ClutchFans - Jason Castro named top prospect...

BrooksBall

06-08-2009, 03:27 AM

Castro has been promoted to Corpus. He started off the season a little slow but has picked it up over the last month or so, walking more and driving in more runs:

Castro finished the night 2-2 with a pair of walks. After the game, it was announced that his perfect evening at the plate would be his last in Lancaster. The star catcher was promoted to AA Corpus Christi immediately following the ballgame. The star prospect in the Houston system had been incredibly hot for the past two weeks, raising his average above .300 and driving in runs in 12 of his last 15 games.

http://www.jethawks.com/news/press-releases/view/?id=914

Considering how he started the season, his numbers look solid: http://www.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?n=Jason%20Castro&pos=&sid=milb&t=p_pbp&pid=488771

56 G
207 AB
.309 AVG
.399 OBP
.517 SLG
.916 OPS
7 HR
20 2B
44 RBI
30 BB
41 SO

arif1127

06-08-2009, 03:31 AM

sigh.

I wish he was ready to come up now. as much as I like Q, he's another offensive dud at the catchers spot. it's not like we could hide him in our average offensive lineup.

just once, it would be nice to have a catcher bat...oh .260 10 HR, 55-60 rbi.

Have you seen what Q is doing at the plate these days?

arif1127

06-08-2009, 03:32 AM

And of course, just like Jason Lane, and every other big fancy prospect, he'll be rushed through our farm system in about 7 years.

This is a different regime, they are moving kids up the ladder significantly faster. He'll be in Houston for a cup of coffee most likely by the end of next year.

BrooksBall

06-08-2009, 03:38 AM

Have you seen what Q is doing at the plate these days?

I even jokingly gave Q a nick after this last series, but the dude is a low average, non-walking, low power, minor league caliber catcher. His numbers will likely adjust quickly to his norm, even in limited ABs. He is great behind the plate though and therefore, an acceptable option in his backup role. Part of me still thinks Towles should get another shot at some point this season.

arif1127

06-08-2009, 07:05 AM

I even jokingly gave Q a nick after this last series, but the dude is a low average, non-walking, low power, minor league caliber catcher. His numbers will likely adjust quickly to his norm, even in limited ABs. He is great behind the plate though and therefore, an acceptable option in his backup role. Part of me still thinks Towles should get another shot at some point this season.

I agree with that(not the Towles part) but right now is not the time to be calling Q out on his hitting, wait till he regresses to his mean then call him an offensive dud, not when he is hitting out of his mind.

Hammer755

06-08-2009, 07:21 AM

I agree with that(not the Towles part) but right now is not the time to be calling Q out on his hitting, wait till he regresses to his mean then call him an offensive dud, not when he is hitting out of his mind.

He had one good game, which I don't think qualifies a person to be 'hitting out of his mind'. Before last night's game, Quintero had a sub-.300 OBP and sub-.400 SLG.

Hammer755

06-08-2009, 07:24 AM

I guess I should say he's had 2 good games in a row. But you have to judge him on the 425 AB that say he's Ausmusesque rather than the 5 that say he's a decent hitter.

leroy420

06-08-2009, 08:31 AM

I even jokingly gave Q a nick after this last series, but the dude is a low average, non-walking, low power, minor league caliber catcher. His numbers will likely adjust quickly to his norm, even in limited ABs. He is great behind the plate though and therefore, an acceptable option in his backup role. Part of me still thinks Towles should get another shot at some point this season.

I'm with you on Towles. I think he should be given another shot. I like the idea of having that bat off the bench. If they're going to hold on to Jason Michaels, I think you have to have at least one more potential offensive threat.

I do wonder, however, what the plan is should Castro continue to progress. What do you do with Towles and Castro?

kaleidosky

06-08-2009, 08:45 AM

This is a different regime, they are moving kids up the ladder significantly faster. He'll be in Houston for a cup of coffee most likely by the end of next year.

end? I've heard multiple times (though I don't have sources--I thought they were quotes out of the Chronicle, but I could be wrong) that he would be in competition for the starting job next spring..and considering the alternatives, he has a good shot.

arif1127

06-08-2009, 08:47 AM

I guess I should say he's had 2 good games in a row. But you have to judge him on the 425 AB that say he's Ausmusesque rather than the 5 that say he's a decent hitter.

I'm not saying he is a good hitter, but you can't dog him on his hitting when in his last 9 games played he has 13 hits in 31 at bats(for a .419 avg).

but a backup catcher is there for his defense, not his offense, and Q is playing solid D and calling good games, that's his job. any offense he provides is just icing on the cake.

arif1127

06-08-2009, 09:02 AM

end? I've heard multiple times (though I don't have sources--I thought they were quotes out of the Chronicle, but I could be wrong) that he would be in competition for the starting job next spring..and considering the alternatives, he has a good shot.

You are correct, "Castro likely will begin the season at high Class A Lancaster of the California Leaguebut could wind up at Class AA Corpus Christi by season's end. The Astros envision him taking over the starting job in 2010 and staying there for a long time."

http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/sports/bb/6299504.html

The Cat

06-08-2009, 09:10 AM

I even jokingly gave Q a nick after this last series, but the dude is a low average, non-walking, low power, minor league caliber catcher. His numbers will likely adjust quickly to his norm, even in limited ABs. He is great behind the plate though and therefore, an acceptable option in his backup role. Part of me still thinks Towles should get another shot at some point this season.

