Astros Need Commitment by Clemens

[MadMax]

I agree with a lot of this article (disagree on the Huff part).

Love the idea of Dontrelle! Where do I sign? Definitely agree with the title of the article.

http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/sports/lopez/4231493.html

Astros need commitment by Clemens


By JOHN P. LOPEZ
Copyright 2006 Houston Chronicle


OVER the first 28 and last 12 games of the 2006 season, the Astros went a spark- ling 29-11.

It was easy to believe during those stretches that this was a playoff team. But with postseason dreams dashed, the worst thing the Astros could do from here is diminish or discount what happened
during the 122 games in the middle.

The Astros were 53-69 over that span. With deficiencies in the defense, holes in the lineup and inconsistencies all around, they often were a miserable-looking bunch.

As much fun as the first few and last few games were, the reality of 2006 was that almost half the teams in the majors — 13 finished with a better record than the Astros' 82-80.

For a team that featured three of the best starting pitchers and possibly the best hitter in the National League, 82-80 means there are severe shortcomings that must be addressed. A slide has begun, and that's why this is as crucial an offseason as the Astros have had.

Call it what you want — transition, evolution. But by any name, 2006 did not show how close this team was to the Yankees and Mets of the baseball world, but how far the Astros have slipped from that level.


Budget begins with Rocket
The only way to rise again is for Astros management to reverse its way of thinking when it comes to Roger Clemens and setting a payroll budget.

It begins with Clemens. You love him. I love him. We all love him. But enough with the wooing and waiting. No more gifts delivered to his house. No more kowtowing to his every whim and machination.

And no more waiting for the chance to sign the greatest pitcher of our time to a half-season contract.

Go ahead, Astros. Tell Clemens how much you want him and love him. Then set a firm Dec. 1 deadline for him to tell you once and for all if he will pitch in 2007.

The Astros likely would want a decision by then from Andy Pettitte, too. But Pettitte should get a bit longer string because he won't cost as much, he'll be offered a one-year contract with an option, and he needs time to ponder if his elbow, which has had issues in two of the past three years, will hold up.


December deadline
As tantalizing a prospect as re-signing Clemens is, the December deadline for him should be non-negotiable. It's a must, because so many
juicy possibilities involving the Astros seem to be percolating, and around baseball, things begin to happen in December.

The annual winter meetings, which are attended by virtually every decision-maker in the game, including agents, begin Dec. 3. The Astros cannot afford to spend another round of offseason meetings doing little more than twiddling their thumbs and hanging out by the cocktail shrimp while others are remaking their clubs. Even Clemens should recognize
the importance of making a call, if only for bolstering his World Series hopes should he return.

As much as a corner outfielder is a priority for this club, it all begins with starting pitching. And the Astros will have a legitimate shot at two starters who could step into a No. 2 or No. 3 role and offer proven ability and experience.

Consider Houston native Woody Williams and Marlins ace lefty Dontrelle Willis in the Astros' sights.

Williams is a free agent who would love to end his career at home, like Pettitte and Clemens. Willis is the most intriguing of options, but acquiring him hinges solely on having a decision from Clemens by Dec. 1.

Willis is entering an arbitration-eligible offseason. He made $4.3 million in 2006 but figures to command between $6 million and $7 million in arbitration. Budget-slashing Marlins owner Jeffrey Loria will be receptive to trade talks.


Willis targeted
Over the past two years, no team in baseball has made it known more than the Astros that it would like to swing a deal for Willis. General manager Tim Purpura has had off-and-on discussions, with nothing materializing in large part because of the 1-2-3 punch on the Astros' payroll.

It all trickles down from Clemens' decision. So, too, does the 2007 payroll budget.

Get the commitment from Clemens by Dec. 1, and attention can turn to helping other parts of the roster, with more time to make deals happen.

If Clemens announces his retirement, then everything opens up, and money can be spent without reservation.

For all the big things Astros owner Drayton McLane has done right in recent years, one of his biggest mistakes year in and year out has been giving his baseball men a hard-line budget.

Telling Purpura and team president Tal Smith to put together a 2007 team for, say, $90 million and not a dollar more is like telling them to make the proverbial square peg fit into a round hole.

With options such as
Willis on the Astros' radar, along with veteran Yankees catcher Jorge Posada and
free-agent outfielders Alfonso Soriano and Carlos Lee, this offseason will require creativity and flexibility with the
payroll.


Bullpen adequate
That's before the Astros even start kicking around trades. Again, it's safe to assume closer Brad Lidge, who holds high value, will be one name mentioned. The Astros like the Dan Wheeler and Chad Qualls 1-2 punch to close games. And Fernando Nieve, who thrived out of the bullpen with a 3.13 ERA and .200 batting average against after the All-Star break, is being groomed as a late-inning setup man.

Willy Taveras also will be a trade commodity, and so, too, will some of the Astros' talented young pitchers. Jason Lane figures to return in lieu of Aubrey Huff, because Huff will demand a multiyear contract. Despite his long slump, Morgan Ensberg could platoon with Mike Lamb at third, and Lane more so than Huff would be a better fit behind Luke Scott in the outfield or as a late-inning defensive replacement.

The holes can be plugged and the inconsistencies with this team fixed quickly. But only if the Astros take a firm stand with Clemens and a flexible one with the budget.

[A-Train]

Did I just read the words "Bullpen" and "Adequate" in an Astros article?

[MadMax]

Did I just read the words "Bullpen" and "Adequate" in an Astros article?

our bullpen was a strength this year, a-train. particularly from the all star break on, when they had the lowest ERA in the majors.

[NJRocket]

Wonder if we could pull something off involving Lidge and Dontrelle...obviously the Fish want yong players back so it might cost us a minor leaguer or 2....interesting. Wouldn't have thought we were so hell bent on getting Willis.

Love to see us end up re-signing Clemens and Pettitte...adding Willis.....and throwing Carlos Lee or Vernon Wells into the mix.

[MadMax]

Wouldn't have thought we were so hell bent on getting Willis.
.

i've actually heard rumblings of this from various folks. people i know and media bits as well. but i haven't heard anyone "summarize" it as lopez did, yet. just that the astros have repeatedly expressed interest in willis.

[crose]

Wonder if we could pull something off involving Lidge and Dontrelle...obviously the Fish want yong players back so it might cost us a minor leaguer or 2....interesting. Wouldn't have thought we were so hell bent on getting Willis.

Love to see us end up re-signing Clemens and Pettitte...adding Willis.....and throwing Carlos Lee or Vernon Wells into the mix.
Or Dontrelle and Willy T? The marlins do need a true centerfielder.

[MadMax]

Or Dontrelle and Willy T? The marlins do need a true centerfielder.

that wouldn't surprise me at all.

[Ric]

i doubt the validity of the willis conjecture. two years of clandestine maneuvering and the usual big dogs (yanks, mets and red sox) haven't picked up the scent? highly unlikely.

if there've been any discussions, they probably went like this:
(on the phone)
tim p: hey, flordia gm guy - is dontrelle willis available? no? ok, thanks.

(six months later)
tim p: hey, flordia gm guy - it's tim p, again - still no? ok. thanks.

(three months later)
tim p: yeah, hi, it's - really? so hell has NOT frozen over? ok, got it. check.

(one month later)
tim p: h - ok. sorry.

(one week later)
tim p: hi, i was - just... the police? really?

(one day later)
tim p: hey, i got your invitation to join you in reality - thought it was REALLY funny... and just so we're clear: where do we stand on willis? ok, sir - please refrain from that kind of language; besides, i doubt that's humanly possible. lord knows i've tried.

(one hour later)
tim p: hey, was in the shower; thought i might've heard the phone ring... no? you there? hello? ok, call me - morgan ensberg's not going to trade himself to florida for dontrelle willis!!!!

it's (likely) a typically sloppy article name-dropping a guy the team has ZERO chance of acquiring to get the fans riled up.

[Nick]

Wonder if we could pull something off involving Lidge and Dontrelle...obviously the Fish want yong players back so it might cost us a minor leaguer or 2....interesting. Wouldn't have thought we were so hell bent on getting Willis.

Love to see us end up re-signing Clemens and Pettitte...adding Willis.....and throwing Carlos Lee or Vernon Wells into the mix.

Lidge is making too much money now, even though he's still in arbitration. He's also too close to needing a long-term deal... this would be the point where the Marlins trade a guy like Lidge (if he was on their team)... I don't see them wanting him in return.

To have a realistic shot of acquiring Willis, the Astros would have to give up the following:
Hunter Pence
Troy Patton
Matt Albers
Josh Anderson
Willy Taveras

And even then... this vast collection of the "best of the best" the Astros have may not get it done.

Also, I trust Lopez articles even less than I trust Justice articles... I don't really think Lopez spends much time talking to anybody for that long (especially not long enough to find out the "inner workings" of the organization).

[crose]

that wouldn't surprise me at all. if i had to guess, that would get it done.
What do you think about Luke sliding over to CF?

[MadMax]

What do you think about Luke sliding over to CF?

i hate it. the guy can barely field a corner OF spot.

