Do the Astros have the pitching to compete?

[DaDakota]

For the last few years the one area of the Astros I was not worried about was pitching, we had an all star starting staff led by Clemens, Oswalt, Andy, and a solid middle relief bullpen and a usually steady closer.

This year, man, I am worried, outside of Roy O, the starters are one big massive question mark.

Woody is old, Jennings is an unknown commodity, Wandy is..well crap, as is the back end of the rotation.

Our bullpen is suspect too, outside of Wheeler and Qualls and maybe Miller I am not confident at all and if Spring results are an indicator, Lidge may be done.

Ironically, I think this team is going to hit pretty well...but pitching.....wow......I just don't see it.

DD

[weslinder]

I think you severely underrate the Astros' bullpen. Most teams would kill to have pitchers as good as Miller and Borkowski as their 4th and 5th guys out of the pen. Even if Lidge is too unreliable to close, he'd make a really good, albeit overpriced 7th inning guy. I do share your concerns about the rotation, though.

[No Worries]

Jennings is an unknown commodity.

Didn't know Jennings was a rookie. Seriously, we know what to expect from both Williams and Jennings over a full season.

Same can be said for Wandy; it is just that we don't like it. Actually as a fifth starter, the best you can hope for is league average ERA and 15 of 30 quality starts (6 innings giving up 3 runs or less). Wandy has the potential for that. If the Stros are contenting in June, Clemens will sign and Wandy will ride the pine. IIRC Wandy actually did not suck last year in April and May.

Better question is :

Who in our division has better pitching?

[tested911]

Your right man our starting pitching outside Oswalt has a BIG ??????

When your 3rd starter says stuff like this after giving up 5 runs in 5 inning..

"I felt good today," "I threw the ball well and it was the kind of outing I needed to have before my final tuneup. It was definitely a step in the right direction, and I'm ready to get home."

"I'm very confident now," "I made a lot of good pitches and the ball felt good coming out of my hand. It was definitely good enough to compete and win."

WTF is Woody talking about? Good enough to Win? Yeah if we allways put up 6+ runs a night for his sorry A$@.... I hope he proves me wrong and he has an ERA below or right around 4.

[Buck Turgidson]

The Stros opened last season with a top 4 of:

Roy, AP, Backe & Wandy...as opposed to this year's:

Roy, JJ, Woody & Wandy.

Yep, big difference there.

They most likely need another starter. They needed one last year too. He showed up around June. If he doesn't, they'll have to make a move or have a couple of the youngsters that people pine for incessantly step up. That's the same situation as...umm lemme check...every team in the NL.

It's a long season.

[Buck Turgidson]

WTF is Woody talking about? Good enough to Win? Yeah if we allways put up 6+ runs a night for his sorry A$@.... I hope he proves me wrong and he has an ERA below or right around 4.
WTF are you talking about?

It's spring training. Results don't matter.

[tested911]

WTF are you talking about?

It's spring training. Results don't matter.

So Buck what your saying here right now is that he's not going to be this sorry in the Season???? Because everything were seeing on offense and defensive mean Zilch??? I mean why should we even care what happens in Spring Training Right??

[Buck Turgidson]

So Buck what your saying here right now is that he's not going to be this sorry in the Season???? Because everything were seeing on offense and defensive mean Zilch??? I mean why should we even care what happens in Spring Training Right??
Results in ST don't matter. I can't make it any clearer than that.

[DaDakota]

Indeed they don't matter, but sometimes they are an INDICATOR of things to come.


When you put the rotation in perspective for last year it does seem close......but we knew Roger was coming back....at we had a good indicator.

If Roger comes back again (For some reason I don't think he will) then we are good again.

What is the status of Backe? I forgot about him, is he out all year?

DD

[MadMax]

Indeed they don't matter, but sometimes they are an INDICATOR of things to come.



But a lot of times they aren't...because pitchers don't pitch in ST games the same way they pitching in regular season games. They work with different pitches. They test stuff out.

Originally they said Backe was out all year. Later I read something that said he might come back at the all-star break.

[Buck Turgidson]

Here's a little experiment for ya:

Woody Willams, Spring Training, last 4 seasons: ERA - 14.54, 14.4, 7.2, 6

Reg Season, last 4 years: cumulative 16 games over .500, ERA about 4

JJ had a 5.4ish ERA last Spring, how'd his regular season go?

Meaningless.

[Major]

Didn't know Jennings was a rookie. Seriously, we know what to expect from both Williams and Jennings over a full season.


Out of curiousity, what exactly do you expect from them? Jennings had an ERA of 3.5 last year, and in the 5's the previous 3 years. Woody Williams had an ERA in the 3.6 range last year, and in the 4.8 range the year before and is now 41 years old.

[Major]

For the last few years the one area of the Astros I was not worried about was pitching, we had an all star starting staff led by Clemens, Oswalt, Andy, and a solid middle relief bullpen and a usually steady closer.

Oh, the memories of one of the fun Astros threads last year, 3 weeks into the season...

http://bbs.clutchfans.net/showthread.php?t=111964

[DaDakota]

Oh, the memories of one of the fun Astros threads last year, 3 weeks into the season...

http://bbs.clutchfans.net/showthread.php?t=111964

Read the first post, I said "Personally, I want him back".

You are reaching Shanna !!

DD

[Buck Turgidson]

Oh, the memories of one of the fun Astros threads last year, 3 weeks into the season...

http://bbs.clutchfans.net/showthread.php?t=111964
Purp has said repeatedly that they've targeted the upcoming offseason to be a significant one. Clemens/Pettitte/Bagwell (close to $50M) off the books. Oswalt's extension & a re-signed Pettitte will hopefully eat a chunk out of that, as will raises for a few other players.

The Stros will have spots to fill in LF & in the rotation.

Carlos Lee is the ideal target.

Hot damn, I'm good.

[texanskan]

As of right now, No.

*If they get Clemens back
*If the pen (ie. Lidge/Qualls) performs up to their ability (2005)
*If they get something more from Ausmus/Everett (to help the pitchers)

I am not too worried about Scott or Burke but they are not proven so it is still a *if

The way I see it, too many "what if's"

This being said, they have one of the top three hitters in baseball and I think the best pitcher in baseball so when you have those two great anchors for your staff and lineup you got a chance.

