2008 MLB Draft

[htownbball]

It's less than a month away. June 5th and 6th. Everyone knows of last year's mishandling of the draft where we didn't sign our first 2 picks. Both of them are getting steady playing time and Derek Dietrich could be freshman of the year.

Anyways, we have quite a few picks this year. 10th overall, then a supplemental 1st rounder, and also a 3rd round supplemental pick.

Our farm system is THE weakest system in baseball, and we just traded away most of our top prospects in the last 2 years. Hirsh, Patton, Albers, and Gutierrez are all gone. Nieve and Paulino are also coming off injuries. So our pitching is pretty thin.

Our offense is also really thin, and honestly I'm not even sure if any of our current minor league hitters could make it to the majors and actually make an impact.

So who could we be looking at this draft? With our current situation, we are in win-now mode. I think we should look less at projection and more at who can make the quickest impact at any position. I think we may lean more towards taking a pitcher though since pitching is at such a premium and our rotation is in a mess. Also because we have Lee and Berkman and Pence for awhile. However, we do need a long term solution at 3B, SS, and 2B.

Pitchers who could be there at 10:

LHP Christian Friedrich- Eastern Kentucky
A big lefty sort of in the mold of Brian Bogusevic. Fastball is 88-94 and a lights out curveball. Command is average at best and he's faced a low level of competition. Doesn't throw his changeup much either.

RHP Shooter Hunt- Tulane
Power pitcher with a power pitcher's build at 6'3 205lbs. 90-95mph fastball with a plus curveball. Changeup is a distant 3rd pitch. Struggles with command and walks too many hitters, but he has the stuff to succeed.

RHP Tanner Scheppers- Fresno St.
Raw projectable type with a 92-95mph fastball and an electric slider. Has a tall frame with long arms and could add muscle, making his stuff all that more projectable. Could hit 100mph in the future. Relatively inexperienced at pitching and walks too many. Inconsistent and needs some work, but the raw ability is there.

RHP Tim Mellville- Highschool
Probably the most polished highschool pitcher this year. Fastball is 92-94mph and he has a swing and miss curveball. Throws an average changeup. Astros and highschool pitchers generally don't go together though because of the bonus demands.

Hitters we could look at:

SS Gordon Beckham- Georgia
Having a huge year. His frame doesn't project much power, but he's got a quick bat. Average defensively. May move to 2B, but that's fine since we need a 2nd baseman. Could be an Ian Kinsler or Jeff Kent type player as an offensive 2nd baseman who is just average defensively.

1B Yonder Alonso- Miami
A polished hitter with projectable power. Kind of a less powerful Lance Berkman. Good approach at the plate and draws walks. More of a 25 home run , 40 double type than just a pure masher though. Should move quickly in the minors. I know we don't need a 1B, but Alonso will probably be the safest/best hitter available.

C/SS Buster Posey- Florida St.
He could actually go #1 overall, but that would be a huge reach. He's very athletic and draws comparisons to Craig Biggio. Could be a solid catcher or a solid shortstop who hits 15+ homeruns.

I think for now, the hitters would probably be the safest bet. All of the pitchers who would be available have big questions, whether it's level of play, experience, or command. I think if Gordon Beckham is there, he's our guy. If not, then either Friedrich or Shooter. I think there is better value in taking a college pitcher later, like in the supplemental or 2nd round. Tyson Ross is a guy who has just as big of upside as the others, but needs some refinement. Jacob Thompson from Virginia could shoot through the minors, but profiles as a #3 or #4 pitcher. He's having a down year so hopefully we can get him later. If we can get either in the 1S or 2nd, I'd be very happy.

[SuperS32]

If there is one thing Ed Wade excels at, it's the draft, particularly the first 3 rounds. Even his critics admit that the man knows what he's doing when he's scouting high-end amateur talent. Chase Utley, Ryan Howard, Brett Myers, Pat Burrel, Gavin Floyd, Cole Hamels and Michael Bourn are all picks by Ed Wade in the first five rounds.

[xcrunner51]

Considering how long it takes for most drafted players to reach the majors and further make an impact, the MLB draft should always just be BPA. In 3-5 years, our situation could be markedly different so drafting a pitcher who will have a short term in the minors (e.g. drafting a power college closer) would just be shortsighted. Even Big Puma is 32; drafting his replacement wouldn't be a terrible idea.

EDIT* After rereading your list, the one type of player I'd tend to skip drafting with a high first rounder would be some like Scheppers. His description reminds me too much of Colt Griffin, the Texas HS'er who threw 100mph but was extremely raw. He ended up going a pick before ours (#9 to KC) and we ended up drafting Chris Burke. I was devastated at the time but Burke did wayyyy more for us than Griffin did for KC. Chris Burke, game 4, thank you sir.

[htownbball]

Considering how long it takes for most drafted players to reach the majors and further make an impact, the MLB draft should always just be BPA. In 3-5 years, our situation could be markedly different so drafting a pitcher who will have a short term in the minors (e.g. drafting a power college closer) would just be shortsighted. Even Big Puma is 32; drafting his replacement wouldn't be a terrible idea.

Recently teams have been moving guys aggressively through the system. Evan Longoria, Ryan Zimmerman, Luke Hochevar, Andrew Miller, Brandon Morrow, Tim Lincecum, Max Scherzer, Ian Kennedy, Justin Upton, Alex Gordon, Jeff Clement, Ryan Braun, Troy Tulowitzki, Mike Pelfrey, Matt Garza, Jacoby Ellsbury...all of those guys were taken in either 2005 or 2006, so with these top guys, 2 years seems like the going rate at which guys make it to the majors. So hopefully our 1st rounder can make it by 2010.

[htownbball]

Also, the guys I listed are pretty much the best available too. It's somewhat of a weak draft at the top. Hopefully Gordon Beckham is there. He can take over for either Tejada or Matsui.

[cardpire]

Considering how long it takes for most drafted players to reach the majors and further make an impact, the MLB draft should always just be BPA. In 3-5 years, our situation could be markedly different so drafting a pitcher who will have a short term in the minors (e.g. drafting a power college closer) would just be shortsighted. Even Big Puma is 32; drafting his replacement wouldn't be a terrible idea.

EDIT* After rereading your list, the one type of player I'd tend to skip drafting with a high first rounder would be some like Scheppers. His description reminds me too much of Colt Griffin, the Texas HS'er who threw 100mph but was extremely raw. He ended up going a pick before ours (#9 to KC) and we ended up drafting Chris Burke. I was devastated at the time but Burke did wayyyy more for us than Griffin did for KC. Chris Burke, game 4, thank you sir.


funny...based on his descriptions, the player i'd want is Scheppers.

[xcrunner51]

It's true, teams are starting to rush some can't miss prospects through the minors, but there are some caveats.

1) Most of the players you listed were can't miss (i.e. top 5) players. I don't think any of the guys that'll last til 10 are those types of can't miss prospects. Jacoby went 23rd but is pretty much a fluke.

2) the Astros definitely don't have a history of rushing players through the minors. I don't know Ed Wade's history of pushing players through the minors but I can't remember any Astros prospect that got pushed through the minors in 2 years or less.

Back to Scheppers, based on his description he would take at least 3-4 years in the minors and wouldn't help the club til 2011 or 2012.

[htownbball]

It's true, teams are starting to rush some can't miss prospects through the minors, but there are some caveats.

1) Most of the players you listed were can't miss (i.e. top 5) players. I don't think any of the guys that'll last til 10 are those types of can't miss prospects. Jacoby went 23rd but is pretty much a fluke.

2) the Astros definitely don't have a history of rushing players through the minors. I don't know Ed Wade's history of pushing players through the minors but I can't remember any Astros prospect that got pushed through the minors in 2 years or less.

Back to Scheppers, based on his description he would take at least 3-4 years in the minors and wouldn't help the club til 2011 or 2012.

I respectfully disagree. This year has a ton of top 1B prospects and I think Yonder Alonso could be that type that gets to the majors within 2 years. He draws a ton of walks, doesnt strike out, hits for a high average, projects to hit with power, and he goes the opposite way with authority. I think both him and Gordon Beckham could move very quickly. It's shame we don't need a 1B. Sure Big Puma is 32, but he's signed til 2011. He'll only be 35 by then, and we will undoubtedly resign him again.

One wildcard could be Eric Hosmer, the best highschool hitter this year. He's also a 1B, but he could take 4 years or so to get to the bigs. By then, Carlos Lee will be in the last year of his contract so Hosmer could take over LF and be like Berkman v.2 and play the OF and then move to 1B. He's not a great athlete, but he should be ok with the short LF fence. He can also throw 95+mph.

I know that in 3-4 years that our team could be entirely different, but Lee and Berkman are pretty much locked in for some time.

[htownbball]

1st rounders who've played in the majors, 10th pick and after 2005 and 2006

2005
Cameron Maybin- 10
Jacoby Ellsbury- 23
Matt Garza- 25
Craig Hansen- 26
Joey Devine- 27
Travis Buck- 1S
Clay Buccholz- 1S
Jed Lowrie- 1S
Garret Olson- 1S

2006
Tim Lincecum- 10
Max Scherzer- 11
Ian Kennedy- 21
Emmanuel Burris- 33
Joba Chamberlain- 41

[DoitDickau]

I'm excited about the draft. It is a real good chance to start restocking the farm system. I've been following the draft, but have no knowledge of it other than second hand stuff from the internet. From what I've gathered it is a relatively deep in the first round, but it lacks a real elite level talent at the top of the draft (like the uptons or prior, etc). I think Posey skyrocketing from basically out of the projected top ten to now being the favorite to go #1 speaks to that.

The consensus seems to be that it's a good first round for college hitters (particularly firstbasemen) but somewhat weak on college pitchers and high school players. If Posey(c) goes #1 to the Rays, then the consensus rest of the top 5 fills out as Alvarez(3b), Tim Beckham(ss), Aaron Crow(rhp) and Brian Matusz(lhp) (in no particular order). None of those four will fall to ten (maybe the slightest possibility of Crow, but still extremely unlikely). After that it's really anyone's guess. In addition to the players mentioned by htownbball here are some others mentioned in the 5-15 range.

C Kyle Skipworth
1B: Justin Smoak, Eric Hosmer (hs), Brett Wallace

The Astros have basically said that they'll look for the best player available but are they going to stay within mlb slotting guidelines?

What is the Astros stance with Scott Boras clients? A number of the top potential draft picks are Boras clients. If a Crow or a Hosmer fall to 10, and the Astros have them as the top available player, do the Astros pass on him due to slotting and/or Boras?

There will likely be a talented 1st baseman available at ten. For all the talk about bpa would the Astros take an Alonso or a Smoak (if he falls) when they have Berkman?

