November 3rd, 2009

[basso]

the most fascinating race is NY-23. IMO, the best thing that could happen to the body politic this season, is for Doug Hoffman (http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/politics/Four-races-test-the-strength-of-Obama_s-majority-8446593-66617807.html) to prevail. It was shake up the republican party (a good thing) and sound a cautionary note for the obama admin.

...and Batman would faint.

Four races test the strength of Obama's majority

By: Michael Barone
Senior Political Analyst
October 28, 2009


Bob McDonnell
Six days from now the voters of New Jersey and Virginia will elect governors. Voters in the 23rd district of New York and the 10th district of California will elect new members of the House of Representatives to replace incumbents, a Republican and a Democrat, who were appointed to positions in the Obama Defense and State departments.

All four of these constituencies voted for Barack Obama 51 weeks ago. Obama won 57 percent of the vote in New Jersey, 53 percent (his national average) in Virginia, 52 percent in New York 23 and 65 percent in California 10.

Yet all of this territory was once Republican. Suburb-dominated New Jersey voted 56 percent for George H.W. Bush in 1988. Southern-accented Virginia hadn't voted for a Democratic presidential candidate since 1964. The last time the territory covered by New York 23 elected a Democratic congressman was in 1870. And the incumbent who is being replaced in California 10 won her seat by beating a Republican in 1996.

In other words, the 2009 contests are a reasonably fair test of the strength and durability of the Democratic majority that Obama and his ticketmates assembled in 2008, a majority that was only made possible by gains in hitherto Republican territory. It is also a test of the capacity of Republicans to regain turf they have lost.

Yes, the character of the individual candidates and local issues can make a difference. But the basic issues in these four contests are reasonably congruent with the national issues now being debated in Congress and debated this summer in town halls across the nation.

The result in Virginia is not much in doubt. Republican Bob McDonnell has campaigned on transportation, education and taxes and holds a wide lead in polls. Democrat Creigh Deeds, though from a rural area, opted not to follow the rural strategy that elected Democrat Mark Warner governor in 2001 and senator in 2008, but instead sought to use cultural issues -- a 20-year-ago graduate school thesis of McDonnell's helpfully unearthed by The Washington Post -- to capture the big majorities Democrats won in the Northern Virginia suburbs of Washington in 2005, 2006 and 2008.

It hasn't worked. No one believes that a McDonnell victory will result in women being expelled from their workplaces and sent back to their ironing boards. Bigger things -- the size and scope of government -- are at stake this year.

In New Jersey things are murkier. Democratic Gov. Jon Corzine's approval numbers are stuck around 40 percent, but he has used his wealth to pummel Republican Chris Christie with negative ads and hopes that Independent Chris Daggett will steal anti-Corzine votes from the Republican. If Corzine wins because he is perceived to be the lesser of three evils, it will hardly be an endorsement of Democratic policies.

The situation in New York 23 is simply bizarre. Local Republican leaders nominated an assemblywoman who has been endorsed by the ACORN-allied Working Families party and who backs the unions' card check bill. One of the Republicans passed over was nominated by the Conservative party and has picked up endorsements from Sarah Palin and Tim Pawlenty. He has raised money on the Internet and from the anti-tax Club for Growth. He's now leading in two polls commissioned by his supporters.

All of which highlights, in exaggerated form, the distrust of tea party protesters for Republican insiders and could result in a plurality for the Democrat. As William Galston points out in his New Republic blog, during Obama's presidency voters have been growing more conservative but remain disdainful of Republicans.

The California 10 results will come in last, and just about everyone will be astonished if the Democrat, Lt. Gov. John Garamendi, doesn't win in this San Francisco Bay area district. But many things are possible in special elections.

Both parties will try to spin the results seven days from now. But one thing seems clear. None of the Democrats seems likely to equal Barack Obama's 2008 percentages in these states or districts. None may even come close. But Republicans may find it difficult to convert the increasing unease with Democratic policies into Republican (or Conservative) victories across the board.


Michael Barone, The Examiner's senior political analyst, can be contacted at mbarone@washingtonexaminer.com. His columns appear Wednesday and Sunday, and his stories and blog posts appear on ExaminerPolitics.com.

[mc mark]

the most fascinating race is NY-23. IMO, the best thing that could happen to the body politic this season, is for Doug Hoffman (http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/politics/Four-races-test-the-strength-of-Obama_s-majority-8446593-66617807.html) to prevail. It was shake up the republican party (a good thing) and sound a cautionary note for the obama admin.



and the democrat will laugh all the way to the win!

[SamFisher]

if Corzine, who has pretty much everything working against him - budget cuts/high tax state/incumbent/former Chairman of the root of all evil, Goldman Sachs - manages to win, the GOP might as well stop fielding candidates north of Richmond, VA because there is truly no hope.

[MojoMan]

the most fascinating race is NY-23. IMO, the best thing that could happen to the body politic this season, is for Doug Hoffman (http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/politics/Four-races-test-the-strength-of-Obama_s-majority-8446593-66617807.html) to prevail. It was shake up the republican party (a good thing) and sound a cautionary note for the obama admin.

Exactly right.

These are three fascinating races, each with a story to tell. My, how times have changed since last November when Barack Obama was elected president.

I agree that the most interesting of the group is NY-23. This has been a Republican seat since 1871, so the biggest upset that could happen here would be the Democrat winning. Hoffman is actually a Republican, but he was not annointed by the back-room Republican power brokers, so he decided to run as an independent against the left leaning Scozzafava.

In the most recent polls, Hoffman's is leading that race, the Democrat is running second and the Republican, Dede Scozzafava, is running third.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2009/house/ny/new_york_23rd_district_special_election-1119.html

This is a dramatic turnaround from even one week ago. After Sarah Palin flew in and endorsed Hoffman over Scozzafavaendorsed Hoffman over Scozzafava (http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1009/28641.html), the race was completely transformed. The Republican party has been put on notice with the events that have occurred here in this race.

[MojoMan]

The most shocking and unexpected outcome may actually be shaping up in New Jersey. This is a deep blue state that supported Obama by a large margin. However, Corzine has no accomplishments to speak of, and his administration has established a solid reputation for corruption with New Jersey voters.

There is an independent candidate in this race as well, Chris Daggett, who has no real chance to win, but could be a spoiler. Most pundits seem to think that Daggett will siphon off votes from Christie more than Corzine. This has been communicated to the electorate over the last week or two, and Daggett support has started to erode accordingly.

Right now, the race is basically a tie between Corzine and Christie:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2009/governor/nj/new_jersey_governor_corzine_vs_christie-1051.html

The polls apparently vary because of uncertainty regarding how Daggett supporters will actually vote come election day.

But if Christie hangs on and beats out Corzine in New Jersey, that will be a shocker. Losing a governors race in a solid blue state like New Jersey will send a loud and clear message not only to Barack Obama and the Democratic Party, but also to blue dog Democrats who are being pressured to vote for pending legislation such as health care reform, and cap and trade. If Corzine loses this race, that will provide an especially strong jolt to blue dogs who serve conservative leaning districts, and it could certainly affect how they vote on these currently pending issues.

[SamFisher]

^ did you copy and paste this directly from the "magananimo" blog? Can you un-password protect it so we can see? TIA.

[Major]

This has been communicated to the electorate over the last week or two, and Daggett support has started to erode accordingly.

Weird:

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Losing a governors race in a solid blue state like New Jersey will send a loud and clear message not only to Barack Obama and the Democratic Party, but also to blue dog Democrats who are being pressured to vote for pending legislation such as health care reform, and cap and trade.

That's an interesting analysis, given this:


However, Corzine has no accomplishments to speak of, and his administration has established a solid reputation for corruption with New Jersey voters.

I fail to see how a corrupt governor with no accomplishments and a mess of a state losing would reflect on Obama and the Dem Party.

[basso]

The most shocking and unexpected outcome may actually be shaping up in New Jersey. This is a deep blue state that supported Obama by a large margin. However, Corzine has no accomplishments to speak of, and his administration has established a solid reputation for corruption with New Jersey voters.

There is an independent candidate in this race as well, Chris Daggett, who has no real chance to win, but could be a spoiler. Most pundits seem to think that Daggett will siphon off votes from Christie more than Corzine. This has been communicated to the electorate over the last week or two, and Daggett support has started to erode accordingly.

Right now, the race is basically a tie between Corzine and Christie:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2009/governor/nj/new_jersey_governor_corzine_vs_christie-1051.html

The polls apparently vary because of uncertainty regarding how Daggett supporters will actually vote come election day.

But if Christie hangs on and beats out Corzine in New Jersey, that will be a shocker. Losing a governors race in a solid blue state like New Jersey will send a loud and clear message not only to Barack Obama and the Democratic Party, but also to blue dog Democrats who are being pressured to vote for pending legislation such as health care reform, and cap and trade. If Corzine loses this race, that will provide an especially strong jolt to blue dogs who serve conservative leaning districts, and it could certainly affect how they vote on these currently pending issues.

it's all about the money- Corzine has spent Bloombergian sums to win this race, and money may out, but rassmussen's numbers this morning have Christie up 3, but w/in the margin of error.

[mc mark]

But if Christie hangs on and beats out Corzine in New Jersey, that will be a shocker. Losing a governors race in a solid blue state like New Jersey will send a loud and clear message not only to Barack Obama and the Democratic Party, but also to blue dog Democrats who are being pressured to vote for pending legislation such as health care reform, and cap and trade. If Corzine loses this race, that will provide an especially strong jolt to blue dogs who serve conservative leaning districts, and it could certainly affect how they vote on these currently pending issues.


You really haven't been paying attention. Christie has been leading Corzine since the beginning of the election. Corzine has come back in the last few weeks and has now taken a slight lead.

[basso]

You really haven't been paying attention. Christie has been leading Corzine since the beginning of the election. Corzine has come back in the last few weeks and has now taken a slight lead.

careful when you accuse someone of not paying attention- you may just end up with some auto-pwnage (http://jammiewearingfool.blogspot.com/2009/10/rasmussen-christie-up-46-43-in-nj.html)

With just a week to go in New Jersey’s closely contested race for governor, Republican Chris Christie holds a three-point advantage over incumbent Democratic Governor Jon Corzine.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in New Jersey show Christie with 46% of the vote and Corzine with 43%. While the margin is little changed from a week ago and the week before, the biggest news may be that support for independent candidate Chris Daggett has dropped four points to seven percent (7%). The number of undecided voters is down to four percent (4%).

The decline in support for Daggett comes in a week when several state newspapers endorsed Christie or Corzine, but none followed The (Newark) Star-Ledger’s lead and came out in favor of the independent candidate. Additionally, Christie began a new ad campaign linking Corzine and Daggett.

Christie leads by eight points among those who are certain they will show up and vote. A week ago, he was up by five among that group. Christie’s supporters are also less likely to say they might consider voting for someone else.

Corzine does better among voters who might not make it to the polls. That's one reason President Obama, former President Bill Clinton and other Democratic Party luminaries are spending time in the Garden State in hopes of encouraging turnout.

[Major]

careful when you accuse someone of not paying attention- you may just end up with some auto-pwnage (http://jammiewearingfool.blogspot.com/2009/10/rasmussen-christie-up-46-43-in-nj.html)


Why would you select one particular poll when there are plenty of others? Another one from Quinnipiac came out on the same day as your Rasmussen one showing Corzine +5. Do you have any reason to trust one over the other? I even posted the full trend lines tallying all the polls.

It wouldn't be because you're trying to manipulate the data to show whatever you want, would it?

[basso]

Why would you select one particular poll when there are plenty of others? Another one from Quinnipiac came out on the same day as your Rasmussen one showing Corzine +5. Do you have any reason to trust one over the other? I even posted the full trend lines tallying all the polls.

It wouldn't be because you're trying to manipulate the data to show whatever you want, would it?

unless NJ voters are even bigger idiots than their recent history would suggest (possible!) i doubt my post, skewed or not, will influence the outcome significantly.

[mc mark]

It wouldn't be because you're trying to manipulate the data to show whatever you want, would it?


ding ding dig We have a winner!

[Major]

unless NJ voters are even bigger idiots than their recent history would suggest (possible!) i doubt my post, skewed or not, will influence the outcome significantly.

I was referring to you posting on the BBS. You attempted "ownage" based on distorted "facts" when there was much more reliable data readily available and posted in this very thread.

[SamFisher]

i doubt my post, skewed or not, will influence the outcome significantly.
Of course it won't, but you don't believe that. As we have established, you take your posting here VRY SRSLY indeed.

[basso]

I was referring to you posting on the BBS. You attempted "ownage" based on distorted "facts" when there was much more reliable data readily available and posted in this very thread.

quinnipac is "much more reliable" than rassumussen? or you're just claiming it is because it supports your (skewed) viewpoint?

hmmmmmmage....

[SamFisher]

quinnipac is "much more reliable" than rassumussen? or you're just claiming it is because it supports your (skewed) viewpoint?

hmmmmmmage....

Do you see that big shiny graphic there in the middle of the page old man? That ain't quinnipiac.

[MojoMan]

Here is a link to an average of the polls for the New Jersey Governor's race, including links to the actual polling data for each poll, in case anyone is interested:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2009/governor/nj/new_jersey_governor_corzine_vs_christie-1051.html

[A_3PO]

If the Dems don't win, they want Hoffman to prevail in NY-23.

[mc mark]

If the Dems don't win, they want Hoffman to prevail in NY-23.


It really is fun watching the republicans eat their own.

[Batman Jones]

the most fascinating race is NY-23. IMO, the best thing that could happen to the body politic this season, is for Doug Hoffman (http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/politics/Four-races-test-the-strength-of-Obama_s-majority-8446593-66617807.html) to prevail. It was shake up the republican party (a good thing) and sound a cautionary note for the obama admin.

...and Batman would faint.

I would love for Hoffman to win. It would send the GOP further down the crank nutjob road they seem so committed to these days. Bring that **** on. As long as they don't actually manage to kill the president, stuff like Doug Hoffman is just good news for Democrats.

[MojoMan]

I would love for Hoffman to win. It would send the GOP further down the crank nutjob road they seem so committed to these days. Bring that **** on. As long as they don't actually manage to kill the president, stuff like Doug Hoffman is just good news for Democrats.

If the latest polls are any indication, you are going to get your wish.

I am hoping Hoffman wins too, but my analysis of the situation is quite a bit different from yours.

[FranchiseBlade]

Yeah, the GOP made a huge mess of what once was a surefire district. That Hoffman even stands a chance there is absolutely hilarious.

A win for the crazies like Hoffman would provide more fodder for jokes, and just illustrate the problems the GOP is having right now.

[MojoMan]

Yeah, the GOP made a huge mess of what once was a surefire district. That Hoffman even stands a chance there is absolutely hilarious.