I am excited for next monday but after that the Astros are an after thought (for a while) since the Rockets have a legit shot at a title. Let's hope we can stay close to St Louis and Chicago and get Roger back.

All and all I am happy that we have been in the mix the last few years and for the most part been a winner for the last 10+ years.

Now the goal is to win a world series not have the 4th best record in baseball over a period of time (the Astros like to bring up this stat) but when you take everything into account things are a hell of a lot better now. Nobody used to care about baseball in this town, the Astros were pretty bad and now we have a ballpark downtown people come early and stay late, folks make road trips I just wish the Astros could reward us with a title and the city can celebrate like back in the day.

On a side note, the Texans have been terrible but we can all agree the owner is a great guy who want to win very bad and it seems like we have a smart gm and a good coaching staff. Things in the NFL can change fast and if the Texans win a super bowl before the Astros and if the Rockets grab two more with Yao/Mac than I am worried this town will go back to not paying attention to the Stros. I like the way it's been but just back in 2003 (not long at all) they could not sell out opening day so I hope this thing continues without Roger and Andy.

[MadMax]

if the Texans win a super bowl before the Astros and if the Rockets grab two more with Yao/Mac than I am worried this town will go back to not paying attention to the Stros. I like the way it's been but just back in 2003 (not long at all) they could not sell out opening day so I hope this thing continues without Roger and Andy.

wanna bet?

the astros have been consistently good for a while. that draws fans. that, and the fact you can still get in the game for $5. the ballpark is beautiful and it's a great place to spend a summer evening.

if the rockets grab two more??? seriously, man..i love the rockets big time...but you're talking about a sport where more teams make the playoffs than don't, and our track record for that ain't so hot over the course of the past 10 years...let's get out of the first round once before we start talking about multiple titles on the horizon.

the nfl is on another planet. it draws in spite of itself all over the country. it's not only the most popular sport in this country, it's arguably this country's favorite entertainment, period.

[rhino17]

Jennings is an unknown commodity.

Didn't know Jennings was a rookie. Seriously, we know what to expect from both Williams and Jennings over a full season.



Jennings has only proven to be around a .500 pitcher in his career, that is all he has proven.

That being sad, I think they will be fine. Its basically the same pitching as last year, except Jennings for Pettite. No one else in the Central has more than 1 good pitcher, so although i dont think the pitching will be great, no one else's will be either.

[MadMax]

Jennings has only proven to be around a .500 pitcher in his career, that is all he has proven.

.

for the Rockies. if you're getting the Rockies to play .500, you're doing well! :D

[texanskan]

wanna bet?

the astros have been consistently good for a while. that draws fans. that, and the fact you can still get in the game for $5. the ballpark is beautiful and it's a great place to spend a summer evening.

if the rockets grab two more??? seriously, man..i love the rockets big time...but you're talking about a sport where more teams make the playoffs than don't, and our track record for that ain't so hot over the course of the past 10 years...let's get out of the first round once before we start talking about multiple titles on the horizon.

the nfl is on another planet. it draws in spite of itself all over the country. it's not only the most popular sport in this country, it's arguably this country's favorite entertainment, period.

No I don't want to bet because I want people in this town to care about baseball. When I was a kid, I rode my bike up to the dome and paid 1 dollar to sit in the outfield. Nobody went to games and the only thing people cared about was the Oilers. In 97 there was barley over 30k for the freaking division clincher in 98 game 2 of the playoff series (with the best record the Astros ever had) there were dozens of empty sections.

I want the good times to keep rolling and I am worried they wont if the Astros go 5 years without either playoffs or a a series win.

[Joe Joe]

The Astros need someone to step up or depend on the NL, and specifically the central, sucking again. The offense looks better on paper this year, but the offense on the field will need to carry this team late in the rotation.

[No Worries]

Out of curiousity, what exactly do you expect from them? Jennings had an ERA of 3.5 last year, and in the 5's the previous 3 years. Woody Williams had an ERA in the 3.6 range last year, and in the 4.8 range the year before and is now 41 years old.
I expect JJ's ERA will be somewhere between 3.5 and 5.

I expect WW's ERA to be closer to 4.8 than 3.6.

Both's ERA should be below the league average and both should eat innings.

[NJRocket]

If we are still juggling our 4th and 5th spots come June, we are gonna be in trouble...if we can sort one of them out and get a guy who can pitch like a 3/4 in that spot....we can compete in this division. I think we need Roger to come back or for a guy like Nieve/ALbers/Wandy to exceed all expectations to win the division.

[jakedasnake]

But a lot of times they aren't...because pitchers don't pitch in ST games the same way they pitching in regular season games. They work with different pitches. They test stuff out.

Originally they said Backe was out all year. Later I read something that said he might come back at the all-star break.

Especially a 40 year old such as Woody who has been around the block. I don't mind when a season vet says stuff like this but when guys like Wandy and Garner talk about Wandy's performances they don't think anything of it. I hate when they say "my/his only mistake was"...your only mistake was that you allowed 5 runs in 3 innings Wandy you piece of %^$#. Sorry, a little carried away but man that annoys me.

[jakedasnake]

If we are still juggling our 4th and 5th spots come June, we are gonna be in trouble...if we can sort one of them out and get a guy who can pitch like a 3/4 in that spot....we can compete in this division. I think we need Roger to come back or for a guy like Nieve/ALbers/Wandy to exceed all expectations to win the division.

So who do you guys think will step up? I think and hope Nieve will be the guy to step up and take charge of the 5th spot I guess. He seems like he has the most confidence besides Sampson who I think will be the long reliever and come in when Wandy sucks(which will happen a lot).

[RocketManJosh]

Personally I think Jennings is an upgrade from last year's Pettitte who was NOT good. We will get more out of Woody than we got out of Backe last year, and Wandy is still Wandy. So I don't think we are that much worse off than last year.

The problem is that last year's staff well underachieved, and that is the quality we seem to be expecting this year.

In other news, I believe the Astros offense will be very much improved over last year with Lee in the lineup and I just cannot see us being stuck with an underperforming Ensberg and Lane in the lineup for near as long as we did last year. Changes will be made sooner this year (I hope) if those guys don't perform.

