How much money and how many free agents do we need to win in 08?

[redgoose]

I'm starting this thread because from my simple calculations i think we would need to spend close to 150 million dollars in payroll during the off season to win next year. I've said it many times and just about everyone has disagreed and even bashed me everytime i brought it up. :( I see no immediate farm system help for next year and free agent pitchers broke the bank last year. :eek:

So Ausmus, Biggio, Lamb, and Loretta should come off the books. To keep Loretta we'll have to give him a nice raise and he might leave for a lesser amount of money just to become an everyday player that doesn't have to sit behind Everett watching him ground out. :rolleyes: Will Ausmus and Biggio's salary even be enough to resign Jason Jennings even though he's been bad? If so, we've already used their salaries just to keep a pitcher and not improve the team at all. :p

I'd like to hear your realistic theories on how we will be a playoff team next year w/o spending close to 150 million dollars. :confused: Please keep the unrealistic trade proposals out of this thread. For instance, Johan Santana does seem to want out of Minny, too bad he used to be our property. :mad: Jason Lane and Wandy wouldn't cut it. Neither would throwing in Troy Patton. ;)

So lets hear it from all you future GM's that refused to rebuild and said we didn't need to spend 150 million to compete in 2008!!!

[Refman]

To me, it depends on a couple of things:

1. Will the Astros play Bruntlett as SS next year? Based on his .286 average and decent defense, I sure would.

2. Will they give Scott and his .833 OPS the RF job? I would. His OPS is right about the MLB average for that position. One also never knows how Scott will improve based on consistent playing time and experience.

3. If you commit to Bruntlett at SS, what can you get in an Adam Everett trade? Maybe not much, but maybe a young C.

If you want a good shot to win next year, you need via free agency a catcher who can hit for average, if not power and one decent SP. You can relegate Woody to the pen.

Lineup:
1B Berkman
2B Burke/Bruntlett/Wigginton
SS Bruntlett/Everett (if not traded)
3B Wigginton/Lamb
C Get via FA
LF Lee
CF Pence
RF Scott

SP Oswalt
SP Get via FA
SP Backe
SP Sampson
SP Wandy

In relief you have Lidge, Qualls, Woody, Miller, and Albers.

We will probably resign Jennings because after his performance, you can probably get him on the cheap. If his performance this year was an aberration due to his yet unhealed injury, he could put it back together next year and do well. You could slide him into the rotation and slide either Wandy or Sampson out.

For a decent offensive C and a middle of the rotation SP, you probably only have to spend $20MM or so in FA. Out $95MM payroll this year plus $20MM totals $115MM in total payroll next year.

I really think that since Scott and Bruntlett have started to come into their own, they could be viable solutions from iside the organization.

[Mr. Clutch]

^^ That team is similar to this year's team, and that is not a good thing.

[Hammer755]

There's no way that Bruntlett should be playing every day. His offense is only slightly better than Everett's, and he's nowhere near the defender. I love his versatility, but it's really the only reason he has a big league job.

[Zac D]

There's no way that Bruntlett should be playing every day. His offense is only slightly better than Everett's, and he's nowhere near the defender. I love his versatility, but it's really the only reason he has a big league job.

Yeah. "Solution" is the wrong word for starting Bruntlett at shortstop, because for better (which is my opinion) or for worse, it seems the org. is committed to keeping Adam there full-time.

[redgoose]

We need a star pitcher for sure. Plus a star bat or two. Then maybe resign Loretta to play SS full time and resign Lamb for protection. Pudge could be a free agent catcher who might hit 20 homeruns, but could cost 10 million. Zambrano is looking for Zito type money. He'd probably cost a minimum of 15 million a year. It would be nice to move Pence to RF and sign a speedy contact hitter. Adam Dunn could be a FA we could snag for a possible hometown discount, but he is a strike out machine. Andruw Jones looks like he won't be resigned and can play CF, but is he washed up?

I'm still seeing 50 million easy if we want to contend next year. No Bruntlett, Everett, Lane, etc is gonna help us make a turn around.

Here's a list of 2008 free agents and what they're making now, including what kind of options they have. There's alot more good free agents then i thought. However, if we don't have 3 Ace type pitchers, i really think we need to go havey on the offense, like most of the Astros teams that would get us to the playoffs only to get knocked out by the Braves in the first round. :( However, we were usually favored to beat them...lol The Killer Bees didn't help much back then in the playoffs.

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2007/03/2008_mlb_free_a.html

[Refman]

There's no way that Bruntlett should be playing every day. His offense is only slightly better than Everett's, and he's nowhere near the defender. I love his versatility, but it's really the only reason he has a big league job.
I agree to the extent that 40 to 50 point difference on a batting average is only slightly better.

[TMac640]

Zambrano can give us the ol' hometown discount? Maybe?



after all, he's from houston, lololololololol

[Hammer755]

I agree to the extent that 40 to 50 point difference on a batting average is only slightly better.

Putting aside the fact that batting average alone is an insufficient means to compare value, Bruntlett is a career 0.260 hitter while Everett is at 0.250.

So you're really willing to put your support behind Bruntlett based on 77 AB this year and call him a .286 hitter? In fact, he was batting 0.260 in 2007 before last night. So you're essentially willing to put all your eggs in Bruntlett's basket because of a single 3-hit game.

[weslinder]

Get a catcher, two legit starters, and at least one more middle relief pitcher. However much money that takes. I'm not holding my breath.

[weslinder]

Then maybe resign Loretta to play SS full time...

Are you joking, or do you expect the Astros' pitchers to strike out everyone next year?

[PippenAintEZ]

I believe the answer is quite simple, yet highly unlikely. We just need to sign one main guy, and that would be Big Z, Carlos Zambrano. I am not a cubs fan at all, but this guy is a beast, and sure he would probably get more than $100, especially after zito stole all that money from the giants. Then adding a little bullpen help never hurts. But our rotation would be Roy O, Zambrano, hopefully a healthy Backe, Wandy/Sampson/Jennings, and we could even throw in Patton for the fifth spot. I don't think that's a bad rotation at all. But as I said, this is probably all wishful thinking.

[DOMINATOR]

zambrano is going to be a cub

[MadMax]

I agree to the extent that 40 to 50 point difference on a batting average is only slightly better.

eric bruntlett isn't a .280+ hitter. not over any long term stretch. and he's nowhere near what AE is in the field.

[MadMax]

I believe the answer is quite simple, yet highly unlikely. We just need to sign one main guy, and that would be Big Z, Carlos Zambrano. I am not a cubs fan at all, but this guy is a beast, and sure he would probably get more than $100, especially after zito stole all that money from the giants. Then adding a little bullpen help never hurts. But our rotation would be Roy O, Zambrano, hopefully a healthy Backe, Wandy/Sampson/Jennings, and we could even throw in Patton for the fifth spot. I don't think that's a bad rotation at all. But as I said, this is probably all wishful thinking.

i'd have a real hard time paying ANY pitcher that kind of money.

[BrieflySpeaking]

we just need some pitching, starting and bullpen...to win.

[DaDakota]

we just need some pitching, starting and bullpen...to win.

I concur sir !

DD

[Akhorahil]

I did the math, for myself, a long time ago. Thankfully I still have the notebook. It maybe a little long winded. Sorry.

I say 120 million. Roughly 20 million is going out in the various players that are either going to retire or are free agents at the end of the year. The team salary is at 83.8 million. If you spend 150 million next season, the Astros would have spent around 85 million in the offseason. That's pretty crazy if you asked me. At 120 million you got around 56 million. That's on raises in contract players, arbitration players, and on free agents. Berkman, Oswalt, and Woody are all going to make the same next season as last season. Only Lee has a raise on his contract, and it's only 1 million raise. He then gets a 6.5 million dollar raise the year after and it stays like that from then on.

So set off 3 million for Lee. 53 million
Arbitration players, just a wild worst case guess. 15 million. Now your at 38 million to spend in FA.

We all know the needs. It's the order of the needs that is debatable. I figure our immediate needs are SP, RP, RP, C (in no order). Now you may include 3rd and RF, but those arn't needs. Those are upgrades.

Now I have that needs list after bringing back T. Miller to be the lefty specialist. LH opponents are hitting .235 against him. That's just fine for a lefty specialist. As much as I like McLemore, he just doesn't have the breaking stuff that you'd want in that role. He's more of a middle reliever/future setup guy. Besides, Miller isn't going to cost you that much as it is. At most I figure 2 million. So you still have 36 million to work with in the FA market on those needs.

So if your working with 120 million go spend 36 million in the FA market. If your going with 150 million, I think that's insane, but go spend 66 million in the FA market... If you can.

[Akhorahil]

we just need some pitching, starting and bullpen...to win.

I agree as well.

[Refman]

eric bruntlett isn't a .280+ hitter. not over any long term stretch. and he's nowhere near what AE is in the field.
We don't know what Bruntlett will be if given consistent PT. He has been given some consistent PT recently, and has been swinging the bat well recently.

[redgoose]

Are you joking, or do you expect the Astros' pitchers to strike out everyone next year?

Not nearly every ball gets hit to the SS. Not every ball that could get past Loretta compared to Everett means the player is going to score a run. On average it would take an extra 2 hits to get that runner home. Since a ground ball past the SS is usually only a single. I'd rather have someone that could score and drive in more runs than someone who could possibly save 10 runs over the course of a season. I'm guessing on the saving 10 runs since that can't be proved.

Exactly how many runs do you think Everett saves over a full season, not hits? Then compare that to how many runs Loretta could score and drive in. Which player makes the biggest difference? I'd go with Loretta.

[redgoose]

I did the math, for myself, a long time ago. Thankfully I still have the notebook. It maybe a little long winded. Sorry.

