Potential Swine Flu Pandemic

[rimrocker]

Hard to dismiss a mortality rate of 62 out of 800. This may sound alarmist, but everyone should start making some plans now and be prepared as best you can. Mrs. rimrocker used to work at CDC and she is quite upset over this one... according to MSNBC this morning, it's a combo of swine, bird, and human flu which has scientists "concerned."

Swine Flu Could Cause Pandemic, WHO Says

By Rob Stein
Washington Post Staff Writer
Saturday, April 25, 2009 11:08 AM
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/04/25/AR2009042501335_pf.html

The swine flu virus that is responsible for an outbreak in Mexico and has been detected in the southwestern United States has the potential to cause a pandemic, a top international health official said today.

"It has pandemic potential," Margaret Chan, the director-general of the World Health Organization, told reporters during a telephone briefing. "It is infecting people."

Chan held the briefing after cutting short a trip to the United States so she could rush back to the WHO's headquarters in Geneva to convene an emergency meeting of special experts to decide what steps should be taken to contain the virus. It is the first time the committee has been called upon since it was created two years ago to handle disease outbreaks.

"The situation is evolving quickly," Chan said. "We do not yet have a complete picture of the epidemiology or the risk, including possible spread beyond the currently affected areas. Nonetheless, in the assessment of WHO this is serious situation that must be watched very carefully."

The WHO could recommend declaring an international public health emergency, which could have major global implications on travel and trade. It could also raise its "pandemic alert level," which is currently at level three. That level means very limited spread of virus from person to person.

"These will be important questions addressed by the advisory committee," she said.

Chan noted that no outbreaks have been reported elsewhere, but the agency was advising countries to heighten their efforts to search for any signs the virus was spreading.

"It has pandemic potential because it is infecting people. However we cannot say on the basis of currently available laboratory, epidemiologic and clinical evidence whether or not it will indeed cause a pandemic," Chan said.

More than 800 cases and at least 62 deaths have been reported in Mexico, with most of the cases occurring in the country's sprawling capital of Mexico City. But cases have been reported elsewhere in the country, and at least eight cases have been found in California and Texas near the Mexican border.

Although the U.S. cases have been mostly relatively mild, the outbreak in Mexico appears to be striking young, healthy adults, conjuring images of the devastating 1918 Spanish flu pandemic. But the WHO has dispatched a team of experts to assist Mexican authorities, who have shut down schools, museums, libraries and advised residents to stay home.

[rimrocker]

Here's the MSNBC story...

Health chief: Swine flu has 'pandemic potential'
Never-before-seen mixture of swine, human and avian viruses kills up to 68
msnbc.com news services
updated 8:52 a.m. PT, Sat., April 25, 2009

MEXICO CITY - A deadly new swine flu strain that has killed at least 20 people in Mexico City and sickened more than 1,000 has "pandemic potential," the World Health Organization chief said Saturday — but some fear it may be too late to contain the outbreak.

With 24 new suspected cases of the swine flu reported Saturday, Mexico City said schools would remain closed and all public events suspended until further notice — including more than 500 concerts, sporting events and other gatherings including the popular weekly bicycle rides on streets closed to traffic.

A hotline set up the previous day fielded 2,366 calls from frightened city residents who suspected they might have the disease. City Health Secretary Armando Ahued said 10 new possible cases of infection have been discovered in the metropolis of 20 million people.

Officials say more than 1,000 people have been infected nationwide. Tests show 20 people have died of the swine flu, and 48 other deaths were probably due to the same strain.

'Pandemic potential'
This virus is a mix of human, pig and bird strains that has epidemiologists around the world deeply concerned. The World Health Organization convened in Geneva Saturday to consider whether to declare an international public health emergency — a step that could lead to travel advisories, trade restrictions and border closures.

The outbreak involves "an animal strain of the H1N1 virus, and it has pandemic potential," director general Margaret Chan said, adding that it is too early to say whether a pandemic will actually occur.

The CDC and Canadian health officials were studying samples sent from Mexico, and some governments in Asia and Latin America began monitoring passengers arriving on flights from Mexico.

Mexico City Mayor Marcelo Ebrard announced on Saturday the cancellation of all public events for 10 days.

But it may be too late to contain the outbreak, given how widespread the known cases are. If the confirmed deaths are the first signs of a pandemic, then cases are probably incubating around the world by now, said Dr. Michael Osterholm, a pandemic flu expert at the University of Minnesota.

The same virus also sickened at least eight people in Texas and California, though there have been no deaths north of the border, puzzling experts at the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

No vaccine specifically protects against swine flu, and it is unclear how much protection current human flu vaccines might offer.

Avoid kissing
The fact most of the dead were aged between 25 and 45 was seen as a worrying sign linked to pandemics, as seasonal flu tends to be more deadly among the elderly and the very young.

Speaking on the evening television news, Health Minister Jose Angel Cordova encouraged people in Mexico to avoid crowds and wear face masks, noting there was no guarantee that going to get a flu vaccine would help against the new strain.

"We realize the seriousness of this problem," Mexican President Felipe Calderon told health officials on Friday.

In California, Dr. Gil Chavez, director of the Center for Infectious Diseases at the California Department of Public Health and the state's chief epidemiologist, said many more cases could come to light as patients are tested. "The more we look the more we are likely to find," he said.

New York City health officials said that testing was under way on 75 students at a Queens high school who have fallen ill with flu-like symptoms.

The Health Department's Dr. Don Weiss said Friday that agency doctors and investigators were dispatched to the private St. Francis Preparatory School the previous day after students reported fever, sore throat, cough, aches and pains. No one has been hospitalized. Results could take several days.

The U.S. government said it was taking the situation seriously and monitoring for any new developments.

As far away as Hong Kong — the epicenter of the 2003 SARS epidemic and especially vigilant to any threat of infectious disease — the government's Center for Health Protection said it was closely monitoring investigations in the United States and would analyze flu samples in the territory.

Taking precautions, measures
Cordova said Mexico had 1 million doses of antiviral medicine, easily enough to treat the cases reported so far.

In Mexico City, a crowded metropolis of 20 million people, soldiers handed out surgical masks and the government warned people to avoid close physical contact and sharing food.

Finnish rock band The Rasmus canceled a Mexico City concert and the Mexican Football Federation said two weekend soccer matches would be played with no spectators present as a precaution.

DVD rental stores said customers poured in to rent movies on Friday night so they could huddle inside for the weekend.

The last flu pandemic was in 1968 when "Hong Kong" flu killed about a million people globally.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/30398682/

[Uprising]

One more reason NOT to go to Mexico.

[B-Bob]

will javelina carry this? ... am soon headed to West TX...

[Azadre]

The good news is that flu season is coming to an end, so any cases of this will be much more obvious. I suspect this will not be too bad in the end.

[rocketsregle]

One more reason NOT to go to Mexico.

It's already in the U.S with cases of it in California and Texas. I heard in the news that there were two 16 year old boys near San Antonio who got it and survived. They said the troubling part about it was that they did not travel to Mexico and don't know how they got it.

[Azadre]

It's already in the U.S with cases of it in California and Texas. I heard in the news that there were two 16 year old boys near San Antonio who got it and survived. They said the troubling part about it was that they did not travel to Mexico and don't know how they got it.
It is believed that it evolved human to human transmission.

[KingCheetah]

This flu really got my attention when Mexico City shut down all major public activities -- i'm trying to remember when i've ever heard of that before for a virus.

[Azadre]

This flu really got my attention when Mexico City shut down all major public activities -- i'm trying to remember when i've ever heard of that before for a virus.
This is their first real virus, kc.

[ymc]

8 cases in NYC now

http://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2009/04/25/nyregion/flu-newyork-tests.html?hpw

If it grows to about 1000 cases, the economy of the city can be in severe recession. Check out the experience of Hong Kong, Singapore during SARS

[Major]

2 confirmed cases in Kansas too.

[IROC it]

The good news is that flu season is coming to an end, so any cases of this will be much more obvious. I suspect this will not be too bad in the end.


Unless you're using John Wayne toilet paper. :D

[raheel1560]

As a Muslim, do you think I will get in trouble if I get Swine Flu?? We dont dig on swine

[aghast]

...the outbreak in Mexico appears to be striking young, healthy adults, conjuring images of the devastating 1918 Spanish flu pandemic. But the WHO has dispatched a team of experts to assist Mexican authorities, who have shut down schools, museums, libraries and advised residents to stay home.

That part is truly frightening. The Great Influenza (http://search.barnesandnoble.com/The-Great-Influenza/John-M-Barry/e/9780143036494/?itm=1), about the 1918 flu, reads like a grand scale horror novel. It details how quickly society ceases to function when only a few are infected; as fear of contamination and the actual illness spread, basic humanity breaks down. Why bring Kleenexes/groceries to an ill neighbor if there's a chance you might be infected? And it steamrolled communities throughout the US.

People with healthy immune systems were strangely the most vulnerable in that one, as normally appropriate immunological responses were overwhelmed, and proved lethal. 100 million, gone, in a matter of months.

"Every person who spits is helping the Kaiser." I think I'll go start building my fallout shelter now. Can the Obama-as-antichristers help me out with some pointers?

[rocketsjudoka]

I was reading about this earlier and planning on starting a thread but Rimrocker beat me to it.

There certainly is cause to worry but I'm not sure panic is in order. The CDC and WHO have been preparing for years for a possible pandemic. At the sametime reasonable precautions like being careful about spreading it are in order.

[WhoMikeJames]

Living in Houston doesn't help.

In Novelty Theory (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Novelty_theory) , there's a spike in April 2009... ;)

[Lady_Di]

This is scary, man! I have family in Mexico so that's not good.

My guy is currently down in the valley visiting his grandma and relatives who are visiting from Mexico.

If I don't post within next several weeks then you know I died from this. :(

Ok, I'm freaking out.

/end freaked out rant

[rocketsjudoka]

This is scary, man! I have family in Mexico so that's not good.

My guy is currently down in the valley visiting his grandma and relatives who are visiting from Mexico.

If I don't post within next several weeks then you know I died from this. :(

Ok, I'm freaking out.

/end freaked out rant

No need to get freaked out...




Yet..

[rox0607champs]

This is scary, man! I have family in Mexico so that's not good.

My guy is currently down in the valley visiting his grandma and relatives who are visiting from Mexico.

If I don't post within next several weeks then you know I died from this. :(

Ok, I'm freaking out.

/end freaked out rant
no joke i have family in several parts of mexico including the border towns....not good. i was just in mexico about a month and half ago. my sister decided to have her wedding in ixtapa, zihuatanejo to be exact. thats not to far from mexico city. im becoming pretty concerned.
what can be done though??? :(

[fmullegun]

Seriously we are drafting a guy from CHINA? Oh man this is gonna suck. Has anyone ever seen him play?

I didn't know they played bball in China.

[aghast]

There certainly is cause to worry but I'm not sure panic is in order. The CDC and WHO have been preparing for years for a possible pandemic. At the sametime reasonable precautions like being careful about spreading it are in order.

I'm not saying that this particular virus is a pandemic event, far from it, but I believe you're severely overestimating governments' capabilities to react to such viruses. If another influenza like the 1918 one came along, other than opening up the Tamiflu vault, the CDC wouldn't be able to do much for weeks, maybe months afterward. It spreads too quickly. Already, cases of this flu are showing up in places as far flung as San Diego, Texas, Kansas, NYC (Thanks, drunken spring-breakers and cheap flights to Mexico).

NY Times: Students Fall Ill in New York, and Swine Flu Is Likely Cause: (http://www.nytimes.com/2009/04/26/world/americas/26flu.html?hp)
C.D.C. scientists are working on a “seed strain” for a vaccine matched to the new swine flu, but warned that it would take many months before enough doses for all Americans are ready.

They are also creating test kits for 140 American labs and dozens of international ones to allow them to test for the new flu. Right now most labs can only exclude other flus, not confirm the new one.

In each year’s flu season, most deaths are in infants and the aged, none of the first ones in Mexico were in people over 60 or under 3 years old, a W.H.O. spokeswoman said. When a new virus emerges, deaths may occur in healthy adults who mount the strongest immune reactions. Their own defense — inflammation and leaking fluid in lung cells — can essentially drown them from inside.

There are various steps under the federal pandemic plan, including putting emergency rooms and first-responders on alert, making sure they have seasonal flu shots and putting them first in line for any early batches of a swine flu vaccine.

The 1918 “Spanish flu” pandemic came in waves — a first summertime one was mild, then a severe one hit the following winter. By some accounts, a third milder but still serious wave hit cities that had done the best jobs of protecting themselves from the second wave.

However, as experts note, in 1918 there was no Tamiflu, no antibiotics to fight pneumonia, and no powered ventilators.

By the time enough people are infected to warrant government response, it's usually too late for curfews/border closings to make much of a difference.

Seriously we are drafting a guy from CHINA? Oh man this is gonna suck. Has anyone ever seen him play?

I didn't know they played bball in China.

Crap: fever-induced delirium. That's one of the first symptoms. It's spreading.

[rimrocker]

If another influenza like the 1918 one came along, other than opening up the Tamiflu vault, the CDC wouldn't be able to do much for weeks, maybe months afterward. It spreads too quickly.

Mrs. rimrocker, who used to work at CDC, pretty much agrees.

[aghast]

That's not good news, rimrocker. I really wish I'd believed in UN black helicopters or hurricane preparedness before reading this and embarking upon my own panicky isolation/fallout shelter in the backyard.

Currently, my provisions consist of a giant can of reduced sodium chicken w/ noodle Campbells, three Coke Zero twenty-ouncers, and two (rapidly thawing) DiGiorno supremes. Surely this will last me through the ensuing months of civilization-ending bedlam.

I'm using the pizza slicer as my main digging implement. The groundbreaking went well, but so far not much headway has been made to match my sketches for a combined underground lair/ Howard Hughes germaphobe-hazmat panic room.

I was thinking of going to the Home Depot parking lot tomorrow morning to hire more-experienced construction foremen to oversee my labor, but, alas, we are all doomed.

[Kam]

Seriously we are drafting a guy from CHINA? Oh man this is gonna suck. Has anyone ever seen him play?

I didn't know they played bball in China.


Think you're in the wrong thread.






My coworker was sick on Friday. Remind me to stay away from her on Monday.

[Shroopy2]

11 California cases now, up from 8. So glad its "only" 2 hours away from me.

Good writeup on it here. Not that reading about this is any fun...
http://www.upmc-cbn.org/report_archive/2009/04_April_2009/cbnreport_04242009.html

So basically cuz current vaccines wont work, just gotta hope u dont get it. Not like there isnt too much to worry about in the world already,... Wash those hands and get a gas mask!

[arkoe]

That's not good news, rimrocker. I really wish I'd believed in UN black helicopters or hurricane preparedness before reading this and embarking upon my own panicky isolation/fallout shelter in the backyard.

Currently, my provisions consist of a giant can of reduced sodium chicken w/ noodle Campbells, three Coke Zero twenty-ouncers, and two (rapidly thawing) DiGiorno supremes. Surely this will last me through the ensuing months of civilization-ending bedlam.

I'm using the pizza slicer as my main digging implement. The groundbreaking went well, but so far not much headway has been made to match my sketches for a combined underground lair/ Howard Hughes germaphobe-hazmat panic room.

I was thinking of going to the Home Depot parking lot tomorrow morning to hire more-experienced construction foremen to oversee my labor, but, alas, we are all doomed.

*arkoe is prepared to rebuild society.

http://i3.photobucket.com/albums/y56/aarkoe/preview_image_thumbnail.jpg

[Invisible Fan]

Hard to dismiss a mortality rate of 62 out of 800. This may sound alarmist, but everyone should start making some plans now and be prepared as best you can. Mrs. rimrocker used to work at CDC and she is quite upset over this one... according to MSNBC this morning, it's a combo of swine, bird, and human flu which has scientists "concerned."

How would one prepare for something like this?

[rimrocker]

How would one prepare for something like this?

Simple stuff really... stock up on food and water, masks and gloves... and be prepared to wait it out at home.

Might not hurt to plan to gather the family in one place... for instance, if an uncle has an isolated farm or something.

Really, just be as preventive as you can and communicate with those that are important to you.

[aghast]

... Wash those hands and get a gas mask!

Generalized question for any doctors/nurses out there: I remember during the SARS outbreak reporting on the ridiculousness of people wearing cloth masks around, as the SARS virus could pass easily through the pores of such masks (eg Slate's Explainer (http://www.slate.com/?id=2081235)). They were largely placebo, like breathing in flower petals during the Black Death.

It's been quite awhile since I've taken microbiology. (My google search turned up this (http://www.cdc.gov/eid/content/15/2/233.htm) on the CDC; the abstract seems to indicate they're better than nothing.) Am I correct in assuming the relative merits of masks such as these to prevent influenza (soon to be the hottest fashion trend on the streets of Houston, I presume) are similarly for naught?

http://graphics8.nytimes.com/images/2009/04/25/world/25mexicoA_xl.jpg
http://media.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/photo/homepage/hp4-25-09e.jpg
http://media3.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/photo/2009/04/25/PH2009042503130.jpg

Also, nothing says, "Uh oh. Better stop joking; this might be serious," quite like nuns dressed up in their death habits.

[aghast]

It's spread to New Zealand, of all places. "Minister: 10 NZ students 'likely' have swine flu" (http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/04/26/AR2009042600163.html?hpid=artslot). From Mexico City to Auckland. Speaking of frequent flier points, what a world.