Absolutely. I find the low opinion of Towles bizarre, honestly. The Astros clearly fast-tracked him far before he was ready, he had a poor half-season, and now it's as if he's a non-prospect and his strong AAA performance doesn't matter. I don't see any reason to believe Castro is a clearly superior prospect to Towles.

juicystream

06-08-2009, 10:05 AM

Absolutely. I find the low opinion of Towles bizarre, honestly. The Astros clearly fast-tracked him far before he was ready, he had a poor half-season, and now it's as if he's a non-prospect and his strong AAA performance doesn't matter. I don't see any reason to believe Castro is a clearly superior prospect to Towles.

One of them will have to be traded or change positions. Not to mention that Pudge is here for now. Castro's value is higher on the market, but I think management sees him as the future, not Towles.

RocketFan007

06-08-2009, 06:50 PM

Absolutely. I find the low opinion of Towles bizarre, honestly. The Astros clearly fast-tracked him far before he was ready, he had a poor half-season, and now it's as if he's a non-prospect and his strong AAA performance doesn't matter. I don't see any reason to believe Castro is a clearly superior prospect to Towles.

From everything I've read, Castro is by FAR a better defensive catcher than Towles, he was throwing out 59% of SB attempts at Lancaster.

Kerfeld

06-09-2009, 12:46 PM

And of course, just like Jason Lane, and every other big fancy prospect, he'll be rushed through our farm system in about 7 years.

If Albert Pujols was an Astro, he would be in double A.

Nick

06-09-2009, 01:22 PM

And of course, just like Jason Lane, and every other big fancy prospect, he'll be rushed through our farm system in about 7 years.

I don't understand this statement. Its not like Jason Lane came up here and had an amazing career (that was shortened because of the delay in promoting him)... and I've yet to hear of a player who DIDN'T reach greatness because he wasn't promoted fast enough (on the contrary, there have been several players who ended up fizzling out, or getting injured, due to being promoted too fast).

Name one prospect who the Astros truly "stifled the progress of" by keeping them in the minors longer than they should have? Hunter Pence may be the only possibility, but he had a few players ahead of him in the OF that prevented his rapid rise (and he still ended up in the majors within 3 years of being drafted).

Oswalt was fast-tracked, Berkman was fast-tracked, Carlos Hernandez was ultra fast-tracked so was Redding. Lidge needed to overcome injuries before being promoted, while Wagner was fast-tracked.

If you have minor league talent, those players get promoted faster. If they aren't getting promoted, its probably because they possess some negatives that prevent them from doing so (the preverbial AAAA player).

Lane (while he was the best prospect the Astros had back then), obviously didn't end up being a future HOFer or even an all-star... so why should he have been promoted faster?

msn

06-09-2009, 01:26 PM

How long were Ward and Abreu in the system? How about Zobrist?

Not combative questions, mind you. Just names off the top of my head, and I genuinely don't remember (and don't feel like googling it).

Nick

06-09-2009, 01:34 PM

How long were Ward and Abreu in the system? How about Zobrist?

Not combative questions, mind you. Just names off the top of my head, and I genuinely don't remember (and don't feel like googling it).

Ward was drafted in 1994 (by the Tigers, out of HS), and made his MLB debut with the Astros in 1998 at 23 years old. In his situation, there happens to be the fact that a ceratain HOF first baseman was in his way. Inevitably, Ward turned out to be nothing more than a glorified left-handed pinch-hitter anyways (still have painful visions of him chasing fly balls as an OF in 2002).

Abreu was signed (not drafted) as a 16 year old player in 1990. Made his debut in 1996 (at age 22). Similiar career path as Hidalgo. Astros ended up choosing the wrong guy, as Abreu started to reach his potential at age 24.

Zobrist was drafted in 2004 (like Pence) and made his debut in 2007 (like Pence). He has been very good thus far... but looking at his numbers the previous two years, this improvment is pretty drastic. He's either going to regress, or the Astros truly made a mistake by trading him... even though i'm sure nobody here would venture to predict he'd be putting up these sorts of numbers.

BrooksBall

06-09-2009, 02:09 PM

Does anybody think it's worth creating a separate thread to discuss the draft?

Ric

06-09-2009, 02:26 PM

Abreu was signed (not drafted) as a 16 year old player in 1990. Made his debut in 1996 (at age 22). Similiar career path as Hidalgo. Astros ended up choosing the wrong guy, as Abreu started to reach his potential at age 24.
but the wrong guy wasn't hidalgo - it was derek bell. they should have kept the two youngsters and let bell and his contract (not to mention his average #s) go. i never understood their infatuation with derek bell.

He's either going to regress, or the Astros truly made a mistake by trading him... even though i'm sure nobody here would venture to predict he'd be putting up these sorts of numbers.
i don't know... career minor league average of .318 with an OPS of .888 and an OB% of .429. the slugging is certainly a surprise (no idea what kind of advantage tropicana might be providing, if any), and i have no idea what his glove is like, but why he wasn't more highly thought of and/or fast-tracked remains a mystery to me.

studogg

06-09-2009, 02:30 PM

Does anybody think it's worth creating a separate thread to discuss the draft?

As long as there are some draftniks that can provide insight into the selections, I think it is a good idea.

leroy420

06-09-2009, 03:04 PM

but the wrong guy wasn't hidalgo - it was derek bell. they should have kept the two youngsters and let bell and his contract (not to mention his average #s) go. i never understood their infatuation with derek bell.

i don't know... career minor league average of .318 with an OPS of .888 and an OB% of .429. the slugging is certainly a surprise (no idea what kind of advantage tropicana might be providing, if any), and i have no idea what his glove is like, but why he wasn't more highly thought of and/or fast-tracked remains a mystery to me.

