Fill me in on the 2009 Astros.

[MisterPink]

I've been out of the Astros loop for a while; I really didn't pay much attention at all last season, but I'm looking to get back into the 2009 squad.

It seems that the general feel is that we may be a decent team, but we're certainly not back at the level where we want to be yet. Is this accurate?

I was also wondering if one of you kind and knowledgeable Astros fans here would clue me in to our new-look lineup, and maybe post some thoughts on how we look at each position based on what you saw last year and what you've seen so far out of Spring Training. Just a quick run-down would be great.

[Malcolm]

check other post for linup ideas a few rumours are going on on team signings actually the team still need pitching.

[Matt Maloney]

"experts" have them penciled in at about 65 wins.

im taking the over.

[Mr. Clutch]

They suck.

[Raven Lunatic]

It's always possible if some of the older player signings have a resurgence and some of our younger players show a jump in development, but barring those things I see the Astros being pretty bad this year. I just don't have any real faith in any of our starters other than Roy Oswalt. Perhaps I'm being overly cynical from the Spring Training record...but I haven't found too much of anything to get excited about so far for 2009.

[marks0223]

They won the first spring training game. :D

Their current spring record is 1-15. :mad:

But there have been 3 ties so that 1-15 record is a little deceiving. ;)

[lalala902102001]

The Astros are stuck in between completely rebuilding and trying to win now...which means that they will suck and they won't be fun to watch.

[bobrek]

The Astros are stuck in between completely rebuilding and trying to win now...which means that they will suck and they won't be fun to watch.

Like last year?

[SWTsig]

think "hindenburg" but in baseball form

[justtxyank]

The Astros are stuck in between completely rebuilding and trying to win now...which means that they will suck and they won't be fun to watch.

I think they will be terrible but should actually be fun to watch. You've got guys on the team who compete hard night in and night out. It's tough to watch when you have a mediocre team where the guys just go through the motions.

[deepellumrocket]

09 Astros = 88 Orioles

:(

[bobrek]

09 Astros = 88 Orioles

:(

So you think the Astros will lose 100+ games?

[Xenon]

I don't think they can be the worst team in baseball history as long as Oswalt stays healthy.

I can see them anywhere from a 90 win team to a 70 win team. Let's go with the middle there and say 80-82.

[deepellumrocket]

So you think the Astros will lose 100+ games?


No, but the current winless streak is reminding me of the Orioles' 21-game skid to start that season.

[Oski2005]

From the Chron today, the worst Spring records and the ensuing season records.


Spring Season Team Yr. record record

Hou. 2009 1-16 .059 TBD

Pitt 1985 6-18 .250 57-104

Chi.C 1984 7-20 .259 93-69

Mon. 1998 8-22 .267 65-97

Det. 1993 8-22 .267 85-77

Det. 1991 8-22 .267 84-78

Atl. 1988 8-21 .276 54-106

S.F. 2008 9-23 .281 72-90

Wash. 2006 9-23 .281 71-91

ChiC 1989 9-23 .281 93-69

Cin. 2002 9-22 .290 78-84

Tor. 1996 9-22 .290 74-88

Fla. 1996 9-22 .290 80-82

T.Bay 2003 8-19 .296 63-99


Only 4 of the 13 teams went on to have a winning record. The odds are that this will be a terrible season.

[MadMax]

http://footer.mlblogs.com/

So that prompted me to check the win-loss records from recent Astros Spring Trainings. Their World Series season in 2005 produced a 13-14 mark during Spring Training. In fact, the only non-losing exhibition season the Astros have had in the last five years occurred in '07, when they were 18-11-1. And, they went on to have their worst season since 2000.

[Oski2005]

http://footer.mlblogs.com/

So that prompted me to check the win-loss records from recent Astros Spring Trainings. Their World Series season in 2005 produced a 13-14 mark during Spring Training. In fact, the only non-losing exhibition season the Astros have had in the last five years occurred in '07, when they were 18-11-1. And, they went on to have their worst season since 2000.

You can't seriously compare 13-14 to 2-16. They are in a historic funk right now.

[MadMax]

You can't seriously compare 13-14 to 2-16. They are in a historic funk right now.

I can do whatever I want :p

[TSchmal]

A quick run-down of the off-season:

Drayton is counting his dollars.