A win for the crazies like Hoffman would provide more fodder for jokes, and just illustrate the problems the GOP is having right now.

I largely agree with that. Of course the crazy comment is just partisan name calling, but the I am on board with the rest of what you said.

The local Republican leaders made a bad, back-room decision by nominating a liberal, at least in Republican terms, to run as the party candidate for this seat. This is a conservative district. It has been held by a Republicans since 1871. That is not a typo. I did not mean to type 1971. Since 1871 this district has been Republican. The Republican party made a mistake in nominating this candidate.

What is really amazing to me is the effect that Sarah Palin's endorsement of Hoffman had on this race. I know you lefties do not like Palin, but let's try to have a rational look at this for a moment if we can. Palin endorsed Hoffman last Wednesday or Thursday. Before her endorsement, Hoffman was in third place in this race. By the end of the weekend, he was clearly in the lead. Can anyone remember a time when an endorsement carried that much effect? Wow. Even if you do not like Palin or her politics, her political muscle was on clear display in this district this week.

The events that have occurred in this race are a problem for the Republican party, as you suggested. They are apparently still under the illusion that they are in control and calling the shots regarding who will be supported by Republican voters. As far as I can tell, most conservatives do not identify themselves closely with the Republican party anymore. I sure don't. Conservatives certainly do not look to the Republican party for direction regarding who to vote for. And their nomination of Dede Scozzafava as the Republican candidate in this race has made that problem more accute. And if Hoffman wins, as he appears poised to do, conservatives are going to push hard in support of other such candidates, regardless of what the so-called leaders of this group think.

The Republican party did indeed screw things up for themselves badly with their choices in this contest.

[basso]

what is it with NJ dems (http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=ZTg3YTE5Yjk1Y2Q2NDZiMjQ2ODc1MjY4YmRiYWUyMjQ=) and changing the rules, when the outcome doesn't go (or appear likely to go) their way?

Democrats Ask New Jersey Secretary of State to Ignore Mismatched Signatures on Absentee Ballot Requests

This year, New Jersey’s registered voters can request a mail-in ballot for any reason. Before 2005, voters needed to provide a reason for why they needed an absentee ballot. The state received about 150,000 absentee ballot applications this year.

On about 2,300 of those applications so far, the signature on the request form did not match the signature on the voter’s registration forms with the state.

In a development that is depressingly predictable, the New Jersey Democratic Party is asking the state to provide provisional ballots for all these voters. Those ballots, could, presumably, be used to overcome any narrow lead by Republican Chris Christie over Democrat Jon Corzine on Election Day.

A mass distribution of provisional ballots, at the request of a political party, would represent a significant change from established law. Currently, when a county clerk rejects an absentee ballot request, they try to contact the voter, through mail, by phone, and in some cases, they make an attempt to contact the voter in person. And a person who has spoken to some of New Jersey’s county clerks says they’re granting wide latitude on signature styles; for them to reject a ballot request because of the signature, it has to be dramatically different from the one on file.

Could some of these cases be the circumstance an election official misjudging natural deviation in two handwriting samples from the same person? Certainly, and that's why the current system has clerks reaching out to the rejected voters (presuming they actually exist) to sort out the discrepancy. But Democrats want to short-circuit the established methods of sorting out the problem, and in fact ban rejections based on signature mismatches entirely.

Paul P. Josephson, a lawyer representing the New Jersey Democratic State Committee, wrote to Secretary of State Nina Mitchell Wells, asking her to “instruct County Clerks not to deny (vote by mail) applications on the basis of signature comparison alone.”

Josephson claims “the data reveal a troubling disparity in rejection rates - from hundreds of applications in Atlantic (271 rejections, or 5.84 percent) and Hudson (362, or 4.13 percent) to just a handful in counties such as Hunterdon (6, or .20 percent) and Mercer (35, or .49 percent). We also note that staff and unaffiliated voters are being rejected at a far higher ratio than Republicans by a ratio of three-to-one.” But a source who has seen the data disagrees, contending the number of rejections are consistently proportional to the number of absentee ballots requested. This source described the rate of rejections as within a normal range, and he saw no clustering in particular regions.

Josephson contends, “even if the county clerks notify voters by mail that their applications have been rejected, too many of those voters will not have an opportunity to correct the situation.” But besides the County Clerks’ efforts to contact voters laid out above, those who have not received an absentee ballot will still be able to vote on Election Day.

Democrats have never made this request before, not even in 2008, where many more New Jersey residents were voting through absentee ballots. Of course, that year Democrats Barack Obama and Frank Lautenberg were expected to win the statewide races handily.

Last year, the state party had no objections to the actions of county clerks; now, the party's counsel fears that the county clerk staff “may be overworked and are likely not trained in handwriting analysis.” Strangely, these same county clerk staffers managed to handle this year’s primary elections in New Jersey without any major complaints.

The fears of absentee ballot fraud in New Jersey is not theoretical or far-fetched. Earlier this year, Atlantic City Councilman Marty Small and 13 people who worked on his unsuccessful mayoral campaign “were indicted on charges they conspired to commit election fraud during the June Democratic primary through a variety of schemes involving messenger absentee ballots, state Attorney General Anne Milgram announced in Trenton.” One of those workers has already pled guilty. Five workers were indicted on similar charges in Essex County in August.

Suspicious minds see the letter as an attempt to create a pool of emergency votes to be used if Christie holds a small lead on Election Night. The Secretary of State has not yet responded to the Democrats’ request.

[MojoMan]

what is it with NJ dems (http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=ZTg3YTE5Yjk1Y2Q2NDZiMjQ2ODc1MjY4YmRiYWUyMjQ=) and changing the rules, when the outcome doesn't go (or appear likely to go) their way?

Some people in this country are openly appalled by voter fraud in third world countries, such as what was seen in the recent elections in Afghanistan.

But it is very difficult to maintain any moral authority to be able to criticize this kind of behavior when certain elements in our political system openly engage in this same kind of corrupt behavior.

These people should be ashamed at themselves. I hope Glenn Beck and Fox News shine the spotlights on this disgraceful behavior and draw people's attention to it in a very loud and public way. I suggest Fox News, because as we have seen so many times before, none of the other major MSM organizations are likely to be willing to do it.

[Rocketman95]

what is it with NJ dems (http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=ZTg3YTE5Yjk1Y2Q2NDZiMjQ2ODc1MjY4YmRiYWUyMjQ=) and changing the rules, when the outcome doesn't go (or appear likely to go) their way?

but what if those voters registered with acorn? would your head explode?

[esteban]

Mojoman, I know that you know why the left does not like Palin and try to stick it to her every chance they get, they are afraid of her, she is a direct threat to Obama.

I agree with you about the Republican party, they have not been conservative since the days of Reagan. They're always sending me solicitations in the mail asking for money, I wrote back and asked them: tell me why should I send my hard-earned money to you weasels, do you even know what you and your party stand for anymore? I have not heard back from them since!

[MojoMan]

Mojoman, I know that you know why the left does not like Palin and try to stick it to her every chance they get, they are afraid of her, she is a direct threat to Obama.

I agree with you about the Republican party, they have not been conservative since the days of Reagan. They're always sending me solicitations in the mail asking for money, I wrote back and asked them: tell me why should I send my hard-earned money to you weasels, do you even know what you and your party stand for anymore? I have not heard back from them since!

That is exactly how I feel. Great post.

They are obviously afraid of her. If they were truly confident about the substance of all of their hateful and belittling remarks towards her, they would regard her as completely irrelevant and they would ignore her. But a better description of the attitudes of most of the outspoken left wing pundits towards Sarah Palin would be "obsessed". That is pretty much the opposite of finding her irrelevant.

And the emotional response that she evokes from the left is completely off the charts. I have never seen anyone who evokes such a response from the libs. Not Rush Limbaugh, Dick Cheney, George W. Bush or Karl Rove. No one.

I am curious, how did you know that I know that?

[mc mark]

Mojoman, I know that you know why the left does not like Palin and try to stick it to her every chance they get, they are afraid of her, she is a direct threat to Obama.



priceless

Only if she's in a helicopter with a rifle

[Rocketman95]

And the emotional response that she evokes from the left is completely off the charts. I have never seen anyone who evokes such a response from the libs. Not Rush Limbaugh, Dick Cheney, George W. Bush or Karl Rove. No one.

so what is calling obama hitler, socialist, nazi, baby murder, antichrist, so on and so forth?

[esteban]

That is exactly how I feel. Great post.

They are obviously afraid of her. If they were truly confident about the substance of all of their hateful and belittling remarks towards her, they would regard her as completely irrelevant and they would ignore her. But a better description of the attitudes of most of the outspoken left wing pundits towards Sarah Palin would be "obsessed". That is pretty much the opposite of finding her irrelevant.

And the emotional response that she evokes from the left is completely off the charts. I have never seen anyone who evokes such a response from the libs. Not Rush Limbaugh, Dick Cheney, George W. Bush or Karl Rove. No one.

I am curious, how did you know that I know that?

Easy dude, you got your thinking cap on when you post!

[basso]

so what is calling obama hitler, socialist, nazi, baby murder, antichrist, so on and so forth?

Child's play compared to the bashing Palin has taken.

[esteban]

so what is calling obama hitler, socialist, nazi, baby murder, antichrist, so on and so forth?

Do you pay attention to a nobody when they called you all those names?

[Rocketman95]

Child's play compared to the bashing Palin has taken.

that's hysterical. wtf has she been called worse than a nazi or the anti-christ?

[Rocketman95]

Do you pay attention to a nobody when they called you all those names?

i'm glad you admit that those teabaggers are nobodies.

[basso]

that's hysterical. wtf has she been called worse than a nazi or the anti-christ?

****, among others.

[esteban]

i'm glad you admit that those teabaggers are nobodies.

I'm a teabagger, my wife thinks that I am somebody and that what truly counts! :)

[Rocketman95]

****, among others.

that is not worse. and were there marches by 10s of thousands of liberals that contained signs calling her that? nope.

[Rocketman95]

I'm a teabagger, my wife thinks that I am somebody and that what truly counts! :)

ok, that was funny. :)

[FranchiseBlade]

****, among others.
That's worse?

[MojoMan]

so what is calling obama hitler, socialist, nazi, baby murder, antichrist, so on and so forth?

His preferred domestic agenda does have a significant socialist flavor to it, so I do not think that charge is completely unfounded.

With regards to the other names, who of any note has called Obama any of these things?

[Rocketman95]

His preferred domestic agenda does have a significant socialist flavor to it, so I do not think that charge is completely unfounded.

With regards to the other names, who of any note has called Obama any of these things?

who of any note has called palin anything similar, including ****?

[GladiatoRowdy]

His preferred domestic agenda does have a significant socialist flavor to it, so I do not think that charge is completely unfounded.

With regards to the other names, who of any note has called Obama any of these things?

Glenn Beck has used "socialist" and "racist" to describe Obama.

[MojoMan]

who of any note has called palin anything similar, including ****?

Those were your chosen terms, not mine. I never said anyone called Palin those things.

However, any honest person who has followed the American political scene over the last year and a half is well familiar with the nearly foaming at the mouth, vitriolic attacks against Sarah Palin and her family by leftists everywhere, including I suspect, on this message board. If you want to be taken seriously on this topic, please refrain from responding with any sort of denials of that point.

[Rocketman95]

Those were your chosen terms, not mine. I never said anyone called Palin those things.

However, any honest person who has followed the American political scene over the last year and a half is well familiar with the nearly foaming at the mouth, vitriolic attacks against Sarah Palin and her family by leftists everywhere, including I suspect, on this message board. If you want to be taken seriously on this topic, please refrain from responding with any sort of denials of that point.

which are no different that the foaming at the mouth, vitriolic attacks against obama. except not being as bad. people mainly called her unprepared and stupid. not anything equivalent to nazi or anti-christ. and **** was not my term, but basso's.

[basso]

that is not worse. and were there marches by 10s of thousands of liberals that contained signs calling her that? nope.

were there tens of thousands of signs calling obama the antichrist? nope.

conflation fail. (http://bbs.clutchfans.net/showthread.php?t=176292)

[MojoMan]

Glenn Beck has used "socialist" and "racist" to describe Obama.

I spoke to the use of the word "socialist" in my previous post, so I will not repeat myself on that point.

Personally, I do not believe that Obama is a racist. However, his record on this question is far from squeaky clean. Being a member for 20 years at a church in Chicago lead by a loud mouth racist pastor strains his credentials on this question almost to the breaking point.Also, Obama's handling of the situation with Professor Gates and the Cambridge police department, when he shot his mouth off and called the police stupid when they were just doing their jobs, raises further questions. There have been other questionable incidents as well.

Despite all of that, I think we throw the term racist around in this country far too easily. So, it is my desire to give Obama the benefit of the doubt on this question for the time being.

But whatever standard is considered acceptable for Obama must apply to everyone. There cannot be different standards that are applied to people differently depending on their political ideology. Whatever the strictist standard is will apply to everyone, including Barack Obama.

So, consider yourselves warned. Whatever standard I see you guys here on this board applying to conservatives, I will eagerly apply that same standard to Barack Obama. Watch out, because the days of the double standard are over.

With that in mind, I do not share Glenn Beck's opinion that Obama is a racist. However, based on Obama's history, and the hyper-sensitive standards of racism applied to conservatives, his opinion on this is not entirely unjustified at all.

[ScriboErgoSum]

I'm looking forward to voting for domestic partnerships in Washington State. Of course, it'll be even better when it's full marriage rights.

[Rocketman95]

were there tens of thousands of signs calling obama the antichrist? nope.

conflation fail. (http://bbs.clutchfans.net/showthread.php?t=176292)

did i say there were? reading comprehension fail (the the gazillionth time).

[basso]

did i say there were? reading comprehension fail (the the gazillionth time).

methinks thou knowest not the meaning of the word "conflation."

nor FAIL

[Rocketman95]

methinks thou knowest not the meaning of the word "conflation."

nor FAIL

no, i do, it's just not what i did there. but you would know it best.

but of course, you would know FAIL much better than I would.

[esteban]

I spoke to the use of the word "socialist" in my previous post, so I will not repeat myself on that point.

Personally, I do not believe that Obama is a racist. However, his record on this question is far from squeaky clean. Being a member for 20 years at a church in Chicago lead by a loud mouth racist pastor strains his credentials on this question almost to the breaking point.Also, Obama's handling of the situation with Professor Gates and the Cambridge police department, when he shot his mouth off and called the police stupid when they were just doing their jobs, raises further questions. There have been other questionable incidents as well.

Despite all of that, I think we throw the term racist around in this country far too easily. So, it is my desire to give Obama the benefit of the doubt on this question for the time being.