IIRC, the reason was that the Astros didn't believe he would be a major league shortstop. They though he had a chance at 2nd, where we had Biggio and his heir apparent, Chris Burke. They were apparently wrong.

BrooksBall

06-09-2009, 03:25 PM

As long as there are some draftniks that can provide insight into the selections, I think it is a good idea.

That would be my hope if we started such a thread.

juicystream

06-09-2009, 03:35 PM

That would be my hope if we started such a thread.

I say you start it considering its your idea. With the draft being telivised now, there will be a lot more info out on the players. People could post articles. Either that or wait until our pick when you know there will be a thread, but that doesn't allow for speculation.

I went ahead and created one because I have some things I want to post in there.

The Cat

06-09-2009, 03:41 PM

I don't understand this statement. Its not like Jason Lane came up here and had an amazing career (that was shortened because of the delay in promoting him)... and I've yet to hear of a player who DIDN'T reach greatness because he wasn't promoted fast enough (on the contrary, there have been several players who ended up fizzling out, or getting injured, due to being promoted too fast).

Name one prospect who the Astros truly "stifled the progress of" by keeping them in the minors longer than they should have? Hunter Pence may be the only possibility, but he had a few players ahead of him in the OF that prevented his rapid rise (and he still ended up in the majors within 3 years of being drafted).

Oswalt was fast-tracked, Berkman was fast-tracked, Carlos Hernandez was ultra fast-tracked so was Redding. Lidge needed to overcome injuries before being promoted, while Wagner was fast-tracked.

If you have minor league talent, those players get promoted faster. If they aren't getting promoted, its probably because they possess some negatives that prevent them from doing so (the preverbial AAAA player).

Lane (while he was the best prospect the Astros had back then), obviously didn't end up being a future HOFer or even an all-star... so why should he have been promoted faster?

Towles was fast tracked beyond belief, and now that's deluded Astros fans into thinking he's worthless, when in reality he's a prospect on the same level as Castro. I know public perception is far from the be all, end all, but that's one reason why you don't rush someone to the majors.

wallyj12

06-09-2009, 03:47 PM

I say you start it considering its your idea. With the draft being telivised now, there will be a lot more info out on the players. People could post articles. Either that or wait until our pick when you know there will be a thread, but that doesn't allow for speculation.

I hope too a thread gets started, I hate how the MLB draft gets such minimal coverage aside from Strasburg hoopla. Its hard to find good sites to get info, Baseball America and the majority of articles on ESPN are subscription only, and MLB.com's has only pretty decent coverage (Their Astros draft preview barely talked about this year's draft, just how we sucked it up the last couple of years).

Sidenote: I thought the draft was only going to be televised on MLB network?

juicystream

06-09-2009, 04:00 PM

I hope too a thread gets started, I hate how the MLB draft gets such minimal coverage aside from Strasburg hoopla. Its hard to find good sites to get info, Baseball America and the majority of articles on ESPN are subscription only, and MLB.com's has only pretty decent coverage (Their Astros draft preview barely talked about this year's draft, just how we sucked it up the last couple of years).

Sidenote: I thought the draft was only going to be televised on MLB network?

Looks like it. You can watch on MLB.com if you don't have the MLB network.

Naija Texan

06-09-2009, 06:50 PM

I'm with you on Towles. I think he should be given another shot. I like the idea of having that bat off the bench. If they're going to hold on to Jason Michaels, I think you have to have at least one more potential offensive threat.

I do wonder, however, what the plan is should Castro continue to progress. What do you do with Towles and Castro?

If Towles and Castro are about even if Castro is better, trade one of them for more prospects or something.

Cannonball

06-09-2009, 06:53 PM

If Towles and Castro are about even if Castro is better, trade one of them for more prospects or something.

Or convert one to another position.

kaleidosky

06-09-2009, 07:17 PM

Or convert one to another position.

my assumption is that neither will be hitting well enough to justify playing at 3B..much less 1B or LF

Zacatecas

06-10-2009, 08:20 PM

Towels just isn't a major league hitter. He may eventually become one. But, he just hasn't shown he can hit in the Majors. I say trade him away, while he still has value.

Castro seems to be on the fast track to the ML by next year baby!!!

Major

06-10-2009, 09:25 PM

Towels just isn't a major league hitter. He may eventually become one. But, he just hasn't shown he can hit in the Majors. I say trade him away, while he still has value.

He's had a grand total of 200 at bats. There aren't very many hitters who come up and just start hitting. If you trade any hitter that struggles early on, there's no point in having a farm system.

Jared Novak

06-10-2009, 09:59 PM

It should be considered a luxury to the Astros to have two catching prospects that may be major league ready at the same time. That being said, I'm sure Castro is going to be favored as the everyday catcher all things being equal.

IMHO Towles was rushed because they wanted him to learn how to call the game from Ausmus and to get some major league experience. Unfortunately the level of pitching blew Towles away. He just needs to get better at the plate and will get another chance. He's only 25, so while he's still not technically a prospect, he is young enough to make the club and contribute either here or with another team.

