What is going on with the market?

[glynch]

The stock market is off to a horrible start this year. . How much further can it go down? Is there anything that is going up? Confused.

[pirc1]

The stock market is off to a horrible start this year. . How much further can it go down? Is there anything that is going up? Confused.

Not likely to go up much in the near term, the economical outlook is not great at the moment. Not sure where is the bottom.

[Baqui99]

Time to load up on precious metals. Silver is at a 27 year high today.

[pirc1]

Time to load up on precious metals. Silver is at a 27 year high today.

Invest in international funds! :p

[Mr. Clutch]

Is there anything that is going up?

Commodities.

Emerging markets, though people think a bubble might be developing here.

Treasuries will be safe.

Stock market will probably go down until p/e ratios with normal corporate profits return. Corporate profits were abnormally high these past several years, so ignore people who say stocks are cheap according to p/e ratios.

US stocks are a place to avoid in my opinion. Consumers and banks are saddled with debt and there is no easy way out.

[SWTsig]

good time to be in commodities.

[Mr. Clutch]

good time to be in commodities.

I wish less people would say that.

But I really wish I could invest in commodities through my 401(k).

[DonkeyMagic]

correction. i never got comfortable with 13000+, in fact I think I called it a few weeks about that we would be under that soon(pats self on back). I seethings hopping around from 12300-12800 for the next few weeks.

[HayesStreet]

why would you buy gold or silver when they are at long term highs?

[Space Ghost]

why would you buy gold or silver when they are at long term highs?

Everyone knows to buy low and sell high. The sheep mentality forces us to do the opposite. This is a great time to buy real estate, but everyone is avoiding it like the plague.

[SWTsig]

why would you buy gold or silver when they are at long term highs?

well i just said it was a good time to be "in" commodities.... probably should've jumped onthat bandwagon 6-8 months ago at least.

real estate, however, is looking decent at this point. just gotta figure out if we're pretty much at the bottom or if there's more fallout coming....

[robbie380]

Everyone knows to buy low and sell high. The sheep mentality forces us to do the opposite. This is a great time to buy real estate, but everyone is avoiding it like the plague.


bad time to rush into real estate. wait because it is not going to be a V bottom. it will be more like a U bottom. further rates will be coming down more so no reason to jump in head first.

[Trader_Jorge]

I think at least part of the downturn has been Obama's rise in the media. The markets are afraid that America might commit economic suicide by electing him.

[pgabriel]

I think at least part of the downturn has been Obama's rise in the media. The markets are afraid that America might commit economic suicide by electing him.


I just hope you don't commit suicide if he's elected

[Azadre]

I think at least part of the downturn has been Obama's rise in the media. The markets are afraid that America might commit economic suicide by electing him.
You should turn in your college degree. You might just unaccredit your institution.

[Rule0001]

Ag, Utilities, and "short" etf's :)
LOLOLOLOLOLOL

[robbie380]

The stock market is off to a horrible start this year. . How much further can it go down? Is there anything that is going up? Confused.


well glynch it is a TON of things. it is VERY VERY ugly out there. it took me awhile to figure things out today. basically, it is a combination of recession fears (which are looking very likely) and the realization that the american consumer is over extended. retail sales came in below expectations whic wasn't good. luckily PPI came in pretty much in line which helped ease some inflation fears. the market would have been obliterated if PPI came in high showing prices were getting too hot.

pretty much every retailer that has report or guided recently has been to the downside. also you combine that with what american express said when they saw a slow down in spending and troubles with payments that came out of nowhere in december. then today after hour you had intel confirming what people were worried about and they reported a bad quarter. intel had sold off about 15% in the weeks prior to earnings on worries of slowing orders and then today after they reported they are down another 14+% in the after hours trading. also, citigroup had bad earnings as well today. everyone was expecting bad from them but it was still worse than bad. they basically lost an extra $4 billion more than expected. there is still a lot of uncertainty about their future too.

then you combine all that with persisting housing troubles, weak dollar, skyrocketing commodity prices, massive losses in the banking industry, and probably a couple other things i am forgetting and you have some very bad fundamental problems.

that being said i am still scouring the market looking for value buys on the retailer/restuarant side and anything that may have been raped too hard with the recession fears. i am not buying now because things look like they are going to get worse before they get better but i want to have some good companies lined up that i might be able to get into below book and cash value.

also, tomorrow we have CPI, JP Morgan earnings, and Wells Fargo earnings.

[robbie380]

notes from briefing.com about the overseas trading...the market is definitely spooked bad by the U.S.

06:27 Europe shares drop as US worries hit banks, techs

European shares fell on Wednesday as growing fear of a U.S. recession hit banks, while tech stocks recoiled after a grim outlook from Intel and a disappointing update from Dutch group ASML. By 0914 GMT, the FTSEurofirst 300 index of top European shares was down 1.05% at 1,380.69 points, having earlier hit its lowest level since September 2006 at 1,376.35, and is now showing a loss of nearly 9% for the year... Around Europe, London's FTSE 100 index fell 1.3%, while Frankfurt's DAX dropped 1% and Paris' CAC 40 lost 1.1%. (Reuters)


06:27 Asian stock markets plunge; Sensex ends down 380pts

Asian markets plunged Wednesday on growing speculation the U.S. economy -a vital export market- is sliding into a recession that could lead to a global slowdown. In Hong Kong, the benchmark Hang Seng index sank 5.4% -its biggest percentage drop since the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks- to 24,450.85. Tokyo's Nikkei 225 index fell 3.4% to 13,504.51 points, its lowest in more than two years. Markets in Australia, China, India, South Korea, New Zealand and the Philippines also dropped sharply on uncertainty about the U.S. economic outlook and the full extent of the subprime mortgage crisis. ...Mirroring the weak trend in global markets, the Sensex opened with a huge negative gap of 171 points at 20,080. Unabated selling saw the index drift deeper into red as the day progressed. The index tumbled to a low of 19,513 - down 738 points from the previous close - in late noon deals. Aggressive buying at lower levels saw the index stage a significant recovery, and finally settle with a loss of 383 points at 19,868. (Thomson, Business Standard)

[rhadamanthus]

I am considering moving money into bonds for a few years until things settle out. Any thoughts?

I'll keep the 401k mixed, but move the IRAs etc. into something a tad more stable.

[SWTsig]

I think at least part of the downturn has been Obama's rise in the media. The markets are afraid that America might commit economic suicide by electing him.

yeah, that's it.

:rolleyes:

let me guess, he's responsible for this too:

Inflation Mild Last Month But Not For All of 2007

U.S. consumer prices rose a relatively modest 0.3 percent in December but for all of 2007 prices shot up at the fastest rate in seventeen years, largely because of soaring energy costs, the Labor Department reported on Wednesday.

The Consumer Price Index, the most broadly used gauge of inflation, rose 4.1 percent in 2007, well ahead of the 2.5 percent increase posted in 2006 and the largest 12-month rise since a 6.1 percent increase in 1990.

December's CPI rise followed a sharp 0.8 percent jump in November and was modestly ahead of Wall Street economists' forecasts for a 0.2 percent gain.

Core prices that strip out volatile food and energy items rose 0.2 percent in December - in line with forecasts - following a 0.3 percent November increase. For all of 2007, core prices were up 2.4 percent following a 2.6 percent pickup in 2006. That was the smallest 12-month rise in core prices since a 2.2 percent increase in 2005.

The department said both food and energy costs rose during the full year of 2007 at the fastest rates since 1990. Energy costs in the 12 months were up 17.4 percent while food gained 4.9 percent .

[bigtexxx]

I've been primarily in cash for the past month while the market has tanked. The emerging markets have been getting destroyed, also, in the past month. Even worse than the US markets. If the US is in a recession, China is f***ed because nobody is going to buy their exports.

I'd look to short etfs or to buy stocks that perform well in interest rate-declining environments, because the fed will reduce rates a few more times.

[bigtexxx]

Guys, if you think a democratic president is good for the market, you're insane. Repealing tax cuts and raising taxes is exactly what is NOT needed right now. Hussein Ubama is so clueless about economic policy it's not even funny - the guy is simply too inexperienced to try to right the ship.

[mc mark]

- the guy is simply too experienced to try to right the ship.

Oops!

;)

[rhadamanthus]

Guys, if you think a democratic president is good for the market, you're insane.

Quoted for absurdity.

[bigtexxx]

Quoted for absurdity.

Please explain to me how a tax increase is going to help today's market. I'm dying to find out the truth, friend.

[pgabriel]

Democrat: Bill Clinton was great for the economy.

Republican: Presidents have very little to do with economy

Republican: George Bush is great for economy

:rolleyes:

[bigtexxx]

Democrat: Bill Clinton was great for the economy.

Republican: Presidents have very little to do with economy

Republican: George Bush is great for economy

:rolleyes:

How will a tax increase help today's market? Do tell

[rhadamanthus]

How will a tax increase help today's market? Do tell

I'd like you to show me how dubya's tax cuts coupled with ginormous defecit spending were good for the economy. Please. I'm really interested considering that both you and I are bailing the stock market at the moment in anticipation of a recession.

[deepblue]

I'd like you to show me how dubya's tax cuts coupled with ginormous defecit spending were good for the economy. Please. I'm really interested considering that both you and I are bailing the stock market at the moment in anticipation of a recession.

That's why you need to keep the tax low and cut spending => Mitt Romney.

[pgabriel]

How will a tax increase help today's market? Do tell


how are the tax cuts helping? do tell

[rhadamanthus]

That's why you need to keep the tax low and cut spending => Mitt Romney.

