McCain Up By 1 in Latest Zogby Poll

[Old Man Rock]

Saturday UPDATE: Obama Losing On Latest Zogby (http://www.drudgereport.com/)

ZOGBY SATURDAY: McCain outpolled Obama 48% to 47% in Friday, one day, polling. He is beginning to cut into Obama's lead among independents, is now leading among blue collar voters, has strengthened his lead among investors and among men, and is walloping Obama among NASCAR voters. Joe the Plumber may get his license after all.

[BetterThanEver]

It says saturday, but it's Friday across all time zones. Shrug.

[insane man]

even so. show me the path to victory. what states will mccain win that snatches this from obama?

[The Cat]

THIS ISN'T A POLL.

First of all, it's one poll out of like 15 out there. Secondly, you do realize that this isn't the poll result that will be released tomorrow, correct? It's one day. Outliers happen all the time. Obama has had individual tracking days where he's been up 20 percent. That's why national polls use results from three to four days to tabulate their results -- to balance out the statistical noise and randomness that happens if you use only one day and a limited amount of respondents.

So, the thread title is completely false, because there's no such thing as a "daily" Zogby poll. The Zogby poll is a composite of 3-4 days, much like any other reputable poll. However, Drudge has a lot of foaming mad, far-right lunatics as his primary audience, so he spins it into something it's not to get hits. Pretty simple.

[Oski2005]

Zogby website seems to be down.

[durvasa]

THIS ISN'T A POLL.

First of all, it's one poll out of like 15 out there. Secondly, you do realize that this isn't the poll result that will be released tomorrow, correct? It's one day. Outliers happen all the time. Obama has had individual tracking days where he's been up 20 percent. That's why national polls use results from three to four days to tabulate their results -- to balance out the statistical noise and randomness that happens if you use only one day and a limited amount of respondents.

So, the thread title is completely false, because there's no such thing as a "daily" Zogby poll. The Zogby poll is a composite of 3-4 days, much like any other reputable poll. However, Drudge has a lot of foaming mad, far-right lunatics as his primary audience, so he spins it into something it's not to get hits. Pretty simple.

Thanks for clarifying that.

[BetterThanEver]

I check out the latest zogby poll and it is indeed a 3 day poll.

http://www.reuters.com/article/politicsNews/idUSTRE49J0LF20081031

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Democrat Barack Obama's lead over Republican rival John McCain held steady at seven points as the race for the White House entered its final four days, according to a Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby poll released on Friday.

[The Cat]

I check out the latest zogby poll and it is indeed a 3 day poll.

http://www.reuters.com/article/politicsNews/idUSTRE49J0LF20081031

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Democrat Barack Obama's lead over Republican rival John McCain held steady at seven points as the race for the White House entered its final four days, according to a Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby poll released on Friday.

Absolutely. All the major tracking polls are at least three days, and some four, depending on how many interviews they complete per day. This isn't anything out of the ordinary. In the past month, there have been numerous individual days with Obama up 15-20, while there have been some individual days with McCain tied or even slightly in front. The key is, with a reasonable sample, they average each other out. This isn't a reasonable sample... but conservatives are grasping at straws, and Drudge is willing to take advantage.

[pirc1]

The poll was hacked by Rebublican supporters lol.

[The Cat]

For additional perspective, Zogby was rated the worst pollster in 2004, predicting a Kerry EV majority on the day of the election. They claimed to have made improvements to their model, but it hasn't seemed that way thus far. On Super Tuesday, Zogby had Obama winning by 6 in California. He lost by 10.

It's one day -- not even a real poll -- by one poll out of dozens, conducted by the worst polling company known to man. I'll take the other 99.99999 percent of polls out there.

[BetterThanEver]

The Cat now you made Old Man Rock feel bad with your reasoning. I don't see him refuting your logic. LOL.

[Cannonball]

For additional perspective, Zogby was rated the worst pollster in 2004, predicting a Kerry EV majority on the day of the election. They claimed to have made improvements to their model, but it hasn't seemed that way thus far. On Super Tuesday, Zogby had Obama winning by 6 in California. He lost by 10.

