[msnbc.com] Jason Jennings ready to bust out

[magnetik]

it also included Harang and a few others.. but I will just include the blurb about Jennings. Can't wait to see him play for the stro's.

Source (http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/17520624/)

[quote]
Jason Jennings
Right-handed hurlers are among top players to watch

The 2002 National League Rookie of the Year has been handicapped by having to pitch his home starts at hitter-friendly Coors Field for five-plus seasons. But all that changes this year as in the offseason Jennings was dealt by Colorado to Houston.

Jennings not only throws one of the heaviest and nastiest sinkers in the majors, he also has a great curveball. That's a combination you don't see very often in a major-league pitcher.

Most sinkerball pitchers have a 1-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio, but because of his curveball Jennings has a 2-to-1 ratio and that's impressive.

In Jennings' new surroundings -- Minute Maid Park in Houston -- he'll be throwing his sinker in heavy air and that will make him dominant. Yes, there is a short porch in left field in Houston, but Jennings won't worry much about that as it's more important to him to have the heavy air to enhance the effectiveness of his sinker.

Jennings should be much more aggressive early in the count in Houston as getting strike one at Minute Maid Park will be a whole lot easier than getting strike one at Coors Field since he won't have to nibble early in the count as he did in Colorado.

Jennings was born in Dallas so he's coming back home to Texas, and when that's the case it means a little more to a player. He just has to guard against putting too much pressure on himself too early in trying to justify the trade through his performances.

I figure Jennings to go off and have a huge season. The Astros trading for him will turn out to be a tremendous move.

[MadMax]

Sounds good to me!

[DaDakota]

That would be great !

DD

[Dr.Strangelove]

Music to my ears

[Uprising]

Put a smile on my face! April 1st can't come soon enough! :D

Edit: ...crap I ruined the 4 words to a post streak.

[rodrick_98]

he better, or else we may be seeing gutierrez or patton

[Ottomaton]

That is a nice point in the article about the thicker air and the sinker that I hadn't thought about. Anything that makes people hit the ball on the ground when they hit in the direction of the Crawford Boxes is a good thing. With the humidity and the sea-level air, if his sinker is as good as the writer says it should be fun to watch.

[texanskan]

he better, or else we may be seeing gutierrez or patton

if we don't sign him to a deal than yes you will see those guys.

I think the trade was stupid but it will really look bad if Jennings is not an Astro in 08. Imagine trading two top prospects plus your starting CF for a rent a pitcher (one that is not a number one starter at that) at the trade deadline. Folks would be outraged if he does not stay here this deal is not that much better than an in-season move.

[Mr. Clutch]

And then he'll be a free agent and we'll have to pay him big money or say goodbye.

[redgoose]

The way pitchers got paid this last offseason, if he does have a good year than he's as good as gone. I wouldn't be surprised if he gets 15-16 wins, then 15-16 million. :cool:

[Joe Joe]

The way pitchers got paid this last offseason, if he does have a good year than he's as good as gone. I wouldn't be surprised if he gets 15-16 wins, then 15-16 million.

15-16 million. I think if he does well, he'll get more than that per year.

[magnetik]

15-16 million. I think if he does well, he'll get more than that per year.

no way. that's Clemens type money. maybe if he has a couple good years in a row.. plus he is now playing in his home state... which sometimes means more than money.

[EddieWasSnubbed]

no way. that's Clemens type money. maybe if he has a couple good years in a row.. plus he is now playing in his home state... which sometimes means more than money.
Well, the difference is this - Clemens gets payed that much money for Four to Five MONTHS of service.

[armyman789]

is he coming out of the closet? :)

[Joe Joe]

no way. that's Clemens type money. maybe if he has a couple good years in a row.. plus he is now playing in his home state... which sometimes means more than money.

That's pettite money. If JJ does well, he'll have two good seasons back to back,be relatively young in comparison, and doesn't have the injury concerns.

[redgoose]

Ted Lilly got 40 million/4 years and has a 4.60 era with a 59-58 record. Would Jennings settle for 10 million/year if he breaks out? Is he so in love with a team he's never played for and a city he doesn't live in to take below market value? :rolleyes:

Pettite is older, has injury concerns, and already hit his peak or he would have gotten a longer term contract. Jennings is just hitting his prime where the 3 year max term contract for pitchers isn't an unwriten rule. Plus if he proves he can pitch a Minute Maid and Colorado, he will have all the options he wants.

[superden]

In other words, if he pitches like crap, we sign him for cheap but we get robbed in that trade. If he does well, we have to overpay him because he had a good pitching year. Way to think ahead Timmy P.

[The Cat]

I think the trade was stupid but it will really look bad if Jennings is not an Astro in 08. Imagine trading two top prospects plus your starting CF for a rent a pitcher (one that is not a number one starter at that) at the trade deadline. Folks would be outraged if he does not stay here this deal is not that much better than an in-season move.

No one with any kind of baseball knowledge considered Buchholz anywhere close to a "top prospect." Furthermore, when your "starting CF" has no power, no OBP and a mediocre average, maybe that's a sign he shouldn't be a starting CF on a contending team. The Astros apparently learned that lesson.

[kaleidosky]

No one with any kind of baseball knowledge considered Buchholz anywhere close to a "top prospect." Furthermore, when your "starting CF" has no power, no OBP and a mediocre average, maybe that's a sign he shouldn't be a starting CF on a contending team. The Astros apparently learned that lesson.

you're not gonna convince him with any kind of reasoning. he's stuck in the opinion that the astros made a stupid trade...and that carlos lee was a bad signing.. and that we need a bunch more stolen bases on this squad. and that purpura sucks. we'll see where he is in 6 months

[msn]

you're not gonna convince him with any kind of reasoning. he's stuck in the opinion that the astros made a stupid trade...and that carlos lee was a bad signing.. and that we need a bunch more stolen bases on this squad. and that purpura sucks. we'll see where he is in 6 months
There are others on this board much more unreasonably negative than he, however.

