history notes on top 5 picks

[Desert Scar]

Did some draft analyses and made some observations.

There is a lot of criticism on Vick and comparison to V Young.

Truth be told if you re-drafted maybe L Thomlinson or Seymore of the top 10 picks that year would be taken 1st over Vick. Or perhaps not.

Of QBs drafted since Vick, only Palmer (#1, 03) or Rothlesburger (#11, 04) might be drafted ahead. Personally if Ben and Mike switched Olines and teams I don't think Ben would be thought of as better, but that is another debate. You can make a strong case for Carson Palmer. Regardless, way too soon to right off Michael Vick as a lot of people seem to.

history of top 5 Qbs or RBs Mixed bag, lets go from 03 to 86 since insufficent info on Eli, Rivers, Alex Smith, etc. Y is yes (mostly succedded or better), F is for flop/flunk, X is more in between.

03 Palmer1(Y)
02 Carr1 (X), Joey H3 (F)
01 Vick1 (X), LThom5(Y)
00 JamLewis5(Y)
99 Couch1(F), McNabb2(Y), ASmith3(F), Edge4(Y), RickyW5(X)
98 Peyton1(Y), Leaf2(F), Enis5(F)
97-96 none
95 KiJCarter1(F), McNair3(Y),KerCollins5(X)
94 Faulk1(Y), HSchuler2(F)
93 Bledsoe1(Y), Mirer2(F), Hearst3(X)
92-91 none
90 Jeff Geor1(X), BlairThomas2(F)
89 Aikman1(Y), Sanders2(Y)
88 none
87 Vinny1(X), Highsmith2(F), Fullwood3(F)
86 Bo Jackson1(X), Jim Everett2(Y)
85-84 none
83 Elway1(Y), Dickerson2(Y), CurtWarner3(Y)

For QBs we have:
-8 major successes
-5 mixed bag
-6 flops

For Rbs we have
-7 major successes
-3 mixed bag
-5 flops

Interesting, if you stay away from Penn State players :) particularly Rbs, you are way better off.

on Bush . I seriously doubt any of the top 5 Rbs selected had anything less than twice the carries Bush had. You cannot assume he can be a workhorse RB. Is Bush more Peter Warrick (#4, 00) or Desmond Howard (#4, 92)--whose amazing open field games didn't translate that well to the pros and who were not durable than more Sanders (#2, 89), Faulk (#1, 94), or Dorsett (#2, 77)? I think a very fair question. Personally, I do think he will be better than Warrick/Howard but I don't think he will approach the level of impact of those three hall of fame runners I mention (Faulk, Dorsett, Sanders). I haven't seen a consistent between the tackles dominant performance by Bush to suggest he is at their level of impact as an every down player.

on VY. In terms of physical gifts it seems to me we are talking about an Elway (#1, 83), Bo Jackson (#1, 86), or Vick (#1, 01) type transcendent athlete. You might could include McNair (#3--probably overlooked at 1-2 simple because he was small college, 95) and McNabb (#2--no defense for the Browns taking Coach over him, 99) in that company. So long as Young's arm proves in these QBs company you just can't pass him up. He has shown more leadership against the best possible comp without actually playing in the NFL to boot.

finally

In Young, Bush and Leinart I would say it is possible we get the best 3 skill players/prospects on the same board as since 83 when Elway, Dickerson, and Curt Warner were on the board (Warner was a fine lasting NFL player, just not legendary). Other noticeable years with top flight QB/RBs were 89 with Aikman and Sanders at the top, and 99 with McNabb, Edge and Ricky Williams surrounding the 2 terrible top 5 picks in Couch and Akili Smith.

If I were the Texans I'd take Young #1. But if not, trade down for someone who will give their right arm for one of these top 3 skill players. I would not take Bush #1 unless VY totally flops the workouts (fat chance), they can probably get Bush at #3 and surely at #2, maybe the best move is a Ferganson or the best DE/OLB at #4-#6 plus a ton more to a team desperate for that #1.

[SuperS32]

This draft is eerily similar to the '95 draft with Ki Jana Carter, Kerry Collins and Steve Mcnair

[Cire]

Interesting, Bo Jackson tore it up, until the career injury, iirc.

[mateo]

I'd like to see an analysis of 1st round O-linemen vs. 2nd and 3rd round O-linemen.

[Blatz]

...

Any Texan fans please send your emails in for your choice of pic, it does influence management. You can directly email Charlie Casserly at CCasserly@houstontexans.com; and/or fanfeedback@houstontexans.com

Also don't forget to tell him what you think about his ability to spot talent and draft it.

[Summer Song Giver]

Also don't forget to tell him what you think about his ability to spot talent and draft it.