[Major]

I expect JJ's ERA will be somewhere between 3.5 and 5.

I expect WW's ERA to be closer to 4.8 than 3.6.

Both's ERA should be below the league average and both should eat innings.

None of these things go together. Close to 4.8 and 5 are not below league average. And Woody Williams is anything but an inning eater. He's pitched 160 innings or less each of the past two years, and averages about 6 innings per start in the portion of the season he's healthy.

[NJRocket]

So who do you guys think will step up? I think and hope Nieve will be the guy to step up and take charge of the 5th spot I guess. He seems like he has the most confidence besides Sampson who I think will be the long reliever and come in when Wandy sucks(which will happen a lot).


Tough call....Sampson showed some flashes last year in live games n the bigs....and Nieve is starting to look like he is getting there. Wandy, even though he has been there, scares me....he seems to get the wins but he seems to draw the game where we explode for 8 runs (no stats to back that up...just seemed that way) and he would get pulled just before he imploded. Albers doesnt strike me as the guy for whatever reason. I think we are going to see Wandy in the 4 spot and Nieve in the 5 to start imo.

I actually think we should give Nieve the 4 spot and only use Wandy as the 5 when there isnt an off day

[JeopardE]

Guys, what's the status of Backe? Is he ever going to return? I haven't heard anything about him in a long time.

[JeopardE]

Never mind. Damn, his surgery could take up to 18 months to recover from. :eek:

[Buck Turgidson]

Guys, what's the status of Backe? Is he ever going to return? I haven't heard anything about him in a long time.
He's throwing all his pitches off the mound. Not reasonable for him to return before September, if at all this year. Usually takes about 12-18 months, which puts him in Sept 07 to ST of 08.

They have said that his recovery is going faster than planned. Him pushing it too hard too fast is a big worry, since his stubbornness is what got him in this situation to begin with.

[Buck Turgidson]

he seems to get the wins but he seems to draw the game where we explode for 8 runs (no stats to back that up...just seemed that way) and he would get pulled just before he imploded
http://bbs.clutchfans.net/showpost.php?p=2812236&postcount=53

[No Worries]

None of these things go together. Close to 4.8 and 5 are not below league average.
Close to 3.5 and significantly well below league average. What's your point again?

And Woody Williams is anything but an inning eater. He's pitched 160 innings or less each of the past two years, and averages about 6 innings per start in the portion of the season he's healthy.
Wandy dreams of 6 innings per start.

6 innings per start average is eating innings in my book. Good days will be 7 innings and bad days will be 5 innings.

Last

Oswalt averaged 6.9.
Jennings average 6.6.
Williams averaged 6.0 (on 24 starts).

If Nieve can average 6.0, everybody will be screaming he has had a breakout season.

[Major]

Close to 3.5 and significantly well below league average. What's your point again?


My point is that "closer to 4.8 than 3.5" and "both ERA should be below league average" are completely opposite ideas. And you expect Jennings to be somewhere between one of the best 10 pitchers in the NL and well worse than league average, and are saying you know what to expect of him?



Wandy dreams of 6 innings per start.

6 innings per start average is eating innings in my book. Good days will be 7 innings and bad days will be 5 innings.


Fair enough. I think of an inning eater as someone who gets more than the average, middle-of-the-road starter and as someone that can battle through bad outings and go deep into a game when you need to conserve your bullpen or something like that. That's not Woody Williams. To his credit, though, he's fairly consistent as opposed to having those 2 inning games and then 9 inning games to balance them out. He basically always goes about 6 innings.


Oswalt averaged 6.9.
Jennings average 6.6.
Williams averaged 6.0 (on 24 starts).

If Nieve can average 6.0, everybody will be screaming he has had a breakout season.

And Nieve wouldn't be considered an inning eater either. Oswalt certainly is. I don't know enough about Jennings' makeup to really know if he is at this point. Wandy and company are not.

[Buck Turgidson]

Wandy dreams of 6 innings per start.

6 innings per start average is eating innings in my book.
Wandy averaged just a tick over 5.5 innings per start last year. 11 innings additional innings amongst his 24 starts would put him at an even 6. Which is just about exactly what Woody did: 11 1/3 more innings in the same number of starts.

Just sayin'.

[weslinder]

It seems like a lot of the media is expecting Nieve to have a breakout season. I certainly hope so. I've always thought that if he could keep his pitches consistently down, he'd be a stud.

[justtxyank]

6 innings per start average is eating innings in my book. Good days will be 7 innings and bad days will be 5 innings.



160 innings pitched per season is a far cry from innings eater.

[magnetik]

When I was a kid, I rode my bike up to the dome and paid 1 dollar to sit in the outfield.

I remember doing that all the time! it was great.. loved going to batting practice and watch Glenn Davis pop em out. I wonder what his homerun totals would be if he played in MM.

[MiniMing]

For the last few years the one area of the Astros I was not worried about was pitching, we had an all star starting staff led by Clemens, Oswalt, Andy, and a solid middle relief bullpen and a usually steady closer.

This year, man, I am worried, outside of Roy O, the starters are one big massive question mark.

Woody is old, Jennings is an unknown commodity, Wandy is..well crap, as is the back end of the rotation.

Our bullpen is suspect too, outside of Wheeler and Qualls and maybe Miller I am not confident at all and if Spring results are an indicator, Lidge may be done.

Ironically, I think this team is going to hit pretty well...but pitching.....wow......I just don't see it.

DD

Agree with all of this, I don't see the pitchers getting it done this year, other than Roy, Wheeler and Lidge.

[robbie380]

Here's a little experiment for ya:

Woody Willams, Spring Training, last 4 seasons: ERA - 14.54, 14.4, 7.2, 6

Reg Season, last 4 years: cumulative 16 games over .500, ERA about 4

JJ had a 5.4ish ERA last Spring, how'd his regular season go?

Meaningless.


maybe you should care about his horrible home/road splits for 2005 and 2006 outside of the awesome pitchers park in san diego. or maybe care about the declining IP and starts after the career high of 220 and 34 respectively in 2003. then couple that with his very poor spring and you have some big time red flags.

we are going to be hurting for starters. Roy O and JJ are great to have as the top 2, but outside of that we are running out very weak starters.