I say 120 million. Roughly 20 million is going out in the various players that are either going to retire or are free agents at the end of the year. The team salary is at 83.8 million. If you spend 150 million next season, the Astros would have spent around 85 million in the offseason. That's pretty crazy if you asked me. At 120 million you got around 56 million. That's on raises in contract players, arbitration players, and on free agents. Berkman, Oswalt, and Woody are all going to make the same next season as last season. Only Lee has a raise on his contract, and it's only 1 million raise. He then gets a 6.5 million dollar raise the year after and it stays like that from then on.

So set off 3 million for Lee. 53 million
Arbitration players, just a wild worst case guess. 15 million. Now your at 38 million to spend in FA.

We all know the needs. It's the order of the needs that is debatable. I figure our immediate needs are SP, RP, RP, C (in no order). Now you may include 3rd and RF, but those arn't needs. Those are upgrades.

Now I have that needs list after bringing back T. Miller to be the lefty specialist. LH opponents are hitting .235 against him. That's just fine for a lefty specialist. As much as I like McLemore, he just doesn't have the breaking stuff that you'd want in that role. He's more of a middle reliever/future setup guy. Besides, Miller isn't going to cost you that much as it is. At most I figure 2 million. So you still have 36 million to work with in the FA market on those needs.

So if your working with 120 million go spend 36 million in the FA market. If your going with 150 million, I think that's insane, but go spend 66 million in the FA market... If you can.

Very good info.

I have no idea what Jennings would resign for, especially after what pitchers got last off season. He's been so up and mostly down this year, but has a decent track record in Colorado, eats up innings, and can almost always give you a chance to win for any team with a good offense. Which worries me he could get 10 million offered to him from a variety of teams. We definantly need another star starting pitcher get to and go anywhere in the playoffs. That's huge money especially when combined with resigning Jennings. The Astros rarely spend much money on the bullpen, and Lidge, in my arbitration estimates, will probably get 6 million no matter what, so he better be closing next year.

I think it would be way easier to find an slugging 3B, CF (move Pence to RF), or RF player than a catcher. Signing an average hitting catcher is already an upgrade at that position offensive wise. We still need another big bat. I'd say 2 bats if we stick with Everett in the lineup.

So your right, maybe not 150 million, but it will be the most expensive off season in Astros history if Drayton really wants to win. Since he decided no to have a fire sale, he needs to put his check book where is mouth is. If our lineup looks similiar to this year's, there is no hope.

[br0ken_shad0w]

Exactly how many runs do you think Everett saves over a full season, not hits? Then compare that to how many runs Loretta could score and drive in. Which player makes the biggest difference? I'd go with Loretta.

Except Loretta can put in another position like 2B and be an upgrade while still keeping the good fielding of Everett. Everett is a 7-8 hitter and there are other positions that we need better production at than at shortstop.

[MadMax]

We don't know what Bruntlett will be if given consistent PT. He has been given some consistent PT recently, and has been swinging the bat well recently.

he's gotten regular AB's in intervals. he has about 425 career AB's.

but the bottom line is it takes a lot more than eric bruntlett for me to want to remove the best defensive SS in the game from the lineup. i'd be looking other places to improve offense first...places where offense is more expected. like RF and 3B, for example.

[weslinder]

Not nearly every ball gets hit to the SS. Not every ball that could get past Loretta compared to Everett means the player is going to score a run. On average it would take an extra 2 hits to get that runner home. Since a ground ball past the SS is usually only a single. I'd rather have someone that could score and drive in more runs than someone who could possibly save 10 runs over the course of a season. I'm guessing on the saving 10 runs since that can't be proved.

Exactly how many runs do you think Everett saves over a full season, not hits? Then compare that to how many runs Loretta could score and drive in. Which player makes the biggest difference? I'd go with Loretta.

Not a single MLB manager would agree with you. You just don't go from the best defensive shortstop (http://sports.espn.go.com/mlbhist/stats/fielding?groupId=9&season=2006&seasonType=2&split=82&sortOrder=true&sortColumn=zoneRating&qualified=1) in baseball to a converted second baseman that would be the worst defensive shortstop (http://sports.espn.go.com/mlbhist/stats/fielding?groupId=9&sortColumn=zoneRating&sortOrder=true&split=82&qualified=0&season=2007&seasonType=2) in baseball, especially if you have a bunch of groundball pitchers. The difference in hitting doesn't matter And yes, the difference in runs defensively between Everett and Loretta would far exceed the difference in runs offensively between them.

[DaDakota]

I don't think GM's outside of Houston are all that enamored with Adam Everett.....

Otherwise we would be seeing tons of teams playing defensive minded SS.....

Unless Everett can hit .260+ I don't think he should be playing every day.

DD

[MaxwellsTemper]

Everett isn't going anywhere, and he'll be starting SS next year. Real baseball isn't fantasy baseball, you don't just plug in people with the highest OPS.

Bruntlett is a great utility player to have around, and I love him and his versatility. But don't make him out to be something he's not either.

[Little_Scott]

Not nearly every ball gets hit to the SS. Not every ball that could get past Loretta compared to Everett means the player is going to score a run. On average it would take an extra 2 hits to get that runner home. Since a ground ball past the SS is usually only a single. I'd rather have someone that could score and drive in more runs than someone who could possibly save 10 runs over the course of a season. I'm guessing on the saving 10 runs since that can't be proved.

Exactly how many runs do you think Everett saves over a full season, not hits? Then compare that to how many runs Loretta could score and drive in. Which player makes the biggest difference? I'd go with Loretta.

I don't understand where "on average it would take an extra 2 hits to get that runner home." What if the bases are juiced and Everett gets to a ball that Loretta doesn't? What if Everett makes a play that Loretta can't and turns a double play out of it (i.e. 2005 NLCS Game 4).

[Refman]

Everett isn't going anywhere, and he'll be starting SS next year. Real baseball isn't fantasy baseball, you don't just plug in people with the highest OPS.

Bruntlett is a great utility player to have around, and I love him and his versatility. But don't make him out to be something he's not either.
The problem is that Everett is a gaping hole in the offense. You simply aren't going to sign a premium SS in the offseason. You are likely going to have to resolve this from within. Bruntlett is the best option we currently have.

I still maintain, after looking at the ESPN game logs, that Luke Scott could be a reasonable answer at RF.

[DaDakota]

I still maintain, after looking at the ESPN game logs, that Luke Scott could be a reasonable answer at RF.

He should be playing every single day.......Jason Lane....should be released.

DD

[Akhorahil]

I like the middle ground approach when it comes to SS. I'm not looking for a power hitter like some of these AL teams, rather more of a doubles type hitter with above average defensive skills. Is that Bruntlett? I don't know, it could be.

RedGoose, here's a list of 3rd basemen (http://www.mlb4u.com/freeagency.php?field=position) who can be FA this year. Now there maybe alot of guys there. But alot of those guys are going to resign with their teams. The ones that won't/might not I wouldn't consider them an upgrade over Ty. I mean, besides ARod. Next year's 3rd basemen market is much worse. Basically because alot of the "good" players in that market are probably going to resign with their teams. Which would make Ensberg one of the best 3rd basemen FA that year. When Ty becomes a FA, so will Adrian Beltre, Miguel Cabrera, Melvin Mora, and Freddy Sanchez. I doubt any of those guys will be returning to their prior teams.

I told a buddy of mine on another site, who actually led me here, about this. We figured the only way to upgrade over Ensberg anytime soon was via trade. What was it Dom? 2-3 weeks later they made the Wheeler/Ty trade?

So we are back to square one. The only way I see them upgraded at 3rd in the next 2 seasons is via trade.

The catcher market is a pretty good market this year and even next year.
Now RF... very different story. You got tons of options.

[DOMINATOR]

I told a buddy of mine on another site, who actually led me here, about this. We figured the only way to upgrade over Ensberg anytime soon was via trade. What was it Dom? 2-3 weeks later they made the Wheeler/Ty trade?
yeah but i always felt ensberg should have been 3rd-4th part to upgrade considering his OBP... i thought they should have upgraded catcher first considering ausmus is close to retirement. i think they should call up JR. Towles right now releasing palmeiro so they have an idea of what to expect from him and if they could go a year with a band-aid or look into a long term catcher.
then starting pitching since its obvious no one is solid outside of Roy. figure the bullpen will be fine with Nieve taking over as setup man or 7th inning. then 3rd base/RF.
i think the Ty trade was to show the fans they were doing something to upgrade yet its not even that much better especially when you have a better player already on the roster, lamb... it's another band-aid and the organization are trying to pass it off as something more than what it is. fans aren't idiots and see right through it.

i think the most frustrating thing with the astros is they have no direction and no plan. if JR Towles, Patton, Gutierrez/estrada arent called up in september im going to be disappointed and just more fuel to the fire purpura debate.

[Hammer755]

The problem is that Everett is a gaping hole in the offense. You simply aren't going to sign a premium SS in the offseason. You are likely going to have to resolve this from within. Bruntlett is the best option we currently have.

I still maintain, after looking at the ESPN game logs, that Luke Scott could be a reasonable answer at RF.

I agree 100% about Scott and for the large part about Everett. There comes a time when being the best defensive SS in the game does not outweigh how bad his offense truly is. However, I still say that Bruntlett is that much better than Everett with the bat, and certainly not good enough to make the downgrade in defense

And I think we do have enough information about Bruntlett to know what kind of player he is. In 2000+ minor league AB, Bruntlett posted right around a 0.700 OPS. In 400+ major league AB, he's posted right around a 0.700 OPS. Those kind of guys shouldn't be in major league lineups without some kind of extenuating circumstances, such as a plus glove or trying to develop a young player. Bruntlett falls under neither of these categories.

[Hammer755]

That first sentence should have read that Bruntlett is not that much better than Everett with the bat, and certainly not good enough to make the downgrade in defense.

