Astros' Needs

[htownbball]

With all of the trade talk...errr...or lack thereof, let's assess the needs.

C
SP
CF/RF
3B

Ausmus is in the last year of his contract, and he's probably not gonna be much help even if he resigns for another year. Hector Gimenez was injured, and even when healthy, his bat has been a question. Eric Munson? Pshh.

We have alot of arms, but none are actually reliable. Jennings is a potential FA, and we haven't heard too much about resigning him. Oswalt and Sampson are the only guys we can really count on. Albers is overrated IMO, and I don't see why FO is so high on him. Wandy has been up and down and Williams has been a bust. Juan Gutierrez and Troy Patton are the only guys who could be ready by next year, but Juan still needs more polishing and Troy is still just a 21 year old kid.

Pence has been great, and his defense isn't as bad as scouts have said, but we need another starting outfielder. Luke Scott has been a real disappointment, and we could use a leadoff hitter for next year (Burke...meh). If we could land a CF who could leadoff, that'd be nice.

3B...Mike Lamb's bat has always been pretty reliable, but his defense leaves alot to be desired. He's not bad at 1B, but his hands are rocks at 3B. We could start Lamb and then sub with Ensberg in late innings defensively, but we really need to find a 3B who can handle the offensive and defensive responsibilities.

Since we have limited trade assets, we can't really solve all of our problems. Trading anything of value would create another hole somewhere else.

Possibilities?

Kelly Shoppach has been blocked by Varitek and Martinez. Cleveland needs relief help.

Trevor Crowe has been struggling, but he was really on the fast track until this year. He can play CF and has some legit leadoff skills (plate discipline, speed, and used to hit for average)

Adam Jones/Wladimir Balentien: The Mariners might be making a playoff push, but they might need some pitching. They can't rely on Morrow (rookie) and Reitsma in the playoffs.

Jeff Clement and Jarrod Saltalamacchia are both gonna start with Brad Lidge, but they're the top bats at catcher.

Andy Laroche is blocked by Nomar, but they probably dont wanna trade Laroche. They do need some starting pitching, which would mean Jennings.


If we do trade Lidge, we could probably get Shoppach and Crowe from Cleveland. They could also use Loretta since Barfield is hitting .255 with 2 homers, but I'd probably ask for Jeremy Sowers in return (they already have 5 starters and Adam Miller waiting). May be asking for a bit much for Loretta, but Sowers has not done well this year.

Not too many options as 3B in FA next year, and there arent many major league ready prospects either outside of Laroche and Ian Stewart of Colorado. Best option would be to keep Lamb.

With the scarcity of starting pitching in FA, and the reluctance of teams to give up young major league ready guys, we'd probably be better off by keeping Jennings.

[Nick]

I would see what they have already in Towles and Patton before going out and trading for more unproven players at those positions.

As for 3B, its tough... ideally, Lamb/Loretta could continue to split time there once Everett comes back healthy.

The club could invest money in a readily available corner OF... or they could invest it in more pitching (still need to shore up the bullpen).

[bigboymumu]

I would see what they have already in Towles and Patton before going out and trading for more unproven players at those positions.

As for 3B, its tough... ideally, Lamb/Loretta could continue to split time there once Everett comes back healthy.

The club could invest money in a readily available corner OF... or they could invest it in more pitching (still need to shore up the bullpen).

That would not be a bad idea.

2b Burke
cf Pence
1b Berkman
lf Lee
3rd Loretta/Lamb
RF A STUD via trade
C Towles/trade
SS Everett
P Oswalt

RP
LIDGE
Wheeler or Qualls (one gets traded)
Paulino
Estrada
Wandy(please move him out of the rotation)

Starters
Oswalt
FA or Trade
Patton
Sampson/Backe
Woody

[RocketFan007]

And what do you propose we give up to get this stud RF via trade?

[tested911]

It all starts at the top boys...

Astros Needs = NEW OWNER!!!!!

[htownbball]

I would see what they have already in Towles and Patton before going out and trading for more unproven players at those positions.

As for 3B, its tough... ideally, Lamb/Loretta could continue to split time there once Everett comes back healthy.

The club could invest money in a readily available corner OF... or they could invest it in more pitching (still need to shore up the bullpen).

its gonna take an amazing spring training for towles to make the club. he's got a half season of AA under his belt. they better promote him before the end of the year so he and patton can work together and gel. patton may not even be ready yet (he got pounded yesterday)

i think shoppach would be the easiest and most ready option. qualls or wheeler could probably get shoppach+filler...maybe if we're lucky, they'd accept qualls/wheeler and loretta for shoppach and crowe.

joe crede or josh fields may be available. not sure what it would take though.

[msn]

joe crede
He and his frikkin mullet once ruined a perfectly delightful week in October for me. :(

WANDY (please remove him from the rotation)
Wandy's a starter. When he's been in the 'pen, he's been lousy--IIRC. Wandy at the five would be fine, possibly even at the four, if he continues to improve.

[htownbball]

oswalt
jennings (we'll resign him if we dont deal him, only to save face from the hirsh/willy trade)
sampson

and then...

wandy
williams
albers
backe
patton
gutierrez

6 pitchers fighting for 2 spots. i think williams gets one of them just because well...i dunno why, but i doubt he goes anywhere. could old age and uselessness be reason to put him on the DL?

patton and gutierrez are on the short end just cuz theyre still in AAA.


so backe, albers, and wandy for 1 spot.

albers is so inconsistent and hasnt shown he can throw strikes. i think we can get something for him, but FO might just wanna keep him because he's from htown

backe is coming off tommy john.

wandy is well...wandy. thing is, he's either really good, or really bad. no in between. he's also the only lefty in our rotation.