I won't be holding my breath for that too happen. It never works. But I totally agree in principle. Balanced budget amendment anyone?

Any thoughts on my earlier question deepblue? I am pretty sure you are vastly smarter than I am when it comes to this sort of thing, given your many posts on the subject.

[Mr. Clutch]

why would you buy gold or silver when they are at long term highs?

Adjusted for inflation, gold is nowhere near it's alltime high. Not sure about silver.

[Mr. Clutch]

Everyone knows to buy low and sell high. The sheep mentality forces us to do the opposite. This is a great time to buy real estate, but everyone is avoiding it like the plague.

Yeah right. No way real estate is good right now. Just because it tanks doesnt mean it's automatically cheap. There is tons of unsold inventory out there that is going to suppress the market, not to mention that people dont have the money to buy even if inventory was normal.

And people arent rushing into commodities. I can't even get into them because I put most of my money in 401(k) and I dont have a commodities option. I need to save cash and invest in an ETF.

[deepblue]

I won't be holding my breath for that too happen. It never works.

Any thoughts on my earlier question deepblue? I am pretty sure you are vastly smarter than I am when it comes to this sort of thing, given your many posts on the subject.

We will see, first Mitt has to win the GOP nomination.

As for your other question, I would keep most of the money in cash (I am 80% cash right now), a lot of bond fund's yield aren't that great, you can get reasonable rate at money market short term anyway. This market can easily go down another 10%. The fed will cut rates again, which might cause USD to drop some more. So stay on the sidelines and be ready to jump in.

[SWTsig]

Guys, if you think a democratic president is good for the market, you're insane. Repealing tax cuts and raising taxes is exactly what is NOT needed right now. Hussein Ubama is so clueless about economic policy it's not even funny - the guy is simply too inexperienced to try to right the ship.

yes, yes... because dubya had such a strong economic/financial background.

[jo mama]

Guys, if you think a democratic president is good for the market, you're insane.

says the poster who continues to support the most fiscally liberal and irresponsible president this country has ever had.

NO CRED!

[bigtexxx]

The past few years' GDP gains speak for themselves. Arguing with you lefties who are blinded by your political frustrations is a fool's errand.

I'm printing cash with my investments while you lefties sit around and moan and while like children.

[No Worries]

Yeah right. No way real estate is good right now. Just because it tanks doesnt mean it's automatically cheap. There is tons of unsold inventory out there that is going to suppress the market, not to mention that people dont have the money to buy even if inventory was normal.
The inventory of unsold homes is just going to get worse over the next 18 months when all of the remaining subprime mortgages reset and followed by foreclosures shortly thereafter.

I suspect that this will be a tough year for the economy and the stock market. And if the the Fed does not keep inflation in check, stagflation is a real possibility; in which case, 2009 will be another bleak year.

[No Worries]

I'm printing cash with my investments while you lefties sit around and moan and while like children.
I find great humor in you calling what you do "investing".

[ivanyy2000]

that being said i am still scouring the market looking for value buys on the retailer/restuarant side and anything that may have been raped too hard with the recession fears. i am not buying now because things look like they are going to get worse before they get better but i want to have some good companies lined up that i might be able to get into below book and cash value.



You sir, obviously know what you are talking about. I, as an individual investor, love to see people panic.

It is not there yet, I am still in the process of organizing my watch list. I wish more bad news will be thrown into the market.

[DonkeyMagic]

i just hope i dont start hearing "stimulus" package being tossed around in the up and coming elections. There is certainly no need to panic...downturns happen, but it would just makes things worse for the govt to start and feel the need to throw more money out there that it doesnt have. I don't like what the leading dems, hill and obama, have very saying with regard to the economy.

[rhadamanthus]

The past few years' GDP gains speak for themselves.

Even I know better than that. :rolleyes:

[Supermac34]

They just had some analyst the other day on CNBC saying that the "analysts" and media were going to drive the economy lower just by talking about it.

His theory is that since the US economy is based 2/3 on consumers, that if you create a negative media environment and scare everyone by throwing around buzzwords like "crisis" and "recession" that it will become a self fulfilling prophecy. Especially when other things in the economy (still low unemployment, still decent corporate profits, etc) point to things not being so bad until you take away all the consumer confidence by telling them how terrible things can be.

[DonkeyMagic]

makes sense supermac...there will be some overreaction from fear.

i just hope the govt and fed doesnt overreact as well. Let a natural down turn take its course. Rushing to try to "fix" the problem, i think, would just make matters worse

[robbie380]

They just had some analyst the other day on CNBC saying that the "analysts" and media were going to drive the economy lower just by talking about it.

His theory is that since the US economy is based 2/3 on consumers, that if you create a negative media environment and scare everyone by throwing around buzzwords like "crisis" and "recession" that it will become a self fulfilling prophecy. Especially when other things in the economy (still low unemployment, still decent corporate profits, etc) point to things not being so bad until you take away all the consumer confidence by telling them how terrible things can be.


that is my sentiment as well.

[pgabriel]

They just had some analyst the other day on CNBC saying that the "analysts" and media were going to drive the economy lower just by talking about it.

His theory is that since the US economy is based 2/3 on consumers, that if you create a negative media environment and scare everyone by throwing around buzzwords like "crisis" and "recession" that it will become a self fulfilling prophecy. Especially when other things in the economy (still low unemployment, still decent corporate profits, etc) point to things not being so bad until you take away all the consumer confidence by telling them how terrible things can be.

sub prime and american express commenting on slow pays aren't media driven. I won't claim to be an economist but it would seem to me that inflation and the weakening dollar is the problem. so people may have jobs, but if their dollar is weakened, its still negative.

[DonkeyMagic]

sub prime and american express commenting on slow pays aren't media driven

but the extent that the media made sub-prime a HUGE issue was media driven. It was a "big deal" but hardly the crisis they made it out to be.

credit, on the other hand, has been an ongoing problem in this country. people just love to spend what they dont have... :confused:

[robbie380]

just saw this posted from briefing.com quoting a WSJ blog...i don't have the link to the actual blog. it's a different take on the housing market that i haven't really seen talked about yet.

Why baby boomers may bust the housing market - WSJ Blog

A WSJ blog writes "think the current housing downturn and the subprime mortgage mess is the worst of the housing market's problems? Not so, according to a report published this month in the Journal of the American Planning Association. About to wreak havoc on the housing mkt are the 78 mln American baby boomers who will "retire, relocate, and eventually withdraw from the housing market," according to report authors Dowell Myers, a professor of urban planning and demography in the School of Policy, Planning and Development at the University of Southern California, and SungHo Ryu, an associate planner with the Southern California Association of Govts. Using demographic data to show that individuals in their mid-60s tend to sell more often than buy, the authors contend that when boomers — a "dominant force in the housing market" — start reaching the age of 65 in the year 2011, a mkt shift will occur... in some states there will be "more homes available for sale than there are buyers for them." Home prices will soften. The "sell-off" will create a sizeable hurdle for the housing mkt, because as Mr. Myers puts it, "It isn't money that buys property, it's warm bodies. If you don't have enough warm bodies to fill up the space, the space stays empty." The report points out that the ratio of those aged 65 and older to working age (25 to 64) adults will increase by 67% between 2010 and 2030, and thats when these older adults try to sell their "high-priced homes" to a "relatively smaller and less-advantaged generation" there will be more homes for sale. In some states -- namely Connecticut, Hawaii, New York, North Dakota, Pennsylvania and West Virginia -- the process has already begun, with sellers starting to outnumber buyers, Mr. Myers says. He contends that the East Coast, particular Maryland and states north, face a double hurdle because there aren't enough young people to pick up the slack as boomers sell off and because prices are so high that many will not be able to afford these homes... On the other hand, he says that in Sunbelt states like Florida and Arizona -- where there is a healthy supply of young people as well as a steady influx of retirees, prices could jump back in a period of two years or so, depending on each state's particular demographics, Mr. Myers says. The authors suggest that to combat the boomer generational trend, local communities need to limit overbuilding of new housing, put measures into place to retain the elderly in the community and attract young households and immigrant households to local neighborhoods."

[DonkeyMagic]

^ thats an interesting take.

I hope it does go belly up in a couple years. just in time for me to get a nice house for cheap :)

[F.D. Khan]

Listen Up People as You're about to get some advice about valuations
within the various asset classes and where to be and not be.

The emerging markets stocks are in a bubble. The markets mimic the rhetoric regarding tech companies from 1999, as .50 of every dollar in 2007 was invested in these funds. The region, though it truly is the future as technology was in 1999, is COMPLETELY overvalued by at least 25% and up to 40%.

Commodities and energy follows the same pattern and don't give me the 5-year return nonsense as all I see are 5 star managers that are used to build 2-star portfolios. If you're jumping into emerging markets, commodities or energy, you are buying those 5-year returns that you'll never see.

The most undervalued area in the marketplace is the large US market (excluding energy) and focusing on financials. The last time these companies were this close to price/book ratio the two year returns were significant (1991). But when looking at mutual funds, hedge funds or institutionally managed accounts, be weary of the 'best' performing one the last few years as that undoubtedly means it had an emerging markets slant or an energy focus. Therefore if those areas give up appreciation you'll be recieving 2 star returns from your 5-star fund.

The UK market may do well as well as some larger European companies as they've been adversely affected by a irrationally high euro/pound to dollar ratio and it adversely affects their international sales. As these prices converge, it may help these companies to compete on a global level.