[MadMax]

To have a realistic shot of acquiring Willis, the Astros would have to give up the following:
Hunter Pence
Troy Patton
Matt Albers
Josh Anderson
Willy Taveras
).

there is no way anyone offers them a package like that. there is no way the astros would need to offer that much to get that done.

[crose]

i hate it. the guy can barely field a corner OF spot.
True, but he does have speed, and if we were to lose Willy T in a trade, and were not able to get something resembling a CF in return(along w/Willis), I think it is an option worth exploring.

Willy T was sub-par his first year in center. I dont know how Lukes arm compares, though.

[Nick]

there is no way anyone offers them a package like that. there is no way the astros would need to offer that much to get that done.

You overvalue the Astros current players/farm system...

They got Hanley Ramirez for Josh Beckett... the Astros do not have a prospect even close to the level of Hanley Ramirez, and if they did, he'd be considered "untouchable" by Pupurra/Drayton (and rightfully so...)

Pence = not so young... but has shown he can hit on every level.
Patton = raw lefty who's future may be in the bullpen, not as a starter
Albers = young starter who could develop into a #2-#3 starter, but not an ace.
Anderson = true CF and leadoff hitter... but unproven at the high levels.
Willy = mixed success in the big leagues... terrible OBP/extra base capability for a leadoff hitter.

So, out of all the guys I mentioned, the Marlins could look at each of them and be very underwhelmed... the Astros have a lot of "good" minor league talent, but not that one guy you could consider "great".

My guess is the Marlins find a trading partner to give them that "great" prospect.

[Buck Turgidson]

Roger Clemens's plans did not affect the Astros offseason moves in '06, I don't see why '07 would be any different. "Special situation" with regards to Clemens & the budget, said Drayton.

Saying that Clemens somehow prevented the Astros from acquiring Willis is ridiculous. If he were available last season, he might not be an Astro, but he sure as hell would not still be a Marlin.

Build the team without him, and if he comes back, great. An early answer along the lines of "I'm planning on coming back if I'm physically able, and if I come back it will be with Houston." would be wonderful, but I doubt his ego allows him to head off all the fawning speculation out of the NE.

I'm not sure JPL spoke to anyone with the Astros before writing this, especially re: Huff, Ensberg, Lane.

[crose]

Lidge is making too much money now, even though he's still in arbitration. He's also too close to needing a long-term deal... this would be the point where the Marlins trade a guy like Lidge (if he was on their team)... I don't see them wanting him in return.

To have a realistic shot of acquiring Willis, the Astros would have to give up the following:
Hunter Pence
Troy Patton
Matt Albers
Josh Anderson
Willy Taveras

And even then... this vast collection of the "best of the best" the Astros have may not get it done.

Also, I trust Lopez articles even less than I trust Justice articles... I don't really think Lopez spends much time talking to anybody for that long (especially not long enough to find out the "inner workings" of the organization).
with Willis set to get a payraise, I do not think the Marlins will be that reluctant to trade him, especially with all of the young pitching they have.

[MadMax]

True, but he does have speed, and if we were to lose Willy T in a trade, and were not able to get something resembling a CF in return(along w/Willis), I think it is an option worth exploring.

Willy T was sub-par his first year in center. I dont know how Lukes arm compares, though.

Luke is just an awful defender. He might have speed...it doesn't matter. He doesn't judge balls well at all. No amount of speed can make up for that.

They'd put Burke in CF right now if there were no Willy, assuming no one else gets picked up to play the position.

[Buck Turgidson]

What do you think about Luke sliding over to CF?
He's not very good in RF or LF, not sure why he would be anything other than bad in CF.

Nick, you're insane. 5-1?

[Nick]

with Willis set to get a payraise, I do not think the Marlins will be that reluctant to trade him, especially with all of the young pitching they have.

No... I agree that the Marlins will trade him... I just think other teams have more top shelf prospects to offer than the Astros.

If I was running the Marlins, I'd take quality over quantity any day... the Astros could offer them a ton of players with substance, but they can't offer them a guy who would be too good for them to pass up.

[MadMax]

You overvalue the Astros current players/farm system...

They got Hanley Ramirez for Josh Beckett... the Astros do not have a prospect even close to the level of Hanley Ramirez, and if they did, he'd be considered "untouchable" by Pupurra/Drayton (and rightfully so...)

Pence = not so young... but has shown he can hit on every level.
Patton = raw lefty who's future may be in the bullpen, not as a starter
Albers = young starter who could develop into a #2-#3 starter, but not an ace.
Anderson = true CF and leadoff hitter... but unproven at the high levels.
Willy = mixed success in the big leagues... terrible OBP/extra base capability for a leadoff hitter.

So, out of all the guys I mentioned, the Marlins could look at each of them and be very underwhelmed... the Astros have a lot of "good" minor league talent, but not that one guy you could consider "great".

My guess is the Marlins find a trading partner to give them that "great" prospect.

i realize we don't have a hanley ramirez. i still don't think they would get an offer accumulating to that many players from anyone. we'll see, i guess.

[MadMax]

Nick, you're insane. 5-1?

this is what i'm saying...no one is going to offer anything of that magnitude, however poor you think those prospects are. i think nick is highly underrating our farm system, frankly.

[Nick]

Nick, you're insane. 5-1?

Maybe if they had found a way to get this done last year, Pence/Patton would have easily gotten it done... but one year later, there are some questions with Patton's arm to be a long-term starter, and Pence (while a stud) is simply one year older and yet to play at AAA (and with good reason, given his swing... but he still had more of the dreaded "P" word associated with him last year).

[doninator]

How about a Lidge/Lane/Hirsh package. Also see if they will take Ensberg. We just need to do what ever it takes to get Willis.

[crose]

Luke is just an awful defender. He might have speed...it doesn't matter. He doesn't judge balls well at all. No amount of speed can make up for that.

They'd put Burke in CF right now if there were no Willy, assuming no one else gets picked up to play the position.
Willy T had the same issues regarding ball judgement, although his speed helped him recover faster. He seemed to get better with time at the position, though.

I am not lobbying to get Luke in CF, but the idea does not scare me. Burke is solid, but hopefully he will playing the majority of games at second. Plus, he does not have an arm for the outfield.

Just an idea...based off of the possibility of landing Willis!

[MadMax]

Willy T had the same issues regarding ball judgement, although his speed helped him recover faster. He seemed to get better with time at the position, though.

I am not lobbying to get Luke in CF, but the idea does not scare me. Burke is solid, but hopefully he will playing the majority of games at second. Plus, he does not have an arm for the outfield.

Just an idea...based off of the possibility of landing Willis!

the idea frightens the hell out of me. again...scott looks lost playing a corner OF spot, frankly. i don't want that guy playing the most expansive CF in the game 81 times a year.

burke's arm as a CF is fine.

honestly, my hope is willy is still in houston next season.

[Nick]

this is what i'm saying...no one is going to offer anything of that magnitude, however poor you think those prospects are. i think nick is highly underrating our farm system, frankly.

What is your assesment of our top prospects?

I don't mean to sound like a Debbie Downer... I'm just basing everything on this:

If the Marlins could get Hanley Ramirez for Beckett... they should be able to get equal (if not better) for a guy who's
a.)younger
b.)a lefty
c.)a dynamic personality ( = sells tickets by himself)
d.)a cy young candidate/runner up last year (Beckett never did that), and
e.)a guy who would be an ambassador/role model for all african american kids which baseball could use to correct a growing problem in the majors (if Willis ever landed on a big profile team, he has the marketing potential to become the FACE of the league).

[MadMax]

What is your assesment of our top prospects?

I don't mean to sound like a Debbie Downer... I'm just basing everything on this:

If the Marlins could get Hanley Ramirez for Beckett... they should be able to get equal (if not better) for a guy who's
a.)younger
b.)a lefty
c.)a dynamic personality ( = sells tickets by himself)
d.)a cy young candidate/runner up last year (Beckett never did that), and
e.)a guy who would be an ambassador/role model for all african american kids which baseball could use to correct a growing problem in the majors (if Willis ever landed on a big profile team, he has the marketing potential to become the FACE of the league).

i think minor league players are a crap-shoot, no matter their name and what they did at AAA. i don't think any team expects a 5-1. you are correct that there may be another team out there that can offer a better prospect. but we have won out in trade scenarios where other teams were seemingly able to offer more before.

[crose]

the idea frightens the hell out of me. again...scott looks lost playing a corner OF spot, frankly. i don't want that guy playing the most expansive CF in the game 81 times a year.

burke's arm as a CF is fine.

honestly, my hope is willy is still in houston next season.
agreed(with wanting Willy in Houston), it just seems that any deal involving Willis would most certainly involve Willy.

The marlins need a centerfielder, and they were interested in Willy this year.

[DieHard Rocket]

If we could somehow swing a deal for Dontrelle, sign Carlos Lee, and re-sign Pettitte ... and then if Clemens wanted back you know they'd break the bank ... what an offseason!

Oswalt
Willis
Clemens
Pettitte
Hirsch / Backe / Sampson / Who Cares?

Ok, I'll wake up now. ;)

[Nick]

i think minor league players are a crap-shoot, no matter their name and what they did at AAA. i don't think any team expects a 5-1. you are correct that there may be another team out there that can offer a better prospect. but we have won out in trade scenarios where other teams were seemingly able to offer more before.

