Biggio is a first ballot lock in five years

[texanskan]

but what about Bags?

I don't think Bagwell is a first balot HOF but looking at the other eligible players his first year it will be his best shot for a while.

Anyway Biggio will go in five years from now and if I had to guess maybe Bagwell gets in 10-15 years down the road because he was good enough to be in the conversation as best first baseman during most of his playing days.

What do ya'll think?

Of course I know it would be great for the Stros to have them go in together but I'm not so sure that will happen.

[msn]

Astrosdaily.com did a rough statistical comparison of Biggio among HoF second basemen. Man, I would *really* enjoy seeing one of Bagwell (of course, the Big Hurt would have to be included as well).

I think he belongs in, but you're right that he doesn't have a very good "first ballot" case and the following years are a little stacked.

[Refman]

As much as I think Bidge is one of the greats, I disagree that he is a lock first ballot guy.

Unless your name is Nolan Ryan, there is no such thing as a lock first ballot guy.

He belongs in...and so does Bags. But I doubt they will get in on the first ballot. My guess is Bidge on the second ballot and Bags on the 3rd or 4th.

[Mr. Mooch]

Biggio gets in first ballot; not to be ignorant, but who else would compete with him?

And didn't ESPN do an article about potential future HOFers about 4 or 5 years ago in a Page 2? Bagwell's chances were rated higher than Biggio (of course Bagwell wasn't as useless at the time).

Speaking of such, not sure why so many people are down on the chances for a guy like Smoltz; seems like a lock to me (not first ballot though).

[msn]

As much as I think Bidge is one of the greats, I disagree that he is a lock first ballot guy.
I disagree; he's among the greatest 2nd basemen all time, even considering the late decline defensively and offensively. Well, let me quantify: he is inarguably (IMO) qualified as a first-ballot inductee; whether the writers who vote have their heads shoved in the sand is a whole other issue.

Unless your name is Nolan Ryan, there is no such thing as a lock first ballot guy.
Koufax? Ted Williams? Babe Ruth? Hank Aaron? Roger Clemens? Randy Johnson? Ripken? Joe Morgan. Bob Gibson. Lou Gehrig. There *is* such a thing IMO, and there are different levels of players who deserve in on their first ballot. Biggio belongs in his first year, but he's not in that super-elite class with Rogers Hornsby, Lou Gehrig, Ted Williams, and the Babe, et. al.

He belongs in...and so does Bags. But I doubt they will get in on the first ballot.
And if he doesn't, it's a travesty that lies squarely on the shoulders of the writers who are responsible for casting the ballots.

[A-Train]

It's a shame Bagwell didn't get some romantic number for a stat category to help his hall of fame chances. The power discrepancy between Bagwell and Biggio is obvious, but if you look at the 162 game averages, the only two contact stats that Biggio beats Bagwell on are hits (175 to 174) and doubles (38 to 37), and that is not counting this season, so those numbers might drop a little. Bagwell beats Biggio in average, bb/k ratio, and OBP. Not to mention that Bagwell was a slugger in one of the most cavernous pitchers' parks in baseball history for over half his career. Biggio has over four full seasons' worth of games on Bagwell. How many homers could Bagwell have hit in four seasons without his shoulder problems? 80? 100? I think they're both first ballot HOFers.

As for the steroids issue, I don't think I've ever heard Bagwell's name mentioned in any steroids related story. He's never even been remotely connected. When Bagwell is up for induction, hopefully the voters will have forgotten about the "steroid era" a little bit.

Oh yeah, and for the first three years of his career, Bagwell was hit by more pitches. ;)

[Refman]

I disagree; he's among the greatest 2nd basemen all time, even considering the late decline defensively and offensively. Well, let me quantify: he is inarguably (IMO) qualified as a first-ballot inductee; whether the writers who vote have their heads shoved in the sand is a whole other issue.


Koufax? Ted Williams? Babe Ruth? Hank Aaron? Roger Clemens? Randy Johnson? Ripken? Joe Morgan. Bob Gibson. Lou Gehrig. There *is* such a thing IMO, and there are different levels of players who deserve in on their first ballot. Biggio belongs in his first year, but he's not in that super-elite class with Rogers Hornsby, Lou Gehrig, Ted Williams, and the Babe, et. al.


And if he doesn't, it's a travesty that lies squarely on the shoulders of the writers who are responsible for casting the ballots.
Allow me to clarify. I believe the Bidge should be in first ballot, no question. I just doubt it will go down that way.

The writers seldom vote somebody in first ballot. Hell, even Nolan Ryan wasn't unanimous.

Getting in on the first ballot has become fairly rare.

