View Full Version : Realistically - What Record for the PlayOffs?
11-30-1999, 09:36 AM
I just don't See anyone below .500 making to the playoffs. So what do you think? Once we get establish this he can look to see what we have to win from here out.
11-30-1999, 09:42 AM
I believe we can reach .500 before the all-star break. If things go smooth, we can even out by the end of December.
Say I'm a cheerleader! http://bbs.clutchcity.net/ubb/wink.gif
tod the bod
11-30-1999, 09:54 AM
Sorry guys. Its going to take 48-50 wins to make the playoffs from the Western Conference this year. I just don't think that the Rockets have it in them, despite last night's miraculous win.
11-30-1999, 09:57 AM
I think more realistically it may be 45 wins. I think 48-50 wins is too high. I think the east may be a bit stronger than anyone suspects , and it may only take a .500 record there.
11-30-1999, 10:20 AM
48 wins to make the playoffs?
An eighth seed with a 48-34 record?
Oh my God, I want some of that. Let's bet.
11-30-1999, 11:06 AM
I know its a little early but here are the current top 8 teams in the Western Conference:
Sacramento .... 9 2 .818
Portland ...... 13 3 .812
San Antonio ... 12 3 .800
Seattle ....... 11 3 .786
L.A. Lakers ... 10 4 .714
Phoenix ....... 9 4 .692
Utah .......... 8 6 .571
Minnesota ..... 6 5 .545
These eight teams have to be considered the favorites for the playoffs with Minnesota being the dark horse. For the Rockets to beat out two of these nine teams seems to be a very tall order.
BTW, projecting the .571 winning percentage out to 82 games yeilds a 47-35 record.
[This message has been edited by No Worries (edited November 30, 1999).]
11-30-1999, 11:18 AM
Hey, I wasn't kidding. Let's bet on this. Make a gentlemanly wager, say.
If the 8th seed in the Western Conference this year has a 48-34 record this year, yours truly will give up beer for one week.
No, tell you what, I'll be charitable. If the 8th seed can manage a 47-35 record, I'll perform a mini-Lent from June 12th through June 19th.
OK, who's up for a wager? http://bbs.clutchcity.net/ubb/wink.gif
11-30-1999, 11:35 AM
I think things are getting better and we should turn this thing aroung during December. Hopefully start the new year at .500 or so and then continue towards a 45-50 win season and a 5-8 seed in the west. The west is highly competitive, but no one is dominant. Don't count out what Chuck and Dream are capable of in money situations.
11-30-1999, 12:13 PM
What were the records of the 7th and 8th seeds in the 98 and 97 seasons for the Western Conference?
-Peace to the Believers
tod the bod
11-30-1999, 12:27 PM
Brian: Typically I would agree with you that there is no way than an eighth seed would have 48 wins. But there is something strange in the state of Denmark (and in the Western Conference) this year. There are eight or nine teams that are really good, and the rest of the teams in the conference are pretty lousy (and I am including the Rockets in the latter bunch). 47 wins is only six wins better than a .500 record. Which of the top eight teams in the conference do you not think are going to beat that record.
I'll take your bet at 47 wins. And if you win, I promise to write a credible post on why Rudy T. is the greatest coach of all time -- which will be far more painful for me than your giving up beer for a week.
11-30-1999, 12:28 PM
1997-98: 8th seed was, of course, Houston. The Rockets were 41-41 that year.
1996-97: 8th was the Los Angeles Clippers, who went 36-46.
C'mon, somebody bet me.
I am editing this to include my reply to Tod's last post.
TTB: I agree that the West is even deeper than it has been for the latter part of the 1990s. However, I think what you'll see as a result of that is greater balance in the distribution of wins.
That's normally how it works; the greater number of excellent teams there are in a division/conference/league, the more balanced the W-L records tend to be.
I accept your wager. I look forward to reading your laudatory appraisal of the great Rudy T. http://bbs.clutchcity.net/ubb/smile.gif
[This message has been edited by BrianKagy (edited November 30, 1999).]
11-30-1999, 02:58 PM
I feel much better now. Thinking that Portland, Seattle, Sacremento and the Lakers will be splitting games amongst each other. BUT we have to handle San An, Pheonix and Minesota. [We need to Split with these teams and . . ] Not to mention the Nuggets [3 wins - 1 lose to them] .
Is this reasonable?
I think this team can get 48~50 wins. . . .
MY CONFIDENCE IS BRIMMING NOW!!!!
11-30-1999, 03:53 PM
What normally happens as the season progresses is that
1) Teams become more familiar with one another, so the competition tightens up. This means that more losses get distributed evenly between the good and bad teams.
2) Your conference games begin to weigh more heavily on your record because they begin to significantly outnumber your non-conference games. And in every conference game you have one winner and one loser. That tends to even out the records of the entire group and cause an even distribution of wins and losses. (Bell curve type thing)
3)Injuries. They reshape the season for one or two teams every year. This will drop the number of wins they would have been expected to get.
Expansion can be a factor, but not this year.
So, We can make the playoffs with a slightly above .500 record. It always works out that way in the end.
[This message has been edited by PhiSlammaJamma (edited November 30, 1999).]
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