Elsewhere, in the same Washington Post section, and seemingly given the same importance, "New Delhi Suffering From Major Case of Puppy Love (http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/04/25/AR2009042502818.html?nav=hcmoduletmv)." So, if H1N1 flu doesn't get you, Bo the Dog will.

[farrisdabis]

So, any conspiracy theorists in here think that this is a weaponized strain or whatever? Alex Jones (Yeah, I know) is all over this and doing emergency broadcasts saying this is all planned out.

[Mr. Clutch]

I hope this doesn't cause people to turn into zombies.

[Northside Storm]

I hope this doesn't cause people to turn into zombies.

Finally, my $49.99 investment might pay off!

http://potinhodexp.files.wordpress.com/2009/02/funny-pictures-zombie-survival-kit-1cs.jpg

[Yonkers]

My wife is a nurse and she said they might have a case at their hospital. Not confirmed yet but still very scary.

[Fatty FatBastard]

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[Major]

It's spread to New Zealand, of all places. "Minister: 10 NZ students 'likely' have swine flu" (http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/04/26/AR2009042600163.html?hpid=artslot). From Mexico City to Auckland. Speaking of frequent flier points, what a world.

This is the scary part. This is the first potential pandemic type thing we've had (as far as I know) since there has been real commercial air travel. So while our techonologies to fight something like the Spanish Flu are much greater, the ability to quarantine it is virtually gone.

[KingCheetah]

http://i43.tinypic.com/2lc7b6r.jpg

[rocketsjudoka]

I'm not saying that this particular virus is a pandemic event, far from it, but I believe you're severely overestimating governments' capabilities to react to such viruses. If another influenza like the 1918 one came along, other than opening up the Tamiflu vault, the CDC wouldn't be able to do much for weeks, maybe months afterward. It spreads too quickly. Already, cases of this flu are showing up in places as far flung as San Diego, Texas, Kansas, NYC (Thanks, drunken spring-breakers and cheap flights to Mexico).

NY Times: Students Fall Ill in New York, and Swine Flu Is Likely Cause: (http://www.nytimes.com/2009/04/26/world/americas/26flu.html?hp)


By the time enough people are infected to warrant government response, it's usually too late for curfews/border closings to make much of a difference.



Crap: fever-induced delirium. That's one of the first symptoms. It's spreading.

I don't believe the CDC and WHO are going to be able to stop a full blown pandemic but I don't think they are just sitting by twiddling their thumbs either. Unreasonable panic though especially painting doomsday scenarios where we as individuals have to run to the hills, or worse, start hoarding medical supplies like Tamiflu aren't going to help combat a pandemic.

I think swine flu is something to be worried about but on the scale of worry Brandon Roy going for another 42 points tonight is a bigger worry.

[CrazyDave]

I don't believe the CDC and WHO are going to be able to stop a full blown pandemic but I don't think they are just sitting by twiddling their thumbs either. Unreasonable panic though especially painting doomsday scenarios where we as individuals have to run to the hills, or worse, start hoarding medical supplies like Tamiflu aren't going to help combat a pandemic.

I think swine flu is something to be worried about but on the scale of worry Brandon Roy going for another 42 points tonight is a bigger worry.

Well, good... because I don't see there being a reason to panic about either just yet.

That said, I'm supposed to be going to Cancun in late june :eek:

[wreck]

i have family in mexico city which seems to be the main one hit. its kind of eerie how in that city they're playing soccer games with no fans because they dont want it to spread.

[halfbreed]

I've been sick for a week now. Does this mean I'm going to die?

:(

[Yak]

I've been sick for a week now. Does this mean I'm going to die?

:(

Most likely yes.

;)

[halfbreed]

Most likely yes.

;)

I guess I should sell my clutchfans account. I wonder if there's anyone in vtexas' 4th period who needs it.

[rocketsjudoka]

OK maybe it might be time for a little alarm.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/30398682

U.S. declares swine flu public health emergency
20 cases have been confirmed so far in the U.S.; up to 81 killed in Mexico

Government officials have declared a public health emergency in connection with the swine flu outbreak that has killed dozens in Mexico and sickened 20 in the U.S., said the nation’s director of Homeland Security said Sunday.

Janet Napolitano also said border patrol agents have been directed to begin passive surveillance of travelers from Mexico, with instructions to isolate anyone who appears actively ill with suspected influenza.

The number of cases confirmed in the United States by the federal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is now 20, including eight New York City high school students. Other cases are in Ohio, California, Texas and Kansas. Patients have ranged in age from 9 to over 50.

“As we look for swine flu, we are seeing more cases of swine flu and we expect to see more cases of swine flu," said Dr. Richard Besser, acting director of the CDC, during a White House press conference Sunday. "We view this more as a marathon."

Napolitano said the emergency declaration is a warning, not an actual imminent emergency, similar to preparing for a hurricane.

"I wish we could call it a declaration of emergency preparedness,” Napolitano said.

Besser noted that compared to cases in Mexico, “what we’re seeing in this country is mild disease,” nothing that the U.S. cases would not have been detected without increased surveillance.

“The real important take away is that we have an outbreak of a new infectious disease that we’re addressing aggressively,” Besser said. He said he still can’t say why cases in U.S. are so much milder than the deadly cases in Mexico where up to 81 have died and more than 1,300 have been sickened since April 13.

The incubation period for this virus is 24 to 48 hour period. President Barack Obama recently traveled to Mexico but the president’s health was never in any danger, said John Brennan, Assistant to the President for Homeland Security.

President Barack Obama has received regular briefings from advisers on the swine flu outbreak and the White House readied guidance for Americans.

“The government can’t solve this alone, we need everybody to take some responsibility,” Napolitano said.

Besser urged Americans to practice frequent handwashing and to stay home if they feel sick. “If your children are sick, have a fever and flu-like illness, they shouldn’t go to school.”


The U.S. will begin screening travelers at the nation’s borders and isolating people who are actively ill with suspected influenza, the director of Homeland Security said today. No travel restrictions are issued currently, but that could change, she said.

Napolitano said she’d ordered border officials to start passive surveillance protocols to screen people at U.S. borders. asking "Are you sick? Have you been sick?"

Health officials said the facts of the outbreak don’t yet warrant testing or quarantine of travelers from Mexico, but that that could change if the situation gets worse.


Officials said Sunday they are considering whether to begin manufacture of a vaccine.

“At this point, there is not a vaccine for this swine flu strain,” Besser said.

Deaths in Mexico
Symptoms in the New York cases have been mild, said New York City Health Commissioner Thomas Frieden. New York health officials said more than 100 students at the St. Francis Preparatory School, in Queens, recently began suffering a fever, sore throat and aches and pains. Some of their relatives also have been ill.

Some St. Francis students had recently traveled to Mexico, The New York Times and New York Post reported Sunday.

The World Health Organization chief said Saturday that the strain has "pandemic potential," and it might be too late to contain a sudden outbreak.

Monitoring possible cases
State infectious-diseases, epidemiology and disaster preparedness workers have been dispatched to monitor and respond to possible cases of the flu. Gov. David Paterson said 1,500 treatment courses of the antiviral Tamiflu had been sent to New York City.

The city health department has asked doctors to be extra vigilant and test patients who have flu symptoms and have traveled recently to California, Texas or Mexico.

Investigators also were testing children who fell ill at a day care center in the Bronx. Two families in Manhattan also have contacted the city, saying they had recently returned ill from Mexico with flu symptoms, Frieden said.

Frieden said New Yorkers having trouble breathing due to an undiagnosed respiratory illness should seek treatment but shouldn't become overly alarmed. Medical facilities near St. Francis Prep have already been flooded with people overreacting to the outbreak, he said.

Kansas health officials said Saturday that they had confirmed swine flu in a married couple living in the central part of the state after the husband visited Mexico. The couple, who live in Dickinson County, weren't hospitalized, and the state described their illnesses as mild.

"Fortunately, the man and woman understand the gravity of the situation and are very willing to isolate themselves," said Dr. Jason Eberhart-Phillips, the state health officer.

Swine flu is a respiratory disease of pigs caused by type A flu viruses, the CDC's Web site says. Human cases are uncommon but can occur in people who are around pigs. It also can be spread from person to person. Symptoms include a high fever, body aches, coughing, sore throat and respiratory congestion.

No immunity
Health officials are concerned because people appear to have no immunity to the virus, a combination of bird, swine and human influenzas. The virus also presents itself like other swine flus, but none of the U.S. cases appear to involve direct contact with pigs, Eberhart-Phillips said.

[Hoee Ass]

Yeah, this is pretty scary.

[Space Ghost]

OK maybe it might be time for a little alarm.


President Barack Obama has received regular briefings from advisers on the swine flu outbreak and the White House readied guidance for Americans.

“The government can’t solve this alone, we need everybody to take some responsibility,” Napolitano said.

A first! Something Obama can't same me from.

Human cases are uncommon but can occur in people who are around pigs.

Houstonians are in big trouble.

[pgabriel]

did the 1918 flu really kill 20-100 million people? I had never even heard of it

[ChrisBosh]

It's arrived in Canada. Don't think people should overreact to this, the health authorities havn't even had a chance to study it in detail.




http://www.healthzone.ca/health/article/624655


Swine flu confirmed in Canada

Authorities to hold a press conference this afternoon
April 26, 2009

Comments on this story (9)

STAR WIRE SERVICES


Canada’s first cases of swine flu have come to light, at different ends of the country.

Health authorities in Nova Scotia are confirming four cases of swine flu in the province.

The province’s public health officer, Dr. Robert Strang, says the four infected people in Windsor, N.S., are recovering from the illness.
All of them had what he describes as “mild” cases of the flu.

Sources say British Columbia has found a pair of cases but it is not yet clear if they have a link to Mexico.

No information was immediately available on the health of the cases.

Foreign Minister Lawrence Cannon told CTV the federal cabinet has set up an operations committee and has been monitoring the situation closely.

Foreign Affairs has posted information on its website on the health situation in Mexico but is not telling Canadians to stay away from the country.

Federal authorities will hold a news conference later this afternoon.

Around the world, countries planned quarantines, tightened rules on pork imports and tested airline passengers for fevers as global health officials tried Sunday to come up with uniform ways to battle a deadly strain of swine flu. Nations from New Zealand to France reported new suspected cases.

World Health Organization Director-General Margaret Chan held teleconferences with staff and flu experts around the world but stopped short of recommending specific measures to stop the disease, urging governments to step up their surveillance of suspicious outbreaks.

Governments including China, Russia and Taiwan began planning to put anyone with symptoms of the deadly virus under quarantine.

Others were increasing their screening of pigs and pork imports from the Americas or banning them outright despite health officials’ reassurances that it was safe to eat thoroughly cooked pork.

Some nations issued travel warnings for Mexico.

Chan called the outbreak a public health emergency of “pandemic potential” because the virus can pass from human to human.

Her agency was considering whether to issue nonbinding recommendations on travel and trade restrictions, and even border closures. It is up to governments to decide whether to follow the advice.

“Countries are encouraged to do anything that they feel would be a precautionary measure,” WHO spokeswoman Aphaluck Bhatiasevi said. “All countries need to enhance their monitoring.’’

New Zealand said that 10 students who took a school trip to Mexico “likely” had swine flu. Israel said a man who had recently visited Mexico had been hospitalized while authorities try to determine whether he had the disease. French Health Ministry officials said four possible cases of swine flu are currently under investigation, including a family of three in the northern Nord region and a woman in the Paris region. The four recently returned from Mexico. Tests on two separate cases of suspected swine flu proved negative, they said.

Spain’s Health Ministry said three people who just returned from Mexico were under observation in hospitals in the northern Basque region, in southeastern Albacete and the Mediterranean port city of Valencia.

Mexico closed schools, museums, libraries and theatres in a bid to contain the outbreak after hundreds were sickened there. In the U.S., there have been at least 11 confirmed cases of swine flu in California, Texas and Kansas. Patients have ranged in age from 9 to over 50. At least two were hospitalized. All recovered or are recovering.

New York health officials said more than 100 students at the St. Francis Preparatory School, in Queens, recently began suffering a fever, sore throat and aches and pains. Some of their relatives also have been ill.

Some St. Francis students had recently traveled to Mexico, The New York Times and New York Post reported Sunday. Preliminary tests of samples taken from sick students’ noses and throats confirmed that at least eight had a non-human strain of influenza type A, indicating probable cases of swine flu, city health officials said. The exact subtypes were still unknown, and the federal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention was conducting further tests.

Hong Kong and Taiwan said visitors who came back from flu-affected areas with fevers would be quarantined. China said anyone experiencing flu-like symptoms within two weeks of arrival an affected area had to report to authorities. A Russian health agency said any passenger from North America running a fever would be quarantined until cause of the fever is determined.

Tokyo’s Narita airport installed a device to test the temperatures of passengers arriving from Mexico.

Indonesia increased surveillance at all entry points for travelers with flu-like symptoms — using devices at airports that were put in place years ago to monitor for severe acute respiratory syndrome, or SARS, and bird flu. It said it was ready to quarantine suspected victims if necessary.

Hong Kong and South Korea warned against travel to the Mexican capital and three affected provinces. Italy’s health ministry also advised citizens to postpone travel to affected areas.

Symptoms of the flu-like illness include a fever of more than 37.8 degrees Celsius (100 degrees Fahrenheit), body aches, coughing, a sore throat, respiratory congestion and, in some cases, vomiting and diarrhoea.

At least 81 people have died from severe pneumonia caused by the disease in Mexico, according to the WHO.

The virus is usually contracted through direct contact with pigs, but Joseph Domenech, chief of animal health service at U.N. Food and Agriculture Agency in Rome, said all indications were that the virus is being spread through human-to-human transmission.

No vaccine specifically protects against swine flu, and it is unclear how much protection current human flu vaccines might offer.

Russia banned the import of meat products from Mexico, California, Texans and Kansas. South Korea said it would increase the number of its influenza virus checks on pork products from Mexico and the U.S.

Serbia on Saturday banned all imports of pork from North America, despite reassurances from the FAO that pigs appear not to be the immediate source of infection.

Italy’s agriculture lobby, Coldiretti, warned against panic reaction, noting that farmers lost hundreds of millions of euros because of consumers boycotts during the 2001 mad cow scare and the 2005 bird flu outbreak.

Japanese Agriculture Minister Shigeru Ishiba appeared on TV to calm consumers, saying it was safe to eat pork.

In Egypt, health authorities were examining about 350,000 pigs being raised in Cairo and other provinces for swine flu.

The WHO’s pandemic alert level is currently at to phase 3. The organization said the level could be raised to phase 4 if the virus shows sustained ability to pass from human to human.

Phase 5 would be reached if the virus is found in at least two countries in the same region.

“The declaration of phase 5 is a strong signal that a pandemic is imminent and that the time to finalize the organization, communication, and implementation of the planned mitigation measures is short,” WHO said.

Phase 6 would indicate a full-scale global pandemic.


thestar.com

[rox0607champs]

i dont like this at all :( . i guess ill go to sams and atleast stock up on water

[KingCheetah]

<iframe width="425" height="350" frameborder="0" scrolling="no" marginheight="0" marginwidth="0" src="http://maps.google.com/maps/ms?ie=UTF8&amp;hl=en&amp;t=p&amp;msa=0&amp;msid=106484775090296685271.000468 1a37b713f6b5950&amp;ll=32.639375,-110.390625&amp;spn=15.738151,25.488281&amp;output=embed"></iframe><br /><small>View <a href="http://maps.google.com/maps/ms?ie=UTF8&amp;hl=en&amp;t=p&amp;msa=0&amp;msid=106484775090296685271.000468 1a37b713f6b5950&amp;ll=32.639375,-110.390625&amp;spn=15.738151,25.488281&amp;source=embed" style="color:#0000FF;text-align:left">H1N1 Swine Flu</a> in a larger map</small>

[rocketsregle]

did the 1918 flu really kill 20-100 million people? I had never even heard of it

I happened during World War I, it killed a lot of service men on both sides. Service men brought it with them when they were sent home during the war and after the war ended. I remember a teacher in one of my college history classes saying Americans now a days are unaware of this part of history. I was one of them before this class because when I thought of World War One I didn't think of the flu.

[TheBigAristotle]

It sounds like the logical choice is to bomb Mexico.

[Supermac34]

Is something fishy with this thing? It seems like the only serious cases have been in Mexico and everybody else in the world who has gotten it has either been "mildly ill" or at least recovering.

[oomp]

Is something fishy with this thing? It seems like the only serious cases have been in Mexico and everybody else in the world who has gotten it has either been "mildly ill" or at least recovering.


The 1918 flu killed in three waves - the first was a mild outbreak. The second was the strongest and most deadly and the third hit cities that fared well during the second. So it still got to pretty much everybody.

I honestly think I've run into it - in Houston. I've been as sick as I have been in 20+ years over the last week. I got sick after seeing someone who got sick after flying into IAH April 13. I hope I'm wrong.

[rimrocker]

Is something fishy with this thing? It seems like the only serious cases have been in Mexico and everybody else in the world who has gotten it has either been "mildly ill" or at least recovering.

Epidemiology is fascinating stuff. Could be any number of factors related to health, cleanliness, and diet.

Also, remember that viruses aren't stupid. A dead host is not a plus in the virus world, so it will most likely evolve into a less severe strain.

