Understanding the Astros Payroll for Next Year?

[tested911]

Everyone keeps saying that with Bagwell, Clemens, and Pettite comming off the books the Astros will have around $50 Million dollars coming off the books next year.

Thats great but we are at 106 million dollar team right now.. Do you think Uncle Drayton wants to stay at the 3rd highest payroll or even in the top 5 next year?

He's going to proably revert back to a $75 million ball club... give or take 5 million..

That would mean we would just have about 20-25 million dollars to aquire some talent...

Let me know what you guys think..

[Angle02]

I think it really depends on who we would go after on our payroll. If we were able to get a high profile guy that will fill the seats (like Clemens did for us), I think Uncle Drayton will shell out some money. Then again I think how we do this season my determind it too.

[weslinder]

He has said multiple times that $85MM is required to field a competitive team. So I'm guessing that $85-95MM payroll would be approximately Drayton's range. I don't know who is up for contracts, so I don't know how many will be re-signed. If Pettitte wants to play, look for him to be signed at about 1/2 his last contract. But I think it'd be a good idea to start looking at one of the big name expirings: Carlos Lee, Barry Zito. The team could definitely take on salary in the offseason.

[RocketManJosh]

I really hope they use a good chunk of that "freed up" money to lock up Roy O for the forseeable future. I didn't like what I heard about him wanting to test the FA waters in 2 seasons. Roy and Lance could be cornerstones keeping us competitive for years to come.

[Stack24]

He's got to sign Roy O cause he's going to be asking for a lot. Clemens is gone. Pettite might not want to pitch anymore. Bags finally comes off the books. I'm sure we can take a good chunk of Bag's money and get a good player going into free agency next year to fill our power numbers. If we can make it to the post season this year he is going to have to make sure and bring in some players to contend again and with that much money opened up he sure as better find someone.

We are a really fickle town when it comes to support and he should know if he keeps the team contending more people will come out to the stadium and watch games. The minute they fall out of conention we are not going to have the crowds that we are use to having. We aren't the Red Sox or Cubs where we sell out no matter how bad we are.

We need to continue winning and he has to make an effort to do that for anyone to come out and him make money. He will end up losing more money if he decides to not be competitive and lower his payroll.

[desihooper]

IIRC, Bagwell has a buyout next year to the tune of ~$7 million. So consider that into any salary calculations. Like this year, he won't contribute anything on the field, but he'll count towards the payroll.

[Nick]

A lot of that freed up money is already going to be commited to the following before you can even start to consider outside free agents:

1.) Oswalt extension
2.) Abritration-eligible raises to Ensberg, Lidge, Everett, Backe, Qualls, Taveras, Burke.
3.) Bagwell buyout
4.) Dealing with Huff, Pettite, Wilson possible re-signings.

[Major]

We have to buy Bagwell out? I thought this was the last year of his deal. If he has another year, insurance would definitely cover that as he'd be unable to play.

I suspect Wilson's gone for sure - his production is not worth picking up at $4MM. I'd like to keep Huff, but part of it depends on what they intend to do with Berkman long-term - keep him as a 1B or an OF. It also depends on what Luke Scott does this year, I think. If he can be that lefty power guy in the outfield, Huff might be let go.

[Buck Turgidson]

2.) Abritration-eligible raises to Ensberg, Lidge, Everett, Backe, Qualls, Taveras, Burke.
Taveras & Burke shouldn't arb-eligible until after next year, no? Not sure if this is considered Qualls' 3rd year or not (pitched 25 games in '04). Wheeler's on a 1 year deal, and this is his last offseason under club control.

Not sure they're looking at significant raises to any of these guys. Oswalt is the biggie. Worrisome.

[DFW_Rockets_Fan]

My guess is we are spending next years money this year. Whatever money we spent over this year, we will be under spent by about that much next year.

Personally, I do not have a problem with it.

[rikesh316]

Taveras & Burke shouldn't arb-eligible until after next year, no? Not sure if this is considered Qualls' 3rd year or not (pitched 25 games in '04). Wheeler's on a 1 year deal, and this is his last offseason under club control.

Not sure they're looking at significant raises to any of these guys. Oswalt is the biggie. Worrisome.

Yea Burke and Taveras won't be eligible untill after next year. They both made their MLB debuts in 2004. Please don't re-sign Andy Petitite. He is done.

[Nick]

Taveras & Burke shouldn't arb-eligible until after next year, no? Not sure if this is considered Qualls' 3rd year or not (pitched 25 games in '04). Wheeler's on a 1 year deal, and this is his last offseason under club control.

Not sure they're looking at significant raises to any of these guys. Oswalt is the biggie. Worrisome.

Yea, my bad. Its just going to be Ensberg, Lidge and Everett... and while none of them have had a very good year, they're all going to get paid around $3-5 million dollars each (Ensberg may seek more, since the last 2 months can be blamed on injury... and he was on a pretty good pace when healthy).

The club will try and work these guys in trades... but they're not simply going to designate them for assignment (and thus likely lose them for nothing) while they're still under organizational control.

[bobrek]

We have to buy Bagwell out? I thought this was the last year of his deal. If he has another year, insurance would definitely cover that as he'd be unable to play.

I suspect Wilson's gone for sure - his production is not worth picking up at $4MM. I'd like to keep Huff, but part of it depends on what they intend to do with Berkman long-term - keep him as a 1B or an OF. It also depends on what Luke Scott does this year, I think. If he can be that lefty power guy in the outfield, Huff might be let go.