It's one day -- not even a real poll -- by one poll out of dozens, conducted by the worst polling company known to man. I'll take the other 99.99999 percent of polls out there.

The main criticism I've heard of the Zogby poll is that it's model is based on the assumption that voter turnout will be exactly as it was in 2004.

[basso]

i completely agree that one shouldn't take this to the bank (assuming you favor mccain), and that the result may be an outlier (and zogby, in general,is not to be trusted). and in any case, i don't trust any polls at this point.

trends, however, are interesting, and this is yet another indicator that the race is tightin' up.

and, since the only poll that matters is that on 11/4, i'm curious about the strenuous efforts to discredit this one day result...

but then one reads this (http://bbs.clutchfans.net/showpost.php?p=3983661&postcount=1) and it all makes sense...what's the spiff on discrediting that blog?

[The Cat]

i completely agree that one shouldn't take this to the bank (assuming you favor mccain), and that the result may be an outlier (and zogby, in general,is not to be trusted). and in any case, i don't trust any polls at this point.

trends, however, are interesting, and this is yet another indicator that the race is tightin' up.

and, since the only poll that matters is that on 11/4, i'm curious about the strenuous efforts to discredit this one day result...

but then one reads this (http://bbs.clutchfans.net/showpost.php?p=3983661&postcount=1) and it all makes sense...what's the spiff on discrediting that blog?

Yeah, trends are interesting. Here's a look at the trends over the past couple of days, and the indicators are anything but tightening.

http://bbs.clutchfans.net/showpost.php?p=3985601&postcount=489

What's the spiff on that? I think it goes without saying that one random unidentified, unsourced poster on a random message board isn't particularly credible. Hell, Republicans seem to have decided that entire polling organizations, among the most respected in the world, are all "in the tank" and untrustworthy. If dozens of professional polling organizations aren't to be trusted, why in the world would you trust a random blog post by an anonymous person you've never heard of? I could sign up for one of those forums and write a dissertation of how I'm an "insider" with insider polls showing McCain or Obama up 30, and the reaction would be every bit the same.

[Major]

trends, however, are interesting, and this is yet another indicator that the race is tightin' up.

and, since the only poll that matters is that on 11/4, i'm curious about the strenuous efforts to discredit this one day result...


The effort to discredit the poll is based on people valuing facts and good science. Accuracy and actual sound analysis may not be important to you, but is important to many of us who like to deal in reality. Why you would think people actually providing accurate information is a bad thing is beyond me. And no, the race does NOT appear to be tightening up. This is the aggregate of all the tracking polls:

http://www.talkingpointsmemo.com/images/2008-10-31-composite.jpg

Does that look like tightening to you?

[Old Man Rock]

The main criticism I've heard of the Zogby poll is that it's model is based on the assumption that voter turnout will be exactly as it was in 2004.

Yes it is true Zogby basis their polls on 2004 but their is evidence that they should and I'll tell you why.

First if you understand a little of the science behind polling then you’ll get a better understanding why all the polls might be wrong. The Democrats' according to Obama and pollsters have a growing advantage in party identification. Meaning more blacks and youth and women are registering. Plus Obama has promised a get out to vote ground game like never seen before.

Well pollsters have bought into Obama’s rhetoric and adjusted their polls accordingly. Pollsters have adjusted their equation of how they calculate who they poll based on registered voters and the likelihood they will vote. The problem with this is this year more than ever it is a guess there has never been a massive registration of new voters especially of voters who have a tendency not o vote and their has never been a ground game Obama’s. But the adjustment is all over the board. For example Pew Research Poll has their Party ID skewe 15 points in favor of Dems. That means when they poll 400 registered republicans they have to pol 550 dems before the calculate their results.

Pew is the worst CBS is right behind them but Rasmussen and Gallup are at 8 points. The party ID has never been at 8 points the highest in recent history was about 4 and in 2000 it was 1 point. Now because Accorn has registered so many new voters and Obama say he will get them to vote. So every poll buys into that and now we have these polls skewed left and Mccain is getting killed. Gallup is even so unsure of their traditional Likely to vote poll that they have thrown out another poll along side it based on what the person being polled say they are going to do. That is just ridiculous. What ever little science there was with Gallup is thrown out the window with that poll.