[Akhorahil]

yeah but i always felt ensberg should have been 3rd-4th part to upgrade considering his OBP... i thought they should have upgraded catcher first considering ausmus is close to retirement. i think they should call up JR. Towles right now releasing palmeiro so they have an idea of what to expect from him and if they could go a year with a band-aid or look into a long term catcher.

i think the most frustrating thing with the astros is they have no direction and no plan. if JR Towles, Patton, Gutierrez/estrada arent called up in september im going to be disappointed and just more fuel to the fire purpura debate.

You remember when I said I think Ausmus might just be coming back next year, if he doesn't retire? Towles is why. The reason I say that is if you sign a FA catcher for more than 2 seasons, which is what any of these big FA catchers are going to require, Towles is going to be held back a bit. Or worse... traded. The reason I posted the needs that way was because of the way the thead was titled. Win now philosophy.

I'm sure Towles is probably ready, hitting wise, to be called up now. But is his work behind the plate ready? that's the question. You've been following him much closer than I have. So you would know better than me. But even if you think he's ready I'll still leave that up to coaches. I don't like to count on minor league players, I don't care how much hype is behind them.

Just so you know. Gutierrez and Estrada are both on the 40 man roster. So the odds that they get called up in September are good. Patton and Towles are question marks. It all depends on what is going on. Remember Backe is coming back and I'm sure they will call him up before Patton. If all goes well. More than likely they will get ST invites and get called up next season rather than this one. Of course that's been my stance all year. lol

[MadMax]

The problem is that Everett is a gaping hole in the offense. You simply aren't going to sign a premium SS in the offseason. You are likely going to have to resolve this from within. Bruntlett is the best option we currently have.

I still maintain, after looking at the ESPN game logs, that Luke Scott could be a reasonable answer at RF.


The difference between Bruntlett and Everett at the plate over the course of their careers is teensy tiny.

But let's assume the best for Bruntlett. Let's say he's a .280 hitter from here on out. And let's assume Everett is a .250 hitter from here on out. That's 3 extra hits from Bruntlett in 100 AB's. Again...you have to do better than Eric Bruntlett to replace arguably the best defensive SS in the game. At virtually any other position, I wouldn't mind. But not at SS.

[Ric]

Let's say he's a .280 hitter from here on out. And let's assume Everett is a .250 hitter from here on out. That's 3 extra hits from Bruntlett in 100 AB's.
hold up - bruntlett is getting on base at a .380 clip compared to everett's .290. and over the course of their careers, bruntlett's OPS is nearly 60 points higher.

i'm not sure what amounts to roughly half a season is enough evidence to suggest bruntlett should displace him, but let's also not slight how large the offensive gap is between them. this year, it's sizeable.

[DaDakota]

The difference between Bruntlett and Everett at the plate over the course of their careers is teensy tiny.

But let's assume the best for Bruntlett. Let's say he's a .280 hitter from here on out. And let's assume Everett is a .250 hitter from here on out. That's 3 extra hits from Bruntlett in 100 AB's. Again...you have to do better than Eric Bruntlett to replace arguably the best defensive SS in the game. At virtually any other position, I wouldn't mind. But not at SS.


You just can't look at it strictly by batting average, having a .280 hitter at SS is miles better than a .250 hitter....much more of a threat....
What are their respective OPS numbers?

AE is at .591 this year (http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/stats?playerId=4228)

Bruntlett is at .686 for the year (http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/stats?playerId=5550)

But even if we assume you are 100% correct, I don't think many would be complaining if AE hit .250+.....but he isn't. He is hitting .228 for the year. After struggling mightily last year too.

The team gave up on Ensberg for similar numbers even though Mo hit .319 in July (http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/gamelog?playerId=4556) , it may be time to do the same with AE.

DD

[SamCassell]

I agree with Max, Bruntlett is no more than a lateral move from AE at best, and possibly is worse. He's got no power and I don't believe can keep up the on-base numbers he's got so far. His defense at short is more than adequate, but I don't think his modest expected offensive performance makes him a clear improvement at the position over a defensive wiz like Ev. I think there are plenty of better SS's in the league, but Bruntlett doesn't strike me as one of them.

[MadMax]

The team gave up on Ensberg for similar numbers even though Mo hit .319 in July (http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/gamelog?playerId=4556) , it may be time to do the same with AE.

DD

Ensberg is a 3B...not a spectacular one in the field. it's not comparable. more is expected at the plate from a corner infielder than a SS.

[DaDakota]

Ensberg is a 3B...not a spectacular one in the field. it's not comparable. more is expected at the plate from a corner infielder than a SS.

This is the part that makes me scratch my head.

Shouldn't all ball players be held accountable for both sides of play?

And what about Ausmus, shouldn't our catcher have better numbers? (sorry, that derails the thread).......

There are lots of SS better than Everett when you include offense and defense.....

He is a great defender, but IMHO that is not enough, I would rather have a guy who is a good defender and a good hitter than a great defender and a lousy hitter.

And, I don't know if Bruntlett is the answer, but he has been hitting in the .270+ range for the last couple of years, and has a career OPS of .707...which is not great, but not as bad as AE.

As for fielding, AE is a career .973% fielder (http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/stats?playerId=4228&context=fielding)

While Bruntlett is a career .958% fielder at SS (http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/stats?playerId=5550&context=fielding)

Which is a fairly insignificant difference...

DD

[MadMax]

This is the part that makes me scratch my head.

Shouldn't all ball players be held accountable for both sides of play?

And what about Ausmus, shouldn't our catcher have better numbers? (sorry, that derails the thread).......

There are lots of SS better than Everett when you include offense and defense.....

He is a great defender, but IMHO that is not enough, I would rather have a guy who is a good defender and a good hitter than a great defender and a lousy hitter.

And, I don't know if Bruntlett is the answer, but he has been hitting in the .270+ range for the last couple of years, and has a career OPS of .707...which is not great, but not as bad as AE.

As for fielding, AE is a career .973% fielder (http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/stats?playerId=4228&context=fielding)

While Bruntlett is a career .958% fielder at SS (http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/stats?playerId=5550&context=fielding)

Which is a fairly insignificant difference...

DD

that doesn't make you scratch your head. you played ball as a kid. you watch a ton of it now. you know it's not that black and white. you know that certain positions are more difficult to field than others...and come into play more than others. you're forgetting all that for the purpose of discussing AE. the problem is you, like others, have a difficult time quantifying one side of the equation so it's easier to ignore.

again...the insistence here that bruntlett is a good hitter is beyond me. i'm not saying there aren't upgrades to AE out there. i'm not telling you he's the best possible options of all options in MLB at SS. i'm suggesting i think he's a better option that bruntlett when you consider their entire body of work in the field and at the plate. he's a marginally better hitter than AE. AE is a far better defender.

[weslinder]

As for fielding, AE is a career .973% fielder (http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/stats?playerId=4228&context=fielding)

While Bruntlett is a career .958% fielder at SS (http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/stats?playerId=5550&context=fielding)

From the same link, Everett has a career Zone Rating at SS of .880 (better than Omar Vizquel's for comparison). Bruntlett's career ZR at SS is .818, which is not awful, but certainly below average for starters and the only players who are worse are offensive studs like Michael Young and Derek Jeter.

[msn]

Using stats alone to evaluate fielding is bad enough; using fpct alone to evaluate fielding is inexcusable.

[Refman]

that doesn't make you scratch your head. you played ball as a kid. you watch a ton of it now. you know it's not that black and white. you know that certain positions are more difficult to field than others...and come into play more than others. you're forgetting all that for the purpose of discussing AE. the problem is you, like others, have a difficult time quantifying one side of the equation so it's easier to ignore.

again...the insistence here that bruntlett is a good hitter is beyond me. i'm not saying there aren't upgrades to AE out there. i'm not telling you he's the best possible options of all options in MLB at SS. i'm suggesting i think he's a better option that bruntlett when you consider their entire body of work in the field and at the plate. he's a marginally better hitter than AE. AE is a far better defender.
All I ask is that you remember how great of a fielder AE is the next time he kills a rally. Every time I see him come up to the plate with two outs, it's time to go to the bathroom and grab another soda.

[msn]

All I ask is that you remember how great of a fielder AE is the next time he kills a rally. Every time I see him come up to the plate with two outs, it's time to go to the bathroom and grab another soda.
And all I ask is that you remember that 7 out of 10 "rallies" are killed by Lance Berkman and Carlos Lee, too.

[Ric]

he's a marginally better hitter than AE. AE is a far better defender.
max, there's a 105-point difference in their ob% this year - 105! there's a 30-point difference for their careers and a 60-point difference in their career OPSs. the sample size isn't large, granted, and there's no way of knowing what pace bruntlett would set as an everday player, but the difference is not "marginal."

i'd be thrilled if they gave bruntlett a legitimate shot to be our everyday 2B next year and wouldn't be opposed to them at least making the 2008 starting SS an open audition.

[MadMax]

max, there's a 105-point difference in their ob% this year - 105! there's a 30-point difference for their careers and a 60-point difference in their career OPSs. the sample size isn't large, granted, and there's no way of knowing what pace bruntlett would set as an everday player, but the difference is not "marginal."

i'd be thrilled if they gave bruntlett a legitimate shot to be our everyday 2B next year and wouldn't be opposed to them at least making the 2008 starting SS an open audition.

this year?? ok...if you wanna use this year, AE has a higher slugging average. i'm fine with you comparing the 2...but doing so over the 80 or so at bats bruntlett has this year is silly. over the course of their careers, bruntlett is a marginally better hitter than AE.

[Major]

again...the insistence here that bruntlett is a good hitter is beyond me. i'm not saying there aren't upgrades to AE out there. i'm not telling you he's the best possible options of all options in MLB at SS. i'm suggesting i think he's a better option that bruntlett when you consider their entire body of work in the field and at the plate. he's a marginally better hitter than AE. AE is a far better defender.