[robbie380]

Wandy averaged just a tick over 5.5 innings per start last year. 11 innings additional innings amongst his 24 starts would put him at an even 6. Which is just about exactly what Woody did: 11 1/3 more innings in the same number of starts.

Just sayin'.


it's hard to find spots starters with marginal skills that are "innings eaters" with a 5+ ERA on contending teams. i think we all know that if we are depending on wandy as a #4 then we are in big trouble.

[Buck Turgidson]

Yes, there are question marks about Woody, I've said as much myself. That's all well and good, robbie. But that has zero bearing on the relevance of spring training stats, which is what was being discussed.

[Buck Turgidson]

it's hard to find spots starters with marginal skills that are "innings eaters" with a 5+ ERA on contending teams. i think we all know that if we are depending on wandy as a #4 then we are in big trouble.
I have no idea what you're trying to tell me here.

[robbie380]

Yes, there are question marks about Woody, I've said as much myself. That's all well and good, robbie. But that has zero bearing on the relevance of spring training stats, which is what was being discussed.


i just don't see how you can say spring training doesn't matter at all for marginal players. woody is 40 years old and he displayed decreasing durability with age. a poor spring for a 40 year old guy is not a good sign.

[robbie380]

I have no idea what you're trying to tell me here.


i'm trying to say that wandy sucks and he won't be able to increase his IP because he simply is not good.

[bobrek]

i just don't see how you can say spring training doesn't matter at all for marginal players. woody is 40 years old and he displayed decreasing durability with age. a poor spring for a 40 year old guy is not a good sign.

As Buck pointed out earlier, Williams ERA has been terrible the past 4 spring trainings:

Woody Willams, Spring Training, last 4 seasons: ERA - 14.54, 14.4, 7.2, 6

[texanskan]

As Buck pointed out earlier, Williams ERA has been terrible the past 4 spring trainings:

Woody Willams, Spring Training, last 4 seasons: ERA - 14.54, 14.4, 7.2, 6

I thought "spring numbers don't matter" so who cares if he was bad last year in Spring and turned it around

[bobrek]

I thought "spring numbers don't matter" so who cares if he was bad last year in Spring and turned it around

I was addressing robbie380's post which said that Williams is not having a good spring and that is not a good sign for the regular season.

The numbers simply show that spring stats are not THE indicator for regular season success.

[No Worries]

Wandy averaged just a tick over 5.5 innings per start last year. 11 innings additional innings amongst his 24 starts would put him at an even 6. Which is just about exactly what Woody did: 11 1/3 more innings in the same number of starts.

Just sayin'.
I was a bit surprised when I looked at WR's IP from last season. I guess I maybe remember his melt downs in the second half more so than his first half. I do vaguely recall that WR pitched well in April and May of last year, maybe with an ERA in the 3s.

[Buck Turgidson]

I was a bit surprised when I looked at WR's IP from last season. I guess I maybe remember his melt downs in the second half more so than his first half. I do vaguely recall that WR pitched well in April and May of last year, maybe with an ERA in the 3s.
Yep, me too. He was horribly inconsistent last year. Sometimes, within the same inning. I hold no real faith in him, but I understand why they're giving him a shot *to start the season* over, say, Albers or Moehler.

[robbie380]

I was addressing robbie380's post which said that Williams is not having a good spring and that is not a good sign for the regular season.

The numbers simply show that spring stats are not THE indicator for regular season success.


i'm not saying they are an indicator for regular season success but they are something to look at. granted i have not seen woody throw a game this spring and i know vet pitchers generally don't care about the spring but seeing a 10 ERA and 1.9 WHIP over 26 IP doesn't make me feel good.

also, when we signed woody did anyone care about his home/road splits?

[robbie380]

damn i need to edit...i meant 16 IP

[NJRocket]

.

The numbers simply show that spring stats are not THE indicator for regular season success.

especially for woody

[hatemavs4life]

Your right man our starting pitching outside Oswalt has a BIG ??????

When your 3rd starter says stuff like this after giving up 5 runs in 5 inning..

"I felt good today," "I threw the ball well and it was the kind of outing I needed to have before my final tuneup. It was definitely a step in the right direction, and I'm ready to get home."

"I'm very confident now," "I made a lot of good pitches and the ball felt good coming out of my hand. It was definitely good enough to compete and win."

WTF is Woody talking about? Good enough to Win? Yeah if we allways put up 6+ runs a night for his sorry A$@.... I hope he proves me wrong and he has an ERA below or right around 4.

Dude, I think you're making a mountain out of a mole hill before the season even starts ... name one team in our division who has pitching with absolutely NO question marks ????? Anyone, anyone ... buehler? That's right it just means without Rocket we aren't the front runner pitching wise in the division but, the Cardinals have no question marks, heck the Cubs? Prior and Wood may never be what they were supposed to be because of injuries. The rest of the division DEFINITE problems. Think Arroyo will be doing half as good for the Reds as he did the first half last year?

Yes, the Stros have question marks for their pitching, the good news is they are in a division that once again will probably be a "free for all" at the end plus, they have money to spend at the trade deadline potentially to get over the hump potentially.

Just relax, baseball season is a marathon ... not a sprint! ;)

[Nick]

I feel that the Stros' 1-2-3 is on par with any of the other 1-2-3 in the NL, both in terms of potential as well as question marks.

Oswalt is the best pitcher in the NL... period. Carpenter comes close, but he's older, has more injury problems, and has nowhere near the "stones" that Roy can carry around. Most cardinals fans would take Roy in a second... and that's pretty much all the comparison you need.

Jennings is the difference maker. If he merely matches the year he had at still hitter-friendly (even with the humidor) coors... I'll be ecstatic. The fact that he's looking to most likely improve (with his sinker sinking more) still has me confident that he'll be an ideal #2 guy. I love his durability... its calming to know you'll have a guy who'll most likely take the ball every 4th day without fail. And there's no reason why he can't be as effective as Jeff Suppan was for the Cardinals down the stretch last year.

Woody is woody... 40 years old, but still competitive in the NL. I wasn't thrilled about the signing when it happened (mainly because I still was counting on Pettite being here), but now he's going to have to bring it. I expect him to do very well the first couple of months of the season, but then potentially start getting knocked around a little, or possibly have some arm trouble. Then again, he knows what he's doing out there... and that's also calming out of your #3 guy (no Tim Reddings, please).