[arkoe]

Is something fishy with this thing? It seems like the only serious cases have been in Mexico and everybody else in the world who has gotten it has either been "mildly ill" or at least recovering.

That seemed kind of odd to me as well.

I'm kind of skeptical after hearing:

"We're all going to die from Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (Mad Cow)!"
"We're all going to die from SARS!"
"We're all going to die from Avian Flu!"

I would be interested to hear rimrocker's/Mrs. rimrocker's opinion on the current swine flu outbreak compared to the above. How many of these have been real worldwide emergencies, or have they been overblown by the media and general public paranoia?

[rimrocker]

CDC says...

Laboratory testing has found the swine influenza A (H1N1) virus susceptible to the prescription antiviral drugs oseltamivir and zanamivir and has issued interim guidance for the use of these drugs to treat and prevent infection with swine influenza viruses. CDC also has prepared interim guidance on how to care for people who are sick and interim guidance on the use of face masks in a community setting where spread of this swine flu virus has been detected. This is a rapidly evolving situation and CDC will provide new information as it becomes available.

There are everyday actions people can take to stay healthy.

* Cover your nose and mouth with a tissue when you cough or sneeze. Throw the tissue in the trash after you use it.
* Wash your hands often with soap and water, especially after you cough or sneeze. Alcohol-based hands cleaners are also effective.
* Avoid touching your eyes, nose or mouth. Germs spread that way.

Try to avoid close contact with sick people.

* Influenza is thought to spread mainly person-to-person through coughing or sneezing of infected people.
* If you get sick, CDC recommends that you stay home from work or school and limit contact with others to keep from infecting them.
http://www.cdc.gov/swineflu/investigation.htm

[Shroopy2]

Is something fishy with this thing? It seems like the only serious cases have been in Mexico and everybody else in the world who has gotten it has either been "mildly ill" or at least recovering.
Thats what we want, a best case scenario non-deadly pandemic if there is such a thing. Still need a bit of paranoia and full surveillance of this start to finish. Not like they're crying wolf on this, better safe than sorry

[MiddleMan]

My wife is a nurse and she said they might have a case at their hospital. Not confirmed yet but still very scary.



Which hospital ???

[rocketsjudoka]

Epidemiology is fascinating stuff. Could be any number of factors related to health, cleanliness, and diet.

Also, remember that viruses aren't stupid. A dead host is not a plus in the virus world, so it will most likely evolve into a less severe strain.

On ABC news they are doing a story on it right now and mentioned the possibility that it might've already mutated into a less virulent strain.

For those who are wondering why there is such concern about this is that this is a new flu virus which humans might have little or no natural immunity too.

[aghast]

Might I suggest "Pandemic Potential" and "Cytokine Storm (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cytokine_storm)" as two pretty sweet death metal band names? Worst case scenario, as two pretty sweet death metal tribute band names?

did the 1918 flu really kill 20-100 million people? I had never even heard of it

Yeah, it was a mfer. Chances are someone in your family died from it. I think I had a great uncle who never saw his twenties because of it.

I used to like reading in school textbooks about the Black Death or 1666 London plague, content with the knowledge that we were no longer backward, knew the germ theory of disease, and could handle such things if they occurred today. Then I read about the 1918 influenza. Modern times, more or less modern medicine. They knew, but were powerless to stop it. Not saying that this Mexico virus is that disease, but when the next big influenza hits, we'll be equally ineffective in stopping it. Depending on how deep our tamiflu bunkers are and the hang time it takes to manufacture 300 million doses of a vaccine once it's actually synthesized (Katrina did not reassure me.), I'm guessing all our modern technology and knowledge will afford us is the ability to watch live webcams of people as they progress through the illness, as it spreads closer and closer to us.

The 1918 flu killed in three waves - the first was a mild outbreak. The second was the strongest and most deadly and the third hit cities that fared well during the second. So it still got to pretty much everybody.

I honestly think I've run into it - in Houston. I've been as sick as I have been in 20+ years over the last week. I got sick after seeing someone who got sick after flying into IAH April 13. I hope I'm wrong.

Good luck; hope you feel better. If indeed the strains outside of Mexico are weakened, maybe it's better to suffer through the Spring Breaker version of this thing before/if it mutates (back) into stronger stuff. If you start feeling better give us a shout-out; we can meet up for a combined Rockets Game 5 viewing / (Chicken pox-like) weak disease strain communicability party.

[rimrocker]

I would be interested to hear rimrocker's/Mrs. rimrocker's opinion on the current swine flu outbreak compared to the above. How many of these have been real worldwide emergencies, or have they been overblown by the media and general public paranoia?

Sorry, I missed your post earlier.

The media do tend to fixate on the things that will titillate. That said, I don't think SARS was overblown. It had a reported 9.6% mortality rate and spread fast around the globe. There is lingering suspicion that the mortality rate in China was significantly higher than what was reported and there are gaps in the Chinese government's story of how they handled the disease. Still, because it started in China, it was probably less of a threat to the rest of the world because it was relatively easy to document all the folks who visited China during that time frame. If it had started in France or Boston or Tokyo, it could have possibly been much worse.

[rimrocker]

Related to an earlier question about the effectiveness of masks, here's CDC...

Information on the effectiveness of facemasks1 and respirators2 for the control of influenza in community settings is extremely limited. Thus, it is difficult to assess their potential effectiveness in controlling swine influenza A (H1N1) virus transmission in these settings. In the absence of clear scientific data, the interim recommendations below have been developed on the basis of public health judgment and the historical use of facemasks and respirators in other settings.

In areas with confirmed human cases of swine influenza A (H1N1) virus infection, the risk for infection can be reduced through a combination of simple actions. No single action will provide complete protection, but an approach combining the following steps can help decrease the likelihood of transmission. These actions include frequent handwashing, covering coughs, and having ill persons stay home, except to seek medical care, and minimize contact with others in the household. Additional measures that can limit transmission of a new influenza strain include voluntary home quarantine of members of households with confirmed or probable swine influenza cases, reduction of unnecessary social contacts, and avoidance whenever possible of crowded settings.

When it is absolutely necessary to enter a crowded setting or to have close contact3 with persons who might be ill, the time spent in that setting should be as short as possible. If used correctly, facemasks and respirators can help prevent some exposures, but they should be used along with other preventive measures, such as avoiding close contact and maintaining good hand hygiene. When crowded settings or close contact with others cannot be avoided, the use of facemasks1 or respirators2 in areas where transmission of swine influenza A (H1N1) virus has been confirmed should be considered as follows:

1. Whenever possible, rather than relying on the use of facemasks or respirators, close contact with people who might be ill and being in crowded settings should be avoided.
2. Facemasks1 should be considered for use by individuals who enter crowded settings, both to protect their nose and mouth from other people's coughs and to reduce the wearers' likelihood of coughing on others; the time spent in crowded settings should be as short as possible.
3. Respirators2 should be considered for use by individuals for whom close contact with an infectious person is unavoidable. This can include selected individuals who must care for a sick person (e.g., family member with a respiratory infection) at home.

These interim recommendations will be revised as new information about the use of facemasks and respirators in the current setting becomes available.

http://www.cdc.gov/swineflu/masks.htm

[aghast]

Thanks for the CDC link, rimrocker.

[ROXRAN]

That's not good news, rimrocker. I really wish I'd believed in UN black helicopters or hurricane preparedness before reading this and embarking upon my own panicky isolation/fallout shelter in the backyard.

Currently, my provisions consist of a giant can of reduced sodium chicken w/ noodle Campbells, three Coke Zero twenty-ouncers, and two (rapidly thawing) DiGiorno supremes. Surely this will last me through the ensuing months of civilization-ending bedlam.

I'm using the pizza slicer as my main digging implement. The groundbreaking went well, but so far not much headway has been made to match my sketches for a combined underground lair/ Howard Hughes germaphobe-hazmat panic room.

I was thinking of going to the Home Depot parking lot tomorrow morning to hire more-experienced construction foremen to oversee my labor, but, alas, we are all doomed.

I tried to tell you demmitt...Follow my advice. O no... laugh at my preparations, eh...Now you wanna be like me...wanna walk and talk like me...

[JeeberD]

**** **** ****!


I've been looking forward to my May Mexico vacation for MONTHS now, but this might force me to cancel it... :(

[arkoe]

Sorry, I missed your post earlier.

The media do tend to fixate on the things that will titillate. That said, I don't think SARS was overblown. It had a reported 9.6% mortality rate and spread fast around the globe. There is lingering suspicion that the mortality rate in China was significantly higher than what was reported and there are gaps in the Chinese government's story of how they handled the disease. Still, because it started in China, it was probably less of a threat to the rest of the world because it was relatively easy to document all the folks who visited China during that time frame. If it had started in France or Boston or Tokyo, it could have possibly been much worse.

True... this one popping up in our proverbial backyard is more than a little disconcerting.

[ScriboErgoSum]

Jeez, a co-worker of my wife has a son on vacation in Mexico, and he is having all the flulike symptoms. I really hope he's okay.

Please keep us up to date with your wife's info, Rimrocker.

[IROC it]

It sounds like the logical choice is to bomb Mexico.


If Bush was still prez, maybe... Obama will just send in the snipers.

[aghast]

http://graphics8.nytimes.com/images/2009/04/27/world/27flu.xlarge1.jpg

From here (http://www.nytimes.com/2009/04/27/world/27flu.html?_r=1&hp), the caption reads:
Tourists on an almost empty tour bus in Mexico City on Sunday. Swine flu has killed more than 80 people in Mexico.

Assuming the caption is accurate, and these are not WHO officials traveling to sites of contamination to offer their services, these five people are idiots. Each of them spent a couple hundred bucks on their weeklong vacations, woke up this morning in Mexico City, and figured, "Yeah, I know everybody's getting sick, but f- it, I'm getting my money's worth. Let's go sight-seeing." Each of these people will be on a flight back to the States in a matter of days, spreading whatever unholy crap they picked up to another five clusterpoints across the nation. This picture is what argues against hope of containment, if this virus proves any kind of lasting threat. The tourists on that bus should be imprisoned for the public good.

I tried to tell you demmitt...Follow my advice. O no... laugh at my preparations, eh...Now you wanna be like me...wanna walk and talk like me...

Heh. As I find myself knee-deep in backyard mud (geez I hope it's mud; don't remember hitting any pipes), the walls literally caving in around me, I do tip my hat, good sir. I admit: I was thoroughly wrong to believe in the efficacy of representative democracy, lo these many years.

I am a bit chagrined that your shelter preparations were for alternative motives (second amendment rather than Spanish flu, I believe), but you will endure nonetheless. Oh, to read the history texts the survivors (those who built fallout shelters) will write, not as history's winners, but in most cases as its inadvertent survivors. It's as if Jor-El was busying himself building escape pods, not because he thought Krypton was going to explode, but because he was a dues-paying Bircher.

On a more serious note, I just came back from a convenience store, where the off-duty officer was busy sneezing up his lungs, without covering his mouth. It's probably the normal B strain of regular flu that would be dying out this time of year, and I am definitely oversensitive, but something's going around Houston, if only my paranoia.

[arkoe]

pic

Have to be generally amused by the guy at the back of the bus that clearly has a mask around his neck, but is not wearing it to cover his nose/mouth.

Granted, general consensus seems to be that the masks do not help much for this particular virus.

[LCII]

It's disconcerting to hear two boys in Texas got the flu and have no idea how they contracted it. Especially when it seems like the flu originated from Mexico. Reminds me of the game pandemic where the virus slowly and covertly infects people... there might be hundreds of infected in the lower parts of America already. :eek:

[aghast]

Have to be generally amused by the guy at the back of the bus that clearly has a mask around his neck, but is not wearing it to cover his nose/mouth...

Yep. Reminds me of the guy who was diagnosed with thermonuclear consumption in Europe a while back, then decided to fly back to the States on a commercial airliner. In a confined cabin, with recirculating air, with other people on board. What a champ.

Or like these people from the earlier pic, who might not be entirely clear on the concept behind the masks:

http://media.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/photo/homepage/hp4-25-09e.jpg

[MadMax]

It's disconcerting to hear two boys in Texas got the flu and have no idea how they contracted it. Especially when it seems like the flu originated from Mexico. Reminds me of the game pandemic where the virus slowly and covertly infects people... there might be hundreds of infected in the lower parts of America already. :eek:

good news is that the incubation period is only 48 hours...if you're exposed and don't show symptoms after 48 hours, you're clean....lowers the number of ticking time bombs walking around at any one point.

[KingCheetah]

Near San Antonio...
_____

SCUCISD Classes Canceled Due To Swine Flu

SAN ANTONIO -- The Texas Department of State Health Services on Sunday announced that all 14 schools and district facilities in the Schertz-Cibolo-Universal City Independent School District will be closed effective immediately after several more flu-like illnesses have been discovered in the department's ongoing swine flu investigation.

The closure will be in effect for at least a week for 11,000 students and 1,400 district employees. All extracurricular activities also were cancelled.

link (http://www.ksat.com/health/19295627/detail.html#-)

[MoonDogg]

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/9/90/FlaggMovieSheridan.jpg

[cwebbster]

Near San Antonio...
_____

SCUCISD Classes Canceled Due To Swine Flu

SAN ANTONIO -- The Texas Department of State Health Services on Sunday announced that all 14 schools and district facilities in the Schertz-Cibolo-Universal City Independent School District will be closed effective immediately after several more flu-like illnesses have been discovered in the department's ongoing swine flu investigation.

The closure will be in effect for at least a week for 11,000 students and 1,400 district employees. All extracurricular activities also were cancelled.

link (http://www.ksat.com/health/19295627/detail.html#-)

Wow....shall we say overblown or is this really that freakin serious?! OH DAMN, we are gonna all turn into zombies!

[leroy]

Near San Antonio...
_____

SCUCISD Classes Canceled Due To Swine Flu

SAN ANTONIO -- The Texas Department of State Health Services on Sunday announced that all 14 schools and district facilities in the Schertz-Cibolo-Universal City Independent School District will be closed effective immediately after several more flu-like illnesses have been discovered in the department's ongoing swine flu investigation.

The closure will be in effect for at least a week for 11,000 students and 1,400 district employees. All extracurricular activities also were cancelled.

link (http://www.ksat.com/health/19295627/detail.html#-)


My nephew is in elementary school in that district. I'm planning on being down there this weekend, too, for a soccer tournament and bbq.

[Harrisment]

I got sick starting last Wednesday and I'm just now getting over it. Sore throat for a day, then just a really bad cough and a lot of sinus congestion. I never did get a fever though so I think I'm swine free.

[Ron from the G]

The experts say they can't figure out why only people that have contracted it in Mexico are being killed. Isn't it obvious. The people down there are very poor to the point that many of them can't afford traditional health care. Last time I was down there both I and my daughter got sick. We went to the ER for my daughter and it only cost 25 bucks without any insurance. I didn't go to the ER. I simply went to the pharmacy to get a penicillin shot and paid a nurse to give it to me. That was a total of about 15 dollars.

I saw that as a hell of a deal, yet my family down are normal people in Mexico. They work every day jobs like being a teacher and yet they can not even afford 15 dollars to go get a penicillin shot. This is why so many people down there are dying of this strain of flu.

It is indeed lethal, but we as Americans need to chill out on the paranoia until actual Americans that have gone through our medical establishment start dying of this disease. We are in a far better situation to deal with this then Mexico.

[the futants]

Just tell me this isn't going to affect my ability to purchase those juicy tacos al pastor from the trailer over off Burnet Rd, please. If my tacos al pastor are negatively affected by this, then I will begin to panic.

[Lady_Di]

The experts say they can't figure out why only people that have contracted it in Mexico are being killed. Isn't it obvious. The people down there are very poor to the point that many of them can't afford traditional health care. Last time I was down there both I and my daughter got sick. We went to the ER for my daughter and it only cost 25 bucks without any insurance. I didn't go to the ER. I simply went to the pharmacy to get a penicillin shot and paid a nurse to give it to me. That was a total of about 15 dollars.

I saw that as a hell of a deal, yet my family down are normal people in Mexico. They work every day jobs like being a teacher and yet they can not even afford 15 dollars to go get a penicillin shot. This is why so many people down there are dying of this strain of flu.

It is indeed lethal, but we as Americans need to chill out on the paranoia until actual Americans that have gone through our medical establishment start dying of this disease. We are in a far better situation to deal with this then Mexico.

i agree with this...so far no one died here in U.S. but I read that they said this strain of flu in U.S. is less severe than Mexico so who knows if it'll become more severe later on.

For now, just use your common sense. Wash hands throughly and often. Don't touch your mouth, eyes, and nose.

http://blogs.chron.com/sciguy/archives/2009/04/post_79.html

[ima_drummer2k]

Just tell me this isn't going to affect my ability to purchase those juicy tacos al pastor from the trailer over off Burnet Rd, please. If my tacos al pastor are negatively affected by this, then I will begin to panic.
Don't worry. Your tacos are made out of dogs and cats, not swine.

[Faos]

Follow the pandemic using google maps:

http://gizmodo.com/5229314

[MadMax]

The experts say they can't figure out why only people that have contracted it in Mexico are being killed. Isn't it obvious. The people down there are very poor to the point that many of them can't afford traditional health care. Last time I was down there both I and my daughter got sick. We went to the ER for my daughter and it only cost 25 bucks without any insurance. I didn't go to the ER. I simply went to the pharmacy to get a penicillin shot and paid a nurse to give it to me. That was a total of about 15 dollars.