That's all true... but we've NEVER been able to acquire a player like Willis before: a young lefty pitcher with all the potential in the world, and a ton of his career ahead of him.

The closest I can think of is Beltran... and he was miles away from having the potential (at the time of the trade) that Willis currently has.

As for minor league players being crapshoots... they are... but organizations still have ways of evaluating who is better right now (mostly based on age, position, and minor league #'s), and those are the most desirable. Most teams wouldn't have given us a crappy veteran for Roy Oswalt before he hit AA... and even then, nobody was forecasting a Cy Young career. But, just because some prospects pan out, and some suprise out of nowhere... doesn't mean that teams should just take whatever players come there way, regardless of their past performance, and hope to strike gold.

Thus, the Marlins would still likely desire a prospect that is among Baseball America's top 25 rated (which the Astros have none).

[MadMax]

That's all true... but we've NEVER been able to acquire a player like Willis before: a young lefty pitcher with all the potential in the world, and a ton of his career ahead of him.

The closest I can think of is Beltran... and he was miles away from having the potential (at the time of the trade) that Willis currently has.

As for minor league players being crapshoots... they are... but organizations still have ways of evaluating who is better right now (mostly based on age, position, and minor league #'s), and those are the most desirable. Most teams wouldn't have given us a crappy veteran for Roy Oswalt before he hit AA... and even then, nobody was forecasting a Cy Young career. But, just because some prospects pan out, and some suprise out of nowhere... doesn't mean that teams should just take whatever players come there way, regardless of their past performance, and hope to strike gold.

Thus, the Marlins would still likely desire a prospect that is among Baseball America's top 25 rated (which the Astros have none).

i disagree on where beltran was when we made that trade. he was THE hot name among young position players.

i agree entirely...but you asked me to assess our minor leagues. i haven't seen them play, so i'm not comfortable doing that without regurgitating what someone else said about them. that's not my assessment, that's someone else's.

again...if we throw willy and a prospect or 2..maybe lane in as well..i think that gets it done.

[BenignDMD]

Good article...This offseason IS crucial, lets hope that all goes well. Clemen's needs to figure out what he wants, and SOON. As much as I love the gu, we may just be better off spending the money elsewhere.

[Nick]

i disagree on where beltran was when we made that trade. he was THE hot name among young position players.

Yea... but who else was there at the time?

Willis = 24 year old LEFTY pitcher, a world series winner, and who was the Cy Young award runner up last year.

Beltran (at the time) = 27 year old 5-tool player who'd yet to hit more than 30 HR's in a season, and hadn't been in contention for any awards or won anything substantial in Kansas City.

Granted, Beltran became a beast in the playoffs... and made his acquisiton for just Dotel/Buck look amazing... but based on his value BEFORE he became a monster, I thought the trade was more than fair.

Willis already IS a monster... and I don't think they'd accept a package (Willy, Lane, prospect) that is even less underwhelming than the Dotel/Buck package we got Beltran with.

[crose]

Yea... but who else was there at the time?

Willis = 24 year old LEFTY pitcher, a world series winner, and who was the Cy Young award runner up last year.

Beltran (at the time) = 27 year old 5-tool player who'd yet to hit more than 30 HR's in a season, and hadn't been in contention for any awards or won anything substantial in Kansas City.

Granted, Beltran became a beast in the playoffs... and made his acquisiton for just Dotel/Buck look amazing... but based on his value BEFORE he became a monster, I thought the trade was more than fair.

Willis already IS a monster... and I don't think they'd accept a package (Willy, Lane, prospect) that is even less underwhelming than the Dotel/Buck package we got Beltran with.Beltran was a perennial 100 RBI man who won ROY in 1999.

[Xenon]

i disagree on where beltran was when we made that trade. he was THE hot name among young position players.

i agree entirely...but you asked me to assess our minor leagues. i haven't seen them play, so i'm not comfortable doing that without regurgitating what someone else said about them. that's not my assessment, that's someone else's.

again...if we throw willy and a prospect or 2..maybe lane in as well..i think that gets it done.

I'm going to side with Nick on this one. That's just not enough. Willy is not a good player. His OPS is pathetic and his defense although improved still isn't as good as it should be. He doesn't know how to steal or draw walks. Jason Lane is worthless. What team would want even want Lane at all? I'd say he's closer to being released than traded. Both our stud prospects values went down this season. We have no one to offer that Florida would want.

[MadMax]

Willis already IS a monster... and I don't think they'd accept a package (Willy, Lane, prospect) that is even less underwhelming than the Dotel/Buck package we got Beltran with.

this is the nature of dumping players, nick. this is why it won't be a 5/1. because the alternative is they pay him money in arbitration. teams looking to dump salary usually give up a "monster" and on paper don't seem to be getting much back. time will tell how it turns out later.

[crose]

I'm going to side with Nick on this one. That's just not enough. Willy is not a good player. His OPS is pathetic and his defense although improved still isn't as good as it should be. He doesn't know how to steal or draw walks. Jason Lane is worthless. What team would want even want Lane at all? I'd say he's closer to being released than traded. Both our stud prospects values went down this season. We have no one to offer that Florida would want.
The Marlins were clearly interested in Willy this year, and that was before the hit streak.

Look at all of the young underpaid pitching the marlins already have. Willis is expendable, and the astros have something the Marlins want and need.

We will not have to sell the farm to get this done.

[Ric]

How about a Lidge/Lane/Hirsh package. Also see if they will take Ensberg.
i'm putting a moratorium on mentioning lane and/or ensberg as valid trade assets in regards to any potential deal involving willis. from florida's perspective, they have absolutely ZERO value.

sincerely,
ric's sanity

[MadMax]

The Marlins were clearly interested in Willy this year, and that was before the hit streak.

Look at all of the young underpaid pitching the marlins already have. Willis is expendable, and the astros have something the Marlins want and need.

We will not have to sell the farm to get this done.

this is what i'm saying.

trades like this aren't about matching value for value...because the marlins can't afford to match value for value. you throw out a package and 1000 other variables come into play...including timing.

[Nick]

this is the nature of dumping players, nick. this is why it won't be a 5/1. because the alternative is they pay him money in arbitration. teams looking to dump salary usually give up a "monster" and on paper don't seem to be getting much back. time will tell how it turns out later.

Even if they're "dumping" Willis... they still want quality. They haven't traded him thus far because they KNOW they can get better, as they ended up doing in the Red Sox deal (which also got them Anibal Sanchez... the guy who threw the no-hitter).

[doninator]

i'm putting a moratorium on mentioning lane and/or ensberg as valid trade assets in regards to any potential deal involving willis. from florida's perspective, they have absolutely ZERO value.

sincerely,
ric's sanity

Lane was claimed on waivers this year. That shows that somebody wanted him. Also, Ensberg is still relatively cheap. They may not be salivating over the two, but they certainly are not of ZERO value.

[crose]

Even if they're "dumping" Willis... they still want quality. They haven't traded him thus far because they KNOW they can get better, as they ended up doing in the Red Sox deal (which also got them Anibal Sanchez... the guy who threw the no-hitter).
he didnt throw that no-hitter before the trade.

Also...that was a completely different circumstance, where the marlins were having an advertised fire sale, expecting to get prospects that did not make anything in return.

Now, they have an established rotation of young arms making the same amt. of money. Willis is the sore thumb that sticks out, because he is set to get a payraise through arbitration.

It would be harder to land Sanchez than it would be to land Willis.

[MadMax]

It would be harder to land Sanchez than it would be to land Willis.

honestly,that's right. he has far more value to them than willis does right now...because they can afford him!

[Ric]

Lane was claimed on waivers this year. That shows that somebody wanted him. Also, Ensberg is still relatively cheap. They may not be salivating over the two, but they certainly are not of ZERO value.
i said in relation to the marlins.

but getting lane for absolutely nothing off the waiver wire is not the same as assigning him value in trade discussions. he has none in that circumstance. ensberg is arbitration-eligible and plays 3b; two things the marlins don't want or need. ensberg may have value elsewhere (and my guess is that the astros intend to find out), but a $3-4M 3B is not going to land you dontrelle willis.

[Buck Turgidson]

i said in relation to the marlins.

but getting lane for absolutely nothing off the waiver wire is not the same as assigning him value in trade discussions. he has none in that circumstance.
He's not going to make or break a trade, but to say he has "no value" as a *piece* of a trade package is an exaggeration.

Marlins, for example, could very much be interested in a cheap, RH, 4th OF with some power & a good glove that they could platoon/spot-start in RF with Hermida.

[rocketfan83]

No way the Marlins trade Willis he's their HomeTown Hero ;) :D

[NJRocket]

Its all about keeping the salary down in Florida...period! They aren't going to pay Dontrelle with the stable of young cheap (not to mention very good) pitchers that they have so odds are, he can be had for a guy like Albers Sampson, Willie or even Luke. I'd hate to see Luke go but if we end up signing Carlos Lee and re-signing Huff....our OF is going to be those 2 and Willie.