[DOMINATOR]

too bad astros just didn't sign Iwamura and Johjima :D

[rhino17]

RP
LIDGE
Wheeler or Qualls (one gets traded)
Paulino
Estrada
Wandy(please move him out of the rotation)

Starters
Oswalt
FA or Trade
Patton
Sampson/Backe
Woody
I would take Wandy in the rotation over Woody and day.

[DaDakota]

Astros needs:

GM

[hatemavs4life]

joe crede or josh fields may be available. not sure what it would take though.

One problem with Crede, he's trying to comeback from back surgery. Generally, once you mess with the back, it only goes downhill from there especially considering the pounding it will take in a 162 game grind year in and year out. Don't think that a move for Crede would be wise.

[hatemavs4life]

I would take Wandy in the rotation over Woody and day.

Agreed. Wandy is showing better composure than the past two years. Though, his last appearance he got rocked. Woody maybe can push out this year and next year with grit and guile.

[htownbball]

One problem with Crede, he's trying to comeback from back surgery. Generally, once you mess with the back, it only goes downhill from there especially considering the pounding it will take in a 162 game grind year in and year out. Don't think that a move for Crede would be wise.

true, i forgot about that.

[hatemavs4life]

Astros needs:

GM

Purpura is showing a hard time letting go of players he believed were going to be key pieces to the Astros' future. Ensberg, and Lane just don't have it. It's time to let them go. Purpura is letting personal sentiment cloud his judgement rationalizing instead they need more time and seasoning. NO they just don't have the skills to play in the majors. Defense will only carry so far, you have to be able to drive in runs and keep rallies alive. Clutch is a word that is foreign to these two. :rolleyes: It's time to send them somewhere else, Timmy! They don't fit here.

[bigboymumu]

I would take Wandy in the rotation over Woody and day.

Wandy is not getting paid what Woody is.

[No Worries]

http://astrosprospects.blogspot.com/

With the current Astros playing like they're in Round Rock, it looks more likely that the Astros will be sellers, rather than buyers at the trade deadline. Oswalt and Lidge are going to stay put, unless there's an offer on the table that Purpura can't refuse. Rumors have the Mets throwing out crazy trade scenarios. The Astros are in desperate need of a catching prospect that is major league ready. My guess is Purpura wants 3 or 4 of their best prospects that are catchers, SP's, or infielders. The thing is out of their top ten prospects, they only have one infielder and no catchers. The rest are outfielders or pitchers. You can't go wrong with pitching but if you're giving up Oswalt or Lidge, who are worth multiple premium prospects, then you want help in more areas than just pitching. It's almost the same story with the Red Sox. I definitely wouldn't mind getting pitching phenom Clay Buccholz or, their outstanding future centerfielder, Jacoby Ellsbury but they don't have a major-league-ready catcher, 3b, or 2b in their top ten prospects. They do have Justin Pedroia at SS but with him on the team now, and how well they're playing, they won't want to make any changes with the lineup. With this in mind, it seems unlikely that Oswalt or Lidge will be traded but look for Wheeler, Qualls, Loretta, and Lamb to be moved.

[Ric]

you left off: a lead-off hitter and better overall team defense. and by "SP" did you mean one...? because they're going to need 2 top of the rotation starters.

[htownbball]

you left off: a lead-off hitter and better overall team defense. and by "SP" did you mean one...? because they're going to need 2 top of the rotation starters.

how the hell do you expect the astros to get 2 top of the rotation starters? theres pretty much nobody in FA next year.

[JaWindex]

how the hell do you expect the astros to get 2 top of the rotation starters? theres pretty much nobody in FA next year.

They will be hard to get, but that doesn't mean they aren't a necessity...

[rrj_gamz]

Well I'm assuming besides a coach and a GM...;)

Where do we go from here? Who knows, but its so hard to think we can come out of the all-star break and go 1-5 and still have a chance...:(

A consistent pitcher who gets outs and another bat for timely hitting...

[Ric]

how the hell do you expect the astros to get 2 top of the rotation starters? theres pretty much nobody in FA next year.
you asked for needs, not solutions. but hopefully they'll be able to solve a few of their needs internally - if burke can step up and post an .800-ish OPS at the top of the line-up and add soem range in the field, he quickly helps solve two of our bigger problems (along with AE's healthy return).

then, if one of the young pitchers could emerge as a top of the rotation talent, we'd then need only to find another pitcher via FA, a good defensive CF or RF who can play everyday and a power-hitting, middle of the line-up RBI producer at 3b or RF, which we might be able to do via trade (ie lidge).

[Mr. Clutch]

Need to bench biggio permanently.

[No Worries]

Need to bench biggio permanently.
but the opportunity cost is Burke's loss of confidence (and trade value).

[Buck Turgidson]

you asked for needs, not solutions. but hopefully they'll be able to solve a few of their needs internally - if burke can step up and post an .800-ish OPS at the top of the line-up and add soem range in the field, he quickly helps solve two of our bigger problems (along with AE's healthy return).
Let's hope so...leadoff is their biggest offensive problem going into next year.

Well, that and the return of the player formerly known as Lance Berkman.

Lamb or Loretta at 3rd & batting 2nd wouldn't be a total disaster next season (can't fix everything at once). It would also heighten the need for AE to come back healthy.

Need a veteran stopgap catcher for 1-2 years, until Towles is ready (who, as a prospect, is not too far behind guys like Clement & Salty). Unless someone really special becomes available, but that's kinda unlikely.

Then there's the pitching staff....

[A-Train]

Need to bench biggio permanently.

With him about to break the all time record for HBPs? Blasphemy...

Maybe the Astros can pay a few pitchers to bean him a few times...

[No Worries]

Let's hope so...leadoff is their biggest offensive problem going into next year.