Likewise would the Astros have the balls to take another HS catcher in Kyle Skipworth with a top pick after what happened in 2005 and 2006?

Right now i'm hoping that G. Beckham or Smoak falls to ten. Beckham is a better fit for the Astros needs, but lets be realistic, given the state of the system and the age of the mlb team, the Astros need future help everywhere. If in two years Smoak is a top prospect and Berkman is still entrenched, and mashing, at 1st then it's a good problem to have and you can deal with it then. Just get the best player.

I'm always skeptical of taking a young pitcher this high because of the injury concerns. Scheppers is particular intriguing, but his current sore shoulder scares me. The Astros need to get some value from this pick, so imo, unless a pitcher is clearly the better talent, go with the position player in the first round.

[Trader_Jorge]

I wouldn't mind nabbing Robbie Grossman, the CF from Cy-Fair. Speed/power combo and great intensity. Best player in the area is a Junior though -- Matt Purke from Klein. Transferred in from Lufkin a year ago -- lefty with gas and command of multiple pitches. Can't miss prospect.

[bigtexxx]

The Rice Owls put a lickin' on Shooter Hunt tonight. Rice took the game 6-0 at Tulane, which is very difficult to do. Ryan Berry for the Owls, who is only a sophomore, tossed the shutout for Rice. Now that is a guy the Astros should look at....must wait until next year's draft, though

[htownbball]

i agree. after beckham, i have smoak being the best player for us just because he's the same type of hitter that berkman is. guy is gonna be hitting 35 homers and play gold glove defense. i doubt he falls out of the top 5, and he probably will go to san francisco because they are in dire need of power.

as for the pitchers, matusz and crow fit us, but after that, its wide open. those guys wont fall either.

doubtful that we'd go after hosmer if he's around. not only because he's a highschooler, but because boras has been reporting a bonus of $7m+ for him.

TB- C Buster Posey
Rumor has him as the favorite for #1, even though he isnt the top talent

Pitt- 3B Pedro Alvarez
Pitt is in dire need of a big bat

KC- P Aaron Crow
Between Crow and Matusz. Go with the local kid from Mizzou. Took a big bat last year and their pitching on the farm is thin.

Balt- P Brian Matusz
Need the BPA. Pitching always gets the nod over a hitter, especially when they're 1B.

SF- 1B Justin Smoak
They need a power bat

FLA- C Kyle Skipworth
Somewhat of a reach, but they don't have a top catcher in the system. Should come cheaper as well

Cin- SS Tim Beckham
They're in somewhat of a rebuilding mode so they can afford to wait on Beckham.

CWS- 1B Yonder Alonso
They need a power bat to take over for Konerko/Thome. Take Alonso due to his polish and because Hosmer is asking for too much

Wash- SS Gordon Beckham
They need a SS in the system and some offense.

Astros- ------------

BPA: Eric Hosmer, Tim Melville, Shooter Hunt, Christian Friedrich, Tanner Scheppers

[htownbball]

The Rice Owls put a lickin' on Shooter Hunt tonight. Rice took the game 6-0 at Tulane, which is very difficult to do. Ryan Berry for the Owls, who is only a sophomore, tossed the shutout for Rice. Now that is a guy the Astros should look at....must wait until next year's draft, though

Actually, Shooter Hunt went 8 innings, 4 runs, 3 earned...not too bad really. Reliever after him gave up 2 runs.

[htownbball]

Tanner Scheppers out for 6 weeks with a stress fracture IN HIS SHOULDER

cross him off the board kiddos

Shooter Hunt against Rice tonight- 8 innings, 5 hits, 4 runs, 3 earned 5 k's, 4BB

Other HS Pitchers- Garrit Cole and Alex Meyer, but I think Melville is the most polished because he throws an average changeup

[Fegwu]

Tanner Scheppers out for 6 weeks with a stress fracture IN HIS SHOULDER

cross him off the board kiddos

Shooter Hunt against Rice tonight- 8 innings, 5 hits, 4 runs, 3 earned 5 k's, 4BB

Other HS Pitchers- Garrit Cole and Alex Meyer, but I think Melville is the most polished because he throws an average changeup

Thanks for the updates.

I Wade we trust.

[DoitDickau]

i agree. after beckham, i have smoak being the best player for us just because he's the same type of hitter that berkman is. guy is gonna be hitting 35 homers and play gold glove defense. i doubt he falls out of the top 5, and he probably will go to san francisco because they are in dire need of power.

as for the pitchers, matusz and crow fit us, but after that, its wide open. those guys wont fall either.

doubtful that we'd go after hosmer if he's around. not only because he's a highschooler, but because boras has been reporting a bonus of $7m+ for him.

TB- C Buster Posey
Rumor has him as the favorite for #1, even though he isnt the top talent

Pitt- 3B Pedro Alvarez
Pitt is in dire need of a big bat

KC- P Aaron Crow
Between Crow and Matusz. Go with the local kid from Mizzou. Took a big bat last year and their pitching on the farm is thin.

Balt- P Brian Matusz
Need the BPA. Pitching always gets the nod over a hitter, especially when they're 1B.

SF- 1B Justin Smoak
They need a power bat

FLA- C Kyle Skipworth
Somewhat of a reach, but they don't have a top catcher in the system. Should come cheaper as well

Cin- SS Tim Beckham
They're in somewhat of a rebuilding mode so they can afford to wait on Beckham.

CWS- 1B Yonder Alonso
They need a power bat to take over for Konerko/Thome. Take Alonso due to his polish and because Hosmer is asking for too much

Wash- SS Gordon Beckham
They need a SS in the system and some offense.

Astros- ------------

BPA: Eric Hosmer, Tim Melville, Shooter Hunt, Christian Friedrich, Tanner Scheppers

From what i've heard I doubt that Tim Beckham falls out of the top 5. I've also seen multiple rumors that the cws like Brett Wallace at 8, which would be a major reach

[xcrunner51]

MLB.com top ten pick mock draft

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20080514&content_id=2698111&vkey=draft2008&fext=.jsp

[htownbball]

Tim Beckham's draft position is pretty fluid. He's a better athlete at this point than a pure baseball player, but its hard to ignore his tools. His bat is the biggest question. He compares favorably to guys like Andrew Mccutchen and Cameron Maybin, and they went 9 and 10.

Guys like Matusz, Smoak, and Alvarez are pretty much can't miss guys. Crow throws 96 with command, and Posey is getting #1 consideration. It's very easy to go with these safe guys because all of them could be all stars. And with the way organizations are trying to get their picks up to the majors ASAP, i can see Beckham slipping out of the top 5.

[Ottomaton]

Guys like Matusz, Smoak, and Alvarez are pretty much can't miss guys.

I read somewhere that Matusz fastball was topping out at about 88mph this last year. The way they are talking about him reminds me of the way that they talked about CJ Nitkowski. The fact that he is a left hander and is very polished is making them overlook the central flaw of an average to below arm.

I have no great knowledge base to back it up from or direct observation of Matusz, but I just worry that he is going to be the second comming of CJ Nitkowski - a 'can't miss' prospect, drafted #9 overall in '94 who pretty much missed.

[htownbball]

I read somewhere that Matusz fastball was topping out at about 88mph this last year. The way they are talking about him reminds me of the way that they talked about CJ Nitkowski. The fact that he is a left hander and is very polished is making them overlook the central flaw of an average to below arm.

I have no great knowledge base to back it up from or direct observation of Matusz, but I just worry that he is going to be the second comming of CJ Nitkowski - a 'can't miss' prospect, drafted #9 overall in '94 who pretty much missed.


not sure where you heard that from...he's usually 90-94mph
http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/events/draft_report/y2008/index.jsp?mc=matusz

[htownbball]

did some research...apparently matusz got off to a slow start this year, which is probably where you heard his dropoff in velocity, but in that start on april 25, he was up to 93-94mph and sitting 88-92 like he usually does.

[htownbball]

http://houston.astros.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20080515&content_id=2710321&vkey=news_hou&fext=.jsp&c_id=hou

recent story on the astros' draft

my top 10 big board right now for us

1 RHP Aaron Crow
2 LHP Brian Matusz
3 SS Gordon Beckham
4 SS Tim Beckham
5 3B Pedro Alvarez
6 1B Justin Smoak
7 C Buster Posey
8 LHP Christian Friedrich
9 RHP Shooter Hunt
10 RHP Tim Melville

[Jared Novak]

There is no clear cut favorite this year at #1, but the Astros have a chance to get some decent players and start restocking the farm system. One of my main concerns is that we are at #10 and the signing bonus for that slot is going to be high (in fact it will be more than what the Astros spent all of last year on the entire draft).

I've heard interviews with Bobby Heck, the Astros director of scouting, who rebuilt Milwaukee's farm system and without saying who they're looking at, I think they are going BPA.

Personally I like Gordon Beckham (SS) out of Georgia, I really like Tim Beckham, but he will probably be long gone by the time our pick comes up as well as Pedro Alvarez who should go top five. I'd like to see the Astros either take a projected starting pitcher (Tim Melville, Shooter Hunt, Christian Friedrich, Ethan Martin), a middle infielder (either of the Beckhams) or a slugging first baseman (Hosmer is my pick, but his signing bonus demands are going to be through the roof as he has Boras as his "advisor").

Either way the Astros have Bobby Heck and Ed Wade calling the shots and they are both known for being able to spot amateur talent.

[DoitDickau]

Baseball America's newest mock draft

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/draft/mock-draft/2008/266117.html

10. ASTROS. New scouting director Bobby Heck comes from the Brewers, who always keep their draft plans close to the vest. It's believed that Houston would prefer Skipworth if he got by the Marlins. Otherwise, one of the few remaining quality college starters could be the direction in which the Astros would go. Houston took another Tulane starter (Brian Bogusevic) in the first round three years ago, and it will hope for better results this time.

Projected Pick: SHOOTER HUNT.

[DoitDickau]

John Sickels draft board

http://www.minorleagueball.com/2008/5/17/519689/john-s-2008-draft-board-as

Here is a look at my current draft board. THIS IS NOT A PREDICTION OR PROJECTION OF THE FIRST ROUND. This is my current personal opinion of these players. This will continue to change as we approach draft day and some players are already ranked differently compared to the lists I've been doing this past week.