[Kerfeld]

Biggio is an absolute lock. During his run to 3000 he was mentioned numerous times by different national writers as a first ballot hall of famer. I really didnt believe that he would be until I started reading all of the pub he was receiving.

Biggio has some impressive career totals. Biggio also should have won the MVP in 1998. I know McGwire and Sosa were locked into their home run chase and all, but Biggio was the best player. If I remember correctly Biggio had 50 doubles and 50 steals that year.

[ryan17wagner]

As much as I think Bidge is one of the greats, I disagree that he is a lock first ballot guy.

Unless your name is Nolan Ryan, there is no such thing as a lock first ballot guy.

He belongs in...and so does Bags. But I doubt they will get in on the first ballot. My guess is Bidge on the second ballot and Bags on the 3rd or 4th.


Every member who got his 3,000th hit after 1943 has been a first ballot hall of famer.
First Ballot:

Cal Ripken Jr.
Tony Gwynn
Wade Boggs
Paul Moliter
Eddie Murray
Dave Winfield
George Brett
Robin Yount
Rod Carew
Honus Wagner
Ty Cobb
Stan Musial
Hank Aaron
Willie Mays
Roberto Clemente
Al Kaline
Lou Brock
Carl Yastrzemski

Not First Ballot:
Tris Speaker
Nap Lajoie
Eddie Collins
Paul Waner
Cap Anson

Not eligble yet:
Rickey Henderson
Rafael Palmeiro
Craig Biggio

Banned:
Pete Rose

The last time a member of the 3,000 hit club who wasn't a first ballot hall of famer was Paul Waner in 1952. He retired in 1945.

Biggio is a definite first ballot hall of famer.

[robbie380]

As for the steroids issue, I don't think I've ever heard Bagwell's name mentioned in any steroids related story. He's never even been remotely connected. When Bagwell is up for induction, hopefully the voters will have forgotten about the "steroid era" a little bit.


a-train i loved bagwell growing up and i still love how he played but the guy juiced. i don't have a problem with it but it's just a reality. he is very lucky to have avoided the whole steroid controversy but you just don't change your body that much without help. it's especially obvious when you see how much his body has deflated. i have been on 1-AD which is pretty close to steroids in a pill form and it made me go from skinny a 155 to a solid 180 in about a month. those gains were after i had tried everything else to gain mass. anyone who has used those kinds of drugs can tell you it's pretty clear bags was on something.

that being said i think both are first ballot HOFs and biggio even more when compared to other 2Bs.

[BigM]

Allow me to clarify. I believe the Bidge should be in first ballot, no question. I just doubt it will go down that way.

The writers seldom vote somebody in first ballot. Hell, even Nolan Ryan wasn't unanimous.

Getting in on the first ballot has become fairly rare.



i understand what you're saying but you're being too pessimistic. while there are a few shady and/or dumb as sh!t hall of fame voters, biggio's case is air-tight. he won't get 100% because no one does but he'll get in first ballot easily.

bagwell won't. i think he deserves to be there as much as biggio does, and will one day get in, but i'm not gonna make a guess on when. the steroid era probably hurts him a lot regardless of his name being ever mentioned.

[No Worries]

Biggio and Bonds may be on the same first ballot. That could help Biggio.

[shipwreck]

you can place bidge alongside ripken, sandberg, gwynn statistically. well truthfully gwynn has better hitting numbers and rarely struck out, plus cal has his iron man untouchable record so they have obviously earned their first ballot but bidge has the hbp record and 2b's plus great fielding pctgs, no to mention the 3000.

but bags, he won the mvp, roy and was close in mvp several other times, plus .540 slugging. other than that he didnt hit 500 hr's and career batting avg. is under .300. clearly a power hitter and i think he had enough power seasons in the 90s to be a second ballot.

[VesceySux]

Biggio and Bonds may be on the same first ballot. That could help Biggio.

Don't forget Randy Johnson.

[rocketsjudoka]

One of the Chron blogs made a comparison between Biggio and Ryan Sandberg

http://blogs.chron.com/unofficialscorer/

and according to that Biggio should be a lock. A couple of problems that I see might crop up is that 5 years from now the emotion of the run to 3,000 will be gone and Houston never seems to get the attention compared to other cities. It annoys the hell out of me but as far as national attention goes playing your whole career in Houston doesn't seem to help.

[justtxyank]

It's only rare for someone to get in on the first ballot because there aren't worthy players ever year. When a worthy player gets up for election, he makes it.

Wade Boggs, Cal Ripken, Tony Gywnn, etc. Name a player in the last 20 years who SHOULD have been a first ballot guy and didn't get in?

