Building for 2007: How do you distribute the money?

[The Cat]

(warning: LONG)

We have four painful weeks to wait before teams really start talking to free agents, but you can bet the discussions will start within the Astros' management this week. On the surface, you'll have $45 million or so coming off the books between Bagwell, Pettitte and Clemens... but of course, it's not that smple.

Clemens' money is always separate, so that $10 million doesn't really count. Plus, you have to account for probably $7 or $8 extra million to arbitration-eligible players. Then, take away another $7 or $8 million for Drayton... it's unlikely and unrealistic to expect him to keep the payroll as high as he did last season. We can assume Biggio will be brought back for around the same salary. So, in my opinion, without re-signing Huff and Pettitte, we'll have around $20-$25 millon to play with.

Tentatively, this leaves you with something like this:

C: Ausmus/Quintero/House
1B: Berkman/Lamb/House
2B: Biggio/Burke/House
SS: Everett/Bruntlett/Burke
3B: Ensberg/Lamb/Bruntlett
LF: Scott/Burke/Jimerson
CF: Taveras/Burke/Jimerson
RF: Lane/Burke/Jimerson

SP: Oswalt, Hirsh, Albers, Buchholz, Rodriguez
MR: Wheeler, Qualls, Lidge, Nieve, Miller, Springer

Spots of concern:

Starting pitching: This, to me, is the biggest. Outside of Oswalt, there's no consistency here. I think it's imperative for us to convince Andy to come back, and hopefully Roger too. Andy would hopefully come for a discounted rate ($8 mil a season, maybe?) and Roger's money clearly is separate from the rest of the payroll. If you have to replace these two, it's going to be very difficult. Pitching is notoriously overvalued and ends up getting overpaid in free agency. If you want one of the elite hurlers (Zito), that's going to be $14 or so of your $20 million to play with right there. I think it's best to go all-out to re-sign Pettitte ($8 mil), scan the trade market for values (see what Padres did with Chris Young) and treat everything with Roger as a bonus.

Catcher: Ausmus is probably back (he's signed), but wow, this is a concern spot. It wouldn't be so bad if we weren't also sacrificing offense at short, but it's a killer. I hope we get lucky and Ausmus retires, but assuming that doesn't happen, there's probably no money spent here. If Toronto lets Molina walk, we might take a look.

Third base: Is Morgan the answer? Personally, I think he's fine and he's under club control... as long as you keep him in the 2 spot and out of a position in the lineup that depends on him to drive in runs. We also desperately need right-handed bats. If he's not, are you willing to depend on Lamb as a full-time player, or do you want to re-sign Huff?

Corner outfield: Clearly, we need more offense. As of now, we have Luke Scott. Is he a starter? In my opinion, he's proven he deserves the chance, and he doesn't cost much money, so that's an easy decision. The other spot? Assuming Ensberg/Lamb can handle third, it's Aubrey Huff right now. But is he the best fit? I don't think he is, at least not with Scott in the other corner. I like Huff, and I know he likes this team, but we have to make decisions that are best for us overall. And one huge problem down the stretch this season was the ability of lefties to crush the middle part of our lineup.

I'd let Huff walk. I don't think he's enough of an upgrade over Ensberg at third to warrant the additional salary. And while he's a good corner OF, I think we really need a reliable right-handed power bat that can hit both righties and lefties well in the 4-spot in the order. Picture Carlos Lee. We've been talking for months, and we have the money... let's make it happen for $9 or $10 million a year. If you sandwich Berkman at 3 in between Ensberg at 2 and Lee at 4, it's a lot more difficult for lefty relievers to mow through the lineup. If not Lee, go for another right-handed corner OF with quality production. But I'd break up the string of lefties.

Centerfield: It's clear the Astros aren't all that enamored with Willy. A month and a half ago, there were rumors we'd be interested in Jim Edmonds, who probably wouldn't cost all that much. And it's definitely a spot we could upgrade, especially in terms of producing runs. But, we don't have unlimited money, and to me, this isn't the most pressing need, especially when we have other areas to attend to. Willy became more selective as the year went on (OBP of .387 in August) and raised his OBP almost a full point (.325 to .333) from last year to this year.

He needs to improve that even more, but from my perspective, his eye is improving. He also improved his base running from the beginning of the season to the end. I think he's cheap enough and valuable enough defensvely to keep around. Plus, even if he doesn't make the necessary improvements, Burke's capable of doing a decent job both at the plate and in center. I think a significant addition here (Edmonds or Hunter) would cost so much to be a value for us.

Relief pitching: Everyone knows this was an issue. But, Wheeler's put together back to back outstanding years. Qualls was pretty good. The team has high hopes for Nieve. Lidge, while struggling, clearly still has the talent. I'd love for us to acquire another reliever, but to me, this is an area where we have enough talent that we can survive as it is. And to me, we have too many other holes that need fixing with that money.



