UTweezer
11-03-2005, 01:07 PM
To begin with, a selective list of facts:
• In 2004, the Florida Marlins finished in third place.
• In 2003, the Orange County Angels finished in third place.
• In 2001, the New York Mets finished in third place.
AP Photo/Mark Humphrey
Craig Biggio will be 40 years old when next season begins.• In 1999, the San Diego Padres finished in fourth place.
• In 1994, the Toronto Blue Jays finished in third place.
Aside from the obvious, all five of these teams had something else in common: just one season before, they played in the World Series. Three of them won the World Series. The Blue Jays, Angels and Marlins all reached the very pinnacle of professional baseball … and 11 months later, they finished in third place.
I'm bringing this up as a preemptive strike against those of you who are going to think I'm crazy for suggesting that both the White Sox and the Astros might suffer big drop-offs next season. Last week, I argued that if the White Sox aren't serious about improving this winter -- as opposed to simply maintaining the roster that won 110 games in 2005 -- they could well finish third in 2006.
The Astros are in exactly the same boat.
Oh, it's been a wonderful year. But does this look to you like a team with a solid long-term future?
This season, six Astros pitchers accounted for 161 starts.
Roy Oswalt (age 28), Andy Pettitte (33) and Roger Clemens (43) combined for 100 starts, 50 wins, 29 losses and a fantastic 2.42 ERA. We'll call them Group A.
Ezequiel Astacio (25), Wandy Rodriguez (26), and Brandon Backe (27) combined for 61 starts, 23 wins, 24 losses, and a less-than-fantastic 5.24 ERA. We'll call them Group D.
Which is more likely? Group A doing significantly worse next season, or Group D doing significantly better?
As I'm sure you've heard, without their pitching, the Astros would have been lost. They were No. 1 in the National League in runs allowed, and No. 11 in runs scored.
But their pitching will, in all likelihood, be worse next season. Maybe a lot worse. Will they make up for it on the other side of the equation?
Last season, the Astros were blessed with two great hitters (Lance Berkman and Morgan Ensberg), two good ones (Jason Lane and Craig Biggio), and a bunch of stiffs.
I know, that's harsh. It gives me no pleasure to tell this particular truth. But I mean, just look at these guys. Mike Lamb did show some power, but his .284 on-base percentage sometimes made him one of the very worst first basemen in the majors. Chris Burke wouldn't be so bad at second base, his "natural" position, but as a corner outfielder, he's terribly miscast. Adam Everett is 28, and he's got a .305 career on-base percentage. Willy Taveras is touted as a Rookie of the Year candidate, and though he might yet become a fine player some day, right now he's a fast runner with no power and practically zero control of the strike zone (25 walks and 102 strikeouts in 152 games).
Oh, and Biggio turns 40 next month.
I've been wrong about the Astros before. Dead wrong. In 2004, I thought they should have traded Carlos Beltran before August, because they didn't have a chance to come back and make the playoffs. They almost went to the World Series. In 2005, I thought they should have spent the year rebuilding, as of course they would suffer the loss of Jeff Kent and there was no way Roger Clemens could duplicate his brilliant 2004 performance. They went to the World Series.
Twice I've said the Astros should start the rebuilding process, twice they've ignored me, and twice they've wound up within a few breaks of the Big Enchilada. But this time -- seriously, folks -- management needs to take a long, hard look in the mirror and figure out if it wants to stand pat and win 80 games next year, or make some real (i.e., expensive) moves and have a fighting shot at winning 90.
• In 2004, the Florida Marlins finished in third place.
• In 2003, the Orange County Angels finished in third place.
• In 2001, the New York Mets finished in third place.
AP Photo/Mark Humphrey
Craig Biggio will be 40 years old when next season begins.• In 1999, the San Diego Padres finished in fourth place.
• In 1994, the Toronto Blue Jays finished in third place.
Aside from the obvious, all five of these teams had something else in common: just one season before, they played in the World Series. Three of them won the World Series. The Blue Jays, Angels and Marlins all reached the very pinnacle of professional baseball … and 11 months later, they finished in third place.
I'm bringing this up as a preemptive strike against those of you who are going to think I'm crazy for suggesting that both the White Sox and the Astros might suffer big drop-offs next season. Last week, I argued that if the White Sox aren't serious about improving this winter -- as opposed to simply maintaining the roster that won 110 games in 2005 -- they could well finish third in 2006.
The Astros are in exactly the same boat.
Oh, it's been a wonderful year. But does this look to you like a team with a solid long-term future?
This season, six Astros pitchers accounted for 161 starts.
Roy Oswalt (age 28), Andy Pettitte (33) and Roger Clemens (43) combined for 100 starts, 50 wins, 29 losses and a fantastic 2.42 ERA. We'll call them Group A.
Ezequiel Astacio (25), Wandy Rodriguez (26), and Brandon Backe (27) combined for 61 starts, 23 wins, 24 losses, and a less-than-fantastic 5.24 ERA. We'll call them Group D.
Which is more likely? Group A doing significantly worse next season, or Group D doing significantly better?
As I'm sure you've heard, without their pitching, the Astros would have been lost. They were No. 1 in the National League in runs allowed, and No. 11 in runs scored.
But their pitching will, in all likelihood, be worse next season. Maybe a lot worse. Will they make up for it on the other side of the equation?
Last season, the Astros were blessed with two great hitters (Lance Berkman and Morgan Ensberg), two good ones (Jason Lane and Craig Biggio), and a bunch of stiffs.
I know, that's harsh. It gives me no pleasure to tell this particular truth. But I mean, just look at these guys. Mike Lamb did show some power, but his .284 on-base percentage sometimes made him one of the very worst first basemen in the majors. Chris Burke wouldn't be so bad at second base, his "natural" position, but as a corner outfielder, he's terribly miscast. Adam Everett is 28, and he's got a .305 career on-base percentage. Willy Taveras is touted as a Rookie of the Year candidate, and though he might yet become a fine player some day, right now he's a fast runner with no power and practically zero control of the strike zone (25 walks and 102 strikeouts in 152 games).
Oh, and Biggio turns 40 next month.
I've been wrong about the Astros before. Dead wrong. In 2004, I thought they should have traded Carlos Beltran before August, because they didn't have a chance to come back and make the playoffs. They almost went to the World Series. In 2005, I thought they should have spent the year rebuilding, as of course they would suffer the loss of Jeff Kent and there was no way Roger Clemens could duplicate his brilliant 2004 performance. They went to the World Series.
Twice I've said the Astros should start the rebuilding process, twice they've ignored me, and twice they've wound up within a few breaks of the Big Enchilada. But this time -- seriously, folks -- management needs to take a long, hard look in the mirror and figure out if it wants to stand pat and win 80 games next year, or make some real (i.e., expensive) moves and have a fighting shot at winning 90.