1) Buster Posey, C, Florida State: Great bat, has proven to be solid defender.
2) Tim Beckham, SS, Georgia HS: Overall tools package.
3) Kyle Skipworth, C, California HS: Hits, fields, and intuition loves him.
4) Gordon Beckham, SS, Georgia: Love him almost as much as Posey.
5) Justin Smoak, 1B, South Carolina: Best college bat but not as valuable defensively as Posey and Beckham.
6) Aaron Crow, RHP, Missouri: Stock has dropped just a hair but still looks great to me.
7) Brian Matusz, LHP, San Diego: Could easily flip with Crow.
8) Pedro Alvarez, 3B, Vanderbilt: Injury knocks him back a couple of notches but still elite.
9) Eric Hosmer, 1B, Florida HS: All reports look great. Signability?
10) Yonder Alonso, 1B, Miami: Another bat impossible not to love.
11) Tanner Scheppers, RHP, Fresno State (ASSUMES GOOD HEALTH REPORTS): I loved him before he got hurt, not sure how to rank him now.
12) Aaron Hicks, OF-RHP, California HS: Hitter or pitcher? Either way I think I'd rank him here.
13) Christian Friedrich, LHP, Eastern Kentucky: A safe solid pick.
14) Josh Fields, RHP, Georgia: Great stuff, could move quickly, affordable.
15) Shooter Hunt, RHP, Tulane: Great stuff, command is an issue.
16) Ethan Martin, RHP, Georgia HS: I'm assuming he will get drafted as a pitcher.
17) Bret Wallace, 3B-1B, Arizona State: Patience and power.
18) Ike Davis, OF, Arizona State: I rated him a bit ahead of Wallace before and they could flip flop again.
19) Jemile Weeks, 2B, Miami: Not sure he will have an impact bat like these other guys but all-around talent keeps him in the middle of the round.
20) Andrew Cashner, RHP, TCU: Closer prospect has risen rapidly. Could move up further.
21) Tim Melville, RHP, Missouri HS: Opinions are starting to shift about this guy, some rate him in the top 15 still, others have him dropping out of the Top 30 altogether. I don't know what to think.
22) Reese Havens, SS, South Carolina: Love the bat, though I expect him to move to third.
23) Zach Putnam, RHP, Michigan: I seem to like him more than other people do.
24) Kyle Lobstein, LHP, Arizona HS: My opinion of him is rising but signability looks like a problem.
25) Eric Thames, OF, Pepperdine: I buy into the bat improvement.
26) David Cooper, 1B, California: Another power bat that should do well in pro ball.
27) Jake Odorizzi, RHP, Illinois HS: I was thinking about him as a second rounder but stock has risen dramatically lately and the more I study the more I like him.
28) Ryan Perry, RHP, Arizona: Power arm, erratic but a high ceiling.
29) Isaac Galloway, OF, California HS: Another guy I like more than other people it seems. Is he getting nitpicked?
30) Jason Castro, C, Stanford: I'm not 100% convinced about the bat yet.

Expect this list to change a lot, especially after the top ten.

[Bag0b0y]

I wouldn't mind nabbing Robbie Grossman, the CF from Cy-Fair. Speed/power combo and great intensity. Best player in the area is a Junior though -- Matt Purke from Klein. Transferred in from Lufkin a year ago -- lefty with gas and command of multiple pitches. Can't miss prospect.

I graduated from cy-fair and have been impressed with the players as of late coming out...this is the first time i've heard of grossman..is he 1st round material?

[DoitDickau]

I graduated from cy-fair and have been impressed with the players as of late coming out...this is the first time i've heard of grossman..is he 1st round material?

Seen him projected as a 2-3 round pick

[DoitDickau]

new mock from mlb.com

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20080521&content_id=2742021&vkey=draft2008&fext=.jsp

"10. Houston Astros: Yonder Alonso, 1B, University of Miami
With last week's pick, Scheppers, no longer an option, the Astros could still go pitching with Hunt or maybe Christian Friedrich out of Eastern Kentucky. But here's a hunch that they'll decide an advanced bat is the way to go and unless Smoak drops to them, Alonso is the next best option as a lefty-hitting first baseman who can hit for average and power.
Last week's projection: Tanner Scheppers"

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20080521&content_id=2743374&vkey=draft2008&fext=.jsp

"txboy2004: Do the Astros take the best available player with the No. 10 pick since the farm is so empty or do they go with a college closer to try to help quickly?

Mayo: I don't think i'd necessarily go college closer at No. 10 overall, though that is a strength of this Draft and there are some guys with some big arms to choose from, like Ryan Perry and Andrew Cashner. I think they can take the best available guy who'll get there pretty quickly. To me, that's a college bat like Yonder Alonso."

[MadMax]

I really like the idea of having a guy named Yonder in the lineup.

[Groogrux]

I really like the idea of having a guy named Yonder in the lineup.

I like Shooter Hunt better!

[MadMax]

I like Shooter Hunt better!

Hunter Pence and Shooter Hunt. That's almost too great.

[Major]

Is the guy athletic enough to convert to another position? Presumably, Berkman is established at 1B for the next 5 or 6 years (and Lee for at least 3 or 4 in LF) and since he's a college guy, I'm assuming the plan wouldn't be to wait 5+ years on him, so he'd need be able to move, or we risk another Daryle Ward/Jason Lane/Chris Burke type situation where they languish in the minors because there's no place to put them.

[DoitDickau]

Is the guy athletic enough to convert to another position? Presumably, Berkman is established at 1B for the next 5 or 6 years (and Lee for at least 3 or 4 in LF) and since he's a college guy, I'm assuming the plan wouldn't be to wait 5+ years on him, so he'd need be able to move, or we risk another Daryle Ward/Jason Lane/Chris Burke type situation where they languish in the minors because there's no place to put them.

alonso: no dh or 1b

Smoak: gold glove caliber at 1st, possibly can be moved to left

in 3 years berkman would be over 35. Most players, including Bagwell and Biggio, are basically done after 35. Berkman may or may not, but at that point you can either trade your prospect or trade berkman. I would hope that the organization would have learned from the way they handled the biggio/burke (kent) debacle.

[Ottomaton]

Is the guy athletic enough to convert to another position?

I believe I have read that Alonzo is basically only a first baseman, and not the best one in the world at that.

According to MLB.com (http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/events/draft_report/y2008/index.jsp?mc=smoak), the same is true of Smoak.

[FR0497]

I respectfully disagree. This year has a ton of top 1B prospects and I think Yonder Alonso could be that type that gets to the majors within 2 years. He draws a ton of walks, doesnt strike out, hits for a high average, projects to hit with power, and he goes the opposite way with authority. I think both him and Gordon Beckham could move very quickly. It's shame we don't need a 1B. Sure Big Puma is 32, but he's signed til 2011. He'll only be 35 by then, and we will undoubtedly resign him again.

One wildcard could be Eric Hosmer, the best highschool hitter this year. He's also a 1B, but he could take 4 years or so to get to the bigs. By then, Carlos Lee will be in the last year of his contract so Hosmer could take over LF and be like Berkman v.2 and play the OF and then move to 1B. He's not a great athlete, but he should be ok with the short LF fence. He can also throw 95+mph.

I know that in 3-4 years that our team could be entirely different, but Lee and Berkman are pretty much locked in for some time.

What were Eric Hosmer's numbers for this past season? His size is impressive but if we're looking at just numbers look up Anthony Rendon SS for Lamar in Houston. Led or was top 3 in every major offensive category in the Houston area this past year. Led the Houston area last year in HR's also.

[bigtexxx]

What were Eric Hosmer's numbers for this past season? His size is impressive but if we're looking at just numbers look up Anthony Rendon SS for Lamar in Houston. Led or was top 3 in every major offensive category in the Houston area this past year. Led the Houston area last year in HR's also.

Rendon is a player.

He's already committed to Rice and will be one of the NCAA's best hitters the next 3 years

[FR0497]

Rendon is a player.

He's already committed to Rice and will be one of the NCAA's best hitters the next 3 years

Agree, but money talks as we all know and if he can get a nize sized signing bonus he will bypass college. The great thing about the contracts these kids coming out of high school get now is there is a clause that if they have a career season injury the team will pay for them to go back to the college they were originally supposed to go to. The hard thing for them is ACTUALLY going back if that were to happen.

[htownbball]

hosmer might be the best option, with no consideration to signability. he's got a strong arm and can throw 95mph. he has a hitch in his swing, and he's got an abnormally high amount of strikeouts for a dominant high schooler, even though the competition is very good in his area. he does have 17 steals this year, leading me to believe he could move to LF if need be. however, he may be 4 years away and berkman might hang em up by then.

[bigtexxx]

Agree, but money talks as we all know and if he can get a nize sized signing bonus he will bypass college. The great thing about the contracts these kids coming out of high school get now is there is a clause that if they have a career season injury the team will pay for them to go back to the college they were originally supposed to go to. The hard thing for them is ACTUALLY going back if that were to happen.

Of course if he gets the cash I'm sure he'll go that route. However, I haven't seen him listed among the top prospect lists....likely because of his size. He's not that big of a dude. Rice got burned last year by the Yankees when they decided to throw a million bucks at their 10th round pick (and Rice signee), Lake Charles SS Carmen Angelini. That's 1st round money. Unless you're picked by one of the NY teams, Cubs or Dodgers, if you're picked below about the 5th round or so, you're not getting enough cash to make the decision to bypass college

[Jared Novak]

The Astros are IMHO definitely going to have to go offer slot money to sign any of the high school players in the first round. If they go college player, their chances are greater of signing the draftee since their options are limited. That being said I still hope they pick the BPA and don't let the signing bonus demands dictate how they draft. IMHO Hosmer is going to drop simply because of his signing bonus demands (he is a Boras client), Alvarez might not be #1 but he'll be a top five pick based on his talent and the fact that he plays a premium position.

According to Jim Callis @ BA, the Astros are pining for Kyle Skipworth, C out of California (HS). After reading his scouting reports I can see why the Astros or any team for that matter would like him. Whatever they do, I hope the Astros pick some players who can reach their potential and help shore up the farm system.

[bigtexxx]

The Astros are IMHO definitely going to have to go offer slot money to sign any of the high school players in the first round. If they go college player, their chances are greater of signing the draftee since their options are limited. That being said I still hope they pick the BPA and don't let the signing bonus demands dictate how they draft. IMHO Hosmer is going to drop simply because of his signing bonus demands (he is a Boras client), Alvarez might not be #1 but he'll be a top five pick based on his talent and the fact that he plays a premium position.

According to Jim Callis @ BA, the Astros are pining for Kyle Skipworth, C out of California (HS). After reading his scouting reports I can see why the Astros or any team for that matter would like him. Whatever they do, I hope the Astros pick some players who can reach their potential and help shore up the farm system.