LONG post, but to me, that details the problem spots. From there, how do you distribute the money? Assuming we have $20 to $25 mllion to re-sign our own free agents (not counting arbitration-eligible) as well as sign others, what spots get upgraded with those funds? Ideally, we could fix all of them, but that's not financially feasible... so what are the things we absolutely have to do?

[The Cat]

My plan:

1. Be aggressive in re-signing Pettitte. He didn't have the best season, but he came on strong late, and this team desperately needs reliable starters. Make him the top priority. He had a down year, and he only averaged about $10 mil a season three years ago, so I'm guessing we can get him for aorund $8 million.

2. Plan for life after Roger. If he wants to come back, great. Let's take him back. But no more penciling him into the rotation and then hoping and praying he comes through. Let's build the rotation like he's not going to come, and anything from him is a bonus.

3. Explore the trade market for Morgan Ensberg. I like Morgan, but clearly this isn't the best situation right now. If you can get a good deal (maybe San Diego for Linebrink or Meredith and a pitching prospect along with some cash?), take it. If not, keep him, because he still has a lot of value, especially if you put him in the 2 spot and take advantage of his OBP.

3. If you can't get a good deal for Ensberg (and I doubt we will), let Huff walk. I think he's a good guy. I think he wants to come back. But I don't think he fits any need well enough to justify the $6 or $7 million of our $20 that he would likely require. He might be an upgrade on Ensberg, but I don't think he's enough of an upgrade to justify that increase in salary. Hope Ensberg comes around, and if he doesn't, platoon him with Lamb.

4. Sign Carlos Lee or another right-handed corner outfield bat. We need a legit run producer behind Berkman, and he needs to be right-handed so we can break up the string of lefties that leaves us so vulnerable to the Macay McBride's and Chuck James' of the world. That'll probably cost you $9 million this first season.

5. Scan the trade market hard for undervalued American League starting pitchers. The NL is full of run of the mill AL pitchers turned semi-studs upon meeting the NL... see what San Diego did with Chris Young last year. Don't be afraid to deal a prospect to make the trade; look at Hirsh's performance after so many of you expected Roy Oswalt part 2. It's not that simple with prospects. Look hard, find a team that needs one of our prospects or position players without a place to play (Chris Burke, Jason Lane, maybe even Brad Lidge?), and make a deal. Make them the #3 pitcher in the rotation behind Roy and Andy.

6. Put out feelers for Bengie Molina (if he's a FA) and gauge his interest. Clearly, it'd be a sensitive issue with Ausmus coming back for one more season. But, Ausmus knows it's likely his last season, and he's wearing down... he'd probably agree to a deal where he only played 2 out of 5 days. You need to plan for life after Brad, and I don't think the organization views Quintero or Gimenez as long-term solutions... see if we can find a capable one this offseason for cheap. Otherwise, play Ausmus and Quintero again and re-examine the situation for 2008.

7. Hometown discounts. See if there's a veteran player at one of the previously mentioned weak spots who might come cheaper because of the location. Woody Williams comes to mind... cheap deal, perhaps?

8. Look for a versatile, right-handed outfielder that can mash lefties. We're too split toward hitting right-handed pitching... we need some versatility to give Luke (and Huff, if he's resigned) platoon partners so we aren't hopeless against lefties again. I'm thinking an Eric Byrnes type... capable defenders who can hit lefties and won't cost all that much ($3 mil or so).

9. Scan the reliever market and see if you can pick up an additional reliever on the cheap. Think Guardado, Wickman, Baez, Borowski, etc. We don't necessarily need another reliever as it stands, but I think Lidge is going to be a hot commodity in the offseason (and someone who isn't a great fit here) and signing an additional reliever would give us the flexibility to deal Lidge if the right deal came along.

So, to summarize, my ideal offseason: re-sign Andy ($8 mil), sign Lee ($9 mil), sign Byrnes ($3 mil), sign a reliever like Borowski ($1 mil), and sign a vet SP (Woody Williams?) if you don't get a commitment from Clemens.

My ideal 2007 25-man roster:
C: Ausmus/Quintero
1B: Berkman/House
2B: Biggio/Burke
SS: Everett/Bruntlett
3B: Ensberg/Lamb
LF: Lee/Byrnes
CF: Taveras/Byrnes
RF: Scott/Byrnes

SP: Oswalt, Pettitte, two out of Clemens/Woody Williams/trade possibilities, one out of Hirsh/Albers
MR: Wheeler, Qualls, Lidge, Nieve, Miller, Borowski... and insert Springer or Sampson if Qualls or Lidge gets dealt for SP or offensive help

[Nick]

They HAVE to take care of the pitching first... no matter what. Hirsh, Albers, and Buchholz still have waaaaay too little seasoning. I expect Hirsh to improve (as he does at every level), and Albers to gain better command of his stuff... it may be now or never time for Buchholz.