BrooksBall

06-10-2009, 10:02 PM

Castro playing his first game with CC as we speak. He's 1-for-4 with a single, no walks, no strikeouts. Matsui is also there for rehab along with Valverde.

http://www.cchooks.com/statistics/default/g_box/2009_06_10_mroaax_coraax_1/

BrooksBall

06-11-2009, 08:01 PM

Not sure how many of you were already aware of this but you can watch CC games for free through a link on their homepage. The video quality isn't very good but it's definitely watchable.

Click on Video in the Game Center section: http://www.cchooks.com/

Here's a direct link for tonight's game: http://b2cabletv.com/?channelsid=74

Not sure if the direct link is different from game to game.

I saw Castro's first AB. He took a couple of bad swings but ended up making pretty good contact and flying out to the opposite field warning track.

BrooksBall

06-21-2009, 11:01 AM

Castro was a singles machine for his first several games. He finally got his first extra base hit yesterday.

So far, these are his numbers with CC:

33 AB
.333 AVG
.361 OBP
.364 SLG
1 2B
1 BB
3 SO
1 E

Miguel09

07-13-2009, 12:39 AM

they just mentioned how good he did on the USA team on Sportscenter

leroy420

07-13-2009, 08:45 AM

they just mentioned how good he did on the USA team on Sportscenter

To expand on that...Castro hit a 3 run hr for the USA team in the Future's Game. To make it even better, Chia-Jin Lo got the win for the International team with a perfect inning.

A great day for the Astros farm system and for the Ed Wade/Bobby Heck team.

TheRealist137

07-13-2009, 01:16 PM

Castro could probably play better than Pudge and Q if he got called up right now. I'd pencil him in as our 2010 starter right now.

leroy420

07-13-2009, 01:53 PM

Castro could probably play better than Pudge and Q if he got called up right now. I'd pencil him in as our 2010 starter right now.

My guess is that he'll start the season at AAA, much like Pence did 2 years ago, regardless of how he does in ST. If he is successful, he'll be up and starting no later than May 1.

Big Shot Bob

07-13-2009, 06:00 PM

My guess is that he'll start the season at AAA, much like Pence did 2 years ago, regardless of how he does in ST. If he is successful, he'll be up and starting no later than May 1.

You're probably right. But this kid is an absolute stud. Dare I say 5 tool player? Everytime I've seen him play, he plays awesome. His attitude absolutely reminds me of Pence's. That combo is going to be a spectacular foundation for the future. I'm really hoping that Mire turns out to be a gem too. Our other recent 1st pick of a draft (I think he was a 5th rounder the year Pupura got fired) is doing extremely well too.

Creepy Crawl

07-13-2009, 07:16 PM

This kid may be something good for a change.

The HR he hit in the Futures Game was a nice shot.

http://houston.astros.mlb.com/media/video.jsp?content_id=5567081&c_id=mlb

BrooksBall

07-13-2009, 07:43 PM

You're probably right. But this kid is an absolute stud. Dare I say 5 tool player?

Speed: No
AVG: Maybe
Power: Maybe but unlikely enough for it to be considered a tool
Arm: Maybe
Defense: Maybe

The lack of speed alone will prevent him from being a 5 tool player.

Attitude-wise, I'm not sure where you see the Pence comparison. I'd compare him to Berkman because of how calm, laid back he seems.

BrooksBall

07-22-2009, 12:52 AM

xcrunner51

07-22-2009, 01:20 AM

Castro with a big game last night: http://www.cchooks.com/statistics/default/g_box/2009_07_21_coraax_mroaax_1/

3-for-5 with a triple, double and 4 RBI.

Coming into today, he only had 3 XBHs in over 100 ABs at CC.

Koby Clemens is also hitting the ball well at Lancaster. He was just named California League Player of the Week as the league's top hitter. A RP for Lancaster got the same award as top pitcher.

I don't know what the plans are for Clemens but he's only 6 months older than Castro and seems to be DHing and catching.

I still don't know what the organization sees in Clemens, I assumed his drafting was a favor to his dad but they've kept Koby well after Rocket left. On the hierarchy of Stros catching prospects he's still below Castro and Towles.

The difference between him and Castro is that Castro is at AA in his first full pro season and Clemens is in high-A in his 4th full pro season. I know Clemens is having to learn catching from scratch but unless he improves that drastically, then he won't make the majors. His hitting ability isn't anything special.

BrooksBall

07-22-2009, 06:13 AM

I still don't know what the organization sees in Clemens, I assumed his drafting was a favor to his dad but they've kept Koby well after Rocket left. On the hierarchy of Stros catching prospects he's still below Castro and Towles.

The difference between him and Castro is that Castro is at AA in his first full pro season and Clemens is in high-A in his 4th full pro season. I know Clemens is having to learn catching from scratch but unless he improves that drastically, then he won't make the majors. His hitting ability isn't anything special.

Zach Levine posted some numbers in his blog yesterday that reflect how hitter-friendly some of our minor league parks are based on runs and HRs: http://blogs.chron.com/unofficialscorer/2009/07/astros_am_report_thats_what_yo.html

Here are how the Astros parks look in the three-year figure, with anything above 1.00 meaning it tends that many percent toward a hitter's park.

Round Rock
Runs: 0.97, HR: 0.99

Corpus Christi
Runs: 0.99, HR: 1.08

Lancaster
Runs: 1.14, HR: 1.21

Lexington
Runs: 0.98, HR: 1.08

Tri-City
Runs: 1.11, HR: 1.36

Lancaster's home park is one of the most hitter-friendly parks in all of the minors so that needs to be taken into consideration when looking at stats of both Jethawk hitters and pitchers. Accordingly, Clemens likely isn't as good of a AA hitter as his numbers at Lancaster would suggest. Like you said, he's probably nothing special.

