The "weak draft" fallacy

[Will]

Those of you who have taken any economics know about the law of supply and demand. When a draft is declared "weak," that assessment is generally made in comparison to the drafts before and after it. This discrepancy means, for example, that if you're an underclassman, there may be 10 players better than you in next year's draft, but there may be only 5 players better than you in this year's draft. And of course, you'd rather be pick #6 than pick #11. So you have an incentive to declare this year.

On the other hand, if you declare right away for this year's draft, you don't know many of those 10 next-year guys who are better than you will declare as well -- which would shove you right back down to pick #11 and defeat the whole purpose of your early declaration.

In short, the system creates two incentives for top college players: 1) to move from strong drafts into weak ones by declaring early, and 2) to postpone this declaration until the last possible moment.

All of which means that this year's draft won't be nearly as weak as expected.

[JuanValdez]

Good point. Every year, people say the draft is weak. I think your explanation accounts for part of that. The other part is that it is safer to trash something good than to praise something bad. If you say the draft is weak and it turns out to be pretty good (like last season), you can say they 'surprised.' If you predict it will be good and it turns out to be bad, it isn't the class that 'disappointed,' it is the prognosticator.

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[LHutz]

DUKE knows about the law of supplies and demands!!!! I KNOW LOTS OF LAWS, but this is one I am intimate with!!!!

DUKE used this law to get extra respeckt last year!!!! I went to the BOSSES office and pounded on the secretary (well, her desk any way) and DUKE said "DUKE DEMANDS MORE SUPPLIES!!!! GIVE ME!"

You know what happened next!

Huh?

Right!

I AM THE DUKE OF SUPPLIES!!! PAPER CLIPS! Pencils! Sharpers! Mice Pads! PAPER CLIPS! Rubby bands!!! DUKE HAS IT ALL!!!

PS Let me know if you need some stuff Will, DUKE can hook you up cheep!

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A HOUSE is not a HOME if it is ON FIRE.

[TeXaSalsa]

I agree. im tired of hearing about the "weak draft". there isnt going to be 19 franchise players every year. drafts are for role players and this one has many. this draft likley has 2-5 franchise players at most.

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--TEX

[DaneB]

I agree that this draft is not going to be weak, but I'm not too sure if there will be any franschise players coming out.

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The clock is winding down, and Scottie has the ball, Cato is sprinting towards him, Pippen shoots and here comes Cato. Man did you see that block?!!! Ouch it hit Scottie right between the legs. ITS FINAL!! THE ROCKETS ARE THE CHAMPIONS OF Y2K!!!

[Ottomaton]

[QUOTE]Originally posted by Will:
[B]Those of you who have taken any economics know about the law of supply and demand.

Those of us who have taken economics also know that economic models rarely work as well in the real world as they do in the classroom. For supply and demand to reign supreme in this case you assume many things.

Most importantly, you assume that every potential NBA player is both as logical and lucid as you, a large leap to say the least. Next, one must assume that every player's primary concern is their own ability relative to all others as it is seen through the eyes of NBA scouts. The list continues, you fill in the rest.

In my opinion, citing supply and demand in this case is like saying if I jump off of the top of my house, the ionic charge on the bottom of my shoes will overwhelm gravity, preventing me from smashing into the ground and breaking my leg. Supply and demand may exert some force, but not enough to measure.

It seems to me that every draft is clasified as weak because players are evaluated in relation to current NBA players, and most draftees require a significant amount of development before they are ready to play.

I am worried about the quality of the draft this year because a number of the players who I had assumed would be significant from this draft have turned out to be deficient in some way or another. For instance, guys like Desmond Mason and Pete Mickeal being shorter than I had assumed.

That having been said, as far as I'm concerned, that which seperates the good drafts from the bad are internal things, like personality, willingness to develop in the offseason, aggressiveness, and other intangable attributes. Unfortunately, the only way this is measured is empirically through hindsight, which is not much use leading up to the draft.

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