Baseball voters are very good at the HOF process with a few outliers. There are of course a handful of voters who say that since there has never been a unanimous guy before, they refuse to vote for someone on the first ballot. Oh well. Deserving guys still get in.

[Ric]

unfortunately, we're going to need esteemed, influential baseball writers to pump up bagwell's case because, as great as he was beyond his numbers (remembering he played for many years in the dome), he will pale in comparison to some of his contemporaries, rendering him more ordinary. and god forbid if justice is bagwell's champion.

bill james rates him a 149.5 on his scale of HoF worthiness (with 100 being "likely Hall of Famer"). for 10 years, he was the best all-around 1B in baseball and he's the second-best NL 1B ever (behind puljos). i think he's a no-brainer, but it wouldn't shock me if fans/writers outside of houston didn't share that opinion.

[leroy420]

a-train i loved bagwell growing up and i still love how he played but the guy juiced. i don't have a problem with it but it's just a reality. he is very lucky to have avoided the whole steroid controversy but you just don't change your body that much without help. it's especially obvious when you see how much his body has deflated. i have been on 1-AD which is pretty close to steroids in a pill form and it made me go from skinny a 155 to a solid 180 in about a month. those gains were after i had tried everything else to gain mass. anyone who has used those kinds of drugs can tell you it's pretty clear bags was on something.

that being said i think both are first ballot HOFs and biggio even more when compared to other 2Bs.

Firstly, you don't know what Bagwell did or didn't do. It's not like he got big overnight. He "deflated" as you put it because he couldn't lift weights any more due to his shoulder. With or without roids, the body reacts quickly when it is not being worked. It is entirely possible to gain mass without drugs in an offseason. It is entirely possible to maintain it without drugs. You have to be a hard worker and do things the right way.

I'm not saying he didn't, but you cannot say he definintely did it without any proof whatsoever. Is it possible? Yes. Do you or I know? Absolutely not.

[msn]

Firstly, you don't know what Bagwell did or didn't do. It's not like he got big overnight. He "deflated" as you put it because he couldn't lift weights any more due to his shoulder. With or without roids, the body reacts quickly when it is not being worked. It is entirely possible to gain mass without drugs in an offseason. It is entirely possible to maintain it without drugs. You have to be a hard worker and do things the right way.

I'm not saying he didn't, but you cannot say he definintely did it without any proof whatsoever. Is it possible? Yes. Do you or I know? Absolutely not.
Thank you. It is completely idiotic of anyone to dogmatically state that Bagwell did or did not.

That said, he didn't. :D

[MadMax]

The writers seldom vote somebody in first ballot.

Not true for 3,000 Hit Club Members.

[texanskan]

Just heard that douch Skip BaylASS say Biggio is not a hall of famer. And if the hall of fame opened a good guy wing he would be in

[leroy420]

Allow me to clarify. I believe the Bidge should be in first ballot, no question. I just doubt it will go down that way.

The writers seldom vote somebody in first ballot. Hell, even Nolan Ryan wasn't unanimous.

Getting in on the first ballot has become fairly rare.

There simply are some writers that believe that if Babe Ruth wasn't unanimous, no one should be. There is no chance in hell that Biggio is a unanimous selection. He will be in on the first ballot by a wide margin.

[TMac640]

Just heard that douch Skip BaylASS say Biggio is not a hall of famer. And if the hall of fame opened a good guy wing he would be in

just got through watching that garbage skip calls intelligent sports commentary. what a douchebag.

[rocketsjudoka]

i think he's a no-brainer, but it wouldn't shock me if fans/writers outside of houston didn't share that opinion.

That's what I'm worried about for Bagwell. The other problems I see are he won his MVP during the strike shortened season and has done poorly in the playoffs and was injured in his only World Series appearance.

[Ric]

That's what I'm worried about for Bagwell. The other problems I see are he won his MVP during the strike shortened season and has done poorly in the playoffs and was injured in his only World Series appearance.
i think bagwell's going to struggle to get in, and it wouldn't shock me if never does get in.

personally, i think he's a lock. i'm just not sure .297/449/1,529/.948 and 6 top 10 finishes in the MVP voting are going to "wow" anyone in this era, especially since trying to convince someone he was probably the best running first baseman in history (off the top of my head) and a consistently terrific fielder is hard to do.

[Supermac34]

Bagwell also is the owner of one of the greatest statistical seasons of ALL TIME. Even though it was strike shortened, it ranks up there for 1994.

[Ric]

Bagwell also is the owner of one of the greatest statistical seasons of ALL TIME. Even though it was strike shortened, it ranks up there for 1994.
.368/39/116/1.201

what's amazing, and problematic, is that frank thomas posted nearly the exact same #s that very same year: .353/38/101/1.216, and has had the better career overall. bagwell seems destined to get lost in the shuffle.