I also hear that CC's home park is not favorable for left-handed hitters because of the wind going from right to left. That should be considered when looking at Castro's numbers.

It should also be considered that most of Castro's minor league hitting stats so far have been accumulated at two of the most hitter-friendly parks in the minors between Tri-City and Lancaster.

BrooksBall

08-03-2009, 04:07 AM

Little Clemens continues to pound the ball: http://www.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?sid=milb&t=g_box&gid=2009_08_02_lncafa_inlafa_1

He actually jumped passed Gaston for 2nd best OPS in the Cal League after last night's game (scroll down and sort by OPS): http://www.minorleaguebaseball.com/external/brandedstats/t491.html?t=l_bat&cid=491&lid=110

Buster Posey is 7th on that list.

Koby Clemens: http://www.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?pos=DH&sid=milb&t=p_pbp&pid=488784

Once again, Lancaster's home park is extremely hitter-friendly so that needs to be considered when looking at all Jethawk statistics.

rikesh316

08-03-2009, 11:56 AM

BrooksBall

09-11-2009, 12:41 PM

For anybody that has access to MLB Network, Jason Castro is playing in the Baseball World Cup right now. I think you can find online streams.

They lost to Venezuela in extras yesterday.

Castro went 0-for-5 with 2 SOs.

Justin Smoak went 4-for-6 with 2 HR and 5 RBI.

Here's the main site: http://2009baseballworldcup.com/

BrooksBall

09-11-2009, 02:41 PM

USA beat Germany 9-1.

Castro: 0-for-2, BB, HBP

Smoak: 1-for-3, HR, 2 BB

rockets934life

09-11-2009, 02:55 PM

BrooksBall

09-11-2009, 03:35 PM

I was pretty upset when the Stros passed on Smoak but understood the logic with the need pick in Castro and Puma still being a superstar caliber player while Smoak can only play first from what I heard so it made sense but man Smoak is turning into a beast while Puma's decline has started IMO.

When a farm system is in shambles, you take the best player available, IMO.

I hope they thought Castro was better than Smoak otherwise I don't agree with the logic.

As Morey preaches, build up your assets. The more good assets you have, the more flexibility you have to upgrade positions of need.

Raven Lunatic

09-11-2009, 03:40 PM

Meh, I'm sure you could find a 2 game stretch during the minor league stretch when Smoak looked bad and Castro looked like a world beater.

The Cat

09-11-2009, 03:43 PM

I was pretty upset when the Stros passed on Smoak but understood the logic with the need pick in Castro and Puma still being a superstar caliber player while Smoak can only play first from what I heard so it made sense but man Smoak is turning into a beast while Puma's decline has started IMO.

His decline hasn't started. It's no different than the slightly down season he had two years ago, which he rebounded from with a fabulous 2008. Berkman has been one great year-one very good year for years and years -- no reason to think this is any different.

BrooksBall

09-11-2009, 03:47 PM

Meh, I'm sure you could find a 2 game stretch during the minor league stretch when Smoak looked bad and Castro looked like a world beater.

You could also look at virtually ever single scouting report before and since that draft and see how highly Smoak is rated compared to Castro.

I actually haven't seen a single source that has Castro ranked anywhere near Smoak.

rockets934life

09-11-2009, 04:00 PM

When a farm system is in shambles, you take the best player available, IMO.

I hope they thought Castro was better than Smoak otherwise I don't agree with the logic.

As Morey preaches, build up your assets. The more good assets you have, the more flexibility you have to upgrade positions of need.

I understood it and Il go as far as to say it made sense, in there point of view, however I didn't agree with it. I completely agree with your point here and the other about the scouting report as it seemed to me and still does, to be a signablity issue a usual.

rockets934life

09-11-2009, 04:07 PM

His decline hasn't started. It's no different than the slightly down season he had two years ago, which he rebounded from with a fabulous 2008. Berkman has been one great year-one very good year for years and years -- no reason to think this is any different.

I noticed his power numbers going down a few weeks back and noted it yet I should have waited till the end of the season to make a fair assessment but then the stat come up about not hitting a homer since the break and validated what I was saying. I love the guy and he has become my Stros hero since the Baggy/Biggio era ended, so don't take this as not appreciating the man, but he has had a horrible power year even with a fiarly high OPS up to this point. Not saying trade the dude but Smoak would have been the obivous successor at 1st playing regularly when Puma contract expired the next year.

The Cat

09-11-2009, 04:17 PM

I noticed his power numbers going down a few weeks back and noted it yet I should have waited till the end of the season to make a fair assessment but then the stat come up about not hitting a homer since the break and validated what I was saying. I love the guy and he has become my Stros hero since the Baggy/Biggio era ended, so don't take this as not appreciating the man, but he has had a horrible power year even with a fiarly high OPS up to this point. Not saying trade the dude but Smoak would have been the obivous successor at 1st playing regularly when Puma contract expired the next year.

Again, horrible is quite an overstatement. His .495 slugging percentage is only slight below his .510 in 2007, his .524 in 2005 and .515 in 2003. His power has been bad in the month since he's come back from the calf injury (and there's probably a correlation there), but for the season, he's right on line with 2007, 2005 and 2003. Horrible is really, really stretching it.

rockets934life

09-11-2009, 04:26 PM

Again, horrible is quite an overstatement. His .495 slugging percentage is only slight below his .510 in 2007, his .524 in 2005 and .515 in 2003. His power has been bad in the month since he's come back from the calf injury (and there's probably a correlation there), but for the season, he's right on line with 2007, 2005 and 2003. Horrible is really, really stretching it.