I had to refrain from using the Casserly address in this instance although I might keep it handy for future reference. In other news local man arrested for making terroristic threats via email. Story at 11.

[Luckyazn]

Interesting, if you stay away from Penn State players particularly Rbs, you are way better off.


Isn't Larry Johnson from PENN ST?

[Cohen]

Good analysis DS

[Fegwu]

Great job Desert Scar.

Worth revisiting over and over again.

[IC2000]

Great job Desert Scar.

Worth revisiting over and over again.

In all honesty its a pretty worthless stat. Interesting to see but none of these players have anything to do with what Vince or Bush will accomplish

[Fegwu]

In all honesty its a pretty worthless stat. Interesting to see but none of these players have anything to do with what Vince or Bush will accomplish

To each his own. I understand that none of those players have anything to do with what Vince or Bush will or can accomplish in the NFL but just looking at the 22 years of history at least forces me to pause and ponder.

Now at least I can consider the possible of trading down and picking D'Brick. I do not see that happening though - I am way too Vinced to turn back now :)

[RocketMan Tex]

Jeff George is an "X"?

He is a complete "F" in my book.

[Desert Scar]

In all honesty its a pretty worthless stat. Interesting to see but none of these players have anything to do with what Vince or Bush will accomplish

You are not worth a full response, I know as much from other threads.

To each his own. I understand that none of those players have anything to do with what Vince or Bush will or can accomplish in the NFL but just looking at the 22 years of history at least forces me to pause and ponder.

Now at least I can consider the possible of trading down and picking D'Brick. I do not see that happening though - I am way too Vinced to turn back now :)

I agree you can't make a lot of big observations about VY or RB from these. But a couple of conclusions or possible interpretations:

-There are monumental failures at all positions. They include RBs (Ki-Jana Carter, Blair Thomas), passing QBs (Leaf, Coach), and athlete QBs (Mirer?). And yes even offensive tackles (Tony Mandarich was taken by the Packers #2 after Aikman #1 and Barry Sanders #3, OUCH). So I think the argument that too many QBs, RBs or any position flop is moot. I think we just remember the QB flops more.

-In terms of transcendent athletes I have seen play college ball I have to say from what I have seen they are Hershel Walker, Bo Jackson, Mike Vick, and now Vince Young. From what I hear John Elway (#1) and Roger Staubach (went late because of 4-5 Navy commitmment) should be included, but I can only report second hand. I certainly believe it about Elway because his combination of strength, feet, quickness and arm in his prime were like none I have ever seen play pro football, I just didn't see him play college. Bo Jackson was as gifted an athlete I ever saw, what a shame on that freak injury. Interesting all these guys were slam dunk obvious overall #1s or would have went #1 (Walker went to USFL first thus drafted late or would have been overall #1 and Staubach went late because of 4-5 year Navy commitmment). Unless VY has a lot weaker workouts (weak arm, field sense/mental questions) than to me is very plausible when it is all said and done I don't seen him being picked anywhere but #1 be it by the Texans or someone else.

Isn't Larry Johnson from PENN ST?

The sun shines on even the ugliest of dogs every once in a while.

[superden]

GREAT JOB DS! i would agree with you as well and pick up vince (i guess it doesnt help that im a longhorn..haha)

[jlivz]

-In terms of transcendent athletes I have seen play college ball I have to say from what I have seen they are Hershel Walker, Bo Jackson, Mike Vick, and now Vince Young.

I fail to see how Vince Young is so much more a transcendent athlete than Bush. Young runs well for 6'5" yes, but he has nowhere near the speed or elusiveness as Vick. Young's selling point is his leadership, not his speed. As far as athleticism, I haven't seen anyone explode so quickly or run with as much balance as Bush. Young would be a great pick, and so would Bush, consider me in the "don't care" group. But to say Young is more a transcendental athlete than Bush is preposterous.

[Desert Scar]

....... But to say Young is more a transcendental athlete than Bush is preposterous.

I am not sure which game or season you watched, but one guy had a combination of size, strength, speed and determination like no other. Being a great athlete (particularly in the football sense) is more than just been a great open field guy.

You can compare Bush to Dorsett, Faulk, Eric Metcalf, Ismail, Warrick (Peter or Dunn), Tim Brown and Des Howard athletically off the top of my head. But the only of these guys, Bush included, to have ton of carries and carry an offense were Faulk and Dorsett.

Young ratio of speed/size/strength is just different than any player I can remember, and I have watched a lot of college ball, pretty heavily for 20-25 years. That is why I brought up Walker, Bo Jackson, and Vick. Elway also belongs because when you consider his cannon along with his size, strength and quickness--he also was like no other athletically. And I am just talking football athlete here, setting aside leadership issues which I think are as important of strengths of VY.