In Addition pollsters are saying it is more difficult to get people to respond to polls than ever. 80% of all people refuse to respond! Why is that? I think it is because Democrats who won’t vote for Obama are embarrassed to admit it and republicans are more private in general but also don’t want you to think they are racist. But the Obama supporters are happy to speak. So that makes the results inaccurate but what really throws all of this off skewed polling out the window is that so far all of the states that have early voting are a lot of Democratic PUMA (Party Unity My Ass) in support of McCain and the youth which was supposed to be big for Obama is coming in at 50 50. So I think you will see a very fast tightening of the polls as the pollsters realize their party Identification is way off skew and they reset it to the 3-5% that the early voting is indicating.

My second theory is not scientific at all but it is based on 2 people I know who are running for office. And what I got out of it is the dem said Obama has been running events in her district every week and everyone loves him. It’s like the guy on the corner who’s buying beer for everyone and they love him but once the beer runs out they’re gone. That’s what is happening with Obama he is throwing parties and feeding them everything they want to hear but now they are starting to see he is running out of beer and they are gone. As for the Repub it’s just this gut feeling that the guy they have isn’t the partying buddy but if something happens to you and you need help he’ll be there. No science here and of course it is just an opinion but that’s what I got. And I would be very surprised if this race isn’t very close both electorally and the popular vote.

[basso]

The effort to discredit the poll is based on people valuing facts and good science. Accuracy and actual sound analysis may not be important to you, but is important to many of us who like to deal in reality. Why you would think people actually providing accurate information is a bad thing is beyond me. And no, the race does NOT appear to be tightening up. This is the aggregate of all the tracking polls:

http://www.talkingpointsmemo.com/images/2008-10-31-composite.jpg

Does that look like tightening to you?

this looks like tightening to me

http://static.flickr.com/70/181461300_924e242a8d.jpg

but you may not be old enough to understand that election night is gonna be a rollercoaster...

[Rocketman95]

Jesus dude, I know you're losing it, but that pic could get people in trouble at work.

[aghast]

???????????????

[Major]

Well pollsters have bought into Obama’s rhetoric and adjusted their polls accordingly.

Umm, the party ID shift began several years ago before Obama started running. The pollsters adjusted their party ID weight based on:

1. Results from 2006 which showed a shift in party ID.
2. Actual voter registrations over the last few years that showed a shift in party ID.
3. Actually polling of people asking them their party affiliation, which showed a shift in party ID.

It has nothing to do with "Obama's rhetoric". The fact that you think it does should create massive warning bells in people's head when reading your posts about how polling works.

[Major]

but you may not be old enough to understand that election night is gonna be a rollercoaster...

Keep on believing that... Of the following:

VA NC GA IN MO CO NV NM MT ND AZ FL OH PA

I expect Obama will win at least half of these, if not more. I'd rank them in the following order:

PA
NM
VA
CO
NC
NV
FL
GA
IN
MT
MO
ND
AZ

But if it makes you feel better, I believe you'll get excited around 4 or 5pm on Tuesday when exit polls are released showing McCain closer than expected due to the fact that early voters aren't accounted for in exit polls.

[Old Man Rock]

Umm, the party ID shift began several years ago before Obama started running. The pollsters adjusted their party ID weight based on:

1. Results from 2006 which showed a shift in party ID.
2. Actual voter registrations over the last few years that showed a shift in party ID.
3. Actually polling of people asking them their party affiliation, which showed a shift in party ID.

It has nothing to do with "Obama's rhetoric". The fact that you think it does should create massive warning bells in people's head when reading your posts about how polling works.

There is much more going into the science of polling than I can claim to know. But these pollsters want to be right and they absolutely do take into consideration the likelihood someone will vote. But the 1.3 million new voters that ACORN registered. Ad the countless others that have registered are all thought to be strongly in favor of Barack and more likely to vote then ever and Obama's pledge (rhetoric if you will) to have a get out to vote drive like never before is part of their equation. And early voting so far indicates no difference than 2004.