[Roxfan73]

Its all about keeping the salary down in Florida...period! They aren't going to pay Dontrelle with the stable of young cheap (not to mention very good) pitchers that they have so odds are, he can be had for a guy like Albers Sampson, Willie or even Luke. I'd hate to see Luke go but if we end up signing Carlos Lee and re-signing Huff....our OF is going to be those 2 and Willie.

I agree. Luke's value very well could be at an all time high. He had an amazing run this year, but we musn't overvalue him. If he can bring us the D-Train, then you just do it.

[Ric]

Marlins, for example, could very much be interested in a cheap, RH, 4th OF with some power & a good glove that they could platoon/spot-start in RF with Hermida.
a mediocre (and that's being kind) 30-year old 4th OF who isn't good enough to start on a semi-regualr basis adds zero value to a trade package.

[Buck Turgidson]

a mediocre (and that's being kind) 30-year old 4th OF who isn't good enough to start on a semi-regualr basis adds zero value to a trade package.
Whatever, Ric.

[Burzmali]

Why are you acting like Hanley Ramirez is some ridiculous prospect. He wasn't. He was overvalued for years because he was Boston's only real position prospect.

[DieHard Rocket]

I wouldn't be opposed to trading Scott or Taveras in a deal for Willis, but not both. Scott's value should be extremely high right now ... if you can get a potential Cy Young winner for him you have to do it. It would also help save the farm a bit.

Then hopefully we get a big FA like Lee, re-sign Huff and our outfield is set.

[Buck Turgidson]

Why are you acting like Hanley Ramirez is some ridiculous prospect. He wasn't.
Which verb tense are you going with here?

Look up Ramirez's numbers this season, then look up Carl Crawford's & Jose Reyes's. Virtually identical.

[No Worries]

How about Willis for

Jason Hirsh,

Chris Sampson (or Taylor Buchholz or Fernando Nieve),

Willy Taveras (or Luke Scott),

and one of the following: Jason Lane, Charlton Jimerson, J.R. House, or other position player in development

Didn't include Brad Lidge or Morgan Ensberg due to near future salary demands.

[crose]

How about Willis for

Jason Hirsh,

Chris Sampson (or Taylor Buchholz or Fernando Nieve),

Willy Taveras (or Luke Scott),

and one of the following: Jason Lane, Charlton Jimerson, J.R. House, or other position player in development

Didn't include Brad Lidge or Morgan Ensberg due to near future salary demands.
How about Willis for Willy and Wandy?

dont be surprised if that type of deal gets it done.

[Ric]

Whatever, Ric.
that is certainly insightful analysis. but teams like florida don't stay relatively good dealing for players 3 years past primes they never had.

in their two big deals last winter (beckett and delgado), the fish acquired 7 players. their ages? 25, 23, 22, 21, 21, 21, 21. not a single washed-up, never-was 30-year old among the bunch.

sure, lane could be a throw-in... but how is that *adding* value to the package? it doesn't. especially from the marlins' perspective.

[Nick]

Why are you acting like Hanley Ramirez is some ridiculous prospect. He wasn't. He was overvalued for years because he was Boston's only real position prospect.

He was still ranked #10 in Baseball America's 2005 top 100 prospects rankings.... and his performance this past year looks like that ranking was justified.

He was a stud in the minors... and is now a stud in the majors... I think the Marlins would like another stud in return for a commodity like Willis. Sure, I'd LOVE the Astros to get him for Willy, Albers, and Lane... I just am not going to get my hopes up that other teams won't offer better.

Just for fun, here's the entire top 10 going into 2005... pretty freakin awesome that a lot of these guys could be on their way to all-star careers:
1. Joe Mauer
2. Felix Hernandez
3. Delmon Yong
4. Ian Stewart
5. Joel Guzman
6. Casey Kotchman
7. Scott Kazmir
8. Rickie Weeks
9. Andy Marte
10. Hanley Ramirez

And if you look at the top 25, there are others who have seen major league time: Milledge, Matt Cain, Franceour, Prince Fielder, Jeremy Hermida, Jeff Francis, Nick Swisher, Carlos Quentin, Jose Capellan.

I know judging prospects is an inexact science... but if baseball america was able to forecast success for most of the above named players before most of them saw much big league action in early March 2005... I'm going to buy into their judgement.

[Nick]

How about Willis for Willy and Wandy?

dont be surprised if that type of deal gets it done.

I will be suprised by that... despite you telling me not to.

All of the evidence we've looked at with both recent salary-induced deals by all MLB teams, let alone the recent salary-induced deals made by the Marlins themselves points to the fact that this will not happen.

If you can provide a little more reason why it could, I'll start getting really excited.

[Roxfan73]

Another guy I think we should target is Josh Bard, the Padres catcher. He is a switch hitter who hit .333 with 9 homers and 40 RBI's in 249 AB's. He also went to Texas Tech, so he may like it here. Maybe a package centered around Ensberg can get it done.

[Nick]

Another guy I think we should target is Josh Bard, the Padres catcher. He is a switch hitter who hit .333 with 9 homers and 40 RBI's in 249 AB's. He also went to Texas Tech, so he may like it here. Maybe a package centered around Ensberg can get it done.

The Red Sox were really a bunch of idiots on this one... getting rid of a good young catcher simply because he couldn't catch Wakefield's knuckle ball. Bard will still be playing long after Wakefield's knuckleballing (high ERA) career is over (then again... he could pitch till he's 50).

To top it off, they gave San Diego Clay Meridith as well. Both of those guys are big reasons why the Pads just won their division... all because the Red Sox and Wakefield could not live without Doug Mirabeli.

Combine that with Beckett's poor season, and Hanley's breakout year, and the Red Sox have to wonder what could have been had they taken the Astros' approach (which gets a ton of flack by fans here who want to see the big moves... but they rarely get burned by hanging on to their own, and they discover some diamonds in the process).

[crose]

I will be suprised by that... despite you telling me not to.

All of the evidence we've looked at with both recent salary-induced deals by all MLB teams, let alone the recent salary-induced deals made by the Marlins themselves points to the fact that this will not happen.

If you can provide a little more reason why it could, I'll start getting really excited.
The Marlins are in a completely different situation this offseason, than they were last year.

Last year they were in a slash and burn, dealing the majority of their all stars for highly touted prospects, because they were in more of a position to do so.

They do not have the same leverage this year, because their team is competitive with young cheap talent. If they go highballing for Dontrelle, most teams will tell them to stick it, and they will be stuck with paying Willis about 6m a year.

Granted...some other team might give a better offer than Willy and Wandy, but it wont be much better. No team will be selling the farm to get Willis, because they know he could be had for a more reasonable deal.

[Nick]

Granted...some other team might give a better offer than Willy and Wandy, but it wont be much better. No team will be selling the farm to get Willis, because they know he could be had for a more reasonable deal.

Do you realize how many teams have more talented guys than Willy that could be sitting on their benches?

The enamoration of Willy here is amazing... he will help get the deal done, but cannot be the centerpiece.

[No Worries]

They do not have the same leverage this year, because their team is competitive with young cheap talent. If they go highballing for Dontrelle, most teams will tell them to stick it, and they will be stuck with paying Willis about 6m a year.
You lost me here. Why would the Marlins except less than FMV for Dontrelle?

[Buck Turgidson]

sure, lane could be a throw-in... but how is that *adding* value to the package? it doesn't. especially from the marlins' perspective.
If you want to sit here and argue the difference between "a little" and "zero" in regards to Jason Lane perceived value around MLB, I'm not your monkey.

[crose]

Do you realize how many teams have more talented guys than Willy that could be sitting on their benches?

The enamoration of Willy here is amazing... he will help get the deal done, but cannot be the centerpiece.
The enamoration with Willy is not exclusive to this forum.

Willy was and is on the marlins radar.
Willy is cheap.
Willy has comparable Leadoff numbers to hanley ramirez, and apparently ramirez is the second coming of(insert HOF caliber SS).
The marlins are in need of a CF.
Dontrelle is very expendable to the Marlins.

Why is it so hard to imagine Willy as the centerpiece of this deal?

[crose]

You lost me here. Why would the Marlins except less than FMV for Dontrelle?
what is FMV for Dontrelle?

[Master Baiter]

The enamoration with Willy is not exclusive to this forum.

Willy was and is on the marlins radar.
Willy is cheap.
Willy has comparable Leadoff numbers to hanley ramirez, and apparently ramirez is the second coming of(insert HOF caliber SS).
The marlins are in need of a CF.
Dontrelle is very expendable to the Marlins.

Why is it so hard to imagine Willy as the centerpiece of this deal?
Because Willis is a Cy Young candidate and Willy is a mediocre outfielder.

[Buck Turgidson]

Willy has comparable Leadoff numbers to hanley ramirez
Not even close.

[No Worries]

what is FMV for Dontrelle?
FMV is Free Market Value.

Florida should get equal talent/value in return. They want less salary so that means they will settle for top prospects, 2 or 3 players with Willis's potential.

Jason Hirsh AND Troy Patton might be the starting bid. If we do get Willis, I suspect the consensus will be that we gave away far too much prospect talent to get him.

[crose]

Not even close.
Ramirez has better numbers, but from a leadoff perspective Willy is comparable.