But whatever standard is considered acceptable for Obama must apply to everyone. There cannot be different standards that are applied to people differently depending on their political ideology. Whatever the strictist standard is will apply to everyone, including Barack Obama.

So, consider yourselves warned. Whatever standard I see you guys here on this board applying to conservatives, I will eagerly apply that same standard to Barack Obama. Watch out, because the days of the double standard are over.

With that in mind, I do not share Glenn Beck's opinion that Obama is a racist. However, based on Obama's history, and the hyper-sensitive standards of racism applied to conservatives, his opinion on this is not entirely unjustified at all.
+1 rep point for you!

[mc mark]

interesting reading from, of course, TPM --

Could NY-23 GOP Candidate Be Siphoning Votes From The Democrat?

With polls showing moderate Republican Dede Scozzafava in third place in the NY-23 special election, behind Democrat Bill Owens and Conservative Party candidate Doug Hoffman, she may have to deal with a label that is not often applied to major-party candidates -- that of the spoiler. But who, exactly, is she spoiling?

Prof. Larry Sabato from the University of Virginia posited an interesting hypothesis to me: That Scozzafava's remaining vote is not a conservative Republican base vote that would go to Hoffman, since voters on the right have already been coalescing around him, but she could actually be drawing more from the moderate Democrat Owens.

"Most people think of that as just a rock solid Republican vote, but who are those people?" Sabato said. "They're people who now know, for the most part, that Scozzafava is a liberal Republican. They get it. And a lot of them are really unhappy with Hoffman, so are they really gonna back Hoffman?"

As this idea goes -- and keep in mind that it's not a solid pronouncement, but simply an interpretation of the data as it stands now -- if the Republican continues to fall, it could end up helping the Democrat in a district that voted 52% for Barack Obama in 2008, and where a majority might find a Democrat preferable to the right-wing Conservative.

http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/2009/10/could-ny-23-gop-candidate-be-siphoning-votes-from-the-democrat.php?ref=fpblg

[mc mark]

more from josh --

For all my fellow NJ-Gov fellow obsessives out there a quick update. Yesterday we had the Quinnipiac poll showing Corzine opening a meaningful lead over Christie -- 43% to 38%. Well we've got three new polls out today. And it's remains a mixed picture, with the upshot pointing to a crazily tight race.

Democracy Corps has Corzine by 5 points. Corzine 43%, Christie 38%. Same as Quinnipiac.

Kos/R2K has Christie ahead by 1 point. Christie 42%, Corzine 41%.

And SurveyUSA has it all tied up at 43%.

There's a lot of polling in this race. And in some ways what is most striking is just how consistent the results have been going back two or three weeks. The trend is definitely toward Corzine. But it's a trend well within the margin of error of the polls themselves. When you add in the big wildcard of how many Daggett voters will break toward one of the major candidates at the last minute, you've got a race that's really hard to predict.

http://www.talkingpointsmemo.com/archives/2009/10/nj-gov_fix.php#more?ref=fpblg

[MojoMan]

more from josh --

For all my fellow NJ-Gov fellow obsessives out there a quick update. Yesterday we had the Quinnipiac poll showing Corzine opening a meaningful lead over Christie -- 43% to 38%. Well we've got three new polls out today. And it's remains a mixed picture, with the upshot pointing to a crazily tight race.

Democracy Corps has Corzine by 5 points. Corzine 43%, Christie 38%. Same as Quinnipiac.

Kos/R2K has Christie ahead by 1 point. Christie 42%, Corzine 41%.

And SurveyUSA has it all tied up at 43%.

There's a lot of polling in this race. And in some ways what is most striking is just how consistent the results have been going back two or three weeks. The trend is definitely toward Corzine. But it's a trend well within the margin of error of the polls themselves. When you add in the big wildcard of how many Daggett voters will break toward one of the major candidates at the last minute, you've got a race that's really hard to predict.

http://www.talkingpointsmemo.com/archives/2009/10/nj-gov_fix.php#more?ref=fpblg

The general feeling is that Daggett voters are more likely to break towards Christie.

Here is the polling average for this race, complete with links to the individuals polls that make up the race:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2009/governor/nj/new_jersey_governor_corzine_vs_christie-1051.html

[basso]

I fail to see how a corrupt governor with no accomplishments and a mess of a state losing would reflect on Obama and the Dem Party.

because Obama has gone all in for Corzine. (http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1009/28872.html)

Nervous W.H. intervened in N.J. race; top Obama adviser now in charge
By: Ben Smith
October 29, 2009 05:09 AM EST

One of President Barack Obama’s key political advisers has become the central strategist in New Jersey Gov. Jon Corzine’s bruising campaign for re-election, a race the White House desperately wants to win to avert the consequences for its own agenda of a Republican winning in a traditionally Democratic state.

The White House was so concerned about Corzine's chances during the summer that Corzine's aides feared the first-term governor was being pressured to step aside for a stronger candidate. Those fears turned out to be groundless, but were part of the reason Corzine hired Joel Benenson, who has helped impose discipline on a struggling campaign and crystallize Corzine’s aggressive attacks on the character of his Republican opponent, former U.S. Attorney Chris Christie.

The race is seen as extremely close, complicated by the presence of a third candidate, Chris Daggett. For the White House, it’s a crucial symbolic prize. With Democrat Creigh Deeds running far behind his Republican rival in Virginia, the New Jersey race – once believed to be hopeless for Corzine – is now seen as the White House’s best bet to make the 2009 election cycle a political wash and to calm the nerves of congressional Democrats approaching the crucial 2010 midterm elections.

Both Obama and Vice President Joseph Biden have campaigned for Corzine in the state, and Obama has cut television and radio ads for the governor. This Sunday, on the final weekend of the campaign, the president is returning to New Jersey for two events to try to pull Corzine over the finish line.

Benenson, the chief pollster in Obama’s 2008 campaign, along with David Plouffe, his former campaign manager, and a handful of others, make up a political inner circle that still meets regularly with White House senior advisor David Axelrod. Just as Bill Clinton once dispatched his political team to take over troubled campaigns from New York to Israel, Benenson’s arrival in New Jersey has stirred perceptions of a White House takeover – something he flatly denied.

“I’m known as a pretty strong New Jersey pollster and all [his hiring] says is that the campaign thought that I could add some value at a time when they felt they needed to make a move,” Berenson said.

Corzine trailed Christie badly in the polls throughout the summer, and according to three aides, began to suspect that the White House was considering pushing him to step aside for another candidate – a tactic the White House unsuccessfully tried against another northeastern Democrat in similar trouble – New York Gov. David Paterson.

Among the other names floated by other New Jersey Democrats as possible replacements were State Senate President Richard Codey and Newark Mayor Corey Booker.

When White House officials, including Axelrod and political director Patrick Gaspard, traveled to New Jersey to express their concern in early August, Corzine argued that his campaign had a plausible strategy to turn the race around.

“We were able to show a path to victory that was credible,” said one Corzine aide, who said the White House officials brought discipline to a feuding campaign.

“It scares you – the White House is going to be sitting at the table, and you’ve got to take that seriously,” the aide said.

Some Corzine aides perceived the visit as a threat. “They were basically sending the message, ‘you should get out of the race,’” said one aide to Corzine, who, in the aide’s opinion, would never have considered dropping out.

Benenson, however, said that was never in the cards, and that White House officials were careful to put those rumors to rest.

“That meeting opened with the White House saying, ‘We’re not here to change this – we want to win this campaign,’” he said.

Later that month, Corzine pushed his main pollster, Mark Mellman, aside, and brought on Benenson, who lives in New Jersey and has worked on many other statewide contests in the state.

The hiring may also have had the intent, and effect, of soothing White House nerves. “They have a very competent team, including Joel Benenson, who we know well. We have confidence in them,” Axelrod said in an email.

Corzine insiders said Benenson gave direction to a campaign that had already embraced the sort of slash-and-burn politics Obama used to decry on the campaign trail. Under his direction, scattershot attacks on Christie gave way to a more coherent narrative.

A Democrat involved in the campaign’s internal discussion said that the central argument against Christie – that he has “one set of rules for himself, another for everybody else” – “came from Joel and the White House.”

The theme emerged most clearly in an ad attacking the overweight Christie with the charge that he was “throwing his weight around.”

Some Corzine advisers see Benenson as a proxy for the White House; one told POLITICO that the White House has effective “veto power” over the campaign, something White House and Corzine campaign officials heatedly rejected.

Corzine’s communications director, Sean Darcy, confirmed elements of the White House role but downplayed its significance.

“We show them our ads before they go up the same way we show county chairs, staff and others,” he said, referring – another aide said – to television ads that have already been sent to stations.

The campaign also shows White House officials its polling, but “they do not provide strategic input,” he said, adding that Corzine had righted his political ship not – as widely thought inside and outside his campaign – through attacks on Christie, but because “the focus [of the campaign] became issue-based.”

“We don't screen ads, we don't construct or review polling, we are not calling the shots in New Jersey,” said Axelrod in his email. “I do check in periodically to see where they think the race is at because we are, of course, interested.”

[basso]

Change: Pataki Endorses Hoffman

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as does GayPatriot (http://www.gaypatriot.net/2009/10/30/doug-hoffman-for-congress/)

Doug Hoffman for Congress
Posted by B. Daniel Blatt at 2:23 am - October 30, 2009.
Filed under: 2009 Elections, Conservative Ideas, Real Reform, Republican Rebuilding
It would be nice if there were more men like the Rudy Giuliani in the Republican Party, strong leaders who are conservative when it counts, fiscal hawks who are tough on crime and strong on national security, yet not beholden to social conservatives on issues of concern to gay people. More often than not, when a Republican candidate is more “liberal” on gay issues than the rest of the caucus, he (or she) is more liberal on many other issues as well, not opposed to higher taxes, less committed to regulatory relief and reform, weaker on national security.

So it is with Dede Scozzafava, the Republican nominee for Congress in the special election to fill the seat of John McHugh, vacated when he was confirmed as Secretary of the Army. Aware that she had a record on gay issues similar to that of the former Mayor of the Big Apple, we at GayPatriot had initially remained silent on the campaign, not joining other conservative bloggers in trumpeting renegade Republican Doug Hoffman who is running on the Conservative line in this election.

That all changed upon learning from the Wall Street Journal’s John Fund that Scozzafava was “the most liberal member of the GOP caucus in the state legislature, scoring a 15% rating on the Conservative Party’s scorecard.” And she’s not just liberal on state issues, she is also liberal on national issues as well, supporting the Democrats’ spendthrift “stimulus” and their “card check” legislation.

At a time with record growth in federal spending, record deficits and an ever-expanding federal government, we cannot afford another spendthrift federal legislator, least of all one who calls herself a Republican. We need to hold the line on federal spending and cut, not expand, government regulation. We could find no convincing evidence that the Republican nominee in NY-23 is committed to that small government conservative agenda.

That is why we at GayPatriot join other “grassroots conservatives” in endorsing Doug Hoffman for Congress in the special election to be held next Tuesday, November 3 in New York State’s 23rd Congressional District. We believe the Conservative candidate will do a better job in standing up to the big spending/big government policies put forward by House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and her Democrats and support a real reform agenda, cutting back on the size of the federal government, reducing the scope of its regulatory authority.

We recognize that Hoffman is not an ideal candidate, but we don’t live in the ideal world. In this election, citizens of upstate New York have three real choices. Considering the broad range issues of concern to us, he is by the best of the three. We encourage all GayPatriot readers living in NY-23 to pull the Conservative Party lever in next Tuesday’s balloting.

[MojoMan]

Change: Pataki Endorses Hoffman

The Conservative Party.

I really like the sound of that.

[mc mark]

The Conservative Party.

I really like the sound of that.


yes, republicans have always been good at sound bites and branding

[basso]

The Conservative Party.

I really like the sound of that.

I prefer the Classical Liberal Party, but I imagine that could get confusing. ;)

[MojoMan]

I prefer the Classical Liberal Party, but I imagine that could get confusing. ;)

I kind of liked Teddy Roosevelt's Bull-Moose party. But unfortunately I do not believe that name is likely to resonate either.

:)

[basso]

I kind of liked Teddy Roosevelt's Bull-Moose party. But unfortunately I do not believe that name is likely to resonate either.

:)

it's perfect for Palin tho!

[MojoMan]

it's perfect for Palin tho!

Hahahah.

:)

Maybe she can resuscitate it!

[GladiatoRowdy]

Except under Palin, it would be the "Let's kill bulls and moose" party.

;)

[kpsta]

Hahahah.

:)

Maybe she can resuscitate it!

The idea of a Palin trying to resuscitate anyone or anything just sounds like a recipe for another pregnancy.

[FranchiseBlade]

Just heard this morning that the GOP candidate pulled out of the race. That is so hilarious.

A crackpot like Hoffman has a good chance to get in, and break the once sure-fire Republican stronghold on the seat. It's more hilarious that he's backed by the completely dishonest, and below average intelligence politicall laughing stock Sarah Palin.

This is definitely one of the greatest races in politics this off year. What a gift the GOP has given the Democrats with this.

[A_3PO]

Just heard this morning that the GOP candidate pulled out of the race. That is so hilarious.

A crackpot like Hoffman has a good chance to get in, and break the once sure-fire Republican stronghold on the seat. It's more hilarious that he's backed by the completely dishonest, and below average intelligence politicall laughing stock Sarah Palin.

This is definitely one of the greatest races in politics this off year. What a gift the GOP has given the Democrats with this.
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/11/01/nyregion/01upstate.html

Just amazing. I actually agree with Newt the Nut's comments on this:

Republicans who supported Ms. Scozzafava warned of the dangers of national figures intruding into local politics.

“I think we are going to get into a very difficult environment around the country if suddenly conservative leaders decide they’re going to anoint people without regard to local primaries and local choices,” said Newt Gingrich, the House speaker who had endorsed Ms. Scozzafava.

It's amazing that right-wing Republicans can't see the damage they are doing to the national party. This is an absolute gift to the Dems no matter who wins next week.

[basso]

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/11/01/nyregion/01upstate.html

Just amazing. I actually agree with Newt the Nut's comments on this:

Republicans who supported Ms. Scozzafava warned of the dangers of national figures intruding into local politics.

“I think we are going to get into a very difficult environment around the country if suddenly conservative leaders decide they’re going to anoint people without regard to local primaries and local choices,” said Newt Gingrich, the House speaker who had endorsed Ms. Scozzafava.

It's amazing that right-wing Republicans can't see the damage they are doing to the national party. This is an absolute gift to the Dems no matter who wins next week.

you're assuming Conservatives have any particular interest in the Republican party. by and large, they don't. the outcome here (not of this particular race) could either e a take over of the Republican party by it's more conservative, libertarian base, or perhaps the beginnings of a real, viable, third party, built from the ground up, again, one more Libertarian than the existing big government Republicans. Either outcome is fine with me.