He's forcing Ed Wade to search in the bargain bin for pitchers and reserve infielders. So, we picked up "veterans" (a synonym for "old guys") Mike Hampton and Russ Ortiz for our pitching staff, and an "veterans" Jason Michaels and Aaron Boone for the infield.

We suck in spring training.

As of right now, we are 2-16-3. We have almost no offense to speak of. Kazuo Matsui and Michael Bourn have been abysmal at the leadoff, and we've had to hitting from our catchers to speak of. To add to that, even the veterans are slumping (Berkman, Lee, Tejada).

How are we fixing things?

First, Mike Hampton and Russ Ortiz are having a great spring. They may end up being great bargains and great pick-ups by Ed Wade.

Second, Aaron Boone is having open heart surgery and will be gone the entire season. Chris Johnson, a prospect from Class AAA, has shown some pop in his bat and an ability to hit, so may end up getting the starting job at third with Blum backing him up.

Third, we signed another "veteran" Ivan Rodriguez as a 1-year rental until Castro or Towles come of age (my money is on Castro).

So, how are we looking overall?

My guess? Third in the central behind the Cardinals and Cubs and out of the playoffs. Average, at best.

[juicystream]

I think we could be ok.

The World Champion Phillies rotation featured:

Cole Hamels 3.09ERA
Brett Myers 4.55ERA
Jamie Moyer 3.71ERA
Kyle Kendrick 5.49ERA
Adam Eaton/Joe Blanton 5.80/4.20 ERA

I'd say our rotation is actually fairly comparable to that.

Our offense is probably one player short of theirs. Believe. :cool:

[texanskan]

I think we could be ok.

The World Champion Phillies rotation featured:

Cole Hamels 3.09ERA
Brett Myers 4.55ERA
Jamie Moyer 3.71ERA
Kyle Kendrick 5.49ERA
Adam Eaton/Joe Blanton 5.80/4.20 ERA

I'd say our rotation is actually fairly comparable to that.

Our offense is probably one player short of theirs. Believe. :cool:

We have 3 20 game winners and if we sign Pedro we will have 4 nobody else can say that :D

[MisterPink]

Well, thanks for the responses. At least baseball's got that "anything can happen" feeling. . .and it should still be fun to go to minute maid every now and then.

[texanskan]

Well, thanks for the responses. At least baseball's got that "anything can happen" feeling. . .and it should still be fun to go to minute maid every now and then.

I don't care how bad they are I love to go in April and early May when the roof is open and I always try and go when Roy O pitches

I just hope we are somewhat competitive to bridge the gap between NBA playoffs and NFL

[rocketballin]

Horrible time to get back into the Astros. Aging stars who are in their decline minus maybe Lance. One good pitcher. Worst Farm system in baseball. 0 top prospects. Your savior is Hunter Pence. Every free agent signing is a stretch. Check back in 5 years.

[rocketghost]

Horrible time to get back into the Astros. Aging stars who are in their decline minus maybe Lance. One good pitcher. Worst Farm system in baseball. 0 top prospects. Your savior is Hunter Pence. Every free agent signing is a stretch. Check back in 5 years.

Quite the pessimist aren't you? We only finished a few games out of the wild card last year and that was after hurricane ike and bud selig conspired to move a supposed home game to milwaukee to get no hit by Zambrano in front of 20k cubs fans. This effectively killed their playoff hopes after being on fire thru August into September.

I'm not saying they're going to be great, but if some of Roy's awesomeness can rub off on Hampton/Ortiz like it appears to have on Moehler, we could have a good team.

[TMAC_ATTACK]

The astros started off the preason playing terrible, but lately have gotten hot and I think if we get one more decent starting pitcher we have a chance to contend with the mets for the wild card.

[Angle02]

I thought Spring Training was more about seeing who is going to make the team. Not putting the best players out and try to win every ST game. I wouldn't start worrying until the 2nd half of the season.

[thegary]

i'd say we have a punch-drunk chance to suck in the first half of the year and then turn it on and fall short at the end.

[MadMax]

How the hell did everyone forget they won 86 games last season?

I know, I know...Blaise Pascal said they only should have won 76.

[Hammer755]

How the hell did everyone forget they won 86 games last season?

I know, I know...Blaise Pascal said they only should have won 76.