US large multinationals recieve a bulk of their sales from abroad, so by investing in these companies, one is recieving international and emerging markets exposure while benefitting from the lower risk to value figures from US companies.

Cheers!

[pirc1]

^ thats an interesting take.

I hope it does go belly up in a couple years. just in time for me to get a nice house for cheap :)

We will have all these illegal immigrants who will want to buy homes! :D

[Dubious]

Listening to Jim Blake's broadcast from last night on on http://www.streettalklive.com/

As I understand it, he thinks the odds are the Dow could drop to 12,000 over the next few days but since we are in an deeply oversold position , we could rally back to somewhere around 13,200. Then if the recession becomes more apparent the market could drop 30% of it's value followed by a relief bounce where all the pundits will say "see you need to stay invested, stocks always recover". But if we really are in a recession, the market could roll over for some extended period.

He also thinks gold has about peaked.

These are the guys that I trust with my money, and although they were a bit too consevative during the market rally of the past couple of years they try to stay poisitioned to reduce your losses.

The two hour broadcasts don't take that long to listen to on line if you FF over the commercials.

[pirc1]

Listen Up People as You're about to get some advice about valuations
within the various asset classes and where to be and not be.

The emerging markets stocks are in a bubble. The markets mimic the rhetoric regarding tech companies from 1999, as .50 of every dollar in 2007 was invested in these funds. The region, though it truly is the future as technology was in 1999, is COMPLETELY overvalued by at least 25% and up to 40%.

Commodities and energy follows the same pattern and don't give me the 5-year return nonsense as all I see are 5 star managers that are used to build 2-star portfolios. If you're jumping into emerging markets, commodities or energy, you are buying those 5-year returns that you'll never see.

The most undervalued area in the marketplace is the large US market (excluding energy) and focusing on financials. The last time these companies were this close to price/book ratio the two year returns were significant (1991). But when looking at mutual funds, hedge funds or institutionally managed accounts, be weary of the 'best' performing one the last few years as that undoubtedly means it had an emerging markets slant or an energy focus. Therefore if those areas give up appreciation you'll be recieving 2 star returns from your 5-star fund.

The UK market may do well as well as some larger European companies as they've been adversely affected by a irrationally high euro/pound to dollar ratio and it adversely affects their international sales. As these prices converge, it may help these companies to compete on a global level.

US large multinationals recieve a bulk of their sales from abroad, so by investing in these companies, one is recieving international and emerging markets exposure while benefitting from the lower risk to value figures from US companies.

Cheers!

Buying financial companies is a good idea, but have they bottomed out yet?

[F.D. Khan]

Buying financial companies is a good idea, but have they bottomed out yet?

It should be an overweight in a portfolio that has an overweight in
US large equity positions. Just as emerging markets should be an
underweighted position and not eliminated as markets can remain
irrational for very long periods of time.

Its never prudent to commit most of one's capital to any one area
as managing downward risk is the most important aspect of a portfolio.
Its about being strategic and creating a low correllated portfolio
that has a focus on the more opportunistic areas of the market and
a defensive stance against overvalued (usually the most popular)
asset classes.

A true portfolio should not have all pieces going up at the same time.
As the head of Yale's Endowment, David Swenson, always says the fact
that all parts of their portfolio is not going up is by design.

[OldManBernie]

I'd like you to show me how dubya's tax cuts coupled with ginormous defecit spending were good for the economy. Please. I'm really interested considering that both you and I are bailing the stock market at the moment in anticipation of a recession.

Here's an article quoting an economic professor from Harvard saying that we need up $150B tax cuts and government spending to boost our sagging economy. I don't necessarily agree with Bush's target on where to cut taxes, but at least the reasons behind the tax cuts are legit.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080116/ap_on_go_co/economy_stimulus

[pirc1]

Here's an article quoting an economic professor from Harvard saying that we need up $150B tax cuts and government spending to boost our sagging economy. I don't necessarily agree with Bush's target on where to cut taxes, but at least the reasons behind the tax cuts are legit.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080116/ap_on_go_co/economy_stimulus


Tax cut as a general idea is great! Just don't cut tax and then start a war! Government waste way too much money, I want to cut tax and I want government to reduce spending!

[OldManBernie]

Tax cut as a general idea is great! Just don't cut tax and then start a war! Government waste way too much money, I want to cut tax and I want government to reduce spending!

I agree with you except that government spending is not necessarily bad if it increases our business opportunities and the welfare of the nation. The war does neither.

[DonkeyMagic]

tax cuts AND govt spending doesnt seem like a good idea to me. there is plenty of money already out there, the govt printing some more, just seems like it would make things even worse

[OldManBernie]

tax cuts AND govt spending doesnt seem like a good idea to me. there is plenty of money already out there, the govt printing some more, just seems like it would make things even worse

Deficit spending is not bad if the money is spent responsibly. If our net GDP outgrows our extra spending, then we would actually have a net gain from the spending because of the expanded tax base.

[DonkeyMagic]

Deficit spending is not bad if the money is spent responsibly. If our net GDP outgrows our extra spending, then we would actually have a net gain from the spending because of the expanded tax base.


not, its not necessarily a bad thing. But in our current situation, I dont think its wise either. Im going mostly from an monetary standpoint. there is already plenty of money out there (inflation is already upon us)...the govt doesnt need to be adding more and making things worse.

I believe FDR tried govt spending himself out of a pinch and got nothing buta a decade of depression (of course, there were many other variable, but more govt spending didnt help)

[No Worries]

They just had some analyst the other day on CNBC saying that the "analysts" and media were going to drive the economy lower just by talking about it.
Somber Fed Says Economy Has Lost Punch (http://money.excite.com/jsp/nw/nwdt_rt_top.jsp?cat=TOPBIZ&feed=ap&src=601&section=news&news_id=ap-d8u78df80&date=20080116&alias=/alias/money/cm/nw)

Wednesday January 16, 5:33 PM EST

WASHINGTON (AP) — Retailers, home builders and many manufacturers should brace for even more rough times ahead, a somber Federal Reserve suggested Wednesday amid growing fears that the U.S. might be sliding into recession.

The Fed's snapshot of business conditions showed a national economy losing momentum heading into the new year and a future riddled with uncertainty. The persistent housing slump and harder-to-get credit are making people and businesses ever more cautious, it said.

Separately on Wednesday, more big banks reported losses and said people were having trouble making payments for everything from credit cards to cars. Stocks were mostly down for the day, the Dow Jones industrial average declining 34.95 points, or 0.28 percent.

The Fed report was the unwelcome icing on a recent batch of economic indicators — ranging from a plunge in retail sales to a big jump in unemployment — raising concern that the country is heading for its first recession since 2001.

At the beginning of last year, many economists put the chance of a recession at less than 1-in-3; now an increasing number say 50-50 or even worse. Goldman Sachs, the biggest investment bank on Wall Street, thinks a recession is inevitable this year.

The Fed report said the economy did grow during the survey period — from the middle of November through December — but more slowly than during the late fall. Credit problems intensified in December as did troubles in the housing market. That threw Wall Street into new turbulence.

The economy probably grew at a feeble pace of about 1.5 percent or less in the final three months of last year and will stay weak in the first quarter of this year as consumers — major shapers of the nation's economic health — tighten their belts.

After retailers suffered their worst sales season in five years in 2007, "the outlook for 2008 among retail merchants was cautious," the Fed said in its report. And the outlook for housing remains gloomy: "weak during the first part of 2008."

Fallout from a meltdown in risky "subprime" mortgages continued to sock financial institutions. JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Wells Fargo Inc. both reported Wednesday that their earnings fell — raising fresh fears of a widespread lending crisis.

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, in a speech last week, pledged to aggressively cut a key interest rate as needed to try to prevent all these problems from plunging the economy into a major recession. That may well mean a bold half-point cut at the end of a two-day meeting on Jan. 30. The Fed started cutting rates in September, but some critics on Wall Street and elsewhere say Bernanke should have acted sooner and more forcefully.

"Clearly there is a high level of caution," said Ken Mayland, president of ClearView Economics. "Everyone's guard is up to protect and insulate one's businesses from the high degree of sluggishness that is expected to prevail in the months ahead."

With voters expressing angst over the economy, the White House and the Democrat-controlled Congress are exploring ways — including the possibility of temporary tax rebates — to get money quickly into the hands of consumers and help stimulate spending. Presidential contenders also are floating their own ideas for rescue packages.

The chairman of Congress' Joint Economic Committee said he had spoken Monday with Bernanke and found him "generally supportive" of lawmakers and Bush approving a stimulus bill.

Bernanke, who hasn't supported any specific plan, testifies before the House Budget Committee Thursday.

The recent leap in the nation's unemployment rate, from 4.7 percent in November to 5 percent in December, rang one of the loudest warning bells. It raised concerns that consumers would clamp down, sending the economy into a tailspin.

On Wednesday, the Fed observed that "holiday sales were generally disappointing" and pointed to "further weakness in auto sales."

A day earlier, the government reported that shoppers cut back on their spending by 0.4 percent in December, wrapping up the weakest year for retailers since 2002.

Adding to worry about how consumers will hold up: Consumer confidence, as measured by the RBC Cash Index, fell in January to its lowest point in figures dating back to 2002.

The housing picture remains bleak — "quite weak" in all Fed regions, the survey said. Sales continued to be sluggish, and inventories of unsold homes "persisted at historically high levels."