[SamFisher]

The effort to discredit the poll is based on people valuing facts and good science.

well the dude basso is a true believer in one Ms. Sarah Palin, who thinks Jesus rode around on Dinosaurs and that Drosophila Melanogaster is something that elitists dreamed up to make REAL americans from REAL 43% of the country feel stupid.

but you may not be old enough to understand that election night is gonna be a rollercoaster...

He's right about that. Unfortunately for McCain, it will be exactly like the Texas Sky Screamer at Astroworld.

http://i33.tinypic.com/x428sn.jpg

[mc mark]

I loved that ride

[Faos]

Shouldn't you guys be planning your victory parties? Why are you even here?

[DaDakota]

Shouldn't you guys be planning your victory parties? Why are you even here?


We are planning our online victory parties silly !

DD

[Cannonball]

Shouldn't you guys be planning your victory parties? Why are you even here?

I'm waiting for the party planner to call me back. Apparently they're having trouble locating an ice sculptor who's capable of chiseling a life sized statue of Obama.

[B-Bob]

???????????????

I could not have put it better. basso, in brief, WTF?

[Cannonball]

I think it's an anomaly and don't really care. But for those interested, here are 538.com's comments.

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/10/trick-or-treat.html

Trick or Treat

Do you spook easily?

Judging by the response in my inbox, some of you do.

Matt Drudge is touting the results of a one-day sample in a Zogby poll, which apparently showed John McCain ahead by 1 point.

There are a couple of significant problems with this.

Firstly, there is a reason that pollsters include multiple days of interviewing in their tracking polls; a one-day sample is extremely volatile, and have very high margins for error.

Secondly, the Zogby polls have been particularly volatile, because he uses nonsensical party ID weightings, which mean that his weighting process involves making numbers doing naughty things that they usually don't like to do.

Thirdly, Zogby polls are generally a lagging rather than a leading indicator. This is because he splits his interviewing period over two days; most of the interviews that were conducted in this sample took place on Thursday night, with a few this afternoon. The reason this is significant is because lots of other pollsters were in the field on Thursday night, and most of them evidently showed good numbers for Obama, as he improved his standing in 6 of the 7 non-Zogby trackers.

Finally, there was no favorable news for McCain to drive these numbers. Polls don't move without a reason (or at least they don't move much).

So go out to your Halloween parties and enjoy yourself, and we'll be back to covering the polls for you tomorrow.

[rimrocker]

Poor Repubs... they have to pretend it's close to keep their base engaged so they don't get wiped out down ballot, but every time they claim it's close, it just inspires wary, twice-bitten Dems to work harder.

They can't win.

[aghast]

this looks like tightening to me

[image deleted]

but you may not be old enough to understand that election night is gonna be a rollercoaster...

Somewhere there's a vintage '70s blaxploitation porno BBS with a detailed analysis of likely versus registered voter trends, the unreliability of youth voters, and the self-suppression of voter turnout among first-time voters when media reports predict a sure thing.

Or, yeah,
...WTF?

[Dubious]

The new Rovians have to spin it close to support all their local races. If the base gives up on McCain and stays home, they lose Judges, State Reps and Congressmen.

The Dems will spin it as a landslide for the same reason.

I feel pretty good about the lead but, I was shocked when Clinton beat Bush 41 (he won a war) and I was shocked when Bush 43 beat Gore ( he was an obvious sockpuppet) .... Bush/Kerry not so much. So I won't take victory for granted ever again.

[basso]

Jesus dude, I know you're losing it, but that pic could get people in trouble at work.

it was in every record store when i was a kid.

[DonnyMost]

it was in every record store when i was a kid.

good point...


if you work at a record store

[mc mark]

Zogby Poll Showing McCain Lead Interviews Fewer Democrats Than All Other Surveys (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/11/01/zogby-poll-showing-mccain_n_139968.html)

[Kim]

I'm an independent who is proudly voting for neither of these guys. I dislike good liars and bad liars.