[A_3PO]

you're assuming Conservatives have any particular interest in the Republican party. by and large, they don't. the outcome here (not of this particular race) could either e a take over of the Republican party by it's more conservative, libertarian base, or perhaps the beginnings of a real, viable, third party, built from the ground up, again, one more Libertarian than the existing big government Republicans. Either outcome is fine with me.
If conservatives don't care about winning national elections, that is their right and privilege. But if the GOP doesn't present a viable alternative to Dems in national elections, it will be bad for the country. If conservatives actually believe nominating a far right-wing candidate for president is a winning formula, they need to stop drinking Kool-Aide.

When it comes to issues, how does this "libertarian base" feel about abortion and gay rights? I didn't know libertarians were anti-abortion and anti gay rights. That's a new one. The fact is, the conservative "base" of the GOP is NOT libertarian.

[FranchiseBlade]

you're assuming Conservatives have any particular interest in the Republican party. by and large, they don't. the outcome here (not of this particular race) could either e a take over of the Republican party by it's more conservative, libertarian base, or perhaps the beginnings of a real, viable, third party, built from the ground up, again, one more Libertarian than the existing big government Republicans. Either outcome is fine with me.
Either outcome is hopeful to the Democrats as well. They would be assured victory after victory. The Democrats would love for either of those outcomes to happen. It's one reason they are so delighted with events in the Hoffman election.

[MojoMan]

you're assuming Conservatives have any particular interest in the Republican party. by and large, they don't. the outcome here (not of this particular race) could either e a take over of the Republican party by it's more conservative, libertarian base, or perhaps the beginnings of a real, viable, third party, built from the ground up, again, one more Libertarian than the existing big government Republicans. Either outcome is fine with me.

Exactly right. I agree 100%.

[Dubious]

I kind of liked Teddy Roosevelt's Bull-Moose party. But unfortunately I do not believe that name is likely to resonate either.



You realize that TR was a progressive, the first American environmentalist and a major anti-capitalist trust buster right?

That's sort of the polar opposite of you and your Palinista.

[MojoMan]

You realize that TR was a progressive, the first American environmentalist and a major anti-capitalist trust buster right?

That's sort of the polar opposite of you and your Palinista.

I regard myself as an environmentalist. I am just not buying into the politically charged AGW theories or any of the other related nonsense.

Teddy Roosevelt was a Republican. Here is some information on him, in case anyone is interested:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Theodore_Roosevelt

Roosevelt was not anti-capitalist. He was a trust buster, which amounted to a campaign against monopolies and oligopolies. The effective functioning of capitalism depends on the forces of competition. Early in the 20th century, certain organizations had developed to the point that the competitive environment of the industries that they operated in had been compromised. Roosevelt took steps to rectify that situation. His efforts were not perfect by any means, but something similar to what he did was necessary. In order to maintain the functioning of the capitalist system, there must be regulation of the financial markets, which includes anti-trust regulation. It is always a challenge to maintain the right balance on this, especially when our government is run by someone who truly does appear to have strong anti-capitalist and anti-business inclinations. However, Teddy Roosevelt was not such a person.

Marxism did not really find a home until the Bolshevik revolution in Russia in 1917. Roosevelt was not a Marxist or a socialist by any stretch of the imagination.

As I think you know, the Bull Moose reference was a joke. It is almost unimaginable that a political party could be named that today.

[mc mark]

Just heard this morning that the GOP candidate pulled out of the race. That is so hilarious.

A crackpot like Hoffman has a good chance to get in, and break the once sure-fire Republican stronghold on the seat. It's more hilarious that he's backed by the completely dishonest, and below average intelligence politicall laughing stock Sarah Palin.

This is definitely one of the greatest races in politics this off year. What a gift the GOP has given the Democrats with this.


reports out of New York say that Scozzafava is quietly telling backers to now switch to the democrat and the RNC has now caved and is throwing it's support to Hoffman.

this is getting to be a fun race to watch.

[FranchiseBlade]

reports out of New York say that Scozzafava is quietly telling backers to now switch to the democrat. this is getting to be a fun race to watch.
Wow! I don't think the Dem has any chance there, but that would really be a slap in the face if that happened.

No matter what happens the situation is pure gold for the Democrats, and pure poison for the GOP.

[Ottomaton]

you're assuming Conservatives have any particular interest in the Republican party. by and large, they don't.

Awesome. Even basso has disowned the Republican Party.

We should take a moment to savor this. If anybody had predicted this when basso was crowing about dubbya's reelection four plus years ago, they'd have been laughed off as a joke.

http://musicgeneration.files.wordpress.com/2009/03/brown-rats.jpg

http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_qa7PMa5F3fQ/SiSaXWefY5I/AAAAAAAAAC4/7c0cHgGXYOI/s400/sinking_ship.jpg

[ryan_98]

reports out of New York say that Scozzafava is quietly telling backers to now switch to the democrat and the RNC has now caved and is throwing it's support to Hoffman.

this is getting to be a fun race to watch.

more of the establishment politician trying to keep it's hold on the 2 party system


http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2009/11/01/scozzafava-endorses-democrat-dropping-ny-congressional-race/

Republican Dede Scozzafava endorsed her former Democratic opponent Sunday in the race for an upstate New York

[MojoMan]

As demonstrated by her endorsement of the Democratic Candidate, Scozzafava was apparently a Democrat in disguise. The Republicans who put her up as the Republican candidate should all be thrown straight out on their butts.

The Republican party better learn fast from this little episode not to put up liberals like Scozzafava as Republican candidates in special elections any more.

Now, on to Florida. The Republican party has decided to endorse former governor Charlie Crist, another liberal leaning Republican, against the conservative Mario Rubio for the 2010 race for Florida's open Senate seat. Crist must now be given the same treatment as Scozzafava. At least there is a primary on this one, so there if Rubio beats Crist, the controversy should be a bit more subdued.

I am glad you lefties like this. I hope you continue liking it, because it is going to continue to keep happening.

The race for the NY 23 should be now be an easy victory for Hoffman, especially after Scozzafava's endorsement of the Democratic candidate.

[Batman Jones]

The race for the NY 23 should be now be an easy victory for Hoffman, especially after Scozzafava's endorsement of the Democratic candidate.

Hilarious. You promise to excommunicate all liberals and moderates from your party and then you say it will be easy to win in a pro-Obama Republican district. Hoffman might win (I kind of hope he does - you can't have too many Palin-Republicans), but it won't be easy.

You are cheering the 20%ification of your party. As a liberal Democrat, I am cheering too.

[Dan B.]

I think the Dems should listen to MoJo's advice and purify their party by eliminating all the Blue Dogs. Clearly a Democrat in NY should be identical to a Dem in Texas, just like a Republican should be. There's no difference between the states after all.

BTW Teddy Roosevelt was a Socialist. He was after all the first President to push for national health care.

[Ottomaton]

From NPR on Friday (http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=114330822):


Mr. DAVID BROOKS: Well, I'm looking at the House race in upstate New York, in New York 23, where you've got a moderate Republican named Dede Scozzafava, who's running not only against a Democrat, but running against a third-party, more conservative candidate, a guy named, Doug Hoffman, who is a - who was a favorite of the tea parties of the Rush Limbaugh-types and increasingly of a lot of people who want to run for president for the Republican nomination, including surprisingly Tim Pawlenty, the Minnesota governor. And basically, this is a race for the soul of the Republican Party. Scozzafava has a voting record which puts her at the exact middle of the political spectrum. And the question is: Can Republicans have a centrist and still be a Republican? Newt Gingrich thinks so. He thinks you need moderate Republicans. A lot of Republicans apparently don't think so. And so she's in real trouble.

ROBERT SIEGEL: This is a race that Glenn Beck and Rush Limbaugh have talked about it -they don't see her as being centrist. They see her as a liberal.

Mr. BROOKS: Well, maybe from their point of view, but people have actually done voting analyses of her voting record and it's almost exactly in the center of the national spectrum. In New York state, it's probably a little right of center. And so, really it's an attempt to define the Republican Party as almost a permanent minority party. It's a narrow casting of the Republican Party. Newt Gingrich is on the right side, a lot of people are not.

SIEGEL: E.J.?

Mr. E.J. DIONNE: I basically agree with David on this. I think it's a fascinating race because of the national import and the - some of the more moderate Republicans up there are trying to gain some traction for Scozzafava by saying, look, these are national guys coming in using our district to make a national point. But that doesn't seem to be a working. And right now, Doug Hoffman, the conservative, is closing the gap with the Democrat, Bill Owens. Owens hoped to win on this Republican split.

The paradox, I think, is if Hoffman wins, conservatives will hail it as a great victory. But I think it'll send exactly the wrong signal to the Republican Party. What you've got - the right signal is McDonnell, the right-winger who's moved to the center in order to win. And if they take out of this that tea-partyism(ph) is the way of the future, I think it'll be a long-term problem for the Republicans.

SIEGEL: Well, in the not so long term, but near term for the Republican Party, 2010, David, would you expect to see lots of conservative challengers of any Republican who would mention the center as a desirable place to be?

Mr. BROOKS: It seems that. I mean, there will be a strong reaction against Barack Obama in it. And there will be a temptation ago further and further to the right, which will - may pay off in the short term. There is a reaction against Obama in the country. If you look at the number of the people who call themselves conservatives - all-time high. Public opinion is clearly shifting to the right in reaction against Obama. It's a short-term gain and out of 2010, the victories they do pick up will probably, and I agree with E.J., send the wrong message nationally when you get a younger electorate, a more representative electorate than you get in a midterm.

Mr. DIONNE: You know, I was looking at some numbers this morning. And yes, this Gallup number shows a slight shift toward the conservative side in the ideological question that they ask, but it wasn't a big shift. But what I was struck by is a really sharp divide between opinion in the South and opinion in the rest of the country. And I think that the south really has turned - the white South, obviously - has turned negative on Obama. And I think when we analyze 2010, we're going to have to look at, you know, Southern Democrats are probably going to be in some trouble. But outside a few states, the democratic numbers and the Obama numbers are holding up pretty well in the rest of country.

Mr. BROOKS: Yeah, I would say on issues, on abortion, there's been a significant shift to the right, on gun ownership, on attitude toward business, on hostility to labor unions. There's been this interesting phenomenon where people are reacting against the Obama administration. Not only on party ID - in fact, not on party idea. Conservativism would be doing great except for the Republic Party. And that's essentially it's problem. But there is a conservative tie.



It is interesting to me that in objective measures, Scozzafava was actually right down the center, and right of center by NY standards, but she's been turned into a commie pinko liberal by the true believers.

[MojoMan]

From NPR on Friday (http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=114330822):


It is interesting to me that in objective measures, Scozzafava was actually right down the center, and right of center by NY standards, but she's been turned into a commie pinko liberal by the true believers.

And of course Barack Obama is a moderate.

Alrighty then.

[Ottomaton]

And of course Barack Obama is a moderate.

Alrighty then.

So now David Brooks is a commie pinko liberal, who is in the tank for the left?

Maybe you could start by providing us with a list of who isn't ideologically unsound, and we can go from there. The list of who is is clearly too long for you to transcribe in a single lifetime. Is Newt Gingrich a secret ultra-deep cover liberal stooge?

[Dan B.]

So now David Brooks is a commie pinko liberal, who is in the tank for the left?

Maybe you could start by providing us with a list of who isn't ideologically unsound, and we can go from there. The list of who is is clearly too long for you to transcribe in a single lifetime. Is Newt Gingrich a secret ultra-deep cover liberal stooge?

I'm betting that these names have no ideological bias whatsoever:

Charles Krauthammer
Bill Kristol
Neil Cavuto

[basso]

RobObama (http://www.politickernj.com/matt-friedman/34725/democrats-admit-paying-pro-daggett-call-obama-records-robocall-corzine)

Democrats admit paying for pro-Daggett call; Obama records robocall for Corzine

By MATT FRIEDMAN, PolitickerNJ.com Reporter
The Democratic State Committee now admits paying for a robocall to Somerset County voters that slams Republican Chris Christie and promotes independent gubernatorial candidate Christopher Daggett.

A Democratic spokeswoman says the party’s chairman, Joe Cryan, was not aware of the robocalls when he denied that the state committee had anything to do with them yesterday afternoon.

Cryan, who told PolitickerNJ.com yesterday afternoon that the Democratic State Committee had “absolutely” nothing to do with the call, could not immediately be reached for comment.

The call angered Republicans and further fueled conspiracy theories that Daggett is in cahoots with the Corzine camp. A disclaimer at the end says it was paid for by Victory ’09, “a project of the NJDSC” (Democratic State Committee), and gave the committee’s Trenton address.

Daggett, for his part, disavowed the call.

“Voters hate robocalls. This is just another instance of the dishonest ways Democrats and Republicans use to win campaigns and to fool voters,” he said in a statement this afternoon. “It is little wonder more and more voters are rejecting these kind of desperate dirty tricks and turning to my campaign for a positive message about how to make New Jersey more affordable and competitive.’’

Before the Democrats owned up to it, Daggett media advisor Bill Hillsman said the call might be a Republican trick to generate a sympathetic newspaper story.

"Yesterday, Jon Corzine's party boss Joe Cryan said that 'No, zero, nada, no,' when asked if he had anything to do with the robocalls," said Kevin Roberts, a spokesman for the Republican State Committee. "Today, it's clear that Cryan is an outright liar. Corzine's party boss knows what we know - Jon Corzine's record is so dreadful that they feel a need to try to trick voters into a second term."

In other robocall news, the Democratic State Committee is calling voters with a recording of President Obama imploring residents to “get out and vote on Tuesday, and vote for my friend and your governor, Jon Corzine.”

The Star-Ledger has audio of the call on the website.

[MojoMan]

RobObama (http://www.politickernj.com/matt-friedman/34725/democrats-admit-paying-pro-daggett-call-obama-records-robocall-corzine)

Democrats admit paying for pro-Daggett call; Obama records robocall for Corzine

By MATT FRIEDMAN, PolitickerNJ.com Reporter
The Democratic State Committee now admits paying for a robocall to Somerset County voters that slams Republican Chris Christie and promotes independent gubernatorial candidate Christopher Daggett.

A Democratic spokeswoman says the party’s chairman, Joe Cryan, was not aware of the robocalls when he denied that the state committee had anything to do with them yesterday afternoon.

Cryan, who told PolitickerNJ.com yesterday afternoon that the Democratic State Committee had “absolutely” nothing to do with the call, could not immediately be reached for comment.