Re-signing Pettite is a PRIORITY... he's still a guy who can give you a quality outing whenever you need it, he's a quality lefty (which raises his stock even more), and he's the only way we'd have a shot of Clemens coming back.

Lee would be a nice contributer... but there are still going to be games where the offense struggles. That's just a given, since the team will still have Willy leading off with no extra-base capability, and mediocre OBP... Biggio will still command plenty of AB's... and Everett/Ausmus are still going to get a fair share of playing time.

Huff is ideal... if he was a right-handed bat. If Ensberg shows any signs of coming around, you have to give him the opportunity. Then again, Ensberg is being evaluated 1 year at a time... and if he flames out again next year, it would be a shame to have wasted a chance to keep Huff.

Its funny that the biggest weakness of this team, for a long time, was their lack of left-handed power hitting... now its almost the opposite.

My agenda would be:
1.) Re-sign Pettite, Biggio; Arbitration raises for Ensberg, Lidge, Everett.
2.) Assess Huff's contract demands... if he's so enamored by Houston that he offers a steal of a deal, take it.
3.) Attempt to sign Carlos Lee... regardless of what Huff does.

If you don't get Pettite back, all bets are off regarding the rest of the off-season. I honestly don't see a point in trying to "outslug" teams because we all know what wins in the long run.

[JunkyardDwg]

I think Sampson deserves a shot at a starting spot next season; he's looked pretty solid in all his starts this year. Him and Hirsch could possibly round out the rotation with Albers and Buchholz in waiting in case one or both falters.

The bullpen found itself over the course of the season and I think that's one area that really doesn't need tweaking. In fact I wouldn't even be averse to doing a bullpen by committee thing next season with any combo of Wheeler, Qualls, Lidge or Nieve closing games. It seemed to work pretty well toward the end of the season.

[Zac D]

Here's the thing about the catcher spot, I think. Bengie is really the only guy in FA who's guaranteed to be a pretty nice upgrade offensively on Ausmus (and isn't like 8907436 years old). Barajas seems to hit the ball hard, but rarely. Molina would be such a nice #7 hitter - doesn't strike out, practically guaranteed .750 or so OPS - and the addition of him and a power-hitting righty like Carlos Lee to the lineup, we'd be pretty well-off offensively.

The problem is, I know nothing of his defense, nor of why he was so undesirable as a free agent last year, and so unlikely to be retained by the Jays this time around.

[The Cat]

How successful do you guys think Woody Williams could be here?

This is something I keep coming back to, especially now that I found this from John Lopez a month ago.

And that front-line starting pitcher the Astros will try to land come the winter? He's out there, watching. His name could well be Woody Williams, the Padres starter and long-rumored Astros acquisition who's apparently keen on making it happen this time.

http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/sports/lopez/4153408.html

On the surface, a 3.65 ERA pitcher wanting to come home for a discount looks great. But, he clearly doesn't have the best stuff, and he's also coming from incredibly pitcher-friendly Petco. He also had an ERA of 4.85 in 2005, and has only averaged about 150 IP the last two seasons.

Is he worth it, for $5 million a season or so? It seems very realistic, it's just a matter of whether it's a good option for us to pursue.

[Nick]

Woody would have been great... back in 2003.

I'd take him as a consistent #3 or #4 guy... but not as the #2 behind Roy.

[Zac D]

I'd dig Woody. ****, bat him 8th. Don't you feel like we should add another half-run to his ERA each year, though, just because he wouldn't get to face the 'Stros?

[The Cat]

Woody would have been great... back in 2003.

I'd take him as a consistent #3 or #4 guy... but not as the #2 behind Roy.

Right; clearly, he's way, way down on the list of priorities. I'm just thinking along the lines of the #3 spot, in the scenario that we re-sign Andy but Roger decides to take the "wait and see" approach again and the SP trade market isn't looking too good.

Also, Nick, I know you're not exactly a huge fan of Willy... if we fail in landing Lee, would you take much of a run at Edmonds? He'd clearly do some things better than Willy, but is the injury/age risk too much at this stage? Also, there's the left-handed part too.

What would you guys think about maybe an Edmonds/insert platoon player here situation in center or right in the event we get outbid on the Lee's and Soriano's of the market?

[Nick]

Its not that I'm not a fan of Willy... I just don't agree with using him at the leadoff spot, given his "production." Then again, on a team with Everett/Ausmus/Biggio... there really isnt' a place you can justify putting him.

All in all, he's still a young kid who would still be at AAA on most teams, or would be batting no better than 7th.

I don't know how much longer Edmonds is going to hold up. I wouldn't be against it, but after watching a ton of Cards games over the years... I think a lot of Astros fans tend to over-value Jim Edmonds as a player. It seems like he has a great game whenever we play him, but in reality... he's VERY streaky, and I sometimes question his focus/determination.

[Angle02]

So what happened to Backe to not mention him in any of the plans? Is he out next season as well?