Manufacturing activity varied around the country, but there was one common thread: Factories reported "pronounced weakness" in housing-related industries as well as the automobile business. The Fed, in a separate report Wednesday, said production by big industry was flat in December, fresh evidence of an economic slowdown.

Mayland was more graphic. "Manufacturers have gotten cold feet," he said.

Businesses are having to cope with high costs for energy and food, too. That's squeezing profit margins for companies and boosting prices to some customers.

Consumer prices moderated in December, rising by 0.3 percent, the Labor Department reported Wednesday. For all of 2007, prices jumped 4.1 percent, the biggest increase in 17 years.

----------------------

Imagine if I highlighted the whole effing thing. Damn the Fed for being drug down by that whining liberal press.

[SamFisher]

^I can't believe news outlets like AP that put quotes around "subprime" as if it's a word in a different language. If you know enough to read about rate cuts, you should have seen the word subprime (or sub-prime) before.

sorry- just a random pet peeve.

[Mr. Clutch]

They just had some analyst the other day on CNBC saying that the "analysts" and media were going to drive the economy lower just by talking about it.

His theory is that since the US economy is based 2/3 on consumers, that if you create a negative media environment and scare everyone by throwing around buzzwords like "crisis" and "recession" that it will become a self fulfilling prophecy. Especially when other things in the economy (still low unemployment, still decent corporate profits, etc) point to things not being so bad until you take away all the consumer confidence by telling them how terrible things can be.

CNBC is funny. They have an interest in a strong stock market, otherwise no one will watch. I find Larry Kudlow and some of his guests to be total hacks.

If our economy can be forced into recession by a bunch of talk, then how fragile is it? Seriously, that sounds like a silly theory to me.

It's just funny watching some of the CNBC people squirm through all this and be in utter denial of what we are facing. I've been watching it the past year because I felt the bubble was about to burst, and they keep telling everyone to BUY BUY BUY even as things go lower.

When things go up, they say BUY because it's going higher. When things are going down, they say "people are stupid, they are overeacting, and NOW it's the time to buy because stocks are cheap!" Yeah right.

I really enjoy whenever Jim Rodgers is on there though. He is brilliant and knows what he is talking about.

[Mr. Brightside]

I really enjoy whenever Jim Rodgers is on there though. He is brilliant and knows what he is talking about.


Rogers was the genius behind Quantum. It wasn't Soros, although most people like to think so.

Rogers talks about the super commodity bull cycle we are in right now. It is year 6 of a 15-20 year bull cycle. You can find ETF's that invest in them like DBA and some of the precious metal ETF's (GLD, SLV) as well.

I still think the market has some more ways down to go. I just don't see enough fear in the market right now. Another 500-600 points on the DJIA or so should do it. I think everyone is waiting for a 75 bps cut by the Fed, and thus are complacent.

The Fed will cave into the pressure of the politico's and the general public by cutting rates again and again just to save the stock market. Recession's in itself are not bad or unnatural. They are normal happenings that are required every so often to re-balance the natural order of things. Inflation is clearly out of control, and the Fed is doing nothing about it. This anticipated next round of rate cuts will just plunge the US Dollar further into oblivion. This will send commodity prices higher and higher. Thus a good time to be in any sort of commodity, namely agriculture, and metals.

The only bright point for bullish investors is the TED Spread is not showing as much credit disturbance or turmoil as the indicator had been showing a few months ago.

On the international front, India (INP) and Malaysia (EWM) seem to be shaking off any US market contagion that is present. I don't factor in China, since its inherently volatile although Shangai is still up for the year.

But when you have terrible December holiday retail figures coupled with the job figures, you know the trouble is just getting started for the overall economy.

[robbie380]

On the international front, India (INP) and Malaysia (EWM) seem to be shaking off any US market contagion that is present. I don't factor in China, since its inherently volatile although Shangai is still up for the year.

hey mr. brightside do you have any idea why INP trades so far above it's NAV? i haven't been able to figure it out.

[mc mark]

From today's NYTs

Jr may hold stimulus package hostage as leverage to press congress to make tax cuts permanent.

--------------


WASHINGTON — As President Bush weighs a stimulus package to jump-start the sagging economy, a debate has broken out inside the White House over how hard to push Congress to make Mr. Bush’s tax cuts permanent — a priority for the president, but one that Democrats say would kill the plan before it is even considered.

On one side, according to people familiar with the deliberations, is a powerful group of pragmatists, including Henry M. Paulson Jr., the treasury secretary; Joshua B. Bolten, the White House chief of staff; and Ed Gillespie, counselor to Mr. Bush. They argue that the need for a stimulus is urgent, but have expressed concern that the administration may have to scale back its ambitions for permanent tax cuts to get a package through Congress.

On the other side, these people say, are staunch economic conservatives like Keith B. Hennessey, the new director of Mr. Bush’s National Economic Council. They have reservations about the need for an economic rescue package and maintain that if the White House proposes one, it should use the plan as leverage to press lawmakers into making the tax cuts permanent.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/01/17/us/17bush.html?ex=1358312400&en=3c44c00f80b73609&ei=5088&partner=rssnyt&emc=rss

[bigtexxx]

From today's NYTs

Jr may hold stimulus package hostage as leverage to press congress to make tax cuts permanent.

--------------


WASHINGTON — As President Bush weighs a stimulus package to jump-start the sagging economy, a debate has broken out inside the White House over how hard to push Congress to make Mr. Bush’s tax cuts permanent — a priority for the president, but one that Democrats say would kill the plan before it is even considered.

On one side, according to people familiar with the deliberations, is a powerful group of pragmatists, including Henry M. Paulson Jr., the treasury secretary; Joshua B. Bolten, the White House chief of staff; and Ed Gillespie, counselor to Mr. Bush. They argue that the need for a stimulus is urgent, but have expressed concern that the administration may have to scale back its ambitions for permanent tax cuts to get a package through Congress.

On the other side, these people say, are staunch economic conservatives like Keith B. Hennessey, the new director of Mr. Bush’s National Economic Council. They have reservations about the need for an economic rescue package and maintain that if the White House proposes one, it should use the plan as leverage to press lawmakers into making the tax cuts permanent.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/01/17/us/17bush.html?ex=1358312400&en=3c44c00f80b73609&ei=5088&partner=rssnyt&emc=rss

It's retarded that the libpigs are even considering raising taxes right now. What planet are they living on???!? They're completely out of touch and just behaving out of spite (again). Children.

[SWTsig]

Deficit spending is not bad if the money is spent responsibly. If our net GDP outgrows our extra spending, then we would actually have a net gain from the spending because of the expanded tax base.

yeah, but that philosophy seemingly ignores inflation. if you decrease your revenue flows, you have to decrease your expenditures one way or the other.

bernake basically just stated that a few minutes ago.

[Major]

It's retarded that the libpigs are even considering raising taxes right now. What planet are they living on???!? They're completely out of touch and just behaving out of spite (again). Children.

I find it amusing that someone who pretends to know stuff about economics thinks that potentially raising taxes on relatively high income people 3 years from now is somehow going to have a significant impact on a recession being caused in large part due to consumer spending by low & middle income people.

[robbie380]

good video about what is going on with the market

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K6Ggb_Ozl4E

[Air Langhi]

They should tax the people making 100 of millions of dollars 80% and give us normal people a break.

[DonkeyMagic]

good video about what is going on with the market

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K6Ggb_Ozl4E


:D

so was the tree next to the tracks a metaphor for social security? :confused:

[DonkeyMagic]

They should tax the people making 100 of millions of dollars 80% and give us normal people a break.


then no one would make 100s of millions...just 99 million

[pippendagimp]

fools is gettin blasted out there rite now! ahahahahaha

they panickin they panickin.......they gonna have to return those gi joe w/ the kung fooo grips they bought lil jimmy for xmas! :D

[Azadre]

The tax cuts should only be extended to those making less than $200,000 in a household. The rich will not spend their savings, but instead just save it. The lower class would spend it, and that WOULD stimulate the economy. Otherwise, we are just witnessing a pyramid scheme.

[robbie380]

The tax cuts should only be extended to those making less than $200,000 in a household. The rich will not spend their savings, but instead just save it. The lower class would spend it, and that WOULD stimulate the economy. Otherwise, we are just witnessing a pyramid scheme.


that doesn't make sense to me at all. can you give me something that shows this to be true?

[SamFisher]

that doesn't make sense to me at all. can you give me something that shows this to be true?

See page 3.
http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&ct=res&cd=3&url=http%3A%2F%2Fdigital.library.unt.edu%2Fgovdocs%2Fcrs%2Fpermalink%2Fmeta-crs-5461%3A1&ei=zvmPR_7UL6K4erCxtIsO&usg=AFQjCNH0kP_ZHeAoJAYwIn0uf8m2kMsFAw&sig2=AfzZLxoBLLG0HMm5OAnAIQ

[glynch]

See page 3.
http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&ct=res&cd=3&url=http%3A%2F%2Fdigital.library.unt.edu%2Fgovdocs%2Fcrs%2Fpermalink%2Fmeta-crs-5461%3A1&ei=zvmPR_7UL6K4erCxtIsO&usg=AFQjCNH0kP_ZHeAoJAYwIn0uf8m2kMsFAw&sig2=AfzZLxoBLLG0HMm5OAnAIQ


Good find, Sam. Bernake said the same thing regarding a stimulus oriented toward the lower income groups. It is sure in accord with common sense that those who need to spend virtually every cent they get just to get by, save less than those who don't need to save every cent.