The Astros finished 11/16 in runs scored last year and 9/16 in runs allowed last season. Yes, they won 86 games last year, but regardless of how you feel about Pythag records, the likelihood of them doing it again with largely the same team is pretty small.

I have a hard time seeing the offense improving any this year - the catching is better (obviously), and Pence will probably be better, but those gains will likely be offset by Blum at third, and Lee regressing from a career year. For the pitching to improve, you are counting on Russ Ortiz & Mike Hampton - good luck with that.

[MadMax]

The Astros finished 11/16 in runs scored last year and 9/16 in runs allowed last season. Yes, they won 86 games last year, but regardless of how you feel about Pythag records, the likelihood of them doing it again with largely the same team is pretty small.

I have a hard time seeing the offense improving any this year - the catching is better (obviously), and Pence will probably be better, but those gains will likely be offset by Blum at third, and Lee regressing from a career year. For the pitching to improve, you are counting on Russ Ortiz & Mike Hampton - good luck with that.

all that is dandy.

we're talking about a team that is virtually the same team from last year. and we're laughing that they're suggesting they might win 4 more games.

[bobrek]

I have a hard time seeing the offense improving any this year - the catching is better (obviously), and Pence will probably be better, but those gains will likely be offset by Blum at third, and Lee regressing from a career year. For the pitching to improve, you are counting on Russ Ortiz & Mike Hampton - good luck with that.

The Astros were 57-59 the day Lee got hurt and was out for the year. They went 29-16 the rest of the way.

[TSchmal]

... and Lee regressing from a career year.
What makes you think Carlos will regress? He's been Mr. Consistency ever since he got here.

[right1]

those gains will likely be offset by Blum at third, and Lee regressing from a career year.


Carlos Lee has been one of The most consistent players in MLB for quite some time now. No career year there. Very similar to what you can expect from him and why he was a huge signing for the 'Stros. Also, a reason why they have a potent offensive line-up, won 86 games last year and might win 90 games this year. Have to admit, a little concerned about the starting rotation, but I think a couple of those guys will surprise + Roy & a pretty good yr. from Wandy. We'll see. I like Hawkins and Valverde in the pen. Pen looks pretty strong. I say they have a fighting shot to win 90 or 91 like Lance and Coop say. I'll be there on opening day. I hope Roy O. gets the nod. Actually, Wandy always pitches lights out when I'm there.

[Ric]

Carlos Lee has been one of The most consistent players in MLB for quite some time now. No career year there.
technically, it was career year-ish. his career ops+ is 116; last year, he posted a 144. the 4 years prior, he posted a 126, 126, 109, 127.

he did miss 45+ games, so it may have been moved closer to his mean by year's end... but, it was certainly his best year ever. and for it to happen at 32... we'd be silly to expect a repeat.

BUT he should still be very productive - he's a very good hitter.

[msn]

We only finished a few games out of the wild card last year and that was after hurricane ike and bud selig conspired to move a supposed home game to milwaukee to get no hit by Zambrano in front of 20k cubs fans. This effectively killed their playoff hopes...
One nit, picked.

It was going, like, oh-for-June that "effectively killed [their] playoff hopes."

Carry on. :cool:

[right1]

it was certainly his best year ever. and for it to happen at 32... we'd be silly to expect a repeat.


2006 624 AB .300 AVG. 37 HR 102 RUNS 116 RBI
2007 627 AB .303 AVG. 32 HR 93 RUNS 119 RBI
2008 436 AB .314 AVG. 28 HR 61 RUNS 100 RBI
2004 591 AB .305 AVG. 31 HR 103 RUNS 99 RBI

Hmm. :confused: I'd take the '07 numbers if it were up to me. Repeat.

[redgoose]

Surprising thread as i always get blasted for stating the obvious the Astros won't come close to winning the division or even the wild card. I feel bad for Oswalt and Berkman wasting their prime here. We have a nice offense now that our catcher isn't an automatic out like the pitcher, plus Pudge will have a chip on his shoulder and 15-20 homeruns, .275 avg, would be a vast improvement in that spot we haven't had in a long time.

However we knew we needed starting pitching and did nothing to acquire it. Has Drayton not figured out the only reasons we've ever made it to the 2nd round and World Series was because of a great pitching staff. Our only hope is Wandy blossoms into a stud and Backe stays healthy while pitching good.