Bruntlett was marginally better in the minors too - it's not like he was some superstar in the minors that suggests he would be a lot better than he is if got to play full-time. A marginal improvement from a terrible to bad hitter in the 8 spot isn't going to make any real difference on this team. A vast improvement of defense at SS far, far, far, far outweighs that it seems.

[Major]

By the way, since Everett got hurt, the Astros have the worst ERA in baseball I believe. We're now 15th in the NL out of 16 teams. We were middle of the pack if I remember right when he went down.

[Zacatecas]

I'd like to see Patton make the jump to the Big leagues.

[weslinder]

By the way, since Everett got hurt, the Astros have the worst ERA in baseball I believe. We're now 15th in the NL out of 16 teams. We were middle of the pack if I remember right when he went down.

Amazing how that works!!

[Ric]

this year?? ok...if you wanna use this year, AE has a higher slugging average. i'm fine with you comparing the 2...but doing so over the 80 or so at bats bruntlett has this year is silly. over the course of their careers, bruntlett is a marginally better hitter than AE.
MM, i'm not (necessarily) in the "bench/cut adam everett" camp; this is a horrible defensive team, especially up the middle.

but bruntlett's career OPS is 60 points higher than everett's (and, for the record, i noted that the sample size was small.). he's more than a marginally better offensive player based on measurements available to us. jimy williams thought bruntlett was a terrific athlete and we're seeing evidence of that over and over again (btw, whoever mentioned game 4 of the '05 NLCS - that play was made by bruntlett's flip) - is it really inconceivable that he could displace everett and make the team better? he's certainly not a butcher defensively. but he also doesn't right now play the position everyday.

A marginal improvement from a terrible to bad hitter in the 8 spot isn't going to make any real difference on this team. A vast improvement of defense at SS far, far, far, far outweighs that it seems.
but major: baseball does not dictate that a SS has to bat 8th. everett hits 8th because he's among the 2 or 3 worst offensive players in baseball and putting him anywhere else in the line-up would be ignorant.

bruntlett's ob% right now is .380. sample size noted, but are you suggesting this team couldn't use that higher in the line-up, especially given our everyday lead-off hitter's ob% is 95 points lower?

if bruntlett could prove to be a competent top of the line-up hitter and, while not AE good, above average good in the field... that's not a move you'd make? like i said, i'd prefer bruntlett get a fair, legit shot at 2B, but i wouldn't mind the astros keeping an open mind about him being an everyday SS next spring.

[weslinder]

if bruntlett could prove to be a competent top of the line-up hitter and, while not AE good, above average good in the field... that's not a move you'd make? like i said, i'd prefer bruntlett get a fair, legit shot at 2B, but i wouldn't mind the astros keeping an open mind about him being an everyday SS next spring.

Bruntlett is below average at SS, and the only players worse are offensive studs. Bruntlett is above average at 2B, and even 3B, but he is a significant downgrade from Everett with the glove.

[MadMax]

MM, i'm not (necessarily) in the "bench/cut adam everett" camp; this is a horrible defensive team, especially up the middle.

but bruntlett's career OPS is 60 points higher than everett's (and, for the record, i noted that the sample size was small.). he's more than a marginally better offensive player based on measurements available to us. jimy williams thought bruntlett was a terrific athlete and we're seeing evidence of that over and over again (btw, whoever mentioned game 4 of the '05 NLCS - that play was made by bruntlett's flip) - is it really inconceivable that he could displace everett and make the team better? he's certainly not a butcher defensively. but he also doesn't right now play the position everyday.

.

sorry, but i don't see bruntlett as the kind of hitter you sacrifice AE's glove for. this team needs defense up the middle. it needs guys like lance to hit like they're capable of hitting. and it needs some real answers at the plate from RF and 3B, where offense is easier to find than at SS.

by the way...it wasn't the flip that was exceptional about that play in the 05 NLCS...it was the fire...the turn. that was AE's play with the runner closing hard on him. bruntlett did what any average 2B would have done with that ground ball.

http://mlb.mlb.com/media/player/mp_tpl.jsp?w_id=455473&w=mms%3A//a1503.v108692.c10869.g.vm.akamaistream.net/7/1503/10869/v0001/mlb.download.akamai.com/10869/2005/open/topplays/archive10/05nlcs_gm4_slnhou_hou_gw_dp_56.wmv&pid=mlb_tp&gid=2005/10/16/slnmlb-houmlb-1&curl=custom_context/ps/y2005/lcs_b.jsp&cid=mlb&fid=mlb_tp56&v=2&mType=w&urlstr=&mUrl=&type=v_free&_mp=1

[Ric]

sorry, but i don't see bruntlett as the kind of hitter you sacrifice AE's glove for. this team needs defense up the middle. it needs guys like lance to hit like they're capable of hitting. and it needs some real answers at the plate from RF and 3B, where offense is easier to find than at SS.
i agree with every single word, save for the bit about bruntlett - it may ultimately prove correct, but i'd at least give him a chance to cinfirm it.

by the way...it wasn't the flip that was exceptional about that play in the 05 NLCS...it was the fire...the turn. that was AE's play. bruntlett did what any average 2B would have done with that ground ball.
you're right; i got the players mixed up. for some reason, i thought it was hit to AE.

and like i said, i recognize AE's value. i do. but i also know this team has additional needs and one of them is the top of the line-up - it's a big, big concern.

[Major]

but major: baseball does not dictate that a SS has to bat 8th. everett hits 8th because he's among the 2 or 3 worst offensive players in baseball and putting him anywhere else in the line-up would be ignorant.

bruntlett's ob% right now is .380. sample size noted, but are you suggesting this team couldn't use that higher in the line-up, especially given our everyday lead-off hitter's ob% is 95 points lower?


That's certainly true - if Bruntlett could fill a different role for the team (ie, leadoff or #2 hitter or whatnot), that would be a different story. I'm coming at it from the perspective that he's not good enough to be anything but the worst hitter in the lineup, unless maybe Ausmus is back. His minor league career OPS is under 0.700, though he does have a decent 0.350 minor league OBP. But Everett had a similar OBP and higher OPS. Just watching Bruntlett and looking at his past stats, I don't see a lot of potential - but that's admittedly not much of an argument.

[Jared Novak]

I'd like to see Patton make the jump to the Big leagues.

Wait until September, he might get called up when rosters are expanded and may get the chance to get a taste of the big leagues.

[Nick]

If they don't get better pitching, it doesn't matter who is playing SS. With the pitching they have now, I'd rather field the best defensive team possible.

Regardless, any conversation about where the team needs to improve next year should be largely focused on pitching... both starters and bullpen. The lineup isn't elite, but it certainly has come a long way from the last couple of years... and that's including Berkman having his worst year ever at the plate, and Biggio/Ausmus still getting a ton of AB's.

[Akhorahil]

I second that Nick.

Hey Dom, you almost got your wish with Guttierez. They had him come to MMP, in case Randolph was put on the DL. But he wasn't so they sent him back to RR. He was never put on the roster, just in case thing. Which, IMO, is kind of a crappy way to go about it.

[redgoose]

And all I ask is that you remember that 7 out of 10 "rallies" are killed by Lance Berkman and Carlos Lee, too.

Lee and Berkman also start rallies! How often does Everett start a rally? :D And don't say it's because he bats #8. We've tried having him lead off or bat 2nd and that didn't work out either.

[redgoose]

I like the middle ground approach when it comes to SS. I'm not looking for a power hitter like some of these AL teams, rather more of a doubles type hitter with above average defensive skills. Is that Bruntlett? I don't know, it could be.

RedGoose, here's a list of 3rd basemen (http://www.mlb4u.com/freeagency.php?field=position) who can be FA this year. Now there maybe alot of guys there. But alot of those guys are going to resign with their teams. The ones that won't/might not I wouldn't consider them an upgrade over Ty. I mean, besides ARod. Next year's 3rd basemen market is much worse. Basically because alot of the "good" players in that market are probably going to resign with their teams. Which would make Ensberg one of the best 3rd basemen FA that year. When Ty becomes a FA, so will Adrian Beltre, Miguel Cabrera, Melvin Mora, and Freddy Sanchez. I doubt any of those guys will be returning to their prior teams.

I told a buddy of mine on another site, who actually led me here, about this. We figured the only way to upgrade over Ensberg anytime soon was via trade. What was it Dom? 2-3 weeks later they made the Wheeler/Ty trade?

So we are back to square one. The only way I see them upgraded at 3rd in the next 2 seasons is via trade.

The catcher market is a pretty good market this year and even next year.
Now RF... very different story. You got tons of options.

I completely agree with your post. If we play Ty at 3rd next year, play Bruntlett everyday at SS, and sign a new catcher that's already 3 offensive upgrades, only adding salary for the new catcher, while removing Ausmus from the payroll. We could also resign Loretta, having Biggio of the books, to fight it out with Burke for 2nd base. My money would be on Loretta. Another slight upgrade at no cost. Not superstar upgrades, but 3-4 improvements none the less with very little cost all helping the team in every offensive category. If we could then sign either a free agent CF or RF slugger (which there are tons of), we would be drastically better offensively, and could even be considered one of the better hitting teams in the NL only 1 year after being among the very worst. :cool:

Then, it's all about the pitching. We have to sign a legitimate #2 starting pitcher to even compete for a playoff spot in the worst division in baseball, or we have no chance from day #1. Then resign Jennings (I think he could be a good #3) with a simple vastly improved offense like i suggested above and suddenly our team looks pretty good, has a chance to win everyday, and should be in contention. Zambrano would be my ideal pitcher to sign, he knows the division and is a better hitter than 1/2 our team is, but somehow i don't see us spending the money on him that we wants. I know he said he wants to stay a Cub, but they didn't resign him before the season like he wanted and have a very high payroll already. I think we could sweep in there and snag him if we really wanted too. :)

[DaDakota]

By the way, since Everett got hurt, the Astros have the worst ERA in baseball I believe. We're now 15th in the NL out of 16 teams. We were middle of the pack if I remember right when he went down.