After that, I'm more excited about the possibilities of Nieve, Sampson, Albers, and that certain #22... then I am about who's actually going to be pitching in the #4 and #5 spots to start the season. If its Wandy, so be it... we have a good enough bullpen, and the earlier he gets knocked out, the better the team will be for it for the rest of the season.

In the end, pitching is no longer a given... that's for sure. But it normally isn't a given for any team in MLB, including the Yankees. We were BLESSED to have three pitchers pitching at Cy Young levels in 2005. Its the #1 reason we made the World Series (given our lineup).

Now, its back to reality... the Stros are better than they were in 02 and 03 (pre-Roger/Andy), and the rest of the NL is much worse. its wide open... there for the taking.

[MadMax]

Yes...the Cubs have questions. How this team is getting nearly even odds to win the NL Central is completely beyond me.

http://mlb.aolsportsblog.com/2007/03/27/wade-miller-beats-out-mark-prior-for-cubs-fifth-spot/

Wade Miller Beats Out Mark Prior For Cubs' Fifth Spot
Posted Mar 27th 2007 5:22PM by PostmanE
Filed under: Cubs, NL Central, MLB Injuries

If you've been following what Bleed Cubbie Blue today calls the "Woodprior monster" for much of spring training, then you're aware Prior and Wood are both having pretty awful preseasons. Prior has been unable to pitch effectively at all, and Wood appears to be injured yet again. Yee-ha.

Into that wake steps Wade Miller, who beat Prior for the Cubs' fifth rotation spot, Lou Piniella confirmed today.

Considering how shaky Prior has been this offseason, this was an obvious move for the Cubs. That said, Miller isn't a huge improvement over the injury-prone Prior; since a 2001-2003 stretch when he averaged around 180 innings a year, Miller pitched a combined 200. He's not exactly a Carlos Zambrano-level workhorse.

On the other hand, the Cubs don't need him to be. If he can keep his ERA under 4, his lifetime average, in that fifth spot ... I think the Cubs will be mighty happy with that.

The tailspin of this story is that Prior -- onetime dominator -- will likely be a starter in the Cubs' minor league system. Wow. "Unhinged" was the word I believe we used a few weeks ago, and it's looking all the more accurate.

[NJRocket]

Yes...the Cubs have questions. How this team is getting nearly even odds to win the NL Central is completely beyond me.

.

i think its because their lineup is revamped and no one really has dominant pitching in our division

their lineup ...with Soriano, Ramirez, Lee, Derosa, Floyd, etc is pretty solid...they even have a decent hitting catcher

[MadMax]

i think its because their lineup is revamped and no one really has dominant pitching in our division

their lineup ...with Soriano, Ramirez, Lee, Derosa, Floyd, etc is pretty solid...they even have a decent hitting catcher

like the Texas Rangers? :)

i just don't know how that gets you even odds. vegas is smarter than me, but i think they're nuts on this one.

[bobrek]

like the Texas Rangers? :)

i just don't know how that gets you even odds. vegas is smarter than me, but i think they're nuts on this one.

It's simple really....the Cubs rotation is SO good that Mark Prior and Kerry Wood can't crack it. :)

[Nick]

like the Texas Rangers? :)

i just don't know how that gets you even odds. vegas is smarter than me, but i think they're nuts on this one.

I was actually about to type "at best, they're the Texas Rangers of the NL".

But, I'm actually not sold on Soriano being the ultimate panacea for that offense... especially if he's batting leadoff.

[weslinder]

It's simple really....the Cubs rotation is SO good that Mark Prior and Kerry Wood can't crack it. :)

The Winhealthy brothers aren't good enough to crack the Iowa Cubs rotation at this point.

[Major]

But, I'm actually not sold on Soriano being the ultimate panacea for that offense... especially if he's batting leadoff.

Don't forget that in comparison to last year, they are also adding Derrek Lee, a 1.000 OPS type hitter with some speed.

[Nick]

Don't forget that in comparison to last year, they are also adding Derrek Lee, a 1.000 OPS type hitter with some speed.

I think Lee is their best player... and they're going to be just fine on offense if he's at the MVP level he was at in 05... but I still don't think they're good enough to simply outslug teams every night.

[DaDakota]

I think Lee is their best player... and they're going to be just fine on offense if he's at the MVP level he was at in 05... but I still don't think they're good enough to simply outslug teams every night.

Too many inconsistent players to do that.

Teams will be able to pitch around Lee and Berkman....unless Ensberg and Scott are going good, this team needs good pitching to compete every night.

Right now with Ausmus, Everett and the pitcher, we have 33% of the batter as pretty much guaranteed outs.

DD

[Master Baiter]

Teams will be able to pitch around Lee and Berkman....
Pitching around Berkman didn't work last year and we had much less to work with then.

[The Cat]

Don't forget that in comparison to last year, they are also adding Derrek Lee, a 1.000 OPS type hitter with some speed.

Lee has been a mid .800 OPS type hitter for most of his entire career, including his playing time last season in Chicago and his 2004 season with the Cubs. While it's possible he could go back to 2005 form, given his career numbers, I think it's a stretch to think of him as a 1.000 OPS type hitter. 2005 looks like the outlier.

[Nick]

Too many inconsistent players to do that.

Teams will be able to pitch around Lee and Berkman....unless Ensberg and Scott are going good, this team needs good pitching to compete every night.

Right now with Ausmus, Everett and the pitcher, we have 33% of the batter as pretty much guaranteed outs.

DD

Uhh... I was talking about Derek Lee.

The Astros offense will be contingent on either Ensberg or Scott (or both) having a better than average year... I don't think that's too much to ask.

Berkman will get his.

[DaDakota]

Uhh... I was talking about Derek Lee.

The Astros offense will be contingent on either Ensberg or Scott (or both) having a better than average year... I don't think that's too much to ask.

Berkman will get his.

My bad.....

I still think the Astros offense will be inconsistent, and for a team that has always relied on it's pitching, I am worried.