I saw that as a hell of a deal, yet my family down are normal people in Mexico. They work every day jobs like being a teacher and yet they can not even afford 15 dollars to go get a penicillin shot. This is why so many people down there are dying of this strain of flu.

It is indeed lethal, but we as Americans need to chill out on the paranoia until actual Americans that have gone through our medical establishment start dying of this disease. We are in a far better situation to deal with this then Mexico.

This sounds good, but ignores the fact that you can't cure a virus. All you can do is treat symptoms.

It's not as if we have a cure for swine flu in the US and they don't. When you get the flu, going to the doctor is nearly worthless...just takes time for the virus to run its course.

I don't see how that's the difference. And it's those who are healthiest that have been killed by this thing...which is like it was in 1919.

I'm not saying it's the end of the world, but I'm glad they're being vigilant about this.

[Harrisment]

This sounds good, but ignores the fact that you can't cure a virus. All you can do is treat symptoms.

It's not as if we have a cure for swine flu in the US and they don't. When you get the flu, going to the doctor is nearly worthless...just takes time for the virus to run its course.

I don't see how that's the difference. And it's those who are healthiest that have been killed by this thing...which is like it was in 1919.

I'm not saying it's the end of the world, but I'm glad they're being vigilant about this.

Actually if taken early Tamiflu is very effective at blocking the virus' ability to replicate and greatly reduces the length of any flu-like symptoms.

[MadMax]

Actually if taken early Tamiflu is very effective at blocking the virus' ability to replicate and greatly reduces the length of any flu-like symptoms.

Right....but my understanding of those who've had swine flu here in the States so far is that they haven't been given Tamiflu...that most weren't diagnosed as having had it until symptoms were well in place.

[MoBalls]

we have 4 people out today......all of them with flu like symptoms...hmmmmm :confused:


why didnt I think of this excuse?

[rimrocker]

...

Not to derail the thread, but as a graduate of Mr. Jefferson's university, I am sensitive to made-up quotes attributed to TJ. The quote in your sig is false...

http://wiki.monticello.org/mediawiki/index.php/Private_Banks_(Quotation)

[Lady_Di]

40 confirmed cases here in U.S.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090427/ap_on_he_me/med_swine_flu

[MadMax]

http://blogs.chron.com/sciguy/archives/2009/04/post_79.html

• The disease may have reached Harris County. There are rumors circulating in the Texas Medical Center this morning of a few suspected cases of swine flu in Harris County. Houston Health and Human Services spokeswoman Kathy Barton said, "We are in active surveillance mode. We have cases we are interested in, but we are only going to talk about confirmed cases." Confirmation may come later today.

[Aceshigh7]

I am not suprised that a potential pandemic would originate in Mexico. After all, we are talking about a country where where hygiene is so bad that people commonly wipe their butts and throw their soiled toilet paper in trash cans rather than the toilet. That's just freaking nasty.

[Jeff]

Out of curiosity, does anyone on here honestly believe that this will kill a hundred million people or more like the influenza attack in the early 1900's?

I'm just wondering.

[Azadre]

Out of curiosity, does anyone on here honestly believe that this will kill a hundred million people or more like the influenza attack in the early 1900's?

I'm just wondering.
I think it will fizzle out. While it is important to track the spread, it has only shown a mortality rate of 5%, and so far none of the deaths are in the United States.

[rimrocker]

As luck would have it, I'm in a statewide simulation today... a 9.2 earthquake hit the Oregon coast and we're supposed to figure out how we coordinate the response. I'm sure most of the debrief will be centered around the flu question, so I'll report back later.

[ima_drummer2k]

http://blogs.chron.com/sciguy/archives/2009/04/post_79.html

• The disease may have reached Harris County. There are rumors circulating in the Texas Medical Center this morning of a few suspected cases of swine flu in Harris County. Houston Health and Human Services spokeswoman Kathy Barton said, "We are in active surveillance mode. We have cases we are interested in, but we are only going to talk about confirmed cases." Confirmation may come later today.
One of the first comments in that blog said:

Eric,

I live in Katy, should I take Tamiflu or evac?

If you read Eric's blog leading up to Hurricane Ike as much as I did, I'm sure you can really appreciate the understated humor in that post.

[rocketsjudoka]

I just had a very unsettling thought. What if there is a swine flu outbreak in Harris County and as such the NBA has moved Rockets home playoff games to Milwaukee! :eek:

[bobrek]

I just had a very unsettling thought. What if there is a swine flu outbreak in Harris County and as such the NBA has moved Rockets home playoff games to Milwaukee! :eek:

Nahhh, they'd move a home game against Portland to Seattle and a home game against the Lakers to San Diego.

[NateNate]

havent read the whole thread but what can i do to help prevent getting sick from this, or is it even possible

[Landlord Landry]

Out of curiosity, does anyone on here honestly believe that this will kill a hundred million people.

Not I.....

[ScriboErgoSum]

Out of curiosity, does anyone on here honestly believe that this will kill a hundred million people or more like the influenza attack in the early 1900's?

I'm just wondering.

I don't expect it to be another Spanish Flu, but the main reason is that we are much more aggressive about fighting diseases like this today. I don't have a problem with governments treating this very seriously to prevent it from becoming a catastrophic problem.

[oomp]

Out of curiosity, does anyone on here honestly believe that this will kill a hundred million people or more like the influenza attack in the early 1900's?

I'm just wondering.

No. There will be some really sick people though.

[Supermac34]

havent read the whole thread but what can i do to help prevent getting sick from this, or is it even possible

You can do the pretty much the same thing to prevent the regular flu.

1. Wash your hands. Often. Don't touch your face with your hands.
2. Stay away from sick people.
3. Maintain general health, eat well, etc.

If you have flu like symptoms: go to the Doctor. Tests have already shown that the swine flu responds very well to flu treatments such as Tamiflu if treated early.

The biggest thing is to be smart, and don't panic. Most of the cases outside of Mexico have been mild, and if medical treatment is administered quickly, it runs its course like any case of the flu.

[MadMax]

I think it will fizzle out. While it is important to track the spread, it has only shown a mortality rate of 5%, and so far none of the deaths are in the United States.

Mortality rate of Spanish Flu was around 2.5%.

[pgabriel]

As if they didn't have enough problems (http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/front/6394593.html)

[MadMax]

One of the first comments in that blog said:



If you read Eric's blog leading up to Hurricane Ike as much as I did, I'm sure you can really appreciate the understated humor in that post.

that is absolutely brilliant!! :D

[MadMax]

Out of curiosity, does anyone on here honestly believe that this will kill a hundred million people or more like the influenza attack in the early 1900's?

I'm just wondering.
it would have to be something massive to kill that many. but we're certainly more prone to pandemics now than we were then....air travel moves bugs around pretty quickly.

[Lady_Di]

As if they didn't have enough problems (http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/front/6394593.html)

Dang, drug violence, flu and now earthquake? :(

[mic]

http://blogs.chron.com/sciguy/archives/2009/04/post_79.html

• The disease may have reached Harris County. There are rumors circulating in the Texas Medical Center this morning of a few suspected cases of swine flu in Harris County. Houston Health and Human Services spokeswoman Kathy Barton said, "We are in active surveillance mode. We have cases we are interested in, but we are only going to talk about confirmed cases." Confirmation may come later today.

Glad I work in the TMC.

Oh, wait...

[MadMax]

If you have flu like symptoms: go to the Doctor. Tests have already shown that the swine flu responds very well to flu treatments such as Tamiflu if treated early.

.

totally agree...typically i wouldn't go to the doctor if i caught the flu....but if i did now (particularly with the close of typical flu season already) you can bet i'd be seeing the doc.

as for tamiflu, sounds like it hasn't been used with respect to actual patients...just in a lab with the strain:

http://blogs.chron.com/sciguy/archives/2009/04/post_79.html

• How effective will antiviral medications such as Tamiflu be? "We're not really sure how effective antivirals will be in treating or preventing this strain of swine flu," Bradley said. When researchers put the swine flu strain in a culture dish, certain antiviral drugs stop it from growing. But it's not clear how effective the drugs will be against treating or preventing swine flu in the real world.

[KingCheetah]

problems (http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/front/6394593.html)

Note to self: stay far, far away from Mexico City.

[Supermac34]

Max: you may have a point about the Tamiflu, but I swear I read or saw on TV someone from the WHO saying they are recommending treatment with Tamiflu and some other antiviral and results have been positive. I guess that may be the lab results.

Anyways: I predict mortality rates that are low for folks that seek early medical treatment. The biggest danger out of these influenzas are that they cause pneumonia (which can be fatal) or they cause a worsening or pre-existing conditions: all of which can be treated/prevented by proper medical help.

Some article was claiming that there may be many more swine flu cases out there, and may have been out there for months, and its just now getting notice because of the bigger outbreak in Mexico. It may be very possible that hundreds, if not thousands have already had this flu, recovered, and never knew the flu they had was swine flu.

[El Toro]

havent read the whole thread but what can i do to help prevent getting sick from this, or is it even possible

Basic precautionary measures as with anything flu related include:
covering nose and mouth during coughing or sneezing
washing hands thorougly afterwards
avoiding contact with eyes, nose, mouth, etc
staying away from those with flu-like symptoms

I think one of the most important things is for those with flu-like symptoms (e.g. fever >100 and cough and/or sore throat) to stay at home and not go into work/school. Go to your doctor and follow with his recommendations.

[MadMax]

Anyways: I predict mortality rates that are low for folks that seek early medical treatment. The biggest danger out of these influenzas are that they cause pneumonia (which can be fatal) or they cause a worsening or pre-existing conditions: all of which can be treated/prevented by proper medical help.

.

Yeah, this flu is different from the typical A/B strains we have each fall/winter, though. Like with the Spanish Flu (which I also understand was a bird-swine-human strain) the mortality rates are higher among the healthiest in the population....because it's your bodies response (excess mucus produced) that ultimately is the killer. Very different from the typical flu which kills finds higher mortality rates among babies and elderly.

[Harrisment]

Mortality rate of Spanish Flu was around 2.5%.

I think that's wrong. I think they estimate that it killed 2.5 - 5.0 % of the worlds population. Not that it killed 2.5% of the people that got it.

"The global mortality rate from the 1918/1919 pandemic is not known, but is estimated at 2.5 to 5% of the human population, with 20% or more of the world population suffering from the disease to some extent. Influenza may have killed as many as 25 million in its first 25 weeks. Older estimates say it killed 40–50 million people[3] while current estimates say 50 million to 100 million people worldwide were killed.[14] This pandemic has been described as "the greatest medical holocaust in history" and may have killed more people than the Black Death."

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_flu

Edit: Well as I read through that wiki it says that between 2 - 20% of infected people died. That's nice and broad. Freakin' wikipedia.

[Shroopy2]

Max: you may have a point about the Tamiflu, but I swear I read or saw on TV someone from the WHO saying they are recommending treatment with Tamiflu and some other antiviral and results have been positive. I guess that may be the lab results.

Anyways: I predict mortality rates that are low for folks that seek early medical treatment. The biggest danger out of these influenzas are that they cause pneumonia (which can be fatal) or they cause a worsening or pre-existing conditions: all of which can be treated/prevented by proper medical help.

Some article was claiming that there may be many more swine flu cases out there, and may have been out there for months, and its just now getting notice because of the bigger outbreak in Mexico. It may be very possible that hundreds, if not thousands have already had this flu, recovered, and never knew the flu they had was swine flu.
This is what I'm thinking. Not trying to rationalize it and marginalize the issue. I had a "killer" case of soar throat, nausea, weakness in the body, ear aches, some kinda sickness weeks ago and missed work. As did a coworker of mine with the same stuff. A lady that does work for us said her son kept having a persistant fever that didnt get better for a week. All flu like symptons except for the ear part..

Its all coincidence and not saying anyone had swine flu. Just that there was an apparent bug going around that people contracted and recovered from. And who knows could very well have been a mild strain. Sucks that you only hear about these things only after several people show symptoms and death from it....

Tiime to recommend more work-at-home telecommuting :)

[MadMax]

I think that's wrong. I think they estimate that it killed 2.5 - 5.0 % of the worlds population. Not that it killed 2.5% of the people that got it.

"The global mortality rate from the 1918/1919 pandemic is not known, but is estimated at 2.5 to 5% of the human population, with 20% or more of the world population suffering from the disease to some extent. Influenza may have killed as many as 25 million in its first 25 weeks. Older estimates say it killed 40–50 million people[3] while current estimates say 50 million to 100 million people worldwide were killed.[14] This pandemic has been described as "the greatest medical holocaust in history" and may have killed more people than the Black Death."

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_flu

Edit: Well as I read through that wiki it says that between 2 - 20% of infected people died. That's nice and broad. Freakin' wikipedia.

I read Wiki on this before I posted, but I've seen shows on this before...and read some other sites as well:


http://virus.stanford.edu/uda/
The influenza virus had a profound virulence, with a mortality rate at 2.5% compared to the previous influenza epidemics, which were less than 0.1%.


http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2004/02/0205_040205_spanishflu.html
The disease was exceptionally severe, with mortality rates of 2.5 percent among those infected, compared to less than 0.1 percent in other influenza epidemics.


The 20% numbers seem WAY overblown, given other influenza epidemics...and it's Wiki after all! :D

[pgabriel]

40,000,000/2,000,000,000=2%

if they say it killed 20 to 50 million, 50 million would be only a little less than 1% of today's population

[Rocket1]

It sounds like the logical choice is to bomb Mexico.

lol winner

[MadMax]

40,000,000/2,000,000,000=2%

if they say it killed 20 to 50 million, 50 million would be only a little less than 1% of today's population

yeah, i'm having a difficult time discerning all those numbers. that National Geographic link literally says 2.5% mortality rate among those infected.

the wikipedia link looks like it vomited statistics, some of which don't match up.

i did find this which seems to have lots and lots of interesting data about it, some of it broken down by country:

http://answers.google.com/answers/main?cmd=threadview&id=196121

[fmullegun]

Can we have another Los Rockets night during the playoffs and try to infect Kobe with swine flu?

[Harrisment]

Can we have another Los Rockets night during the playoffs and try to infect Kobe with swine flu?

Awesome! :D

[MadMax]

Chron.com's Sci-Guy Eric Berger has a live chat going on about it right now:

http://blogs.chron.com/sciguy/archives/2009/04/live_chat_an_up.html


here's my favorite part so far:

Guest: Can I punch the next person that asks if they need to stop eating pork? Punch them right in the face...

Eric Berger: Only if they're from Katy.

[mc mark]

Dang Mexican Industrialists!

[ima_drummer2k]

Chron.com's Sci-Guy Eric Berger has a live chat going on about it right now:

http://blogs.chron.com/sciguy/archives/2009/04/live_chat_an_up.html


here's my favorite part so far:

Guest: Can I punch the next person that asks if they need to stop eating pork? Punch them right in the face...

Eric Berger: Only if they're from Katy.
Awesome.

He is one of the most patient laid back guys when it comes to all the stupid questions he gets. But every once in a while, he lets something like that fly out. Kind of reminds me of Clutch in that regard.

[Raven Lunatic]

Hmm...my wife's friend just got back from a cruise to Mexico and she is sick. My son has a suppressed immune system and my wife picks this women's kids up from school every day. Would it be an overreaction to tell her friend that she can't pick her kids up until we at least confirm that she isn't sick with swine flu? I know that healthy people seem to be worse off than others with this, but my wife is freaking out pretty bad.

[dskillz]

Hmm...my wife's friend just got back from a cruise to Mexico and she is sick. My son has a suppressed immune system and my wife picks this women's kids up from school every day. Would it be an overreaction to tell her friend that she can't pick her kids up until we at least confirm that she isn't sick with swine flu? I know that healthy people seem to be worse off than others with this, but my wife is freaking out pretty bad.

Can't be too careful with something like this. Especially if your kid's immune system isn't the best.

[Shroopy2]

Hmm...my wife's friend just got back from a cruise to Mexico and she is sick. My son has a suppressed immune system and my wife picks this women's kids up from school every day. Would it be an overreaction to tell her friend that she can't pick her kids up until we at least confirm that she isn't sick with swine flu? I know that healthy people seem to be worse off than others with this, but my wife is freaking out pretty bad.
I can see if the person just got back from Europe or something, but Mexico where the actual DEATHS are happening, tell 'em call a cab...

Seriously though, I wouldnt want it to be me or my son, I know that. While it might come across as overreaction, its completely rational thinking. Plus if her friend gets tested she's helping everyone else in the WORLD feel calmer :)

[finalsbound]

Gaia?

[DoitDickau]

I read Wiki on this before I posted, but I've seen shows on this before...and read some other sites as well:


http://virus.stanford.edu/uda/
The influenza virus had a profound virulence, with a mortality rate at 2.5% compared to the previous influenza epidemics, which were less than 0.1%.


http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2004/02/0205_040205_spanishflu.html
The disease was exceptionally severe, with mortality rates of 2.5 percent among those infected, compared to less than 0.1 percent in other influenza epidemics.


The 20% numbers seem WAY overblown, given other influenza epidemics...and it's Wiki after all! :D


The world population was only 1.8 billion back then. Assuming the low end of the death estimates (40 million), for only 2.5 mortality rate, essentially every person on earth at the time would have had to have been infected for those numbers to work.