LOL - what a bunch of hooey........

Our starting pitching has collapsed, unless Adam Everett is playing all 8 fielding positions, he would not make THAT much of a difference in overall team ERA.


Max,

I get that AE is a great defender, and I get that you think he is the best option on the Astros, I can not argue that point.

I am saying he is NOT good enough to be your every day SS.......he should be a late inning replacement.

DD

[MadMax]

Max,

I get that AE is a great defender, and I get that you think he is the best option on the Astros, I can not argue that point.

I am saying he is NOT good enough to be your every day SS.......he should be a late inning replacement.

DD


Not good enough to be your every day SS??? He was the every day SS on a team that won the pennant, DaDa! The only team in franchise history to win a pennant!

[DaDakota]

Not good enough to be your every day SS??? He was the every day SS on a team that won the pennant, DaDa! The only team in franchise history to win a pennant!

Yes, but they lost the world series in 4 games because the team's offense was so anemic, and AE was a big part of that anemia.

And I don't want a pennant, I want a WS.......one pennant in 45 years is an aberation......

Team's could pitch around the top of the lineup because the bottom was such a cream puff.

I am not blaming it all on AE, I just want a SS that can hit his way out of a paper bag, and field his position well.

Is that asking too much? How many other team's have great defensive/lousy offensive short stops starting for them now?

AE is a GREAT defender, but IMO, being one sided is not enough.......

And arguably the reason that team won the pennant was because of great pitching......and yes, defense....

But great defense is not as valuable if you don't have the pitching anymore.

AE is wonderful as a SS when you have quality pitching, but his liability on offense is magnified when starting pitching is suspect....or average.

I would rather have a SS that is GOOD on both sides of the ball rather than one who is great on one and HORRID on the other.

DD

[MadMax]

Yes, but they lost the world series in 4 games because the team's offense was so anemic, and AE was a big part of that anemia.

And I don't want a pennant, I want a WS.......one pennant in 45 years is an aberation......

Team's could pitch around the top of the lineup because the bottom was such a cream puff.

I am not blaming it all on AE, I just want a SS that can hit his way out of a paper bag, and field his position well.

Is that asking too much? How many other team's have great defensive/lousy offensive short stops starting for them now?

AE is a GREAT defender, but IMO, being one sided is not enough.......

And arguably the reason that team won the pennant was because of great pitching......and yes, defense....

But great defense is not as valuable if you don't have the pitching anymore.

AE is wonderful as a SS when you have quality pitching, but his liability on offense is magnified when starting pitching is suspect....or average.

I would rather have a SS that is GOOD on both sides of the ball rather than one who is great on one and HORRID on the other.

DD

1. it's ridiculous to say that AE isn't good enough to be the SS on a championship team because they lost the WS. give me a break. you know better than that.

2. once again...i'm not arguing that there is no upgrade to AE out there. i'm arguing that bruntlett isn't it.

3. ozzie smith was a pedestrian offensive player. he was a fantastic defensive player. he's in the HOF. if he were a 1B, that would never have happened. if he were a rightfielder, that would never have happened. he was a SS. you're trying to apply standards to middle infielders that just aren't applied.

AE has 2140 career AB's so far...he's batting .247 with a .299 OBP and a .357 slugging average.

Through Ozzie Smith's first four seasons he had 2233 AB's... batted .230...his OBP was around .294...and about a .277 slugging average.

Those numbers are eerily similar. There's no need to pretend that great defensive SS's aren't given a pass at the plate with their bats. It's happened for as long as I can remember. And Ozzie ended up in Cooperstown. I'm not suggesting that's where AE's headed...just suggesting there MIGHT be more value in AE than you give credit for in terms of run differential.

[SamCassell]

The "good enough to start in 2005" argument gets old after awhile. There are reasons why AE starts, but his merits or lack thereof should be based on current production and not what he did 2 years ago. I mean, Jason Lane started every game of the world series, but I don't hear anyone stating that he should be a starter now just because he was a starter then. Morgan Ensberg started for us 2 years ago, now he's been cut. Willy T got traded away. Bags retired. Times change, players change. Everett's OPS has dropped more than 60 points since that season. He's driven in a total of 15 runs in 200+ ABs. He stole 20+ bases in '05, he no longer runs. In short, Everett of 2007 is not the same offensive player he was in 2005 (and he wasn't anything special then).

[DaDakota]

1. it's ridiculous to say that AE isn't good enough to be the SS on a championship team because they lost the WS. give me a break. you know better than that.

He is good enough to start on a SPECIFIC type of team, one where offense is not needed, that is NOT the case of the Astros, nor almost any major league team anymore. Who has 4 quality starting pitchers?

2. once again...i'm not arguing that there is no upgrade to AE out there. i'm arguing that bruntlett isn't it.

I don't know if Bruntlett is it or not, but I think we have to have an upgrade at SS to compete in today's MLB.

3. ozzie smith was a pedestrian offensive player. he was a fantastic defensive player. he's in the HOF. if he were a 1B, that would never have happened. if he were a rightfielder, that would never have happened. he was a SS. you're trying to apply standards to middle infielders that just aren't applied.

AE has 2140 career AB's so far...he's batting .247 with a .299 OBP and a .357 slugging average.

Through Ozzie Smith's first four seasons he had 2233 AB's... batted .230...his OBP was around .294...and about a .277 slugging average.

Ozzie Smith was incredible, no doubt, but he developed into a good hitter, while Ozzie got better AE is getting worse, and MLB has changed since the days of the wizard, team's do not play small ball, they don't steal, they go for the big stick........not the same game at all.

Those numbers are eerily similar. There's no need to pretend that great defensive SS's aren't given a pass at the plate with their bats. It's happened for as long as I can remember. And Ozzie ended up in Cooperstown. I'm not suggesting that's where AE's headed...just suggesting there MIGHT be more value in AE than you give credit for in terms of run differential.

The past is not indicative of the game today. There is a reason that lots of teams are not emulating the light hitting SS theory, because now, lots of the short stops are hitting with power, and hitting a high average AND playing good defense. Just look at the Marlins young SS....

AE might have been given a pass in baseball played during the 70s and 80s, now, he is just not good enough on offense to warrant a starting position.

IMO.

I don't know if the Astros have a better option, but they darned well better be looking for one.....

DD

[redgoose]

1. it's ridiculous to say that AE isn't good enough to be the SS on a championship team because they lost the WS. give me a break. you know better than that.

2. once again...i'm not arguing that there is no upgrade to AE out there. i'm arguing that bruntlett isn't it.

3. ozzie smith was a pedestrian offensive player. he was a fantastic defensive player. he's in the HOF. if he were a 1B, that would never have happened. if he were a rightfielder, that would never have happened. he was a SS. you're trying to apply standards to middle infielders that just aren't applied.

AE has 2140 career AB's so far...he's batting .247 with a .299 OBP and a .357 slugging average.

Through Ozzie Smith's first four seasons he had 2233 AB's... batted .230...his OBP was around .294...and about a .277 slugging average.

Those numbers are eerily similar. There's no need to pretend that great defensive SS's aren't given a pass at the plate with their bats. It's happened for as long as I can remember. And Ozzie ended up in Cooperstown. I'm not suggesting that's where AE's headed...just suggesting there MIGHT be more value in AE than you give credit for in terms of run differential.

I'm sick of these Ozzie Smith comparisons. :mad: He played in an age where if you hit 20 homeruns you were the cleanup hitter. You also might notice pitchers don't pitch complete games anymore. Also scoring runs have dramatically increased.

Sorry to dissapoint so many of you, but teams aren't looking for SS's from the 70's era that can't hit but play excellent defense anymore. Those players are easy to find in college and the minor leagues. Have you ever heard of a single team being remotely interested in Adam Everett since he's the second coming of Ozzie Smith if not better? Try naming 1 or 2 teams that would bench their starting SS to play AE if we gave him to them. :confused:

Also, just like AE, if Ozzie Smith played today, nobody other than the team's fans he played for (if he could make any team) would know who he was. Also, if they did, they'd be looking for an upgrade. Just like AE, he would have no trade value.

[redgoose]

Yes, but they lost the world series in 4 games because the team's offense was so anemic, and AE was a big part of that anemia.

And I don't want a pennant, I want a WS.......one pennant in 45 years is an aberation......

Team's could pitch around the top of the lineup because the bottom was such a cream puff.

I am not blaming it all on AE, I just want a SS that can hit his way out of a paper bag, and field his position well.

Is that asking too much? How many other team's have great defensive/lousy offensive short stops starting for them now?

AE is a GREAT defender, but IMO, being one sided is not enough.......

And arguably the reason that team won the pennant was because of great pitching......and yes, defense....

But great defense is not as valuable if you don't have the pitching anymore.

AE is wonderful as a SS when you have quality pitching, but his liability on offense is magnified when starting pitching is suspect....or average.

I would rather have a SS that is GOOD on both sides of the ball rather than one who is great on one and HORRID on the other.