Why the heck are we looking at drafting another HS catcher? Didn't we waste a first round pick a couple years ago on Max Sapp, who is barely hitting above .200 in single A ball and not showing ANY power at all? I'm in favor of drafting college players since there are less unknows about their true abilities

[htownbball]

Why the heck are we looking at drafting another HS catcher? Didn't we waste a first round pick a couple years ago on Max Sapp, who is barely hitting above .200 in single A ball and not showing ANY power at all? I'm in favor of drafting college players since there are less unknows about their true abilities

skipworth will probably go #6 to the marlins so dont worry. not all players are the same. just because you have one failed prospect, you dont pass over a guy because of past experiences.

sapp probably had the most power of any highschool player, so i can see why they drafted him. however, i pretty much pulled my hair out over the pick because i thought he'd be a 1S or 2nd rounder.

[DoitDickau]

Future Shock
The Draft's Dirty Dozen

by Kevin Goldstein
http://baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=7570

10. Houston Astros. Things have become a touch muddled here, as both Texas-based teams, picking back-to-back, were hot and heavy in their mutual interest in Fresno State righty Tanner Scheppers, who has since dropped out of first-round contention due to a stress fracture in his shoulder. Suddenly, rumors abound that Houston is interested in some of the college relievers who could potentially sign quickly and get the big leagues in a hurry, like Georgia’s Josh Fields, or Arizona's Daniel Schlereth. The latter is a stocky southpaw who opened many eyes last weekend when he came out sitting at 92-94 mph and touching 97; he's been rocketing up draft lists. Tenth overall might be too big a jump for him, but the rumor he’s in the mix is there.

[htownbball]

i think with so many picks early, we take the sure thing in yonder alonso and then take higher upside guys with our other picks.

my thinking is that in 3 years, we'll still be in win now mode and hopefully alonso will be ready by then and we could possibly trade him for a pitcher who could help us down the stretch.

[DoitDickau]

The draft is tomorrow. John Sickels says he is hearing a strong Dan Schlereth to Houston rumor. minorleagueball.com

Here is a draft profile of him. Lefty pitcher relief pitcher out of arizona U. projects as a middle reliever or a setup man.
http://www.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/events/draft_report/y2007/index.jsp?mc=schlereth

Im hoping this is a smoke screen. 10 picks are valuable and i'm not sure you want to use the first one you have in years in a reach to pick up a middle reliever.

[desihooper]

http://baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=7615

1. Tampa Bay Rays - Buster Posey, C
2. Pittsburgh Pirates - Tim Beckham, SS
3. Kansas City Royals - Pedro Alvarez, 3B
4. Baltimore Orioles - Brian Matusz, LHP
5. San Francisco Giants - Gordon Beckham, SS
6. Florida Marlins - Kyle Skipworth, C
7. Cincinnati Reds - Brett Lawrie, INF
8. Chicago White Sox - Justin Smoak, 1B
9. Washington Nationals - Eric Hosmer, 1B
10. Houston Astros

Houston is looking to make up for last year’s draft debacle, when they didn’t pick until the third round, and then were unable to sign their first two picks, leaving fifth-round selection Collin DeLome as their torch-holder for the year. They’ll have some excellent college players available to them, and while the system needs practically everything, they have no big-time power prospects in their system, and Alonso would change that. Signability could be an issue here, but it would be no different with selecting Crow.
Selection: Yonder Alonso, 1B, Miami

[BranJ17]

they are drafting Shooter Hunt from Tulane

[rrj_gamz]

I wish there was a can't miss pitching prospect that we'd be able to get...Just get the best athlete regardless of position...

[htownbball]

My top 10 Big Board

1. LHP Matusz
I think he's a bit safer and more polished than Crow even though Crow has better stuff

2. RHP Crow
Has great stuff and showed good command throughout his career.

3. SS G Beckham
He has a bat that could hit 15-25 homers at either SS or 2B. We lack talent at both positions.

4. 3B Alvarez
Probably has the best bat this year. Has a good arm, but it's negated by his below average range and hands. Might need to move to 1B.

5. SS T Beckham
Plenty of tools, but will probably take 4-5 years in the minors to develop.

6. C Posey
I think he compares favorably to Russell Martin and a younger Jason Kendall. Should hit .285+ with 15 homers and throw out 35+% of basestealers.

7. 1B Hosmer
He's higher on the list than the polished college 1B because he's more athletic and can throw 98mph. I think he could play LF for a few years before moving to 1B. Not to mention he's the best highschool bat this year. Suprisingly high strikeout rate for a highschooler is a bit concerning though.

8. 1B Alonso
I think he may be a safer pick than Smoak, but a little less upside. I expect him to be a 40 double, 30 home run type.

9. 1B Smoak
Smoak has power that is comparable to Alvarez and a better approach. However, he's not quite as natural a hitter as either Alvarez or Alonso. Could also tweak a few things in his setup. Could potentially be a 35-40 home run type and play gold glove defense.

10. C Skipworth
High upside guy who could be average defensively at catcher. At 6'4, he might have to move. A very good natural hitter. Could be comparable to Joe Mauer with the bat, but it's Mauer's overall polish and defensive prowess that made him the #1 pick and why Skipworth is a 5-10 pick.

[The Cat]

http://baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=7615

1. Tampa Bay Rays - Buster Posey, C
2. Pittsburgh Pirates - Tim Beckham, SS
3. Kansas City Royals - Pedro Alvarez, 3B
4. Baltimore Orioles - Brian Matusz, LHP
5. San Francisco Giants - Gordon Beckham, SS
6. Florida Marlins - Kyle Skipworth, C
7. Cincinnati Reds - Brett Lawrie, INF
8. Chicago White Sox - Justin Smoak, 1B
9. Washington Nationals - Eric Hosmer, 1B
10. Houston Astros

Houston is looking to make up for last year’s draft debacle, when they didn’t pick until the third round, and then were unable to sign their first two picks, leaving fifth-round selection Collin DeLome as their torch-holder for the year. They’ll have some excellent college players available to them, and while the system needs practically everything, they have no big-time power prospects in their system, and Alonso would change that. Signability could be an issue here, but it would be no different with selecting Crow.
Selection: Yonder Alonso, 1B, Miami

Not to be a homer, but if Crow's around at 10, I don't see how this team can not pick him. He's far too talented and proven to pass up, especially with the pitching situation in this organization.

[DoitDickau]

contract demands? for some reason i thought boris might be his agent. Cant find it online. would that even make a difference now?

[RocketFan007]

Not to be a homer, but if Crow's around at 10, I don't see how this team can not pick him. He's far too talented and proven to pass up, especially with the pitching situation in this organization.

Exactly, if Crow, or even less likely, Matusz, fall to 10, we won't hesitate to take them. If both are gone, which I expect, I'd still be happy with Friedrich out of Eastern Kentucky.

[htownbball]

Do you take the risky need with Friedrich or Shooter Hunt, or do you go for the safer option but more of a luxory pick in a polished power hitter in Smoak or Alonso?

Me, I go for Smoak/Alonso. I think Smoak and Alonso both will be quicker to the majors and will adjust easier to facing major league competition. With Friedrich and Hunt, both have ALOT of questions.

Friedrich hasn't faced very good competition, and even at that level, his command has been below average to average at best. How will he adjust to better competition in the minors, and then how will he adjust to facing major league competition? His stuff is good, not great as well, usually throwing 90-91 with a below average changeup but a good curveball. There's alot of similarities between him and Brian Bogusevic IMO, from stuff to command, and that didn't turn out so well.

As for Hunt, he's dominated pretty good competition, but his command is awful. It might be due to his overall approach to pitching, but he really needs to get with a pitching coach. He's shown he can rack up strikeouts, and he doesnt allow many hits, so what's the deal? He's thrown alot of wild pitches and he's hit a decent amount of hitters. He's got a drop and drive delivery with some effort, and he could clean up his mechanics a bit. However, I wouldn't be surprised if he ends up having a better career than Aaron Crow if he ever gets his command right.

If I HAD to choose a pitcher, it would be Hunt over Friedrich. I just think he's a little more proven even with his command issues. And even with the command issues, he's shown he can be dominant at times.

[Raven Lunatic]

When does it start? Have some picks been made already?

Edit: Nevermind, just saw on ESPN that they won't start until noon central.

[DoitDickau]

In some last minute draft news it appears that the Rays have decided on hs ss Tim Beckham. Meaning the top 3 appears to go Beckham, Alvarez to Pittsburgh, and Hosmer to KC. Cincy also looks like they'll take G. Beckham if he falls them at 7. Here are some last minute mock drafts

BA http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/draft/mock-draft/2008/266271.html

"0. HOUSTON. The Astros initially seemed to be on college starting pitchers, but that crop dried up when Fresno State's Tanner Scheppers hurt his shoulder and Tulane's Shooter Hunt went into a late-season slump. Houston has been hoping for Skipworth and now it seems like he will get past the first nine picks. The Astros are the first team that could pull the trigger on Lawrie, with Eastern Kentucky lefthander Christian Friedrich the best college starter if they go in that direction.

Projected Pick: KYLE SKIPWORTH, c, Patriot HS, Rubidoux, Calif."

Saberscouting: http://www.saberscouting.com/2008/06/04/draftweekmock1/

"#10 - Houston Astros

Frankie’s Projection: Shooter Hunt, RHP, Tulane

Kiley’s Projection: Aaron Crow, RHP, Missouri

Frankie: The Astros are looking far and wide for a big arm to draft and Hunt seems like the perfect match. Not only is he a big, power arm but he could also move fairly quickly up the ladder. Hunt should be on the table for them to grab if they want him or they could go with the likes of someone like Gerrit Cole or Aaron Crow if he falls to them.

Kiley: And, in my scenario, Aaron Crow falls to them. He’s slipped some with reported high bonus demands and stuff that faded down the stretch, but he’s a potential frontline arm, despite some funk in the arm action. The Astros could go bat here with Yonder Alonso, opt for a power college arm alternative in Shooter Hunt, or maybe pop Boras-advised, polarizing prep hurler Gerrit Cole."

jonathon mayo at mlb.com has them passing on Crow for Brett Lawrie: http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20080604&content_id=2837388&vkey=draft2008&fext=.jsp

"10. Houston Astros: Brett Lawrie, C/3B, Brookswood SS, Langley, B.C.
It's time to take a shot with a wild card. Every draft has a top 10 surprise and there was some buzz that Lawrie would be it here. Word was the Astros really wanted Skipworth, but with him gone, they went for what could be the next best impact bat, and one that could also play behind the plate. College pitching is still an option, with Andrew Cashner being the best option
Last projection: Justin Smoak"


John Sickels: http://www.minorleagueball.com/

"So if the Hosmer/Royals rumors pan out, that would certainly alter the rest of the first round. Would it look something like this then?