[Baqui99]

Pretty interesting time for me to be taking Financial Markets and Institutions this semester. My professor, Lewis Spellman (PhD Stanford 1971) is actually a pretty damn respected economist with some crazy credentials:
Assistant to the Chairman, President's Council of Economic Advisors, The White House
Economist, Federal Reserve Board

Today he predicted that the backlash from the mortgage crisis will spread globally, and we'll be seeing the effects of it even 10 years down the road. Like most other economists, he says the recession is coming very soon, and there is going to be a lot of litigation against the larger banks as well as those parties selling Credit Default Swaps. Of course a lot of the CDS shops are now bankrupt, so the rating agencies are going to bear the brunt of it since they gave a lot of them an investment grade ratings. Crazy stuff. Time to grab your ankles and take it I guess.

[SWTsig]

Pretty interesting time for me to be taking Financial Markets and Institutions this semester. My professor, Lewis Spellman (PhD Stanford 1971) is actually a pretty damn respected economist with some crazy credentials:
Assistant to the Chairman, President's Council of Economic Advisors, The White House
Economist, Federal Reserve Board

Today he predicted that the backlash from the mortgage crisis will spread globally, and we'll be seeing the effects of it even 10 years down the road. Like most other economists, he says the recession is coming very soon, and there is going to be a lot of litigation against the larger banks as well as those parties selling Credit Default Swaps. Of course a lot of the CDS shops are now bankrupt, so the rating agencies are going to bear the brunt of it since they gave a lot of them an investment grade ratings. Crazy stuff. Time to grab your ankles and take it I guess.

good thing i allocated all of my funds into pork bellies!

[SamFisher]

Pretty interesting time for me to be taking Financial Markets and Institutions this semester. My professor, Lewis Spellman (PhD Stanford 1971) is actually a pretty damn respected economist with some crazy credentials:
Assistant to the Chairman, President's Council of Economic Advisors, The White House
Economist, Federal Reserve Board

So he made the chairman copies. I don't get it.


Like most other economists, he says the recession is coming very soon, and there is going to be a lot of litigation against the larger banks as well as those parties selling Credit Default Swaps. Of course a lot of the CDS shops are now bankrupt, so the rating agencies are going to bear the brunt of it since they gave a lot of them an investment grade ratings..

There already is a fair amount of subrime litigation, both class action and derivative, and though there's been a slight uptick in overall class actions over the past year, it's not like the way it was in the 90's. The courts have made life for shareholder plaintiffs pretty difficult lately (thinking of Tellabs and Stoneridge from earlier this week).

[robbie380]

See page 3.
http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&ct=res&cd=3&url=http%3A%2F%2Fdigital.library.unt.edu%2Fgovdocs%2Fcrs%2Fpermalink%2Fmeta-crs-5461%3A1&ei=zvmPR_7UL6K4erCxtIsO&usg=AFQjCNH0kP_ZHeAoJAYwIn0uf8m2kMsFAw&sig2=AfzZLxoBLLG0HMm5OAnAIQ

interesting. thanks for the link. it was straight to the point and i guess it makes sense when i think about myself more. i have been thinking of myself in the spending scenario as a pretty unique case. i have gone from 20k to 100k to 500k in the past 3 years. i also have to pay my own taxes every quarter so i know the pain of writing massive checks to the u.s. treasury. so basically i already save a lot of money for taxes and i can't really see myself going out and buying something new now if i don't have to spend that money for taxes. i guess i just figured others weren't as tight with their money as they made more.

[jo mama]

dang - i lost money on my 401K for the first time in the 5 years ive had it going.

[danny317]

i dont see how a tax cut will stimulate the economy at this time.

if anything i think the low income and middle class will just save the money bc the worse is yet to come.

i think the best remedy is to sit tight and let the market correct itself. man its gonna be painful...

[Dubious]

Americans save? That's almost funny

http://www.bankrate.com/images_MRA/chart_0308.jpg


Most Americans consider their houses as their savings plan. That with social security and their company savings plans and that's about it. The average American family's credit card debt is something like $8,000 at an annual rate somewhere north of 13%

Thanks to the constant bombardment of temptation, like freaking Christmas, we are a nation of 4 year olds who can't finish unwrapping one pretty toy before we want another one.

I think most Americans would take their tax rebate and put a down payment on something ...and charge the rest.

If we do get another Fed decrease it might be worth it for a lot of people to refinance and pay the fees to get out of their ARM's. Not of course in Cali or Fla where they are underwater on their mortgages.

[rhadamanthus]

Americans save? That's almost funny

http://www.bankrate.com/images_MRA/chart_0308.jpg


Most Americans consider their houses as their savings plan. That with social security and their company savings plans and that's about it. The average American family's credit card debt is something like $8,000 at an annual rate somewhere north of 13%

Thanks to the constant bombardment of temptation, like freaking Christmas, we are a nation of 4 year olds who can't finish unwrapping one pretty toy before we want another one.

I think most Americans would take their tax rebate and put a down payment on something ...and charge the rest.

If we do get another Fed decrease it might be worth it for a lot of people to refinance and pay the fees to get out of their ARM's. Not of course in Cali or Fla where they are underwater on their mortgages.

This is so true. People are nuts. I used to work with a lot of very bright, and fairly young engineers. They made great money, and most were DINK-types with a gross take home way over 150k.

They were the dumbest people ever with money. One guy did not start his 401k until he was 30+. He has more toys than god, but hardly any savings.

Another couple bought a 4000+ sqft house. They have no kids, and two car payments.

And on and on. People are dumb, very dumb.

[F.D. Khan]

Americans save? That's almost funny

http://www.bankrate.com/images_MRA/chart_0308.jpg


Most Americans consider their houses as their savings plan. That with social security and their company savings plans and that's about it. The average American family's credit card debt is something like $8,000 at an annual rate somewhere north of 13%

Thanks to the constant bombardment of temptation, like freaking Christmas, we are a nation of 4 year olds who can't finish unwrapping one pretty toy before we want another one.

I think most Americans would take their tax rebate and put a down payment on something ...and charge the rest.

If we do get another Fed decrease it might be worth it for a lot of people to refinance and pay the fees to get out of their ARM's. Not of course in Cali or Fla where they are underwater on their mortgages.


Most personal savings surveys i've reviewed don't include 401k plans
or qualified retirement plans which make up most of Americas assets.

[glynch]

Today is a stock market holiday in the US. It looks like there has been a massive sell off in almost all the markets around the world, that are open today.

What if anything can we do on Tuesday morining, when folks claim there will be a big sell off on our market as a result of the world-wide sell off. I guess just hold.

[robbie380]

Today is a stock market holiday in the US. It looks like there has been a massive sell off in almost all the markets around the world, that are open today.

What if anything can we do on Tuesday morining, when folks claim there will be a big sell off on our market as a result of the world-wide sell off. I guess just hold.


there isn't much you can do now. the u.s. market has already priced a lot of stocks for recession. however, the sentiment versus projections is getting out of whack. it seems like some people feel as if the U.S. economy is dead and going into depression and that subprime and housing is going to kill every puppy and child born...however the data only seems to point to a mild recession at worst. i think that disconnect points to us getting closer to a bottom. i think we still have more bloodletting to come but we are getting closer.

[rhester]

It's called very rich people trying to move out without causing panic :D

[rhadamanthus]

there isn't much you can do now. the u.s. market has already priced a lot of stocks for recession. however, the sentiment versus projections is getting out of whack. it seems like some people feel as if the U.S. economy is dead and going into depression and that subprime and housing is going to kill every puppy and child born...however the data only seems to point to a mild recession at worst. i think that disconnect points to us getting closer to a bottom. i think we still have more bloodletting to come but we are getting closer.

I figure I'll hop back in once the market is a tad more stable. I know I should ride these things out, but I'd rather sit in a money market for 6 months than just watch my money vaporize electronically.

[Rule0001]

**** tax cuts, we need rate cuts mo fo.




And it looks like good ole MLK saved the day. It would suck balls if the market was open today.

[rodrick_98]

the $145 billion in tax relief proposed by bush, is that money pulled from one project in order to give the money back to the people, or are we just printing more money in order to give it to people? it would seem to me this will only help exacerbate the weakening of the dollar, and like dubious said most people will just use it in order to rack up more debt.

[Air Langhi]

It doesn't matter if stocks go up or down the rich will get richer and the middle class will suffer. We need to get rid of hedge funds and shorting stocks.

[robbie380]

It doesn't matter if stocks go up or down the rich will get richer and the middle class will suffer. We need to get rid of hedge funds and shorting stocks.

ummm.... :rolleyes:

let's just get rid of the rich too! kill them all!


but seriously....is your post sarcastic? is my sarcasm meter off?

[Dubious]

rob the rich
feed the poor
till there are
no rich no more

[Mr. Clutch]

Today is a stock market holiday in the US. It looks like there has been a massive sell off in almost all the markets around the world, that are open today.

What if anything can we do on Tuesday morining, when folks claim there will be a big sell off on our market as a result of the world-wide sell off. I guess just hold.

If you put your money in Treasuries or money market, it will be safe. I've got about 50% my investments there.

I have another piece in a gold fund, which has been doing well.

The rest of my investments are taking a beating. I thought about putting everything in bonds, but figured it was way too conservative for my age.

[Rule0001]

What the **** is up with half of these posts?

[Mr. Clutch]

What the **** is up with half of these posts?


What do you mean?