DD

I'm just so glad at least someone else out there gets this! :eek: You must actually at least watch a baseball game once in a while. ;)

AE supporters act like every ball is hit to the short stop and AE is the only guy in MLB with enough range to field any of those balls. Otherwise, they won't just be hits, they'll somehow lead to a runs being scored. Once in a blue moon AE can field a ball your average SS couldn't field leading to a hit. Way more than once a blue moon, a good SS could also get a hit that could lead to a run being scored. :rolleyes:

Also, some of the best Astros teams didn't exactly have great defense. Berkman was never a good outfielder. Jeff Kent was a downgrade at 2nd base, Ward was horrible, Biggio wasn't close to a real center fielder, Julio Lugo committed so any errors i couldn't count, etc. Yet AE is a must if we want to go to the WS. (That is if we also have Oswalt, Pettite, Clemens, Lidge and Morgan Ensberg in All Star form) :rolleyes:

[Groogrux]

Ya'll are right. With Bruntlett starting all year, this team would be in the division lead. :rolleyes:

No one's saying they're opposed to a replacement for Everett. You just have to be better all around than someone like Bruntlett or Loretta. For some of us, it makes more sense to improve the offense everywhere else you can before removing the best defensive player at arguably the most important defensive position.

But yeah, we're the ones that don't watch the games. You're the ones that only watch the box scores.

Oh and let me go ahead and add :rolleyes: :rolleyes:

[DaDakota]

RM,

I don't just want an improvement at SS....that is just a start.....I want Starting pitching, I want a better catcher, I want a better 3rd baseman...

I want Burke and Loretta to fight it out at 2b.....

I want Willy Taveras and the gang back from Colorado...

And I want Woody Williams to retire.....

This team has a ton of holes, and I would not rank Everett as the number 1 hole to fix....not by a long shot.

But he is one of many that need fixing...IMHO.

DD

[redgoose]

Ya'll are right. With Bruntlett starting all year, this team would be in the division lead. :rolleyes:

No one's saying they're opposed to a replacement for Everett. You just have to be better all around than someone like Bruntlett or Loretta. For some of us, it makes more sense to improve the offense everywhere else you can before removing the best defensive player at arguably the most important defensive position.

But yeah, we're the ones that don't watch the games. You're the ones that only watch the box scores.

Oh and let me go ahead and add :rolleyes: :rolleyes:


That's exactly what was said. :rolleyes: I'll go one step further to make you feel better. We still wouldn't be in 1st with A-Rod at SS.

But then again, he doesn't have Everetts range. :( So even if AE was healthy all year, the extra runs produced by A-Rod would have been balanced out by all the runs AE saves. Therefore, AE should get a 250 million dollar contract when he's eligable for free agency. I'm sure the bidding wars on him will be surreal. I could see the Astros trying to outbid a minor league team who's starting SS got promoted to the big league. I'm curious to see what an arbitration judge would award him as well. :D

[Blake]

Though I'm not really a Bruntlett fan at all, I for one don't miss AE and his "killer defense" and terrible bat.

I agree AE is an amazing SS, but he's too much of a liability in the batter's box.

He would be perfect on an AL team where he can hit in the 9 hole

But Bruntlett isn't too good either

[Aceshigh7]

Pitching is the most important.

Sign or trade for two very good starting pitchers to shore up our rotation, and obtain one good reliever to replace Wheeler. And also re-sign Lamb, and this team should be set and likely win the Central next year.

[Nick]

stop bitching about the SS (who will be our #8 hitter, no matter who is there).

Start banging the drum for more pitching... top to bottom.

[Akhorahil]

stop bitching about the SS (who will be our #8 hitter, no matter who is there).

Start banging the drum for more pitching... top to bottom.

I second that. It would be one thing if there was a hot SS going to be available in the FA market this offseason... I'd understand the debate going this far. But there isn't. And if you think Uribe is an upgrade at SS... WOW... hehehe

Can the Brewers bring back Cordero and Linebrink? What do you think about Al Reyes? Do you bring back Springer? Do you bring back Miller or do you go after Romero? Or do you go after both and three lefties in the pen with McLemore? Can the Astros land Carlos Zambrano?

These are the questions we should be debating. We will have plenty of time to debate AE. He can become a FA after next season. Let's try not to skip ahead.

[Akhorahil]

sry for double post. but...

And if you they don't land Zambrano... wtf do you do then?

[Refman]

Of course for a SS with killer defense to even matter, you have to have the offense to produce a lead.

I personally don't care if we lose 3 to 1 or 5 to 1. It's still a loss.

[DOMINATOR]

Of course for a SS with killer defense to even matter, you have to have the offense to produce a lead.

I personally don't care if we lose 3 to 1 or 5 to 1. It's still a loss.
I personally don't care if we win 3 to 1 or 5 to 1. It's still a win.

[redgoose]

Pitching is definitely the #1 priority and should always be every year. However, without an improved lineup we'll be seeing similar pitching outings like ones from Clemens we used to always see and gripe about when he should have won about every game he pitched getting maybe 1 sometimes 2 for support. Oswalt will lose about 5 games he shouldn't and throw in some no decisions here and there as well for everyone.

I posted earlier how we can already bolster our lineup within the organization with Ty at 3rd, Bruntlett at SS, Loretta/Burke at 2nd, and a new catcher. All small improvements that cost us little, but combined should make a difference especially if we sign a RF or CF slugger.

I really don't see the best available pitchers wanting to play somewhere that Roy Oswalt can't win a Cy Young and Clemens/Petitte didn't win many games due to run support. Don't forget that making the payoffs wasn't easy at all with 3 star pitchers due to our lousy hitting then. We had to play small ball like it was 1970 everyday. Yet, we have no speed to steal bases, which should be Everett's job since he can't hit and plays for defensive reasons only.

Yes AE is one of many holes to cover up (I've been AE enemy #1 forever here), but he is the biggest hole we have by far, especially with Ausmus retiring, his lousy hitting will be magnified even more. If he's starting next year and we're losing again, i'll bet anyone money in the tip jar they'll be allot less people sticking up for him and the fans at games will even start turning on him, something very uncommon for Astros fans.

[MaxwellsTemper]

Adam Everett bats #8 in the lineup, even if he was batting .300 the Astros would not be scoring many more runs. That is the bottom line.

Bruntlett is not much better than Everett with the bat (if at all - he doesn't play everyday, so we don't know). But he is not on the same level as AE on defense - not even close. You need to take off your homer glasses if you think he is. He is a GREAT utility player, but please stop making him out to be something he is not. AE is the BEST defensive SS in baseball, Bruntlett is a bench player who is pretty good at defense. There is a huge difference, whether folks on here want to admit that, or know enough about baseball to recognize that.

AE is going to be starting SS next year. Mark it down. Its absurd to think Bruntlett would start over him.

[Nick]

Of course for a SS with killer defense to even matter, you have to have the offense to produce a lead.

I personally don't care if we lose 3 to 1 or 5 to 1. It's still a loss.

I'd rather lose 1-0 than give up 10+ runs in 3-4 straight games (like they did last week).

People also forget that the offense WILL be (and has been) better than the 05-06 versions... if only because they have Berkman, Lee, Pence... and won't have as much of Biggio/Ausmus.

[redgoose]

Adam Everett bats #8 in the lineup, even if he was batting .300 the Astros would not be scoring many more runs. That is the bottom line.

He wouldn't be batting # 8 in the lineup if he could hit .300, heck he doesn't even have an OBP of .300. And yes, it would lead to more runs batting before Berkman and Lee.


Bruntlett is not much better than Everett with the bat (if at all - he doesn't play everyday, so we don't know). But he is not on the same level as AE on defense - not even close. You need to take off your homer glasses if you think he is. He is a GREAT utility player, but please stop making him out to be something he is not. AE is the BEST defensive SS in baseball, Bruntlett is a bench player who is pretty good at defense. There is a huge difference, whether folks on here want to admit that, or know enough about baseball to recognize that.

Bruntelett is only a minor downgrade defensively from AE when you compare their range. He also has an OBP of over 90 points more. Nobody is saying we want Bruntlett as a permanent solution, but he would be an instant upgrade until we find someone better. The people that know baseball also know that it has changed over the years. Every team could have an Adam Everett of their own if they wanted, but the real world knows The Dead Ball Era has been over for a long time and you need more runs to score. And everybody needs to contribute to that.


AE is going to be starting SS next year. Mark it down. Its absurd to think Bruntlett would start over him.

I think you may be correct. Drayton still wants to prove the Everett for Evrerett trade wasn't a complete wash on our side. However his average keeps getting worse every year to the point where pitchers bat better than him.

Mark this down. The people will turn on AE next year. Fans will realize the one ball in 100 he saves isn't worth his crappy average. However, nobody in their right minds would trade away anything for him. He'll eventually be splitting time, then benched, then put on waivers to see if there's any takers.

[xishi]

where was all this adam everett talk in my AE thread???? hahaha. :D

[MaxwellsTemper]

where was all this adam everett talk in my AE thread???? hahaha. :D
Bruntlett is not only a "minor" defensive downgrade to AE. That is a joke.

[MaxwellsTemper]

My bad, that wasn't in response to your post xishi.

[MaxwellsTemper]

I wish I could edit posts so I didn't have to TRIPLE post.. so sorry about that.

But not "everyone" thinks you need to score runs to win games. Defense is important, like I said.. this isn't fantasy baseball. Defense up the middle is especially important. Getting a defensive hoover at 1B isn't the same as having a guy like that at SS. If we had a 1B who wasn't good at the plate but was amazing in the field, it would be a different story. SS is not a position that is considered essential for offense. If you get that.. great. But out of a SS defense is extremely important, particularly for a team like the Astros that rely on pitching/defense traditionally. If you are looking for a team that is trying to win 10-9 everynight, I think you should cheer for the Rangers.

Like someone said, I'd rather lose 1-0 than give up 10 runs a night.

[redgoose]

where was all this adam everett talk in my AE thread???? hahaha. :D

I was there posting my opinions many times and getting criticized every time by everyone. For some reason, more people are for a change now, even though it's only been a week. Wait until it's been anothe year! :eek:

[xishi]

im ready for a change. i wanna see bruntlett get some consistent pt at shortstop. everett can come off the bench.