HOSMER TO ROYALS SCENARIO
1) Rays: Tim Beckham, SS, Georgia HS: No change
2) Pirates: Pedro Alvarez, 3B, Vanderbilt: No change
3) Royals: Eric Hosmer, 1B, Florida HS: Will Royals meet Boras asking price?
4) Orioles: Brian Matusz, LHP, San Diego: I still think this is a good fit
5) Giants: Buster Posey: C, Florida State: Would be easier to fit into the lineup long-term than Smoak.
6) Marlins: Kyle Skipworth, C, California HS: No change
7) Reds: Aaron Crow, RHP, Missouri: No Change.
8) White Sox: Gordon Beckham, SS, Georgia: No Change.
9) Nationals: Justin Smoak, 1B, South Carolina: Someone has to fall. Could it be Smoak?
10) Astros: Christian Friedrich, LHP, Eastern Kentucky: no change. Late rumor has Dan Schlereth going here.
11) Rangers: Aaron Hicks, RHP-OF, California HS: Tools and arm strength? Would the Rangers do this?

Then things could pan out as stated before. If Schlereth does go 10, that would shake a lot of things up."

If either Smoak, Skipworth, or Crow falls to the Astros at 10 I would be happy and hope they would take them.

[DoitDickau]

When does it start? Have some picks been made already?

Edit: Nevermind, just saw on ESPN that they won't start until noon central.

I think the draft actually starts at 1pm central and is aired on espn2

[Oski2005]

I was listening to Richard Justice inteviewing a writer from Baseball America a while back and they were talking about possibilities for the Astros. Did anybody else listen to that? I'm trying to remember a guy they mentioned who is supposed to be top of the draft talent but might fall to the Astros (and probably past) due to signability. Does anybody know who they were talking about?

[DoitDickau]

I was listening to Richard Justice inteviewing a writer from Baseball America a while back and they were talking about possibilities for the Astros. Did anybody else listen to that? I'm trying to remember a guy they mentioned who is supposed to be top of the draft talent but might fall to the Astros (and probably past) due to signability. Does anybody know who they were talking about?


Didn't hear it, but i'd imagine it's Aaron Crow out of Missouri. He was the best college pitcher in the country the first half of the season and was being considered for the #1 overall spot. But poor performance down the stretch, mechanical concerns and rumored bonus demands (10million) has caused his stock to down a little. I've seen a lot of mocks the last few days that have him falling to 10.

Smoak and Skipworth are probably the other prime possibilities to fall out of the top 9.

[desihooper]

In some last minute draft news it appears that the Rays have decided on hs ss Tim Beckham. Meaning the top 3 appears to go Beckham, Alvarez to Pittsburgh, and Hosmer to KC. Cincy also looks like they'll take G. Beckham if he falls them at 7.


John Sickels: http://www.minorleagueball.com/

"So if the Hosmer/Royals rumors pan out, that would certainly alter the rest of the first round. Would it look something like this then?

HOSMER TO ROYALS SCENARIO
1) Rays: Tim Beckham, SS, Georgia HS: No change
2) Pirates: Pedro Alvarez, 3B, Vanderbilt: No change
3) Royals: Eric Hosmer, 1B, Florida HS: Will Royals meet Boras asking price?
4) Orioles: Brian Matusz, LHP, San Diego: I still think this is a good fit
5) Giants: Buster Posey: C, Florida State: Would be easier to fit into the lineup long-term than Smoak.
6) Marlins: Kyle Skipworth, C, California HS: No change
7) Reds: Aaron Crow, RHP, Missouri: No Change.
8) White Sox: Gordon Beckham, SS, Georgia: No Change.
9) Nationals: Justin Smoak, 1B, South Carolina: Someone has to fall. Could it be Smoak?
10) Astros: Christian Friedrich, LHP, Eastern Kentucky: no change. Late rumor has Dan Schlereth going here.
11) Rangers: Aaron Hicks, RHP-OF, California HS: Tools and arm strength? Would the Rangers do this?

Then things could pan out as stated before. If Schlereth does go 10, that would shake a lot of things up."

If either Smoak, Skipworth, or Crow falls to the Astros at 10 I would be happy and hope they would take them.

So far, so good (see bold above)

[Oski2005]

Is the draft going slow because it's on TV? I've heard that before this year, it was rapid fire.

[DoitDickau]

first surprise in the draft with Alonso going to cincy at 7. Now one of either crow, smoak or beckham falls to the Astros!

[htownbball]

looks like smoak is bpa

[DOMINATOR]

castro? what

[htownbball]

jason castro...thats crap

[cardpire]

can we bring him up tonight?

[noscrusir]

Astos taking a play from the Texans playbook and draft some unknown commodity. Let's hope the Jason Castros/Duane Browns of the world turn out to be good picks.

[DoitDickau]

Seems to be a bit of a reach based on system need and not best player available.

[Ottomaton]

Left handed power hitting catcher is always a rare commodity.

[Blake]

Keith Law of ESPN.com's response:

Castro didn't get to catch last year in the Cape Cod League because the team had Posey. Castro was expected to go in the second half of the first round. He's a contact hitter; he will not hit for a lot of power. He's an average regular catcher in the big leagues. But I don't see him as a star. By the way, the next best college catcher in the draft is well below Castro.

[DoitDickau]

http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/events/draft/y2008/reports.jsp?content=castro


His profile

Hitting Ability: A little heavy on his front side, he can be vulnerable to the changeup; sometimes Castro tries too hard to be the guy in the lineup. He does have the ability to drive the ball from the left side of the plate.

Power: He's got average power now with the chance to be plus down the road. He's got opposite-field power with good loft and backspin.

Running Speed: He's got more speed than most catchers.

Base running: He does have the ability to take the extra base or even steal a bag or two.

Arm Strength: He's an got average arm, but keeps improving his pop times to second base.

Fielding: He's worked hard on his craft and does a terrific job framing the ball.

Range: He's good at blocking pitches in the dirt.

Physical Description: Castro is a tall, well-proportioned backstop with a long body.

Medical Update: Healthy now, but an arm issue over the summer kept him from catching regularly.

Strengths: With legitimate power, some hittability and an improving set of defensive skills, he's got the chance to be a good all-around catcher.
Weaknesses: He has trouble with offspeed stuff.

Summary: College catchers, especially those who hit left-handed, are always in demand, and Castro has used a strong Cape League season to put himself in position to be one of the first backstops taken. He's got legit power and a good set of defensive skills. He might not be the first college catcher to go off the board, but he likely won't have to wait long.

[htownbball]

Jason Castro, Catcher, Stanford University

2008
.372 12 home runs, 63 rbi
16 doubles
23BB 37K
253 AB's

His stock jumped up in the cape this past summer and he built on that with a solid season. Before that summer, he didn't really have much of a track record.

Might be a safe pick that doesn't cost too much. Hopefully we take some arms in the supplemental or 2nd round. This pick does piss me off though.

[Roxfan73]

I'm guessing his ceiling may be - AJ Pierzynski?

[Raven Lunatic]

Either they really believed Castro was the BPA or the current regime does not have much confidence in Towles to get out of his current slump.

[H-Town Info]

can we sign and send him to houston tomorrow

[moestavern19]

What an epic fail.

Smoak is the best player since Babe Ruth.

[htownbball]

Jason Castro

2007 Cape Cod League Stats
.341 4HR 24RBI
7 doubles
22BB 29K
129AB

[DoitDickau]

Here is where Castro was rated on some national scouts draft boards:

http://www.minorleagueball.com/2008/5/17/519689/john-s-2008-draft-board-as#comments
"Here is a look at my current draft board. THIS IS NOT A PREDICTION OR PROJECTION OF THE FIRST ROUND. This is my current personal opinion of these players. This will continue to change as we approach draft day and some players are already ranked differently compared to the lists I've been doing this past week.

#30) Jason Castro, C, Stanford: I'm not 100% convinced about the bat yet."


http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/draft

Keith Law's top 75

#18: Jason Castro


Baseball America draft tracker

"#21. Jason Castro c Stanford 27 21
Stanford's most consistent hitter profiles as a similar player to rangy A.J. Pierzynski, with a sunnier disposition."

[htownbball]

I'm guessing his ceiling may be - AJ Pierzynski?

possibly. id say something around 10-15 hr and a .275 average with the possibility to hit 20 homers some day.

his defense is quite good. threw out 40.6% of base runners.

[DoitDickau]

Espn's scouting report on Castro

"Summary: Castro finished second in the Cape Cod League in batting average to Conor Gillaspie, but didn't get to catch that often because he was behind Buster Posey. This spring, he's established his catching bona fides and is lined up to be the second college backstop taken, probably in the back of the first round but perhaps in the top 20 picks. Castro has a simple, contact-oriented swing, with a very slight bat wrap but good overall bat speed and plate coverage. His swing plane is pretty flat, and he shifts his weight forward before contact, resulting in below-average power. Behind the plate, he's solid-average in all respects: hands, arm, plate-blocking. His upside is as an average regular catcher in the big leagues, unless he develops more power. He has a very high probability of making it as a backup."


Did the astros just used a top ten pick (when Smoak a top talent was still available) on a player who projects as a big-league backup? What happened to all the talk about taking the "best player available"?

[DOMINATOR]

4 catchers taken in first 16 picks... interesting.

[white lightning]

I don't understand this at all. Don't we already have a young catcher and spend our top pick a couple of years ago for a young catcher? With a guy like Smoak on the board you go with Castro? I think we'll end up regretting this.

[juicystream]

When your owner likes to pay only slot money based on what Bud Selig recommends, you are rarely going to take the BPA.

[clutch citizen]

Nickname is already given: Jason "The American Idol" Castro

Why does it feel like every Houston team draft picks are reaches. Hopefully this Astros regime knows what it's doing.

[clutch citizen]

I don't understand this at all. Don't we already have a young catcher and spend our top pick a couple of years ago for a young catcher? With a guy like Smoak on the board you go with Castro? I think we'll end up regretting this.

Not only that, he sounds like another Humberto Quintero

[DOMINATOR]

anyone laugh at how Bud Selig announces the picks? he looks so mad and stern. tool needs to lighten up.

[Raven Lunatic]

Nickname is already given: Jason "The American Idol" Castro

Why does it feel like every Houston team draft picks are reaches. Hopefully this Astros regime knows what it's doing.

Well, luckily Ed Wade has a pretty good track record in the draft.

[jev5555]

There's no reason we should be drafting a catcher...we got Sapp and Clemens at the damn position. If you miss on those 2 then your evalutation department sux a$$. This is a dumb pick. What is our infatuation with players from Cali...I'm tired of Texas players going elsewhere and blossoming...Crawford, Bruce, Kazmir, Beckett...etc. This pick angers me.

[clutch citizen]

Well, luckily Ed Wade has a pretty good track record in the draft.