Wow:

PRICE CHG %CHG

Belgium * 3492.48 -202.65 -5.48%

U.K. * 5578.20 -323.50 -5.48%

France * 4744.45 -347.95 -6.83%

Germany * 6790.19 -523.98 -7.16%

Italy * 33903.00 -1850.00 -5.17%

Netherlands * 422.45 -27.63 -6.14%

Norway * 442.79 -30.84 -6.51%

S.Africa * 25423.69 -1228.97 -4.61%

Spain * 12625.80 -1029.60 -7.54%

Switzerland * 7287.14 -404.84 -5.26%


Sources: Dow Jones, Reuters* at market close

[whoisray]

DJ/S&P futures are down about 5%. Tomorrow could be ugly but it could be a short term bottom also

[Mr. Clutch]

Looks like commodities and emerging markets are getting hit because of US problems.

I think those will be good buying opportunities after this meltdown.

I would stay out of the US, there's just too much debt among banks and consumers.

[robbie380]

**** tax cuts, we need rate cuts mo fo.




And it looks like good ole MLK saved the day. It would suck balls if the market was open today.

we will be down 800 to 1000 tomorrow. if europe and asia get hit again it will be REALLY ugly at the open.

[Mr. Clutch]

DJ/S&P futures are down about 5%. Tomorrow could be ugly but it could be a short term bottom also

If we get a bounce later this week I'll definitely use it as a chance to get out of my riskier investments.

[bigtexxx]

we will be down 800 to 1000 tomorrow. if europe and asia get hit again it will be REALLY ugly at the open.

Typically the rest of the world follows the lead of the US markets, not vice versa. However, this thing today was a blood bath and may have spooked foreign investors who have money in US stocks to sell tomorrow.

[robbie380]

China down ANOTHER 7% as we speak. i can't imagine what europe is going to be like.

[yaoluv]

tommorow will be very interesting

These things get overhyped so much these days though.

I have a feeling it won't be that bad, slightly down

[Dream Sequence]

Tomorrow's going to be ugly. Very curious to see if the Fed will feel the need to step it up big to calm the markets or let it take its lumps.

[deepblue]

Tomorrow's going to be ugly. Very curious to see if the Fed will feel the need to step it up big to calm the markets or let it take its lumps.

They gotta be careful on this, cut the rate too much could really mess up USD.

[robbie380]

tommorow will be very interesting

These things get overhyped so much these days though.

I have a feeling it won't be that bad, slightly down


this selling is more than hype. this is people panicking out. china down 8%...nearly 2000 points. they still have the afternoon session to go so we will find out if they can put in any kind of bounce.

[ChrisBosh]

So much for the "decoupling” or the "emerging market" theories....... goes to show you how complicated and difficult to read the global economy has become….

I believe the U.S is still very much the heart of the global economy and reality just b*tch slapped the rest of the world.

Tomorrow is going to be a horrible day for the U.S market...book it.

2008’s going to be a difficult year for everyone.


The only good thing is oil prices are going to fall.

[robbie380]

So much for the "decoupling” or the "emerging market" theories....... goes to show you how complicated and difficult to read the global economy has become….

I believe the U.S is still very much the heart of the global economy and reality just b*tch slapped the rest of the world.

Tomorrow is going to be a horrible day for the U.S market...book it.

2008’s going to be a difficult year for everyone.


The only good thing is oil prices are going to fall.


the oil prices won't fall too much. i think a good amount of the u.s. recession fears have already been priced in to oil prices. further, things just aren't that bad. they certainly aren't great but perception is starting to disconnect from reality.

[Air Langhi]

the oil prices won't fall too much. i think a good amount of the u.s. recession fears have already been priced in to oil prices. further, things just aren't that bad. they certainly aren't great but perception is starting to disconnect from reality.

The prices are/were in a bubble state. I bet they go back to 70 or 60, or at least I hope so.

[robbie380]

The prices are/were in a bubble state. I bet they go back to 70 or 60, or at least I hope so.

not too much of a bubble state. some of the oil price strength is directly related to dollar weakness since oil is priced in dollars. if we continue to cut rates then that will buoy oil prices.

[robbie380]

u.s. futures currently halted on a limit down. man I need to get some sleep I gotta be at work in less than 5 hours. I just can't take my eyes off the carnage since I have never seen this kind of panic selling in my short 4 year trading career. hopefully, i'll have a good day trading this train wreck tomorrow....err later today.

[Mr. Brightside]

u.s. futures currently halted on a limit down. man I need to get some sleep I gotta be at work in less than 5 hours. I just can't take my eyes off the carnage since I have never seen this kind of panic selling in my short 4 year trading career. hopefully, i'll have a good day trading this train wreck tomorrow....err later today.

I don't think it will be that bad tommorrow as the futures indicate right now. I would be surprised if the market actually closed lower than 300-400 points. You know the Plunge Protection Team is getting its buy orders ready and the Fed is going to have an emergency rate cut before the end of the month. The American markets are the most level headed of any equity market, thus I don't think you'll see that panic as you are seeing in Asia and Europe.

The sad thing is I got stopped out of both Dollar Index futures (short) and Euro FX long last night. But when the Fed steps in and cuts 75 bps, you can bet the USD will take a short term licking at least again.

Just watch the VIX. I mentioned somewhere earlier in this thread last week, that fear hadn't set in completely since the beginning of the new year which would indicate more imminent downside. But today the VIX will spike and be finally set into panic mode, which should signal some short term buy signal.

[pippendagimp]

I don't think it will be that bad tommorrow as the futures indicate right now. I would be surprised if the market actually closed lower than 300-400 points. You know the Plunge Protection Team is getting its buy orders ready and the Fed is going to have an emergency rate cut before the end of the month. The American markets are the most level headed of any equity market, thus I don't think you'll see that panic as you are seeing in Asia and Europe.

The sad thing is I got stopped out of both Dollar Index futures (short) and Euro FX long last night. But when the Fed steps in and cuts 75 bps, you can bet the USD will take a short term licking at least again.

Just watch the VIX. I mentioned somewhere earlier in this thread last week, that fear hadn't set in completely since the beginning of the new year which would indicate more imminent downside. But today the VIX will spike and be finally set into panic mode, which should signal some short term buy signal.

I dunno this time......PPT has already been there just about every trading day the past 3 weeks to no avail......and tomorrow (Tuesday), it'll be like trying to stick your finger in a dike.....or is it dyke :cool: ....anyways, the circuit breakers start kicking in at Dow -1000 and they just close the whole damn thing altogether at Dow -2000......but then there's always wednesday.... :)

btw, my guess is that the 75 bps you're waiting for on the benjamins has already been mostly baked and factored in...although yeah we could see a quick drop after the annoucement...

[robbie380]

I don't think it will be that bad tommorrow as the futures indicate right now. I would be surprised if the market actually closed lower than 300-400 points. You know the Plunge Protection Team is getting its buy orders ready and the Fed is going to have an emergency rate cut before the end of the month. The American markets are the most level headed of any equity market, thus I don't think you'll see that panic as you are seeing in Asia and Europe.

The sad thing is I got stopped out of both Dollar Index futures (short) and Euro FX long last night. But when the Fed steps in and cuts 75 bps, you can bet the USD will take a short term licking at least again.

Just watch the VIX. I mentioned somewhere earlier in this thread last week, that fear hadn't set in completely since the beginning of the new year which would indicate more imminent downside. But today the VIX will spike and be finally set into panic mode, which should signal some short term buy signal.


agreed. i was looking for the vix to finally start spiking big like that last selloff day in august in order for us to actually put in a bottom. it seems like things aren't as bad for us today since europe recovered a ton of their opening losses.

also, there are reasons to be fundamentally buying. valuations just aren't that high...especially on stocks that have already been priced for recession. granted, a global sell off will spook people but the earnings so far haven't been bad. financials sucks but what else is new? there are a ton more earnings to come but things just don't look that horrible. i dunno...call me a random idiot for saying that.

[pippendagimp]

i dunno...call me a random idiot for saying that.

I agree things don't look so bad on the surface, fundamentally speaking......i'm just concerned/wondering if there's something the markets know that we don't.....-15% already for some of these Asian markets in just 2 trading days......when in doubt, listen to the markets - not your heart....

[Azadre]

I agree things don't look so bad on the surface, fundamentally speaking......i'm just concerned/wondering if there's something the markets know that we don't.....-15% already for some of these Asian markets in just 2 trading days......when in doubt, listen to the markets - not your heart....
That's what NPR was saying this morning.

[pippendagimp]

.75 bps already announced....all euro mkts bumped into green!

[KingCheetah]

minor adjustment...

[bigtexxx]

Great move on the rate cut. I think most folks expected something, but anything less than 75 basis points would have been further carnage. I've been primarily in cash since late December (more lucky than sage because I needed to free up cash for a number of large personal purchases), so I'm not sweating it too badly.

ChrisBosh - you're absolutely correct. The US is still the big dog on the block (and will be for the foreseeable future), and if the US is hurting, the emerging markets will get beetchslapped - probably to the tune of 1.5x what the US market gets... The Hang Seng in particular is incredibly volatile of late

[bigtexxx]

Dear Nancy Pelosi,

Get off your moronic azz and get the tax cuts passed immediately.

Sincerely,

The World

[KingCheetah]

We elect a democratic congress and look what happens ~ instant recession.

[Mr. Brightside]

Interesting the US Dollar hasn't sold off more, and neither has the 10 Year Note fallen from its highs. The 10 Year still up over 117 shows alot of worry is still around despite the cuts.

[rhester]

Winter is here. The little squirrels look to their hoard of nuts to see them through the cold times. But what's this? The sorry squirrels of North America hunt around…where are the nuts? Uh oh…they forgot to put any away!