Another interesting thing to know is that the 1918 flu came in two waves. First appearing in spring 1918 and then coming back in the fall. The orginal spring wave was much more mild and had a low mortality rate. It was the fall wave that really cause the majority of the deaths.

[Raven Lunatic]

My wife talked to her and apparently she has been sick since well before she went to Mexico, so I doubt it is the swine flu.

[vstexas09]

As a Muslim, do you think I will get in trouble if I get Swine Flu?? We dont dig on swine

hey raheel, are you of hispanic or middle eastern descent??

[rimrocker]

Tomorrow's Washington Post...

WHO Raises Global Threat Level As Reports of Swine Flu Increase
Confirmed Cases Double in U.S.; Europe Cites Its 1st

By Rob Stein
Washington Post Staff Writer
Tuesday, April 28, 2009
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/04/27/AR2009042700814_pf.html

With the number of swine flu cases and deaths continuing to mount, the World Health Organization yesterday raised its pandemic threat level one notch, saying the dangerous new virus was clearly causing sustained community-wide outbreaks.

The decision came amid another day of rapid, sometimes confusing developments from around the world, including a rise in the suspected death toll in Mexico to 149, the confirmation of the first case in Europe and a doubling of the number of confirmed cases in the United States. In the first signs that the outbreak could be taking a toll on the staggering global economy, oil prices, the Mexican peso and airline stocks all plunged.

The WHO decision marks the first time the international body has elevated its official estimation of the threat of an influenza pandemic, using a system that was revised in the wake of the 2003 SARS outbreak. The assessment is two notches below the highest alert level, which marks a full-scale pandemic.

"We are not there yet. We have taken a step in that direction. But a pandemic is not considered inevitable at this time," said Keiji Fukuda, the WHO's assistant director general for health security and environment. "The situation is fluid, and the situation continues to evolve."

The level 4 alert could in some circumstances prompt health authorities to launch massive efforts to contain an outbreak, but Fukuda said the virus had spread too widely to make that realistic.

"This virus has already spread quite far," Fukuda said.

Instead, the move was designed to prompt countries to intensify efforts to minimize the spread of the virus by identifying new cases and clusters quickly and taking other measures.

"Given the current situation, the current focus of efforts should be on mitigation efforts," he said.

Based on the recommendations of a 15-member expert panel it convened for an emergency meeting in Geneva, the WHO also decided against seeking to close any international borders, saying that would be too disruptive. But Fukuda urged people who are sick not to travel and said travelers who become ill should seek medical attention.

The agency also said it would work to develop a swine flu vaccine as quickly as possible, but it rejected proposals to try to deploy a swine flu vaccine instead of the vaccine already in development for the next regular flu season.

The moves came as officials at the epicenter of the outbreak in Mexico outlined a deteriorating situation. Although the number of confirmed deaths remained at 20, the suspected death toll rose to 149, and at least 1,995 people had been hospitalized with pneumonia. The news prompted officials to shut down schools nationwide. The capital, Mexico City, where most of the cases have been reported, had already been brought to a virtual standstill by measures intended to contain the outbreak.

U.S. and state health officials, meanwhile, reported that the number of confirmed cases had more than doubled to 45 and recommended that Americans put off unnecessary travel to Mexico. "This is out of an abundance of caution," said Richard E. Besser, acting director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in Atlanta.

"We want to be aggressive and take bold action to minimize the impact on people's health from this infection," Besser said during a briefing with reporters.

Most of the new U.S. cases were tied to an outbreak at a Catholic high school in New York, where more than 100 students got sick last week after several returned from a spring break trip to Mexico. Eight students were confirmed to have swine flu on Sunday, and at least 20 more were determined Monday to have the virus as well, New York officials said. The new cases are the result of additional testing and not a sign that the infection is still spreading there, Besser said. He added that all the cases were mild, except for one that required hospitalization, and that all the students had recovered.

New Jersey officials reportedly identified five new suspected cases. Eleven have been confirmed in California, including two that required hospitalization, along with three in Texas, two in Kansas and one in Ohio. Confirmed or suspected cases have prompted officials in New York, Texas, California, South Carolina and Ohio to close schools.

President Obama said his administration was monitoring the situation closely. "This is obviously a cause for concern and requires a heightened state of alert," he said at an appearance at the National Academy of Sciences. "But it is not a cause for alarm."

U.S. border officials began screening people entering the country for signs of the disease and handing out cards to everyone arriving from affected areas, advising them to be on the lookout for signs of the illness.

Officials also started shipping millions of doses of antiviral drugs from the federal government's strategic stockpile to California, New York, Texas and other states in case they are needed -- action made possible Sunday when the federal government declared an official "public health emergency."

The Department of Health and Human Services also announced that the Food and Drug Administration is working with the CDC to distribute diagnostic tests to state and local public health laboratories by midweek. And Homeland Security Secretary Janet Napolitano said the government will allow the FDA to permit the distribution of drugs such as Tamiflu to populations, such as very young children, that normally are not encouraged to take them.

In addition to the government measures, Besser urged businesses to begin making contingency plans for workers calling in sick and said individuals should help reduce the chances that the virus will spread by taking common-sense steps, such as staying home from work or school if they are sick, washing hands frequently and covering mouths if they sneeze or cough.

"Hopefully this outbreak would not progress, but leaning forward and thinking about what you would do is one of the most important things individuals and communities can undertake right now," he said.

In Maryland, Virginia and the District, health officials activated plans developed in the aftermath of the 2001 terrorist and anthrax attacks. They are monitoring reports from hospitals and clinics and readying hundreds of thousands of doses of medication. Maryland officials said it was inevitable that the flu would hit the Washington region given how infectious it is and the large number of travelers who pass through the area.

The day started with a warning by the European Union's health commissioner against unnecessary travel from Europe to parts of the United States and Mexico where the disease is circulating.

The warning followed Spain's confirmation of its first case, fueling fears that the virus was spreading to Europe. Cases were later confirmed in Scotland as well. An additional 20 cases were being investigated in Spain, along with 17 potential cases in Britain, 10 in New Zealand, and at least one each in France, Sweden, Germany, Switzerland and Israel.

"Personally, I would try to avoid nonessential travel to the areas that are reported to be in the center of the cluster in order to minimize the personal risk and to reduce the potential risk to spread the infection," said Androulla Vassiliou, the E.U. official.

Vassiliou later said she was simply advising Europeans to avoid "unnecessary travel" to affected areas in North America. Canada also has confirmed six cases of swine flu.

The White House, meanwhile, said Mexican authorities did not notify U.S. officials about the swine flu issue in advance of the president's April 16-17 visit, "but we have no reason to believe they withheld any information they had at the time," and U.S. officials praised the Mexican response. "To date Mexican authorities have been exceptionally cooperative and forthcoming," White House homeland security adviser John Brennan said. "There's been very strong cooperation."

White House press secretary Robert Gibbs told reporters that he is confident that the administration is ready to handle the crisis even though dozens of key public health and emergency response jobs in the administration remain vacant.

"Our response is in no way hindered or hampered by not having a permanent secretary at HHS right now," Gibbs said. "Dr. Besser and thousands of people both at CDC and throughout HHS are responding to this. . . . We feel confident with the team that is there now."

We had a brief discussion with Fed and state folks after an earthquake response scenario today... not much to do except to communicate well, make sure you know where all your people are, follow the recommendations for any flu strain, and stay at home if you are sick.

[WhoMikeJames]

Wash your hands...

#1 Rule.

[MadMax]

The world population was only 1.8 billion back then. Assuming the low end of the death estimates (40 million), for only 2.5 mortality rate, essentially every person on earth at the time would have had to have been infected for those numbers to work.
.

Depending on what source you read, 40 million may or may not be the "low end." On others it's 20 million. Including some of the links posted in this very thread, including those in the post you responded to.

[DoitDickau]

Depending on what source you read, 40 million may or may not be the "low end." On others it's 20 million. Including some of the links posted in this very thread, including those in the post you responded to.

Ok, but even assuming it's 20 million deaths, it would take the infection of almost half of the world's population at the time to come to that mortality rate. I haven't seen any estimates that put the infection rate anywhere near that percentage. So again the numbers don't come close to working for a mortality rate that low even in the post you cite.

[Fatty FatBastard]

We're all doomed. I'm only going to eat pork out of spite.

[MadMax]

Ok, but even assuming it's 20 million deaths, it would take the infection of almost half of the world's population at the time to come to that mortality rate. I haven't seen any estimates that put the infection rate anywhere near that percentage. So again the numbers don't come close to working for a mortality rate that low even in the post you cite.

I understand...and yet the sources are all over the place on it. There's no consensus of information on the topic, frankly....that google link I provided shows that. Numbers all over the place. One part says that of the 15,000 people living in Iceland at the time, 10,000 were infected...and 260 died. Small sample size I know. Another part says the US mortality rate was 2.5%. Here's one global estimate from that page:

4. A different estimate of the worldwide death rate to that given by
Johnson and Mueller is found in “In Search of an Enigma: The "Spanish
Lady"” by Rod Daniels, a Mill Hill essay from the UK National
Institute of Medical Research:
http://www.nimr.mrc.ac.uk/millhillessays/1998/influenza1918.htm

“the so-called "Spanish Lady" or "Spanish Flu" pandemic of 1918-19
which infected one billion people, half the world’s population at that
time, and killed between forty and fifty million. This makes it the
most devastating disease of man known, surpassing even the bubonic
plague of the fourteenth century, smallpox in the sixteenth century
and the human immunodeficiency virus/AIDS pandemic that is happening
now.”

11. “The mortality rate was more than two in every hundred who caught
the disease. … Outbreaks swept through all the continents - in India,
mortality was 50 deaths per 1,000 cases [ie 5%].”
From “Flu: A warning from history” BBC News web site, Monday, 17
March, 2003, http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/health/2856447.stm

From another comparison of SARS to the 1918 pandemic:

"SARS is actually deadlier than the 1918 flu virus, killing 4 per cent
of its victims compared with 2.5 per cent."

http://www.globeandmail.com/servlet/ArticleNews/TPStory/LAC/20030405/FCFLUU/Comment/Idx


But the typical influenza epidemics have mortality rates at about .1%. I have no idea which numbers are correct specifically from the Spanish Flu, but I highly doubt it was 20%.

[rocketsjudoka]

We're all doomed. I'm only going to eat pork out of spite.
We have to get them before they get us!

[Rocketman95]

i just got back from cozumel and i feel finalsidjfhasdl;kjf;asdaj;sdlkfja;sdlkjfa.

[rimrocker]

Not a particularly encouraging NYTimes Op-ed from a guy who wrote a well-received history of the 1918 flu...

Where Will the Swine Flu Go Next?
By JOHN M. BARRY
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/04/28/opinion/28barry.html?pagewanted=print

New Orleans

AS the swine flu threatens to become the next pandemic, the biggest questions are whether its transmission from human to human will be sustained and, if so, how virulent it might become. But even if this virus were to peter out soon, there is a strong possibility it would only go underground, quietly continuing to infect some people while becoming better adapted to humans, and then explode around the world.

What happens next is chiefly up to the virus. But it is up to us to create a vaccine as quickly as possible.

Influenza viruses are unpredictable because they are able to mutate so rapidly. That capacity enables them to jump easily from species to species, infecting not only pigs and people but also horses, seals, cats, dogs, tigers and so on. An avian virus responsible for the 1918 pandemic jumped first from birds to humans, then from humans to swine (as well as other animals). Now, and not for the first time, pigs have given a virus back to humans.

Mutability makes even existing, well-known flu viruses unpredictable. A new virus, formed by a combination of several existing ones as this virus is, is even less predictable. After jumping to a new host, influenza can become more or less virulent — in fact, different offshoots could go in opposite directions — before a relatively stable new virus emerges.

Influenza pandemics have occurred as far back in history as we can look, but the four we know about in detail happened in 1889, 1918, 1957 and 1968. The mildest of these, the so-called Hong Kong flu in 1968, killed about 35,000 people in the United States and 700,000 worldwide. Ordinary seasonal influenza, in comparison, now kills 36,000 Americans a year, because the population has a higher proportion of elderly people and others with weak immune systems. (If a virus like the Hong Kong flu hit today, it would probably kill more people for the same reason.)

The worst influenza pandemic, in 1918, killed 675,000 in the United States. And although no one has a reliable worldwide death toll, the lowest reasonable number is about 35 million, and some scientists believe it killed as many as 100 million — at a time when the world’s population was only a quarter of what it is today. The dead included not only the elderly and infants but also robust young adults.

What’s important to keep in mind in assessing the threat of the current outbreak is that all four of the well-known pandemics seem to have come in waves. The 1918 virus surfaced by March and set in motion a spring and summer wave that hit some communities and skipped others. This first wave was extremely mild, more so even than ordinary influenza: of the 10,313 sailors in the British Grand Fleet who became ill, for example, only four died. But autumn brought a second, more lethal wave, which was followed by a less severe third wave in early 1919.

The first wave in 1918 was relatively mild, many experts speculate, because the virus had not fully adapted to humans. And as it did adapt, it also became more lethal. However, there is very good evidence that people who were exposed during the first wave developed immunity — much as people get protection from a modern vaccine.

A similar kind of immune-building process is the most likely explanation for why, in 1918, only 2 percent of those who contracted the flu died. Having been exposed to other influenza viruses, most people had built up some protection. People in isolated regions, including American Indian reservations and Alaskan Inuit villages, had much higher case mortality — presumably because they had less exposure to influenza viruses.

The 1889 pandemic also had a well-defined first wave that was milder than succeeding waves. The 1957 and 1968 pandemics had waves, too, though they were less well defined.

In all four instances, the gap between the time the virus was first recognized and a second, more dangerous wave swelled was about six months. It will take a minimum of four months to produce vaccine in any volume, possibly longer, and much longer than that to produce enough vaccine to protect most Americans. The race has begun.

[aghast]

Not a particularly encouraging NYTimes Op-ed from a guy who wrote a well-received history of the 1918 flu...

His book on the Spanish flu was what scared the bejesus out of me when I first read about this one.

This sounds like good news:
However, there is very good evidence that people who were exposed during the first wave developed immunity — much as people get protection from a modern vaccine.

A similar kind of immune-building process is the most likely explanation for why, in 1918, only 2 percent of those who contracted the flu died. Having been exposed to other influenza viruses, most people had built up some protection. People in isolated regions, including American Indian reservations and Alaskan Inuit villages, had much higher case mortality — presumably because they had less exposure to influenza viruses.

So, if anybody has a particularly nagging cough they've picked up in the past couple of days, or knows anyone who does, party at my place this weekend! Free booze, plus all Kleenex confiscated at the door! Me hablo espanol! Evacuees welcome!

In all four instances, the gap between the time the virus was first recognized and a second, more dangerous wave swelled was about six months. It will take a minimum of four months to produce vaccine in any volume, possibly longer, and much longer than that to produce enough vaccine to protect most Americans. The race has begun.

Let's just hope, when the buzz of this news story dies down, that government & pharmaceutical companies are still compelled to run it.

[vstexas09]

there was a big article on it on the yahoo...2 million could die at the worst...

[Lady_Di]

there was a big article on it on the yahoo...2 million could die at the worst...

uh, care to post the link?

[rimrocker]

New news and a few quotes...

‘Many hundreds’ of kids may have swine flu
New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg also says two people are hospitalized
msnbc.com news services
updated 12:18 p.m. PT, Tues., April 28, 2009

"Many hundreds" of schoolchildren are sick with suspected cases of swine flu, said New York City Health Commissioner Thomas Frieden.

Also Tuesday New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg said two people are hospitalized with suspected swine flu. He said the hospitalizations are separate from the outbreak at a private school in Queens.

The mayor says the hospitalized are a child in the Bronx and an adult in Brooklyn.

Across the country, the Los Angeles County coroner's office was investigating the recent deaths of two men, 33 and 45 years old, for links to swine flu. Coroner's Capt. John Kades said the bodies were being tested but that there has been no confirmation the disease killed them.

Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger has declared a state of emergency that will help California agencies coordinate efforts in response to the outbreak of swine flu.

The virus has killed more than 150 people in Mexico, but there haven't been any confirmed swine flu deaths in the United States.

Health officials say the number of confirmed swine flu cases in the United States has jumped to 68.

The new count includes "at least five who had to go into the hospital," said Dr. Anne Schuchat of the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The hospitalizations include three in California and two in Texas.

The cases are currently in six states. There are 17 new cases in New York City, four more in Texas and three additional cases in California. That brings the total confirmed cases to 45 in New York City, 13 in California, six in Texas, two in Kansas, one in Ohio and one in Indiana.

For days, CDC officials have said they expected to see more confirmed cases — and more severe illnesses. Health officials across the country have stepped up efforts to look for cases, especially among people with flu-like illness who had traveled to Mexico.

CDC is moving forward aggressively with plans to produce a vaccine to protect against the new strain of swine flu, said Dr. Richard Besser, acting director of the CDC, during a Tuesday press conference. Scientists have started growing the "seed stock" of virus that forms the basis of a vaccine.

“Moving forward, vaccine is something we are looking at very intently,” he said.

Test kits are coming to states, so they can perform their own confirmations of swine flu, Besser said. Also, every state has requested their portion of the strategic national stockpile of antiviral drugs, gowns and masks.

“With a new infectious agent, you don’t sit back and wait,” said Besser. “We are in a pre-pandemic period.”