But he never had to deal with the "McLane Rules"

[The Cat]

There's no reason we should be drafting a catcher...we got Sapp and Clemens at the damn position. If you miss on those 2 then your evalutation department sux a$$. This is a dumb pick. What is our infatuation with players from Cali...I'm tired of Texas players going elsewhere and blossoming...Crawford, Bruce, Kazmir, Beckett...etc. This pick angers me.

This is so ridiculous I don't even know where to begin.

Both Sapp and Clemens have performed poorly. Furthermore, Clemens was an eighth round draft pick -- hardly the level at which you automatically expect an MLB starter. So, you're upset that an eighth-round pick isn't a lock to be a starter? And Sapp, by all accounts, has been a bust. So, is it your opinion they should sit in denial?

Also, in case you missed it, there's an entirely new scouting department in place under Ed Wade. So, there's absolutely, positively zero correlation between prior drafts and this one. Finally, it's the freakin' MLB draft, not the NFL. Top 10 picks bust all the time. A majority of first rounders usually bust. Players drafted in the 40th round and later routinely excel. There is no exact science. To a large extent, it's luck. Sure, there's some scouting -- but it's very random, and to judge an entire scouting department by two picks -- one of them being an eighth rounder -- is one of the most ridiculous things I've ever heard.

On your last point, think about how many colleges and high schools are in Texas. Then, think about how many rounds are in the MLB draft (in the 40s). There are hundreds of Texas players in the draft every year. The Astros don't have hundreds of picks. It's impossible to keep them all. Furthermore, of the four you listed -- three of them (Bruce, Kazmir, Beckett) were taken well before the Astros were able to pick. What should the Astros have done? Should they have planted a spy in the war rooms of every MLB team and put a gun to each general manager's head and threaten to pull the trigger if those teams take their guy? Because that's the only way the Astros even sniff Bruce, Beckett or Kazmir.

In conclusion, this isn't 1940. You know, they have these things called televisions. They have this thing called the internet, too. It's not all about taking the "hometown kid" because you know him better. No, professional teams know players from Alaska just as much as they know kids who live a block down the street. Hometown makes no difference. It's a much more complicated process than picking a rec league softball team.

Yes, there are players from Texas that have succeeded. Guess what? There are also plenty of players from California that have succeeded, as well as every other state in the country. If you don't like the pick, that's fine, but the reasons you cited are just absurd.

[DoitDickau]

I don't understand this at all. Don't we already have a young catcher and spend our top pick a couple of years ago for a young catcher? With a guy like Smoak on the board you go with Castro? I think we'll end up regretting this.


Yes but they've been pretty much complete busts.

In 2005 the Astros used their 2nd round pick on a hs catcher Hendrique, who performed so badly he is now out of the system.

2006 they used their first round pick on hs catcher Max Sapp (passing on C Hank Conger, now a top prospect, who was regarded more highly regarded nationally). Sapp has hit 220 in his minor league career with zero power and has yet to get above low A.

2007: no picks or signee in for 4 rounds


I guess if at first and second you fail, try, try again.

[Roxfan73]

possibly. id say something around 10-15 hr and a .275 average with the possibility to hit 20 homers some day.

his defense is quite good. threw out 40.6% of base runners.

I would be ECSTATIC to have production like that from the 2.

[DoitDickau]

Because this is the major league draft and even the most mature picks will likely take 2-3 years to even reach the big leagues, it just doesn't make sense to reach with a top 10 pick to draft for need. Especially in the Astros case when they basically need help in every single organizational area. Top ten picks aren't sure things, but they are better bets than late first round picks and even better bets than picks later in the draft.

Who knows, maybe Castro was really ahead of Smoak and others as BPA on their draft board, but they would probably be alone in that regard. The simplest explaination is with Berkman at first and Lee w/ his 100 million dollar contract and Pence in the corner of, the Astros didn't want to make a logjam there so they reached for a position of need. Which in my mind would be a horrible rationale for the pick considering you can trade prospects or mlb players, that Berkman is 32 and the Astros have no firstbase prospects in their system. It could have also been a signability pick since the Astros aren't going to go over slot and it is likely that any player actually worth the #10 pick would demand over slot money. probably a combination of money and need.

[juicystream]

I would be ECSTATIC to have production like that from the 2.

At this point I'd be happy if our catcher was hitting .200 :(

[htownbball]

hopefully we can get either shooter hunt or jake odorizzi in the supplemental

[RocketFan007]

Smoak is pretty damn close to being a major league 1B now, hence why we didn't draft him. He's also poor defensively and really slow, meaning he's likely a AL DH. We already have one of the best 1B in baseball. That combined with the rarity of having a catcher who can actually hit, put Castro ahead of Smoak for the Astros.

[Refman]

Everybody also needs to keep in mind that the Astros have four of the first 88 selections. There will be more presents under the proverbial tree.

[rrj_gamz]

Nickname is already given: Jason "The American Idol" Castro

Why does it feel like every Houston team draft picks are reaches. Hopefully this Astros regime knows what it's doing.

Word...I hope I get proven wrong...But we'll see in a couple of years....

[Oski2005]

Smoak is pretty damn close to being a major league 1B now, hence why we didn't draft him. He's also poor defensively and really slow, meaning he's likely a AL DH. We already have one of the best 1B in baseball. That combined with the rarity of having a catcher who can actually hit, put Castro ahead of Smoak for the Astros.


Where did you read that he's poor defensively? I've read that he's got Gold Glove potential.

Frankly, even with Towles struggling and the lack of good catchers in the system, I think you wait on drafting a catcher that high right now. It's like they took him not because of how good he is, but because of how bad the next best catcher is. If Smoak really is a Mark Texiera type, make room for him, trade Lee for whatever, or use Smoak as a trade chip for a starter. That's my non-expert opinion.

[DoitDickau]

Smoak is pretty damn close to being a major league 1B now, hence why we didn't draft him. He's also poor defensively and really slow, meaning he's likely a AL DH. We already have one of the best 1B in baseball. That combined with the rarity of having a catcher who can actually hit, put Castro ahead of Smoak for the Astros.


According to a lot scouts he projects as a plus defender at 1st base even "gold gold caliber". He probably won't have to move

[WhoMikeJames]

Someone explain to me why the Astros took the 3rd best Catcher in the Draft at pick 10...? (Weren't there a lot better players available?)

[htownbball]

Smoak is pretty damn close to being a major league 1B now, hence why we didn't draft him. He's also poor defensively and really slow, meaning he's likely a AL DH. We already have one of the best 1B in baseball. That combined with the rarity of having a catcher who can actually hit, put Castro ahead of Smoak for the Astros.

dude...smoak is as smooth as berkman is at 1B so i dont know where you read that he was poor defensively

[cardpire]

Someone explain to me why the Astros took the 3rd best Catcher in the Draft at pick 10...?


because the best and 2nd best were taken? :confused:

[RocketFan007]

Where did you read that he's poor defensively? I've read that he's got Gold Glove potential.

Frankly, even with Towles struggling and the lack of good catchers in the system, I think you wait on drafting a catcher that high right now. It's like they took him not because of how good he is, but because of how bad the next best catcher is. If Smoak really is a Mark Texiera type, make room for him, trade Lee for whatever, or use Smoak as a trade chip for a starter. That's my non-expert opinion.

I've read in a few places that he's very slow, and has poor range, even for a 1B, so not sure about the Gold Glove stuff.

How would trading Lee, a LF, make room for a 1B? Berkman isn't going back to the OF, period. Not to mention, it's going to be pretty damn tough to dump Lee's back loaded contract.

[Refman]

Someone explain to me why the Astros took the 3rd best Catcher in the Draft at pick 10...? (Weren't there a lot better players available?)
It's a crap shoot. Unlike football, where at the draft you more or less know who will be an impact player, in baseball you have no clue. If you ask 10 different experts who they think the top prospects in the draft are...you'll get 10 different answers.

It could be that our scouts liked what Castro brings to the table.

As somebody else pointed out, Wade has a very strong track record when it comes to the draft.

[Oski2005]

I've read in a few places that he's very slow, and has poor range, even for a 1B, so not sure about the Gold Glove stuff.

How would trading Lee, a LF, make room for a 1B? Berkman isn't going back to the OF, period. Not to mention, it's going to be pretty damn tough to dump Lee's back loaded contract.


I thought it was implied that I meant putting Smoak in LF plus I brought up the possibility of Smoak as a trade chip. But it doesn't matter now, what's done is done.

[cardpire]

i'm feeling tanner scheppers

[cardpire]

we just took Jordan Lyles, a RHP out of high school.

somebody post his scouting report for us.

[WhoMikeJames]

I can't find anything on Jordan Lyles.

EDIT:

RHP Jordan Lyles (6-5, 200) of Hartsville committed to USC and will sign this spring. Lyles was 6-2 this season and also batted .420. He also made the Shrine Bowl team as a receiver in football after catching 81 passes.

and Here is his Rivals page for Football. Nothing on Baseball.

http://rivals100.rivals.com/viewprospect.asp?pr_key=72884&sport=1

[DoitDickau]

i'm feeling tanner scheppers

Didn't Scheppers shoulder injury turn out to be labrum related? If so I don't see being drafted very high at all

[RocketFan007]

I thought it was implied that I meant putting Smoak in LF plus I brought up the possibility of Smoak as a trade chip. But it doesn't matter now, what's done is done.

Smoak can't play LF, he's way too slow, so even that wouldn't work.

[DoitDickau]

Smoak can't play LF, he's way too slow, so even that wouldn't work.

Then at that point you either trade a 34-35 Berkman or Smoak for your organizational needs.

[htownbball]

Jordan Lyles

Righthander Jordan Lyles leads the high school ranks. Blessed with a clean and easy delivery, Lyles offers a fastball in the upper 80s and can break 90 mph on occasion. He also has room in his 6-foot-4 frame to add strength and velocity. Lyles also throws a curveball and changeup and can command all three pitches. A three-sport star in high school, Lyles is athletic on the mound. He is committed to South Carolina

[DoitDickau]

Tim Melville really has fallen. A couple months ago there was talk of him in the top ten. He's still available going into the 2nd round.

[DOMINATOR]

this "african american pushing to play baseball" by espn is really annoying.