Well, that and the return of the player formerly known as Lance Berkman.
.230 Burke
.225 Ensberg
.229 Scott
.261 Berkman

4 of the 8 position 'starters' are underperforming. I only have hope for Berkman to bounce back next year (though I am very concerned with the huge drop off in his production in a single year).

[No Worries]

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/features/263295.html
Astros Top Ten Prospects
By Jim Callis
February 7, 2007

Baseball America's Top 10 Prospects lists are based on projections of a player's long-term worth after discussions with scouting and player-development personnel. All players who haven't exceeded the major league rookie standards of 130 at-bats or 50 innings pitched (without regard to service time) are eligible. Ages are as of April 1, 2007.

1. Hunter Pence, of
2. Troy Patton, lhp
3. Matt Albers, rhp
4. Jimmy Barthmaier, rhp
5. Juan Gutierrez, rhp
6. J.R. Towles, c
7. Paul Estrada, rhp
8. Felipe Paulino, rhp
9. Max Sapp, c
10. Chad Reineke, rhp

[No Worries]

2007 Top 100 Prospects (http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/features/263445.html)
By Baseball America Staff
February 28, 2007

38 HUNTER PENCE, of, Astros
58 TROY PATTON, lhp, Astros
85 MATT ALBERS, rhp, Astros

[No Worries]

2007 Top Ten Prospects (http://www.orangewhoopass.com/forums/index.php?topic=97655.0)
Last year's top 10 saw five of them reach the big leagues. #1 Hirsh was PCL Pitcher of the Year and made a so-so major league debut. Of course, we all know he was dealt to Colorado in the Jason Jennings deal. #2 Nieve, #4 Buchholz, and #9 Albers also made big league appearances. Nieve stands a good chance of being in Houston for 2007. Albers will be covered later. Buchholz was included in the Jennings deal. #10 Zobrist was dealt to Tampa Bay in the Huff deal and was subsequently promoted to the majors. #3 Patton, #5 Pence, and #8 Gutierrez had very good seasons. #6 James Barthmaier was inconsistent. And #7 Bogusevic barely got out of the blocks. We also gave you lesser known names to watch. We missed badly on Davis as he was released before the season started. We nailed Estrada, Parraz, Reineke, and Torbert. We were close on McLemore but the lefty didn't bounce back from arm surgery quite as well as we had hoped. We missed on Frias, Hart, Johnson, and McKeller.

As we move to this year's top 10, you'll notice once again that the list is dominated by pitchers. There are five new faces on this list and a bit of shuffling around with the one's repeating from last year. Two notes. First, as always, we considered only prospects from full-season leagues. Second, as you'll read more about later, there is a lack of high-end talent in the Astros system. This led us to have a great deal of difficulty nailing down the last few spots in the top 10. Those players we might have listed at #11, #12, or #13 could easily have been in 8-10 given just slightly different circumstances. As you'll see, the Astros have few if any ?can?t miss? prospects in the system. That won?t be helped by the fact that the Astros don?t have a first or second round pick in the upcoming 2007 draft. But that will be further addressed in the 2007 draft review. We now present to you the Minor Opinions top 10 prospects for 2007.

1. Hunter Pence: 4/13/83. Pence moves from #5 last year to #1 on the list this year. Pence spent the 2006 season at Corpus Christi and was the rock in the Texas League Champion Hooks lineup. He had an up and down year at the plate though, starting the season red hot, then slumping badly, then finishing the season with a .283 average. He finished the season with a .357 on-base percentage and a .533 slugging percentage. His work could not have been helped by the loss first of his table setter Ben Zobrist in the Aubrey Huff trade and then the promotion of clean-up hitter J.R. House. By all accounts Pence has improved his defensive play. He spent nearly the entire season in right field. We already know he has good speed, but Hunter improved his work on reading the ball off the bat and getting better jumps. His arm strength has improved and could be adequate at the major league level. Pence stepped up his hitting in the Texas League post-season recording a .387 average, smacking 5 doubles, scoring 7 runs, and driving in 9 runs. After the Texas League season the Astros sent Pence on an unexpectedly abbreviated trip to the Arizona Fall League. In 62 at-bats Hunter his .339 with a .379 OBP and a .565 SLG. His season ended when the Astros sent him home after being arrested for DUI. The DUI has been hashed and rehashed so we won?t go into it here. We?ve heard nothing to suggest the Astros will punish him during Spring Training or in the 2007 regular season. Pence should be manning right field for the Round Rock Express to start the 2007 season, and as Purpura has mentioned Pence as a possible center field candidate for Houston may see action in center at Round Rock as well. He needs to show he can hit against more mature and experienced pitchers at the AAA level. Any subsequent call-up would require him to be put on the 40-man roster and likely injuries to multiple Astros. And, barring injury or trade should have an excellent shot at the Astros 2008 right field or center field job.

2. Troy Patton: 9/3/85. Patton moves up the list from #3 to #2. Troy remains the Astros top lefty and justified that with a very good 2006 season. He spent the first 2/3 of the season at Salem. There he threw 101 1/3 innings, registering a 2.93 ERA and 102 strikeouts. He gave up 92 hits and 37 walks. Thanks to player movement in Corpus and his fine work at Salem, Patton was elevated to AA in July. AA proved to be a bit more of a challenge for Troy. Texas League hitters racked up 48 hits over Patton?s 45 1/3 innings. Patton finished with a Texas League ERA of 4.37. He allowed 13 walks but continued to demonstrate the ability to strike out hitters with 37 ponches. Patton pitched in 2 playoff games, getting the win in the opening game of the playoffs and getting blasted in the final game before the Hooks came back to win it. Like Pence, following the regular season the Astros sent Patton to the AFL. He had an up and down AFL season. Over 15 innings (9 games), he allowed 8 earned runs. But, 7 of those runs came in just 5 1/3 innings over 3 games. Meaning, he threw nearly 10 innings of 1 earned run ball in his other 6 games. He walked too many, 8, but again had the strike out pitches going registering 17 strike outs. Still, his talent was evident in being rated the 11th best prospect in the AFL. In 2006 Patton showed an alarming propensity to give up fly balls relative to ground balls. We?d like to see him improve his ability to induce ground outs more regularly. He needs to continue to mature, show continued durability, and maintain consistency with his pitches over the course of the season. We expect him to begin the 2007 season at Corpus Christi unless he has a monster spring training and Garner convinces Purpura to let him have Troy in Houston.