Anyhow, I think Old Man Rock is making some legitimate points. Whether he is right or wrong should be discussed on its merits, not whether or not you like his politics.

Everybody is spinning on both sides and Polls are not a pure science. The margin of error is correct 95% of the time in polls. So if it's 55 to 45 with a margin of error of 5, it could still end up 70 to 30 and not violate how polls are set up.

And yes, to be clear, the latest up by 1 by McCain is not an official Zogby Poll...I haven't looked it up, but I was listening to Zogby in my car this morning live on NPR. From his mouth he said that it is just 1 day and it could be: an anomaly, a start of a trend, or something else I forgot. He was saying the 3 day stuff that some of y'all have already written here.

Now as to the competing philosophies: whether the Republicans are right or wrong is yet to be seen, but they're going to war with the following philosophy and they believe it's their path to victory:

The Republicans believe that the polls are reflecting massive bias towards the Democrats because the Obama campaign is registering people like crazy and the polls are surveying mostly Dems. The Republicans also believe that the new registrants won't vote like crazy, at least not reflective of their record registion. Lastly, they believe that for every action by an active new Democratic vote creates an equal reaction by getting a rural Republican who otherwise wouldn't vote to vote.

Democrats believe that if all the people who they've registered and all the people who have showed support vote at a high rate, then they've won it.

It's part art and part science, and I barely understand any of it. But it should be debatable without the poor attitudes. I've very excited to find out what will happen.

[Old Man Rock]

Zogby Poll Showing McCain Lead Interviews Fewer Democrats Than All Other Surveys (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/11/01/zogby-poll-showing-mccain_n_139968.html)

All that article shows is that you can't trust Gallup. They have a 11 point Party ID in favor of Dems. Pew is at 15 and CBS/NYT is somewhere in between. There has never been more than a 4 point Party ID 1 way or the other in recent History. Last election it was 4 and in 2000 it was 1.

Zogby says he adjusts his party id skew if he sees a reason to. Well folks early voting all over the country is showing Obama is getting only 75% of the Dem vote at best. The PUMA's are leaving in droves. Where as the Reps or uniting. Zogby's poll may be slightly under skewed for the Dems but those Polsters with 8 point and higher party ID skews in favor of the Dems are a joke. The reality is there has never been an election like this before and it has never been harder to get people to respond to polls. Republicans are hanging up and Democrats for McCain are refusing to answer.

No one is answering the polls which makes them all crap but AP/ got smart and found a way to indirectly get a response.

In an AP/Yahoo (http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2121688/posts) report they asked... "Would you prefer that the next president be politically conservative, liberal, or moderate?

Conservative 32 Liberal 18 Moderate 48

Then they asked "How liberal, moderate, or conservative do you think Barack Obama is?" ANswer: Extremely conservative 3 Moderately conservative 3 Slightly conservative 3 Moderate 17 Slightly liberal 16 Moderately liberal 26 Extremely liberal 29 Refused / Not Answered 3

80% of America want a Moderate-Conservative President and only 26% of the people polled think Obama fits that bill. Where as for McCain 85% thought he was the right choice. Wow that right there should show that these polls are mis-skewed badly.

If that AP report is correct this could be a landslide and in fact there are reports that the GOP internal polls show New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Michigan and even California are in play and suggest exactly that a landslide for McCain.

GOP Intenal polls (http://patriotroom.com/?p=3672)

That might all be hype but with more Terror ties and stories about Obama's Aunt being here illegally and Obama says he didn't know. One has to ask how is it that Barack Obama was not aware his Aunt was here illegally for more than 4 years, but his campaign in 1 week was able to illegally dig up dirt on Joe The Plumber in a few days. No One knows who Obama is that is why there ia an AP report that says 15% of the electorate is still undecided. Many believe the Undecides will strongly vote for McCain.

I am obviously not predicting a landslide but I do think this is much closer than any poll is reporting. And if your poll is just asking who are you going to vote for than you will be hard pressed to get a true poll.

[SamFisher]

I'm an independent who is proudly voting for neither of these guys. I dislike good liars and bad liars.

Anyhow, I think Old Man Rock is making some legitimate points. Whether he is right or wrong should be discussed on its merits, not whether or not you like his politics.