[DoitDickau]

Baseball American on Jordan Lyles
http://www.baseballamerica.com/blog/draft/?p=328
Sandwich Shocker

Posted Jun. 5, 2008 4:27 pm by John Manuel
Filed under: Draft Day

The Astros are the Astros, and after taking Jason Castro at 10 overall—considered a reach for a late-first-round talent—they went off the board with their supplemental pick, taking 6-foot-4 Jordan Lyles. He didn’t make BA’s Top 200, and ranked seventh in the state of South Carolina, tops among prep players. Here’s Matt Blood’s scouting report on Lyles:

Righthander Jordan Lyles leads the high school ranks. Blessed with a clean and easy delivery, Lyles offers a fastball in the upper 80s and can break 90 mph on occasion. He also has room in his 6-foot-4 frame to add strength and velocity. Lyles also throws a curveball and changeup and can command all three pitches. A three-sport star in high school, Lyles is athletic on the mound. He is committed to South Carolina.

[Oski2005]

Smoak can't play LF, he's way too slow, so even that wouldn't work.

Then at that point you either trade a 34-35 Berkman or Smoak for your organizational needs.

I didn't want to say it because I love Berkman, but yeah. Also, if Lee can play LF, why can't Smoak?

Again, if they couldn't make room for him on the Big League roster, then he could have been useful in a trade down the line. He was the BPA and when your system is as depleted as ours, you take the best guys.

[htownbball]

Tim Melville really has fallen. A couple months ago there was talk of him in the top ten. He's still available going into the 2nd round.

he had a poor season and had bonus demands of 10-15 pick money

ross seaton is still on the board. we better snag him in the 2nd.

[Raven Lunatic]

Wow. Well, I sort of respect Wade for having the balls to really take some chances with the Astros draft, considering how tepid our minor league system is right now, he can't afford to have some really high profile busts because Astros fans will be clamoring for his head. But he still went for what he thought would be best, apparently.

[RocketFan007]

I didn't want to say it because I love Berkman, but yeah. Also, if Lee can play LF, why can't Smoak?

Again, if they couldn't make room for him on the Big League roster, then he could have been useful in a trade down the line. He was the BPA and when your system is as depleted as ours, you take the best guys.

Lee isn't slow, he's not great defensively, and at times is lazy, but he's not slow. As I mentioned earlier Smoak has poor range at 1B, so he's not an option in the OF.

Berkman will never be traded as long as Drayton is here, forget about it.

And, Smoak wasn't the BPA according to the Astros, they had Castro rated higher, so they took him. A catcher who can hit is a rarity, that's what they found it Castro.

[Baqui99]

I think we have an Oakland A's type budget for draft picks. These picks reak of Billy Beane-esque Moneyball tactics.

[Ottomaton]

Baseball American on Jordan Lyles
http://www.baseballamerica.com/blog/draft/?p=328
Sandwich Shocker


I'm not trying to be an @ss, but the magazine is called Baseball America not Baseball American. That's America, not American. No 'n' on the end.

It is like fingernails on the chalkboard for me every time I see you write it wrong.

[DoitDickau]

I'm not trying to be an @ss, but the magazine is called Baseball America not Baseball American. That's America, not American. No 'n' on the end.

It is like fingernails on the chalkboard for me every time I see you write it wrong.

sorry dude. I'll be more careful proofreading next time.

[htownbball]

who will be more productive in the majors?

justin smoak?

or jason castro?

hmmmmmm...guy who has averaged 22 homers in college and was a high profile prospect out of highschool...or guy who has been a 1 year wonder who has a career high of 12...maybe they had castro rated higher because of his position, but you cannot say he'll out produce smoak in the majors

[DoitDickau]

who will be more productive in the majors?

justin smoak?

or jason castro?

hmmmmmm...guy who has averaged 22 homers in college and was a high profile prospect out of highschool...or guy who has been a 1 year wonder who has a career high of 12...maybe they had castro rated higher because of his position, but you cannot say he'll out produce smoak in the majors


There is enough room for growth that you can't say that for sure. If Castro really is the guy that slugged over .600 this year and in cap cod, and not the guy that slugged 225 his sophomore year, then he could be a decent regular at the ml level. I'd imagine most people/scouts think Smoak is more likely to be the better big league player, but I guess just trust that the Astros know something that other people don't.

[No Worries]

who will be more productive in the majors?
I suspect that is a less 50% chance for either of them to be MLB starters.

[DoitDickau]

Joseph Austin is the 2nd round pick HS cf

[rocks_fan]

According to 790 they talked to Lyles and he's agreed on and signed a contract and will report to.... Greenville I think they said. Well, if he fell off draft boards because of his commitment to S.C. scared people off then it might be a great pick. If the kid does manage to gain some bulk and strength and add 4-5 MPH to his FB they might have something going.

Two high schoolers in the first three picks. Wade must be feeling confident that he can sign them. That and he's building for the relative distant (4-5 years) future.

[Ottomaton]

A third lefthanded bat. Is that the theme?

[rocks_fan]

3rd round pick is Charles Davidson, OF, Milton (GA) H.S. 6'5", 222. L/R

Huge outfielder, and another high schooler.

[RocketFan007]

3rd round pick is Charles Davidson, OF, Milton (GA) H.S. 6'5", 222. L/R

Huge outfielder, and another high schooler.

Power bat, 12 homers in 70 at bats. With his size, maybe a move to 1B is in the future?

[DoitDickau]

Ross Seaton is the 3rd round supp pick

http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/events/draft/y2008/reports.jsp?content=seaton


Fastball: Seaton throws his fastball up to 94 mph.

Fastball movement: He's got pretty good sink with his two-seamer.

Sliders: He's got a good slider that he threw up to 85 mph.

Changeup: He's got one that should be average in the future. Right now, he doesn't use it at the right times, so it's almost counter-productive.

Control: He's got pretty good command, especially for a high schooler, and doesn't hurt himself with walks.

Poise: He's very good on the mound and is a very intelligent kid.

Physical Description: Seaton is a big, athletic and strong right-hander who's also a pretty good hitting prospect.

Medical Update: Healthy.


Strengths: Strong and athletic, he's got the chance to have three at least average offerings.

Weaknesses: The changeup is behind the other pitches; a strong commitment to Tulane might make him tough to sign.

Summary: Texas isn't providing the usual supply of fireballing high school arms, but Seaton is trying to represent as best he can. With a good fastball and slider, along with a changeup that should work well in the future, he's fairly polished for a high schooler. A good athlete, he's drawn some interest as a hitter as well and if the position or the bonus isn't right, the bright right-hander could head to Tulane as a two-way player.

[RocketFan007]

It will be interesting to see if we can sign Seaton. He's dropped due to signability issues.

[DoitDickau]

I like taking a risk with Seaton. 1st round talent that dropped due to signability concerns. He's a hometown kid, so maybe the Astros will have a better than average chance at signing him.

[DoitDickau]

Thomas Steele 4th round U of Arizona cf

[rocks_fan]

As a Second Baptist alum, I say Drayton open up the wallet and sign the kid, even if it means out of slot money. Easy for me to say though.

[RocketFan007]

Thomas Steele 4th round U of Arizona cf

Stats from the season:

.312, .393, .567, 10 homers, 24/26 SB

[rocks_fan]

David Duncan, 6'9"(!!) 230 lb. lefty out of Georgia Tech. He's a big 'un. Only a junior though, so signability possibly a question mark?

[RocketFan007]

Duncan's stats this season:

15 GS, 7-3, 4.48 ERA, 96.1 IP, 99 H, 32 BB, 74 K

[rocks_fan]

Duncan's stats this season:

15 GS, 7-3, 4.48 ERA, 96.1 IP, 99 H, 32 BB, 74 K

Are you bouncing back and forth between a certain Astros fan site and this one like I am? Just curious.

[RocketFan007]

Are you bouncing back and forth between a certain Astros fan site and this one like I am? Just curious.

I was thinking the same thing about you.

[htownbball]

HELL YEA WE GOT FRIGGAN ROSS SEATON! top texas prospect IMO. he's tall and projectable and he's got a 90-93mph fastball with room for more. good pickup. he was being talked about as high as the supplemental. great pick houston! just need to sign him.

[htownbball]

3rd round supplemental signing bonus is only around 400k. its gonna take at least $750k to sign seaton IMO.

[cardpire]

do we get the pick replaced again next year if we can't sign him?

[Nashvegas]

Power bat, 12 homers in 70 at bats. With his size, maybe a move to 1B is in the future?

It looks like he goes by Chase Davidson, not Charles. I googled him and it looks like he plays 1B

[RocketFan007]

do we get the pick replaced again next year if we can't sign him?

Since he was taken with a supplemental pick, no.

[rikesh316]

Lindbloom who the Astros drafted 3 years ago in the third round went to the Dodgers in the supplemental first round.

[htownbball]

Here's my analysis of our draft

1. C Jason Castro, Stanford
Sigh...it's not like he's a bad player, it's just that he isn't a top 10 value or top 10 talent. He had 1 good summer and 1 good spring, so there really isn't much of a track record there. He's a good overall defender. I think his ceiling is a solid average catcher and hitter with potential to be a #6 hitter.

1S. RHP Jordan Lyles, Hartsville HS, South Carolina
A great athlete who also signed as a WR at South Carolina. Tall and lanky with projectable growth. Great mechanics and an easy delivery. Sits at 86-88 right now, but as he grows into his body, should be able to sit at 90-93mph. I like his potential, but I don't think he provides much value at pick 38. He could turn into a very good player, but we could have gotten him in the 2nd round IMO.

2. CF Jay Austin, North Atlanta HS, Georgia
A small but speedy lefty hitter. Has 3 very good tools in his speed, defense, and ability to make contact. He has an average arm that doesnt project much because of his size. Power doesn't project much, but he could have some pop down the road. Suprisingly, he hit 15 homers in highschool, but I just don't see him hitting for much power at the next level due to his size and his swing.

3. 1B Chase Davidson, Milton HS, Georgia
I like this pick. Davidson has monster power potential and a smooth swing. Could use some polishing up here and there, but I think he definitely has major league potential.

3S. RHP Ross Seaton, Second Baptist HS, Texas
Homerun! Arguably the top pitcher in Texas this year, he fell due to a strong committment to Tulane. Sits at 89-92mph and touches 94mph every now and then with room to add more velocity as he grows into his lanky frame. Solid command for a highschooler with a good slider and potential to throw an average changeup.

4. CF TJ Steele, Arizona
Hate this pick. When you draft guys in the top 5 rounds, or draft anybody for that matter, you have to ask yourself, "will this player have a legit chance to make it to the big leagues, and will he able to contribute in the bigs?" The answer to both those for Steele is no. He strikes out wayyyy too much and walks hardly at all. That doesn't bode well for him, as that is a very strong indicator of future success. People just dont learn how to cut down on their strikeouts or make more consistent contact. He has raw power and he's got good speed, but I have my doubts as to whether this guy will ever make it out of the minors.