[Nick]

So what happened to Backe to not mention him in any of the plans? Is he out next season as well?

Tommy John surgery typically takes 8 months - 1 full year before a pitcher starts throwing again... then it probably takes another half a year before a pitcher builds up his arm to where he's just as strong (if not stronger) than he was before.

My guess is he'll start making a few appearences next July, August out of the bullpen... but won't be ready for the rotation till April 2008.

[Zac D]

I'm wondering what the Gil Meche, Randy Wolf tier of starters are going to be asking. I know the Phils retaining Wolf is far from a sure thing, and I believe the situation is similar in Seattle; I ADORE Meche's stuff, and he's finally healthy.

Kip Wells may be a hometown flier possibility.

And - yeah, I think I'd take Jeff Suppan at a reasonable price.

[Rocket Fan]

Also have to buy out Bagwell's contract unless insurance covers it..

[The Cat]

So what happened to Backe to not mention him in any of the plans? Is he out next season as well?

At least for most of it. He might come back in late August or early September, but it's to be determined, and it's not something you want to depend on.

Nick, I agree with you on Willy. I don't dislike him either, but he's not a great fit at the top of the order and his lack of run production hurts when you consider that Everett and Ausmus are also likely to be in the lneup. That's why I'd consider making a move, if one is financially feasible.

I'm not enamored with Edmonds like some fans are; I just think he might be the most available and the most undervalued in this particular market. He also seems to be the kind of veteran who we typically seek out and the kind of player who gets drawn to a team like the Astros.

Also, anyone have some potential AL pitching trade targets? I mentioned Chris Young as an example, but I'm not sure what the market is this year. Off the top of my head, Matt Clement seems to be a guy very available who might rebound in a NL environment... but I'm sure there are plenty of others like him. Clement's just someone who comes to mind because of the media's Yankee/Red Sox obsession.

[kaleidosky]

Right; clearly, he's way, way down on the list of priorities. I'm just thinking along the lines of the #3 spot, in the scenario that we re-sign Andy but Roger decides to take the "wait and see" approach again and the SP trade market isn't looking too good.

Also, Nick, I know you're not exactly a huge fan of Willy... if we fail in landing Lee, would you take much of a run at Edmonds? He'd clearly do some things better than Willy, but is the injury/age risk too much at this stage? Also, there's the left-handed part too.

What would you guys think about maybe an Edmonds/insert platoon player here situation in center or right in the event we get outbid on the Lee's and Soriano's of the market?

Not addressed to me...but I wouldn't risk Edmonds--not at the price he'll require. His injuries have gone up...esp. the way he likes to play D. Anything I'd offer him would be something that STL would offer, in which case I think he'd stay there (if those were his only 2 legit offers somehow) See Steve Finley for what can happen with aging OF's.. (though yes, he had some good seasons before finally breaking down)

I wouldn't be comfortable with Woody Williams in anything but the 4th slot in the rotation. I think he's also lost some with age...

I'd be willing to platoon Huff and someone if we can't get a big name at one of the corners...problem is, I can see us getting hung up in part 2 of Carlos Negotiations and then not having much available once that's all taken care of if we lose out..

[Zac D]

I'm not enamored with Edmonds like some fans are; I just think he might be the most available and the most undervalued in this particular market. He also seems to be the kind of veteran who we typically seek out and the kind of player who gets drawn to a team like the Astros.

White? :p

Also, anyone have some potential AL pitching trade targets? I mentioned Chris Young as an example, but I'm not sure what the market is this year. Off the top of my head, Matt Clement seems to be a guy very available who might rebound in a NL environment... but I'm sure there are plenty of others like him. Clement's just someone who comes to mind because of the media's Yankee/Red Sox obsession.

Yeah, I'm trying to think of an AL team that would be willing to trade pitching for hitting, or younger pitching. Maybe the Angels? Kevin Gregg? Maybe the A's would do a one-for-two with Zito walking, couple of pitchers for Danny Haren. Or - and I hesitate even to suggest this, because I'm pretty sure he's bad - Esteban Loaiza?

[Zac D]

On doing a little searching, appears Gregg may not be retained by the Angels and wants to be a starter. Might be an interesting direction to look.

[weslinder]

Primary concern has to be getting the #2 and #3 Starters. Pettitte should be one of these. For the other, I'd think about offering a package deal, with Mike Lamb and some prospects for some other team's #3 starter (preferably from the AL, NL teams will devalue Lamb because of his awful glove). I lean toward workhorse type pitchers, like possibly Freddy Garcia.

Second concern is a slugger for either 3B or a corner OF spot. Obviously Carlos Lee is the number one choice here. Offer Aubrey Huff 3 years $15 MM. If he doesn't take it, try your luck with Ensberg.

Catcher and Shortstop are tertiary concerns, but I'd wait on these. I'm one of the guys who thinks that Everett's glove is worth more than .030 in batting average. I'd start planning for House to be the primary catcher eventually. Use him now 20-30% of the time and try to bring that up.