3. Matt Albers: 1/20/83. Albers jumps from 9 to 3 on the strength of a standout roller coaster ride of a 2006 season. As you all know, Albers was called up to the Astros in July of 2006. He was called up because of an outstanding season at Corpus Christi which earned him Texas League Pitcher of the Year honors. Logging 116 innings in the hitter friendly league, Albers posted a sparkling 2.17 ERA. He allowed 96 hits and 47 walks but struck out 97. Upon his promotion to Houston, Albers pitched in 3 ballgames. His first two outing were against Cincinnati. Combined he threw 5 1/3 innings of shutout, 3 hit ball in July. His third outing, against San Diego, did not go well. He gave up 5 earned over 5 innings. However, his quality pitches were fully on display as he gave hints of his capabilities. He was subsequently demoted to Round Rock in August. For the Express Albers had 3 excellent starts and 1 terrible start. He finished with 25 innings, giving up 24 hits and 10 walks while striking out 26. He had a non-representative 3.96 ERA. Albers was again called up to Houston when rosters expanded only to see no time on the hill. He was sent back down to Round Rock for the PCL playoffs. In the playoffs, Albers started two games and was the hard luck loser in the second. Albers like Patton and Pence was then sent to the AFL. Like Patton, Albers? work there was up and down. During the course of his stay there, he pitched in 6 games. He gave up 7 earned over 7 innings over 3 outings and 0 earned over 9 innings over the other 3 games. Matt needs to continue the good work of 2006. The Astros will be looking for consistency and maturity from Matt. We expect Matt to start the season at Round Rock with at least one call-up to Houston during the season. He could, though, with a strong spring, earn a spot on the Houston staff out of spring training.

4. Juan Gutierrez: 7/14/83. Moving from #8 last year to #4 this year, Gutierrez showed that when he?s on the mound he can be outstanding. He handled Texas League hitters in 2006 without much problem. Throwing 103 2/3 innings, Gutierrez struck out 106 batters while allowing 94 hits and 34 walks. He finished with a 3.04 ERA. Gutierrez won the only playoff game he pitched besting Royals pitcher Zach Greinke. In December Gutierrez went to the Venezuelan Winter League and threw successfully in just 2 games. In the VWL playoffs, Juan threw 14 innings, giving up 16 hits, 8 earned runs, walked 5, and struck out just 4. We say ?when he?s on the mound? because Juan spent 6 weeks of the 2006 season on the disabled list with what was listed as arm fatigue. On top of that, Gutierrez?s lack of strike outs and poor VWL playoff showing have us wondering if his arm troubles have returned. We mentioned last year that Gutierrez had stamina issues that he needed to work on. Well, he needs to work on his durability if he hopes to join the Astros starting rotation. He also could stand to improve, like most pitching prospects, his off-speed pitches. We expect to see him with Albers in the Round Rock rotation to start 2007.

5. Jimmy Barthmaier: 1/6/84. Another Astros farmhand, another up and down season. Barthmaier moves from #6 to #5 on our list thanks to big talent and a big finish to the 2006 season. Jimmy?s 2006 season is also a study in not looking at the overall statistics of minor leaguers especially below AA. He finished the season with a 3.62 ERA over 146 2/3 innings. He struck out 134, most in the Carolina League, and allowed 137 hits and 67 walks, the latter most in the Carolina League. What you cannot tell in those statistics is how good and bad his season was. He started out April pitching fairly well, about in line with his overall statistics. Then he fell apart pitching very poorly from May through the Carolina League ASB in late June. He had lost confidence and subsequently his mechanics were not quite right. After the ASB Barthmaier started to turn things around. His first two starts in July were shaky but fairly successful. Regaining confidence and righting the mechanics, from July 15 on Barthmaier was fabulous, especially in August. In August Jimmy threw 31 1/3 innings giving up just 20 hits and 10 walks. The walk rate was a definite improvement over his work earlier in the season. His ERA in August was a miniscule 1.15. He struck out 25. He still has work to do though. Barthmaier needs to continue working on refining his off-speed pitches and improving consistency with his throwing mechanics. He must also reduce the number of walks allowed as well. The Astros will be looking for the confident and dominant Barthmaier in Corpus in 2007.

6. Paul Estrada: 9/14/82. Estrada breaks into our top 10 as the top reliever in the Astros minor leagues. Estrada broke out this year as he moved from being the Hooks setup man to the Hooks closer in June. He recorded 15 saves and 6 holds on the season. To compliment a very good fastball and curveball, Estrada improved the development of his split-finger fastball and the dividends were obvious. In 88 2/3 innings pitched he gave up just 61 hits while striking out 134. Those 134 strike outs were good for second in the Texas League overall. He finished the year with a 3.05 ERA and 37 walks. After the Texas League season, Estrada pitched in the Venezuelan Winter League and was effective. He threw 7 1/3 innings in the regular season giving up 6 hits and 4 walks while striking out 10. He gave up 2 earned runs. In the VWL playoffs, Estrada pitched 7 2/3 innings, giving up 6 hits, 4 walks, and 1 earned run. He has struck out 8. Overall, we?d like to see him cut down on the walks a bit, but when you strike out that many batters, the walks don?t strike us as a large concern. On the 40-man roster, we believe Estrada is a dark horse candidate for the Astros bullpen out of spring training, but realistically we expect to see Estrada closing games in Round Rock this season. If he starts the season at Round Rock, he has the chance to get a call-up depending on need in Houston.