5. LHP David Duncan, Georgia Tech
An intriguing pick. He has some projectability left in his body at 6'9 230lbs. If he can add some strength, he could perhaps add some velocity. Currently he sits 87-89mph with a pretty big curveball. He does have some pitchibility and doesn't walk too many guys. However, he doesn't make batters miss and he allows a fair amount of hits and doesn't strikeout many batters. His ceiling is as a 4th or 5th starter.

6. CF Jack Shuck, OSU
A speedy centerfielder with absolutely no power. Doesn't project much more than a utility guy. He actually pitches as well, but I don't see him as a pitcher. I don't like this pick either as he provides no upside and doesnt project to contribute everyday. He's a singles hitter who doesnt walk or strikeout.

Honestly not a terrible draft. Castro could turn out to be a safe pick, and hopefully he could build on his past few seasons. I like all of our highschool picks as they all offer tremendous upside. Our college picks seem to be filler picks to fill roster spots on our minor league rosters.

On day 2 of the draft, two players I would love to see us take are Cole St. Clair from Rice and Jordan Danks from Texas. St. Clair's stock has fallen the past 2 years due to injuries and inconsistency, but he still offers alot of upside as a potential deadly lefty reliever. He's got a deceptive delivery and a fastball at 88-92mph with a good curveball. Danks hasn't fulfilled the vast potential that many saw in him as a highschooler, but if he could tap into his inner power potential, he could be a great pick. He's got 3 above average tools in his speed, defense, and arm strength. His power potential is there since he hits quite a few doubles. He needs to add strength to his frame and maybe those doubles turn into homers. His ability to make contact and keep his strikeouts down are also a question since he's 6'5 and his swing gets a little long at times. However, he has a good eye and draws alot of walks to offset the strikeouts.

[CometsWin]

Players drafted in the 40th round and later routinely excel.


Ha, quick... name five.


In conclusion, this isn't 1940. You know, they have these things called televisions. They have this thing called the internet, too. It's not all about taking the "hometown kid" because you know him better. No, professional teams know players from Alaska just as much as they know kids who live a block down the street. Hometown makes no difference.


Teams quite obviously should know local area players better than kids from Alaska. Hometown should make a difference and in particular in our case because Houston produces more talent than Alaska. Ed Wade can not only see any Houston high schooler any day of the week, he can meet their families and coaches, friends, and so on and also get a feel for the competition they face and the quality of baseball in that district. When's he making that trip to Alaska to watch all their kids and get all of that info? Uh... good point man.

[Refman]

Ha, quick... name five.
I can't name 5 in the 40th round off the top of my head, but Mike Piazza had a really nice career out of the 62nd round. He was the last freaking player selected.

[htownbball]

Ha, quick... name five.





Teams quite obviously should know local area players better than kids from Alaska. Hometown should make a difference and in particular in our case because Houston produces more talent than Alaska. Ed Wade can not only see any Houston high schooler any day of the week, he can meet their families and coaches, friends, and so on and also get a feel for the competition they face and the quality of baseball in that district. When's he making that trip to Alaska to watch all their kids and get all of that info? Uh... good point man.

agree. especially in texas where there is premium talent all across the region. also, the astros have a strong history of winning, and hopefully we've built a strong enough fan base among highschool players that theyll actually want to be astros when theyre draft eligible. hopefully seaton signs with us because of the allure of being an astro.

[The Cat]

Ha, quick... name five.

Mike Piazza, Kenny Rogers, Marcus Giles (he had four very good years), Mark Buehrle, Jeff Conine. Yeah, Buehrle was 38 I believe, but close enough that the point stands. And those are just five modern, clearly above average guys off the top of my head. There are certainly a lot more, if you expand the pool beyond this decade and expand it to MLB-regular types instead of those who have clearly excelled. Let me know if you still want to deny the obvious, and we can keep playing this game -- I have no problems doing that. The MLB draft is absurdly random. High picks routinely bust, and very late round picks often excel.

Teams quite obviously should know local area players better than kids from Alaska. Hometown should make a difference and in particular in our case because Houston produces more talent than Alaska. Ed Wade can not only see any Houston high schooler any day of the week, he can meet their families and coaches, friends, and so on and also get a feel for the competition they face and the quality of baseball in that district. When's he making that trip to Alaska to watch all their kids and get all of that info? Uh... good point man.

I don't know if you're kidding or not, but the Astros have scouts all over the place who make trips to Alaska every year. Ed Wade isn't particularly more baseball adept or savvy than a given member of the scouting staff -- he's just the lead face on the operation. (And he's making plenty of trips, himself.) In addition to their own scouts, they have dozens of services, contacts and information-sharing agreements with other clubs (see Rockets/Wolves in basketball, for example).

I'll agree that there comes a point later in the draft where the pool simply becomes too large for the scouts and services in an organization to handle, and at that point, hometown becomes a factor. But in the context of the first few rounds -- which the discussion today was about -- you better believe the Astros know everything in the world about Joe Schmo from Alaska that they do about someone from Houston. They've had scouts at his games. They've talked to people around him. They've researched the district. Now, is Houston a hot spot for talent that the team should focus on? Sure, but no more so than most other major metros around the United States which have similar baseball demographics.

Later in the draft, when the potential pool grows out of control, yes -- it becomes a factor. In the context of today's discussion -- when you're talking top 200 or so -- it absolutely does not. You're very naive if you don't think modern day organizations have that kind of reach. And no, I'm not speculating here -- I know this from personal, first-hand knowledge.

[rocketlaunch]

According to the Chron we have already signed our supplemental pick Lyles. This is good I take it Drayton will open it up for the H.S. kids this year.

"With the 38th pick, a sandwich pick between the first and second round, the Astros chose Jordan Lyles, a 6-4, 185-pound righthander from Hartsville High School in South Carolina. Lyles signed Thursday night for an undisclosed amount."

http://www.thestate.com/sports/story/426203.html

“We had an idea he’d go second or third round, but he went higher than that,” Lee said. “He went down to Houston to work out for the Astros and he did pretty well there. He struck out four or five batters, and his velocity was getting up higher than they’d seen before.

“It got up to about 93 miles per hour, and they kind of bumped him up on their board a little.

“We kind of expected to lose him; we thought he’d be drafted pretty good.”

Lyles earned a “more than $900,000” signing bonus, according to advisor Lee Vaughan

[rusHour]

Here's my analysis of our draft.
Thanks for this. Any one else have some opinions for the few guys that do not keep up?

[htownbball]

well cole st clair and jordan danks are off the board now. danks taken ahead of our pick but we passed on st clair.

our day 2 draft isnt really impressing me right now. alot of filler picks who dont project much

[DoitDickau]

One things that should be taken into account when viewing the Astros first few picks is that the Brewers, where Heck (our scouting director) came from, have a history with "reaching" with first round picks. They also have a history of doing very well with those reaches.

Everyone had Matt La Porta going at the end of the first round last year, but the Brewers selected him 7th overall. He's now one of the top prospects in all of baseball. They had other "reaches" as well. I think part of that is due to their budget (they, like the astros, are one of the few teams that absolutely follows mlb slotting guidelines) and part of that is just probably due to confidence in their scouting. How much of that success is due to Heck or the Brewer Scouting director, i don't know, but Heck and the Astros deserve the benefit of the doubt.

[htownbball]

yea, but laporta had huge power and everyone knew he would hit. the main question was where he'd play since they already had prince fielder. we dont know too much about castro because he has no track record and he doesnt project to be a 20 homer type.

[No Worries]

Astros complete draft results, with some short vids (http://houston.astros.mlb.com/mlb/events/draft/y2008/drafttracker.jsp?p=0&s=30&sc=pick_number&so=ascending&st=number&ft=TM&fv=hou)

Astros first six round in depth. (http://houston.astros.mlb.com/hou/downloads/y2007/HOU_2008_Draft_release.pdf)

[Big Shot Bob]

yea, but laporta had huge power and everyone knew he would hit. the main question was where he'd play since they already had prince fielder. we dont know too much about castro because he has no track record and he doesnt project to be a 20 homer type.

Well he just hit a home run right now. Its hard to just say that someone wont project to be a 20 home run guy. There's still alot of time for them to develop. Look a Piazza a 62nd round pick.

[htownbball]

2-3 so far with a 2 run homer in the 1st game of the supers. After watching him, I still feel he was a bit overvalued because of his position, but calling him a reach may be a bit much. His swing is very condusive of backspin, which leads to doubles and home runs. He hit his homer to left center field, showing that he has the ability to stay back on balls and drive them the other way. 10 was a little high for him, but I think he would have been properly valued AFTER Justin Smoak. If he had been taken at pick 11, I'm not so sure people would be making as big a fuss. He would definitely be gone by the time the Mets picked at 18, so lets look at picks 11-18.

11. 1B Justin Smoak
12. 2B Jemile Weeks
13. 1B Brett Wallace
14. OF Aaron Hicks
15. P/3B Ethan Martin
16. C/IF Brett Lawrie
17. 1B David Cooper
18. 1B/OF Ike Davis

Outside of Smoak, none of those guys really jumps out to me as being a better player or better value than Castro. There's 4 1B, a raw outfielder in Hicks, a small 2B in Weeks (he's 5'7 165lbs), a big time Canadian hitter in Lawrie, and a raw pitcher in Martin.

Out of those guys, Lawrie and Martin may have the most upside, but they also have alot of questions. Martin has great stuff, but is relatively inexperienced. Lawrie has no true position and he's...Canadian. Watching his video wasnt very pretty either.

So what's my evaluation of Castro? He's a solid guy who could be a guy who throws out 30-35% of base stealers and hit .275 with 10 homers and 65 RBI. He does have strength, and could possibly hit 15-20 homers some day, but he seems like a pretty "safe" guy despite the fact that he doesn't have much of a track record of success. Now, those 4 1B will no doubt out produce his bat, but we also got a huge 1B in the 3rd round who has quite a bit of upside as well. After Chase Davidson was picked, no 1B was picked until pick 143. The Astros say they'll move him to the OF, but I think his future is at 1B.

So...my evaluation? The Astros chose the best available catcher, and still a 1st round value, but increased the value of that 1st round pick by picking up Chase Davidson in the 3rd. If the Astros are sure that both of those guys will turn out to be what they thought they'd be, then the duo would be the best 1B/C value in the top 5 rounds. Scouts are right when they say there is a considerable dropoff in catcher talent after Castro. None of them have the upside that Castro has. Was it a great pick? Probably not, but they MADE Castro the right pick by taking Davidson in the 3rd.

[WhoMikeJames]

Castro having a really good game tonight.

2-3 HR

[WhoMikeJames]

Another good game for Castro yesterday, 3-4 4 RBI.

[divnashok]

Great series for Castro, love the pick!

Castro>>>>>Smoak

[htownbball]

signed our 2nd rounder jay austin today