Every team should always be looking for relief pitchers, but that is down the list for the Astros. If a good lefty is available, take him. Otherwise, the pen is pretty good as is.

[The Cat]

I agree with most of it, wes, except this...

Catcher and Shortstop are tertiary concerns, but I'd wait on these. I'm one of the guys who thinks that Everett's glove is worth more than .030 in batting average. I'd start planning for House to be the primary catcher eventually. Use him now 20-30% of the time and try to bring that up.

I'd love for that to be true, but I've read too many insiders that say there's virtually no chance that House has the arm strength necessary to be a catcher on a regular basis. Now, Quintero had a good final month of the season, and he has an excellent arm behind the plate... maybe we give him another look. But I don't think there's anyone in our system now that we can definitely say is a future starter at catcher, and if one comes available (Molina) I really hope we don't wait on it.

Of course, if we fix all the other areas we've talked about in this thread, we probably won't have the money and we may have to wait anyway.

[Joe Joe]

1) Need to find two starting pitchers. One needs to be great (a certain Lefty would fill this void if they could keep him). The other needs to not suck completely. I'd have Hirsh and Taylor B as the last two starters if they could hold off all challengers (Albers, Nieve, Sampson, Delilah, etc).

2) Go after Carlos Lee. Huff is a nice fallback position. Not much left if Astros get 2 starters, but need to try to get one more corner OF to pair with Scott. I'd keep Lane as backup and hope he can find his mojo again.

3) Getting a centerfielder is a big want. Doesn't need to Edmunds quality, but someone that can play defense and swing a bat properly would be nice. I'd like the CF to bat 6th or 8th depending on the catcher. Taveras is not good enough to bat top of the order, but the bottom is already weaker than most teams.

4) Replace Garner. He has done a good job managing with 30 players, but they usually only get 25.

5) Try to find someone that can replace Ausmus when he decides to coach.

6) Convince Biggio that he's already got 3000 hits.

[Storm Surge]

My primary concern is improving the cleanup spot, it's clear that our pitchers are more than adequate to get the job done. Even without Clemens or Pettite, we have some arms(hirsch, albers, sampson) that are better than most. My priorities are

1. lineup after berkman
2. lineup after berkman
3. starting pitching

I feel the guys that should be moved are Huff(didn't show anything at all), Ensberg, and Lane. We need to clear up the logjam in our infield with having too many players that play the same positions. They need a more set lineup, I don't want 3-4 different lineups each game

[Rule0001]

Doug Davis, I've always liked Doug Davis. He pitches like Andy Pettitte would pitch like, if he wasn't on steroids. LOL LOL

Davis really didn't have that good of year, but I always liked him for some reason. And he's a FA. Also, I'd recomend a Bengie Molina call.

[dream34shake]

Isn't our top catching prospect Hector Gimenez? And can someone give me minor league stats on him please.

[Burzmali]

Pitching is the first priority. Signing Pettitte seems like the best option. Maybe a 2 year deal at 8-9 per.

As for the lineup, I think resigning Huff should be a priority along with persuing Lee. Prior to acquiring Huff and calling up Luke Scott, this team's OPS splits against RHP were abysmal. Don't have such short memories people. If we got Lee... I'd like to platoon Huff and Ensberg at third, and Lane and Scott at RF.

vs. RHP:
Taveras
Scott
Berkman
Lee
Huff
Biggio/Burke
Everett
Ausmus

vs. LHP:
Taveras
Ensberg
Berkman
Lee
Biggio/Burke
Lane
Everett
Ausmus

I definitely think this would be a top 5 lineup in the NL.

Pitching wise... plenty of young arms.

Rotation:
Oswalt
Pettitte
Hirsh
Albers
Buchholz

I think Hirsh will have an impressive second year as he adjusts to the majors. I also love Albers and Buchholz's stuff. Wandy in my mind is done and should spend the year in AAA much like Astascio this year.

Bullpen:
Lidge
Wheeler
Qualls
Nieve
Miller

These five guys should be the main guys out of the pen. And should do very well. I hope Lidge can add a third pitch and rebound next season. Otherwise, Wheeler has shown that he could close effectively.

1. Resign Pettitte
2. Sign Lee
3. Resign Huff

[BigM]

re-sign pettite. sign carlos lee.

i'd like to see a shot given to sampson as our fifth starter. he throws strikes and i like the confidence he brings to the mound. i'd give him the nod before albers or buchholz.

if we again plan on carrying taveras, biggio, everett, and ausmus as regulars in the lineup(OUCH!) than we HAVE to get someone like carlos lee to give us a boost.

biggio obviously will be in there till 3,000 and i think everett is too valuable defensively, with no obvious offense upgrade in sight, to sit. taveras i don't really care for, but again defensively he's so much better than any of our in-house alternatives.

luke scott has earned the starting job for next season.