7. Felipe Paulino: 10/5/83. Looking at Paulino?s statistical performance at Salem in 2006 is not going to cause casual observers to think future rotation stud. A 4.35 ERA in a pitcher?s league with less than 1 strikeout per inning pitched (91/126.1) and too many walks (56) don?t usually mark anyone for certain big league success. Paulino, though, has something not many ballplayers in the minor leagues possess - the ability to throw the ball in the mid-to-high-90s on a consistent basis. It is worth noting that the innings he threw this season, 126.1, far surpassed the number he had thrown in any other season since coming from Venezuela in 2002, his previous high being 55IP. This past season he also flashed a highly improved curveball with fantastic movement and began messing with a slider toward the end of the year. Even moreso than any of the other pitchers on this list, it is imperative for Paulino to learn consistency in his mechanics because he is a max-effort kind of pitcher. He will also likely need to develop more of a feel for a change if he is to remain a starter. Should he do so, it is clear he could project to the top of a rotation with this kind of raw ability. If not, it is quite reasonable to project him as a feared 8th or 9th inning guy based almost on the heater alone. Already on the 40-man roster, Paulino is slated to begin the 2007 season in the Corpus Christi rotation. This should be a stern test for Felipe and if he?s able to handle AA, he could rocket up this list.

8. Sergio Perez: 12/5/84. When the Astros drafted this U of Tampa product in the second round this past June, the scouting brass immediately proclaimed him as their second #1 draft pick of the day (alongside actual 1st-rounder Max Sapp). Paul Ricciarini even claimed that several folks in the room on draft day had Perez rated higher than Sapp. We have to admit to being a tad skeptical at that kind of hype at the time. Some of the pre-draft articles (which, to be sure, can often be crap) suggested the guy was more of a 3rd or 4th-rounder. But doggone it if the Astros didn't believe enough in this guy to back up the talk with a move that very quickly drew your attention: rather than sending him to the short-season club at Tri-City, they sent him instead to full-season Lexington. That is a very rare move for the Astros. An organization known for assigning and moving up players in a very conservative manner rarely sends draftees directly to full-season clubs. They've only done it for a very, very small handful of players over the last 10 years (most notably, Chris Burke who of course was the 10th overall pick the year he was drafted). And doggone it even further if the Florida native didn't take it all in stride (as befits a guy who the organization regards highly for his makeup) and performed well for the Legends, albeit in a very limited number of relief innings. The Astros were not gonna take a lot of chances with a guy coming off a long college season (which included being the key performer in Tampa's march to a D-II College World Series title), so they restricted his innings by using him out of the bullpen. It'll be interesting to see whether the club continues it's fast pace with Perez and starts him out this year in Salem. More than likely, however, he'll be back at Lexington (at least to start the season). Whichever club, he'll definitely be in the starting rotation.

9. Chad Reineke: 4/9/82. The next Qualls? Pardon us for making that comparison given the same first names, but there are some definite similarities. Both are tall right-handers (this Chad is 6'6'') who came to the Astros as college senior signs, Reineke as a 13th-rounder in 2004 out of Miami of Ohio. Qualls has established himself as one of the better setup men in the major leagues, and the bullpen at the big-league level is very likely Reineke's destination as well. The comparison starts to break down a bit after that. While Qualls has the sinker which results in all those GB outs, Reineke relies on a devastating slider to go along with his 93-94 mph fastball. And frankly we don't see him as having quite as high a ceiling as Qualls but still think he has enough to put together a pretty decent major league career. But Reineke has definitely surprised before. This past season, he did more to enhance his prospect status than any other pitcher in the system not named Paul Estrada or Tip Fairchild. His work in the starting rotation for Salem at the beginning of the year drew raves. One scout who observed that very talented group of Avalanche starters ranked him ahead of Barthmaier (though behind both Paulino and Patton). He was the first of that foursome to earn a mid-season promotion to Corpus where initially things didn't go well. After four starts, the Ohio native was moved to the Hooks bullpen where he was able to rely less on an inconsistent changeup and put up the excellent 2.10 ERA and 0.82 WHIP with 29 strikeouts in 25.2 IP. The Astros recognized his breakthrough season by sending him to the Arizona Fall League (a season-end poll of Carolina League managers also threw kudos Reineke's way by naming him the 18th-best prospect in that league). He was asked by the organization to work on his mechanics while he was there so it's no surprise that his numbers in the AFL weren't particularly glowing. Specifically, it was requested that he lengthen his stride to take better advantage of his tall frame. So what does the start of the 2007 season hold for Reineke? Probably a return to CC where most likely he'll be re-inserted back into the starting rotation. That'll give him the requisite number of innings to work on both the off-speed pitch as well as the his mechanics. And who knows, if he's able to turn his changeup into a reliable pitch then we might be talking about him next season as a potential #4/#5 starter. But at this point the far safer bet is as a bullpen guy when he makes it to Houston.