[redgoose]

I wish I could edit posts so I didn't have to TRIPLE post.. so sorry about that.

But not "everyone" thinks you need to score runs to win games. Defense is important, like I said.. this isn't fantasy baseball. Defense up the middle is especially important. Getting a defensive hoover at 1B isn't the same as having a guy like that at SS. If we had a 1B who wasn't good at the plate but was amazing in the field, it would be a different story. SS is not a position that is considered essential for offense. If you get that.. great. But out of a SS defense is extremely important, particularly for a team like the Astros that rely on pitching/defense traditionally. If you are looking for a team that is trying to win 10-9 everynight, I think you should cheer for the Rangers.

Like someone said, I'd rather lose 1-0 than give up 10 runs a night.

At exactly what point will you say this guy's offensive bat is hurting us more than his defense is helping us? Seriously? Do you have a batting average line AE can't fall below? Exactly how many spectacular plays do you think he makes saving a hit compared to an average SS? Exactly how many runs do you think he saves per game? Finally, if a SS is able to help score more runs than he stops, in your opinion is he still less valuable than AE, since he's still the better defender? :confused:

Also, since we don't have pitching, shouldn't we try to be hitting? After all, no matter what the score is, if i remember correctly the team with the most runs wins. You speak like AE saves us at least one run every game. Or week for that matter. I know sub par offensive players often get over looked for golden glove awards, but the way you speak of AE, he should have one for every year he's played. Ausmus is a sub par offensive player and even he's won a couple.

Is there any SS you'd rather have than AE, and why? If you were to answer yes to anyone, than you would be admitting that a SS that can score more runs then he stops is an upgrade. The only problem is there's tons of them out there and they don't even have to be named Tejada, Jeter, Nomar, etc. :eek:

[Nick]

im ready for a change. i wanna see bruntlett get some consistent pt at shortstop. everett can come off the bench.

Where have you been the last 2 months when he's been there?

You can't have it both ways... "Bruntlett is better now, but the team is bad because of the pitching....Everett is a good defensive player, but when he's in, there's no hitting."

Clearly, this team needs more pitching REGARDLESS of who's playing SS. Clearly, this team needs Lance Berkman to be Lance, and a leadoff hitter who gets on base more than Biggio does to be a fully dangerous lineup REGARDLESS of who's playing SS.

That leaves me with using defense to evaluate the SS position... and lookee there... I wonder who wins that battle.

[MadMax]

i love the whole condescending, "people who know baseball agree with me" crap. that's awesome. and by awesome i mean totally sweet.

[MaxwellsTemper]

At exactly what point will you say this guy's offensive bat is hurting us more than his defense is helping us? Seriously? Do you have a batting average line AE can't fall below? Exactly how many spectacular plays do you think he makes saving a hit compared to an average SS? Exactly how many runs do you think he saves per game? Finally, if a SS is able to help score more runs than he stops, in your opinion is he still less valuable than AE, since he's still the better defender? :confused:

Also, since we don't have pitching, shouldn't we try to be hitting? After all, no matter what the score is, if i remember correctly the team with the most runs wins. You speak like AE saves us at least one run every game. Or week for that matter. I know sub par offensive players often get over looked for golden glove awards, but the way you speak of AE, he should have one for every year he's played. Ausmus is a sub par offensive player and even he's won a couple.

Is there any SS you'd rather have than AE, and why? If you were to answer yes to anyone, than you would be admitting that a SS that can score more runs then he stops is an upgrade. The only problem is there's tons of them out there and they don't even have to be named Tejada, Jeter, Nomar, etc. :eek:
Actually, Adam Everett should have won the last two Gold Gloves, to answer that question.

And Adam Everett is never seen making spectacular, diving plays. Reason being that he is so good he gets to tough balls without having to dive. He has very good instincts, and great positioning.. and makes tough plays look very routine. That is why he gets so little credit. He does his job without looking like Rey Ordonez, who always looked like he was making a spectacular play because he was out of position so much. Yes, there are other SSs out there that are pretty good - but we don't have one nor are we in position to get one.

And I agree - Bruntlett has been playing for a while. Question - have we been winning ballgames???

[rterry]

A previous post said about 36M would bring the payroll to 120M. I don't think it would necessarily take this much to make us a contender, but let's suppose Uncle Drayton would go for it.

We need only make one offensive upgrade and that is at catcher. Everette or Bruntlett can fight it out for SS, since either is an adequate no. 8 hitter. It is having so many sub par hitters that kills you. We have already upgraded at 3b, Berkman will bounce back, Loretta should be re-signed to start at 2b with Burke as competition. OF is above average with Lee, Pence, and Scott. With an offensive catcher, we would have a solid lineup 1-7 with Bruntlett and Everette adequate as no. 8's.
If you could get Posada for 24M over 2 years that would be perfect. So let's say 12m for a catcher, leaving 24M for pitching. I would be alright with one ace and one middle of the pack guy, but you might need to settle on 2 middle of the pack guys. A catcher and 2 rotation pitchers in the off-season would make us contenders.

[Zac D]

Every team could have an Adam Everett of their own if they wanted, but the real world knows The Dead Ball Era has been over for a long time and you need more runs to score. And everybody needs to contribute to that.

Two things.

1.) Adam Everett-level defense is NOT as common as you make it out to be.

2.) How many teams in the National League have hitters appreciably better than Everett at every spot in the lineup? (Hint: the number is low. Approximately, based solely on last night's box scores, two.) Everyone (except the New York Yankees, evidently) would love to have Alex Rodriguez at short, but the simple fact is that relatively few baseball players have the skill required to play shortstop defense at an acceptable level. Fewer still are also good with the bat. So when you find a player with exceptional defense and, let's face it, average bottom-of-the-order production, you put him in the lineup and get your better hitters at positions where it's easier to do so (and where poor defense hurts you less).

[Major]

At exactly what point will you say this guy's offensive bat is hurting us more than his defense is helping us? Seriously? Do you have a batting average line AE can't fall below?

You're asking the wrong question here. The proper question is in relation to your other options on the team. If you have Derek Jeter as an alternative, Everett needs to produce a lot offensively to not be replaced. If you have Eric Bruntlett as your potential replacement, the bar is really low because Bruntlett is somewhere between a mediocre and bad hitter.

Replacing AE just for the sake of it is pointless.

[Buck Turgidson]

A previous post said about 36M would bring the payroll to 120M. I don't think it would necessarily take this much to make us a contender, but let's suppose Uncle Drayton would go for it.
Don't think that's the case. Not sure what the payroll is today, but here's a look at what's coming off the books this offseason:

Ausmus, $4M
Bagwell, $7M
Biggio, $5.15M
Ensberg, $4.35M
Jennings, $5.5M
Lamb, $2.7M
Lane, $1.05M
Loretta, $2.5M
Miller, $1.3M
Palmeiro, $0.95M

Total money expiring: $34.5M.

A couple of guys will get raises in arb: Wiggington, Lidge, Qualls; Lee's contract bumps up a mil...so knock off a few million, let's say 3ish.

So that leaves ~$31M to spend on (in my perceived order of import) SP, SP, C, CF/RF, 2B, RP, bench. And that only brings the payroll back up to it's present $87M range, and there's no reason it wouldn't climb a ~5+ mil if the situation dictates. We'll see what happens.

[rterry]

Don't think that's the case. Not sure what the payroll is today, but here's a look at what's coming off the books this offseason:

Ausmus, $4M
Bagwell, $7M
Biggio, $5.15M
Ensberg, $4.35M
Jennings, $5.5M
Lamb, $2.7M
Lane, $1.05M
Loretta, $2.5M
Miller, $1.3M
Palmeiro, $0.95M

Total money expiring: $34.5M.

A couple of guys will get raises in arb: Wiggington, Lidge, Qualls; Lee's contract bumps up a mil...so knock off a few million, let's say 3ish.

So that leaves ~$31M to spend on (in my perceived order of import) SP, SP, C, CF/RF, 2B, RP, bench. And that only brings the payroll back up to it's present $87M range, and there's no reason it wouldn't climb a ~5+ mil if the situation dictates. We'll see what happens.

Great. I like your math better. If we have 50m to spend that's even easier to transform us into a contender. I do believe your ratings of our needs is correct, although I would probably put C either 1st or 2nd. I think a more reliable lineup with more consistent run production will help the pitching staff, even the one we have. I do think some of the struggles early in the season came from pitchers trying to be too fine, because they knew if they gave up 2 runs they were toast. A little relaxation can go along way with pitchers. That being said, after catcher, I would spend most my free agent money on pitchers, especially if we re-sign Loretta for 2b and Lamb for the bench.

[texanskan]

You don't want to spend money for the sake of spending money.

ok, lets spend some money on the bullpen and pray Lidge is 100% back and Qualls will get his head straight for an entire season.

SP,

Roy O
Backe (pray he stays healthy and with a few starts in September and an entire offseason he is 100%)
Patton (lets cross our fingers here)
Sampson
Woody/Wandy

too many what if's but don't go out and get a guy for the sake of getting a player just if there is a reasonable deal to be had.

lineup

cf-Pence
2b-Burke (he should bat 8th but we have AE)
1b-Berkman
Lf-Lee
Rf-Scott
3b-Wigginton
c-Munson
ss-AE
pitcher

lot of what ifs in that lineup and three to four guys who don't start on an elite team.

Just think if it were the Yanks Lee could DH, Berkman would be at first and Pence would get time in the outfield nobody else would even be on the roster let alone starting

This is time to rebuild our farm system so no crazy spending as we plug guys in while we can bring up younger better players over the next 3-4 years so as Berkman/Lee/Oswalt/Lidge all near the end of their contracts (assume Lidge gets one after next season) they can make another run.