U.S. consumers enter a recession in the worst shape ever. It's a richer world than it was in the '30s. There's no danger of starving. We don't imagine that people will have to stand in line to get a bowl of soup. But when it comes to money…never have so many people owed so much to so many. And when the creditors try to collect - there's going to be Hell to pay.

On Friday, the Dow fell another 59 points…ending a very depressing week for stock market investors.

"What is going on?" investors ask themselves. "Many investors will begin the week asking whether they need to add worries about an equity bear market to their fears of economic recession," explains the International Herald Tribune.

Nobody knows anything…so let us help the clueless investor: Yes. Worry about a bear market. Because it is almost surely here.

The Russell 200 Index, a gauge of mainly smaller U.S. companies, is already down more than 20%. The mid-cap FTSE 250 in Britain is down more than 20%. And the Japanese index - the Nikkei 225 - is down 24% since its high in July. The S&P 500 is only off 16% - but it's catching up.

From California, we learn that the jobless rate has jumped to over 6%. Oh, those poor little squirrels. Nothing in the nut-bin. And now, the nuts on the ground seem to have disappeared.

You'll recall the argument we entertained a couple of years ago. "The boom is a fraud; it's making people poorer," said we. "No, it's real…people are getting richer," said our opponents. Something grand and barely comprehensible had happened, they claimed. People had gotten so smart that the old rules no longer applied. You no longer needed to save, for example, because modern information technology and sophisticated financial instruments could provide growth and protection without savings. Besides, the Asians were saving more than enough for the whole world…and, as for a rainy day, what are credit cards for?

Well, now this New Era is being tested. Now we're going to find out who was right.

But why pretend? We already know the answer. We were right; our opponents were wrong. New Eras don't come along very often, not in economics. Bet against them and you are almost sure to win.

Why? Because the rules don't change. It's the circumstances that change - in ways the rules dictate… Which brings us back to the nuts and the squirrels.

The rules tell us that if you spend more than you earn you must get poorer. The difference between spendings and earnings is subtracted from your net worth. While the spending spree was going on, it didn't seem to most Americans that they were really getting poorer. They thought they were getting richer, mainly because their houses were going up in price.

But there is nothing like a hanging to focus a man's attention. Last year, house prices went down about 10%. Suddenly, the average homeowner finds himself dangling at the end of a rope…and the last five years flash before him with crushing clarity: He sees that he spent too much. He sees that he bought more house than he could afford. He sees that his earnings have actually gone down in real terms…while his cost of living has gone up. In short, he sees that he's been had.

Even newspaper columnists are beginning to get the picture. Americans need to "get back to saving rather than leveraging assets in a phony consumption boom," writes Roger Cohen in the International Herald Tribune.

Naturally, this insight is making its way onto the political stage. A few weeks ago, the war in Iraq was Americans' number one concern. Now, "It's the economy, stupid." The trouble is, the economy is something that neither the candidates, nor the man who currently lays his head on the White House pillow, know anything about. President Bush is pushing a plan to give the country a "shot in the arm" - at a cost of $150 billion. If Congress would just get behind this thing, he says, we could have rebate checks in the mail in just a few weeks.

Our president misses the point. He, like all the White House hopefuls, wants to keep the phony boom alive - in the worst possible way, by providing more "stimulus" to consumers…that is, by helping them spend even more money they haven't got on things they don't really need. What this perverse economy really needs is not a shot in the arm, but a shot in the head.

Meanwhile, Mitt Romney is proposing a $20 billion bailout of Detroit - as if what Motown, smack dab in the richest auto market in the world, needed all along was more money.

And Rudolph Guiliani, asked in October whether he thought a recession might be coming, reminded listeners that he still believes in the promise of the New Era. What with America's modern, sophisticated market - and the freedom to do any damned thing it wants - "the sky's the limit."

Well, yes…the sky's the limit. Whether you are building something up…or blowing it up.

*** There is much disagreement among analysts and commentators: will there be a recession…how bad will it be? But one thing that all agree on is that, "inherent U.S. vitality remains enormous," and that the U.S. economy will "bounce back."

Oh yeah?

When everyone thinks the same thing, no one is thinking at all. And everyone now seems to think that whatever is ailing the United States, it will pass. We disagree.

The rules don't change. Instead, the rules determine how circumstances change. And circumstances can change for a very, very long time.

The Athenians have been waiting 2,300 years for their empire to "bounce back." The Egyptians have been waiting even longer. And the Seleucids? The Mongols? The Incas? The Romans? Rome is a nice city but the Rome of Berlusconi is hardly the Rome of Augustus. The city never bounced back. And the list of empires that never bounced back is as long as the list of empires. Once they are history, they are history.

When you spend more than you can afford, you get poorer. That's the rule. So, it should come as no surprise that Americans are getting poorer…though they are just beginning to realize it. Now, when they need money…they have to turn to foreigners…to their imperial competitors.

In the last couple of weeks, some of America's biggest financial firms have turned to Asians for multi-billion-dollar infusions. The Asians - who've been following the rules - working…saving - now have trillions to put to work. The Gulf States, too, have trillions in oil revenues. In the Gulf, they're building new cities. In Asia, they're building new industries.

And in America?

The foreigners are putting their money to work - buying up key industries.

"For much of the world, the US is now on sale at discount prices," says the International Herald Tribune. "Last year, foreign investors poured a record $414 billion into securing stakes in US companies, factories and other properties through private deals and purchases of publicly traded stock."

We hasten to add that we're not agin' it. Politicians will rant and rave about the "loss of US capital and industries." But it's a little late for complaining. The loss has been going on for a long, long time. As Americans spent more than they had, the foreigners built up credits. Now, they're cashing them in. What else can they do? And what would you expect? The falling dollar has reduced Americans' earnings…and it has cut prices on their assets, too. Now, people with money are taking advantage of the situation.

If you have a factory or a business…you might consider selling to the top bidder - probably a foreigner. If you have no business to sell, well, maybe you can shine the foreigners' shoes.

There's no denying what it all means…America's edge in the world is slipping away. Americans are getting poorer - relative to others. This is an adjustment that probably won't stop anytime soon. The United States will probably never bounce back to the heights it enjoyed in the '80s and '90s.

*** And here's something else to worry about. Bill Gross, head of PIMCO, the world's biggest bond fund, calls it the "shadow banking system." He's referring to the way money and credit fly around the globe, courtesy of the very same "sophisticated" and "free" institutions that created such prosperity for so many people in the financial industry.

Banks recognize that not all their loans will be repaid. They operate on margins of safety, with reserves set aside for when things go wrong. But in the worlds of swaps, hedge funds and derivatives…slick operators can invest billions with no margins of safety…and no reserves. The result, Gross says, could be catastrophic:

"But today's banking system, as pointed out in recent Investment Outlooks , has morphed into something entirely different and inherently more risky. Our modern shadow banking system craftily dodges the reserve requirements of traditional institutions and promotes a chain letter, pyramid scheme of leverage, based in many cases on no reserve cushion whatsoever. Financial derivatives of all descriptions are involved but credit default swaps (CDS) are perhaps the most egregious offenders. While margin does flow periodically to balance both party's accounts, the conduits that hold CDS contracts are in effect non-regulated banks, much like their hedge fund brethren, with no requirements to hold reserves against a significant 'black swan' run that might break them.

"According to the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), CDS totaling $43 trillion were outstanding at year end 2007, more than half the size of the entire asset base of the global banking system. Total derivatives amount to over $500 trillion, many of them finding their way onto the balance sheets of SIVs, CDOs and other conduits of their ilk comprising the Frankensteinian levered body of shadow banks."

link (http://www.dailyreckoning.com/)

[bigtexxx]

Interesting the US Dollar hasn't sold off more, and neither has the 10 Year Note fallen from its highs. The 10 Year still up over 117 shows alot of worry is still around despite the cuts.

Probably because other countries will likely need to trim their interest rates, as well. It's all relative - if the US bonds are returning less than another countries, money will flow to the higher risk adjusted rate of return. Europe and Japan, in particular, have no desire to see their currency appreciate versus the dollar.

[bigtexxx]

We elect a democratic congress and look what happens ~ instant recession.

If you really want to look at a historical point of view, look to the source: Clinton's recession that he dumped on W's doorstep led to the extreme cutting of interest rates, which ultimately played a large role in today's credit crisis after those rates crept back up and folks couldn't pay their increased rates.

[rhester]

Probably because other countries will likely need to trim their interest rates, as well. It's all relative - if the US bonds are returning less than another countries, money will flow to the higher risk adjusted rate of return. Europe and Japan, in particular, have no desire to see their currency appreciate versus the dollar.

Well if oil continues to trade in dollars Europe and Japan may not privately cry too loud about wooping up on the greenback. :)

[Rule0001]

Bernanke kicks the **** ass. Huge move today.

[rhester]

If you really want to look at a historical point of view, look to the source: Clinton's recession that he dumped on W's doorstep led to the extreme cutting of interest rates, which ultimately played a large role in today's credit crisis after those rates crept back up and folks couldn't pay their increased rates.

The sweet thing about a central bank is it can work that trick both ways.
Cutting interest rates cause credit bubbles the roots of every recession.
And once the potential of a 'recession' rears its head what do we do? Cut interest rates.

The Fed only raises rates when it gets scary and they need some harsh reality to set in.

You can only scare people so many times though....

Fundementally easy credit is not backed by industrial production or productivity, it is backed by money expansion so that those who make compound interest can rake in huge profits and then bail.