Ok so if at the beginning of the year I told you Puma would have these numbers by Sep 11 giving the fact he was out for 3 weeks...

Avg HR RBI Runs
.273 19 69 62

You would have been happy with that? A would have been very disappointed even with the high OPS. Beginning a slight decline is a natural occurence in sluggers like Puma much like Baggy he will still put up good numbers but no longer great numbers it's ok but the problem is there is NO ONE to take his spot in after 2010 so we will likely resign him and as a result overpay for him.

BrooksBall

09-11-2009, 04:47 PM

Ok so if at the beginning of the year I told you Puma would have these numbers by Sep 11 giving the fact he was out for 3 weeks...

Avg HR RBI Runs
.273 19 69 62

You follow enough Astros baseball to know Berkman missed a bunch of games. Therefore, it's not fair to look at volume without considering that he missed nearly 25 games.

As far as the debate you are having with Cat, I'm with Cat. Berkman, and all baseball players for that matter, have fluctuations in their performance from year to year. Berkman's may follow a more distinct pattern but until his numbers go down for 2+ seasons in a row, let's not get carried away. He very well may put up huge numbers across the board next year. If he has another down year, then your argument may hold more weight at that point.

The Cat

09-11-2009, 04:57 PM

Ok so if at the beginning of the year I told you Puma would have these numbers by Sep 11 giving the fact he was out for 3 weeks...

Avg HR RBI Runs
.273 19 69 62

You would have been happy with that? A would have been very disappointed even with the high OPS. Beginning a slight decline is a natural occurence in sluggers like Puma much like Baggy he will still put up good numbers but no longer great numbers it's ok but the problem is there is NO ONE to take his spot in after 2010 so we will likely resign him and as a result overpay for him.

Those numbers are entirely inconsequential. First of all, you were talking about power, and average, RBI and runs have nothing to do with measuring power. Second, total numbers are a reflection of games played -- and Berkman has missed a decent chunk of time this year, far more than usual.

Let's say Albert Pujols were to miss two months one season with a broken arm, and of course he would, accordingly, have fewer home runs and RBIs than usual. Would you say he's on the decline? I'm guessing you wouldn't, and you would say his total numbers are simply down because of an injury. It's the same case here. Unless you think Berkman is going to become injury prone, look at the numbers -- OBP, SLG, OPS, etc. -- that measure what he's done relative to the time he's actually played.

rockets934life

09-11-2009, 05:00 PM

You follow enough Astros baseball to know Berkman missed a bunch of games. Therefore, it's not fair to look at volume without considering that he missed nearly 25 games.

As far as the debate you are having with Cat, I'm with Cat. Berkman, and all baseball players for that matter, have fluctuations in their performance year to year. Berkman's may follow a more distinct patter but until his numbers go down for 2+ seasons in a row, let's not get carried away. He very well may put up huge numbers across the board next season. If he has another down year, then your argument may hold more weight at that point.

Brooks, your right about missing a bunch of games, probably around 30 when its all said and done, thats why I compared his numbers to 2005 as he will end up with about the same number of games as that year and numbers will be only slightly lower. My concern was that year he missed the first month and a half of the season and struggled as excepted trying to get his stride and really playing on one leg. This year however he struggled most of the first half and the second half till he got hurt so the injury unlike in '05 could not be responsible for his struggles. I doubt he will ever put up numbers like in 06 and remember he had a bad, for Puma standards, 07 and second half of 08. Lance Z on 1560 brought up a great point a couple days ago, he has only 7 2nd half HRs the last two seasons so I would like him to limit his training this offseason as maybe thats the issue. If I am wrong then ill be the first to smile and admit it but just dont see it.

BrooksBall

09-11-2009, 05:05 PM

I am not ruling out the possibility of a decline in power, just that it's too early to draw that conclustion because of all the variability. I've read/heard the stuff they're saying in the local media.

As far as the beginning of this season, if I recall correctly, Berkman had some kind of bicep or shoulder injury or both coming into the season. I believe he stated he couldn't even lift the affected arm above his shoulder a couple of days before opening day. That injury or those injuries very well may have affected his bat speed, which seemed to be a problem early on.

Either way, there is nothing wrong with considering the possiblity of a Berkman decline. I just wouldn't draw conclusions yet. Let's see how he performs next season first.

rockets934life

09-11-2009, 05:06 PM

Those numbers are entirely inconsequential. First of all, you were talking about power, and average, RBI and runs have nothing to do with measuring power. Second, total numbers are a reflection of games played -- and Berkman has missed a decent chunk of time this year, far more than usual.

Let's say Albert Pujols were to miss two months one season with a broken arm, and of course he would, accordingly, have fewer home runs and RBIs than usual. Would you say he's on the decline? I'm guessing you wouldn't, and you would say his total numbers are simply down because of an injury. It's the same case here. Unless you think Berkman is going to become injury prone, look at the numbers -- OBP, SLG, OPS, etc. -- that measure what he's done relative to the time he's actually played.

In 2006 Prince Albert missed about 20 games that year with an injury and look at his numbers compared to other years. I know Pujols is a legend and I shouldn't compare the two but since you brought it up here it is. Sorry but when I look at power RBIs are very much a power number and Puma isn't a basestealer so when he scores runs its because he has hit for a ton of extra bases and a power number in his case.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/pujolal01.shtml

Sorry to lazy to cut and paste...lol

msn

09-11-2009, 05:26 PM

I'm sure T-Mac's decline is due almost entirely to injury. I'm being serious.