10. Eli Iorg: 3/14/83. Rounding out the top 10 and bracketing all the pitchers is the Astros second best outfield prospect Eli Iorg. Fully recovered from a foot injury a year ago, Iorg entered the 2006 season feeling a large weight of expectation on his shoulders. Assigned to what many thought would be a less challenging South Atlantic League, Iorg felt the need to get off to a fast start to justify a quick promotion to Salem. The opposite happened, however. He hit for low average, under .250, and little power while racking up a substantial number of strike outs in April and May. June saw an improvement in the power department but little else seemed improved. After the Sally League ASB Iorg began in July to settle down and hit a bit better as reflected by a July batting average of .267. The power remained but unfortunately so did the high strike out rate. As August moved in Iorg seemed to finally put the pressure to bed. He struck out just 20 times in 101 at-bats. At the same time his August average was .287, and he continued to hit with power. Iorg finished the season with .256 batting average. He was the team leader in doubles (32), triples (4), home runs (15), stolen bases (42), and strike outs (119). He tied for the team lead with Josh Flores in hits with 120. Iorg isn?t considered young for a prospect at the low-A level. He?s the same age as Pence. We realize he missed an entire year of college ball due to missionary work, but he was still more advanced a hitter than most in the Sally League. Obviously the Astros would like to see the relaxed and confident August version of Iorg in 2007. We have a notion the Astros won?t be averse to pushing Iorg if he has a strong spring training and move him directly to AA from low-A. However, if the Astros follow their usual course, we?ll see Iorg start the season at Salem with a possible or even likely call-up to AA if he hits well.


In addition to the Top Ten, we wanted to extend our analysis of the organization's talent by presenting our rankings of the top players at each position. As we were examining the Astros prospects, we knew the Astros were going to be short on top level prospects as they have dealt some away and promoted others. But we were taken aback by the absolute dearth of high end talent everywhere but in right handed pitching. As you?ll see, the Astros really have no major league prospects, as we?re looking at them today, at first base and third base. There are some at catcher but all with question marks. Second base currently lacks high-end talent. Shortstop is a short list though there may be a prospect or two with a major league future, maybe. Outfield has the most position prospects, but most of those have major question marks. The Astros have a solid group of talented right handed pitchers, but most of the southpaws are at the lower levels of the system and consequently will have a higher washout rate. There are actually two separate lists for each position. The first one covers the full-season players (i.e., the ones from which we selected our Top Ten). The second list covers the short-season (i.e., Tri-City and Greeneville), Venezuelan Summer League (VSL) and Dominican Summer League (DSL) players. We now present to you our prospect rankings by position.

Catchers
1. J.R. Towles (above-average hitting and defensive skills, but concerns about the knee and attitude knock him down a tad)
2. Lou Santangelo (made some progress at the plate this year but still inconsistent)
3. Hector Gimenez (after 7 seasons in the minors, can he finally make the leap to the bigs this year as Brad's backup?)

1. Max Sapp (#1 pick struggled at the plate in an advanced league but gunned down 75% of would-be base stealers)
2. Pedro Gonzalez (19-year old lefty-swinger hit .327 in the VSL last season and notched a 45% CS rate on defense)
3. Ralphie Henriquez (no offensive improvement in '06 means this season could be make or break for the '05 2nd-rounder)


First Basemen
1. Ole Sheldon (on-base machine last season but lack of pop still a problem)
2. Mark Ori (looked to be making nice progress at the plate in the season's first half at Lex but fell apart down the stretch)


Second Basemen
1. Brooks Conrad (gritty 27-year old had a career year in '06 but barring trade a 4th straight year at RR looms)
2. Jonny Ash (maintains .313 career BA after 3 pro seasons, but lack of pop and speed still an issue)
3. Eric King (plus defender but he turns 25 in July, has little pop, and fell off a cliff at the plate in latter half of '06)
4. Drew Sutton (decent in several respects at the plate but nothing outstanding, value may hinge on possible versatility)

1. Ronald Ramirez (20-year old Colombian had nice transition to US, upping BA from .267 in '05 in VSL to .314 in Appy in '06)
2. Greg Buchanan (9th-rounder out of Rice hit .272 in pro debut but the 23-year old swings a bat with very little sting in it)


Third Basemen
1. Koby Clemens (awful season at both Lex and in Hawaii raises questions about being a 1-year wonder)

1. Chris Johnson (like many of the '06 draftees, the 4th-rounder was a disappointment at the plate in his 1st year as a pro)


Shortstop
1. Tommy Manzella (AE's possible replacement in 3-4 years rated best defensive SS by Sally managers in '06)

1. Ricardo Bonfante (17-year old had superb debut w/ great plate discipline while among VSL leaders in 4 offensive categories)


Outfielders
1. Hunter Pence
2. Eli Iorg
3. Josh Anderson (made some strides in a repeat season at CC but still not enough walks or pop)
4. Josh Flores (one of a number of 2005 draftees who flopped at the plate this past year after promising debuts)
5. Beau Torbert (continues to surprise but a lack of walks and not quite enough power raises questions as to projectability)
6. Francisco Caraballo (led Carolina League in doubles this past season but remains all or nothing at the plate)

1. Jordan Parraz (multi-tooled but unable to put things together until this past season, his 3rd as a pro and still in SS ball)
2. Herman Armas (lefty hitter batted .295/.390/.474 in '06 as a 19-year old and led VSL in doubles)
3. Nick Moresi (plus defender in CF but extremely poor performance at the plate raises questions that only '07 can answer)
4. Steve Brown (hit .306 for Greeneville but the now 20-year old showed little in the way of plate discipline or pop)