DD

[Joe Joe]

like the Texas Rangers? :)

What's with the Ranger bashing? The AL is much stronger than the NL right now. If the Rangers were in the NL central, they may have been able to keep the WS champs out of the playoffs.

[Joe Joe]

The Astros offense will be contingent on either Ensberg or Scott (or both) having a better than average year... I don't think that's too much to ask.

Have either of those players even had an average year? It seems they only have great or crappy seasons.

[Nick]

My bad.....

I still think the Astros offense will be inconsistent, and for a team that has always relied on it's pitching, I am worried.

DD

Always relied? You mean since 2004? You always need good pitching to win, and teams can win alone with great pitching and terrible offenses, but your argument implies that the offense will be just as bad as it was in 05 and 06, and statistics say that won't be the case.

Even when they had Kent, Beltran, or the old Killer B's... it's always been inconsistent.

If anything during the last two years of apparent "offensive ineptitude" should teach you, its that even the most mediocre of offenses will be there in stretches... but you still need stars to carry you through the long haul.

The offense won't be at a superstar level... but it won't be anemic anymore either... and that's a huge improvement. Lee will get his, Berkman will get his... both will be near all-star levels. Its up to Scott or Ensberg (or both) to have a 25+HR, decent average, decent OPS season to make the offense highly functional.

[The Cat]

Too many inconsistent players to do that.

Teams will be able to pitch around Lee and Berkman....unless Ensberg and Scott are going good, this team needs good pitching to compete every night.

Right now with Ausmus, Everett and the pitcher, we have 33% of the batter as pretty much guaranteed outs.

DD

In addition to the power upgrade with Carlos Lee, I think you'll be surprised how much the consistency improves with Burke instead of Taveras. While Taveras' OBP certainly wasn't as low as Everett's, it's still far too low for the top of the order, and he gave very little potential for extra-base hits or driving in runs when the opportunities arose. Having only two positions as clear holes instead of 3 (sometimes 4 depending on which Biggio shows up) will make a difference.

[Buck Turgidson]

...they even have a decent hitting catcher
Hell, they're guaranteed to win, if you listen to some. ;)

I like their offense a bit more than the Stros'. I like the Stros' pitching depth, on the big club & waiting in the wings for callup (Gutierrez, Albers, Estrada, Patton) a bit more than theirs. I like the Stros bully more than theirs. But that's all on paper.

We'll see if somebody steps up...every year it's supposed to be the Cubs. This year everybody's talking about the Brewers too.

[Nick]

What's with the Ranger bashing? The AL is much stronger than the NL right now. If the Rangers were in the NL central, they may have been able to keep the WS champs out of the playoffs.

I don't think you need this BBS to bash the Rangers... they haven't been relavent since they signed A-rod... and even then, that continued a trend of bone-headed signings that have that franchise stuck in mud.

They play in the AL... that's not going to change... they need to compete some time this millenium.

[xiki]

It's simple really....the Cubs rotation is SO good that Mark Prior and Kerry Wood can't crack it. :)

No, they just 'crack'.

[NJRocket]

I was actually about to type "at best, they're the Texas Rangers of the NL".

But, I'm actually not sold on Soriano being the ultimate panacea for that offense... especially if he's batting leadoff.


he was a 40/40 guy in the leadoff hole last year

[MadMax]

What's with the Ranger bashing? The AL is much stronger than the NL right now. If the Rangers were in the NL central, they may have been able to keep the WS champs out of the playoffs.

It's their personality. Bring in great hitters...ignore pitching...get beat. Pitching is the key to long-term success in baseball. Their model doesn't work.

[MadMax]

he was a 40/40 guy in the leadoff hole last year

and it mitigates the punch of being a 40/40 guy. 1/4 of his AB's come with absolutely no one on base. the other 3/4 come with the pitcher batting before him. you don't waste that sort of potential run production.

[Nick]

he was a 40/40 guy in the leadoff hole last year

And how great were the teams' offenses that he put up these amazing numbers for?

Just as MM said... you pay guys boat-loads to hit that well with people on base, not to start off games.

Soriano is a GREAT player... and a unique talent... hopefully making the $$$ won't get to his head. But the Cubs can get a 50/50 season out of him batting leadoff, and still won't do anything offensively if Derek Lee or Ramirez falters.

And judging by their team makeup, they're going to have to outslug teams to remain in the hunt.

[Major]

Lee has been a mid .800 OPS type hitter for most of his entire career, including his playing time last season in Chicago and his 2004 season with the Cubs. While it's possible he could go back to 2005 form, given his career numbers, I think it's a stretch to think of him as a 1.000 OPS type hitter. 2005 looks like the outlier.

On the surface, that's true. But between 2004 and 2005, he changed hitting styles - there was a lot of discussion about that while he was an MVP candidate before the Cubs really faded. He began 2006 in the same mode - with a 1.000+ OPS through all of April. Then he broke his wrist in early May, came back too early, struggled, went back on the DL, tried to come back again, wasn't healthy, and then the season ended. He didn't have any strength and couldn' bat properly. So, for what it's worth, the entire sub-par section of 2006 was injured (I only know all this because I had him on my fantasy team). He's apparently back to 100% now. If true, I'd expect him to be far closer to the 2005 Lee than the 2004 and earlier version.

[The Cat]

On the surface, that's true. But between 2004 and 2005, he changed hitting styles - there was a lot of discussion about that while he was an MVP candidate before the Cubs really faded. He began 2006 in the same mode - with a 1.000+ OPS through all of April. Then he broke his wrist in early May, came back too early, struggled, went back on the DL, tried to come back again, wasn't healthy, and then the season ended. He didn't have any strength and couldn' bat properly. So, for what it's worth, the entire sub-par section of 2006 was injured (I only know all this because I had him on my fantasy team). He's apparently back to 100% now. If true, I'd expect him to be far closer to the 2005 Lee than the 2004 and earlier version.

It was two weeks of April. I'll give him credit for switching hitting styles, but I highly doubt it elevated his game that much... it would seem more likely a combination of that along with a career year. I'll agree he's probably better than his 2004 and previous numbers, but I'd be surprised if he tops 1.000 again. We'll see.