Injury is part of it, man. Berkman's getting hurt every year now, and this year, whether it's due to injury or not, his production has declined.

A decline is a decline. If he's back next year, great! Odds are, if he's healthy, he'll be stronger next year than this year. But here we go qualifying with "if he's healthy" again.

If you decline because you're old, decline because you suck, or decline because you're hurt, the net result is still the same: decline.

BrooksBall

09-11-2009, 05:29 PM

Berkman's getting hurt every year now...

Really?

This was only the second time in his career that he's missed extended time, the other being in 2005.

Berkman is far closer to an Iron Man than a McGrady Man.

There are some pretty extreme statements being made in this thread.

msn

09-11-2009, 05:34 PM

Those numbers are entirely inconsequential. First of all, you were talking about power, and average, RBI and runs have nothing to do with measuring power. Second, total numbers are a reflection of games played -- and Berkman has missed a decent chunk of time this year, far more than usual....

Unless you think Berkman is going to become injury prone, look at the numbers -- OBP, SLG, OPS, etc. -- that measure what he's done relative to the time he's actually played.
But the time he didn't play, the Astros still did. The investment they make in Lance's paycheck is for one of the premier producers in the game, and as such 19 dingers and 69 RBI's are *anything* but inconsequential.

"Become" injury prone? Lance has had time on the DL, off the top of my head, in '05, '07, '08, and '09. Last year, even when in the lineup, he was gimping around hoping not to aggravate his hammy. So, he was "stretching" doubles into singles and not running out grounders.

"If he weren't hurt" is so worthless. He was. His production is his production. Based on the amount of time he's spent on the DL over his career, if I were forced to wager whether he'd spend time there next year I'd wager he will.

...and that counts.

Again, whether it's because of age, or injury, or whatever, if your numbers are down they're down. And Lance's numbers are down.

Here's hoping he bounces back awesomely in 2010.

msn

09-11-2009, 05:38 PM

Really?
Yes, really. BUT...

This was only the second time in his career that he's missed extended time, the other being in 2005.
True. He plays through a lot of stuff -- but it's affecting his production, man. And while he hasn't missed "extended time" other years, he's missed time.

Berkman is far closer to an Iron Man than a McGrady Man.
Agreeed!! I did *not* intend to directly compare the two; only to state that if injuries are the reason for a decline it's still a decline.

There are some pretty extreme statements being made in this thread.
Sorry. And I don't intend to pile on Berkman. But it would seem that he's simply not the player he was in 2006, and certainly not 2001-2003. But I'm also not combing over the numbers, so perhaps my impressions are not accurate.

rockets934life

09-11-2009, 07:08 PM

Really?

This was only the second time in his career that he's missed extended time, the other being in 2005.

Berkman is far closer to an Iron Man than a McGrady Man.

There are some pretty extreme statements being made in this thread.

I actually hope I am wrong and everyone piles on me because I went over board but just looking at his age, numbers and injuries(MSN makes a valid point about injuries) its only expected that his numbers start to decline. He had an avg to bad 07, not a good second half of 08 and IMO disappointing 09 in the time he has been playing which leaves a stellar 1st hlf of 08 but thats it in three years. My original point was that Smoak would have been the ideal guy to replace Puma in a couple of years instead of Castro as Offensive catchers are a luxury but big time 1st baseman's are essential.

The Cat

09-12-2009, 02:10 PM

In 2006 Prince Albert missed about 20 games that year with an injury and look at his numbers compared to other years. I know Pujols is a legend and I shouldn't compare the two but since you brought it up here it is. Sorry but when I look at power RBIs are very much a power number and Puma isn't a basestealer so when he scores runs its because he has hit for a ton of extra bases and a power number in his case.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/pujolal01.shtml

Sorry to lazy to cut and paste...lol

Um, 2006 was the best SLG year of Albert's career. The point is, if he's having a normal year and he misses 20 games, his numbers would be a lot lower.

Look, I don't mean to be rude... but it's 2009, not 1950. If you really believe in evaluating baseball players with numbers like RBIs, runs and batting average, it's not worth my time to debate. Those numbers are flawed and ridiculous.

The Cat

09-12-2009, 02:15 PM

"Become" injury prone? Lance has had time on the DL, off the top of my head, in '05, '07, '08, and '09. Last year, even when in the lineup, he was gimping around hoping not to aggravate his hammy. So, he was "stretching" doubles into singles and not running out grounders.

What are you talking about? Berkman played 153 games in 2007, and 159 games in 2008. To go on the DL, you have to be out 15 days. Berkman did not go on the DL in 2007 or 2008 -- in fact, his trip this year was only the second time in his career (and the first from a baseball injury).

http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/sports/bb/6543923.html

Before this year, Berkman was an opening day starter in nine seasons. He played at least 152 games in eight of them, and the only one below - 2005 - was solely due to a freak offseason injury that caused him to miss April. He came back and played the duration of the season. This is the first year of his entire career he's had an in-season injury that has caused him to miss time.

"If he weren't hurt" is so worthless. He was. His production is his production. Based on the amount of time he's spent on the DL over his career, if I were forced to wager whether he'd spend time there next year I'd wager he will.