However, either rebuild or go for it all. I could see Oswalt in a Red Sox uniform, Berkman for a team like the Dodgers who need another bat for Manny. Anyone would take Pence, but getting rid of Lee's salary would be the hardest. Force a team to take him with Roy or Berkman in a trade.

Te only thing i fear about rebuilding is our horrible scouting. It took 10 years to bring up a bat like Pence since Berkman, never a good catcher panned out, and i don't see anyone close to Roy or any pitcher in the minors coming up as a starter this season. :( I think Drayton just want to keep the seats filled and fears it won't happen if he blows everything up.

We can be a little over .500 by beating up on bad pitching, but i don't see us better than the Cubs or Cardinals in our division.

[Mailman]

Surprising thread as i always get blasted for stating the obvious the Astros won't come close to winning the division or even the wild card. I feel bad for Oswalt and Berkman wasting their prime here. We have a nice offense now that our catcher isn't an automatic out like the pitcher, plus Pudge will have a chip on his shoulder and 15-20 homeruns, .275 avg, would be a vast improvement in that spot we haven't had in a long time.

However we knew we needed starting pitching and did nothing to acquire it. Has Drayton not figured out the only reasons we've ever made it to the 2nd round and World Series was because of a great pitching staff. Our only hope is Wandy blossoms into a stud and Backe stays healthy while pitching good.

However, either rebuild or go for it all. I could see Oswalt in a Red Sox uniform, Berkman for a team like the Dodgers who need another bat for Manny. Anyone would take Pence, but getting rid of Lee's salary would be the hardest. Force a team to take him with Roy or Berkman in a trade.

Te only thing i fear about rebuilding is our horrible scouting. It took 10 years to bring up a bat like Pence since Berkman, never a good catcher panned out, and i don't see anyone close to Roy or any pitcher in the minors coming up as a starter this season. :( I think Drayton just want to keep the seats filled and fears it won't happen if he blows everything up.

We can be a little over .500 by beating up on bad pitching, but i don't see us better than the Cubs or Cardinals in our division.

I am an Astros diehard. Please shut up with this "fan" bull****. You have no business speaking for any Astros fans. You are without a clue about baseball and the Houston Astros.

[msn]

There is nothing wrong with redgoose's post. I've seen him be overly negative at times, but that doesn't mean he's not a "fan". He cares enough to be here and be talking about it, doesn't he?

Nothing like a little "fan piety".

At any rate, I'm hoping our scouting is on its way back up. They made a couple hires last year that look pretty good on paper. Here's hoping.

[BrooksBall]

2006 624 AB .300 AVG. 37 HR 102 RUNS 116 RBI
2007 627 AB .303 AVG. 32 HR 93 RUNS 119 RBI
2008 436 AB .314 AVG. 28 HR 61 RUNS 100 RBI
2004 591 AB .305 AVG. 31 HR 103 RUNS 99 RBI

Hmm. :confused: I'd take the '07 numbers if it were up to me. Repeat.

He missed 47 possible games in 2008. That's about 30% of the season!

Despite having far fewer AB and GP, he had comparable HR and RBI numbers in 2008 to seasons where he didn't miss games or only missed a few games.

He may not have broken his HR record but I wouldn't rule it out. He almost certainly would have broken his RBI record.

His SLG, OBP and AVG were all at career high levels when he went down. His SLG and AVG were well ahead of his previous highs.

I think it's fair to say 2008 would have been far and away a career year for Lee if he didn't get injured.

[Major]

2007 627 AB .303 AVG. 32 HR 93 RUNS 119 RBI
2008 436 AB .314 AVG. 28 HR 61 RUNS 100 RBI

Hmm. :confused: I'd take the '07 numbers if it were up to me. Repeat.

Really? You'd rather have him hitting a HR every 19.6 at-bats instead of every 15.5? You'd rather have him getting an RBI every 5.3 at-bats instead of every 4.3? You'd rather him have a lower average, lower OBP, and lower OPS? :confused:

He was scoring runs at a higher pace as a result of having a better bit middle of the offense around him in 2007, though.

[redgoose]

I am an Astros diehard. Please shut up with this "fan" bull****. You have no business speaking for any Astros fans. You are without a clue about baseball and the Houston Astros.

I said the exact same things last year and what happened? Plus it was a year with no major injuries for us, unlike a couple teams that still finished better than us in our division. Remind me how far the same team we have now plan getting into the playoffs?