[wrath_of_khan]

.368/39/116/1.201

what's amazing, and problematic, is that frank thomas posted nearly the exact same #s that very same year: .353/38/101/1.216, and has had the better career overall. bagwell seems destined to get lost in the shuffle.

Don't forget Bagwell's .750 SLG percentage in 1994. .750!!!

Funny thing is, though, if the season had been completed, Bags wouldn't have been the MVP because his season was over when he broke his wrist.

Check out his game by game logs in 1994. (http://www.baseball-almanac.com/players/hittinglogs.php?p=bagweje01&y=1994) Dude hit .394/.455/.899 in June and .409/.509/.875 in July!

I remember checking the box scores that summer and it seemed like he was 3-5 with a 2b and HR every other day...

And, oh yeah, Biggio is a 1st ballot lock in 5 years ;)

[Ric]

Don't forget Bagwell's .750 SLG percentage in 1994. .750!!!
but again... thomas slugged .729 that year and was .600+ the year before and the next three years after. bagwell finished above .600 just once more in his career.

like i said: he deserves to go in, imo. but his numbers - even his very best numbers - are rendered less spectacular by some of the #s other players of that era put up. i know bags was stuck in the dome, but it's going to take a rob neyer or some such to really push hard to help him stand out more.

[wrath_of_khan]

but again... thomas slugged .729 that year and was .600+ the year before and the next three years after. bagwell finished above .600 just once more in his career.


I actually wasn't commenting on the Bagwell/Thomas comparison or Bags' HOF chances, just the amazing season that Bagwell had in 1994.

[MadMax]

but again... thomas slugged .729 that year and was .600+ the year before and the next three years after. bagwell finished above .600 just once more in his career.

like i said: he deserves to go in, imo. but his numbers - even his very best numbers - are rendered less spectacular by some of the #s other players of that era put up. i know bags was stuck in the dome, but it's going to take a rob neyer or some such to really push hard to help him stand out more.

but...

stolen bases

defensive prowess

comparison to the great 1B in NL history.

[Ric]

but...
oh, *i* think he's a no doubt hall of famer. i've said for years he's the best all-around NL 1b of all-time (this was, obviously, before puljos rumbled onto the scene; i'd still rank him 2nd).

but he's the kind of player where, while still impressive, #s don't really tell the whole story since it's hard to quantify how smart a player he was, how good a defensive first baseman he was, etc. so i fear people are going to look at his final numbers (.297/449/1,529/.948) and, in comparison to other players of this era (like a frank thomas), find them rather "ordinary." if he could have stayed even semi-healthy, he would have zoomed past 500 HRs last year. had he done that... he's probably a lock.

[justtxyank]

Bagwell will struggle to get in because he didn't reach one of the sexy statistical milestones. Those serve as the first ticket. I'd say it's very unlikely that he makes it in his first year of eligibility.

When you look at what he did compared to the numbers of the players who were his contemporaries, he just doesn't wow you without digging through circumstances. That's going to hurt him.

[shipwreck]

Bagwell will struggle to get in because he didn't reach one of the sexy statistical milestones. Those serve as the first ticket. I'd say it's very unlikely that he makes it in his first year of eligibility.

When you look at what he did compared to the numbers of the players who were his contemporaries, he just doesn't wow you without digging through circumstances. That's going to hurt him.

i agree, the sub .300 ba and sub 500 hr will detract, also his strongest season being the strike. also, bags had several great seasons other than the 94 where he landed high in mvp voting, and a career slug .540 that could help. also, arguably he was the bigger star during their prime (of the killer b's) even though bgo has claimed the franchise hat of recent. plus, bags won ROY and was arguably one of the best fielding/hitting 1b in an era stacked with power 1b.

another important note, bagwell played 14 real seasons (15 if u count the burnout final year), so perhaps the voters will take this as their grain of salt when weighing how important those milestones are to HOF standards. my guess, he's a third ballot, while biggio is of course a first.

[wrath_of_khan]

Well, ESPN writer Jonah Keri thinks Bagwell is in:

2011 Jeff Bagwell (.948 OPS, 1994 MVP): In an era clogged with slugging first basemen, Bagwell's on-base ability (.408 career OBP), handy glovework and huge peak seasons stand out against his peers.

2013 Craig Biggio (3,014 hits, 1,826 runs): Another all-around threat who did everything well, and for a long time. Bill James famously called him the second-best player of the 1990s. Not sure about that, but you could make a strong case for Top 5.

http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/story?page=keri/070725