The call angered Republicans and further fueled conspiracy theories that Daggett is in cahoots with the Corzine camp. A disclaimer at the end says it was paid for by Victory ’09, “a project of the NJDSC” (Democratic State Committee), and gave the committee’s Trenton address.

Daggett, for his part, disavowed the call.

“Voters hate robocalls. This is just another instance of the dishonest ways Democrats and Republicans use to win campaigns and to fool voters,” he said in a statement this afternoon. “It is little wonder more and more voters are rejecting these kind of desperate dirty tricks and turning to my campaign for a positive message about how to make New Jersey more affordable and competitive.’’

Before the Democrats owned up to it, Daggett media advisor Bill Hillsman said the call might be a Republican trick to generate a sympathetic newspaper story.

"Yesterday, Jon Corzine's party boss Joe Cryan said that 'No, zero, nada, no,' when asked if he had anything to do with the robocalls," said Kevin Roberts, a spokesman for the Republican State Committee. "Today, it's clear that Cryan is an outright liar. Corzine's party boss knows what we know - Jon Corzine's record is so dreadful that they feel a need to try to trick voters into a second term."

In other robocall news, the Democratic State Committee is calling voters with a recording of President Obama imploring residents to “get out and vote on Tuesday, and vote for my friend and your governor, Jon Corzine.”

The Star-Ledger has audio of the call on the website.

If the Democrats lose two of the three major races today, that will be a rude awakening for the Democrats. The polls suggest that they will probably lose the governor's race in Virginia and the NY-23 congressional race. The New Jersey governor's race looks like it is going to come down to the wire. If the Democrats lose in New Jersey, a solid blue Democratic stronghold, then it will be time for the Democrats to wake up and smell the coffee. The tide will have officially turned.

[basso]

If the Democrats lose two of the three major races today, that will be a rude awakening for the Democrats. The polls suggest that they will probably lose the governor's race in Virginia and the NY-23 congressional race. The New Jersey governor's race looks like it is going to come down to the wire. If the Democrats lose in New Jersey, a solid blue Democratic stronghold, then it will be time for the Democrats to wake up and smell the coffee. The tide will have officially turned.

unfortunately, i think the democrats will buy the election in NJ, unless Christie can put together a margin of victory "outside the margin of fraud."

in NY-23 I think Hoffman will win, but you can bet SEIU and the WPA will be busing them in from Burlington. but if Hoffman can hold on, this will be a major rebuke to Obama, who has put his personal prestige on the line.

[FranchiseBlade]

If the Democrats lose two of the three major races today, that will be a rude awakening for the Democrats. The polls suggest that they will probably lose the governor's race in Virginia and the NY-23 congressional race. The New Jersey governor's race looks like it is going to come down to the wire. If the Democrats lose in New Jersey, a solid blue Democratic stronghold, then it will be time for the Democrats to wake up and smell the coffee. The tide will have officially turned.
Not really. VA always elects a gov. from the opposite party as the President, and the Dems never had a shot in NY-23. This time they have a tiny shot there.

The only awakening for the Dems would be to lose NJ.

[FranchiseBlade]

unfortunately, i think the democrats will buy the election in NJ, unless Christie can put together a margin of victory "outside the margin of fraud."

in NY-23 I think Hoffman will win, but you can bet SEIU and the WPA will be busing them in from Burlington. but if Hoffman can hold on, this will be a major rebuke to Obama, who has put his personal prestige on the line.
What? Obama, like most Democrats will be delighted if Hoffman wins.

It will basically mean the GOP is hanging "Moderates and Centrists need not apply here" signs on their doors.

[basso]

What? Obama, like most Democrats will be delighted if Hoffman wins.


which is why Biden has been campaigning for Owens, and Obama has been making calls on Owens' behalf?

[MojoMan]

Not really. VA always elects a gov. from the opposite party as the President, and the Dems never had a shot in NY-23. This time they have a tiny shot there.

The only awakening for the Dems would be to lose NJ.

The Blue Dogs are likely to see it differently. Obama won in Virginia by 16 points, and in NY 23 by five points. Many of the Blue Dogs won their seats while riding this wave. They know they can lose their seats just as easily if the electoral wave recedes. That is what the Blue Dogs will be watching out for today, and that is what it appears they are likely to see.

Many of the Blue Dog Democrats serve conservative districts. They won their seats by promising that they would serve the conservative interests of their districts. So now they will be between a rock and a hard place. Do they go along with Obama on public option healthcare reform, and cap and trade legislation? Or do they want to keep their seats beyond the November 2010 elections?

The Blue Dogs are being backed into a corner.

http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_NUZ_fM-TQKQ/SX_8itKrAXI/AAAAAAAAMJU/QNtl7mvTTHU/s400/BlueDog2.jpg

[A_3PO]

which is why Biden has been campaigning for Owens, and Obama has been making calls on Owens' behalf?
This is a "no-lose" for the Dems and a "no-win" for Republicans. If Owens pulls it out somehow, the upset will boost Dem morale across the board and make Republicans look like buffoons. If Hoffman wins, kook Republicans gain a stronger grip on their party. To say Obama's personal prestige is on the line in this contest is complete nonsense, which is typical of your exaggerations.

[gifford1967]

This is a "no-lose" for the Dems and a "no-win" for Republicans. If Owens pulls it out somehow, the upset will boost Dem morale across the board and make Republicans look like buffoons. If Hoffman wins, kook Republicans gain a stronger grip on their party. To say Obama's personal prestige is on the line in this contest is complete nonsense, which is typical of your exaggerations.


This is exactly right. I'm definitely pulling for Hoffman. Giving the Beck/Malkin/Limbaugh wing of the Republican party more leverage is full of win.

[Major]

This is exactly right. I'm definitely pulling for Hoffman. Giving the Beck/Malkin/Limbaugh wing of the Republican party more leverage is full of win.

I disagree - anything that encourages the GOP to go more extreme does nothing good for country. It just pushes the GOP to be obstructionist and more ridiculous, and that just creates a more hyper-partisan Congress. None of that is good for anyone.

[gifford1967]

I disagree - anything that encourages the GOP to go more extreme does nothing good for country. It just pushes the GOP to be obstructionist and more ridiculous, and that just creates a more hyper-partisan Congress. None of that is good for anyone.


This is where we part ways Major. I think the Republican party has been so toxic for at least the last 3 decades that the country is best served by having it wither into an irrelevant rump party. Then we can focus on Democratic primaries and electing representatives that aren't in the tank to business interests.

[Major]

This is where we part ways Major. I think the Republican party has been so toxic for at least the last 3 decades that the country is best served by having it wither into an irrelevant rump party. Then we can focus on Democratic primaries and electing representatives that aren't in the tank to business interests.

That will never happen, though. This isn't and has never been a one-party country. People have an inherent "anyone but so-and-so" tendency. No matter how extreme the other party is, eventually people will get tired of the Dem party and move towards the opposition. It's in the Dem's best interests to have rational people in that opposition party.

Even now, when the Dems have basically as much control of Congress as they can have given the demographics of the country and the anger over Bush, the GOP can still stop things. Imagine if there were less Snowes and Collins, and more Joe Wilsons.

[gifford1967]

That will never happen, though. This isn't and has never been a one-party country. People have an inherent "anyone but so-and-so" tendency. No matter how extreme the other party is, eventually people will get tired of the Dem party and move towards the opposition. It's in the Dem's best interests to have rational people in that opposition party.

Even now, when the Dems have basically as much control of Congress as they can have given the demographics of the country and the anger over Bush, the GOP can still stop things. Imagine if there were less Snowes and Collins, and more Joe Wilsons.

Major, I think you're probably right taking the long view. But even in a short window where the Republicans are more marginalized than they they are now, some some signifcant, valuable legislation could be passed. Just imagine, with just a few more Senators right now, we could have really powerful, long term healthcare and energy policy reform.

I know. I'm dreaming.

[basso]

Major, I think you're probably right taking the long view. But even in a short window where the Republicans are more marginalized than they they are now, some some signifcant, valuable legislation could be passed. Just imagine, with just a few more Senators right now, we could have really powerful, long term healthcare and energy policy reform.

I know. I'm dreaming.

i'm trying to understand how a hoffman win marginalizes the republicans? who do you expect he will caucus with in congress?

[Major]

Major, I think you're probably right taking the long view. But even in a short window where the Republicans are more marginalized than they they are now, some some signifcant, valuable legislation could be passed. Just imagine, with just a few more Senators right now, we could have really powerful, long term healthcare and energy policy reform.


Certainly true - looking to 2010 and 2012, having some kooks in charge of the GOP could help the Dems, and that could help pass some of the Obama agenda. But my fear would be 2016 or 2020, having those kooks in charge of the country. I look at it sort of like the Christian Coalition (purely the political movement - nothing about the faith itself). They helped the GOP win when they were in the minority, and the GOP became hooked to it, and even now 20+ years later, they can't shake it and you have people like Palin becoming actual national political figures. If these crazy tea party people take over the GOP, I think bad things will come of it in the end.

[gifford1967]

i'm trying to understand how a hoffman win marginalizes the republicans? who do you expect he will caucus with in congress?


I can never tell when you are pretending not to understand simple concepts because you find them inconvenient. Needless to say, I stopped giving you benefit of the doubt years ago. So no explanation will be forthcoming.

[FranchiseBlade]

The Blue Dogs are likely to see it differently. Obama won in Virginia by 16 points, and in NY 23 by five points. Many of the Blue Dogs won their seats while riding this wave. They know they can lose their seats just as easily if the electoral wave recedes. That is what the Blue Dogs will be watching out for today, and that is what it appears they are likely to see.

Many of the Blue Dog Democrats serve conservative districts. They won their seats by promising that they would serve the conservative interests of their districts. So now they will be between a rock and a hard place. Do they go along with Obama on public option healthcare reform, and cap and trade legislation? Or do they want to keep their seats beyond the November 2010 elections?

The Blue Dogs are being backed into a corner.

http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_NUZ_fM-TQKQ/SX_8itKrAXI/AAAAAAAAMJU/QNtl7mvTTHU/s400/BlueDog2.jpg
While they are conservative, they aren't insane Sarah Palin, Hoffman style conservative to where they have no longer deal with reality.

Hoffman winning is a plus to even the blue dog Democrats because the more the crazies like Hoffman get in to power and the spotlight the less threat any and all Democrats will fill from the GOP.

[FranchiseBlade]

i'm trying to understand how a hoffman win marginalizes the republicans? who do you expect he will caucus with in congress?
Because Hoffman is crazy, and is supported by proven liars who are also crazy like Palin. The more mainstream REpublicans see their party following that trend, the more they will abandon it.

[MojoMan]

i'm trying to understand how a hoffman win marginalizes the republicans? who do you expect he will caucus with in congress?

This the reverse logic used by lefties when things do not go their way.

In this case, the argument goes that by losing this race, they are really winning.

It is similar to the AGW arguments that say when the world experiences unexpected cooling trends, that too is evidence that supports their AGW theories.

So, if they win, they win. Also, if they lose, they win.

Pretty handy way of thinking, isn't it?

[Rashmon]

i'm trying to understand how a hoffman win marginalizes the republicans? who do you expect he will caucus with in congress?

If you can not understand this then you have lost your final remnant of objective thought.

[MojoMan]

The word is that Corzine and the Dems might try some dirty tricks at the polls to steal the race in New Jersey.

Kind of like Karzai did in Afghanistan.

[Rashmon]

The word is that Corzine and the Dems might try some dirty tricks at the polls to steal the race in New Jersey.

Kind of like Karzai did in Afghanistan.

Trader_Jorge, I see you are spending a lot of time here these days; still unemployed?

[FranchiseBlade]

The word is that Corzine and the Dems might try some dirty tricks at the polls to steal the race in New Jersey.

Kind of like Karzai did in Afghanistan.

I heard that the conservatives in NY-23 are using weapons to threaten anyone who might vote against Hoffman. They are kind of like Saddam Hussein.

So much for basing posts on evidence and providing support.

[basso]

While they are conservative, they aren't insane Sarah Palin, Hoffman style conservative to where they have no longer deal with reality.



Hoffman winning is the reality. time will tell what the effect will be, but i think you will be surprised how much it changes the 2010/2012 races, and in ways you are unlikely to enjoy, much less understand.

[mc mark]

The word is that Corzine and the Dems might try some dirty tricks at the polls to steal the race in New Jersey.

Kind of like Karzai did in Afghanistan.

right on schedule

from josh--

Tighten Your Seatbelts

For the last few days, Republicans and their media enablers have been laying the groundwork (http://tpmmuckraker.talkingpointsmemo.com/2009/11/whats_new_lacking_evidence_conservatives_again_sto.php?ref=f pblg) to declare any close races today as stolen by Democratic election fraud.

[Rocketman95]

right on schedule

from josh--

Tighten Your Seatbelts

For the last few days, Republicans and their media enablers have been laying the groundwork (http://tpmmuckraker.talkingpointsmemo.com/2009/11/whats_new_lacking_evidence_conservatives_again_sto.php?ref=f pblg) to declare any close races today as stolen by Democratic election fraud.

typical.

[FranchiseBlade]

Hoffman winning is the reality. time will tell what the effect will be, but i think you will be surprised how much it changes the 2010/2012 races, and in ways you are unlikely to enjoy, much less understand.
I never claimed Hoffman winning wasn't a reality.

You aren'rt really qualified to give anyone on this board a lesson on what they will understand or not understand regarding national politics.

[mc mark]

dirty tricks at the polls?...hum... (http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/2009/11/report-police-called-to-ny-23-polling-sitesto-deal-with-rowdy-hoffman-backers.php?ref=fpblg)

NY-23: Police Called!

Man, if these were Dems, John Fund might have a serious, election-undermining scandal on his hands.

We have late reports that police had to be called to a St. Lawrence County polling sites when frenzied and sticker clad Hoffman backers refused to leave the 100 foot non-electioneering zone around the poll. They were "yelling anti-choice stuff at voters," says a former state Dem chair.

--Josh Marshall

[A_3PO]

Certainly true - looking to 2010 and 2012, having some kooks in charge of the GOP could help the Dems, and that could help pass some of the Obama agenda. But my fear would be 2016 or 2020, having those kooks in charge of the country. I look at it sort of like the Christian Coalition (purely the political movement - nothing about the faith itself). They helped the GOP win when they were in the minority, and the GOP became hooked to it, and even now 20+ years later, they can't shake it and you have people like Palin becoming actual national political figures. If these crazy tea party people take over the GOP, I think bad things will come of it in the end.
I agree with you except the kooks won't take over the country, they will marginalize the GOP and cause the Dems to get overconfident, lax and more corrupt because the GOP won't provide a national alternative for voters.

[FranchiseBlade]

dirty tricks at the polls?...hum... (http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/2009/11/report-police-called-to-ny-23-polling-sitesto-deal-with-rowdy-hoffman-backers.php?ref=fpblg)

NY-23: Police Called!