[Joshfast]

No one with any kind of baseball knowledge considered Buchholz anywhere close to a "top prospect." Furthermore, when your "starting CF" has no power, no OBP and a mediocre average, maybe that's a sign he shouldn't be a starting CF on a contending team. The Astros apparently learned that lesson.

But but...Willy was fast!!! :p

Seriously, you hit the nail on the head. I loved Willy's developed defense in Minute Maid's monster centerfield but this wasn't an awful trade for the Astros at all.

[Mr. Clutch]

But but...Willy was fast!!! :p

Seriously, you hit the nail on the head. I loved Willy's developed defense in Minute Maid's monster centerfield but this wasn't an awful trade for the Astros at all.

It still seems to me like giving up 2 prospects for a mediocre 1 year rental.

[Buck Turgidson]

It still seems to me like giving up 2 prospects for a mediocre 1 year rental.
Except that you don't know he's mediocre & you don't know he's a rental.

We'll see.

[Mr. Clutch]

Except that you don't know he's mediocre & you don't know he's a rental.

We'll see.

I don't know that he will be mediocre, but I know he has been the past few years. We don't know if he's a rental, but we know we'll have to pay quite a bit to keep him if he does well. And, we also don't know that the guys we traded will be mediocre.

[Buck Turgidson]

I don't know that he will be mediocre, but I know he has been the past few years. We don't know if he's a rental, but we know we'll have to pay quite a bit to keep him if he does well. And, we also don't know that the guys we traded will be mediocre.
Prior to last year, sure. He was pretty damn far from mediocre in '06.

The Stros think he "got it" at some point the last year or so. They, and JJ, spoke about it at the time of the trade: that he's matured, knows how to pitch now, etc.

We'll see. If he leaves after this year, then yes, that trade looks pretty bad.

[Mr. Clutch]

Prior to last year, sure. He was pretty damn far from mediocre in '06.

The Stros think he "got it" at some point the last year or so. They, and JJ, spoke about it at the time of the trade: that he's matured, knows how to pitch now, etc.

We'll see. If he leaves after this year, then yes, that trade looks pretty bad.

Agreed. I actually do like Jennings. I remember reading several good things about him over the years. And considering he pitched in Colorado his high ERA is understandable. It's just the 1 year thing that bothers me.

[Major]

No one with any kind of baseball knowledge considered Buchholz anywhere close to a "top prospect."

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/features/05top10s/astros.html

Baseball America, top Astros prospects of the Decade.

2004: Taylor Buchholz

[The Cat]

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/features/05top10s/astros.html

Baseball America, top Astros prospects of the Decade.

2004: Taylor Buchholz

Note the year: 2004. The trade occurred in December of 2006.

[Groogrux]

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/features/05top10s/astros.html

Baseball America, top Astros prospects of the Decade.

2004: Taylor Buchholz

You may want to check your calendar. :)

[Major]

Note the year: 2004. The trade occurred in December of 2006.

So you think in two years, he went from the absolute top of the Astros organization to a nothing? Let's see, in 2004, he's the Astros top prospect.

In 2006, he's wins a starting job for the Astros over other "top prospects". He goes 26 innings in April, giving up 12 hits with a WHIP of 0.76, and has one of the most dominant months of any pitcher in all of major league baseball in his first year in the majors. He then proceeds to really struggle for much of the season with inconsistency.

That December, he's no longer anything? You don't go from being the single best prospect in an organization to nothing that quickly, especially not when you slows flashes of being pretty damn good at the major league level.

[The Cat]

So you think in two years, he went from the absolute top of the Astros organization to a nothing? Let's see, in 2004, he's the Astros top prospect.

In 2006, he's wins a starting job for the Astros over other "top prospects". He goes 26 innings in April, giving up 12 hits with a WHIP of 0.76, and has one of the most dominant months of any pitcher in all of major league baseball in his first year in the majors. He then proceeds to really struggle for much of the season with inconsistency.

That December, he's no longer anything? You don't go from being the single best prospect in an organization to nothing that quickly, especially not when you slows flashes of being pretty damn good at the major league level.

I didn't realize I said he was nothing. I said he wasn't a top prospect. There's a difference. Furthermore, claiming someone is a "top prospect" of an organization means very little if that organization's minor league system isn't strong. In the Astros case, it's been weak for at least the last four years. Buchholz fell out of favor last season for an inability to keep his fastball down and a lack of command on his off-speed pitches. His fastball, while solid, isn't enough to compensate for his issues with location and leaving the ball up. His breaking stuff isn't sharp enough to make up for that either.

Most experts said at the time of the Wagner trade that Buchholz was a good prospect, but not an elite one of the Hamels/Floyd class, and that made it a good trade for the Phillies. In fact, the buzz at the time was that Astacio was the more talented pitcher with a higher ceiling.

Did he have a quality April? Sure. Of course, the Astros also had another starter excel in April, with a 2.53 ERA and 4-0 record. His name was Wandy Rodriguez. Younger pitchers often have excellent starts to their careers, only to have to make adjustments when hitters learn scouting reports. Buchholz did not.

There's a reason why a pitching-starved team like the Rockies projects him in the bullpen. There's a reason why his ERA is at almost 7 this spring.
http://www.denverpost.com/rockies/ci_5390506

And none of this even mentions his history of injuries, including multiple sources who claim his shoulder was questionable enough for the White Sox to scrap the entire Garland deal.

I'd be willing to make a tip jar bet with anyone that Buchholz won't have one season in his entire career of 150+ IP and an ERA of under 4.