Can you honestly tell me we're put together better than the Cubs or a healthy Cardinals team this year?

Of course, i only played the game through HS and watched countless games on TV and in person. Therefore i know nothing about the sport that is so complicated. Since i'm stating the facts about their pitching. How come none of your so called "experts" from ESPN and SI aren't predicting anything from us either? I say "your" experts since i am not one.

Try and find one non biased Astros article saying we're playoff bound. Or check out their Vegas odds for winning it all.

I have no problem with your optimism of a new year, but don't insult my intelligence. I thought this was a board to express thoughts and opinions, not to dictate people who believe other than you. I believe there's a word for that.

[BrooksBall]

I said the exact same things last year and what happened? Plus it was a year with no major injuries for us, unlike a couple teams that still finished better than us in our division.

Disagree.

Lee, Oswalt, Matsui, Wandy, Wigginton...


I thought this was a board to express thoughts and opinions, not to dictate people who believe other than you.

Agree.

[MadMax]

Can you honestly tell me we're put together better than a healthy Cardinals team this year?



yes, i can. i believe the astros will finish ahead of the cardinals this season.

as much as it pains me to say it, the cubs are the best team in the division and SHOULD win it. but this is baseball..anything can happen.

[msn]

yes, i can. i believe the astros will finish ahead of the cardinals this season.
Can you indulge a lazy Internet BBSer who doesn't want to take the time to read up on the current state of the Cardinals with some details? I know they're not what they were, but honestly I can't even tell you who's in the rotation. They've got like Pujols and... ?

[Major]

Disagree.

Lee, Oswalt, Matsui, Wandy, Wigginton...


Lee and Wigginton, certainly. Oswalt made 33 starts last year and pitched over 200 innings. Matsui and Wandy are injured every year - neither of those was unusual and should be expected annually.

The Cardinals didn't have any major injuries that I know of either - except missing Carpenter for the entire season. It remains to be seen how well he'll bounce back this year, though he's looked good in the spring. Ankiel's injury was probably the equivalent of Wiggington.

Both teams are pretty similar to what they were last year, but the Cards scored 70 more runs than us and gave up 20 fewer runs than us last year.

[right1]

He missed 47 possible games in 2008. That's about 30% of the season!

I think it's fair to say 2008 would have been far and away a career year for Lee if he didn't get injured.

IF, IF, IF. You can say that all day. He WAS injured and it WASN'T a career year. Besides, his numbers have always been very comparable. Sure, he was on pace to hit a few more home runs and have a few more RBI, I'll give you that. But, looking at the numbers, you know what you can expect from Carlos Lee and his 436 AB's last year were not a fluke, nor was it a career year.

[MadMax]

Can you indulge a lazy Internet BBSer who doesn't want to take the time to read up on the current state of the Cardinals with some details? I know they're not what they were, but honestly I can't even tell you who's in the rotation. They've got like Pujols and... ?

I know they have a lot of bullpen questions...including closer, where they're starting a rookie. See below for a couple of different looks at it.

http://cardsdiaspora.com/2009/02/2009-projected-starting-line-up-v-10.html

C: Yadier Molina

1st: Albert Pujols

2nd: Joe Thurston

3rd: David Freese

SS: Kahlil Green

RF: Ryan Ludwick

CF: Rick Ankiel

LF: Chris Duncan

SP: Adam Wainwright

SP: Todd Wellemeyer

SP: Joel Pinero

SP: Chris Carpenter

SP: Kyle Lohse

Closer: Chris Perez

Looking at this for the very first time this spring, it's a bit galling to see how much of this line-up is still not very stable. In fact, the rotation seems to be fairly well set while all three OF positions and 2B/3B are still big, big questions. Plus we don't have a closer. How much will this change in the next 6 weeks? Much. How would you set it up? Who would you move?

http://www.mlbdepthcharts.com/2009/03/cardinals-lineup-remains-biggest.html

If there is one team that I do not feel very comfortable projecting at this time, it's the St. Louis Cardinals. While the pitching staff appears to be falling into place, the lineup remains full of question marks.

I've had Colby Rasmus ticketed for AAA all along and I've stuck with the Skip Schumaker projection at 2B, but the recent demotion of projected backup outfielder Brian Barton has thrown me for a loop. With only Rasmus and 24 year-old Jonathan Jay in camp and outfielder Joe Mather projected to start the season at 3B, it probably means that one of three things are likely to happen with this current roster.