Everybody is spinning on both sides and Polls are not a pure science. The margin of error is correct 95% of the time in polls. So if it's 55 to 45 with a margin of error of 5, it could still end up 70 to 30 and not violate how polls are set up.

And yes, to be clear, the latest up by 1 by McCain is not an official Zogby Poll...I haven't looked it up, but I was listening to Zogby in my car this morning live on NPR. From his mouth he said that it is just 1 day and it could be: an anomaly, a start of a trend, or something else I forgot. He was saying the 3 day stuff that some of y'all have already written here.

Now as to the competing philosophies: whether the Republicans are right or wrong is yet to be seen, but they're going to war with the following philosophy and they believe it's their path to victory:

The Republicans believe that the polls are reflecting massive bias towards the Democrats because the Obama campaign is registering people like crazy and the polls are surveying mostly Dems. The Republicans also believe that the new registrants won't vote like crazy, at least not reflective of their record registion. Lastly, they believe that for every action by an active new Democratic vote creates an equal reaction by getting a rural Republican who otherwise wouldn't vote to vote.

Democrats believe that if all the people who they've registered and all the people who have showed support vote at a high rate, then they've won it.

It's part art and part science, and I barely understand any of it. But it should be debatable without the poor attitudes. I've very excited to find out what will happen.
Ahh, a refreshing self-righteous breath of "I'm an independent and better than all this" - we don't get enough of that here.

The Republicans can believe whatever they want, the fact of the matter is that they're going to get blown out of the water on Tuesday, that's simply the most rational outcome due to all available evidence and has ZERO to do with partisan spin.

[Trader_Jorge]

There is no doubt that McCain is a great closer. This poll supports that.

[Kim]

Ahh, a refreshing self-righteous breath of "I'm an independent and better than all this" - we don't get enough of that here.

The Republicans can believe whatever they want, the fact of the matter is that they're going to get blown out of the water on Tuesday, that's simply the most rational outcome due to all available evidence and has ZERO to do with partisan spin.

There are two separate things here. I'm an idiot who is far from the most knowledgeable and can humbly change my opinion and give people credit when they are good. I like certain things about both candidates...but it is very fair to say that both live in the world of half-truths. It is the nature of the game. I'm not condemning either and I strongly believe that either would be better than Bush, but I just don't like the ugly game that is full of lies. That doesn't make me self-righteous...I don't think. I'm not hating the players as much as hating the game, and you have to be a liar to be in this game and I don't like that. I don't think participating as a voter is wrong...I just won't do it. I apologize if that comes out as self-righteousness.

The second issue is the spin thing. I am more inclined to believe in the Democratic scenario because I'm seeing the enthusiasm on tv and the reading about the ground campaign stuff. Obama's campaign is very impressive in its outreach and the evidence is showing that.

There's is still evidence on the Republican side though. They're not just making up lies when they say the difference in Democrat and Republican turnout is normally at 5% max. While early voting is showing Democrats representing big time, absentee voting is coming mostly from Republicans.

That's why I call it spin. The evidence is not 100% proof, and there is evidence here to support how either side believes it's going to play out. Again, I personally think the evidence is heavier on the Dem side, but it's not a sure thing, and to call it a sure thing landslide is spin imo.

[rocket3forlife2]

Gallup Daily: Obama 52%, McCain 42% Among Likely Voters



PRINCETON, NJ -- Barack Obama leads John McCain in Gallup Poll Daily tracking interviewing conducted Wednesday through Friday by an identical 52% to 42% margin among both traditional likely voters and expanded likely voters. Obama leads by a similar 52% to 41% margin among all registered voters.



http://www.gallup.com/poll/111661/Gallup-Daily-Obama-52-McCain-42-Among-Likely-Voters.aspx

[rocket3forlife2]

Obama has 5-point lead over McCain Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby poll


Sat Nov 1, 2008 11:49am EDT



WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Democrat Barack Obama's lead over Republican rival John McCain dipped slightly to 5 points with three days left in the race for the White House, according to a Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby poll released on Saturday.

