How many "money" players are there in the draft?

[haven]

By money players, I mean that you have a good chance of drafting a viable starting NBA player with this pick. I was looking at the people who have declared, and was hoping I'd find 13 of them to guarantee Houston one. Unfortunately, I only count 10.

My "money player" list for this draft. I'm not overly concerned with order, here:

1. Eddie Griffin
2. Kwame Brown
3. Eddie Curry
4. Tyson Chandler
5. Shane Battier
6. Pao Gasol
7. Rodney White
8. Jason Richardson
9. DeSagana Diop
10. Vladimir Radmanovic (dicey, but he seems to be the complete package by report)

I'm hoping that other players serve as filler to buoy one of these guys to the #13. Other guys exist who *might* be decent - Troy Murphy, Richard Jefferson, Loren Woods come to mind.



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Lacking inspiration at the moment...

[TeXaSalsa]

all 4 of the high school players are risks.. brown at least should turn out to be good. curry n diop n chandler are not money players in my book though.

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--TEX

[Greg#3]

Joe Johnson is a $$$$ player.

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President of the (the Rockets first pick in the draft) fan club.

[RocketFan007]

Joe Johnson is definitely a money player.

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[Ren Cooper]

Depending on who gets him Tinsley could start.If its the Celtics,which I think it will be I would go ahead and put him on the list.

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AKA Rendiggler

[PinetreeFM60]

Simple math suggests that only about 10 players in each draft will become players who get 10 years in the NBA and are of starter quality. And only half of those will be close to starter quality the first year.

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Some days you eat the bear. Some days the bear eats you.

[Moe]

A couple of things. When you say starters, do you mean this year or within a couple of years?

You didn't include guards like Tinsley and Cook whom I think will start for somebody. (The Rockets just don't have this need.) I think Joe Johnson, Loren Woods and Troy Murphy belong in your group also.

Despite his lack of real height, I think Forte will start somewhere down the road.

You can't apply simple math to any given draft year. Some years are better than others. It would be a real shock if this year doesn't yield many more starters than last years draft.

I think this draft is so deep, that there will be some second rounders that will eventually start. Maybe someone like Calvin Bowman, Tarvis Williams, Damone Brown, Ben Eze (sp.?) Jerryl Sasser, etc. I know these are not sure things, just a side comment.

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[This message has been edited by Moe (edited June 21, 2001).]

[heypartner]

Haven,

Historically, that is too many. There are barely 5 career starters per draft, much less $$$$ players (ie stars).

I curious: Take a look at 1997 and tell me how many money players came from that draft.

[haven]

heypartner:

Perhaps I should say, "players who I would draft with the *expectation* of them eventually starting. I think that everyone on that list will be drafted with the expectation of them starting. As others have mentioned, Joe Johnson has a good chance as well (should have mentioned him).

Besides, there are 29 teams in the NBA, making for 145 starting players. There have to be more than 5 starting players from every draft... there aren't *that* many undrafted starters. I know there are many interim starter... but I'd even count them, if they play substantially and make meaningful contributions.

Moe: In a couple of years... don't expect Tyson Chandler to do much quite yet http://bbs.clutchcity.net/ubb/wink.gif.

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Lacking inspiration at the moment...

[heypartner]

haven,

I said "career starters". There are not 145 career starters in the NBA. See what I mean. Most everyone else is largely considered a spot starter or early career starter or flat-out bust/role player. Here is how I try to quantify players:

Superstars (1 or 2 per year) can beat a double team, Hall of Fame
Stars (2-4 per year) can beat single coverage easily, All-Star
Career Starters (2-4 per year aside from the other categories) a Joe Smith type or a Star until the league figures him out Larry Johnson
Situational Starters/Role Players (Laettner)
Busts (Tractor Traylor)

of course factoring in injuries like Anferee, Billy Owens, Manning, my simplistic quantification gets muddy.

It seems like the further in the '90s you go back the more this holds true. 1992 was a great draft. The new drafts like 1999 look great (about 10 career starters, but the verdict is not in yet).

I guess I am showing 5-10 career starters. So, looks like I do agree with you. Which would be 50-100 ten-yr starters, or about half the league's starters on average for any given year.

btw: I am not looking to debate this. I am just amazed by how many sure things don't pan out, and like to try to quantify it.

[haven]

heypartner:

Me too. That's why I dislike so many of the threads in the main forum, along the lines of Wally Z for the #13 and #23!

It wouldn't bother me if only newbies were saying these things. But the thread about trading Cat for a top 5 pick... people just seem to take it for granted that ANY pick in the top 5 is going to be a star, and that's not true at al.

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Lacking inspiration at the moment...