Besser urged people with confirmed cases of swine flu to stay home, and said their family members should stay home, too.

That effectively is a call for voluntary isolation for households in which the virus has been detected. The swine flu appears to be acting like a normal flu virus, which has a fairly high rate of transmission in families, said Besser.

“I fully expect that we will see deaths from this infection,” he said, although he noted that he hadn’t heard of the suspected deaths in California.

A handful of schools around the country have closed over swine flu fears and some people are wearing masks, but it’s mostly business as usual in the U.S., even at border crossings into Mexico.

While Asian countries deployed thermal sensors at airports to screen passengers from North America for signs of fever, there have been no extra screenings at the U.S. border with the country considered ground zero for the outbreak.

No deaths have been reported in the U.S. so far. In contrast, there have been over 150 deaths in neighboring Mexico, ground zero for the illness.

World health officials said they suspect American patients may have transmitted the virus to others in the U.S. Health Organization spokesman Gregory Hartl said WHO was waiting for U.S. authorities to announce that a number of students at a New York high school have passed the virus on to one another after their return from a spring vacation in Mexico. “I think we might have one other instance in the U.S.,” he said.

President Barack Obama on Monday characterized the U.S. cases as a cause for concern but not "a cause for alarm." The federal government said travel warnings for trips to Mexico would remain in place as long as swine flu is detected.

The Obama administration on Tuesday defended its "passive surveillance" policy to deal with the threat, saying that it's measured, cautious border monitoring makes sense.

Homeland Security Secretary Janet Napolitano said Tuesday that more draconian enforcement steps are not yet necessary, even as she acknowledged that officials "anticipate confirmed cases in more states." She reiterated President Obama's stance that people are justifiably concerned but need not be alarmed by it.

"We anticipate that there will be confirmed cases in more states as we go through the coming days," Napolitano said on NBC's "Today" show Tuesday.

Napolitano assured of a "very broad multi-agency federal response" and said that she and a number of Cabinet members had met into the night Monday to discuss strategy. She also said the administration wouldn't wait for a World Health Organization declaration of a pandemic to deliver a pandemic-like response.

Noting that the international health body has elevated its pandemic alert status to Level 4 of a 6-step process, Napolitano said: "We're prepared as if there were a pandemic. We're not waiting."

Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, testified before a Senate subcommittee Tuesday that this hybrid flu — with pig, bird and human genetic components — has "pandemic potential."

"This is a brand new virus that we've never seen before," he said. " But what we're focusing on is to contain the spread of this."

While the virus has killed people in Mexico, but so far, not in the U.S., it's too soon to say that it won't, said the CDC's Schuchat.

"I think we're at early days here at what we're seeing in the U.S.," she said. "I don't think we can be confident we won't see severe spectrum of disease here."

In the immediate future, cases may begin to level off and dwindle, but then return during the tradition flu season in the fall and winter, as the 1918 flu did, Schuchat said.

"We might see an improvement just like we do with the seasonal flu but we need to be aware this strain is out there and it might come back in the fall," she said. "We're preparing the country for a period of uncertainty and a commitment that we'll stay with you."

Scattered protective steps
Scattered protective steps were being taken across the U.S. A few schools were closed — in Cibolo and New Braunfels, Texas; Claremont and Mira Mesa, Calif.; and Columbia, S.C. — and residents of Guadalupe County, outside San Antonio, were asked to avoid public gatherings and stay home if they are ill.

Security guards at all entrances of the University of Chicago Medical Center required anyone walking in to use a liquid disinfectant. At Rush University Medical Center, anyone seeking treatment for fever, runny nose and coughs was being tested for flu with nasal swabs.

Elsewhere, there were signs of growing unease among the public, even in places where there was no immediately known cause for alarm.

Pharmacies in Manhattan reported that paper face masks were selling by the box. One pharmacy owner said he had to order more from his wholesale supplier for the first time since the SARS epidemic six years ago.

Students at a Chicago school were instructed not to shake hands with anyone, and Southern Illinois University urged students to wash their hands frequently and cover their mouths when coughing. There were no known swine flu cases in Illinois.

And in New Mexico, which also had no reported cases, health officials were so besieged by calls from concerned citizens that they set up a swine flu hot line.

Richard Besser, the acting director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, said his agency was looking for evidence of the disease spreading and probing for ways to control and prevent it.

The government also issued an advisory warning travelers to cancel any nonessential visits to Mexico. It also took issue with a European Union health official who said the same thing about travel to parts of the U.S.

At the White House, a swine flu update, delivered by White House homeland security adviser John Brennan, was added to the president's daily intelligence briefing.

FDA issues emergency flu drug rules
The Food and Drug Administration issued emergency guidance late Monday that allows certain antiviral drugs to be used in a broader range of the population in case mass dosing is needed to deal with a widespread swine flu outbreak.

The agency originally approved the use of the antiviral drug Tamiflu for the prevention and treatment of influenza in adults and children age 1 and older. Another antiviral drug, Relenza, was originally approved to treat people 7 and older and to help prevent flu in those 5 and older.

The White House also aimed to sidestep a potentially problematic diplomatic headache. Press secretary Robert Gibbs declined to discuss whether Obama officials have any concern about when Mexico notified the U.S. of the outbreak — particularly significant given the president's trip to Mexico on April 16 and 17.

The White House said Monday that its medical unit asked if Mexican health officials and U.S. Embassy medical staff had any concerns about infectious disease and were told they did not. But a White House statement said, "We have no reason to believe they withheld any information they had at the time."

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/30453688/

[BmwM3]

Yes, can you post the link and give me a shout out. I sit behind you in Mrs. Smith's English class.

[aghast]

First US casualty reported.

From Reuters: "Texas baby first flu death reported outside Mexico (http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSTRE53N22820090429)"
By Jason Lange

MEXICO CITY (Reuters) - A baby in Texas became the first confirmed death outside Mexico on Wednesday from the new H1N1 flu strain.

A U.S. government official said a 23-month-old child in the southern state had died from the virus, which Germany said it had found in three cases -- the eighth country to do so.

There were no further details about the death in the United States, most of whose 65 confirmed cases of swine flu have proved mild.

Nearly a week after the threat of a pandemic emerged in Mexico, that country remained the hardest hit, with up to 159 people killed.

France said it would seek on Thursday a European Union ban on all flights to Mexico because of the flu. The EU, like the United States and Canada, has already advised against nonessential travel to the popular tourist destination.

Cases have now been confirmed in the United States, Canada, New Zealand, Israel, Britain, Spain and, on Wednesday, Germany.

Germany's infectious diseases agency found swine flu in a man and a woman in their late 30s in Bavaria, and a 22-year-old woman in Hamburg at the other end of the country, all of whom had recently returned from Mexico.

The World Health Organization said it may raise its pandemic alert level to phase five -- the second highest -- if it was confirmed that infected people in at least two countries were spreading the new disease to other people in a sustained way.

Before the U.S. death was reported, Keiji Fukuda, acting WHO assistant director for health security and environment, said it could be a "very mild pandemic," adding, however, that influenza "moves in ways we cannot predict."

Stock markets in Asia and Europe rose on Wednesday, partly on optimism the world could be spared a major deadly pandemic.

[KingCheetah]

Putting things in perspective...
_____

Regular flu has killed thousands since January

An outbreak of swine flu that is suspected in more than 150 deaths in Mexico and has sickened dozens of people in the United States and elsewhere has grabbed the attention of a nervous public and of medical officials worried the strain will continue to mutate and spread.

Experts are nervous that, as a new strain, the swine flu will be harder to stop because there aren't any vaccines to fight it.

But even if there are swine-flu deaths outside Mexico -- and medical experts say there very well may be -- the virus would have a long way to go to match the roughly 36,000 deaths that seasonal influenza causes in the United States each year.

"That happens on an annual basis," Dr. Brian Currie said Tuesday. Currie is vice president and medical director at Montefiore Medical Center in Bronx, New York.

Since January, more than 13,000 people have died of complications from seasonal flu, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's weekly report on the causes of death in the nation.

No fewer than 800 flu-related deaths were reported in any week between January 1 and April 18, the most recent week for which figures were available.

The report looks at deaths in the 122 largest cities in the United States.

Worldwide, the annual death toll from the flu is estimated to be between 250,000 and 500,000.

full article (http://www.cnn.com/2009/HEALTH/04/28/regular.flu/index.html)

[DonnyMost]

Putting things in perspective...
_____

Regular flu has killed thousands since January

An outbreak of swine flu that is suspected in more than 150 deaths in Mexico and has sickened dozens of people in the United States and elsewhere has grabbed the attention of a nervous public and of medical officials worried the strain will continue to mutate and spread.

Experts are nervous that, as a new strain, the swine flu will be harder to stop because there aren't any vaccines to fight it.

But even if there are swine-flu deaths outside Mexico -- and medical experts say there very well may be -- the virus would have a long way to go to match the roughly 36,000 deaths that seasonal influenza causes in the United States each year.

"That happens on an annual basis," Dr. Brian Currie said Tuesday. Currie is vice president and medical director at Montefiore Medical Center in Bronx, New York.

Since January, more than 13,000 people have died of complications from seasonal flu, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's weekly report on the causes of death in the nation.

No fewer than 800 flu-related deaths were reported in any week between January 1 and April 18, the most recent week for which figures were available.

The report looks at deaths in the 122 largest cities in the United States.

Worldwide, the annual death toll from the flu is estimated to be between 250,000 and 500,000.

full article (http://www.cnn.com/2009/HEALTH/04/28/regular.flu/index.html)

Not very reassuring, since we know what the regular flu does already.

This is more about fear of the unknown and the potential to worsen.

It's like saying that because gang violence in america kills X number of people per year that we shouldn't be worrying about a potential war that is brewing somewhere...

[ima_drummer2k]

Not very reassuring,
How about this from the Sci Guy?

Cautious optimism on swine flu?

Today I spoke with several infectious disease physicians and researchers, and they all expressed cautious optimism that the swine flu outbreak we've been discussing may not reach pandemic proportions.

One of the reasons for their optimism is that despite stepped up surveillance efforts around the world, it does not yet appear as though the disease has begun spreading exponentially. It's far too early to say the swine flu outbreak will burn out, but it's OK at this point to have some optimism.

There's another good reason to believe the disease may begin burning out: Influenza is characterized by seasonal patterns, and it tends to go away in April or May, only to return in the fall and winter. There are lots of theories as to why this happens, but we really don't know why.

The last two virus outbreaks with pandemic potential, the spread of H5N1 avian influenza from 2004 to 2007 and SARS outbreak of 2003, have undergone this kind of fluctuation, which saw a rise of viral activity until mid-May, then declined dramatically through August, only to begin rising again in September.

"I'm cautiously optimistic that we will begin seeing a decline in swine flu cases by mid-May or in a couple of weeks," said C. Ed Hsu, director of Preventive Health Informatics and SpaTial Analysis at the University of Texas Health Science Center.

The Spanish Flu also followed a similar course, with an early wave in the spring of 1918 before striking full force in the fall of 1918.

"That's what happened in 1918, the classic Spanish flu," said Dr. Herbert DuPont, director of the Center for Infectious Diseases at UT-Houston. "There's reason to believe this will happen again this time."

Any similarity to the 1918 pandemic may scare some people, but it actually may provide some reassurance.

That's because scientists and public health officials can now genetically identify the virus in circulation, and if they believe it will be a threat this fall they can incorporate it into the vaccine that will soon be developed for the 2009-2010 flu season. In other words, if this particular swine variant comes back in the winter, the new flu shot may protect against it.

Such biological weapons of mass protection weren't available in 1918, but they might save plenty of of lives this year.

LINK (http://blogs.chron.com/sciguy/archives/2009/04/swine_flu_might.html)
Sounds like this thing may be about to calm down. And by the time it starts back up again in the fall, we'll be ready for it.

[MadMax]

How about this from the Sci Guy?


Sounds like this thing may be about to calm down. And by the time it starts back up again in the fall, we'll be ready for it.

I read that last night and I thought it was funny that the claim was:
"hey, this is just like what happened with the spanish flu, so i'm optimistic!" :D

[farrisdabis]

First official US swine flu death. 23 month old toddler. IN HOUSTON.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090429/ap_on_he_me/med_swine_flu

WASHINGTON – A 23-month-old Texas toddler became the first confirmed swine flu death outside of Mexico as authorities around the world struggled to contain a growing global health menace that has also swept Germany onto the roster of afflicted nations. Officials say the death was in Houston.
Kathy Barton, a spokeswoman for the Houston Health and Human Services Department, said Wednesday that the child had traveled with family from Mexico to Brownsville in South Texas. The child became ill in Brownsville and was taken to a Houston hospital and died Monday night, she said.
"Even though we've been expecting this, it is very, very sad," Dr. Richard Besser, acting chief of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, said Wednesday of the infant's death. "As a pediatrician and a parent, my heart goes out to the family."
President Barack Obama said this morning that Americans should know the government is doing all it can to control virus. Obama also says schools should consider closing if the spread of the swine flu virus worsens.
Canada, Austria, New Zealand, Israel, Spain, Britain and Germany also have reported cases of swine flu sickness. Deaths reported so far have been limited to Mexico, and now the U.S.
As the United States grappled with this widening health crisis, Besser went from network to network Wednesday morning to give an update on what the Obama administration is doing. He said authorities essentially are still "trying to learn more about this strain of the flu." His appearances as Germany reported its first cases of swine flu infection, with three victims.
"It's very important that people take their concern and channel it into action," Besser said, adding that "it is crucial that people understand what they need to do if symptoms appear.
"I don't think it (the reported death in Texas) indicates any change in the strain," he said. "We see with any flu virus a spectrum of disease symptoms."
Asked why the problem seems so much more severe in Mexico, Besser said U.S. officials "have teams on the ground, a tri-national team in Mexico, working with Canada and Mexico, to try and understand those differences, because they can be helpful as we plan and implement our control strategies."
Sixty-six infections had been reported in the United States before the report of the toddler's death in Texas.
The world has no vaccine to prevent infection but U.S. health officials aim to have a key ingredient for one ready in early May, the big step that vaccine manufacturers are awaiting. But even if the World Health Organization ordered up emergency vaccine supplies — and that decision hasn't been made yet — it would take at least two more months to produce the initial shots needed for human safety testing.
"We're working together at 100 miles an hour to get material that will be useful," Dr. Jesse Goodman, who oversees the Food and Drug Administration's swine flu work, told The Associated Press.
The U.S. is shipping to states not only enough anti-flu medication for 11 million people, but also masks, hospital supplies and flu test kits. President Barack Obama asked Congress for $1.5 billion in emergency funds to help build more drug stockpiles and monitor future cases, as well as help international efforts to avoid a full-fledged pandemic.
"It's a very serious possibility, but it is still too early to say that this is inevitable," the WHO's flu chief, Dr. Keiji Fukuda, told a telephone news conference.
Cuba and Argentina banned flights to Mexico, where swine flu is suspected of killing more than 150 people and sickening well over 2,000. In a bit of good news, Mexico's health secretary, Jose Cordova, late Tuesday called the death toll there "more or less stable."
Mexico City, one of the world's largest cities, has taken drastic steps to curb the virus' spread, starting with shutting down schools and on Tuesday expanding closures to gyms and swimming pools and even telling restaurants to limit service to takeout. People who venture out tend to wear masks in hopes of protection.
The number of confirmed swine flu cases in the United States rose to 66 in six states, with 45 in New York, 11 in California, six in Texas, two in Kansas and one each in Indiana and Ohio, but cities and states suspected more. In New York, the city's health commissioner said "many hundreds" of schoolchildren were ill at a school where some students had confirmed cases.
The WHO argues against closing borders to stem the spread, and the U.S. — although checking arriving travelers for the ill who may need care — agrees it's too late for that tactic.
"Sealing a border as an approach to containment is something that has been discussed and it was our planning assumption should an outbreak of a new strain of influenza occur overseas. We had plans for trying to swoop in and knockout or quench an outbreak if it were occurring far from our borders. That's not the case here," Besser told a telephone briefing of Nevada-based health providers and reporters. "The idea of trying to limit the spread to Mexico is not realistic or at all possible."
"Border controls do not work. Travel restrictions do not work," WHO spokesman Gregory Hartl said in Geneva, recalling the SARS epidemic earlier in the decade that killed 774 people, mostly in Asia, and slowed the global economy.
Authorities sought to keep the crisis in context: Flu deaths are common around the world. In the U.S. alone, the CDC says about 36,000 people a year die of flu-related causes. Still, the CDC calls the new strain a combination of pig, bird and human viruses for which people may have limited natural immunity.
Hence the need for a vaccine. Using samples of the flu taken from people who fell ill in Mexico and the U.S., scientists are engineering a strain that could trigger the immune system without causing illness. The hope is to get that ingredient — called a "reference strain" in vaccine jargon — to manufacturers around the second week of May, so they can begin their own laborious production work, said CDC's Dr. Ruben Donis, who is leading that effort.
Vaccine manufacturers are just beginning production for next winter's regular influenza vaccine, which protects against three human flu strains. The WHO wants them to stay with that course for now — it won't call for mass production of a swine flu vaccine unless the outbreak worsens globally. But sometimes new flu strains pop up briefly at the end of one flu season and go away only to re-emerge the next fall, and at the very least there should be a vaccine in time for next winter's flu season, Dr. Anthony Fauci, the National Institutes of Health's infectious diseases chief, said Tuesday.
"Right now it's moving very rapidly," he said of the vaccine development.