Man, if these were Dems, John Fund might have a serious, election-undermining scandal on his hands.

We have late reports that police had to be called to a St. Lawrence County polling sites when frenzied and sticker clad Hoffman backers refused to leave the 100 foot non-electioneering zone around the poll. They were "yelling anti-choice stuff at voters," says a former state Dem chair.

--Josh Marshall
Hoffman's supporters are already violating the law in regards to election laws.

It's funny to look back art mojo man's unfounded rumor.

[Batman Jones]

I never claimed Hoffman winning wasn't a reality.

You aren'rt really qualified to give anyone on this board a lesson on what they will understand or not understand regarding national politics.

Yeah, as if we can't "understand" angry white people.

[basso]

Yeah, as if we can't "understand" angry white people.

you're the living proof of that.

[mc mark]

beautiful!

NY-23: [UPDATE] Hoffman Accuses Democrats of ‘Stealing the Election’ (http://washingtonindependent.com/66380/ny-23-hoffman-accuses-democrats-of-stealing-the-election)

PLATTSBURGH, N.Y. — At a short press availability in his campaign office here, NY-23 Conservative Party candidate Doug Hoffman said that a GOTV volunteer’s tires had been slashed, and all but blamed Democrats for the dirty trick.

“There are reports that they’re bringing in the troops and they’re bringing in ACORN,” said Hoffman. “I think the Democrats are doing anything they possibly can to steal this election away from the 23rd district.”

The campaign gave reporters the name and phone number of Jeremy Kain, the volunteer who claimed to have his tires slashed, but asked to confirm whether he was accusing the Democrats of supressing the vote, Hoffman started to backtrack: ‘We’ve called in the police and the police will be investigating.”

-----------------
Update:Anton Troianovski of the Wall Street Journal followed up with the Plattsburgh police on this, and was told that the volunteer actually damaged his tire on a broken bottle. I asked Hoffman campaign manager Dan Tripp about this–he said he had no comment because the campaign had not heard this yet.

[mc mark]

OH NO ACORN!!!!!!!!!

in Upstate, rural New York....

*snicker*

[basso]

OH NO ACORN!!!!!!!!!

muck mark representin' with the pro-child prostitution vote.

[mc mark]

muck mark representin' with the pro-child prostitution vote.


you're an idiot

you know how white upstate new york is?

[pgabriel]

sorry edit

[basso]

a republican sweep in VA.

[basso]

you're an idiot

you know how white upstate new york is?

......

[FranchiseBlade]

muck mark representin' with the pro-child prostitution vote.
Yeah because that's a stated goal of ACORN.

[mc mark]

that's why they had to bus the fraud in.

Like the fraud of having his campaign worker's tires slashed?

Please post the link of the ACORN army descending on the good, white folks of upstate New York?

and tell me something genius

Why is a guy who doesn't even live in the district he wants to represent and had 95% of his campaign cash come from outside the district complaining about a straw man?

[mc mark]

too slow basso

[FranchiseBlade]

beautiful!

-----------------
Update:Anton Troianovski of the Wall Street Journal followed up with the Plattsburgh police on this, and was told that the volunteer actually damaged his tire on a broken bottle. I asked Hoffman campaign manager Dan Tripp about this–he said he had no comment because the campaign had not heard this yet.
Truly amazing. The Hoffman crowd was complaining of fraud before the day even started, but so far the only incident that needed to have law enforcement intervention was the Hoffman supporters not obeying the election laws, and a guy running over a broken bottle.

[bigtexxx]

McDonnell is up by almost a 2 to 1 margin in Virginia! That is a MUCH bigger portion of the vote than Obama received in 2008.

[FranchiseBlade]

So far everything seems pretty much as to be expected for today. GOP is living up to the expectations in VA, NJ too close to call(this might be a legit victory for the GOP) and NY 23 is good for the Democrats no matter what the outcome is.

[basso]

So far everything seems pretty much as to be expected for today. GOP is living up to the expectations in VA, NJ too close to call(this might be a legit victory for the GOP) and NY 23 is good for the Democrats no matter what the outcome is.

and it's all a referendum on the Once.

[mc mark]

So far everything seems pretty much as to be expected for today. GOP is living up to the expectations in VA, NJ too close to call(this might be a legit victory for the GOP) and NY 23 is good for the Democrats no matter what the outcome is.

Also exit polls in VA & NJ are showing that jobs and the economy are the main reason for people's decisions. Not a referendum on Obama. In fact the big O's approvals in both states have remained relatively consistent even up to Election Day. So there goes that talking point.

[mc mark]

and it's all a referendum on the Once.

you are so lost

[bigtexxx]

Let's see here. Obama takes office in January, then the first major election since that time, he loses big in at least one key race, with serious threats in others (that may turn out to be Republican victories). That is not good news for Barack.

I heard on tv that nearly 1 in 4 voters in Virginia cast their votes for the Republican candidate due in part to their opposition of Obama. So yes, you can say that many voters viewed this as a referendum on Barack.

[mc mark]

I blame Obama for the world series going to six games!

DAMN YOU OBAMA!!!!

:mad:

[DonnyMost]

rrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrreeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeaaaaaaaacccccc ccccccchhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh

http://photos-a.ak.fbcdn.net/hphotos-ak-snc3/hs001.snc3/10849_682580526366_37500534_38756715_3321060_n.jpg

[KingCheetah]

I heard on tv

Well done bigtexxx, well done.

[ryan_98]

I blame Obama for the world series going to six games!

i blame instant replay. it happened like this :o

<object width="560" height="340"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/1C8y5z_7YtA&hl=en&fs=1&"></param><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"></param><param name="allowscriptaccess" value="always"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/1C8y5z_7YtA&hl=en&fs=1&" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowscriptaccess="always" allowfullscreen="true" width="560" height="340"></embed></object>

[basso]

i blame Obama for baseball in November.

[mc mark]

Truly amazing. The Hoffman crowd was complaining of fraud before the day even started, but so far the only incident that needed to have law enforcement intervention was the Hoffman supporters not obeying the election laws, and a guy running over a broken bottle.

http://www.esquire.com/cm/esquire/images/8e/broken-beer-bottle-0424209-lg.jpg = ACORN

[mc mark]

WOW!!
34% reporting

NYC-Mayor
Bloomberg I-R 49%
Votes 168,407
Thompson D 48%
Votes 166,875
Christopher C 2%
Votes 5,780

[mc mark]

oh my

9% reporting

NY-23
Owens D 52%
Votes 5,501
Scozzafava R 4%
Votes 437
Hoffman C 44%
Votes 4,633

[ryan_98]

WOW!!

oh my


i think there will be much more than broken bottles if those results hold up.

[MojoMan]

McDonnell has won Virginia in a landslide.

Fox just called New Jersey for Christie.

Two down, one to go.

Apparently NY 23 could go quite late, as the district is spread across a large portion of Northern New York.

[MojoMan]

and it's all a referendum on the Once.

"The Once"

LOL :)

Great post.

I am going to steal that quote from you, if you don't mind. I think some people might appreciate that on some of the other message boards that I participate on.

[mc mark]

Apparently NY 23 could go quite late, as the district is spread across a large portion of Northern New York.


Funny you should mention it

Because of how big it is, next year the district will be annexed into two democratic districts. Forever becoming a democratic stronghold.

[MojoMan]

Funny you should mention it

Because of how big it is, next year the district will be annexed into two democratic districts. Forever becoming a democratic stronghold.

New York is projected to lose several representative seats after the 2010 census, so I do not know how they are going to be able to make any of the state's districts smaller.

[thadeus]

go Smarty Jones, go!

[mc mark]

New York is projected to lose several representative seats after the 2010 census,

not if ACORN has anything to do with it

[ryan_98]

Bloomberg led Democrat William Thompson, 50 percent to 47 percent, with 13 percent of election districts counted, according to unofficial results reported by the Associated Press.

[basso]

Bloomberg led Democrat William Thompson, 50 percent to 47 percent, with 13 percent of election districts counted, according to unofficial results reported by the Associated Press.

bloomberg won, but it was far closer than anyone would have imagined.

[mc mark]

Bloomberg led Democrat William Thompson, 50 percent to 47 percent, with 13 percent of election districts counted, according to unofficial results reported by the Associated Press.


Bloomberg was always going to win. that was never in doubt. but $250 million is a lot for 3%

[ryan_98]

Bloomberg was always going to win. that was never in doubt. but $250 million is a lot for 3%

no kidding. not exactly bang for his buck, and i guess based on other self funded campaigns he should just be happy he won.

i really don't like that campaigns spend THAT much money (local, state, or national), it eliminates any chance of a regular person gaining traction... then again, it is his own money.

[basso]

Bloomberg was always going to win. that was never in doubt. but $250 million is a lot for 3%

where'd you get $250M? the official number is more like $100M. unofficial is likely $120M-$140M, still obscene, but not $250M. no need to make stuff up when the truth is offensive enough.

[Sweet Lou 4 2]

I am glad Corzine lost - I never liked the guy and I do think he was corrupt.

[mc mark]

where'd you get $250M? the official number is more like $100M. unofficial is likely $120M-$140M, still obscene, but not $250M. no need to make stuff up when the truth is offensive enough.


I have the real math

[Sweet Lou 4 2]

where'd you get $250M? the official number is more like $100M. unofficial is likely $120M-$140M, still obscene, but not $250M. no need to make stuff up when the truth is offensive enough.

Bloomberg isn't really a republican though...not by Sarah Palin and co standards - they'd call him a liberal if he ran in District NY-23.

[mc mark]

Looks like there won't be a decision on NY23 until the morning

Nightly night boys and girls

[basso]

http://www2.nationalreview.com/dest/2009/11/02/1547aeee135d93cb092d5c55f780f80f.jpg

[basso]

not a referendum...

http://www2.nationalreview.com/dest/2009/10/28/528cb7aea2946ebc44fd7fff465b241c.jpg

[basso]

10k absentees to count in NY-23, so may not be a result tonight.

[Ottomaton]

Hoffman winning is the reality. time will tell what the effect will be, but i think you will be surprised how much it changes the 2010/2012 races, and in ways you are unlikely to enjoy, much less understand.

http://www.behindthehype.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/03/dewey_defeats_truman.jpg

10k absentees to count in NY-23, so may not be a result tonight.

Basso's AM pontificating gives way to PM equivocating. It's amusing how much being on the wrong side of results makes you tend to believe things have suddenly become 'unclear'.

[Batman Jones]

10k absentees to count in NY-23, so may not be a result tonight.

LMAO.

[ScriboErgoSum]

I'm bummed about the Maine vote over gay marriage, but I'm glad I got to cast my vote on the winning side of the domestic partnership referendum in Washington.

Unfortunately we failed to pass an initiative limiting government growth, and Seattle voters proved again that they almost never see a tax increase they won't vote for.

[mc mark]

Well good morning Tea baggers!

Democrats have captured the 23rd Congressional District in New York.

CNN and Fox News called the race for Democrat Bill Owens, making him the first Democrat to hold the upstate New York seat since the Civil War. With 87 percent of precincts reporting, Owens led conservative party candidate Doug Hoffman by 49-45.

http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/2009/11/ny-23-owens-wins.php#more


Palin faints

It just goes to show, the good people of upstate New York are conservative, but they're not nuts.

[FranchiseBlade]

Well good morning Tea baggers!

Democrats have captured the 23rd Congressional District in New York.

CNN and Fox News called the race for Democrat Bill Owens, making him the first Democrat to hold the upstate New York seat since the Civil War. With 87 percent of precincts reporting, Owens led conservative party candidate Doug Hoffman by 49-45.

http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/2009/11/ny-23-owens-wins.php#more


Palin faints

It just goes to show, the good people of upstate New York are conservative, but they're not nuts.Truly amazing. The GOP did get a win that was going to be a toss up in NJ.

But for the NY-23 to go for the Dems is unbelievable. As much as I want to make up reasons why and let basso no it was referendum on Obama, I can't do it. It's just that the party of 'no' screwed themselves up so badly. What a sham. I guess the Palin branch and their plans to kick moderates out of the party will have to wait a bit longer.

[MojoMan]

Congratulations to Bill Owens on his victory in NY-23.

I would expect Hoffman to run again for the seat in the regular election in November 2010. Of course, that race will be conducted without the participation of Dede Scozzafava. Hoffman, who is actually a Republican, will in all probability be the Republican nominee.

Until then, best wished to Bill Owens.

[Rocketman95]

Congratulations to Bill Owens on his victory in NY-23.

I would expect Hoffman to run again for the seat in the regular election in November 2010. Of course, that race will be conducted without the participation of Dede Scozzafava. Hoffman, who is actually a Republican, will in all probability be the Republican nominee.

Until then, best wished to Bill Owens.

if you're t_j, you have me fooled. :)

[MojoMan]

Here is an excellent article analyzing the results of the 2009 elections from political analyst Michael Barone, who specializes in analyzing polls and elections, and the internals of these polls.

Lessons from the 2009 Election Results (http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/blogs/beltway-confidential/Lessons-from-the-2009-election-results-69054827.html)
By: Michael Barone

My Wednesday Examiner column, written as the 2009 election returns were coming in, stands up pretty well. But let me add some observations written as the course of the elections became clearer.

First, in the governor elections in Virginia and New Jersey, the Democratic candidate ran far behind Barack Obama’s percentages in 2008 and the Republican candidates ran ahead of George W. Bush’s percentages in 2004. The numbers are pretty daunting. In Virginia Creigh Deeds won 41% of the votes, way behind Barack Obama’s 53% in 2008. And in New Jersey Democratic incumbent Jon Corzine won 45% of the votes, way behind Obama’s 57% in 2008.

In contrast, the Republican candidates won higher percentages than Bush won in the recent high-water mark of the Republican party in 2004. Republican Bob McDonnell won 59% in Virginia, well ahead of Bush’s 54%. And Republican Chris Christie won 49%, ahead of Bush’s 46%. On the basis of these numbers you could say—in races where the issues were reasonably congruent though not identical to national issues—that Democrats were performing far below their recent optimal levels and Republicans were performing well above them.

Second, and here I want to credit for this observations longtime Democratic pollster and political analyst Pat Caddell, affluent suburban voters moved sharply toward Republicans in 2009.

Bergen County, New Jersey, a 56%-42% Corzine constituency in 2005, came within a point or two of voting for Christie, and in Virginia McDonnell carried 51%-49% Fairfax County—Republican for years but recently in cultural issues and with an increasing immigrant population Democratic (60%-39% Obama in 2008).