OBP
willy - .333
hanram- .353

SB
willy - 33 of 42
hanram- 51 of 66

hanram strikes out more but has more Pop.

Comparable LEADOFF numbers.

[Master Baiter]

FMV is Free Market Value.
FMV is Fair Market Value

[NJRocket]

Willy has comparable Leadoff numbers to hanley ramirez,

Willie Mays maybe....certainly you arent referring to Willie taveras

[crose]

Willie Mays maybe....certainly you arent referring to Willie taveras
why dont you look at their numbers, and disregard HRs and RBIs.

what do you want out of your leadoff man?

[bobrek]

Ramirez has better numbers, but from a leadoff perspective Willy is comparable.

OBP
willy - .333
hanram- .353

SB
willy - 33 of 42
hanram- 51 of 66

hanram strikes out more but has more Pop.

Comparable LEADOFF numbers.

If you are ONLY looking at OBP then you are right. Ramirez gets on base 2 times more every 100 at bats than Taveras so that's pretty comparable.

But when you look at the total picture, things are not even close:

Runs - 119 to 82
Doubles - 46 to 19 :eek:
Triples - 11 to 5
HRs - 17 to 1
RsBi - 59 to 30

[Ric]

If you want to sit here and argue the difference between "a little" and "zero" in regards to Jason Lane perceived value around MLB, I'm not your monkey.
so why'd you bring it up?

Willy has comparable Leadoff numbers to hanley ramirez, and apparently ramirez is the second coming of (insert HOF caliber SS).
uhmmm....... ramirez last year posted an OPS of .842 as a lead-off hitter; taveras .653. those numbers are not, in any way, shape or form "comparable."

also, taveras has 4 hr's and 68 sb's in his *career* (two full ML seasons); last year, AS A ROOKIE, ramirez hit 13 and stole 41.

they may need a CF; they may indeed want willy taveras. but, believe me, he does not have comparable #s to hanley ramirez.

[bobrek]

why dont you look at their numbers, and disregard HRs and RBIs.

what do you want out of your leadoff man?

I want my leadoff man to get into scoring position and to score runs.

[Ric]

last year, AS A ROOKIE, ramirez hit 13 and stole 41.
(note: leading off)

[SWTsig]

To have a realistic shot of acquiring Willis, the Astros would have to give up the following:
Hunter Pence
Troy Patton
Matt Albers
Josh Anderson
Willy Taveras

And even then... this vast collection of the "best of the best" the Astros have may not get it done.

Also, I trust Lopez articles even less than I trust Justice articles... I don't really think Lopez spends much time talking to anybody for that long (especially not long enough to find out the "inner workings" of the organization).

gonna go ahead and call bullsh!t on that, Nick. you're out of your mind if you think willis commands that much.

[crose]

I want my leadoff man to get into scoring position and to score runs.
agreed....and Willy does that comparatively to hanram.

[Buck Turgidson]

I want my leadoff man to get into scoring position and to score runs.
Bingo. He puts himself in scoring position much more often than Willy via the XBH & SB; while the extraneous outs - GIDP & CS - were pretty even (7 & 15 for Hanley; 6 & 9 for Willy).

Hanley did have 100+ more plate appearances than Willy, however.

[NJRocket]

agreed....and Willy does that comparatively to hanram.

who would you rather have?

[crose]

Bingo. He puts himself in scoring position much more often than Willy via the XBH & SB; while the extraneous outs - GIDP & CS - were pretty even (7 & 15 for Hanley; 6 & 9 for Willy).

Hanley did have 100+ more plate appearances than Willy, however.
exactly
and Willy was shuffled in the line up more than hanram, so it is not that ridiculous to compare their numbers as a leadoff hitter.

[crose]

who would you rather have?
This is not a trade discussion involving hanram and Willy.

I would rather see the Astros make a respectable FAIR MARKET deal for Dontrelle.

[bobrek]

exactly
and Willy was shuffled in the line up more than hanram, so it is not that ridiculous to compare their numbers as a leadoff hitter.

And when actually leading off an inning, Ramirez numbers go markedly up compared to Taveras:

OBP - .371 to .333
SLG (putting yourself into scoring position) - .578 to .313
OBP - .949 to .646

[crose]

And when actually leading off an inning, Ramirez numbers go markedly up compared to Taveras:

OBP - .371 to .333
SLG (putting yourself into scoring position) - .578 to .313
OBP - .949 to .646
ramirez is good...I got it.

In terms of dealing with the Marlins, I think Willy T can be the centerpiece in dealing for Dontrelle.

We will have to wait and see.

[DieHard Rocket]

Let's see if we can find a middle ground between Nick's overpaying offer and crose's underpaying offer ... and I do mean underpaying. Taveras and Wandy for Willis? Seriously? Wandy is basically a left-handed specialist out of the bullpen at this point, and Taveras still has a lot of learning to do. He has to learn to make contact nearly 100% of the time, and get a few more extra base hits before he's anywhere close to the anchor of this deal.

I'm thinking something like:
Taveras
Hirsch
Patton or Albers
Young, average prospect

[Raven Lunatic]

While I doubt we pry him away from the Yankees, I would be all about signing Jorge Posada.

[crose]

Let's see if we can find a middle ground between Nick's overpaying offer and crose's underpaying offer ... and I do mean underpaying. Taveras and Wandy for Willis? Seriously? Wandy is basically a left-handed specialist out of the bullpen at this point, and Taveras still has a lot of learning to do. He has to learn to make contact nearly 100% of the time, and get a few more extra base hits before he's anywhere close to the anchor of this deal.

I'm thinking something like:
Taveras
Hirsch
Patton or Albers
Young, average prospect
Wandy is a stretch...maybe wishful thinking. But to give up a package deal filled with prospects, just doesnt seem logical. Maybe if he were available last year, but not this year.

[DieHard Rocket]

Wandy is a stretch...maybe wishful thinking. But to give up a package deal filled with prospects, just doesnt seem logical. Maybe if he were available last year, but not this year.

If we get Pettitte back, possibly Roger, and have a legitimate shot at signing Lee ... I would easily pull the trigger on a deal with a package of prospects. There is no sense taking a chance on these young guys when the window of opportunity is there, and on top of that Willis is young himself.

[crose]

If we get Pettitte back, possibly Roger, and have a legitimate shot at signing Lee ... I would easily pull the trigger on a deal with a package of prospects. There is no sense taking a chance on these young guys when the window of opportunity is there, and on top of that Willis is young himself.
I agree with dealing for Willis, but not at the sake of overpaying with young talent.

His value has dropped between last year and this year.

[Nick]

His value has dropped between last year and this year.

The guy is 24 years old... a lefty PITCHER... put up an ERA of 3.something... was the Cy Young award runner up last year... is 24 years old... IS A LEFTY.... is a good batter.... has oodles of marketing potential.

I know the Marlins are looking to move him... but Willis is about as great of a commodity as there is in baseball right now. He's an amazing stock that still probably hasn't hit its prime yet.

This isn't like people trading for Brad Lidge or Morgan Ensberg, who had more value last year... the Marlins would be fools to just desperately unload him without thinking.

[Aceshigh7]

There's no need to set a deadline for Clemens. Plan as if he is not going to be here. (But still go all out to try to re-sign him.)

Clemens told the Astros last year to do just this. Their big splash? Sign Preston Wilson to a bargain contract. How underwhelming. I like Wilson, but come on. You have got to do something to upgrade the offense more than that. Even after the Wilson signing Clemens said in an interview that they needed to do more. Did they? (Nope)

Clemens isn't "holding the Astros back" from doing anything. Just go ahead and do it. The real problem is that the Astros don't want to pay any substantial money for other free agents + Clemens.

[kaleidosky]

can we stop calling hanram? makes me think you're misspelling hanley, even though i know what you're saying.. =P

[Buck Turgidson]

The real problem is that the Astros don't want to pay any substantial money for other free agents + Clemens.
Right. They were willing to pay Nomar & Tejada last offseason, Tejada & Carlos Lee during the season & beyond. The signed Roy Oswalt to a gigantic contract. They gave Clemens the largest contract ever for a pitcher. Berkman's not complaining about money either. They traded for Huff and will likely re-sign him. What part of $105M payroll is so confusing? The want to sign a significant FA bat this offseason, and the payroll sans-Clemens will be in the $90-95M range.

Please don't just squawk "cheap cheap cheap" like a tiny little bird. Try to be smarter. Remember, you're the same guy that told us the Astros ruined *any* chance of Clemens' coming back in '06.

[Burzmali]

Right. They were willing to pay Nomar & Tejada last offseason, Tejada & Carlos Lee during the season & beyond. The signed Roy Oswalt to a gigantic contract. They gave Clemens the largest contract ever for a pitcher. Berkman's not complaining about money either. They traded for Huff and will likely re-sign him. What part of $105M payroll is so confusing? The want to sign a significant FA bat this offseason, and the payroll sans-Clemens will be in the $90-95M range.

Please don't just squawk "cheap cheap cheap" like a tiny little bird. Try to be smarter. Remember, you're the same guy that told us the Astros ruined *any* chance of Clemens' coming back in '06.

Haha... owned.

He's right, our ownership is fantastic.