Obama leads McCain by 49 percent to 44 percent among likely voters in the three-day national tracking poll, down from a 7-point advantage on Friday. The telephone poll has a margin of error of 2.9 percentage points.

McCain, who made solid gains in Friday's single day of polling, sliced Obama's lead among independents from 15 points to 6 points and among women from 9 points to 4 points.

"There is no doubt that McCain made some gains," said pollster John Zogby. "It is enough to raise the question, is McCain making a move?"

Obama's support dropped below the 50 percent mark after two consecutive days at that level. McCain's support has never moved above the 45 percent mark in the more than three weeks the tracking poll has been taken.

Obama has led McCain in every national opinion poll since late September, and McCain also trails in many of the key battleground states including Ohio, Florida and Pennsylvania.

But McCain and his campaign aides say he is clawing back, and McCain enlisted the help of California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger in the battleground state of Ohio on Friday.

"I know a winning campaign when I see one," McCain said. "We're a couple of points back. Arnold said it best. The Mac is back."

The tracking poll showed Obama still holds an 8-point edge among Catholics and a 6-point lead among men. The Illinois senator led among all age groups except those voters between the ages of 30 and 49.

McCain, a former Navy fighter pilot and Vietnam prisoner of war, trails by 5 points among voters with a member of the military in their family.

The Arizona senator was also winning over only 26 percent of Hispanics, a fast-growing group that gave President George W. Bush more than 40 percent of their vote in 2004.

Obama also does a better job of bridging the ideological divide. He is attracting 19 percent of self-described conservatives, the poll found, while McCain gains only 6 percent of liberals.

Independent Ralph Nader received 2 percent in the national survey, and Libertarian Bob Barr was at 1 percent. About 2 percent of voters remain undecided.

The rolling tracking poll, taken Wednesday through Friday, surveyed 1,201 likely voters in the presidential election. In a tracking poll, the most recent day's results are added, while the oldest day's results are dropped to monitor changing momentum.

The U.S. presidency is determined by which candidate wins the Electoral College, which has 538 members apportioned by population in each state and the District of Columbia. Electoral votes are allotted on a winner-take-all basis in all but two states, which divide them by congressional district.





http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSN3134134020081101

[A_3PO]

Saturday UPDATE: Obama Losing On Latest Zogby (http://www.drudgereport.com/)

ZOGBY SATURDAY: McCain outpolled Obama 48% to 47% in Friday, one day, polling. He is beginning to cut into Obama's lead among independents, is now leading among blue collar voters, has strengthened his lead among investors and among men, and is walloping Obama among NASCAR voters. Joe the Plumber may get his license after all.

ZOGBY SUNDAY UPDATE:

Zogby is going to hurt himself trying to dance around and individually explain his huge one day poll variances. You can close the book on McCain's one-day, one-point lead on Friday's polling. It was a complete fluke. Saturday's numbers have Obama by 10, 52/42. I don't know who is more responsible for the blather: Drudge for splashing it in bold on his website or Zogby for his chatter blatter on his daily results. Someone should tell him that since he says one day doesn't make a trend, why talk about each day's numbers. Just comment on the trend. I get the impression he likes being part of the news.

McCain is buried.

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1627

Pollster John Zogby: "Obama has consolidated his lead over McCain. His single day lead today was back to 52%-42%. He leads by 10 among independents and has solidified his base. He leads among Hispanics by38 points, African Americans by 88, 18-24 year olds by 36, 18-29 year olds by 25, 25-34 year olds by 16, women by 8, and men by 3. He has a 17 point lead among those who have already voted, 22 by those who have registered to vote in the past 6 months, Moderates by 34, Catholics by 10. He even receives 21% support among Conservatives.

"So what happened to give McCain a one-point lead in the one-day polling on Friday? It was a day of consolidation for him, too. He had been losing support among key groups and began to regain some of his own base. He now leads by 21 points among NASCAR fans, 9 among investors, 6 among voters in armed forces households, and 2 among voters over 65 years old.