RHPs
1. Matt Albers
2. Juan Gutierrez
3. Jimmy Barthmaier
4. Paul Estrada
5. Felipe Paulino
6. Sergio Perez
7. Chad Reineke
8. Tip Fairchild (caught fire this season by developing a sinker to go along with his plus curveball)
9. Brad James (Towles' teammate in college also a surprise in '06 and like Fairchild works a ton of GBs)
10. Raymar Diaz (lack of mound experience not evident as 6'7" Puerto Rico native made the successful switch to SP)
11. Chance Douglass (consistently excellent numbers mask what appears to be a limited upside)
12. Ronnie Martinez (his half-season in AA didn't go anywhere near as well as his half-season in A-ball)
13. Evan Englebrook (turning 25 in a couple of months, the 6'8" hurler further needs to limit the walks)
14. Sammy Gervacio (yeah, he's a career reliever but one w/ a sub-.200 BAA and 284 K's in 223 IP over 4 seasons)
15. Ryan McKeller (DUI and other issues made for a lost season in '06)
16. German Melendez (the 26-year old converted catcher is currently a MLFA)

1. Bud Norris (6th-rounder was the hottest V-Cat pitcher at the tail-end of the season, whiffing 22 in his final 13 IP)
2. Casey Hudspeth (like Norris, the 5th-round pick got better as the season wore on)
3. Bryan Hallberg (12th-rounder put up terrific results for Tri-City despite alleged lack of secondary pitches)
4. Corey Bass (the G-Astros' starter didn't build on some of the promise shown in '05 debut)
5. Ryan Mitchell (lack of progress in '06 and being sent home early has significantly dimmed his status, perhaps permanently)
6. Cesar Mayora (the Venezuelan reliever had success at both short-season stops in '06)
7. Santo Luis (too old for the Appy, the 6'5" Dominican excelled out of the Greeneville bullpen)
8. Carlos Ladeuth (5'11" Colombia native had success in U.S. debut out of the Greeneville bully, though as a 22-year old)
9. Reid Kelly ('05 DFE had an okay debut as a 19-year old out of the G-Astros 'pen)
10. Chad Wagler (nice debut for college senior taken in 22nd round, but lack of quality pitches beyond slider limits upside)
11. Colt Adams (we still have high hopes for the 6'5" 18th-rounder who's pro debut was both abbreviated and rather shaky)


LHPs
1. Troy Patton
2. Brian Bogusevic (can he stay healthy for a full season and finally demonstrate the talent which made him a #1 pick in '05?)
3. Mark McLemore (dark horse for the 2nd lefty spot in the Astros bully this season?)
4. Chris Blazek (pretty awful early in a repeat season at Lex but posted an 0.28 ERA and 1.03 WHIP over final 32 IP)

1. Chris Salamida (13th-rounder doesn't have overpowering stuff but still absolutely dominated NY-Penn hitters in pro debut)
2. David Qualben (7th-round pick had a superb debut as well and already has the best pickoff move in the system)
3. Sergio Severino (made fools of Appy hitters with his FB, though his age and repeating the league take some of the gloss off)
4. Polin Trinidad (nearly as dominant as Severino for Greeneville, but similar issues as far as age and repeating the league)
5. Victor Garate (started to get a handle on those control problems he experienced in '05)
6. Cory Lapinski (still wishing he could get a handle on his control problems, though some small progress was made)
7. Tom Vessella (the 6'6" 11th-rounder from a D-III school struggled a bit in his 1st pro season)
8. Antony Bello (success in pro debut somewhat belied his status as a 21st-round pick)

[Mr. Clutch]

With him about to break the all time record for HBPs? Blasphemy...

Maybe the Astros can pay a few pitchers to bean him a few times...

Maybe we should bean opposing players and then have opposing pitchers retaliate by hitting biggio.

Did anyone see the article where Phil and Biggio "discussed" his new role? It really rubbed me the wrong way how Biggio thinks he should be getting most of the time. Bidge, you suck now, let the younger guy take the position like Doran let you take it.

[Ric]

.230 Burke
i thought they should have dealt burke when they brought biggio back last year. but since he's here, i'm not going to give up on him just yet - he's never played a full season, and certainly not at any one position, let alone his "natural" position. and while he is hitting .230, his ob% is .320 - awful, but 30 points higher than biggio's, and that's with him playing infrequently, getting sent down, etc.

if he can settle in these final 60-70 games... man, oh, man - does that solve a giant coupla o needs....

[Mr. Clutch]

if he can settle in these final 60-70 games... man, oh, man - does that solve a giant coupla o needs....

Too bad Biggio will start 20-30 of those.

[Ric]

Well, that and the return of the player formerly known as Lance Berkman.
not sure how i'd prioritize their needs... their defense absolutely blows - that's a big, big problem, too. but yes, berkman and oswalt must return to berkman and oswalt-like form. no tweaking is going to matter much if they decline further next year.

anyway, burke is probably the most important player on the roster as the season continues. man, if they're wrong about him...

Lamb or Loretta at 3rd & batting 2nd wouldn't be a total disaster next season (can't fix everything at once). It would also heighten the need for AE to come back healthy.
i'd certainly like both back. people here may not realize that lamb was once the crown jewel of the rangers' system (i lived in dallas at the time), so while i'm usually somewhat dubious of late bloomers, it's not like lamb is some street FA performing out of his mind...

here're his numbers since coming to the astros in '04: .281/.816 with 47 HRs in 1,180 ABs. unfortunately, he's never put up those kind of #s consistently over the course of what would constitute a full season. if he could, i'd be more than content to hand 3b to him full-time.

Need a veteran stopgap catcher for 1-2 years, until Towles is ready (who, as a prospect, is not too far behind guys like Clement & Salty). Unless someone really special becomes available, but that's kinda unlikely.
i'm guessing they'll bring ausmus back with the idea of quintero being the #1 guy.

Then there's the pitching staff....
they have to have a prospect really, really step up this year and establish themselves. otherwise... not sure how you can fix that in just a year, short of thorwing billions at a zambrano, colon, garcia-type.