1. Pettitte
2. Lee
3. Huff

If we get those, Roger will fall in to place probably and we're in good shape.

[crose]

The guy is 24 years old... a lefty PITCHER... put up an ERA of 3.something... was the Cy Young award runner up last year... is 24 years old... IS A LEFTY.... is a good batter.... has oodles of marketing potential.

I know the Marlins are looking to move him... but Willis is about as great of a commodity as there is in baseball right now. He's an amazing stock that still probably hasn't hit its prime yet.

This isn't like people trading for Brad Lidge or Morgan Ensberg, who had more value last year... the Marlins would be fools to just desperately unload him without thinking.
that doesnt change the fact that his value has dropped between the offseason of '05 and now.

He followed a Cy-Young campaign with a Ho-Hum campaign, and he is set to get a payraise. Value down.

[Burzmali]

Which verb tense are you going with here?

Look up Ramirez's numbers this season, then look up Carl Crawford's & Jose Reyes's. Virtually identical.

The one I used is the one I intended to use.

I didn't know he was ranked top 10 by BA, I always thought he was inflated by being a Red Sock prospect.

[Buck Turgidson]

The one I used is the one I intended to use.
Except you used 2 ("is" vs. "was"); wasn't sure if you meant he isn't a prospect now, or he wasn't last season. There wasn't anything too impressive about his '05 full season in AA.

[Ric]

that doesnt change the fact that his value has dropped between the offseason of '05 and now.
no, it hasn't. his numbers dropped, slightly, but he's still an elite, top of the rotation ace who will command more than wily t., wandy and flotsam.

[Ric]

Please don't just squawk "cheap cheap cheap" like a tiny little bird.
it's amazing people still do.

[Nick]

He followed a Cy-Young campaign with a Ho-Hum campaign, and he is set to get a payraise. Value down.

223.1 IP, 12-12, 3.87 ERA, 4 complete games, 160 SO

If we're calling this a ho-hum year simply because he dropped off from his Cy Young candidacy, it just simply adds to the fact of how awesome a 24 year old talent like Dontrelle Willis is.

[Aceshigh7]

Right. They were willing to pay Nomar & Tejada last offseason, Tejada & Carlos Lee during the season & beyond.

I don't know what part of the phrase "free agent" you don't understand. If you aquired any of those players by trade like they were trying to do you're going to be giving up major league talent, making major league salary.

The signed Roy Oswalt to a gigantic contract. Berkman's not complaining about money either.

Roy and Berkman are excluded. The Astros were forced to give them big, long term contracts. The fans would never forgive them if they let them go.

They traded for Huff and will likely re-sign him.

Huff was a half season rental. And if they re-sign him (which they may not do), he won't be making big money.

Try to be smarter. Remember, you're the same guy that told us the Astros ruined *any* chance of Clemens' coming back in '06.

No. What I said was that the Astros chose to gamble on him not signing with someone else and coming back to the Astros for half a season. They got lucky. It doesn't mean making that gamble was the right decision.

Actually, even though the Astros got lucky and were able to re-sign Clemens it doesn't mean they won. You have to believe Roger would have added at least a couple more wins to this team had he been here from the beginning of the season. That would have been enough to get us to the playoffs as it turned out.

Please don't just squawk "cheap cheap cheap" like a tiny little bird. Try to be smarter.

And please do some thinking and don't blindly accept our team's mistakes just because they are the Astros. I am a true fan, have been a season ticket holder for the past three years and religiously follow this team even when I can't go to the games. But because I love this team doesn't mean I can't be critical of them when the front office screws up. I give them credit when they make good moves, and I call them out when they make bad moves.

[JunkyardDwg]

No. What I said was that the Astros chose to gamble on him not signing with someone else and coming back to the Astros for half a season. They got lucky. It doesn't mean making that gamble was the right decision.

The whole world seems to understand now that Clemens was either going to play for Houston or not play at all. Don't buy into that east coast media spin. But this debate has been worn thin.

[Aceshigh7]

The whole world seems to understand now that Clemens was either going to play for Houston or not play at all. Don't buy into that east coast media spin. But this debate has been worn thin.

Once again. Where was the downside in offering him arbitration? All it would have done would have allowed Clemens and the Astros to talk for a couple of more months if he came to the decision he wanted to play.

Why didn't the Astros offer him arbitration? Because they didn't want to risk being forced to go before an arbiter and pay market value for him for an entire season.

No, much better to gamble and if you get lucky and still have the chance to sign him later, only have to pay for half a season of Clemens.

Well, for the price of another half season, we could have been in the playoffs right now. Would have been nice.

[crose]

223.1 IP, 12-12, 3.87 ERA, 4 complete games, 160 SO

If we're calling this a ho-hum year simply because he dropped off from his Cy Young candidacy, it just simply adds to the fact of how awesome a 24 year old talent like Dontrelle Willis is.
I am for obtaining Willis

[Nick]

Well, for the price of another half season, we could have been in the playoffs right now. Would have been nice.

Last I checked, it was Clemens decision to NOT want to pitch till he did... I'm pretty sure the Astros would have both offered him arbitration or signed him before the start of the season had Clemens made a decision.

And if you're going to say that "Roger pitches from the start of the season if the Astros offer arbitration..." then I will say that Clemens, clearly not sure if he'd want to pitch but is forced to suit up because he signed the contract, would have been a very vulnerable pitcher.

Finally, how do you even know that his body holds up? Roger didn't even know that. Seems like you know a lot of stuff that Roger had no clue of before the season (like whether or not he even wanted to play).

[Aceshigh7]

Last I checked, it was Clemens decision to NOT want to pitch till he did... I'm pretty sure the Astros would have both offered him arbitration or signed him before the start of the season had Clemens made a decision.

And if you're going to say that "Roger pitches from the start of the season if the Astros offer arbitration..." then I will say that Clemens, clearly not sure if he'd want to pitch but is forced to suit up because he signed the contract, would have been a very vulnerable pitcher.

Finally, how do you even know that his body holds up? Roger didn't even know that. Seems like you know a lot of stuff that Roger had no clue of before the season (like whether or not he even wanted to play).

Because of baseball's rules, the Astro's could not negotiate with him until summer. How do you know he didn't come to the realization that he wanted to pitch in January or February, but couldn't sign with the Astros then because they were not allowed?

Offering him arbitration would have given him more time to make up his mind in the wintertime, without being hamstrung by baseball's rules. More options is a good thing Nick. Stop trying to make excuses for their gamble. When Roger Clemens says he needs time to make a decision, you give the man the time he needs. Unless of course you're afraid of having to pay 23 or 24 million for a full season. But hey, if you can gamble and get him to come back for half a season, you might only end up paying half of that, and you can present it to the fans as a success too! What a win-win for the front office! Too bad it might have cost us the playoffs.

[bobrek]

Because of baseball's rules, the Astro's could not negotiate with him until summer. How do you know he didn't come to the realization that he wanted to pitch in January or February, but couldn't sign with the Astros then because they were not allowed?

Offering him arbitration would have given him more time to make up his mind in the wintertime, without being hamstrung by baseball's rules. More options is a good thing Nick.

If that was the case, why wasn't he ready to pitch until June 22? Theoretically, if he was itching to go he could have signed and pitched on May 1st although that would be a bit unrealistic. He certainly could have been ready to pitch well before June 22 if he was chomping at the bit to get going.

[Major]

Because of baseball's rules, the Astro's could not negotiate with him until summer. How do you know he didn't come to the realization that he wanted to pitch in January or February, but couldn't sign with the Astros then because they were not allowed?


This is not true. He could have signed May 1. He did sign until mid-June.

Unless, of course, you're calling him a liar when he repeatedly said from November into late May that he was unsure if he wanted to pitch again.

[Joshfast]

Because of baseball's rules, the Astro's could not negotiate with him until summer. How do you know he didn't come to the realization that he wanted to pitch in January or February, but couldn't sign with the Astros then because they were not allowed?



How do you know that Clemens didn't have a wink wink* agreement to resign with the Astros at mid-season because he knew he couldn't hold up over a full season? Clemens talking to other teams in that period was just Clemens being Clemens and getting attention.

[Joe Joe]

I don't see the point in giving Clemens a deadline. Make whatever deals you want assuming he's done. If he comes back, treat it like a midseason trade. The Astros may have to pull a Marlins and trade a position player for prospects to get him into the budget.

[Major]

I don't see the point in giving Clemens a deadline. Make whatever deals you want assuming he's done. If he comes back, treat it like a midseason trade. The Astros may have to pull a Marlins and trade a position player for prospects to get him into the budget.

You can't just leave $10-$15MM in salary up in the air. Contrary to what people want to believe, Clemens doesn't generate that much revenue for the team. An average of 3000 extra fans in about 7-10 of their 162 games doesn't generate much money. You can have a budget range, but $15MM isn't easy to clear, nor should the team do so at the last second just to add a Clemens. You have to plan one way or another.

[Joe Joe]

You can't just leave $10-$15MM in salary up in the air. Contrary to what people want to believe, Clemens doesn't generate that much revenue for the team. An average of 3000 extra fans in about 7-10 of their 162 games doesn't generate much money. You can have a budget range, but $15MM isn't easy to clear, nor should the team do so at the last second just to add a Clemens. You have to plan one way or another.