In addition, Westchester County, New York, voted 58%-42% for a Republican county executive after voting almost exactly the opposite way, in a race involving the same two candidates, four years before . The Philadelphia suburban counties, increasingly Democratic in 1996, 2000, 2004 and 2008, voted Republican in a partisan race for the Supreme Court in 2009.

From the 1996 election up through and including 2008, affluent counties in the East, Midwest and West have trended Democratic, largely through distaste for the religious and cultural conservatives whom voters there have seen (not without reason) as dominant in the Republican party. Now, with the specter of higher tax rates and a vastly expanded public sector, they may be—possibly—headed in the other direction. An interesting trend to watch.

Finally, third, what will be the impact of these elections on forthcoming votes in Congress on the Democratic leadership’s controversial and unpopular health legislation. The Virginia Board of Elections give us some hints when it aggregates the results by congressional district. In the 2008 elections three Democrats captured three previously Republican congressional districts in Virginia, giving Democrats six or the eleven-member delegation.

The results of the gubernatorial election show that at least some of these Democrats are imperiled.

In the 2nd congressional district, where Democrat Glenn Nye beat Republican incumbent Thelma Drake 52%-47%, McDonnell beat Deeds 62%-38%. In the 5th congressional district, where Democrat Tom Perriello beat Republican incumbent Virgil Goode 50.01%-49.85%, or a margin of 727 popular votes, the lowest in the country, McDonnell beat Deeds 61%-39%. In the 11th congressional district, where Democrat Gerry Connally won 55%-43% a district vacated by Republican incumbent Tom Davis, McDonnell beat Deeds 55%-45%. And the southwest, coal-producing “Fighting Ninth,” represented since 1982 by Democrat Rick Boucher, voted 67%-33% for McDonnell.

I cannot imagine that Congressmen Nye, Perriello, Connally and Boucher have not already accessed the websites which have shown the position of their constituents in a contest which, while like all governorship contests has its own specific features, was also in its contrast on issue positions reasonably congruent with those prevailing on national issues. And I can certainly respond with sympathy if any or all of these incumbents responded to these numbers with a two-word comment of which I will relay only the first word which is, “Oh.”

The 2009 election results are certainly not going to make it easy for Speaker Nancy Pelosi to round up the needed 218 votes for Democrats’ health care bills.

[mc mark]

So you (or your article) are saying that last night was a referendum on healthcare reform.

oookay

[MojoMan]

So you (or your article) are saying that last night was a referendum on healthcare reform.

oookay

Health care reform was a factor. And the results from last night will effect the outcome of the health care debate.

In fact, Harry Reid has now announced that health care reform will not be completed this year:

Reid Signals Delay of Health Care Bill (http://www.usatoday.com/NEWS/usaedition/2009-11-04-capcol04_ST_U.htm?csp=34)

The Senate Democratic leader indicated Tuesday that lawmakers may not complete health care legislation this year, missing President Obama's deadline on his signature issue and pushing debate into a congressional election year.

With eight weeks left, the Senate is running out of time to finish a comprehensive bill to extend coverage to millions of Americans and control rising medical costs. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, D-Nev., emerged from a closed-door meeting of rank-and-file Democrats signaling delay was likely.

Asked whether he could pass health care this year, Reid said: "We're not going to be bound by any timelines. We need to do the best job we can for the American people. We want quality legislation, and we're going to do that."

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and other Democratic leaders are preparing the House version of a bill to extend health insurance coverage to millions who don't have it. A House vote could come soon.

Similar indications are coming from the House. Here is a link to an ABC News article discussing those comments:

Top Dems: No Health Care Bill in 2009 (http://abcnews.go.com/m/screen?id=8987651&pid=4380645)

Elections do have consequences. And this most recent postponement of the target date for passing health care legislation is one of the consequences of this election.

[Rocketman95]

you need to understand the difference between words like "will" and "may".

[MojoMan]

you need to understand the difference between words like "will" and "may".

Does that mean you believe that this is going to get done this year?

Harry Reid and the congressional staffers quoted in the other article would not be making these statements if this had any reasonable chance of getting done this year.

The big question that will have to be confronted soon is whether or not health care reform can be passed next year, which is an election year.

[basso]

well, that was...informative.

first, no matter the spin, this was absolutely a referendum on Obama and Obama care. both appear damaged, the latter perhaps critically, and Obama still has some residual good will with true-blue voters nationally. Oh, i have no doubt that PelosiReid will pass something and get it to Obama's desk, and he'll sign it and declare Change! but it will be a bloated financial albatross that will haunt moderate democratic candidates in the years to come.

second, and relative to the point above, this is a fiscally conservative country now, but not a socially conservative one (ME notwithstanding). Christie and McDonnell won by emphasizing fiscal sanity and competence, Hoffman lost largely because he did too much of the reverse (i disagree w/ Mojo, i don't think he will be the nominee in 2010, although someone with Tea party ties will be). this is a good thing; Christie, btw, has the magic mix: pro-gay, anti-abortion.

third, in the narrow case of NY-23, we learned several things: the tea party movement is for real, and not going away. A (relative) conservative still won the district (Owens came across as right of Scozza), and the republican party in New York is (still) a mess (although some interesting republican wins in NYC city council races). it also tells us something about who the leaders of the republican party will be in the next election cycle. Pawlenty and Palin helped themselves, Gingrich did not. and make no mistake, the Hoffman insurgency was as much about sending a message to the business-as-usual republican establishment as it was about sending a message to Obama.

Lastly, on a night when democrats were routed in Virginia, a republican defeated an Obama-backed incumbent in NJ, who'd spent bloombergian sums on his campaign, and gay marriage lost in Maine, muck batman and their cohorts in the media are resplendent in their glee...

...informative.

[rimrocker]

Except governors don't have votes in Congress. The two Congressional elections both went to Dems... they provide two more solid votes for HCR and bring the Dems House total up to 258... which means Dems could lose 40 votes on any particular issue and still have it pass.

On the governors, congrats... you kicked out a corrupt and ineffectual pol who got bored of raping the country from Wall Street and was dabbling in something he felt was worthy of his ego. No surprise, but please read this as a NJ turn and sink millions into the Philly and NYC media markets for 2012. It could pay off. Really.

In Virginia, you had a guy running away from his wingnut past as fast and hard as he could while beating a surprise Dem candidate who ran a horrible campaign and did not get the full support of the party. Wow.

So, how does VA square with Hoffman? Seems like the candidate running away from wingnuttia won and the candidate embracing it lost a seat that had been held by Repubs for over 100 years.

Meanwhile, the national polling on HCR hasn't changed significantly in months.

[MojoMan]

third, in the narrow case of NY-23, we learned several things: the tea party movement is for real, and not going away. A (relative) conservative still won the district (Owens came across as right of Scozza), and the republican party in New York is (still) a mess (although some interesting republican wins in NYC city council races).

Bill Owens ran against the public option, by the way, so he is not expected to be of any help to the Dems on that score.

Also, you could certainly be right about Owens not being the Republican nominee next year. However, considering he had no real support from the Republican party until less than a week before the election, he did finish surprisingly well.

[mc mark]

How the hell did Palin help herself? The candidate she endorsed lost.

[Rocketman95]

How the hell did Palin help herself? The candidate she endorsed lost.

she didn't rack up thousands of dollars in clothes on the rnc's dime?

[MojoMan]

How the hell did Palin help herself? The candidate she endorsed lost.

Sarah Palin endorsed a conservative Republican, who was running as an independent due to the back-room chicanery of the New York Republican establishment in NY 23, and the race turned on a dime. Has Barack Obama ever demonstrated the political muscle to influence a race in this way. I will answer for you. No he has not. This was an amazing turn of events, the likes of which I have never seen, and it was empowered by Sarah Palin.

But if you guys truly believe that she is irrelevant and powerless, then you will ignore her from now on. The proof of your true regard for her will be demonstrated by your collective actions.

[basso]

Bill Owens ran against the public option, by the way, so he is not expected to be of any help to the Dems on that score.

Also, you could certainly be right about Owens not being the Republican nominee next year. However, considering he had no real support from the Republican party until less than a week before the election, he did finish surprisingly well.

i agree, he did surprisingly well, and had scozza not double-crossed the party, he would have won (her share was larger than the Owens/Hoffman split). however, his is not the most telegenic personality, and Owens came across as a rugged, folksy, outdoorsy guy, a plus in a the rural adirondacks. the republicans will find someone else. if Owens keeps his distance from Obamacare, he could stick around.

[Rocketman95]

Sarah Palin endorsed a conservative Republican, who was running as an independent due to the back-room chicanery of the New York Republican establishment in NY 23, and the race turned on a dime. Has Barack Obama ever demonstrated the political muscle to influence a race in this way. I will answer for you. No he has not. This was an amazing turn of events, the likes of which I have never seen, and it was empowered by Sarah Palin.

But if you guys truly believe that she is irrelevant and powerless, then you will ignore her from now on. The proof of your true regard for her will be demonstrated by your collective actions.

i guess you forgot about 11/4/08.

you must be dizzy from all your spinning.

[justtxyank]

Wait, are we really arguing that Palin isn't a powerful force right now?

[Depressio]

Sarah Palin endorsed a conservative Republican, who was running as an independent due to the back-room chicanery of the New York Republican establishment in NY 23, and the race turned on a dime. Has Barack Obama ever demonstrated the political muscle to influence a race in this way. I will answer for you. No he has not. This was an amazing turn of events, the likes of which I have never seen, and it was empowered by Sarah Palin.

Palin for president, right?

Sad that people support her. We'll just have to agree to disagree on whether she is a complete idiot or not. Yeah, she has influence, and that's sad to me. People make me sad.

[Dan B.]

Sarah Palin endorsed a conservative Republican, who was running as an independent due to the back-room chicanery of the New York Republican establishment in NY 23, and the race turned on a dime. Has Barack Obama ever demonstrated the political muscle to influence a race in this way. I will answer for you. No he has not. This was an amazing turn of events, the likes of which I have never seen, and it was empowered by Sarah Palin.

But if you guys truly believe that she is irrelevant and powerless, then you will ignore her from now on. The proof of your true regard for her will be demonstrated by your collective actions.

You are absolutely right. Palin did have a heavy influence on NY-23. She influenced DeDe to endorse a Dem, and caused thousands of lifelong Republicans to switch their vote. She flexed her muscle and made a district that hasn't voted for a Democrat since before the GOP existed go blue.

[basso]

You are absolutely right. Palin did have a heavy influence on NY-23. She influenced DeDe to endorse a Dem, and caused thousands of lifelong Republicans to switch their vote. She flexed her muscle and made a district that hasn't voted for a Democrat since before the GOP existed go blue.

blue yes, but not liberal

[Dan B.]

blue yes, but not liberal

It's kind of an either/or thing basso. You either take the majority and tolerate Blue Dogs and liberal Dems, or you purify and merrily toil away in the minority. If the Dems expect to win in conservative leaning districts the Representatives will obviously have more conservative platforms. Just like if Republicans want to win in California or New York they need to find candidates with relatively moderate platforms.

[MojoMan]

Palin for president, right?

Sad that people support her. We'll just have to agree to disagree on whether she is a complete idiot or not. Yeah, she has influence, and that's sad to me. People make me sad.

She has not demonstrated she is ready to be President. She will have to amaze a lot of Republicans to a degree that is well beyond what most Republicans are expecting to win the Republican nomination. I believe she will impress people over the next few years more than they are expecting. But not enough more to earn the Republican nomination for President in 2012.

Sarah Palin is still very young. She is 45 years old. She does not have to run this time, and I do not believe that it is likely that she will. But in say 11 years, she will be 56. That is a better age to be President than 45 in my view. She needs to accept a cabinet spot under a Republican president, perhaps in 2012, and then go take it from there.

She could be a force to be reckoned with in the years to come, but she is still too new on the political scene. Besides, we have just tried an experiment with a green young president, and it is not working out so well. I doubt that the American people are going to want to go down this same road again for a long time.

[Batman Jones]

blue yes, but not liberal

No matter how bad you get shamed, there's always a new meme waiting in the wings.

Yesterday you promised Hoffman would win. You were wrong again. As usual. Why not admit it, just once?

[mc mark]

Sarah Palin endorsed a conservative Republican, who was running as an independent due to the back-room chicanery of the New York Republican establishment in NY 23, and the race turned on a dime. Has Barack Obama ever demonstrated the political muscle to influence a race in this way. I will answer for you. No he has not. This was an amazing turn of events, the likes of which I have never seen, and it was empowered by Sarah Palin.

But if you guys truly believe that she is irrelevant and powerless, then you will ignore her from now on. The proof of your true regard for her will be demonstrated by your collective actions.

you're making me dizzy with your spin

[finalsbound]

She could be a force to be reckoned with in the years to come

*fingers crossed*

[leroy]

Sarah Palin endorsed a conservative Republican, who was running as an independent due to the back-room chicanery of the New York Republican establishment in NY 23, and the race turned on a dime. Has Barack Obama ever demonstrated the political muscle to influence a race in this way. I will answer for you. No he has not. This was an amazing turn of events, the likes of which I have never seen, and it was empowered by Sarah Palin.

But if you guys truly believe that she is irrelevant and powerless, then you will ignore her from now on. The proof of your true regard for her will be demonstrated by your collective actions.

So, Sarah Palin caused a district that has been in Republican hands since the Civil War to elect a Democrat? Am I getting that right?

Thanks for that, Sarah.

[MojoMan]

So, Sarah Palin caused a district that has been in Republican hands since the Civil War to elect a Democrat? Am I getting that right?

Thanks for that, Sarah.

Owens was beating Scozzafava prior to Palin's endorsement of Hoffman. So, no, you are not getting it right. And no one who is actually involved in politics and is well informed about what happened in this race will share your perspective on this.

[BigBenito]

Exactly right.

These are three fascinating races, each with a story to tell. My, how times have changed since last November when Barack Obama was elected president.

I agree that the most interesting of the group is NY-23. This has been a Republican seat since 1871, so the biggest upset that could happen here would be the Democrat winning. Hoffman is actually a Republican, but he was not annointed by the back-room Republican power brokers, so he decided to run as an independent against the left leaning Scozzafava.

In the most recent polls, Hoffman's is leading that race, the Democrat is running second and the Republican, Dede Scozzafava, is running third.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2009/house/ny/new_york_23rd_district_special_election-1119.html

This is a dramatic turnaround from even one week ago. After Sarah Palin flew in and endorsed Hoffman over Scozzafavaendorsed Hoffman over Scozzafava (http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1009/28641.html), the race was completely transformed. The Republican party has been put on notice with the events that have occurred here in this race.
qft, man... qft.

[Rocketman95]

qft, man... qft.

ouch.

[GladiatoRowdy]

perhaps in 2012

{snicker}

[Dan B.]

So, Sarah Palin caused a district that has been in Republican hands since the Civil War to elect a Democrat? Am I getting that right?