[SamCassell]

Backe as your #2 pitcher is a joke. This team needs 2 SPs in the worst way. I'd pony up whatever it takes to get them.

And no way do we go through a rebuilding phase with Oswalt, Lee, and Berkman in their primes. If you're going to rebuild, then you trade those guys plus Lidge for whatever prospects you can get. But I'd rather see them fill the holes in the staff and work on returning to competitive baseball next season.

[Refman]

i love the whole condescending, "people who know baseball agree with me" crap. that's awesome. and by awesome i mean totally sweet.
How do you really feel about it? :D

For this one argument Max...you and I both know quite a bit about baseball...we just disagree on this one point.

No big deal.

[WoodlandsBoy]

What I would do with the 40 mil?

1st Sign Eckstein for 3yr/18 mil
2nd Sign Schilling for 2yr/20 mil
3rd Sign Freddy Garcia for 1mil + 7 mil in insentives
4th Sign Eric Gagne 3yr/24mil or Jason Isringhausen 2yr/16mil or Francisco Cordero 3yr/14mil to be closer

SP
Oswalt
Schilling
Garcia
Sampson/Backe
Williams

Long Relief
Wandy
Sampson/Backe

RP
Qualls
Lidge
Closer

Lineup
Eckstein
Pence
Berkman
Lee
Scott
Wigginton
JR Tolls/Munson
Burke

[rterry]

What I would do with the 40 mil?

1st Sign Eckstein for 3yr/18 mil
2nd Sign Schilling for 2yr/20 mil
3rd Sign Freddy Garcia for 1mil + 7 mil in insentives
4th Sign Eric Gagne 3yr/24mil or Jason Isringhausen 2yr/16mil or Francisco Cordero 3yr/14mil to be closer

SP
Oswalt
Schilling
Garcia
Sampson/Backe
Williams

Long Relief
Wandy
Sampson/Backe

RP
Qualls
Lidge
Closer

Lineup
Eckstein
Pence
Berkman
Lee
Scott
Wigginton
JR Tolls/Munson
Burke

You would never get Schilling or Garcia for those amounts. Lidge is your closer and probably will end up better than any of the other 3 at less cost. Catcher would be a much better place to upgrade offensively than short. Everette batting 8th is ok. A re-signed Loretta should start at 2b next year. By doing all this you have upgraded your offense at 2b, 3b, and catcher. Pence will start from the beginning which is also an upgrade. Spend your money on free agent starting pitching and a catcher, unless you have a chance at something really special like cabrerra or a-rod or tori hunter.

[DOMINATOR]

What I would do with the 40 mil?

1st Sign Eckstein for 3yr/18 mil
2nd Sign Schilling for 2yr/20 mil
3rd Sign Freddy Garcia for 1mil + 7 mil in insentives
4th Sign Eric Gagne 3yr/24mil or Jason Isringhausen 2yr/16mil or Francisco Cordero 3yr/14mil to be closer

SP
Oswalt
Schilling
Garcia
Sampson/Backe
Williams

Long Relief
Wandy
Sampson/Backe

RP
Qualls
Lidge
Closer

Lineup
Eckstein
Pence
Berkman
Lee
Scott
Wigginton
JR Tolls/Munson
Burke
eckstein isn't much better than everett.
schilling is old... astros already have woody williams... another 40 yr old pitcher with a weak bullpen = trainwreck
garcia is having a bad year not to mention injuries.
i'd take lidge over gagne/izzy/cordero as closer any day.

[plee]

I think Drayton will only do 10-15mil so your not going to get any top FA's. Once again you have to find a vet./mid range guy and hope he has a great season.

Plus the free agent class is not very strong other than the top 1-3 everything else is blah so it maybe wise to hold off and let the kids play and see what we really have...

[MadMax]

How do you really feel about it? :D

For this one argument Max...you and I both know quite a bit about baseball...we just disagree on this one point.

No big deal.

to be clear, that comment wasn't directed at you. you didn't say that.

[Refman]

to be clear, that comment wasn't directed at you. you didn't say that.
True...but it is worth noting that we are the two most knowledgeable baseball men I know. :D

[MadMax]

True...but it is worth noting that we are the two most knowledgeable baseball men I know. :D

hey, those who disagree with me really don't even know baseball, so it's all good. :cool: ;)

[texanskan]

Backe as your #2 pitcher is a joke. This team needs 2 SPs in the worst way. I'd pony up whatever it takes to get them.

And no way do we go through a rebuilding phase with Oswalt, Lee, and Berkman in their primes. If you're going to rebuild, then you trade those guys plus Lidge for whatever prospects you can get. But I'd rather see them fill the holes in the staff and work on returning to competitive baseball next season.

My point was to not spend like crazy this offseason on the starting rotation.

I am throwing in the towel on 2008, so I will figure out who is gonna be in the rotation with Roy. Patton/Backe/Sampson get a year to see if they can pitch/stay healthy(Backe). So I spend money on the pen and look to improve my every day lineup and bench. Then going into 2009 I know what I got and I would have a better idea of what the farm system is looking like.

At this point I make my move on serious starting pitching.

[MadMax]

I am throwing in the towel on 2008.

it's August 8, 2007. classic. :D

[Refman]

it's August 8, 2007. classic. :D
While we're at it, I am giving up the 2045 season. :D :eek:

[Nick]

Its all about 2011.

Lance will be 36, Roy will be 35, Carlos will be 34... and the final four will be in Houston!

[Akhorahil]

Don't think that's the case. Not sure what the payroll is today, but here's a look at what's coming off the books this offseason:

Ausmus, $4M
Bagwell, $7M
Biggio, $5.15M
Ensberg, $4.35M
Jennings, $5.5M
Lamb, $2.7M
Lane, $1.05M
Loretta, $2.5M
Miller, $1.3M
Palmeiro, $0.95M

Total money expiring: $34.5M.

A couple of guys will get raises in arb: Wiggington, Lidge, Qualls; Lee's contract bumps up a mil...so knock off a few million, let's say 3ish.

So that leaves ~$31M to spend on (in my perceived order of import) SP, SP, C, CF/RF, 2B, RP, bench. And that only brings the payroll back up to it's present $87M range, and there's no reason it wouldn't climb a ~5+ mil if the situation dictates. We'll see what happens.

I'm the one who posted the 36 million mark to get to 120 million. If you read my post, you would understand that it was mostly to debunk a previous post that had the Astros spending 150 million. I was throwing away tons of money just because I could. I was also trying to give people a starting point when it comes to how much money there really is to spend.

As far as your numbers. Your leaving out Carlos Lee's 1 million dollar raise next season. And I think raises in arbitration is going to be more than 3 million. It's a heck of a lot closer than the 15 million I threw away... ridiculous I know... but it served it's point then. lol

But I do find it funny that I was throwing money away and your riding the line... the difference ends up being 5 million bucks. Which happens to be the exact difference in starting points. According to what I understand the player salary is 83 million (http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/teamSalary?categoryId=71604). You said it was 88 million. Where did you get this number?

Shrugs... I guess all that matters is we all seem to agree the Astros are going to spend 30+ million in FA alone...

[redgoose]

My point was to not spend like crazy this offseason on the starting rotation.

I am throwing in the towel on 2008, so I will figure out who is gonna be in the rotation with Roy. Patton/Backe/Sampson get a year to see if they can pitch/stay healthy(Backe). So I spend money on the pen and look to improve my every day lineup and bench. Then going into 2009 I know what I got and I would have a better idea of what the farm system is looking like.

At this point I make my move on serious starting pitching.

Obviously that rotation, no matter what bats we sign won't get us to the playoffs. I do understand your point of waiting for the 2008 off season and then sign starting pitching. A simple 2 year plan to evaluate our talent does make sense in a way. The only problem is it's not that easy.

There's not always a surplus of pitching out there. Even if you offer a guy the money he wants, he still may not want to come here rather than stay with his current team, he could prefer the AL, or just want play close to home. So i think if you have the money, the need, and the opportunity to sign a stud pitcher, you have to do it then, you can't wait for next year's crop.

Mark Buherle is a perfect example of someone that took way much less money to stay in Chicago when everyone thought he would be a free agent. Zito had just got over 120 million last summer, and is stinking now. Whereas Buherle would have easily received over 100 million + in the FA market with tons of team driving up the bidding price. I bet his agent wasn't too happy. :)

So if we could get Garcia now, Schilling depending on his health, or Zambrano if Houston wants to pay the most money out of all the free agent pitchers, or anyone else than we do it now. There's no guarantees pitchers want to play for the Astros, especially if we don't improve our offense. But we have to add a star bat if we do add a star pitcher or it is a waste of money for that year.

[Buck Turgidson]

As far as your numbers. Your leaving out Carlos Lee's 1 million dollar raise next season. And I think raises in arbitration is going to be more than 3 million. It's a heck of a lot closer than the 15 million I threw away... ridiculous I know... but it served it's point then. lol
Got the OD payroll & individual #s here: http://mlbcontracts.blogspot.com/2005/01/houston-astros.html

The only arb guys they have to deal with are Qualls (400K to prolly 1.5Mish); Wiggington (2.7 to 3.5ish); Lidge (6.3 to around 7M); AE (2.8 to low 3's) & guys like Bruntlett, Backe, Munson who will get minimal raises. 3.5-4M for the arb raises & Lee's salary bump seems realistic to me.

Regardless, they'll have some cash to spend & holes to fill. Should be interesting.

[gr8-1]

The problem is that Everett is a gaping hole in the offense. You simply aren't going to sign a premium SS in the offseason. You are likely going to have to resolve this from within. Bruntlett is the best option we currently have.

I still maintain, after looking at the ESPN game logs, that Luke Scott could be a reasonable answer at RF.

Yep, it's almost 2/3s of the game for opposing pitchers. Everett/Ausmus/Pitcher.