Option #1. Rasmus starts the season in AAA and the rookie Jay serves as the 4th outfielder. WHY NOT? While Jay is having a productive camp (12-for-32), he has just 58 career AB's at the AAA level.

Option #2. Rasmus opens the season in the Cardinal outfield with Schumaker at 2B and Chris Duncan on the bench. WHY NOT? If LaRussa feels the kid is ready, there is no reason not to break camp with him in the lineup.

Option #3. Schumaker moves back to the OF, Duncan moves to the bench, Rasmus and Jay start in AAA, and one of the backup IF candidates could start at 2B WHY NOT? Taking Duncan out of the lineup in favor of Joe Thurston or Brendan Ryan would result in a less explosive offense.

[right1]

Really? You'd rather have him hitting a HR every 19.6 at-bats instead of every 15.5? You'd rather have him getting an RBI every 5.3 at-bats instead of every 4.3? You'd rather him have a lower average, lower OBP, and lower OPS? :confused:

Of course not. But, I'd rather him have 627 AB as opposed to being hurt and having only 436 AB. I would take his '06 and '07 over his '08.

This year if he hits .309 85 runs 35 HR 125 RBI, would it be a career year?

It would be a career best in RBI by 6, but overall pretty comparable to '06 and '07.

[Major]

Of course not. But, I'd rather him have 627 AB as opposed to being hurt and having only 436 AB. I would take his '06 and '07 over his '08.


Certainly - but I think people were saying that he was having a career year *when he got hurt*.

This year if he hits .309 85 runs 35 HR 125 RBI, would it be a career year?

It would be a career best in RBI by 6, but overall pretty comparable to '06 and '07.

It would depend. RBIs and R's aren't really useful in terms of measuring career years since they are dependent on the offense around him. More useful would be if he posted career highs in HRs, AVG, OBP, SLG, and/or OPS - he was on pace for career bests in all of those last year, which is why many people think of it as him being on pace for a career year.

[right1]

Certainly - but I think people were saying that he was having a career year *when he got hurt*.

He was on his way to having a monster RBI season that's for sure. There is really no argument here. Carlos has proven to be one of the most consistent and best hitters in baseball for the past few years and I would expect him to hit b/t .300-.310 with 32-37 HR.

Now, if he hits .315 with 45 jacks and 135 RBI, it would obviously be the best year of his career.

[Pete Chilcutt]

yes, i can. i believe the astros will finish ahead of the cardinals this season.

as much as it pains me to say it, the cubs are the best team in the division and SHOULD win it. but this is baseball..anything can happen.


Also it is the Cubs, so you never know what kind of bad luck they may experience through the course of the season.. :p

I do believe Astros can finish second in the division and challenge the Mets, Phillies, or even Braves for that Wild card spot.

Chilcutt

[TheBigAristotle]

We will win the World Series.

[SamCassell]

Both teams are pretty similar to what they were last year, but the Cards scored 70 more runs than us and gave up 20 fewer runs than us last year.
I think Ludwick had a career year and is going to come back to earth. Troy Glaus is a big question mark for the season, and he hit 27 HR last year. The offense just won't be as good as it was last year, outside of Pujols and maybe Ankiel. They have 3 pretty good starting pitchers, but I wouldn't call Wainwright an ace, and the pen is very suspect (though no more than last year, I guess). The Cards don't scare me.

[Ric]

Now, if he hits .315 with 45 jacks and 135 RBI, it would obviously be the best year of his career.
and that was almost his exact projected #s last year had he stayed healthy (.314/39/140)

but you're getting stuck on mostly counting stats (which, obviously, are going to be impacted by his missing out on nearly 200 ABs last year). and i think you're also maybe taking "career year" as a knock, which it certainly was not. he has been very, very good - if not borderline great, certainly from the plate - since coming here.

and i suspect he'll post his usual 125-130-ish OPS+ this year (which is very good). but last year was far and away the best year of his career by any non-counting measure. to expect a repeat, when he's 32 and not in appreciably good shape, is asking a lot. he's certainly capable of proving me wrong, though...