I don't care about the revenue he would generate. I wouldn't take that into account because I think winning will generate much more than having the best pitcher in this era on the mound a few times. I do think having Clemens on the team creates a buzz that generates revenue outside his games, but not as much as winning.

If Clemens is interested early, you sign him. If not, don't sign him and build team as best as you can.

If he wants to play midway through the season, you trade away players to lower your budget to sign him. If you can't do this, you don't sign Clemens midway through the season.

Giving Clemens an ultimatum is not an advisable course of action. Saving money for him in case he decides to play is not feasible because 15 million can do wonders for a team. If/when Clemens decides to play is when to plan on trying to sign him. If there is no money at that time, you don't sign him.

I enjoyed watching Clemens pitch this season, but down the stretch....I wanted to watch all the games.

[tigermission1]

Getting D-Train would be a dream come true, I love that kid. It would be as significant an acquisition as the Rockets getting McGrady.

It doesn't matter what you have to give up as long as it's not your franchise players Roy Oswalt and Lance Berkman or some 'can't miss' prospect. Nothing should stand in the way of the Astros getting two aces in D-Train and Roy-O. Pitching is THE key factor in baseball, everyone knows that.

The possibility of having Roy-O, D-Train, Clemens, and Pettite in the rotation is enough to give me many, many sleepless nights.

[Kam]

i didn't read all six pages, but i know somebody has to have mentioned it. If not:

"this sure aint gonna happen. last I checked. DWills was black."




Serious part of my post.

Willis would sure help the offense out.

And he's not a bad pitcher.

[Angle02]

If Clemens is interested early, you sign him. If not, don't sign him and build team as best as you can.

If he wants to play midway through the season, you trade away players to lower your budget to sign him. If you can't do this, you don't sign Clemens midway through the season.


Dont mess with team chemistry. Dont trade away players just because you want to sign a pitcher midway through the season. Drayton can just man up and up the payroll to bring him in at that point.

[Rocket River]

i doubt the validity of the willis conjecture. two years of clandestine maneuvering and the usual big dogs (yanks, mets and red sox) haven't picked up the scent? highly unlikely.

if there've been any discussions, they probably went like this:
(on the phone)
tim p: hey, flordia gm guy - is dontrelle willis available? no? ok, thanks.

(six months later)
tim p: hey, flordia gm guy - it's tim p, again - still no? ok. thanks.

(three months later)
tim p: yeah, hi, it's - really? so hell has NOT frozen over? ok, got it. check.

(one month later)
tim p: h - ok. sorry.

(one week later)
tim p: hi, i was - just... the police? really?

(one day later)
tim p: hey, i got your invitation to join you in reality - thought it was REALLY funny... and just so we're clear: where do we stand on willis? ok, sir - please refrain from that kind of language; besides, i doubt that's humanly possible. lord knows i've tried.

(one hour later)
tim p: hey, was in the shower; thought i might've heard the phone ring... no? you there? hello? ok, call me - morgan ensberg's not going to trade himself to florida for dontrelle willis!!!!

it's (likely) a typically sloppy article name-dropping a guy the team has ZERO chance of acquiring to get the fans riled up.


"HELLO MR PROSPECT . . . .would Tuesday at 9 or Wednesday at noon be good for you?"

Rocket RIver

[msn]

The possibility of having Roy-O, D-Train, Clemens, and Pettite in the rotation is enough to give me many, many sleepless nights.
...and your insomnia will be complete when the Astros score an average of 1.174 runs per start for each of their four aces, netting them 37 no-decisions and 21 1-0 or 2-1 losses between them. :D

[Aceshigh7]

This is not true. He could have signed May 1. He did sign until mid-June.

Unless, of course, you're calling him a liar when he repeatedly said from November into late May that he was unsure if he wanted to pitch again.

Umm. He wasn't allowed to have any negotiations with the Astros prior to May 1st. I suppose you think that a contract like his can be hammered out in a day or so?

Also, he didn't re-sign in mid-June. He re-signed in May. His first game back was on June 22nd.

[MadMax]

I suppose you think that a contract like his can be hammered out in a day or so?

.

actually, yeah i do. the contracts are all pretty standard...they are drawn up under the collective bargaining agreement. once a team and a player agree it doesn't take long to put it in writing.

[Master Baiter]

actually, yeah i do. the contracts are all pretty standard...they are drawn up under the collective bargaining agreement. once a team and a player agree it doesn't take long to put it in writing.
Aren't you sharp as a tack, you some type of lawyer or somethin'? Or somebody important or somethin'?

[MadMax]

Aren't you sharp as a tack, you some type of lawyer or somethin'? Or somebody important or somethin'?

i'm a shepherd.

[Groogrux]

i'm a shepherd.

And you stayed at a Holiday Inn Express last night.

[MadMax]

And you stayed at a Holiday Inn Express last night.

and i'm a card-carrying member of the Magicians' Alliance.

[Nick]

and i'm a card-carrying member of the Magicians' Alliance.

Its not my trick, michael..... its my ILLU-sion!

[MadMax]

Its not my trick, michael..... its my ILLU-sion!

THE FINAL COUNTDOWN!!!!!!!!!

[imoffg33]

huff is a career .300 avg 30hr 100rbi hitter. we need to bring him back

[No Worries]

huff is a career .300 avg 30hr 100rbi hitter. we need to bring him back
Dude has peeked. Don't need to be paying for his glory years and not get the glory.

[Ric]

Dude has peeked. Don't need to be paying for his glory years and not get the glory.
as an astro, he was on pace to hit 35 hrs and drive in 102 runs over a full season.

[SWTsig]

THE FINAL COUNTDOWN!!!!!!!!!

*cue magician music

[MadMax]

huff is a career .300 avg 30hr 100rbi hitter. we need to bring him back

his career average is .285. he's only hit over .300 twice in his career.

he's only hit 30 HR once in his career.

he's only knocked in 100 rbi or more twice in his career.

i really like huff and i want him playing 3B for us next season on a regular basis. but let's no overemphasize the point! :D

[MadMax]

*cue magician music

when he's running around the stage just throwing cards around!! :D

seriously, i'll start thinking of that sometimes when I'm around the office or driving in my car and i just start laughing. that's great stuff!

[msn]

No. What I said was that the Astros chose to gamble on him not signing with someone else and coming back to the Astros for half a season. They got lucky. It doesn't mean making that gamble was the right decision.
I can't *believe* you're still on your high horse about this!! It's downright hysterical!!!

Oh, and yes, you *did* say there was no way the Astros were getting Clemens back. You moaned and whined and pitched fits for four months about it. Then, when it looked like the Astros (and the majority of *us*, tyvm) were right the whole time, you began to hedge your bet by saying, "well, they might get lucky". I believe one of the things you said was, "As a season ticket holder, it makes me so happy to know the Astros raised the prices that I'm paying so that I can have the pleasure of watching Ezekiel Astacio pitch instead of Roger Clemens."

I believe the little Internet gamer geeks would be piling on at a time like this and screaming, "PWNED!!!!"

[Buck Turgidson]

THE FINAL COUNTDOWN!!!!!!!!!
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[Buck Turgidson]

You can't just leave $10-$15MM in salary up in the air.
Clemens is a "special case" in regards to the budget, says Drayton. Why would they treat it any differently this offseason?

[Ric]

I don't know what part of the phrase "free agent" you don't understand. If you aquired any of those players by trade like they were trying to do you're going to be giving up major league talent, making major league salary.
nomar was a free agent signing. tejada made $11.8M last year; lee $8.5M. what players were the astros going to trade to offset, or even reduce, their payroll?

Roy and Berkman are excluded. The Astros were forced to give them big, long term contracts. The fans would never forgive them if they let them go.
i love this; "forced." why weren't they "forced" to give big contracts to kile, johnson, hampton, everett, kent, beltran and the other big-name players that have left houston and, i'm sure, form the basis of your "mclane's cheap" routine?

the only reason for excluding them is because is torpedoes you being able to cry like a baby about a long-dead topic of conversation.

bagwell, pettitte, clemens, berkman and oswalt are ALL paid FMV. nothing cheap about any of them.

Huff was a half season rental. And if they re-sign him (which they may not do), he won't be making big money.
so now you're going to bitch about them resigning a solid stick simply because they're not going to overpay him? if huff is willing ot sign here for less... that's somehow a mark against mclane? unreal.

Actually, even though the Astros got lucky and were able to re-sign Clemens it doesn't mean they won. You have to believe Roger would have added at least a couple more wins to this team had he been here from the beginning of the season. That would have been enough to get us to the playoffs as it turned out.
i thought they should have offered him arbitration, but he had a chance to sign with ANYBODY and didn't until may/june. he could have given the yankees or red sox or rangers a full year but HE chose not to.

the astros had NOTHING to do with that. if he had told them he was definitely coming back, they would have offered him arbitration; they'd done it the year before.