We must have some sort of correction eventually to the debt crisis. Hopefully the landing will be on a runway with landing gear in place.

Keeping interest rates up and drastically reducing borrowing will hurt, maybe even cause profuse bleeding; but it might just save this thing also.

The rate of debt and credit expansion and size of money supply is just getting to heavy for the GDP.

It's a good thing we have a great army, that helps, and if we can keep oil trading in dollars we have a fighting chance (pun intended)

But how much new industry is emerging in the US pushing exports and employment through the roof?

What are the levels for the avg. US family of cash liquidity and personal savings?

This is some mighty thin financial ice we are entering and the weather is warming up. :eek:

[bigtexxx]

Well if oil continues to trade in dollars Europe and Japan may not privately cry too loud about wooping up on the greenback. :)

Good grief. Please do a search on my posts and educate yourself about how the fact that oil trades in dollars doesn't impact the price of oil very much. I'm sick of all the ignorance on this topic on the board.

[rhester]

Good grief. Please do a search on my posts and educate yourself about how the fact that oil trades in dollars doesn't impact the price of oil very much. I'm sick of all the ignorance on this topic on the board.

It has little affect if any on the price of oil but it impacts the strength of the dollar internationally. Please read the post. It is nice that other currencies look to the dollar, as long as oil is traded in dollars there is a good reason for it to be strong.

This thing is not that complicated in macro terms-

We are seeing in the Market a reaction to the debt/credit crisis- we are pushing the envelop on debt... and making more credit easy with lower rates or increasing consumer spending with rebates won't fix the fundementals.

Bigtexx- I agree with your logic, but the last nation with a plan to trade oil in something other than dollars has about 150,000 US troops stationed.

I'm not saying that oil's price has anything to do with the strength of the dollar. I am saying that in the short term a little beating up on the greenback does something for those who are importing all their oil. ;)

[Azadre]

This sucks... a 400 point sell-off in the Dow Jones today. I am just happy that I got out late November. Anyone want to predict what we end up at when the dust settles?

[insane man]

Dear Nancy Pelosi,

Get off your moronic azz and get the tax cuts passed immediately.

Sincerely,

The World

its not supposed to be a tax cut but a stimulus package. which means giving money to rich people doesn't help. the democrats better draw a line in the sand.

[weslinder]

Good grief. Please do a search on my posts and educate yourself about how the fact that oil trades in dollars doesn't impact the price of oil very much. I'm sick of all the ignorance on this topic on the board.

Oh, really?

http://s.wsj.net/public/resources/images/ED-AG911_1oilgo_20080103221647.gif

[bigtexxx]

Oh, really?

http://s.wsj.net/public/resources/images/ED-AG911_1oilgo_20080103221647.gif

Do the search

[weslinder]

Do the search

I've worked in oil. I've had many meetings with people with doctorates in petroleum economics. (You can get some bizarre degrees in Venezuela.) I believe I know more about oil pricing than you do.

[bigtexxx]

I've worked in oil. I've had many meetings with people with doctorates in petroleum economics. (You can get some bizarre degrees in Venezuela.) I believe I know more about oil pricing than you do.

Then you've wasted your time spent working in that industry, because you don't know what you're talking about. Have a nice day.

[Lil Pun]

Wow, the fed slashes the rate to 3.5%. Does this mean I can get some excellent financing for say like a house or car?

[robbie380]

Good grief. Please do a search on my posts and educate yourself about how the fact that oil trades in dollars doesn't impact the price of oil very much. I'm sick of all the ignorance on this topic on the board.


yeah i remember the discussion and it proved my point that declining dollar props up oil prices. it showed for like a 3 month period oil priced in dollars was 7% higher than if it were priced in an average of euros, yen, and canadian dollars. get over yourself and realize you were wrong and the link you posted only proved you wrong.

[bigtexxx]

yeah i remember the discussion and it proved my point that declining dollar props up oil prices. it showed for like a 3 month period oil priced in dollars was 7% higher than if it were priced in an average of euros, yen, and canadian dollars. get over yourself and realize you were wrong and the link you posted only proved you wrong.

Nope. You didn't understand the point. It went right over your head. The dollar only accounted for a small piece of the oil price increase.

[bigtexxx]

Looks like the Dow and Nasdaq are bouncing back now. Dow is down 1.8% (218 points) and the Nasdaq is down 2.5%. Nothing like what was seen in Asia or Europe yesterday. If congress can put together a decent stimulus package, I think we'll be good to go. I'm about to move a lot of my portfolio back into stocks

[Dubious]

I'm sitting here filling out my Enron litigation forms having March of 2000 flash backs.

It ain't that but it is a strange day for me.



Robbie,

What do you think the move will be when the program trades kick in this afternoon?

[robbie380]

no clue on the afternoon trading yet. seems like we should get some profit taking from here.

[robbie380]

Nope. You didn't understand the point. It went right over your head. The dollar only accounted for a small piece of the oil price increase.


7% over other currencies in 3 months is small?

[robbie380]

Looks like the Dow and Nasdaq are bouncing back now. Dow is down 1.8% (218 points) and the Nasdaq is down 2.5%. Nothing like what was seen in Asia or Europe yesterday. If congress can put together a decent stimulus package, I think we'll be good to go. I'm about to move a lot of my portfolio back into stocks


i agree. things just aren't that bad. companies reporting today haven't seen all the recessionary problems that the street is worried about. i added in to my KBR in my personal account near the open. so many insane opens today. people just panicked. i am up a lot but man there was sooooo much opportunity it was sick.

[No Worries]

If you really want to look at a historical point of view, look to the source: Clinton's recession that he dumped on W's doorstep led to the extreme cutting of interest rates, which ultimately played a large role in today's credit crisis after those rates crept back up and folks couldn't pay their increased rates.
Another fact free post.

Recession started after Bush took office. Bush spent the first 4 weeks in office bad mouthing the economy to get his tax cuts passed. And you blame Clinton. Go figure.

The extreme rate cutting was in response to 911. Historical. Fact.

[bigtexxx]

Another fact free post.

Recession started after Bush took office. Bush spent the first 4 weeks in office bad mouthing the economy to get his tax cuts passed. And you blame Clinton. Go figure.

The extreme rate cutting was in response to 911. Historical. Fact.

LOL a little slow this morning, No Worries? As KingCheetah pointed out, are you sure you can blame someone who inherits a recession? Put your thinking cap on, young man

[No Worries]

LOL a little slow this morning, No Worries? As KingCheetah pointed out, are you sure you can blame someone who inherits a recession? Put your thinking cap on, young man
Keep your head buried in the sand, foolish man.

[robbie380]

Good grief. Please do a search on my posts and educate yourself about how the fact that oil trades in dollars doesn't impact the price of oil very much. I'm sick of all the ignorance on this topic on the board.

http://www.econbrowser.com/archives/2007/11/oil_and_the_dol.html#more

http://img518.imageshack.us/img518/5971/poilcurrenciesnov07vr0.th.png (http://img518.imageshack.us/my.php?image=poilcurrenciesnov07vr0.png)

[insane man]

LOL a little slow this morning, No Worries? As KingCheetah pointed out, are you sure you can blame someone who inherits a recession? Put your thinking cap on, young man

rate cut was due to 9/11 as was said. what other lies do you want to come up with today?

[bigtexxx]

rate cut was due to 9/11 as was said. what other lies do you want to come up with today?

we were falling way before 9/11. Were you an adult when this happened?

[rhadamanthus]

Bigtexxx makes an economic fool of himself again. I love these threads.

I'm in the same boat as weslinder by the way. I work with people who do nothing but study oil economics all day.

[bigtexxx]

I work with people who do nothing but study oil economics all day.

Do you bring them coffee along with their newspaper in the morning? I think you might work in my office. I'm going to run down to your desk right now and check for cf.net!

[rhadamanthus]

Do you bring them coffee along with their newspaper in the morning? I think you might work in my office. I'm going to run down to your desk right now and check for cf.net!

Nice. You get made the fool and your response is twofold:

1) "Look for my previous smart posts" (which have been debunked already)

and

2) insults


Makes you look sharp.

[bigtexxx]

Nice. You get made the fool and your response is twofold:

1) "Look for my previous smart posts" (which have been debunked already)

and

2) insults


Makes you look sharp.

Which part of my previous analysis was proven wrong? Robbie and I agree, but to varying degrees.

By the way - my biggest investments are up today. How are yours doing, my friend? BWAAAHAHAHAHAHAHA

[danny317]

please say it...

(im referring to the "BRAH" that texx loves to throw in at the end of his posts when he realizes that his points of argument have been debunked and he has nothing intelligent to add to the conversation so he resorts to name calling)

[robbie380]

Which part of my previous analysis was proven wrong? Robbie and I agree, but to varying degrees.

By the way - my biggest investments are up today. How are yours doing, my friend? BWAAAHAHAHAHAHAHA


is 7% in 3 months insignificant? i don't think it is. also, i am only using that time period because that is what you are using as your proof that oil prices aren't really effected by the dollar.

and don't talk about money cause it is no contest today ;)

[DonkeyMagic]

Nice. You get made the fool and your response is twofold:

1) "Look for my previous smart posts" (which have been debunked already)

and

2) insults


Makes you look sharp.


yeah, what a jerk! He totally stole your debating strategy !


:D

[rhadamanthus]

yeah, what a jerk! He totally stole your debating strategy !


:D

Hey! I don't always debate like that.



Poophead. :p