[Buck Turgidson]

and it mitigates the punch of being a 40/40 guy. 1/4 of his AB's come with absolutely no one on base. the other 3/4 come with the pitcher batting before him. you don't waste that sort of potential run production.
exactamundo.

last year soriano, batting exclusively leadoff, had a bit more than twice the ABs with the bases empty than he did with runners on: 435 to 212

ryan zimmerman, batting in the 3/4/5/6 spots had his AB's evenly split ~310-300

Nick Johnson, batting 3/4/5 (mostly 4th) had an approx. even split ~260-230.

[NJRocket]

Just as MM said... you pay guys boat-loads to hit that well with people on base, not to start off games.

.

he had like 100 rbis last yr...with an anemic offense which was probably REALLY anemic towards the bottom....he could easily top that with chicagos lineup (not to mention hitting in Wrigley vs hitting in RFK)

[MadMax]

he had like 100 rbis last yr...with an anemic offense which was probably REALLY anemic towards the bottom....he could easily top that with chicagos lineup (not to mention hitting in Wrigley vs hitting in RFK)

yeah, he had 95. imagine how many he would have had in the 3/4/5 holes? 110? 120? i mean, he finished with over 40 HR's and a slugging percentage of .560.

i can not imagine batting that guy leadoff. just seems wasteful to me.

[NJRocket]

yeah, he had 95. imagine how many he would have had in the 3/4/5 holes? 110? 120? i mean, he finished with over 40 HR's and a slugging percentage of .560.

i can not imagine batting that guy leadoff. just seems wasteful to me.

on the flip side...maybe he sees less pitches in the 3, 4 and 5 hole....when the guy is a huge threat to steal a base, he is going to see his share of pitches....and pitching around him so that he can lead off the game or inning with a walk, isnt the best idea....i think he will continue to see his share of pitches with guys like Lee and Ramirez batting behind him

[Nick]

on the flip side...maybe he sees less pitches in the 3, 4 and 5 hole....when the guy is a huge threat to steal a base, he is going to see his share of pitches....and pitching around him so that he can lead off the game or inning with a walk, isnt the best idea....i think he will continue to see his share of pitches with guys like Lee and Ramirez batting behind him

With a guy who strikes out as much as Soriano does... nobody needs to pitch around him.

[robbie380]

I feel that the Stros' 1-2-3 is on par with any of the other 1-2-3 in the NL, both in terms of potential as well as question marks.

Oswalt is the best pitcher in the NL... period. Carpenter comes close, but he's older, has more injury problems, and has nowhere near the "stones" that Roy can carry around. Most cardinals fans would take Roy in a second... and that's pretty much all the comparison you need.

Jennings is the difference maker. If he merely matches the year he had at still hitter-friendly (even with the humidor) coors... I'll be ecstatic. The fact that he's looking to most likely improve (with his sinker sinking more) still has me confident that he'll be an ideal #2 guy. I love his durability... its calming to know you'll have a guy who'll most likely take the ball every 4th day without fail. And there's no reason why he can't be as effective as Jeff Suppan was for the Cardinals down the stretch last year.

Woody is woody... 40 years old, but still competitive in the NL. I wasn't thrilled about the signing when it happened (mainly because I still was counting on Pettite being here), but now he's going to have to bring it. I expect him to do very well the first couple of months of the season, but then potentially start getting knocked around a little, or possibly have some arm trouble. Then again, he knows what he's doing out there... and that's also calming out of your #3 guy (no Tim Reddings, please).

After that, I'm more excited about the possibilities of Nieve, Sampson, Albers, and that certain #22... then I am about who's actually going to be pitching in the #4 and #5 spots to start the season. If its Wandy, so be it... we have a good enough bullpen, and the earlier he gets knocked out, the better the team will be for it for the rest of the season.

In the end, pitching is no longer a given... that's for sure. But it normally isn't a given for any team in MLB, including the Yankees. We were BLESSED to have three pitchers pitching at Cy Young levels in 2005. Its the #1 reason we made the World Series (given our lineup).

Now, its back to reality... the Stros are better than they were in 02 and 03 (pre-Roger/Andy), and the rest of the NL is much worse. its wide open... there for the taking.


how can you say the rest of the NL is much worse? you can just look at our division and see that we will be fighting the brew crew for 2nd. their staff is clearly better from top to bottom and they don't have the closer issue like we do. coco cordero isn't stellar but lidge is a head case.



seperately...why does nobody care about about woody's ERA and WHIP away from petco? 5.26 ERA and 1.54 WHIP over 145 1/3 IP isn't #3 starter numbers.

we need THREE of the farm hands to step up in a bad way. i just can't see woody being dependable at all as a #3 starter with his declining innings and poor splits. who knows maybe we will get lucky and nieve will bust out, sampson becomes a servicable 5, and wandy implodes quickly so he doesn't destroy our team. GO ASTROS!!

[jopatmc]

Chris Sampson is going to have a very good season for us.

[MadMax]

how can you say the rest of the NL is much worse? you can just look at our division and see that we will be fighting the brew crew for 2nd. their staff is clearly better from top to bottom and they don't have the closer issue like we do. coco cordero isn't stellar but lidge is a head case.
!!

he said the NL is worse than it was in 2002/03, before roger and andy.

83 games won the NL Central in 2006. we'll see how much everyone really improved.

[RocketManJosh]

I think our season may ultimately come down to how well Nieve and Sampson can come through for us (after I believe Wandy is pulled out of the rotation). This is a wide open year and its gonna be fun. Can't wait until Monday.

[weslinder]

on the flip side...maybe he sees less pitches in the 3, 4 and 5 hole....when the guy is a huge threat to steal a base, he is going to see his share of pitches....and pitching around him so that he can lead off the game or inning with a walk, isnt the best idea....i think he will continue to see his share of pitches with guys like Lee and Ramirez batting behind him

I think this is it. I believe both Texas and Washington tried to bat him third. I don't think there's another hitter like him. He's got the power of a clean-up guy, the speed of a lead-off guy, but the kind of free-swinging approach that hurts both. He rarely walks, strikes out at a ridiculous pace, but is too good of a baserunner to pitch around unless there is slower runner on-base in front of him.