[TheFreak]

Did anyone see the article where Phil and Biggio "discussed" his new role? It really rubbed me the wrong way how Biggio thinks he should be getting most of the time. Bidge, you suck now, let the younger guy take the position like Doran let you take it.

Yep, saw that. It's like Garner's afraid of him or something. They mentioned "his" fans getting a chance to see him for the last time. Has he even said it's his last year? Imagine having to do this again next year!

[htownbball]

Let's hope so...leadoff is their biggest offensive problem going into next year.

Well, that and the return of the player formerly known as Lance Berkman.

Lamb or Loretta at 3rd & batting 2nd wouldn't be a total disaster next season (can't fix everything at once). It would also heighten the need for AE to come back healthy.

Need a veteran stopgap catcher for 1-2 years, until Towles is ready (who, as a prospect, is not too far behind guys like Clement & Salty). Unless someone really special becomes available, but that's kinda unlikely.

Then there's the pitching staff....

i wouldnt say towles is up there with salty and clement. he's better defensively, but the offense that salty and clement can provide is up there with the best at any position. clement is gonna be a 25-30 home run catcher, which is very rare. salty is almost a clone of brian mccann and could be a 20-25 homer catcher, and possibly 30 homers if he moves to 1B. both will walk 75+ times in the majors

towles' power is a little limited because of his frame. he's only about 190lbs. most likely will be a 10-15 homer type. he's aggressive and can hit to all fields, but that also limits his walks. doesnt strikeout much. we need to get a catcher NOW, otherwise we're gonna be in the same boat as this year.

[Buck Turgidson]

i wouldnt say towles is up there with salty and clement.
BA has him listed this week (it's BA, notoriously stat-heavy & observation-light, so take with many grains of salt) as the 3rd best catching prospect in the minors. Like I said...not that far behind. It's interesting that all your projections/focus on these catchers is offensive.

No Worries: what do BA's pre-season rankings have to do with anything, after these guys have played an additional ~4 months of baseball?

Ric: agreed on Burke. I've never been that impressed (with respect to the hype), but if he can settle into a top-of-the-order comfort zone, that solves a *huge* weakness & allows you to broaden your search for a new CF/RF to guys that have either top or middle of the order skills.

[Buck Turgidson]

they have to have a prospect really, really step up this year and establish themselves. otherwise... not sure how you can fix that in just a year, short of thorwing billions at a zambrano, colon, garcia-type.
That's unlikely, I'd think. The one guy who's standing out this year is Brad James, who just made his first AA start. I'd imagine he *could* be in the mix for a midseason callup next year, but that would be rushing it, I'd imagine.

Who knows about Patton? Gutierrez? Other than that, there's just not much on the immediate horizon. I'd imagine they'll look for vet FA (Jennings or somebody similar) & go with some combination of Woody/Wandy/Backe/Sampson/Rookie in the 3-5 slots.

Albers may be the prime candidate to be groomed as the 7th inning guy to replace whichever of Qualls/Wheeler is traded, if traded. Paulino fits there as well, and Estrada (who's had a down year, unfortunately).

[Ric]

we need to get a catcher NOW, otherwise we're gonna be in the same boat as this year.
which boat is that? i'd love a significant upgrade at catcher - it hink we all would - but in terms of the big picture, it's a minor (if that) priority. if they were to somehow more than adequately address their other, more pressing needs, it's not like a catcher from the ausmus/munson/quintero/guiterrez pool is going to undo their efforts.

[Buck Turgidson]

they have to have a prospect really, really step up this year and establish themselves. otherwise... not sure how you can fix that in just a year, short of thorwing billions at a zambrano, colon, garcia-type.
As far as the starters go, I'm not sure it's *that* desperate of a situation. If Roy had a ~3.30 ERA this year (in essense, if he were a bit worse than Average Roy, instead of a lot worse than Average Roy), and with a full season of Jennings, even pitching as poorly as he has, the Astros would be 6th in the NL in starters' ERA. Not terrible at all.

The bullpen, one of the main strengths of the team heading into the season, is dead last in ERA in the NL. That to me, with the arms they have both in the bigs & in the minors, does not seem very likely to repeat next season.

So it kinda boils down to: They need Roy to be Roy (same boat the offense is in with Berkman: like you said, if that doesn't happen there's not much they can do to become a good team), and they need a consistent #2 starter (that part sounds vaguely familiar).

[htownbball]

which boat is that? i'd love a significant upgrade at catcher - it hink we all would - but in terms of the big picture, it's a minor (if that) priority. if they were to somehow more than adequately address their other, more pressing needs, it's not like a catcher from the ausmus/munson/quintero/guiterrez pool is going to undo their efforts.

when i mean now, i mean now and next year. munson and quintero as our starters? thats worse than ausmus somehow.

[Ric]

As far as the starters go, I'm not sure it's *that* desperate of a situation.
i only think it's desperate (if i even think that) because jennings is a FA and won't be worth whatever he's likely to ask for and they have $6.25M in sunk costs (aka the last year of woody williams' deal).

so i think they're gonna need 2 arms at the top of the rotation to go along with roy.

[Ric]

when i mean now, i mean now and next year. munson and quintero as our starters? thats worse than ausmus somehow.
it's such a minor concern in the grand scheme of things. besides, ausmus is quietly putting together one of his better seasons.

[bigboymumu]

I would not be surprised if the person that gets traded is ausmus. He is quietly have a "good" year at the plate.

[No Worries]

so i think they're gonna need 2 arms at the top of the rotation to go along with roy.
Is Fernando Nieve chopped liver?

[rocketlaunch]

http://img526.imageshack.us/img526/1036/thewizardhy4.jpg

this man

[leroy420]

Is Fernando Nieve chopped liver?

Until he recovers from Tommy John surgery, yes.