And please do some thinking and don't blindly accept our team's mistakes just because they are the Astros.
incredible. do you realize the two previous years were the two best in franchise history? and this, for its warts, wasn't too shabby?

are those the mistakes you're referencing?

there are A LOT of things you can bitch about with this team. but drayton being cheap is sooooooooo 1997. he's the best owner this franchise has ever had and the best owner this city has ever had. bar none. he's not above reproach, but he's earned at least the benefit of the doubt. no houston franchise has ever had a 10-year run like this one the astros are currently enjoying, and it doesn't seem to have an end in sight just yet.

it's included memories that'll last a lot of us a lifetime and we've been privy to some of the single greatest baseball players IN HISTORY. biggio, bagwell and clemens are LEGENDS. berkman and oswalt may soon be joining them - they are, right now, two or three of the BEST PLAYERS IN ALL OF BASEBALL. johnson, kent and possibly beltran will all be HOF-worthy and we saw some of their best moments as professionals. pettitte is one of the most revered yankees of this generation..... i mean, good god, dude - ENJOY YOURSELF! this is fun; there are fans of 25 teams in baseball that would trade places with you so fast they'd have to invent a new way to measure it.

[gunn]

The players that I would target this offseason via trade would be in order:

1. Dontrelle Willis
2. Carl Crawford
.
3. Vernon Wells
..
...
....and a distant

4. Miguel Tejada

To get Dontrelle it will cost Willy T and Jason Hirsh plus. From there with an obvious hole in center you look to fill the void by getting Carl Crawford, who in my opinion, would be the hardest to get of the bunch due to his oogles of talent and cheap locked-in contract. But I think a deal including Troy Patton, Brad Lidge, and Luke Scott or Hunter Pence would be a solid start to getting such a deal done. Vernon Wells and Tejada would be my back-up (but still great) options for upgrading the offense. I'd be willing to part with the entire farm for the top two.

After securing deals for Willis and Crawford, I'd look to re-sign Andy Pettitte to a two year deal with an option in year two. The return of Pettitte would solidify the 3 spot in the rotation and if Clemens decides to return mid-season Andy would likely be one of, if not the best number 4 in the league. After Pettitte, I would look to bring Woody Williams home on a 1 year deal to secure the rotation.

April Rotation:

Oswalt
Willis
Pettitte
Williams
Buchholz/Wandy

Possible June Rotation?:

Oswalt
Willis
Clemens
Pettitte
Williams

With no corner outfielders the next free agent aquisition is clearly Carlos Lee. If both Scott and Pence are gone via trade or Ensberg is moved for a catcher then the re-signing Huff would be a priority.

Line-up:

1. Crawford - CF
2. Ensberg - 3B
3. Lee - RF
4. Berkman - 1B
5. Huff - RF
6. Biggio/Burke - 2B
7. Everett - SS
8. Ausmus - C
9. (Willis) - P

There's you blueprint Drayton. Your welcome. :p

[Buck Turgidson]

nomar was a free agent signing. tejada made $11.8M last year; lee $8.5M. what players were the astros going to trade to offset, or even reduce, their payroll?
wrt Tejada...it's hard to construe trading ~3 guys (AE/Lane/Qualls/Lidge/Moberg/prospects) all under club control and all on 1-year deals, for a guy with $50+ million in guaranteed long-term money owed as a salary wash, even if the salaries for one season come close to offsetting.

i mean, good god, dude - ENJOY YOURSELF! this is fun; there are fans of 25 teams in baseball that would trade places with you so fast they'd have to invent a new way to measure it.
No kidding. I don't understand the bitching. Never have, for the most part.

[msn]

no houston franchise has ever had a 10-year run like this one the astros are currently enjoying, and it doesn't seem to have an end in sight just yet.... it's included memories that'll last a lot of us a lifetime and we've been privy to some of the single greatest baseball players IN HISTORY. biggio, bagwell and clemens are LEGENDS. berkman and oswalt may soon be joining them - they are, right now, two or three of the BEST PLAYERS IN ALL OF BASEBALL. johnson, kent and possibly beltran will all be HOF-worthy and we saw some of their best moments as professionals. pettitte is one of the most revered yankees of this generation..... i mean, good god, dude - ENJOY YOURSELF! this is fun; there are fans of 25 teams in baseball that would trade places with you so fast they'd have to invent a new way to measure it.

Well said; I was about to quote the same excerpt you quoted and say something very similar. Bitching is so very, very stupid.

[Astroholic]

I'm sorry, I don't have the time this minute to read back through all the posts, so I'll just ask. What's the update with Clemens and committing? Do we have a deadline for him yet?

[MadMax]

I'm sorry, I don't have the time this minute to read back through all the posts, so I'll just ask. What's the update with Clemens and committing? Do we have a deadline for him yet?

no. i can't imagine anything like that will be communicated before the end of the world series.

4 months till pitchers and catchers report.

[Astroholic]

Ok, thanks for the update.

[Uprising]

Okay, I read through every post for 4 pages. The article was a good read, thanks for posting.

This is starting to get me excited. So many good names out there this offseason. And if we can manage do bring Willis to houston! :eek: :)

This is the first thread about the stros I've gotten in since our season ended. I just couldn't think about it. We ...were....soooo...close.

Anyways, I completely agree with you guys and the article. A deadline must be set in stone for Clemens. No more controling our franchise.

[Astroholic]

Good post. I don't think Clemens will decide before a set deadline, nor make a decision at all for Houston. And to deal with the off-season; The Astros need to make some moves. We rarely go sign big names, and this time..we need it. D-Train, Tejada, A-Rod..Go get one of them, bottom line. Want a World Series, need a strong pitcher, and a strong run producer.

Houston Astros Division Champs 08

[msn]

We rarely go sign big names
Oh good lord.

Clemens, Pettitte, and Kent all say hi. And that's just off the top of my head. It didn't pan out, but Wilson was a huge stick until he disappeared in Houston.

Not that big signings aren't needed at this point; I agree with you about that.

[rocks_fan]

Shoot, Drabek and Swindell (at least Drabek) were considered fairly big signings in Drayton's first year as owner.

I love how Drayton has acquired this big reputation as unwilling to spend any money depsite years of evidence to the contrary and a top 5 payroll this year.

[Astroholic]

Oh good lord.

Clemens, Pettitte, and Kent all say hi. And that's just off the top of my head. It didn't pan out, but Wilson was a huge stick until he disappeared in Houston.

Not that big signings aren't needed at this point; I agree with you about that.

I'm not talking about 40 year old men ending they're career, I'm talking about young talent similar to Beltran who have many years ahead of them. We've done a great job to lock Berkman and Oswalt, but it's time to bring in another strong player.

[msn]

I'm not talking about 40 year old men ending they're career, I'm talking about young talent similar to Beltran who have many years ahead of them. We've done a great job to lock Berkman and Oswalt, but it's time to bring in another strong player.
You're right; I forgot about Pettitte and Kent being 40 and at the end of their careers! How foolish of me! I wonder what Jeff Kent is doing this year without the thrill of October baseball?

[yaopao]

I REALLY don't think the Marlins have much of a need for a 30 year-old backup OF who spent time in the minors this year and barely hit over .200. The idea that some people here think Lane has any value to the Marlins is a joke.

[redgoose]

I seriously doubt Clemens will set a decision date right now. This would imply he would entertain the thought of putting up Cy Young numbers exept instead of 20 wins he would get 20 no decisions. All the while Drayton sells out every game he starts even if we're in last place. Pick up Tejada/Arod via trade and sign Soriano by promising him 2nd base after Biggio hits #3000, resign Pettite, and maybe he'll comeback for 10 million.

As for Willis, there's about 30 other teams that wouldn't mind putting him on their roster. That includes a guaranteed bidding war with Boston and New York.

[yaopao]

I seriously doubt Clemens will set a decision date right now. This would imply he would entertain the thought of putting up Cy Young numbers exept instead of 20 wins he would get 20 no decisions. All the while Drayton sells out every game he starts even if we're in last place. Pick up Tejada/Arod via trade and sign Soriano by promising him 2nd base after Biggio hits #3000, resign Pettite, and maybe he'll comeback for 10 million.

As for Willis, there's about 30 other teams that wouldn't mind putting him on their roster. That includes a guaranteed bidding war with Boston and New York.

NY and Boston can't get into a bidding war if it involves a trade. There isn't enough young, low-cost talent on either team to send the Marlins way. Perhaps the Yanks could send Wang, Cano, Cabrera, cash/whatever for Willis.

The BoSox just don't have any trade ammo.

I'm afraid Soriano would cost way too much to bring in. As a 2B with his power and speed, he should cost a pretty penny despite his inadequacies in the field.

[redgoose]

NY and Boston can't get into a bidding war if it involves a trade. There isn't enough young, low-cost talent on either team to send the Marlins way. Perhaps the Yanks could send Wang, Cano, Cabrera, cash/whatever for Willis.

The BoSox just don't have any trade ammo.

I'm afraid Soriano would cost way too much to bring in. As a 2B with his power and speed, he should cost a pretty penny despite his inadequacies in the field.

Well, were gonna have to pay for a bat eventually if we want to win. Since the market is limited, we may have to overpay. However, it's either that or miss the playoffs again. Any suggestions? Trade for Arod or Tejada? One had no confidence in the clutch and the other has steroid rumors fllying around him.