[redgoose]

Im suprised nobody has mentioned the Brewere's pitching staff yet. It's by far the best in the NL Central! Maybe the entire NL. Just like we we're a couple years back, they have the ability to play small ball and win on any given day. Our division is gonna spend half the year beating up on eachother. 85 wins should seal the deal for a playoff lock if that's all it takes for the division. :eek:

Trading for another pitcher will be a non factor again this year. So many teams will still be in the race just like last year, it would cost the so called winner an arm and a leg for most likely for a a rental. :( Just wait for the Dontrelle Willis sweepstakes to heat up! If we end up sucking, we will hit the mega jackpot with Jennings, if his ERA is around 4.0, and possibly Lidge as a set up man or closer. Heck, we might even get alot of offers for Woody if he's average beacuse of his experience. We could rebuild pretty fast. :)

However, i'd much rather win! But the options are very intriguing if we tank. :cool:

Rotation has positive spin
Starters have looked strong
By RICK BRAUN
rbraun@journalsentinel.com
Posted: March 17, 2007
Phoenix - The Milwaukee Brewers entered spring training feeling pretty good about their starting rotation.

Brewers/MLB


Photo/AP

Dave Bush and the rest of Milwaukee's starters have given the Brewers some strong performances recently.


Beginning with last Monday, the Brewers starters have gotten into a run of strong performances that has to have manager Ned Yost smiling.

Dave Bush pitched four innings of one-hit ball in a "B" game Monday, and Carlos Villanueva pitched four innings of two-hit ball in the "A" game. A day later, Ben Sheets threw five innings of two-hit, shutout ball. On Thursday, Jeff Suppan threw five innings of no-hit ball. On Friday, Claudio Vargas became the first Brewer to go six innings, turning in the first "quality start" (at least six innings, no more than three earned runs) of the spring.

The only stumble came Wednesday, when Chris Capuano gave up seven runs but allowed only a couple of hard-hit balls.

On Saturday, Bush went five innings plus one batter and allowed three runs on seven hits in an 11-4 victory over the Oakland Athletics.

"We felt good about our staff coming in," Yost said Saturday morning. "We know that they have a chance of being a very solid five-man rotation."

As the rotation shapes up, it appears to be Sheets, Suppan, Capuano, Bush and Vargas, and each has at least 72 major-league starts under his belt.

And then there's Villanueva in reserve should anyone get injured or falter.

"We're going to be in the ball game just about every day," Yost said. "They're going to give us a chance to win every time they step on the mound, and that's the important thing."

And if the starting pitching resembles in the regular season what it's done in the past week, things should be pretty interesting around Miller Park deep into the season.

"There's the potential to be really good, that's for sure," said reliever Derrick Turnbow. "The guys that we have certainly have the capabilities to go out there and pitch deep into games all the time and giving the team a chance to win.

"Benny has a chance any time he goes out there to dominate a game or possibly throw a no-hitter. I think it's something where when they brought all these guys in as starters, they knew they had the potential to do this. This past week we've seen a little surge of it."

A year ago the Brewers felt pretty good about their rotation, too, but some questions lingered about the health of Sheets, who started the season on the disabled list. When Sheets again went on the disabled list from May 10 to July 25 and Tomo Ohka went on the DL for approximately the same period, the Brewers struggled mightily.

This time, Sheets is as healthy as he has been in spring training since 2004. He had back surgery after the 2004 season and his 2005 season ended with the torn latissimus dorsi muscle in the back of his shoulder.

In past camps the Brewers brought Sheets along slowly. In this camp he's doing everything the rest of the starters are doing, including all fielding and hitting drills.

Strong bid: Conventional wisdom in baseball usually dictates that a young starter who doesn't make the rotation will go down to the minors and start every fifth day.

That might not be the case with Villanueva if one reads between the lines of some of Yost's comments.

When it was suggested that young pitchers - Villanueva is 23 - most often benefit from pitching in regular turns, Yost left some room for interpretation when it comes to Villanueva.

"He's different than a young guy," Yost said. "You can see where pitching every five days would have a benefit for a guy like (Yovani) Gallardo, for Manny Parra, (Mike) Jones - some of these younger guys. But Carlos is at the stage of his career where he knows what he's doing. He knows how to pitch and he's ready to be in the big leagues."

Bearing the heat: With the Phoenix area having experienced record heat over the past week or so, Yost said he's had to make some adjustments to keep his players from wearing down.

"The sun just drains you," Yost said. "Especially these last couple of days I would not extend these guys out. I let 'em play five innings and then get another group in there to play four."

Yost was unable to do that Saturday with centerfielder Bill Hall because he had only two extra outfielders with the team at the Athletics' complex.

Yost also said he has cut back batting practice from about an hour to 40 minutes on mornings where the team buses to a road exhibition game.


http://www.jsonline.com/story/index.aspx?id=578864

[BMoney]

Im suprised nobody has mentioned the Brewere's pitching staff yet. It's by far the best in the NL Central! Maybe the entire NL. [/url]

I agree with you. I think they are the team to beat in the central. Francisco Cordero pitched really well for them in the closer role last year, so they have some good bullpen depth to go along with their starting pitching. Ben Sheets is still one of those guys who promises more than he delivers, but they have a lot of starters to throw out there. As much as it pains me to say it, I think the Dodgers are going to be trouble, too. The Astros will stick around, but I wouldn't say they are favorites.

[redgoose]

I agree with you. I think they are the team to beat in the central. Francisco Cordero pitched really well for them in the closer role last year, so they have some good bullpen depth to go along with their starting pitching. Ben Sheets is still one of those guys who promises more than he delivers, but they have a lot of starters to throw out there. As much as it pains me to say it, I think the Dodgers are going to be trouble, too. The Astros will stick around, but I wouldn't say they are favorites.

Not to mention how much Busch improved in the 2nd half last year. He's around as good as Sheets is now! He's beginning to come into his own. Or even more scary, he already did last year.

I agree with you about sticking around. However, i think our whole division minus Pittsburgh (who hasn't been above .500 since Bonds left....lol) will be cramped all together, playing .500 ball vs each other. Each teams have their own holes to fill. And with FA prices skyrocketing again, trades values will always follow. I don't see anyone in our division making trades, instead just calling up people from the minors. That could be how it all ends. Not the team with the best farm system, but the best one for them to temporarily plug their holes with. :eek:

[AggieDentist]

can Matt Schaub pitch, too?