"Remember, as I said yesterday, one day does not make a trend. This is a three-day rolling average and no changes have been tectonic. A special note to blogger friends: calm it down. Lay off the cable television noise and look at your baseball cards in your spare time. It is better for your (and everyone else's) health."

[Rashmon]

Saturday UPDATE: Obama Losing On Latest Zogby (http://www.drudgereport.com/)

ZOGBY SATURDAY: McCain outpolled Obama 48% to 47% in Friday, one day, polling. He is beginning to cut into Obama's lead among independents, is now leading among blue collar voters, has strengthened his lead among investors and among men, and is walloping Obama among NASCAR voters. Joe the Plumber may get his license after all.

Though nothing will
Drive them away
We can beat them
Just for one day
We can be Heroes
Just for one day

[Severe Rockets Fan]

I know very little about polling, but I can't figure out how the numbers are so volatile. You can't honestly tell me that there are millions of folks out there that haven't made up there minds in the last few days of the election. I always scratch my head when I see...

Democrat Barack Obama's lead over Republican rival John McCain dipped slightly to 5 points with three days left in the race for the White House


Gotta love this one though...
He now leads by 21 points among NASCAR fans

[Major]

I know very little about polling, but I can't figure out how the numbers are so volatile. You can't honestly tell me that there are millions of folks out there that haven't made up there minds in the last few days of the election. I always scratch my head when I see...


These are tracking polls - they interview about 1200 people over 3 days (400 per day). The individual 400 people days are very volatile because the sample is so small - they are something like +/- 5%. So if shows McCain at 49%, it really means he is anywhere between 44-54%. This is the reason the pollsters don't release one-day samples (except Zogby, who's an idiot who likes to get himself in the news, as someone else earlier mentioned). And it's also the reason people don't give massive amounts of commentary with each poll (unlike Zogby, who thinks 1 pt moves are clear evidence of a shift in the electorate).

[Kim]

"The margin of error" in itself is not absolute according to polling theory. That is supposed to be correct 95% of the time. So a +/- of 5% margin of error could mean that the final results could be +/- of 30% and that's okay. Polling is never a certainty.

[B-Bob]

"The margin of error" in itself is not absolute according to polling theory. That is supposed to be correct 95% of the time. So a +/- of 5% margin of error could mean that the final results could be +/- of 30% and that's okay. Polling is never a certainty.

I'm glad you are reiterating this. It's all about the sigmas, ain't it?

I really, really don't trust the polls now. I think in 2008, versus say 1992, people are increasingly likely to lie, hide their true intentions, or simply not answer the land line.

[gifford1967]

As I remember it the average of the polls in 2004 was pretty accurate. They showed a very close race leaning slightly to Kerry. It turned out to be a very close race leaning slightly to Bush.

Am I remembering that wrong?

[Major]

As I remember it the average of the polls in 2004 was pretty accurate. They showed a very close race leaning slightly to Kerry. It turned out to be a very close race leaning slightly to Bush.

Am I remembering that wrong?

The polls have always been pretty accurate. There are exceptions, but most of the polling problems in 2000 and 2004 were the exit polls, not the regular daily polls. Here's how the polls showed the 2004 race:

<img src=http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Pres/ec_graph-2004-all.png</img>

Here's the 2008 races:

<img src=http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Pres/ec_graph-2008-all.png</img>

(that assumes you assign every state to a candidate even if they are up 1%. here's a link for if you only assign states outside of the margin of error:

http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Pres/ec_graph-2008.html
)

[Major]

Let's try that again...

The polls have always been pretty accurate. There are exceptions, but most of the polling problems in 2000 and 2004 were the exit polls, not the regular daily polls. Here's how the polls showed the 2004 race:

<img src=http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Pres/ec_graph-2004-all.png>

Here's the 2008 races:

<img src=http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Pres/ec_graph-2008-all.png>

(that assumes you assign every state to a candidate even if they are up 1%. here's a link for if you only assign states outside of the margin of error:

http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Pres/ec_graph-2008.html

[B-Bob]

thanks, major. I'll admit my anxiety about the polls is non-scientific, to put it mildly. Those graphs are very interesting. They speak of a successful campaign strategy.