We're all ****ed.

[Falcons Talon]

Baby came from Brownsville...where do I live? Brownsville...right on the border.

Ugh.

[aghast]

Sounds like this thing may be about to calm down. And by the time it starts back up again in the fall, we'll be ready for it.

There does seem to be an emerging consensus, that this will percolate until reappearing (in some slightly mutated form) next flu season. That's still not exactly a rosy scenario, however. If the second wave of this stuff is anything like the incredibly lethal second wave of the Spanish Flu (a tremendously big if, if the reports of the deaths in Mexico continue to prove aberrant), we still have a major problem.

I don't believe we've ever manufactured 300 million dosages of vaccine in this country, given only a few months lead time. Already, in the past few flu seasons, there were reports of vaccine shortages, for the smaller percentage of the population who bothers to get them.

Even if the government & pharmaceutical companies were able to produce a vaccine by next flu season, they would still need to band together and synthesize 300 million doses, to cover most or all Americans. We'd need to institute something akin to a mandatory nationwide vaccination program, ignoring those who deny the risk and the Jenny McCarthys who cry vaccine safety (as happened in the 1976 false alarm).

Even if that occured, globally, I don't think there's even a remote possibility of creating 6 billion plus vaccines by winter. So, the industrialized world might be okay, but the rest of the world would be left to suffer?

Without such a national vaccine program, 40,000 US deaths would likely remain the baseline for potential deaths next winter from this thing, assuming it sticks around as a weakened strain. Those forty thousand are the weak, young and elderly, who cannot handle the normal influenza illness. (They are the ones currently instructed to get flu vaccines.) They are the zebras in the nature videos, coltish, or graying with pronounced limps; when the lions catch up to them, it's understood to be part of the natural order.

On top of that, add the people in Mexico City, reported to be healthy adults with sound immune systems, who after contracting one strain of this flu drowned in their own lungs. They were healthy one moment, then a few days later they drowned in their own lungs. If that stuff is real, and it gets out before a vaccine can be mass-produced, or if present antivirals prove ineffective (I believe Napolitano stated the other day that we have 50 million instances of Tamiflu in storage), whether it be tomorrow or next flu season, you still have to worry about the remainder of the zebra herd.

[Invisible Fan]

Healthy lungs get targeted?

Time to start chain smoking.

[JeopardE]

http://img520.imageshack.us/img520/6241/swineflu.jpg

[rocketsjudoka]

On top of that, add the people in Mexico City, reported to be healthy adults with sound immune systems, who after contracting one strain of this flu drowned in their own lungs. They were healthy one moment, then a few days later they drowned in their own lungs. If that stuff is real, and it gets out before a vaccine can be mass-produced, or if present antivirals prove ineffective (I believe Napolitano stated the other day that we have 50 million instances of Tamiflu in storage), whether it be tomorrow or next flu season, you still have to worry about the remainder of the zebra herd.

I remember hearing that this was the same situation with Avian flu, that seemingly the ones who should be the most healthy suffer more. One explanation that I heard was that the immune system goes into overdrive to fight the infection and its that counter reaction that ends up killing the patient. So someone who has a weaker immune system is oddly safer since it is a more measured response from the body to the infection.

This is just from what I recall but I will see if I can find something about that.

That said its still a good idea to exercise, rest, and eat right to keep your immune system as strong as it can be.

[the futants]

from 1976...

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[aghast]

I remember hearing that this was the same situation with Avian flu, that seemingly the ones who should be the most healthy suffer more. One explanation that I heard was that the immune system goes into overdrive to fight the infection and its that counter reaction that ends up killing the patient. So someone who has a weaker immune system is oddly safer since it is a more measured response from the body to the infection.

This is just from what I recall but I will see if I can find something about that.

You're right; it's called a cytokine storm (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cytokine_storm#Role_in_pandemic_deaths). It's what made the Spanish flu so deadly 90 years ago, and the reports of similar deaths in Mexico are what make me pay attention to this one. However, to me, "healthy people drowning inside their own lungs" sounds a lot more terrifying than "immune overreaction" or "cytokine storm." Although, as stated earlier, the latter would make a pretty kick*** band name. But, if things go south, you'd end up having to change your name, like Anthrax (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anthrax_(band)) did after the postal attacks in 2001.


That said its still a good idea to exercise, rest, and eat right to keep your immune system as strong as it can be.
Healthy lungs get targeted?

Time to start chain smoking.

Bah. For my two cents, Invisible Fan has the right idea. We're all playing chess with the Reaper anyway. Eat, drink and be merry. Immune suppression away!

[rocketsjudoka]

Bah. For my two cents, Invisible Fan has the right idea. We're all playing chess with the Reaper anyway. Eat, drink and be merry. Immune suppression away!

Howabout its easier to pick up chicks if you have a healthy immune system since biologically we are more likely to look for mates that are physically healthier. :p

[aghast]

Howabout its easier to pick up chicks if you have a healthy immune system since biologically we are more likely to look for mates that are physically healthier. :p

Not if they match you drink-for-drink and smoke-for-smoke. The walk of shame is not a morning jog, good sir.

[rimrocker]

Latest from CDC, which now reports 91 confirmed cases in the US (20 to 64 to 91 over the last three days if you're counting).

The outbreak of disease in people caused by a new influenza virus of swine origin continues to grow in the United States and internationally. Today, CDC reports additional confirmed human infections, hospitalizations and the nation’s first fatality from this outbreak. The more recent illnesses and the reported death suggest that a pattern of more severe illness associated with this virus may be emerging in the U.S. Most people will not have immunity to this new virus and, as it continues to spread, more cases, more hospitalizations and more deaths are expected in the coming days and weeks.

CDC has implemented its emergency response. The agency’s goals are to reduce transmission and illness severity, and provide information to help health care providers, public health officials and the public address the challenges posed by the new virus. Yesterday, CDC issued new interim guidance for clinicians on how to care for children and pregnant women who may be infected with this virus. Young children and pregnant women are two groups of people who are at high risk of serious complications from seasonal influenza. In addition, CDC’s Division of the Strategic National Stockpile (SNS) continues to send antiviral drugs, personal protective equipment, and respiratory protection devices to all 50 states and U.S. territories to help them respond to the outbreak. The swine influenza A (H1N1) virus is susceptible to the prescription antiviral drugs oseltamivir and zanamivir. This is a rapidly evolving situation and CDC will provide updated guidance and new information as it becomes available.
http://www.cdc.gov/swineflu/

[rocketsjudoka]

Not if they match you drink-for-drink and smoke-for-smoke. The walk of shame is not a morning jog, good sir.

Well I guess you are just looking to pick up different women than I am.

[MadMax]

http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/front/6398202.html

UIL has cancelled ALL sporting events for Texas high schools until May 11th.

[Tsquare]

Man this stuff is starting to get real serious now. It's already caused a 9 page thread on Clutchfans, jeeze. :rolleyes:

[rocketsjudoka]

Man this stuff is starting to get real serious now. It's already caused a 9 page thread on Clutchfans, jeeze. :rolleyes:

Yes its reaching Anne Hathaway and "Girl at Bus Stop" Level!

[WhoMikeJames]

I can't believe they cancelled all athletic events for high schools, what an overreaction.

[MadMax]

I can't believe they cancelled all athletic events for high schools, what an overreaction.

they have 5 school districts already closed down in texas. i think that's part of what drived this.

talking to people in education....they're being briefed on this daily now....and one i talked to said that she would be shocked if they didn't miss some school in the next few weeks as this thing starts to spread.

funny because i read an article yesterday that suggested the united states has been very lax in its response to this virus compared to the rest of the world.

[Lady_Di]

What about workplaces? I wanna work from home for two weeks! :D

[SwoLy-D]

I might be late to this party... and I tried to stay away but... did you guys/gals know that ALL SCHOOLs in MEXICO are closed and have been closed since FRIDAY? :( This is pretty sad.

The kids don't know what to do while they're OUT of school.

Just saw this in the CHRON: Texas shuts down high school competitions until May 11 :eek: http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/front/6398202.html

[droxford]

We should all be very afraid of
<strike>SARS
The Bird Flu
Mad Cow Disease
West Nile Virus</strike>
The Swine Flu.

Why aren't you afraid?!?

:rolleyes:
&nbsp;

[rocketsjudoka]

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/30398682?GT1=43001

WHO raises swine flu alert to 'pandemic level 5'
Global outbreak deemed imminent; vaccine efforts will be ramped up

The World Health Organization has raised its pandemic alert for swine flu to the second highest level, meaning that it believes a global outbreak of the disease is imminent.

WHO says the phase 5 alert means there is sustained human to human spread in at least two countries. It also signals that efforts to produce a vaccine will be ramped up.

WHO has confirmed human cases of swine flu in Mexico, the United States, Canada, Britain, Israel, New Zealand and Spain. Mexico and the U.S. have reported deaths.

WHO Director-General Margaret Chan made the decision Wednesday to raise the alert level from phase 4 — signifying transmission in only one country — after reviewing the latest scientific evidence on the outbreak.

As fear and uncertainty about the disease ricocheted around the globe, nations took all sorts of precautions, some more useful than others.

Britain closed a school after a 12-year-old girl was found to have the disease. Egypt slaughtered all its pigs and the central African nation of Gabon became the latest nation to ban pork imports, despite assurances that swine flu was not related to eating pork.

Cuba eased its flight ban, deciding just to block flights coming in from Mexico. And Asian nations greeted returning airport travelers with teams of medical workers and carts of disinfectants, eager to keep swine flu from infecting their continent.

In Mexico City, the epicenter of the epidemic, the mayor said Wednesday the outbreak seemed to be stabilizing and he was considering easing the citywide shutdown that closed schools, restaurants, concert halls and sports arenas.

Swine flu is suspected of killing more than 150 people in Mexico and sickening over 2,400 there.

Nearly 100 cases have now been confirmed in the U.S. across 11 states, and health officials reported Wednesday that a 23-month-old Mexican boy had died in Texas.

Across Europe, Germany confirmed three swine flu cases and Austria one, while the number of confirmed cases rose to five in Britain and ten in Spain.

WHO conducted a scientific review Wednesday to determine exactly what is known about how the disease spreads, how it affects human health and how it can be treated.

Dr. Nikki Shindo, a WHO flu expert, said the review would focus on the large trove of data coming from Mexico and from a school in New York City that has been hard-hit by the outbreak.

Germany’s national disease control center, the Robert Koch Institute, said the country’s three cases include a 22-year-old woman hospitalized in Hamburg, a man in his late 30s at a hospital in Regensburg, north of Munich, and a 37-year-old woman from another Bavarian town. All three had recently returned from Mexico.

Austria’s health ministry said a 28-year-old woman who recently returned from a monthlong trip to Guatemala via Mexico City and Miami has the virus but is recovering.

British Prime Minister Gordon Brown said health officials were ordering extra medicine and “several million more” face masks to deal with the virus.

British media reports, citing an unidentified European surgical mask manufacturer, said the U.K. was seeking 32 million masks to protect its health workers from a possible pandemic.

“We’ve decided to build stocks of anti-virals, from 35 million to 50 million,” Brown said, adding that the government had put in enhanced airport checks and was going to mail swine flu information leaflets to every household in Britain.

In addition to a couple in Scotland who got swine flu on their Mexican honeymoon, new British cases included a 12-year-old girl in the southwest English town of Torbay. Brown said her school had been closed as a precaution.

He said the other two cases were adults in London and in Birmingham. All three had visited Mexico, were receiving anti-viral drugs and were responding well to treatment, Brown said.

French President Nicolas Sarkozy met with Cabinet ministers to discuss swine flu and his health minister said France will ask the European Union to suspend flights to Mexico.

The U.S., the European Union and other countries have discouraged nonessential travel to Mexico. Cuba suspended all regular and charter flights from Mexico to the island but was still allowing airlines to return travelers to Mexico.

New Zealand’s number of swine flu cases rose to 14, 13 of them among a school group that recently returned from Mexico. Officials say the swine flu strain infecting the students is the same as that in Mexico. All were responding well to antiviral drugs and in voluntary quarantine at home.

New Zealand has 44 other possible cases, with tests under way.

Mexico was taking drastic measures to fight the outbreak. It closed all archaeological sites and allowed restaurants in the capital to only serve takeout food in an aggressive bid to stop gatherings where the virus can spread. Schools remained closed until at least May 6.

A regional beach soccer championship in Mexico was postponed and all Mexican first-division soccer games this weekend will be played with no audiences. Cruise lines were avoiding Mexican ports and holiday tour groups are canceling holiday charter flights there.

The Philippine health chief appealed to dozens of Filipino legislators to abandon plans to visit Las Vegas to cheer for boxing idol Manny Pacquiao — even though Las Vegas is more than 300 miles (480 kilometers) from the Mexican border.

Egypt’s government ordered the slaughter of all pigs in the country as a precaution, though no swine flu cases have been reported there. Egypt’s overwhelmingly Muslim population does not eat pork, but farmers raise up to 350,000 pigs for its Christian minority.

In Australia, officials were testing more than 100 people with flu symptoms for the virus and the government gave health authorities wide powers to contain contagious diseases.

“(We can make) sure that people are isolated and perhaps detained if they don’t cooperate and are showing symptoms,” said Health Minister Nicola Roxon.

[Shroopy2]

Whether the need to over prepare or not, my opinion is HOW isn't the 1918 Spanish Flu a bigger deal than it should be?

We have 9-11 as a reminder, but a for disease that affected 1/4 of THE WORLD'S population why cant "1918" be emdedded in our minds? There should be a poster of that in every darn building with just the simple goal

WASH YOUR HANDS
or your dirty hands will kill millions

[Lady_Di]

Live chat recap here...

http://blogs.chron.com/sciguy/archives/2009/04/live_chat_on_sw.html

See this part:

Eric Berger: I've just recieved word that the samples sent in Monday by the city of Houston for swine influenza came back negative. Kathy Barton with Houston added that the city sent in additional samples from Tuesday and has not yet heard back on them, and that she does eventually expect some positive confirmations.

Therefore, at this time, there are still no confirmed cases of the illness that were acquired in the Houston region.

[Supermac34]

From Chron.com chat:

12:39 [Comment From Amanda]
I do not agree with the CDC counting the death in Texas as a death for Texas. Any thoughts?


12:39 Eric Berger: Yes. Let's secede.


HA!

[rocketsjudoka]

Whether the need to over prepare or not, my opinion is HOW isn't the 1918 Spanish Flu a bigger deal than it should be?

We have 9-11 as a reminder, but a for disease that affected 1/4 of THE WORLD'S population why cant "1918" be emdedded in our minds? There should be a poster of that in every darn building with just the simple goal

WASH YOUR HANDS
or your dirty hands will kill millions

WWI sort of got in the way of history.

Plagues don't often make history as while they are awful they are hard to consider as historical incidents and also lack the romance of great figures that we associate history with. For example how many people know that Memphis was almost abandoned in 1878 because of a yellow fever epidemic?

[vstexas09]

holy crap....level 5...kinda freaking out a bit...

[Hmm]

holy crap....level 5...kinda freaking out a bit...

http://www.best-horror-movies.com/images/STandDVDcover.jpg

[droxford]

I can hardly wait until the South Park episode makes fun of the alarm-ism on this.
&nbsp;

[Supermac34]

I think I read that Mexico's leadership is saying that they are already seeing the number of cases leveling off.

[Asian Sensation]

holy crap....level 5...kinda freaking out a bit...

How many levels are there?

[adeelsiddiqui]

How many levels are there?


WHO PANDEMIC ALERT PHASES



Phase 1: No infections in humans are being caused by viruses circulating in animals.



Phase 2: Animal flu virus causes infection in humans, and is a potential pandemic threat.



Phase 3: Flu causes sporadic cases in people, but no significant human-to-human transmission.











Phase 4: Human-to-human transmission and community-level outbreaks.









Phase 5: Human-to-human transmission in at least two countries. Strong signal pandemic imminent.











Phase 6: Virus spreads to another country in a different region. Global pandemic under way.



Post-peak: Pandemic activity appears to be decreasing though second wave possible.
Post-pandemic: activity returns to normal, seasonal flu levels.

[BmwM3]

How many levels are there?

There is 6. Since 5th is the second highest level.

[Asian Sensation]

......... So we are close to the end? End meaning end of the levels.

[moestavern19]

lol @ Egypt deciding that killing their entire pig population would prevent them from getting a disease communicable from HUMANS.

[MadMax]

I think I read that Mexico's leadership is saying that they are already seeing the number of cases leveling off.

I think they're expecting that, frankly. They're more concerned about it re-emerging in the fall during traditional flu season. But everywhere I've read suggests they expect this to die down as we get into warmer days.

[Asian Sensation]

lol @ Egypt deciding that killing their entire pig population would prevent them from getting a disease communicable from HUMANS.

Does this mean there's gonna be a sale on Baby back ribs and bacon?

[Shroopy2]

WWI sort of got in the way of history.

Plagues don't often make history as while they are awful they are hard to consider as historical incidents and also lack the romance of great figures that we associate history with. For example how many people know that Memphis was almost abandoned in 1878 because of a yellow fever epidemic?
Right. And people would rather move on from that kind of extremely gloomy history trying to forget it... (except the Holocaust).