Thanks for that, Sarah.

Owens was beating Scozzafava prior to Palin's endorsement of Hoffman. So, no, you are not getting it right. And no one who is actually involved in politics and is well informed about what happened in this race will share your perspective on this.

MoJo's partly right on this.

Ultimately Hoffman caused the district to flip by splitting the vote. Palin just went rogue and endorsed him. I think her effect may have tipped the scales, as that was probably what pushed DeDe into endorsing Owens.

[FranchiseBlade]

well, that was...informative.

first, no matter the spin, this was absolutely a referendum on Obama and Obama care.
By spin, do you mean the most scientifically accurate way we have of measuring whether or not it was a referendum of Obama?


And what about the Obama factor? President Obama campaigned for both the Democratic gubernatorial candidates, even visiting New Jersey as recently as Sunday to stump for Jon Corzine.

Still, majorities of voters in both states (56 percent in Virginia and 60 percent in New Jersey) said President Obama was not a factor in their vote today. Those who said Mr. Obama was a factor in New Jersey divided as to whether their vote was a vote for the president (19 percent) or against him (19 percent). In Virginia, slightly fewer voters said their vote was for Mr. Obama (17 percent) than against him (24 percent).

Among Corzine supporters in New Jersey, 38 percent said one reason for their vote was to express support for Mr. Obama, while 39 percent of Christie voters said it was to express opposition to Mr. Obama.

You are just making up that it was about Obama, because that's the fantasy you wish was reality. For the rest of us who would like to look at actual information and data we see that you are dead wrong.

[Bandwagoner]

Democrats have captured the 23rd Congressional District in New York.

CNN and Fox News called the race for Democrat Bill Owens, making him the first Democrat to hold the upstate New York seat since the Civil War.
How can you guys tell this. Seems like they redistrict it every 5 years. Just curious what this is based on, counties?

[leroy]

MoJo's partly right on this.

Ultimately Hoffman caused the district to flip by splitting the vote. Palin just went rogue and endorsed him. I think her effect may have tipped the scales, as that was probably what pushed DeDe into endorsing Owens.

Just getting in on the spin game to see what it must be like from the other side. It's actually kind of fun.

[rimrocker]

Bill Owens ran against the public option, by the way, so he is not expected to be of any help to the Dems on that score.


Bill Owens speaking on the House HCR Bill during an October 29 debate...

“I think moving towards this legislation is very appropriate. I think the type or the form of the public option included in this bill is reasonable. It is not one that allows people to move to the government option if they already have health insurance overage. So it’s not going to control a significant segment of the population.”

http://news.firedoglake.com/2009/10/29/ny-23-owens-endorses-public-option-in-only-televised-debate/

[FranchiseBlade]

Bill Owens speaking on the House HCR Bill during an October 29 debate...

“I think moving towards this legislation is very appropriate. I think the type or the form of the public option included in this bill is reasonable. It is not one that allows people to move to the government option if they already have health insurance overage. So it’s not going to control a significant segment of the population.”

http://news.firedoglake.com/2009/10/29/ny-23-owens-endorses-public-option-in-only-televised-debate/
Sweet. Looks like more good news for The Health Care Reform bill.

[twhy77]

Saw this and thought of you guys:

http://volokh.com/2009/11/04/four-obvious-lessons-from-tonights-elections/


Four Obvious Lessons from Tonight’s Elections

Orin Kerr • November 4, 2009 12:41 am

I think there are four obvious lessons to draw from tonight’s election returns:

1. For Conservative Republicans: The America people reject Barack Obama and obviously want true conservative leadership. The Governorships of two states have switched to the “R” category, showing a grassroots conservative movement that is alive and well.

2. For Moderate Republicans: The American people obviously want old-fashioned economic conservatives who are moderate on social issues. McDonnell in Virginia and Christie in New Jersey won by downplaying social issues; Hoffman in New York-23 lost because he was too extreme.

3. For Moderate Democrats: The party out of power usually does well in off-year elections like this, and this year was no exception. But obviously there is no sign of any substantial shift in public opinion from the election of 2008.

4. For Liberal Democrats: NY-23 was the race to watch this year, given that right-wing extremists like Palin and Beck threw all their support behind Hoffman. But the district voters rejected the right-wing candidate, sending a Democrat to Congress for the first time in one hundred years. Obviously this shows that the American people reject right-wing extremism.

Obviously.

[mc mark]

1. For Conservative Republicans: The America people reject Barack Obama and obviously want true conservative leadership.

This has been proven to be false: all exit polls from both VA and NJ show support for the president has held steady and in some cases actually risen. The polls also show that Obama was 3rd or lower when asked what issues brought them to the polls.

[Batman Jones]

This has been proven to be false: all exit polls from both VA and NJ show support for the president has held steady and in some cases actually risen. The polls also show that Obama was 3rd or lower when asked what issues brought them to the polls.

Further, of the ones that said Obama was a factor in their vote (very few), as many said they were voting to support Obama as said they were voting to oppose him. This is an utterly false meme.

[basso]

Further, of the ones that said Obama was a factor in their vote (very few), as many said they were voting to support Obama as said they were voting to oppose him. This is an utterly false meme.

keep ****in' that chicken- it still won't turn into a rooster.

[Batman Jones]

keep ****in' that chicken- it still won't turn into a rooster.

Hey basso, are we still going to be surprised in ways we can't understand in 2010/12 as a result of Hoffman's victory?

[bigtexxx]

Saw this and thought of you guys:

http://volokh.com/2009/11/04/four-obvious-lessons-from-tonights-elections/


Four Obvious Lessons from Tonight’s Elections

Orin Kerr • November 4, 2009 12:41 am

I think there are four obvious lessons to draw from tonight’s election returns:

1. For Conservative Republicans: The America people reject Barack Obama and obviously want true conservative leadership. The Governorships of two states have switched to the “R” category, showing a grassroots conservative movement that is alive and well.

2. For Moderate Republicans: The American people obviously want old-fashioned economic conservatives who are moderate on social issues. McDonnell in Virginia and Christie in New Jersey won by downplaying social issues; Hoffman in New York-23 lost because he was too extreme.

3. For Moderate Democrats: The party out of power usually does well in off-year elections like this, and this year was no exception. But obviously there is no sign of any substantial shift in public opinion from the election of 2008.

4. For Liberal Democrats: NY-23 was the race to watch this year, given that right-wing extremists like Palin and Beck threw all their support behind Hoffman. But the district voters rejected the right-wing candidate, sending a Democrat to Congress for the first time in one hundred years. Obviously this shows that the American people reject right-wing extremism.

Obviously.

Great post. Seriously, the only idiot that is spouting off #4 is Kos.

[basso]

Hey basso, are we still going to be surprised in ways we can't understand in 2010/12 as a result of Hoffman's victory?

i suspect you will.

[Batman Jones]

i suspect you will.

LMAO.

[twhy77]

Hilarious, I post a piece on how every person thinks their party was victorious last night which completely spoofs both sides, and right away both sides come in and point out the good things they see in the post for their side only. Awesome. Full of win.

[FranchiseBlade]

keep ****in' that chicken- it still won't turn into a rooster.
Keep making claims that aren't backed up by any data, even when the data shows the exact opposite of what you are claiming. It won't turn into a rooster or a logical fact based, valid point.

[mc mark]

Keep making claims that aren't backed up by any data, even when the data shows the exact opposite of what you are claiming.


reality has a liberal bias for basso

[Rocketman95]

keep ****in' that chicken- it still won't turn into a rooster.

keep puttin' lipstick on that pig, she's still going to be a dip**** ex-beauty queen wannabe outta her league.

[twhy77]

Wow, the personal insults have upped a notch since I stopped visiting so regularly.

You guys all suck and hate your wives and kids.

That should catch me up to speed.

[rimrocker]

keep ****in' that chicken- it still won't turn into a rooster.

WTH? Why would BJ want to screw a chicken? Furthermore, why would he want to screw a chicken and have it turn into a rooster? Your post makes no sense, even as some folksy saying, unless one wants to delve into issues like latency, projection, and transference, and that's too strange for me to take on this afternoon.

[basso]

WTH? Why would BJ want to screw a chicken? Furthermore, why would he want to screw a chicken and have it turn into a rooster? Your post makes no sense, even as some folksy saying, unless one wants to delve into issues like latency, projection, and transference, and that's too strange for me to take on this afternoon.

you haven't been paying attention.

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[GladiatoRowdy]

WTH? Why would BJ want to screw a chicken? Furthermore, why would he want to screw a chicken and have it turn into a rooster? Your post makes no sense, even as some folksy saying, unless one wants to delve into issues like latency, projection, and transference, and that's too strange for me to take on this afternoon.

I'm pretty sure he's riffing on the anchor who used that phrase in a newscast...

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[Batman Jones]

you haven't been paying attention.

And that illuminates your bizarre post... not at all.

Then again, I'm used to you not making any sense.

[Batman Jones]

i suspect you will.

So you suspect we will be surprised due to the aftermath of Hoffman's victory which, in case you didn't notice, didn't happen. Yeah, that's about par for the course.

[rimrocker]

you haven't been paying attention.


Can't see it, but I think I remember this... he didn't say anything about a rooster did he? The rooster bit was your add-on right?

I think my post stands in spite of your lame-o attempt at trying to pass off a bizarre post as some wry play on a viral youtube clip.

[MojoMan]

Wow, the personal insults have upped a notch since I stopped visiting so regularly.

You guys all suck and hate your wives and kids.

That should catch me up to speed.

For a number of the posters in this forum, that is apparently what passes for debate and discussion.

It is like watching a couple of punk kids that are mad at each other screaming F.U. at each other again and again in lieu of an actual fight.

In fact, some of these posters truly may not have anything else to add to the conversation. So they have a choice between name calling and personal attacks, or quietly lurking out of site.

That makes me think of a poster I rember seeing quite a few years ago:

"Better to keep you mouth closed and appear stupid,
Than to open your mouth and remove the doubt."

In any case, this is obviously not how a person who has class and intellect behaves. Quite the opposite.

[rocketsjudoka]

I don't think there is too much to be taken away from yesterday's elections. Voter turnout was down and Republicans capitalized in Virginia, Corzine, saddled with a bad economy and a corruption, lost a narrow election and in NY 23 disunity among Republicans led to a Democrat winning.

None of these, other than low voter turnout, strike me as much of a sign of a trend and even the low voter turnout would be indicative of an odd year election.

[basso]

Can't see it, but I think I remember this... he didn't say anything about a rooster did he? The rooster bit was your add-on right?

I think my post stands in spite of your lame-o attempt at trying to pass off a bizarre post as some wry play on a viral youtube clip.

it was a playful jeu de mot, mais, je ne suis pas surpris que tu ne comprends pas.

[Batman Jones]

it was a playful jeu de mot, mais, je ne suis pas surpris que tu ne comprends pas.

Everybody understands what you were trying to do, you dandy. They just all agree you failed at it.

[A_3PO]

I don't think there is too much to be taken away from yesterday's elections. Voter turnout was down and Republicans capitalized in Virginia, Corzine, saddled with a bad economy and a corruption, lost a narrow election and in NY 23 disunity among Republicans led to a Democrat winning.

None of these, other than low voter turnout, strike me as much of a sign of a trend and even the low voter turnout would be indicative of an odd year election.
Agree with you. People who read a lot into yesterday's election are either deluded or just wishful thinking.

[basso]

Everybody understands what you were trying to do, you dandy. They just all agree you failed at it.

Sarah Palin, and the good Conservatives of NY-23 all got it.

[Batman Jones]

Sarah Palin, and the good Conservatives of NY-23 all got it.

Yes, and contrary to your assurances they all lost too.

[mc mark]

Sarah Palin, and the good Conservatives of NY-23 all got it.


so lets recap

VA gov race - R candidate tells Sarah to stay away - Win for R
NJ gov race - see VA
NY23 - Sarah campaigns for Independent candidate - Loss

what does this tell us?

[Batman Jones]

It cracks me up how basso's favorite Republicans are among the most unpopular, failed politicians around: He still likes Palin best of all, he was all over endorsing Steele, he's acting like Hoffman won and he's one of the few R's around that hasn't disowned Bush/Cheney. Talk about a fantasy world.

[Codman]

It cracks me up how basso's favorite Republicans are among the most unpopular, failed politicians around: He still likes Palin best of all, he was all over endorsing Steele, he's acting like Hoffman won and he's one of the few R's around that hasn't disowned Bush/Cheney. Talk about a fantasy world.

Well, he's got nothing else left to hold on to, right? :)

[basso]

Well, he's got nothing else left to hold on to, right? :)

i made short ribs tonight, and opened a nice cote rotie. i'm holding on just fine.

[SamFisher]

It cracks me up how basso's favorite Republicans are among the most unpopular, failed politicians around: He still likes Palin best of all, he was all over endorsing Steele, he's acting like Hoffman won and he's one of the few R's around that hasn't disowned Bush/Cheney. Talk about a fantasy world.

The full frontal embrace of hoffman is this year's commemorative basso election FAIL - I guess he thinks it pisses us off.

Oh, it sure does piss me off to see basso line up with a nitwit empty suit who got pushed to the forefront of the republican ticket of some upstate craphole because Rush, Palin etc didn't like the moderate republican's stance on gay marriage/abortion etc - who then promptly got spanked in the general election in a district that has been solid republican for the 137 straight years since Ulysses S. Grant was re-elected.

let me tell you that I am really rankled. I just came back from vacation yesterday, and now I am rankled to the core. All of it has been undone. :(

[basso]

The full frontal embrace of hoffman is this year's commemorative basso election FAIL - I guess he thinks it pisses us off.

Oh, it sure does piss me off to see basso line up with a nitwit empty suit who got pushed to the forefront of the republican ticket of some upstate craphole because Rush, Palin etc didn't like the moderate republican's stance on gay marriage/abortion etc - who then promptly got spanked in the general election in a district that has been solid republican for the 137 straight years since Ulysses S. Grant was re-elected.

let me tell you that I am really rankled. I just came back from vacation yesterday, and now I am rankled to the core. All of it has been undone. :(

man up, sam.

[MojoMan]

http://media.townhall.com/Townhall/Car/b/sk1105j20091105033000.jpg

[mc mark]

What oh what will the crazies do when the big O signs healthcare legislation into law!?!?!

:D

[MojoMan]

What oh what will the crazies do when the big O signs healthcare legislation into law!?!?!

:D

I am glad to see that you referred to the bill as "healthcare legislation" rather than "healthcare reform". It is an important distinction that you got exactly right.

[basso]

http://media.townhall.com/Townhall/Car/b/sk1105j20091105033000.jpg

i don't think anybody in DC is getting fomtotable....