He's been in the majors since 1999, and been on the DL twice. And you're acting like this is a bad thing?!? :confused:

DoitDickau

09-12-2009, 02:27 PM

Berkman will be 34 next year. the overwhelming majority of players decline at that age, whether due to slower reflexes or increased injuries.

The Cat

09-12-2009, 02:31 PM

Berkman will be 34 next year. the overwhelming majority of players decline at the age, whether due to slower reflexes or increased injuries.

That may be true, but to declare the guy injury-prone after only the second trip to the DL in his 10-year career is quite extreme. And seeing as how his numbers are virtually identical to 2003, 2005 and 2007, I think it's extremely premature to suggest his 2009 indicates a decline.

BrooksBall

09-15-2009, 12:33 AM

Smoak with 2 more HRs tonight. I've lost count on how many he's hit in just a handful of games. I think it's 5 or 6. He's hitting .444 and his OPS must be nearly 1.500.

Castro is still hitless in the tournament.

BrooksBall

09-15-2009, 04:19 PM

Ottomaton

09-15-2009, 06:06 PM

juicystream

09-15-2009, 06:17 PM

Unreal, Smoak with another HR. He went 1-for-2, HR, 2 BB today. He's hitting .450 with about 7 HRs and a bunch of BBs in just a handful of games.

Castro still 0-for-the tournament. He did walk once today and once or twice in preivous games. He's the only player without a hit I believe.

Its time to get over it Brooks. Its all in the past and it doesn't matter at this point. And Castro may end up being a HOF player while Smoak becomes Carlos Pena. Of course Castro could become nothing and Smoak could by Ryan Howard.

RocketFan007

09-15-2009, 07:16 PM

Unreal, Smoak with another HR. He went 1-for-2, HR, 2 BB today. He's hitting .450 with about 7 HRs and a bunch of BBs in just a handful of games.

Castro still 0-for-the tournament. He did walk once today and once or twice in preivous games. He's the only player without a hit I believe.

I'm guessing Smoak is just crazy hot right now. He only hit 12 homers in almost 400 at bats this season.

BrooksBall

09-15-2009, 07:45 PM

I'm guessing Smoak is just crazy hot right now. He only hit 12 homers in almost 400 at bats this season.

He was rated considerably higher than Castro before the draft.

He's been rated considerably higher than Castro since the draft.

There is really nothing to get over. I'm just observing the performance of the two players and will continue to do so, particularly when they are playing in an international event together.

Jared Novak

09-15-2009, 07:52 PM

Regarding Castro over Smoak -

From comments made at the time, I infer that it was more than a choice of Smoak or Castro viewed in isolation. At the time, Heck or someone else said that choosing Castro "was part of their stragegy for allocating resources" or something similar.

Castro's bonus was about $2 mil. Smoak's was about $3.6 mil. The same year the team went way over slot for two picks in the early rounds - Lyles and Seaton - and someone else (Dydalewicz?) later on. Based on the way things turned out, I have to imagine that if they had chosen Smoak, they wouldn't have taken Lyles or Seaton or the third guy.

I think a strategy of saving a bit on the first pick to spread it around on guys with signability issues but top talent in later rounds is a very defensable strategy.

Bobby Heck stated that the reason for picking Castro is that he felt Castro was "all-around" player and that Smoak was "one-dimensional". The Astros were in badly need of a true catching prospect (this was before Koby Clemens decided to flip the switch) and saw Castro as a player that could move through the minors quickly, and foremost they believed he could learn how to be field general and handle calling games for a staff. I wouldn't worry about Castro not doing well for Team USA. He has caught quite a few games, maintained a .300 BA through both Hi-A and AA and looked great most of the minor league season. Smoak struggled when he got to AAA and has hit his groove lately. While it would be nice to have Smoak (I was also mad at the Astros for passing him up) I am excited to have Castro come up to the majors.

I do wonder where the same philosophy of "allocating resources" went this past draft. The Astros signed just 25 of their first 26 picks, many right away. And while that in itself was awesome, they didn't seem to take chances like they did last draft with Seaton (who fell because he was considered a lock to Tulane), signing Dydalewicz for over slot and giving Lyles over slot as well. I thought they might have gone overslot for Greg Peavey out of Oregon St. considering he is looked at as a possible first rounder this upcoming draft. I believe Heck and Wade are doing their best to rebuild the farm, but I hope they look at talent first and signability second.

I do wonder though

BrooksBall

09-15-2009, 08:11 PM

The biggest positive I sense about Castro so far is that he has a good head on his shoulders.

Statistically, his power numbers went down drastically between Lancaster and Corpus, as expected. Lancaster is one of the most hitter-friendly parks in the minors while the wind current is apparently not favorable for lefties at Corpus. He does seem to be a patient hitter who will get on base at a decent clip, something that would be a welcome addition to this team.

Corpus OPS: .747 in 239 ABs (.385 SLG)
Lancaster OPS: .916 in 207 ABs (.517 SLG)

According to every resource I've come across, Smoak has far more upside but we shall see. All of them could be wrong.

BrooksBall

09-22-2009, 08:18 AM

Smoak just won't stop. 3 more HRs in the last 2 games, 9 total in the tournament. His numbers are staggering. I have to imagine he's putting up a near record individual performance for the BWC.

Castro finally got a couple of singles but he's still having a pretty bad showing.

Here are the cumulative stats for Team USA: http://web.usabaseball.com/news/stats.jsp?ymd=20090921&content_id=7081132&vkey=recap_usab&gid=2009/09/21/ausint-usaint-1