Not saying it should even be a top 10 event or anything. More suggesting even just for a widespread cheesy public service announcencement for getting the kids to behave (kids being big time germ spreaders), or even adults, wouldnt hurt to toss a little 1918 in there. Sure they thought of it but oh well now, time to prepare the bunker

[El Toro]

lol @ Egypt deciding that killing their entire pig population would prevent them from getting a disease communicable from HUMANS.

Well technically it's communicable from pig-to-pig, pig-to-human and now human-to-human. Egypt's trying to stop the spread from pig-to-human but it's too late for that now that there's global evidence of human-to-human transmission.

[moestavern19]

Well technically it's communicable from pig-to-pig, pig-to-human and now human-to-human. Egypt's trying to stop the spread from pig-to-human but it's too late for that now that there's global evidence of human-to-human transmission.


Right, I was just saying way to kill all the pigs when it would probably still get there via human-human.

[B-Bob]

does a pig sound like a human when it coughs?

[peleincubus]

does a pig sound like a human when it coughs?

charlotte does

[Hmm]

charlotte does

charlotte was the spider....

[moestavern19]

charlotte does

Fail?

[Landlord Landry]

charlotte was the spider....

charlotte also talked and sang like a human, and near the end ......coughed like a human.

you fail.

[finalsbound]

charlotte does

fail!!!

sorry, wanted to pile on like a douche.

[Major]

WHO PANDEMIC ALERT PHASES

Phase 6: Virus spreads to another country in a different region. Global pandemic under way.


Am I wrong or should we have been at Phase 6 since the weekend? Don't we have cases in Spain and Australia already?

[El Toro]

Right, I was just saying way to kill all the pigs when it would probably still get there via human-human.

ah yes, touché

[Supermac34]

Am I wrong or should we have been at Phase 6 since the weekend? Don't we have cases in Spain and Australia already?

I think they have to determine that there has been human to human spreading of the virus in the new region, not just a carrier bringing it in.

Up until now, the disease had been contracted in Mexico/US and the person has ended up in some other part of the world. They would then have to infect new people and have outbreaks there, and so far, those single cases haven't seemed to spread.

It got raised to 5 because people have now been infected IN the US, not just been infected in Mexico and carried it here.

[Major]

Gotcha - that makes sense!

[Hmm]

charlotte also talked and sang like a human, and near the end ......coughed like a human.

you fail.


read the post he was responding to... "pig" was the subject of interest..

[WhoMikeJames]

http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/health/6399725.html

First confirmed swine flu patient in Houston... Great.

The Houston area’s first local resident to be diagnosed with swine flu has been confirmed in Fort Bend County.
Officials at Fort Bend County’s health department said early Wednesday evening that they just received confirmation of the case from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
The resident was not hospitalized and is recovering, said the officials. They said they would provide more details after talking to the family.
The confirmation came a half a day after the CDC announced that a nearly 2-year-old Mexico City boy who fell ill in Brownsville and was transported for treatment at Texas Children’s Hospital in Houston was the first U.S. death.

[aghast]

Whether the need to over prepare or not, my opinion is HOW isn't the 1918 Spanish Flu a bigger deal than it should be?

We have 9-11 as a reminder, but a for disease that affected 1/4 of THE WORLD'S population why cant "1918" be emdedded in our minds? There should be a poster of that in every darn building with just the simple goal

WASH YOUR HANDS
or your dirty hands will kill millions

"Every person who spits is helping the Kaiser!"

http://evans.amedd.army.mil/PandemicFlu/images/Poster.gif

Others:

http://1918.pandemicflu.gov/pics/cartoons/Cartoon_from_1918.jpg
http://1918.pandemicflu.gov/pics/posters/Careless_Spitting.jpg
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_X_E2NMuAa8k/SFoG9OonKAI/AAAAAAAAAsM/MbgPYM_BRfI/s400/blog+influenza+poster+edit.JPG
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_vgqb9zN9UCs/ScyPB0dQoEI/AAAAAAAAANY/sgeeNxclkwE/s1600/1918.jpg

[coolteeth]

Holy F*** my school just got cancelled. apparently someone had been tested positive for swine flu.

[finalsbound]

Holy F*** my school just got cancelled. apparently someone had been tested positive for swine flu.

which school? and what makes your teeth cool and mine not?

[Miguel]

<object width="425" height="344"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/_TCqk-LEiqw&hl=en&fs=1"></param><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"></param><param name="allowscriptaccess" value="always"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/_TCqk-LEiqw&hl=en&fs=1#t=6m30s" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowscriptaccess="always" allowfullscreen="true" width="425" height="344"></embed></object>

[MadMax]

Holy F*** my school just got cancelled. apparently someone had been tested positive for swine flu.

which school?

for how long is it cancelled?

EDIT:

forget it...i found it....episcopal high school closed through the rest of the week http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/front/6399725.html

[coolteeth]

you found it

[rhino17]

Episcopal in Bellaire has cancelled classes the rest of the week because of the flu.

I wonder who it is, I just graduated from there last year

[rhino17]

you found it
do you know who it is?

andwhat year are you/who are you?

[aghast]

We should all be very afraid of
<strike>SARS
The Bird Flu
Mad Cow Disease
West Nile Virus</strike>
The Swine Flu.

Why aren't you afraid?!?

:rolleyes:
&nbsp;

Per Encarta (http://encarta.msn.com/encyclopedia_761557270_2/Influenza.html#p34),
Major [influenza] pandemics took place in 1729-1730, 1732-1733, 1781-1782, 1830-1831, 1833, and 1889-1890. The last of these, called the Russian flu because it reached Europe from the east, was the first pandemic for which detailed records are available.

In the 20th century, major pandemics occurred in 1918-1919, 1957-1958, and 1968-1969. The 1918-1919 pandemic was the most destructive in recorded history.

Per Wikipedia's numbers:
Russian Flu (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Influenza_A_virus_subtype_H2N2#Russian_flu) (1889–90): <strike>1 million people</strike>
Spanish Flu (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_flu) (1918–20): <strike>20 to 100 million people</strike>
Asian Flu (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Asian_Flu#Asian_flu) (1957–58): <strike>1 to 1.5 million people</strike>
Hong Kong Flu (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hong_Kong_Flu#Hong_Kong_Flu_.281968-1969.29) (1968–69): <strike>0.75 to 1 million people</strike>

No reason for panic, but no reason to dismiss out of hand the potential threat, either. (Unlike the avian flu scare of a few years ago, say, this is already spreading readily person-to-person.) Odds are solid that this will prove far less lethal than the 1918 flu, but this isn't necessarily a "killer bees" type situation.

[Supermac34]

With health situations like these its good to be informed, but you have to seperate the wheat from the chaf in the information.

Many experts have already said they expect this round to die out by mid May, along with most cases of the flu as the season ends. The risk comes next winter, as its been dormant: it all of a sudden springs up in greater numbers in a possibly more virulent and dangerous form.

The good news is, we will most likely have a vaccine by that time to prevent a major threat.

Basically, this flu is cropping up at a good time of the year for the US. Its hard to sustain flus through the summer, and it should die down in a couple weeks, giving the US enough time to formulate a vaccine if needed.

According to Mexican leadership, they have already seen a levelling off of new cases and not a huge ramp up in case numbers. I'm not sure I entirely trust the Mexican government, as it might be due to some of their inaction that this got out so quickly, but if it is actually the case, its good news.

[Severe Rockets Fan]

No reason for panic, but no reason to dismiss out of hand the potential threat, either. (Unlike the avian flu scare of a few years ago, say, this is already spreading readily person-to-person.) Odds are solid that this will prove far less lethal than the 1918 flu, but this isn't necessarily a "killer bees" type situation.

It's pretty comforting to know that the last major flu epidemic was 40 years ago...pretty amazing actually, considering how many other 'we have a potential epidemic on our hands' that have 'threaten' us since then.

Call me crazy, but I like my chances...

[Space Ghost]

It was once said that a black man would be president when pigs flew. Well behold, 100 days into his presidency, swine flew.

[Rocket River]

It was once said that a black man would be president when pigs flew. Well behold, 100 days into his presidency, swine flew.


cute

Rocket River

[Lady_Di]

3 Schools closed here...

http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/health/6399725.html

[Royals Ego]

It was once said that a black man would be president when pigs flew. Well behold, 100 days into his presidency, swine flew.
i lol'd :(

[weslinder]

It was once said that a black man would be president when pigs flew. Well behold, 100 days into his presidency, swine flew.

Good stuff. I laughed.

[justtxyank]

Good stuff. I laughed.

I would have if the joke hadn't already been used on this board with a graphic somewhere else.

[saturated]

3 Schools closed here...

http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/health/6399725.html

My company just cancelled a meeting that we were having at the Toyota Center tomorrow due to the Swine Flu. Did not want to risk a large group of individuals all being in the same place.

It is a little scary how a flu can cause such a difference in the way we live everyday life.

Hopefully they get a grip on it soon and are able to stop the spreading.

[DonkeyMagic]

I would have if the joke hadn't already been used on this board with a graphic somewhere else.


yeah, once a joke is used no one else is allowed to laugh.

[Lady_Di]

My company just cancelled a meeting that we were having at the Toyota Center tomorrow due to the Swine Flu. Did not want to risk a large group of individuals all being in the same place.

It is a little scary how a flu can cause such a difference in the way we live everyday life.

Hopefully they get a grip on it soon and are able to stop the spreading.

Is that kinda overboard? I mean, there's a playoff game tonight...lot of people there. I guess your company is being "safe than sorry".

[stipendlax]

My company just cancelled a meeting that we were having at the Toyota Center tomorrow due to the Swine Flu. Did not want to risk a large group of individuals all being in the same place.

It is a little scary how a flu can cause such a difference in the way we live everyday life.

Hopefully they get a grip on it soon and are able to stop the spreading.

Hmm... I wonder what precautions the TC is going to take for tonight's game.

They should hand out red surgical masks.

[BigBenito]

yeah, once a joke is used no one else is allowed to laugh.
Then how do you explain Dane Cook's career?


;)

[stipendlax]

Then how do you explain Dane Cook's career?


;)

Oh snap! That was good.

+1.

[B-Bob]

Okay, I am not a doctor or a biologist, and I'm honestly confused.

Why is this so much more worrisome than any other flu. Flu has killed thousands in the US this winter. It is very contagious, etc. I think I had a bad one this year and missed a few days of work.

Are they worried that, because of the cases in Mexico, that this will be much more deadly? Or is the worry the fact that it comes from another species, and is therefore much more unpredictable and prone to mutation? None of the WHO or CDC sites even try to explain this.

[DonkeyMagic]

Then how do you explain Dane Cook's career?


;)

because he is original.

signed, carlos mencia

[justtxyank]

because he is original.

signed, carlos mencia

Carlos Mencia looks under his bed for Joe Rogan every night.

[vlaurelio]

They should hand out red surgical masks.

+1 REP PT

[glynch]

My wife works at one of the HISD schools that they have closed. We got the call at 12 midnight not to go to school this morning.. One of the kids went to Mexico to visit her father who was sick from what turned out to be this flu. He died. The kid has the flu and was sent for testing. My wife is assuming this is the kid who got the school shut down.

[Raven Lunatic]

Okay, I am not a doctor or a biologist, and I'm honestly confused.

Why is this so much more worrisome than any other flu. Flu has killed thousands in the US this winter. It is very contagious, etc. I think I had a bad one this year and missed a few days of work.

Are they worried that, because of the cases in Mexico, that this will be much more deadly? Or is the worry the fact that it comes from another species, and is therefore much more unpredictable and prone to mutation? None of the WHO or CDC sites even try to explain this.

I'm fairly certain the concern is that since it comes from another species, no humans have any antibodies built up against this strain of flu, so we are all as vulnerable as we could be to any disease.

[ima_drummer2k]

According to the chronicle, the girl that got it and shut down Episcopal high school actually got it last week and has since totally recovered from it. She recovered from it without even knowing she had it or going to the hospital.

We're all going to die.

[cwebbster]

According to the chronicle, the girl that got it and shut down Episcopal high school actually got it last week and has since totally recovered from it. She recovered from it without even knowing she had it or going to the hospital.

We're all going to die.


Holy Hell.....I swear this is ridiculous.

Did you hear that Obama said that we shouldnt shut down the borders for a while because "once the horse is outta the barn there is no need to close the door" Simply retarded.

[oomp]

Good luck; hope you feel better. If indeed the strains outside of Mexico are weakened, maybe it's better to suffer through the Spring Breaker version of this thing before/if it mutates (back) into stronger stuff. If you start feeling better give us a shout-out; we can meet up for a combined Rockets Game 5 viewing / (Chicken pox-like) weak disease strain communicability party.

Just now feeling better 2 weeks later - still coughing though, not near as bad as early on. I still think I ran into it around the 13th picking my mom up from a Continental flight.

Watch out - I may cough on you next! :D

[Rocketman95]

Holy Hell.....I swear this is ridiculous.

Did you hear that Obama said that we shouldnt shut down the borders for a while because "once the horse is outta the barn there is no need to close the door" Simply retarded.

so, you think we should shut down the borders? i guess i'm not clear what you're calling ridiculous.

[Mr. Clutch]

Are they worried that, because of the cases in Mexico, that this will be much more deadly?

Yes, I think this is it.

[pgabriel]

man, big brother knows now adays, which in this case is good thing.

[made up]this kid went to mexico, stopped at a 7-11 in Corpus on their way back. there were three truckers and two families in the 7-11. The truckers went back to two warehouses. two of the warehouse workers got sick. the families went back to victoria, and one to beaumont. one of the family members in baumont showed signs. The kid went to high school in beaumont, and so forth and so on. geesh[/made up]

[Mr. Clutch]

I'm convinced I got the bird flu a few years ago. My nose was running for 2 weeks straight...

[leroy]

My wife works at one of the HISD schools that they have closed. We got the call at 12 midnight not to go to school this morning.. One of the kids went to Mexico to visit her father who was sick from what turned out to be this flu. He died. The kid has the flu and was sent for testing. My wife is assuming this is the kid who got the school shut down.


Clutch, I think glynch should be quarantined from the board until he is tested.

[Blake]

http://www.latimes.com/features/health/la-sci-swine-reality30-2009apr30,0,3606923.story

[MadMax]

http://www.latimes.com/features/health/la-sci-swine-reality30-2009apr30,0,3606923.story


I think their concern is that we're really past flu season now and this thing is just beginning. They don't know for sure if it will die off during the summer...and are most concerned about what it will do when traditional flu season kicks back in during the fall.

I stayed at a Holiday Inn Express last night.

[cwebbster]

so, you think we should shut down the borders? i guess i'm not clear what you're calling ridiculous.


Not trying to make a political statement or something, but we need to isolate this. If we have to shut the borders down for a week or so, I dont see a problem with it. I am sure I will get flamed for saying that, but COME ON!?

[MadMax]

Not trying to make a political statement or something, but we need to isolate this. If we have to shut the borders down for a week or so, I dont see a problem with it. I am sure I will get flamed for saying that, but COME ON!?

The problem is that it's not just Mexico at this point. It's in Europe...I believe it's in Canada. Are we shutting all borders or just the southern one?

[Fatty FatBastard]

The problem is that it's not just Mexico at this point. It's in Europe...I believe it's in Canada. Are we shutting all borders or just the southern one?

Shut them all down. With e commerce, no one needs to travel internationally for the next week or even month.

[MadMax]

Shut them all down. With e commerce, no one needs to travel internationally for the next week or even month.

you're not alone in saying that. there are quite a few proponents of that, as i understand it.

we keep talking here about overreaction to this thing....but the rest of the world is acting more more swiftly than we are with respect to this...they restricted travel right off the bat.

[cwebbster]

The problem is that it's not just Mexico at this point. It's in Europe...I believe it's in Canada. Are we shutting all borders or just the southern one?


Including Canada......

[Lady_Di]

My fiance just found out that he has to go to Qatar for 6 weeks this Monday...any chance they'll postpone his trip? I don't want him to go. :(

[justtxyank]

you're not alone in saying that. there are quite a few proponents of that, as i understand it.

we keep talking here about overreaction to this thing....but the rest of the world is acting more more swiftly than we are with respect to this...they restricted travel right off the bat.

Yeah, I don't want to be one of the ones who starts pumping up the hysteria about this, but it amuses me that people say the American media loves to overhype this stuff when the rest of the world is taking it more seriously than we are.

[rhester]

Been reading up alot on the problem...

Seems the biggest issue is it spreads person to person by airborne virus or by touch... which means it spreads rapidly and thoroughly...

one common thing is that if you are in a confined space such as a classroom, restaurant, store, office or such and someone who has it sneezes or coughs in the air you are going to get exposed, you may not come down with it but that is what is happening- it is a very small virus that spreads rapidly when airborne... I think that is why the reaction is so strong... one doctor said if you are in an airplane and someone sneezes in the air everyone in the plane will be exposed... same for a classroom.

That is also why closing borders won't help much... it has a 2-4 day period before symptons show and you are contagious upon infection.

That is why hand washing and avoiding crowded areas is being recommended.

Anyways that is what I have read... thankfully the cases so far have not been overly severe here in the US... also the virus is a mutated form of swine flu and there is concern on how serious the respitory effect of the illness will be.

... anyways wash your hands alot and don't get around sick people sneezing and coughing....

Like Biden said, stay off the subway and keep away from the crowds.

I trust this will be contained well here.

[mrdave543]

http://doihaveswineflu.org/

Useful information