[kaleidosky]

I think Ludwick had a career year and is going to come back to earth. Troy Glaus is a big question mark for the season, and he hit 27 HR last year. The offense just won't be as good as it was last year, outside of Pujols and maybe Ankiel. They have 3 pretty good starting pitchers, but I wouldn't call Wainwright an ace, and the pen is very suspect (though no more than last year, I guess). The Cards don't scare me.

I think Schumaker will repeat last year and be good at the top of that order. (Whether or not he can learn 2B remains to be seen...preseason was not a great showing) I expect Wainwright to improve (or at least be good consistently this year). I think the Cards can do some damage and should be in the same range as the Astros..

[Major]

I think Ludwick had a career year and is going to come back to earth. Troy Glaus is a big question mark for the season, and he hit 27 HR last year. The offense just won't be as good as it was last year, outside of Pujols and maybe Ankiel. They have 3 pretty good starting pitchers, but I wouldn't call Wainwright an ace, and the pen is very suspect (though no more than last year, I guess). The Cards don't scare me.

Ludwick is the big question mark. He was absurdly good and come out of nowhere, so history suggests he should regress. On the flipside, he was once a top prospect (a 2nd round pick) and he was ridiculously consistent last year. He had one bad month (June) and otherwise was above 0.950 OPS every other month. That's not what you normally see with those one-year wonder types. So who knows what happens with him.

I think that gets balanced out by Carpenter's return. The rookie closer that MadMax mentioned is a questionmark, but Isringhausen was horrible last year (ERA over 5, lots of blown saves), so Motte probably is still an improvement. I did forget about Glaus being out - that certainly hurts their offense.

[right1]

and that was almost his exact projected #s last year had he stayed healthy (.314/39/140)

but you're getting stuck on mostly counting stats (which, obviously, are going to be impacted by his missing out on nearly 200 ABs last year). but last year was far and away the best year of his career by any non-counting measure. to expect a repeat, when he's 32 and not in appreciably good shape, is asking a lot. he's certainly capable of proving me wrong, though...

I'm not getting stuck on anything. "If, would have been, could have been or projected to be before he got hurt," are not the same as actually accomplishing it. By any non-counting measure :confused:. You said it would be SILLY to expect a repeat from Carlos Lee of his 2008 season. Personally, I expect more than 115 games played, more than 28 HR, more than 60 R and more than 100 RBI. I don't care if he was "projected to" or "on his way" to having a better year last year or not. He didn't.

Ken Griffey, Jr. would be "on his way" to being the All-Time Home Run King if he wasn't "impacted" by his "missing out" on nearly 200 games in his career.

Call me silly if you want.

[Ric]

Personally, I expect more than 115 games played, more than 28 HR, more than 60 R and more than 100 RBI. I don't care if he was "projected to" or "on his way" to having a better year last year or not. He didn't.
i, uh.... huh....

his injury doesn't invalidate the season he had; it just impacts stats that are dependent upon staying healthy and playing everyday. i recognize there's a component of guessing when it comes to what ifs and projections - but there was nothing about the way he was playing to suggest he wouldn't have set career highs in HRs and/or RsBI had he been in the line-up every day. (hell, as is - he was just 9 off his HR pace and 19 off his RsBI pace - and that was with him missing nearly 200 ABs - nearly a third of a normal season for him. give him... half the ABs he missed and he likely would have made a run at both marks; he certainly would have bested them had he played 160+ games as he's done every year since 2005.)

additionally, when you look at non-counting stats, he set career highs in BA (.314), OB% (.368), SLG% (.569), OPS (.937), OPS (144+) - he had his best year as a hitter - injury or not. and it's not really close or up for much debate. i recognize staying healthy is part of the package... but you can't use it to negate his accomplishments. i mean, bagwell tied or bested his HR and RBI numbers from his MVP season in five other seasons - but no one would argue they were better years than his 1994 campaign, where he (would have) missed the final 50 games.

if lee returns to his normal level of production, he'll still be a very, very good hitter; but not as good as he was last year.

[Joe Joe]

i, uh.... huh....

his injury doesn't invalidate the season he had; it just impacts stats that are dependent upon staying healthy and playing everyday.

While I'm very big in efficiency stats, playing everyday is a huge stat for baseball when you are talking about good players that are hard to replace. Baseball is a marathon. His injury does not diminish what he did on the field, but his time off the field definitely diminishes the quality of his season as he can't easily be replaced.