There is a buyout on Bagwell and I believe it is in the 7-8 million range as desihopper mentioned. Wilson's contract is for 4 million this year but I believe if they want to pick up the option they have to pick it up for an additional 3 years at 8 million per (24 miliion total).

Obviously there is no way they do that.

[DaDakota]

Giving up on this year already?

And won't the insurance company have to pay the buyout or at least something of Bagwells deal?

DD

[bobrek]

Giving up on this year already?

And won't the insurance company have to pay the buyout or at least something of Bagwells deal?

DD

You would think the insurance company would have to pay something of the buy out, but with insurance companies, you never know.

Regardless of the Astros' finish this year, Wilson's option will not be picked up unless he goes on a Beltran-like playoff tear for the remainder of the season.

[Buck Turgidson]

You would think the insurance company would have to pay something of the buy out, but with insurance companies, you never know.
I think they're scheduled to start the court proceedings w/in the next week.

[RocketManJosh]

Giving up on this year already?

And won't the insurance company have to pay the buyout or at least something of Bagwells deal?

DD

I don't think anyone is giving up on this year yet (at least I know I am not) ... just something to think about when figuring out if we might be able to resign a big free agent if we trade for a big stick in the next couple days.

[meh]

There's no way, given the state of our farm system and the age of our players today, for the Astros to simply keep "reloading". We've been on a pretty good run the past decade. But it's now barren in terms of young talent. I wish they simply concentrate on signing young players who can fit into our long term plans next year.

So what if we suck for a year or two? It's not like there's truly a difference between winning 50 games and winning 80. Except winning 50 will get you a high draft pick, and prevent you from giving up that 1st rounder for an offseason signing.

[Major]

There's no way, given the state of our farm system and the age of our players today, for the Astros to simply keep "reloading". We've been on a pretty good run the past decade. But it's now barren in terms of young talent. I wish they simply concentrate on signing young players who can fit into our long term plans next year.

Our team is already relatively young. The following players are either entering or in their prime for several more years:

1B - Berkman
2B - Burke
SS - Everett
3B - Ensberg
OF - Lane, Willy T, Scott (several or all of these could be non-factors in the future)

RP - Qualls, Lidge
SP - Nieve, Oswalt, Buchholz, Backe

Add Hirsh as a SP, and you've got a significant chunk of your team, including an entire starting staff and most of an infield. Consider that Lamb, Huff, and several bullpen guys (Wheeler, Albers, Borkoski) likely could remain for several years as well, and you only have a few holes to fill for next year's team right now. Ausmus could very well be back next year, but he's obviously not here long-term. One big bat and one big starting pitcher (could be Hirsh) and this team is likely better than the current team. Really, in the next few years, we'll be losing the following from the core due to aging:

Biggio - replaced by Burke who is better
Pettitte - terrible this year
Clemens - good, but we haven't won many of his games the last two years anway
Ausmus - opens up the spot for improved hitting
Springer - bullpen guys come and go

[kaleidosky]

Our team is already relatively young. The following players are either entering or in their prime for several more years:

1B - Berkman
2B - Burke
SS - Everett
3B - Ensberg
OF - Lane, Willy T, Scott (several or all of these could be non-factors in the future)

RP - Qualls, Lidge
SP - Nieve, Oswalt, Buchholz, Backe

Add Hirsh as a SP, and you've got a significant chunk of your team, including an entire starting staff and most of an infield. Consider that Lamb, Huff, and several bullpen guys (Wheeler, Albers, Borkoski) likely could remain for several years as well, and you only have a few holes to fill for next year's team right now. Ausmus could very well be back next year, but he's obviously not here long-term. One big bat and one big starting pitcher (could be Hirsh) and this team is likely better than the current team. Really, in the next few years, we'll be losing the following from the core due to aging:

Biggio - replaced by Burke who is better
Pettitte - terrible this year
Clemens - good, but we haven't won many of his games the last two years anway
Ausmus - opens up the spot for improved hitting
Springer - bullpen guys come and go

I know Bidge doesn't need many ABs to get 3k next year (or in the most likely scenario anyway). Do ya'll really think they'll bench him and give him spot starts? Or play Burke in the OF and utility-man-Casey-Candaele-wannabe all over the place until Bidge retires?

Also, I'd like to add Pence to your list if you're adding Hirsh. Pence is further away by all accounts, but hitters can move up quickly, right?

[Rocket Fan]

If the insurance company won't pay this year... why would they pay next year? If there has been no new injury?

Unless of course we end up getting some money through court or something.

[Major]

If the insurance company won't pay this year... why would they pay next year? If there has been no new injury?

Unless of course we end up getting some money through court or something.

The reason they wouldn't pay this year is that he participated in spring training, so they declared him to be not disabled. Presumably, he wouldn't do that next year.

[Major]

I know Bidge doesn't need many ABs to get 3k next year (or in the most likely scenario anyway). Do ya'll really think they'll bench him and give him spot starts? Or play Burke in the OF and utility-man-Casey-Candaele-wannabe all over the place until Bidge retires?

Also, I'd like to add Pence to your list if you're adding Hirsh. Pence is further away by all accounts, but hitters can move up quickly, right?

I think with the Biggio thing, we'd probably continue what we're doing now until he finally retires, whenever that might be. I did forget Pence - I imagine he'll be up in the next year or two as well.