between a lesser #1 and a strong #2 is indistinguishable.
As with the position players, the pitching depth has taken a large step forward this year. With a massive influx of talent from trades and the draft, promising pitching prospects can be found from AAA all the way down to the rookie Gulf Coast League. There are many reasons why the overall grade is improved. First, there’s just straight up more talent. Secondly, some of the ‘older’ prospects whose stars had dimmed have had rebound years. Third, more prospects found have success at the next level. This is seemingly at rates unseen in the past few years. In general, the system has a seen a substantial rise in top-talent and low-level depth. Greeneville and Tri-City are chock full of prospects.
It’s not all positive though; many of former top-5 pitching prospects have struggled this year. Cosart, Oberholtzer and Clemens come to mind. Former second rounder Tanner Bashue has completely fallen off the map. And while the front office did a good job of shoring up top right-handed talent, there’s still a dearth of top lefty talent. Most of the talent is concentrated at Class A levels or lower, which for the most part matches the position prospects side.
Right-Handed Starter Upside: B+
Right-Handed Starter Depth: A-
Left-Handed Starter Upside: C
Left-Handed Starter Depth: B-
Bullpen arms: B
Overall system pitching grade: B
Starting Pitcher #1: Jarred Cosart (RHP). An up-and-down year for the home-town boy. Starting the year back at AA – Corpus, he basically hasn’t taken a leap forward or backward. He has a solid, if unspectacular era of 3.91 in 13 starts. He got one spot start in OKC, did nothing with it, and was immediately returned to AA. Cosart still has the same incredible raw stuff and the same problems with mechanical consistency and strike-out rates. Because of this, many nationals analysts are starting to sour on him as a frontline starter and project him as a back-of-the-bullpen (BotB) pitcher. What’s been surprising is his attitude. He’s been very vocal on twitter about his distaste with Astros promotions/demotions. Cosart is not pitching well enough to be a tolerable asshole.
Starting Pitcher #2: Lance McCullers Jr. (RHP). Coming of an ESPN National Player of the Year senior season at Tampa Jesuit, he fell in the draft to the Astros at 41 due to signability concerns. The upside? He features a 4-seam fastball that averages 94-96 mph and will touch 100mph. His best off-speed offering is a two-plane break slider that has been rated a potential plus-plus pitch. He also throws a curve and change-up. As with many young pitchers, mechanics and consistency are issue. There is also a concern for projection, as he’s already a big guy at 6-2, 195lbs. Similar to Cosart, his raw stuff is so good analysts have him pegged as a BotB guy if starting doesn’t work out. Otherwise he projects as a future top-of-the-rotation pitcher, an ace in fact*. He will start the season with the GCL Astros on July 13th and move up to Greeneville at some point this season.
Starting Pitcher #3: Mike Foltynewicz (RHP). In a repeat year at Lexington, Folty has been kicking ass with a 9-2 record and 2.51 era. A former supplemental first rounder, he probably has the best pure stuff in the system behind Cosart and McCullers. He has a mid-90’s fastball and a smattering of secondary offerings. Now the downside: he hasn’t pitched as well as his first-glance numbers indicate. His fielding independent era (FIP) is 3.61 and his strike-outs per 9 (K/9) is a lowly 6.8. He’s done all he can in LoA so he’ll see a promotion to HiA or AA mid to late this season. If he can continue to make adjustments he could see success at later levels. His ceiling remains a good #2 starter but it’s unlikely he will reach that.
Starting Pitcher #4: Nick Tropeano (RHP). A 5th round pick last year and a revelation this year in his first full season of pro ball, Tropeano has attracted plenty of attention for his work in Lexington. John Sickels gave him honorable mention status in his most recent Top 120 prospect list. The scouting report on Tropeano was a polished college arm with a mediocre fastball. He was expected to rise quickly through the system but top out at a back-of-the-rotation (BOR) starter like Dallas Keuchel. His record this season is 7-4 with a 2.55 era and 10k/9in in 95.1 innings between LoA Lexington and HiA Lancaster. His first start in HiA produced the highest game score in the Astros system this year: Dominance. What’s very exciting is that current scouting reports say his fastball touches 96mph in games now. Combine that with his best-in-college-baseball changeup and he potentially has two plus pitches. I’d say his current ceiling is a solid middle-of-rotation (MOR) starter, but if he continues to add mph to his fastball and refine his secondary pitches that could change. He’s a candidate for AA next season.
Starting Pitcher #5: Paul Clemens (RHP) This was my toughest selection; the gap between him and those behind him is minimal at best. Acquired in the Michael Bourn trade last season, Clemens probably has the best repertoire of pitches left. He features a 4-seam fastball that averages 93-96mph and is stated to have a solid curve and slider. His minor league record was above-average in stops in HiA and AA ball but has completely hit a wall in AAA. He currently has an 8-7 record in AAA with a 6.42 era and a 6.0 K/9 ratio. He’s also been prone to the HR this year, giving up 13 homers in 17 starts. With three solid pitches, his ceiling is a MOR pitcher. David Coleman of the Crawfishboxes likens him to Bud Norris. Unfortunately, he seems slated to a BotB career. He could see relief work in Houston next year.
*I hate the overuse of the ‘ace’ moniker in prospect listings. Ace is very specific guy who you’d be scared to see in the playoffs. A badass. There’s maybe 15 of them in league. A top-of-the-rotation guy is someone you see comfortably as your #1 pitcher. Often times the line between a lesser #1 and a strong #2 is indistinguishable.