[rhino17]

I dont know why everyone i sknocking Willy. He did struggle in the beggining of the year, but I think he has been quite valuable down the stretch.
As far as starting pitching is concerned I think Sampson deserves a chance. although hes not staying in games too long, I think he has shown some good things. Hes got a pretty good ERA and hes pitched pretty well this year. I would definatly consider him over Albers or Bucholtz. Maybe #4 pitcher?

[xishi]

as far as our offense:
willy must stay. so must huff. lee needs to be signed.
need to find an upgraded bat at catcher.
ensberg-im just tired of seeing him strike out swinging and esp. looking.

taveras
scott
berkman
lee
huff
biggio/burke
??/ausmus
everett
pitcher

[OldManBernie]

Let's say the Astros should have about 25 million to work with, so here's what I'd do:

Starting Rotation:

- Resigning Pettite would be great as long as he offers a discount. I'd offer 2 yr at 8 mil per year.

- I'd look into signing either Woody Williams, Jeff Suppan or Brad Radke at around 4-6 mil per year.

- I'd then let the young guns of Albers, Sampson, Buckholtz, Hirsh, Wandy and Astacio fight it out for spots 4 and 5.

- Backe probably won't be effective next year, but I'll welcome him with open arms if he is healthy in 2008.

Relief Pitching:

- There is no sense in trading Lidge because he is worthless to other teams now. I say we see if he can return to form next year.

- Wheeler is a stud. Qualls and Miller are serviceable. Considering how many young pitchers we have available, I don't see a need to convert Qualls into a starter unless we trade away some young pitching or we fail to get veterans at #2 and #3 spots.

- Nieve may have closer potential, so I'd have a direct competition between him and Lidge for the closer spot.

- I'd look into signing either Francisco Cordero or Eddie Guardado for cheap if they're available. We might get lucky and get some insurance at the closer spot.

Catcher:

- Ausmus has declined defensively. While his arm is now below average, he still does a good job blocking pitches. His age has yet to make him senile, so he still calls a great game. I have no qualms with keeping him at catcher if we can improve our offense else where.

- I'd look into acquiring a better hitting backup. If Javier Valentin or Mike Lieberthal are available at less than 2 mil per year, I'd be very interested in acquring them.

Infield:

- Berkman is a stud and Biggio is looking to make history. They stay on the left side.

- Everett is a defensive wizard, and that is more than enough to make him a key cog in this team. His hitting may be poor, but he does have his share of clutch hits. I think he will be better off batting at the 2 spot, where he can get some pitches to hit in front of Berkman. While it makes the top of the lineup a bit weaker, our bottom of the lineup won't be such a black hole (as long as we have a decent bat at the 7 spot).

- Ensberg is still eligible for arbitration, so it makes sense to keep him (also considering how he finds success every other year).

- Mike Lamb, Eric Bruntlett and Chris Burke offers pretty good depth at the infield.

Outfield (Changes Galore!):

- Considering we have only 1 or maybe 2 really good bats in the IF, we need to be very good offensively in the OF.

- Carlos Lee would be a great addition, but I think there may be a bidding war to obtain his service. I'm just not sure if he is worth 12 mil per year.

- On the other hand, I'd look into signing Moises "Moist Hands" Alou on the cheap. He gives us a one year look into seeing if Luke Scott actually has what it takes.

- Aubrey Huff is so valuable because of his versatility. I would keep him and start him at RF (I don't think he'll sign with us if we don't give him a starting spot). If someone goes down in the IF, we can move Huff to IF while Alou and Scott man the RF and LF.

- If TB truly is dangling Carl Crawford as a trade bait, I'd trade Taveras and 2 SP prospects for him in a heartbeat. While Crawford is a LF, I'd imagine he has the athleticism to play the CF as well as Jason Lane. He'll make one helluva leadoff man.

- Palmeiro will stay as our main left-handed pinch hitter, and we'll keep Jason Lane if we decide to carry 6 OFs.

- I may look into acquiring Reggie Sanders as an additional right-handed pinch hitter for cheap, but doing so may force both Lane and Scott to go to the minors.

SPs:
Oswalt
Pettite*
Williams/Suppan/Radke*
2 Young Pitchers

RPs:
Lidge
Wheeler
Qualls
Miller
Nieve
Guardado/Cordero*

Catcher:
Ausmus
Valentin/Lieberthal*

IF:
Berkman - 1st
Biggio - 2nd
Everett - SS
Ensberg - 3rd
Lamb
Burke
Bruntlett

OF:
Alou - LF*
Crawford - CF*
Huff - RF*
Scott
Palmeiro

* denotes new acquisition

Batting Order:
Crawford
Everett
Berkman
Ensberg
Huff
Alou
Biggio
Ausmus

[rhino17]

[QUOTE=OldManBernie]
- I'd look into signing either Woody Williams, Jeff Suppan or Brad Radke at around 4-6 mil per year.





Brad Radke has already announced he will retire after the playoffs. He needs major arm surgery after the season and he wont pitch again

[Xenon]

I still think a smarter signing would be Torii Hunter 10-12ish mil per than signing Carlos Lee for 14-15ish mil per. It would improve our defense up the middle and immensely improve the offense at that position. We have 2 great corner outfield prospects in Scott and Pence already. I'd hate to see one of them blocked like Burke at 2nd. We could hold onto Taveras as a 4th outfielder or perhaps trade him for a reliever or prospect.

Another low cost pitcher to consider besides Woody Williams would be Miguel Batista. If we could sign both of those guys the rotation should be at least adequate.

[MadMax]

My plan is to hibernate until pitchers and catchers report.

[Xerobull]

Lots of great, concise opinions here. Just want to back that we need to add to (or keep) our pitching solid, and the biggest thing is that we need bats. If we had the offense of other competing teams like the Mets, Yanks, Red Sox, etc, we would be working on our second WS championship right now.

I have no problem with Garner. He took us to a WS last year. You can't blame him completely for the lack of fire in the clubhouse- I think that's more from a bunch of complacent vets. Maybe we need some more latin fire in the clubhouse?

I'd say that the biggest need outside of players is for a better GM. Purpura is serviceable in a so-so organization that wants to fill the stands, but we need an upper-tier GM.

[toby]

I wouldn't by any means turn down a chance to dominate, but there is something about the Astros: the history we have all dealt with, and the idea of an underdog, late season heroics that define our team.

Most of you guys won't like what I'm saying, but . . .

If we can bolster our pitching we will be good to go. There's something with signing the big star fielder/hitter that sits uneasy with me. It has never really worked in the past and I don't see it working that much this off season. We didn't go out and sign our bigest contributors (historically they come from the farm or through trades). The people we think will be the key never really work out. Sometimes they get us a bit closer (Kent) but most of the time they just get paid. We are not the Yankees and we are not the Dodgers. Stick with our hitters and bring in some kids to fill the voids. Throw all the money we can at pitching. ALL OF IT.

Our hitting is not one player away. We are 1/2 a lineup away from what most of us would really like stepping up to the plate night in and night out. Roll the dice on what we got.

[Ric]

We have 2 great corner outfield prospects in Scott and Pence already.
scott's 28, 29 years old; not 22. it's more likely he's jason lane than lance berkman. he deserves every single last opportunity to win a starting job in ST, but not at the expense of signing a proven commodity like carlos lee (who, if not mistaken, is the same age).

scott was great this year. but i think the astros have to, or, at least NEED to approach this offseason as if he's no better than a 4th OF'er. if he proves '06 wasn't a fluke, then it's a nice problem to have.

having younger players blocked by *better* players is acceptable. the problem with biggio/burke - burke's (probably) the better player and should be playing more.

[Buck Turgidson]

having younger players blocked by *better* players is acceptable.
Acceptable? Most of the time, it's pretty damn desirable. ;)

Agreed on Scott - he was great this season, but is nowhere near a sure thing for next. Bringing back Huff (with MoBerg) gives you a modicum of insurance. As does Pence.

[Xenon]

scott's 28, 29 years old; not 22. it's more likely he's jason lane than lance berkman. he deserves every single last opportunity to win a starting job in ST, but not at the expense of signing a proven commodity like carlos lee (who, if not mistaken, is the same age).

scott was great this year. but i think the astros have to, or, at least NEED to approach this offseason as if he's no better than a 4th OF'er. if he proves '06 wasn't a fluke, then it's a nice problem to have.

having younger players blocked by *better* players is acceptable. the problem with biggio/burke - burke's (probably) the better player and should be playing more.

I didn't say Scott was Lance Berkman. If he can hit 280ish/25hr/90 rbis that'd be just fine. The improvement in the offense will come from replacing Taveras and his .672 ops with Hunter's .786 ops and improved defense. I'm starting to warmup to the idea of trying to re-sign Huff just in case one of those guys fails miserably.

[rrj_gamz]

I agree with your analysis and to be honest, there are a lot of holes to fill...Starting pitching and another bat or two would be a good start...I think Andy should come back, but think Roger is done...Carlos needs to be an Astros...

[weslinder]

I still think a smarter signing would be Torii Hunter 10-12ish mil per than signing Carlos Lee for 14-15ish mil per. It would improve our defense up the middle and immensely improve the offense at that position. We have 2 great corner outfield prospects in Scott and Pence already. I'd hate to see one of them blocked like Burke at 2nd. We could hold onto Taveras as a 4th outfielder or perhaps trade him for a reliever or prospect.

Another low cost pitcher to consider besides Woody Williams would be Miguel Batista. If we could sign both of those guys the rotation should be at least adequate.
Will Hunter be available? I'd rather have him. The difference in hitting is really small, and Hunter is better at all other parts of the game.

I agree with Miguel Batista, he's a solid pitcher.

[Xenon]

Will Hunter be available? I'd rather have him. The difference in hitting is really small, and Hunter is better at all other parts of the game.

I agree with Miguel Batista, he's a solid pitcher.

I hope he is available. He has a 12mil option for another year, but not sure if the Twins are going to exercise it.

[MadMax]

I hope he is available. He has a 12mil option for another year, but not sure if the Twins are going to exercise it.

i would think with a new ballpark on the way, they would.

[Ric]

Acceptable? Most of the time, it's pretty damn desirable.
i actually did a piss-poor job cutting and pasting xenon's post; that was in response to his comment, "I'd hate to see one of them blocked like Burke at 2nd."

If he can hit 280ish/25hr/90 rbis that'd be just fine.
well, sure, but that's asking him to, from a power perspective, duplicate his '06 performance, and i think going into the offseason expecting it would be a major mistake.

and how are they going to get hunter?

[Buck Turgidson]

well, sure, but that's asking him to, from a power perspective, duplicate his '06 performance, and i think going into the offseason expecting it would be a major mistake.
Over 600 ABs, Scott's numbers this year project out to: 53 doubles, 17 triples, 28 bombs. Sick.

The league will adjust...can Scott? We'll see. Having no backup plan other than Pence would be a mistake, imo.

[weslinder]

Over 600 ABs, Scott's numbers this year project out to: 53 doubles, 17 triples, 28 bombs. Sick.

The league will adjust...can Scott? We'll see. Having no backup plan other than Pence would be a mistake, imo.
From what I've seen, there's not a lot of adjusting to be done. Scott has trouble hitting lefties with good breaking stuff, but can hit just about everything else, and has the patience to not chase. Biggio never could hit righties with good breaking stuff, and he's had a pretty darn good career. There's even fewer lefties with good breaking stuff.

[Ric]

Over 600 ABs, Scott's numbers this year project out to: 53 doubles, 17 triples, 28 bombs. Sick.
i know, just an unbelievable (half) year.

lots of woulda, coulda and shoulda's this year, but i maintain lane getting 230 first-half ABs at the expense of scott was among the three biggest missteps this year. scott from june on is worth at least a game; maybe 2. not that that would have made a difference............

[Nick]

I hope he is available. He has a 12mil option for another year, but not sure if the Twins are going to exercise it.

They're not... but Hunter isn't going to accept any less on the FA market. He commands more value than Lee because of the postion that he plays... the Red Sox may pay it (Coco Crisp has been a bust).

[TMac#1]

Vernon Wells is available - .303 32 HR 106 RBI

[Nick]

Vernon Wells is available - .303 32 HR 106 RBI

He just said that he wants "Beltran money", and the Blue Jays just said yesterday, "Go f*** yourself!"

[Angle02]

Vernon Wells is available - .303 32 HR 106 RBI
He's 27, was born in Shreveport, LA and went to school in Arlington so I say lets get this guy closer to home. Didn't someone mention about getting a better CF?

[Xenon]

Vernon Wells is not a free agent. It will take some good prospects/players to get him here.

[toby]

The Astros live and die by their pitching . . . random corner outfielders are not going to put us in contention. Get woody and dontrell in an astros uniform, then lets talk about the outfield and a mid season signing of roger.

1)roy
2)willis
3)andy
4)williams
5)roger/young filler/bullpen fodder

we could sign 5 new position players and our run production would still suck. cut your losses and spend your money on the most valuable factor in a game . . . pitching.

[MadMax]

The Astros live and die by their pitching . . . random corner outfielders are not going to put us in contention. Get woody and dontrell in an astros uniform, then lets talk about the outfield and a mid season signing of roger.

1)roy
2)willis
3)andy
4)williams
5)roger/young filler/bullpen fodder

we could sign 5 new position players and our run production would still suck. cut your losses and spend your money on the most valuable factor in a game . . . pitching.

i agree...but still add a bat.

[redgoose]

The Astros live and die by their pitching . . . random corner outfielders are not going to put us in contention. Get woody and dontrell in an astros uniform, then lets talk about the outfield and a mid season signing of roger.

1)roy
2)willis
3)andy
4)williams
5)roger/young filler/bullpen fodder

we could sign 5 new position players and our run production would still suck. cut your losses and spend your money on the most valuable factor in a game . . . pitching.


With this theory, we could set the record for most no decisions by a team's starters in history. Pitching does win games. But you still have to score more then your opponent to win. Just ask Roger. Then ask Roy why he hasn't won a Cy Young yet.

[Buck Turgidson]

Then ask Roy why he hasn't won a Cy Young yet.
Because

A) he hasn't really deserved one until possibly this year, and
B) they haven't announced the 2006 award yet.

[Xenon]

Crap. Torii Hunter is out. The Twins just picked up his option for 2007.