Efficiency stats are a good measurement of what a guy could do if he played more. However, he didn't play more and no matter how you slice it, his improved efficiency can't match the sheer production he had when he had nearly 200 more at bats.

[redgoose]

I'm no Cardinals fan but some people are just plain overlooking them. My friend who lived there keeps me updated on them very well. We virtually tied with the Cards last year and they were missing their Cy Young pitcher, Pujols played all year with a bad elbow and Wainright was injured as well. A healthy Wainright is a better pitcher than anyone we have other than Roy, even Kyle Losche is as well. Possibly the best 1-2-3 in the division. They actually have guys to bring up from the farm also to pitch in the bullpen this year. :cool:

If Oswalt only started 3 games last year and or Lance played hurt, they would easily be our scape goat. Seems to me like the Cardinals had alot more excuses for not winning more than we did.

You can squeeze Pujols between Ludwick and Ankiel and have a very nice batting trio that won't even need to score as many runs as last year.

I just don't understand how we'll finish ahead of either the Cubs or Cardinals, and then the Mets or the defending champion Phillies for the Wild Card. :(

I'll still always root for the Astros, but just because people here don't know anyone on St.Louis other than Pujols doesn't make them a bad team. They can probably only name Roy and Lance for us. :confused:

I'm just frustrated we didn't at least get one good starter in the off season. I thought we would try and get Sheets. There are alot of veteran starters like Pedro, Sheets, Mulder, Hernandez, etc that would surely fill out our rotation. Alot of injury probables? Yes, but most are getting desperate and would take a one year deal by now. But at least try and get a couple and we could win the Wild Card if they produce. Unless you really think Wandy is a legit #2 starter and everyone else is a .500 pitcher. :eek:

[msn]

I wish they had more starters too, but decrying the lack of pursuing Sheets and Mulder and Pedro is funny given that they *did* sign two formerly-good old guys with recent injury problems. And, Sheets was already slated to miss over half the season as soon as he hit the market!

It's rebuilding time, even though they're afraid to use the word. They're not spending a ton on FA, they have nothing to trade, and they're drafting well. To me, that spells r-e-b-u-i-l-d. And, I'm not so displeased about it: the last major rebuild that started back in '91 produced quite a nice little run once it matured.

[No Worries]

Ithey're drafting well.
Too soon to tell if last year's draftees will be impact players. The Astros do get credit for actually signing their top draftees last year, which they did not do the prior year.

[redgoose]

I wish they had more starters too, but decrying the lack of pursuing Sheets and Mulder and Pedro is funny given that they *did* sign two formerly-good old guys with recent injury problems. And, Sheets was already slated to miss over half the season as soon as he hit the market!

It's rebuilding time, even though they're afraid to use the word. They're not spending a ton on FA, they have nothing to trade, and they're drafting well. To me, that spells r-e-b-u-i-l-d. And, I'm not so displeased about it: the last major rebuild that started back in '91 produced quite a nice little run once it matured.

I agree because we're at the point where we could go all out by getting some pitching, or rebuild by trading away most of our talent. But there's no point of being stuck in the middle for years just so Lance and Roy can retire in an Astros uniform. Since we're not looking for pitching, are we aiming for the NL Central bronze medal?

My only fear about rebuilding is that our scouts have proven to be as great as the ones who work for Pittsburgh. Then we'll be awful for decades instead of just mediocre.

[msn]

Too soon to tell if last year's draftees will be impact players. The Astros do get credit for actually signing their top draftees last year, which they did not do the prior year.
Ha! True, I was indeed comparing last year's draft to a very, very low bar!!

My only fear about rebuilding is that our scouts have proven to be as great as the ones who work for Pittsburgh. Then we'll be awful for decades instead of just mediocre.
They haven't proven anything with the Astros, as the Astros just overhauled their scouting department before last season. The hirings look pretty good on paper. Perhaps better days are ahead.

[redgoose]

They haven't proven anything with the Astros, as the Astros just overhauled their scouting department before last season. The hirings look pretty good on paper. Perhaps better days are ahead.


I know you you follow baseball strongly MSN. I got blasted and flamed on this thread basically saying talent wins us games. I'm curious what will win us many more games, rather than the manager. I know your an avid Astros fan, what's your opinion? How many extra games do you think the perfect manager would win us? :confused: